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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thursday night PB local elections special

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited March 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thursday night PB local elections special

Tendring has had a very interesting electoral history.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Go George!
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AveryLP said:

    Go George!

    Wake up Avery! You've been dreaming that you're the PM again.

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Telegraph on the 'bedroom tax':

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/9959800/Good-policies-let-down-by-bad-politics.html
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    All quiet tonight.

    The one contest here that looks interesting is Wisbech where the Tory vote migh be hit by Ukip.

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It will be interesting to see the Ukip vote in Lewisham from a standing start. Lets see if and by how much they'll eat into the Labour percentage.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Go George!

    Wake up Avery! You've been dreaming that you're the PM again.

    Carola, I shall retire into my cell and there repose.

    I am quite happy in the cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces,
    the solemn temples and the great globe itself.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Well it is Good Fridays Eve. Plenty people have gone, or are travelling, for an Easter break, so it's bound to be a bit quiet.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2013
    I am so happy to have reached tonight. 10 golden days off.

    I'll try not to think about how many emails I'll come back to a week on Monday.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    Telegraph on the 'bedroom tax':

    Is housing benefit withdrawn for libraries, galleries and music rooms or just for guest bedrooms?
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I'm off to Yorkshire in the morning to do some missionary work. We are spending a few days in Ilkley with my elder daughter and family who have rented a cottage.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited March 2013
    antifrank said:

    I am so happy to have reached tonight. 10 golden days off.

    I'll try not to think about how many emails I'll come back to a week on Monday.

    We are so happy that you've reached tonight as well. You get to a certain age where every new morning is a good morning.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeSmithson said:

    I'm off to Yorkshire in the morning to do some missionary work. We are spending a few days in Ilkley with my elder daughter and family who have rented a cottage.

    Remember not to take a hat, Mike.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in Lewisham. They didn't stand last time and it's not the sort of area they usually do well in, but they might have a chance of beating the Tories despite that.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Tonight marks the end of the first week of Vanilla. It's settled down pretty well though a fair number of posters have yet to sign up.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    antifrank said:

    I am so happy to have reached tonight. 10 golden days off.

    I'll try not to think about how many emails I'll come back to a week on Monday.

    Yes, those were the days when I was email independent. Now emails come straight to my mobile as well. I resolutely do not use my laptop or phone in-flight. The last bastion of civilisation !
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    I'm off to Yorkshire in the morning to do some missionary work. We are spending a few days in Ilkley with my elder daughter and family who have rented a cottage.


    Remember not to take a hat, Mike.

    When you have my hair-cut you always take a hat.

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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    re Mitchell v News Group Newspapers
    The press' most detested media judge, Sir David Eady, has just retired, and has been replaced by Mr Justice Jeremy Baker. The case could of course go to Tugendhat J or another QB judge. But surely there are grounds for staying any action for libel until the active criminal proceedings against officers have been disposed of?
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    AveryLP said:

    Go George!

    Wake up Avery! You've been dreaming that you're the PM again.

    Carola, I shall retire into my cell and there repose.

    I am quite happy in the cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces,
    the solemn temples and the great globe itself.
    All that finding the good in George must be wearing Avery. Rest your troubled brain.

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Paging tim:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-politics/9959850/Samantha-Cameron-A-life-after-No-10.html
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    re Mitchell v News Group Newspapers
    The press' most detested media judge, Sir David Eady, has just retired, and has been replaced by Mr Justice Jeremy Baker. The case could of course go to Tugendhat J or another QB judge. But surely there are grounds for staying any action for libel until the active criminal proceedings against officers have been disposed of?

    What happens if News International signs up to the Royal Charter on press regulation and then offers Andrew Mitchell the services of its arbitral tribunal? If Mitchell refuses, he will be lumbered with The Sun's legal costs regardless of the judgement.

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    How to eat chocolate indefinitely (my life is complete):

    http://i.imgur.com/qjjlkGm.gif
  • Options
    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited March 2013
    @AveryLP
    I am still appalled at you for your vicious slur on the finest Oxford college.
    AveryLP said:

    If NGN sign up to the Royal Charter and the Crime and Courts Bill receives the Royal Assent (excluding the operation of any transitional provisions) then, if either Mitchell or NGN didn't accept the jurisdiction of the arbitral arm, that party would, under normal circumstances, pay the costs of the other side, regardless of event.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    @AveryLP
    I am still appalled at you for your vicious slur on the finest Oxford college.

    I have just noticed that Wadham educated John Wilmot, 2nd Earl of Rochester. He is among my favourite poets. I have always admired libertines.

    But then you do have Melvyn Barg, Michael Foot, Evan Harris and Rowan Williams to account for.

    p.s. Mitchell is unwise pursuing a vendetta against The Sun. It will only end in his tears.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,577
    BBC carries Mitchell vs Sun story

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21969990
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    "This is a local election for local people! There's nothing for you here!"
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Good evening, everyone.

    Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for his Thursday piece.

    On the Sun Vs Mitchell, that's a lefty metropolitan wet dream, because one of the Evil Ones is guaranteed to lose and there's ample excuse to continually refer to the "question of whether or not Mitchell called an officer a pleb" [he didn't].
  • Options
    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited March 2013
    @AveryLP
    FE, Sir John Simon, Michael Foot. Some of the greatest politicians (and jurists) of the twentieth century. At the moment, both the Master of the Rolls and the President of the Family Division are ex-Wadhamites.
    I think the principal effect of Mitchell will be to provide an impetus to resolve the criminal proceedings more speedily.
    Edit: It appears, albeit based on the speculation of journalists, that the action may have been brought because there will be no criminal charges.
  • Options
    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    re @tim
    You might have thought that leaking confidential police and Crown Prosecution Service material relating to the "plebgate" investigation might not be the best idea, on so many levels.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2013
    sounds like there should be an investigation on who leaked this information to the newspapers
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2013
    Basic Allowances for Cllrs in the 3 local authorities voting today

    Tendring: £4,962
    Lewisham: £9,812
    Fenland: £4,531

    The wards are in the Harwich and North Essex, Lewisham Deptford and Cambridgeshire North East constituencies.

    The Tendring and Fenland vacancies are caused by death while the Cllr in Lewisham left to run an orphanage in Togo
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,577
    edited March 2013
    @tim

    You missed a bit:

    "The Crown Prosecution Service has indicated that it is unhappy with the file it has received from the Metropolitan Police and is awaiting more evidence.

    The Metropolitan police refused calls by Keith Vaz, chair of the home affairs select committee, for them to leave the investigation to the police watchdog, the Independent Police Complaints Commission. Vaz said the plebgate affair raised "fundamental questions about police honesty and integrity" and should be investigated independently.

    A spokesman for the CPS said: "We have received initial papers but we have not received a full file of evidence and we now await the conclusion of the police investigation before considering charges."


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/mar/28/lebgate-file-contains-no-evidence-that-police-lied
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    @Sam (FPT)

    We'll need to more than double the prison blocks for your weed policy !
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    This has kindly been republished.The 1983 Labour Manifesto.Inspiring.

    http://socialistunity.com/labour-1983-the-most-inspiring-suicide-note-in-history/#.UVTDgxz_D0c
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    More evidence for a Tory bloodbath in May to be shown in today's locals? Lib dems have to have a chance in Parson, surely?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Given the reports we've seen about the Mitchell affair, which created some quite disgusting implications around the actions of the police, it will prove very very interesting to see why the leaking of info is the apparently the focus from hereon, when to my mind the leaking is far less troubling than what Crick's invesitigation appeared to uncover.
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AET barred from taking over more schools by DfE. Times (£).
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    From the Guardian:

    "Members of the Police Federation in the Midlands are also under investigation for allegedly publicly exploiting the affair as part of their protest against the government's cuts to the police service."

    Again, I know investigation is a lengthy business, nor are things always as they appear, but given evidence we have already seen showing how the above was done, 'allegedly' seems a weak word.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    volcanopete said:

    This has kindly been republished.The 1983 Labour Manifesto.Inspiring.

    http://socialistunity.com/labour-1983-the-most-inspiring-suicide-note-in-history/#.UVTDgxz_D0c

    Talking of the 1983 election, the BBC's election show from that year will be shown on Easter Monday at 10am on BBC Parliament:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/parliament/programmes/schedules/2013/04/01
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "TORIES NOW 7/2 to lose deposit and LIBDEMS are 5/6 Thanks to PADDYPOWER for setting up the market. Doesn't say much for TORIES is they can't make 5% of the vote down from 20% at last election. Might explain why it is being tweeted that TORIES should stand aside for UKIP."
    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    New anti-Euro political party in Germany, Alternative für Deutschland:

    https://www.alternativefuer.de/

    http://www.businessinsider.com/bernd-lucke-alternative-fur-deutschland-interview-on-cyprus-2013-3

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    AndyJS said:

    "TORIES NOW 7/2 to lose deposit and LIBDEMS are 5/6 Thanks to PADDYPOWER for setting up the market. Doesn't say much for TORIES is they can't make 5% of the vote down from 20% at last election. Might explain why it is being tweeted that TORIES should stand aside for UKIP."
    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/

    It is difficult to envisage a situation whereby the Conservative leadership would countenance the idea of standing aside for UKIP, even with as poorly as they will surely do in such a Labour stronghold.

    In fairness, the very fact they have no chance would give many wavering Tories the confidence to vote UKIP that they might not contemplate at a GE, and being at a low ebb in a Labour stronghold gives no encouragement to get out and vote Tory even if one is still mostly loyal. Combined with reasonable decline due to being in government, and bleedage to UKIP, and I would guess losing that deposit is a reasonable bet.

    I do wonder as well whether if the Tories stood aside, the UKIp vote might not gain all that much, as disaffected Labourites return to the fold rather than the Tory proxies (which many already see UKIP as) and rapidly departing LDs steer clear of them given the blatant Tory approval of UKIP (for this contest at least).

    But as many on here often proclaim, it doesn't matter where you finish or how many votes you get in a safe seat for your opponents (Personally that seems short sighted to me, but nevermind), so losing a deposit in such a place is of no concern, apparently.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Where is Ed?

    From the Times
    President Hollande was preparing to retreat from his plan for a supertax on millionaires last night, in a French television appearance intended to reboot his ailing presidency.

    After an unprecedented slump in his ratings, and mounting exasperation over what detractors say is his woolly style, the beleaguered Socialist is hoping to reconnect with a sceptical nation in a prime-time interview.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    16.2% turnout in Lewisham
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Harwich west: Lab 282 Con 220 Community 163 Lib Dem 143

    Lab Hold
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    It would be insane for the Tories to stand down in favour of the party that's eating their vote - it'd be as if Labour deferred to Respect in the next by-election after Bradford West. Sadly, the Tories are not quite that insane.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Alternativ Fur Deutschland advocates cheap holidays for Germans abroad and a less competitive export market I assume.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    AndyJS said:

    It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in Lewisham. They didn't stand last time and it's not the sort of area they usually do well in, but they might have a chance of beating the Tories despite that.

    Apparently they tied for last place

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2013
    Evelyn
    Lab 918 People Before Profit 404 LD 131 UKIP 119 Con 119
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amusing to see UKIP and Tories getting the same number of votes in Evelyn.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Evelyn:

    Lab 54.3%
    PBP 23.9%
    LD 7.7%
    Con 7.0%
    UKIP 7.0%
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    I don't think Lewisham PBP is the same as Ireland's People Before Profit Alliance. In Ireland, it's an SWP front (c.f. the electoral career of R. Boyd-Barrett T.D.), so it might be the same with your PBP/SWP, or it might be a catchy name.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2013
    EPG

    In Lewisham they used to have something called Socialist Alternative (they won a couple of Cllrs in 2002 and 2006). Now the people involved with SA run joint campaigns with People Before Profit.

    So, they are some variety of trots even in Lewisham
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2013
    The Tories held Parson Drove and Wisbech, St. Mary.

    Con 384 LD 240 UKIP 214 EngDem 33

    Good night
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    They've been negotiating for years, but the India-EU FTA is at risk:

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/india-eu-fta-may-bejeopardy-if-april-15-meeting-fails_844102.html

    This and the US deal are key to showing whether the EU is capable of representing us or not.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Counterintuitive:

    Open plan offices are not popular in Scandinavia and Germany:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21878739
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    49% of Germans think the country would be better off outside the EU

    http://www.euroweeklynews.com/finance/item/113704-germans-asking-if-the-eu-can-ever-succeed
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321
    AndyJS said:

    Counterintuitive:

    Open plan offices are not popular in Scandinavia and Germany:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21878739

    I'm not surprised by that (I've never met anyone who positively liked open-plan offices for themselves) but the article's an interesting read anyway. That Swiss place menitoned towards the end sounds pretty good if you trust your staff not to goof off. Bayer (the chemicals company) goes a bit in that direction - they have fairly standard offices but also open areas with benches etc. where people can go out and think, discuss, etc.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    New poll for Australian general election on 14th September this year:

    Coalition 50%
    ALP 30%
    Green 10%
    Others 10%

    Two-party preferred:

    Coalition 58%
    ALP 42%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013#Party_polling
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    @AndyJS
    It is hardly surprising that the coalition have such a lead after the disaster that last week constituted for the ALP. What Gillard will will be hoping is that a united ALP can regain some support during the federal parliamentary recess, and that will be followed by a knockout budget from Swan (and Hockey's usual antics) when Parliament returns.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @AndyJS

    Time for at least two failed heaves and one successful one against Gillard by then.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    Australian politics discussion forum:

    http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    From the numbers given in the tables, Comrade Hayfield doesn't seem to have grasped the idea of multi-member wards.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2013
    Summary of tonight's results:

    Harwich, Tendring: [Lab hold]
    Lab 282 (34.9%)
    Con 220 (27.2%)
    Community 163 (20.2%)
    LD 143 (17.7%)

    Lewisham, Evelyn: [Lab hold]
    Lab 918 (54.3%)
    PeopleBeforeProfit 404 (23.9%)
    LD 131 (7.7%)
    Con 119 (7.0%)
    UKIP 119 (7.0%)

    Fenland, Parson Drove & Wisbech St. Mary: [Con hold]
    Con 384 (44.1%)
    LD 240 (27.6%)
    UKIP 214 (24.6%)
    EngDem 33 (3.8%)
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Do ANY of the London rugby teams play inside the M25?

    I watched a game at Adams Park (?) in High Wycombe which looks derelict and worthy of immediate demolition, surrounded by snowy meadows and a half hearted parking lot.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Tim B

    Only Harlequins among the top division and London Scottish at the next level down.
This discussion has been closed.