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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news and some potentially worrying news for the SNP in

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news and some potentially worrying news for the SNP in latest TNS Scotland poll

Fewer than 1/3 of Scottish voters sampled by TNS rated the Scottish Government's management of NHS as good pic.twitter.com/MiYFrYMR7u

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • "We don't think the SNP are doing a good job, but will vote for them anyway"

    Well it worked for Labour for decades.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,216
    @ScottyNational: Manifesto : After poll shows having a poorly perceived delivery record doesn't impact votes, SNP manifesto changed to simply read 'Whatever'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,692

    "We don't think the SNP are doing a good job, but will vote for them anyway"

    Well it worked for Labour for decades.

    So you're saying the SNP could face a difficult election in 2045? You may be right.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,736
    Why does the subtitle say "Salmond & Co"?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,713
    Doesn't that graphic indicate just over a third rate SNP management of the NHS as good?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,498
    edited August 2015
    Mr Thompson,

    Curses of new thread.

    Just returned from a visit to Vilnius Central (Boston). Predominantly Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian immigrants, predominantly Catholic, and young. Therefore lots of pressure on school space. But also very family-orientated. However, young men will be young men. Drink driving seems to be their favourite pastime.

    Heard of one family, two parents, both vets, the man working as a lorry driver, the woman labouring in a greenhouse. Both hard-working, but Lithuania is missing two very qualified people and do we need two more relatively unskilled workers (nothing against lorry drivers) when we have unemployed locals?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,713
    Mr. Royale, a deeply unhealthy state of affairs.

    Reminds me a little of Blair's claim that Labour was the political wing of the British people.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,057
    JohnLoony said:

    Why does the subtitle say "Salmond & Co"?

    Quite - what its got to do with a Westminster MP is beyond me.....its very much Nicola's show - and she's doing better than Salmond would have done.....
  • CD13 said:

    Mr Thompson,

    Curses of new thread.

    Just returned from a visit to Vilnius Central (Boston). Predominantly Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian immigrants, predominantly Catholic, and young. Therefore lots of pressure on school space. But also very family-orientated. However, young men will be young men. Drink driving seems to be their favourite pastime.

    Heard of one family, two parents, both vets, the man working as a lorry driver, the woman labouring in a greenhouse. Both hard-working, but Lithuania is missing two very qualified people and do we need two more relatively unskilled workers (nothing against lorry drivers) when we have unemployed locals?

    I believe in a small state and that people are better at living their own lives than the government is dictating how people live their lives. If those workers want to work in the US (or the UK for that matter) then let them. They improve their lives and I believe we're better off too.

    The issue of unemployed locals has sod all to do with immigration and is entirely to do with a small minority of people preferring a life on benefits to grafting and putting in hard work (or being told what to do by a boss). I'd rather tackle that, than attempt to tackle those who are actually wanting to work.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,989
    As per usual, fringe and single-issue parties begin to lose support when it actually comes to the multi-faceted matter of governing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,380
    If all of the SNPers voted Green on the list, they could form the Government and the Opposition!
  • notme said:

    notme said:

    Pulpstar said:

    notme said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000,

    Would it really cut low skilled immigration that much? Don't most Poles and Romanians in the UK work and pay tax?

    They need to earn above £30k before they become a net contributor. How many poles and romanians do you think are earning over that?
    Are you sure that £30k figure is accurate as the marginal figure for an average EU immigrant ? If that is the mean of the UK as a whole then I'd have thought the figure for someone who will spend their whole life mainly here would be higher than an EU immigrant, as the young Pole won't need the NHS and won't be in receipt of a state pension at 65+ ?
    The scale of migration is such that we cant just rely on marginal costs. If you have a payroll system for 500 people, the marginal cost is negligible to add 50 people to it. But when you reach the stage that you have to set up a second payroll you have real costs.

    Another way is think of refuse collection. Your authority has two sets of trucks all doing one round a day. Your system has a bit of give. You collect to 20,000 properties. As the population increases and we have some new estates, the numbers increase to 21,000. Thats fine, you rejig the rounds a little, you pay a bit of overtime, you maybe take on a few casuals. Your costs go up slightly, but not much

    However when households increase to 22,000 however, there is no other option then to get a new team and a new truck.

    Thats the situation we are in with schools, hospitals, highways and housing.

    We are long past the point in which we can squeese more people into existing resources. Immigration is now requiring significant extra expenditure.
    So build more schools, hospitals, housing etc. There are still economies of scale, do we need more nuclear submarines?
    You get no economy of scale if the people who are coming are working for so little they pay no tax, and end up with the same income again in tax credits.
    It is absurd to think that all migrants end up working for so little. Some may arrive and earn more from the start. Many may earn (relative to the UK average) little upon first arriving and then progress throughout their careers to earn more. Many will have children who earn more. Etc, etc - there is no single rule of thumb that applies to absolutely every person.

    As for tax credits, regardless of migration that is a situation that should be resolved anyway. The old tax credit system is completely broken and is being reformed and should be regardless of migration and its effects.
  • Seems somebody is trying to back Corbyn on betfair with £5k... Do they know something?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,031
    Mortimer said:

    As per usual, fringe and single-issue parties begin to lose support when it actually comes to the multi-faceted matter of governing.

    Exactly , Tories and Lib Dems almost extinct and Labour heading the same way. You could not make it up and the SNP are doing it deliberately, policies that people actually want , who would have thought that was a good idea.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,813
    edited August 2015

    Seems somebody is trying to back Corbyn on betfair with £5k... Do they know something?

    YouGov poll in the field since last week.

    It might be published tonight or tomorrow or not at all.

    There was a similar price move just prior to the publication of the last poll.
  • Seems somebody is trying to back Corbyn on betfair with £5k... Do they know something?

    YouGov poll in the fieldwork since last week.

    It might be published tonight or tomorrow or not at all.

    There was a similar price move just prior to the publication of the last poll.
    I was suspecting that might be so. They could have at least drip fed in £5k... Seems a bit suspicious all in one go.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    To be honest, all successful parties try to claim that after periods of dominance with no strong opposition. In 1992 the Conservatives were "The Natural Party of Government" and Labour "The Natural party of Opposition".

    My only observation on the SNP is the one I made about the Conservatives a few days ago - the bigger you try to make the tent the more likely it is to collapse. Oddly enough, the most successful strategy isn't to try to please everyone but simply to continue to please enough people.

    On the question of migration and immigration, here in East Ham I see it up close and personal every day. There are any number of solutions - there's the Calais solution, the Lampedusa solution and the solution in places like Mauritania and Eritrea. There's the short-term solution and the long-term solution - it's the absence of long-term co-ordinated thinking in Britain, Europe and elsewhere that's the immediate problem.

    There is a profound and growing disconnection between London and other parts of England. I don't see immigration or migration as a "problem" apart from the challenge to transport and educational capacities. I get more annoyed by groups of tourists ambling round the City in the rush hour clogging up the tubes but that's my problem, not theirs. London is evolving rapidly and by even 2030 will look very different and more global than, I would argue, anywhere else in the rest of the UK. Just a note also in the City bars the languages you hear are as often French and German - the influx of financial and other business professionals from the EU to the City isn't to be forgotten.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,168

    Seems somebody is trying to back Corbyn on betfair with £5k... Do they know something?

    Aren't they betting he'll lose?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,598
    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)
  • stodge said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    To be honest, all successful parties try to claim that after periods of dominance with no strong opposition. In 1992 the Conservatives were "The Natural Party of Government" and Labour "The Natural party of Opposition".
    Judging by the way the Labour Party has performed post-Blair and the way the Labour Party now tends to view Blair (or Blairites) as a Conservative (or closet Conservatives) ... was that wrong?

  • rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    There's also the British retirees etc who are emigrating to Spain as well as people returning.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,366
    Is JEO Socrates? I hope so, I'd missed him being around.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,598

    Is JEO Socrates? I hope so, I'd missed him being around.

    No he's not. I wish @Socrates was still around too.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 493

    Seems somebody is trying to back Corbyn on betfair with £5k... Do they know something?

    Aren't they betting he'll lose?
    No they are putting £5k up for someone to lay. They (the chap with £5k) expect/want him to win.
  • Seems somebody is trying to back Corbyn on betfair with £5k... Do they know something?

    Aren't they betting he'll lose?
    The £5k is available to match as a lay. So betting he'll win. Fairly sure I've got that the right way round, or I am having a slow Monday.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,666
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    @rcs1000 apologies if it has been done but can I congratulate you on the govt's take-up of your (part) solution to the Calais crisis in going after the employers.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,168
    Icarus said:

    Seems somebody is trying to back Corbyn on betfair with £5k... Do they know something?

    Aren't they betting he'll lose?
    No they are putting £5k up for someone to lay. They (the chap with £5k) expect/want him to win.
    Of course. thx. Long day at the office...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,598
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    @rcs1000 apologies if it has been done but can I congratulate you on the govt's take-up of your (part) solution to the Calais crisis in going after the employers.

    It will have a greater effect on migrant numbers, with a lower cost to the economy than the other options proposed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,366
    Noted conspiracy theorist headbanger General Michael Flynn, former director of intelligence for the US Joint Special Operations Command says that the US made a decision to stand by and let ISIS flourish as it helped them to accomplish their aims in Syria: http://www.rt.com/usa/312050-dia-flynn-islamic-state/

    Fetch the tinfoil...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    My point on the previous thread was wouldn't this mean that they need to earn LESS to be considered a net contributor than say a non EU immigrant who is looking to permanently locate here, or a 'native'... being they'll need the NHS/state pension pot less ?

    I'm not as in favour of immigration as yourself, but the arguments should be well formed on both sides.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938


    To be honest, all successful parties try to claim that after periods of dominance with no strong opposition. In 1992 the Conservatives were "The Natural Party of Government" and Labour "The Natural party of Opposition".

    Judging by the way the Labour Party has performed post-Blair and the way the Labour Party now tends to view Blair (or Blairites) as a Conservative (or closet Conservatives) ... was that wrong?


    My thinking (which is hardly original) is parties win power from opposition in one of two ways. They either move to the electorate (Blair, Cameron) or hope/make the electorate move to them (Thatcher).

    More than any other politician since the war, Margaret Thatcher had to argue and convince even sceptical Party colleagues (and that was before the electorate) her ideas were right. Sometimes they were (privatisation), sometimes they weren't (Poll Tax). However, she was unwavering once she had decided and to this observer seemed almost to revel in the unpopularity and took her greatest pleasure in winning the argument and being vindicated by events.

    My view on Corbyn, for example, is for all his emotion now, he is much more a Wilson than a Foot in that he will be able to keep Labour together far better than many assume but the pragmatism to do that will neither a) satisfy his current adherents nor b) convince the electorate. He might well be damned for who and what he is but that will be much easier than being damned for who and what he isn't.

    His big opportunity is or could be the MacMillan dictum "events, dear boy, events". I don't know what's going to happen between now and 2019-20 but I would be surprised if there were not at least one (or more than one) serious problem or crisis for the Government which may or may not be self-inflicted and from which they will suffer a shorter or longer-term fall in popularity. At that point, when a disillusioned electorate is prepared to listen, Labour has to have the alternative plan in place - something they woefully failed to deliver to take advantage of the Coalition's mid-term in 2012-13.

  • The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,598
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    My point on the previous thread was wouldn't this mean that they need to earn LESS to be considered a net contributor than say a non EU immigrant who is looking to permanently locate here, or a 'native'... being they'll need the NHS/state pension pot less ?

    I'm not as in favour of immigration as yourself, but the arguments should be well formed on both sides.
    Yes:

    I'd also point out that the UK has seen a lot of PIIGS immigration in the last couple of years that is simply a consequence of high unemployment in these countries, and young people in particular have decided that a couple of years working at Pret in London, or cleaning apartments, or bricklaying is more fun than trying to get a job in Dublin or Rome.

    As unemployment is now falling in most of the PIIGS (Spain's unemployment fell by 80,000 last month, at the same time the labour market increased by 50,000 - so net job creation of c. 130,000), we can expect fewer young people to come here, and quite a few to go back. The situation is similar in Ireland, although the numbers are smaller.

    These people who came here will, as @isam and others have pointed out, have impacted the cost and availability of housing, as well as putting pressure on wage rates. Although, on the other side of the coin, they will have increased the availability of plumbers and cleaners - and mostly paid tax.

    My biggest concern is to make sure we have a system based around economics, and the free market and not around the decisions of bureaucrats to decide what skills we need. (We'd be importing Cobol programmers if civil servants were to start putting quotas in place.) Far better - as the Adam Smith institute has pointed out - to have a £50k bill for new immigrants.

    Companies would foot it for talented individuals. Really ambitious, smart people would borrow the money if they thought they could make it here.

    Those who could only ever aspire to minimum wage jobs would not be able to afford the premium. And taxes for the rest of us would be lower if 200,000 people a year (0.3% of the population, to put in context) payed £50k each.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Andrew "Thrasher" Mitchell should pick his arguments more carefully. Complaining about the use of offensive language is quite amusing.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-tory-accuses-david-cameron-6228647
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,057
    On topic - is there any polling on awareness of which areas are devolved? the 'neither good nor bad' could simply reflect ignorance over Scottish government responsibility....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,216

    On topic - is there any polling on awareness of which areas are devolved? the 'neither good nor bad' could simply reflect ignorance over Scottish government responsibility....

    Obviously, things that are BRILLIANT are devolved, things that are crap are ALL WESTMONSTER'S FAULT
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,057
    edited August 2015
    stodge said:


    To be honest, all successful parties try to claim that after periods of dominance with no strong opposition. In 1992 the Conservatives were "The Natural Party of Government" and Labour "The Natural party of Opposition".

    Judging by the way the Labour Party has performed post-Blair and the way the Labour Party now tends to view Blair (or Blairites) as a Conservative (or closet Conservatives) ... was that wrong?
    However, she was unwavering once she had decided and to this observer seemed almost to revel in the unpopularity and took her greatest pleasure in winning the argument and being vindicated by events.
    Two great quotes - one her own:

    'Mrs Thatcher, how do you feel about being isolated among the 12?'

    'It doesn't matter if the other 11 are wrong'

    And Matthew Parrish, observing how she 'wades on, doing a lot of other people's dirty work, and not caring that she gets the blame'.....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,872
    I'm not sure those management questions are that poor for the SNP. I would imagine a lot of people who answer "Neither" are essentially saying: "we're not happy with the state of the economy/NHS/education, but we blame Westminster for that rather than the SNP".
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Been to check out George's "Northern Powerhouse" today. You need a hard hat just to walk round Manchester. Very impressed. Particularly like the improvements to the old Victoria Station.
    I hope David Cameron is not staying at the Midland Hotel during the party conference, as St Peter's Square is just a massive building site.

    Just read Harriet Harman's comments in The Spectator, that she didn't want Margaret Thatcher, "the witch" to cast her eyes on her baby. What an utterly, utterly disgusting comment. These people are so full of bile and hate, it's beyond comprehension.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,031

    The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.

    LOL, in power 8 years , polling at 62% and you think its superficial.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,872
    Scott_P said:

    On topic - is there any polling on awareness of which areas are devolved? the 'neither good nor bad' could simply reflect ignorance over Scottish government responsibility....

    Obviously, things that are BRILLIANT are devolved, things that are crap are ALL WESTMONSTER'S FAULT
    Well, if I was asked this question about my local (Labour) council, I would probably answer "Neither". Answering "Good" would imply that I was happy with the state of local services, which I'm not. But I don't blame the council for the poor state of them, I think they're making the best of the hand dealt to them by an ideological Austerity-obsessed central government.
  • Did the Grantham to Nottingham line for the first time this morning, and then on from there to Long Eaton (got to Birmingham via Derby). Nottingham station has a reasonably impressive façade. Saw the NET trams too from platform level, but didn't have time to play on them - maybe next time :)

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986
    edited August 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    My point on the previous thread was wouldn't this mean that they need to earn LESS to be considered a net contributor than say a non EU immigrant who is looking to permanently locate here, or a 'native'... being they'll need the NHS/state pension pot less ?

    I'm not as in favour of immigration as yourself, but the arguments should be well formed on both sides.
    Yes:

    I'd also point out that the UK has seen a lot of PIIGS immigration in the last couple of years that is simply a consequence of high unemployment in these countries, and young people in particular have decided that a couple of years working at Pret in London, or cleaning apartments, or bricklaying is more fun than trying to get a job in Dublin or Rome.

    As unemployment is now falling in most of the PIIGS (Spain's unemployment fell by 80,000 last month, at the same time the labour market increased by 50,000 - so net job creation of c. 130,000), we can expect fewer young people to come here, and quite a few to go back. The situation is similar in Ireland, although the numbers are smaller.

    These people who came here will, as @isam and others have pointed out, have impacted the cost and availability of housing, as well as putting pressure on wage rates. Although, on the other side of the coin, they will have increased the availability of plumbers and cleaners - and mostly paid tax.

    My biggest concern is to make sure we have a system based around economics, and the free market and not around the decisions of bureaucrats to decide what skills we need. (We'd be importing Cobol programmers if civil servants were to start putting quotas in place.) Far better - as the Adam Smith institute has pointed out - to have a £50k bill for new immigrants.

    Companies would foot it for talented individuals. Really ambitious, smart people would borrow the money if they thought they could make it here.

    Those who could only ever aspire to minimum wage jobs would not be able to afford the premium. And taxes for the rest of us would be lower if 200,000 people a year (0.3% of the population, to put in context) payed £50k each.
    It's not all one way.

    Miss Middle-sized Brooke starts her career in Ireland next month.

    Her graduate programme has placed her in Waterford.

    As she's a civil engineer she's working on a building site in Ireland.

    I rather enjoyed the irony.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,031
    calum said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
    Calum, the blind on here will not believe you, they know the SNP are bad and unpopular, really.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,031
    Scott_P said:

    On topic - is there any polling on awareness of which areas are devolved? the 'neither good nor bad' could simply reflect ignorance over Scottish government responsibility....

    Obviously, things that are BRILLIANT are devolved, things that are crap are ALL WESTMONSTER'S FAULT
    LOL, Scott has actually got it for once.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938

    Been to check out George's "Northern Powerhouse" today. You need a hard hat just to walk round Manchester. Very impressed. Particularly like the improvements to the old Victoria Station.

    How do you know any of these developments have anything to do with George Osborne ? There's plenty of construction going on everywhere and (at least in London) plenty of cheap Romanian and Bulgarian labour to do the work thanks to immigration.

    As for the tired old cliche of cracking down on illegals working here, I'm sure that announcement occurs every few months. It's just a bit of propaganda so the Government can convince a sceptical public it's actually doing something.

    The border police and immigration authorities are very active in East Ham. A few months ago they raided a Tamil run hairdresser's near where Mrs Stodge and I reside. A number of staff were marched off and the premises closed. Within three hours it had re-opened with a new set of hairdressers. When I asked the owner he shrugged his shoulders and said "it happens".



  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    Scott_P said:

    On topic - is there any polling on awareness of which areas are devolved? the 'neither good nor bad' could simply reflect ignorance over Scottish government responsibility....

    Obviously, things that are BRILLIANT are devolved, things that are crap are ALL WESTMONSTER'S FAULT
    I think you're starting to get the picture !!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986

    Been to check out George's "Northern Powerhouse" today. You need a hard hat just to walk round Manchester. Very impressed. Particularly like the improvements to the old Victoria Station.
    I hope David Cameron is not staying at the Midland Hotel during the party conference, as St Peter's Square is just a massive building site.

    Just read Harriet Harman's comments in The Spectator, that she didn't want Margaret Thatcher, "the witch" to cast her eyes on her baby. What an utterly, utterly disgusting comment. These people are so full of bile and hate, it's beyond comprehension.

    Avery ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,216
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, in power 8 years , polling at 62% and you think its superficial.

    Except they claim they are not in power. Every time something goes wrong, they claim to be powerless.

    Nationalism is populist, and can be popular. Hitler won elections, but it doesn't make for good Government.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,216
    A new political party has been created to take up the cause of Scottish independence after its founding members decided the SNP wasn’t pro-independence enough.

    The Scottish Independence party, known as SIP, was created last week after it was revealed that the SNP has no current plans to discuss independence or a second referendum at its conference in October.

    The SIP will attempt to capitalise on disillusionment within sections of the SNP membership, some of whom have recently quit the party over concerns it has lost sight of the ultimate aim of independence since last September’s referendum.

    SIP founder Coinneach Mac Eachain told BuzzFeed News he hoped to field candidates in every seat in Scotland for next May’s Holyrood election and reclaim the cause of independence from the SNP.
    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/declaring-independence-from-the-snp
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,031
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, in power 8 years , polling at 62% and you think its superficial.

    Except they claim they are not in power. Every time something goes wrong, they claim to be powerless.

    Nationalism is populist, and can be popular. Hitler won elections, but it doesn't make for good Government.
    Confirms you have never looked at the Scotland Act , 95% powers retained is powers reserved.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,713
    Mr. P, the Scottish People's Front splitting from the The People's Front of Scotland seems bloody odd to me, given the success the SNP has enjoyed.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @LadyBucket

    'Just read Harriet Harman's comments in The Spectator, that she didn't want Margaret Thatcher, "the witch" to cast her eyes on her baby'

    What else do you expect from that revolting woman,she spends her entire political career fighting against grammar schools and then sends her son to one miles away from of her constituency.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,031
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, in power 8 years , polling at 62% and you think its superficial.

    Except they claim they are not in power. Every time something goes wrong, they claim to be powerless.

    Nationalism is populist, and can be popular. Hitler won elections, but it doesn't make for good Government.
    So you are trying to imply that the SNP are like the Nazis then.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, in power 8 years , polling at 62% and you think its superficial.

    Except they claim they are not in power. Every time something goes wrong, they claim to be powerless.

    Nationalism is populist, and can be popular. Hitler won elections, but it doesn't make for good Government.
    So you are trying to imply that the SNP are like the Nazis then.
    Impossible

    the Nazis had better songs and snazzier uniforms.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    MP_SE said:

    Andrew "Thrasher" Mitchell should pick his arguments more carefully. Complaining about the use of offensive language is quite amusing.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-tory-accuses-david-cameron-6228647

    The Guardianista Conservatives on here will hate every Tory MP soon if they carry on telling the truth about the Calais migrant crisis like this
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986

    Mr. P, the Scottish People's Front splitting from the The People's Front of Scotland seems bloody odd to me, given the success the SNP has enjoyed.

    The article refers to Tommy Sheridan's Pro-Independence Scottish Scoialists. Great acronym.
  • The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.

    How well is Corbyn doing in Scotland?

    Any evidence?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,031

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, in power 8 years , polling at 62% and you think its superficial.

    Except they claim they are not in power. Every time something goes wrong, they claim to be powerless.

    Nationalism is populist, and can be popular. Hitler won elections, but it doesn't make for good Government.
    So you are trying to imply that the SNP are like the Nazis then.
    Impossible

    the Nazis had better songs and snazzier uniforms.
    LOL,
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,130
    If the public aren't that impressed with the services they're receiving but the SNP is at 62% in the polls, the logical conclusion is that many voters aren't casting their votes at present on the basis of the quality of the administration.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 860
    isam said:

    MP_SE said:

    Andrew "Thrasher" Mitchell should pick his arguments more carefully. Complaining about the use of offensive language is quite amusing.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-tory-accuses-david-cameron-6228647

    The Guardianista Conservatives on here will hate every Tory MP soon if they carry on telling the truth about the Calais migrant crisis like this
    Guardianista Conservative is an oxymoron, or better yet just a moron.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,713
    Mr. Brooke, it does seem apt.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited August 2015

    The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.

    How well is Corbyn doing in Scotland?

    Any evidence?
    Corbyn's Glasgow rally sold out before it was even advertised.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986

    The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.

    How well is Corbyn doing in Scotland?

    Any evidence?
    Corbyn's Glasgow rally sold before it was even advertised.
    What ? That's even better than Eck's book !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,216
    malcolmg said:

    So you are trying to imply that the SNP are like the Nazis then.

    No

    I was merely pointing out that while Nationalism in all its forms is a negative and destructive political ideology, as history has shown, people still vote for it if their sense of grievance is tickled in just the right place.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,216

    the Nazis had better songs and snazzier uniforms.

    And nicer weather
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041

    The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.

    Before Corbyn could take the fight to the SNP, he would fist need to destroy and rebuild SLAB. Currently we have the SLAB favourite, Kezia Dugdale, help John McT & co fight alongside Liz Kendal in Blairism's last stand. Kezia is not even planning on meeting Corbyn when he visits Scotland for his 4 city tour, which says it all I guess.

    Since the Tory wipeout in Scotland, SLAB has spent the last 30 years fighting among itself and has lost the ability to provide any sort of opposition to the SNP. As far as I can tell putting aside John McT's carpet bombing of twitter with anti-Corbyn and ABC messages, SLAB's opposition to the SNP consists of constantly retweeting around 20 boilerplate tweets.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Pauly said:

    isam said:

    MP_SE said:

    Andrew "Thrasher" Mitchell should pick his arguments more carefully. Complaining about the use of offensive language is quite amusing.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-tory-accuses-david-cameron-6228647

    The Guardianista Conservatives on here will hate every Tory MP soon if they carry on telling the truth about the Calais migrant crisis like this
    Guardianista Conservative is an oxymoron, or better yet just a moron.
    Yes they do seem to be morons
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Cameron backs Hammond's comments on migrants

    "David Cameron says migrants are “threatening” border staff to break into Britain, and refused to criticise his Foreign Secretary for describing them as “marauding”.

    The Prime Minister’s official spokesman made the comments after being questioned about whether Mr Cameron supported Philip Hammond’s description.

    Asked about Mr Hammond’s use of the word “marauding” on Monday morning, Mr Cameron’s official spokesman refused to criticise him, saying: “The PM would focus on the practical steps we should be taking.

    “It is a fact that there have been tens, if not more of migrants, around the tunnel entrance at Coquelle every night seeking to threaten people there and to break through our fences and to enter the UK illegally.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11794089/David-Cameron-Migrants-threatening-border-staff-in-bid-to-break-into-Britain.html
  • The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.

    How well is Corbyn doing in Scotland?

    Any evidence?
    Corbyn's Glasgow rally sold before it was even advertised.
    What ? That's even better than Eck's book !
    Eck's autobiography sold like Mein Kampf in 1930's Germany. Corbyn's rally will be no Nuremburg, so he's not in the ex-FM's league.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    BBC - Two police officers face misconduct hearings over the "plebgate" affair involving ex-chief whip Andrew Mitchell, the police watchdog has said.

    Insp Ken Mackaill and Det Sgt Stuart Hinton are accused of gross misconduct over accounts they gave of a meeting with Mr Mitchell, and could be sacked if the disciplinary charges are proved.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33854227

    Plebgate rumbles on - Presumably these are the police federation officers who cut short the meeting to brief the press.

    Good job Mitchell taped the proceedings which caught out the lying swine.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    calum said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
    It seems the SNP supporter tactics of insinuating that anyone who doesn't support their party is someone a 'traitor' seems to be working.

    FWIW, I think the only way back for unionist parties up there now is a total divorce from the UK HQs and a new name, leader and distinctive Scottish platform for Westminster.

    Particularly in the case of the Conservatives, that will have to include going against a choice one or two of the UK Conservative's priorities, and generally caucusing on the rest when it's in "Scotland's interest".

    And that has to be real and meaningful, and not token.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,542

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    My point on the previous thread was wouldn't this mean that they need to earn LESS to be considered a net contributor than say a non EU immigrant who is looking to permanently locate here, or a 'native'... being they'll need the NHS/state pension pot less ?

    I'm not as in favour of immigration as yourself, but the arguments should be well formed on both sides.
    Yes:

    I'd also point out that the UK has seen a lot of PIIGS immigration in the last couple of years that is simply a consequence of high unemployment in these countries, and young people in particular have decided that a couple of years working at Pret in London, or cleaning apartments, or bricklaying is more fun than trying to get a job in Dublin or Rome.

    As unemployment is now falling in most of the PIIGS (Spain's unemployment fell by 80,000 last month, at the same time the labour market increased by 50,000 - so net job creation of c. 130,000), we can expect fewer young people to come here, and quite a few to go back. The situation is similar in Ireland, although the numbers are smaller.

    These people who came here will, as @isam and others have pointed out, have impacted the cost and availability of housing, as well as putting pressure on wage rates. Although, on the other side of the coin, they will have increased the availability of plumbers and cleaners - and mostly paid tax.


    Companies would foot it for talented individuals. Really ambitious, smart people would borrow the money if they thought they could make it here.

    Those who could only ever aspire to minimum wage jobs would not be able to afford the premium. And taxes for the rest of us would be lower if 200,000 people a year (0.3% of the population, to put in context) payed £50k each.
    It's not all one way.

    Miss Middle-sized Brooke starts her career in Ireland next month.

    Her graduate programme has placed her in Waterford.

    As she's a civil engineer she's working on a building site in Ireland.

    I rather enjoyed the irony.
    Plumbers are skilled, time served trades. They're not unskilled labourers.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited August 2015

    calum said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
    It seems the SNP supporter tactics of insinuating that anyone who doesn't support their party is someone a 'traitor' seems to be working.

    FWIW, I think the only way back for unionist parties up there now is a total divorce from the UK HQs and a new name, leader and distinctive Scottish platform for Westminster.

    Particularly in the case of the Conservatives, that will have to include going against a choice one or two of the UK Conservative's priorities, and generally caucusing on the rest when it's in "Scotland's interest".

    And that has to be real and meaningful, and not token.
    I went to see Matt Forde interview Jim Murphy last month and Murphy said the tactics you describe were unbeatable at the GE
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    notme said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    For @JEO, the there is data on median ages of EU immigrants, and it ranges from 24 for Spain to something in the mid 30s for somewhere Northern European (I forget which country). Most of the Eastern European countries had median ages below 30.

    As an aside, year to date, we now have negative immigration from both Spain and Ireland. (I.e., more people are going back there than are arriving.)

    My point on the previous thread was wouldn't this mean that they need to earn LESS to be considered a net contributor than say a non EU immigrant who is looking to permanently locate here, or a 'native'... being they'll need the NHS/state pension pot less ?

    I'm not as in favour of immigration as yourself, but the arguments should be well formed on both sides.
    Yes:

    I'd also point out that the UK has seen a lot of PIIGS immigration in the last couple of years that is simply a consequence of high unemployment in these countries, and young people in particular have decided that a couple of years working at Pret in London, or cleaning apartments, or bricklaying is more fun than trying to get a job in Dublin or Rome.

    As unemployment is now falling in most of the PIIGS (Spain's unemployment fell by 80,000 last month, at the same time the labour market increased by 50,000 - so net job creation of c. 130,000), we can expect fewer young people to come here, and quite a few to go back. The situation is similar in Ireland, although the numbers are smaller.

    These people who came here will, as @isam and others have pointed out, have impacted the cost and availability of housing, as well as putting pressure on wage rates. Although, on the other side of the coin, they will have increased the availability of plumbers and cleaners - and mostly paid tax.


    Companies would foot it for talented individuals. Really ambitious, smart people would borrow the money if they thought they could make it here.

    Those who could only ever aspire to minimum wage jobs would not be able to afford the premium. And taxes for the rest of us would be lower if 200,000 people a year (0.3% of the population, to put in context) payed £50k each.
    It's not all one way.

    Miss Middle-sized Brooke starts her career in Ireland next month.

    Her graduate programme has placed her in Waterford.

    As she's a civil engineer she's working on a building site in Ireland.

    I rather enjoyed the irony.
    Plumbers are skilled, time served trades. They're not unskilled labourers.
    Neither are Bricklayers!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,692

    BBC - Two police officers face misconduct hearings over the "plebgate" affair involving ex-chief whip Andrew Mitchell, the police watchdog has said.

    Insp Ken Mackaill and Det Sgt Stuart Hinton are accused of gross misconduct over accounts they gave of a meeting with Mr Mitchell, and could be sacked if the disciplinary charges are proved.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33854227

    Plebgate rumbles on - Presumably these are the police federation officers who cut short the meeting to brief the press.

    Good job Mitchell taped the proceedings which caught out the lying swine.

    About time too.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,975
    rcs1000 said:

    Is JEO Socrates? I hope so, I'd missed him being around.

    No he's not. I wish @Socrates was still around too.
    Doesn't Plato speak for Socrates? ;-)
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041

    calum said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
    It seems the SNP supporter tactics of insinuating that anyone who doesn't support their party is someone a 'traitor' seems to be working.

    FWIW, I think the only way back for unionist parties up there now is a total divorce from the UK HQs and a new name, leader and distinctive Scottish platform for Westminster.

    Particularly in the case of the Conservatives, that will have to include going against a choice one or two of the UK Conservative's priorities, and generally caucusing on the rest when it's in "Scotland's interest".

    And that has to be real and meaningful, and not token.
    Fair to say I don't think anyone is being coerced into supporting the SNP. Most of the political commentators on Scotland are reduced to publishing "clickbait" articles about the SNP/Scotland with ridiculous headlines and content which quite often contradicts itself.

    I think you're right that the Scottish wings need to become truly independent. The Scottish LibDems are already an independent party, I think they'll be lucky to win a couple of Holyrood seats and will likely face further losses in the May 2017 council elections. It will be interesting to see whether the LibDems can rebuild by 2020 - at least they have a good structure already in place - now all they need is policies and good candidates not tainted by the coalition:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Liberal_Democrats
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,170

    Mr. Royale, a deeply unhealthy state of affairs.

    Reminds me a little of Blair's claim that Labour was the political wing of the British people.

    Blair stated that as an ambition, not a claim. If anything, that made it even more chilling. I have little doubt that the SNP's ascendancy will also pass. Opposition always finds a way.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,170
    calum said:

    calum said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
    It seems the SNP supporter tactics of insinuating that anyone who doesn't support their party is someone a 'traitor' seems to be working.

    FWIW, I think the only way back for unionist parties up there now is a total divorce from the UK HQs and a new name, leader and distinctive Scottish platform for Westminster.

    Particularly in the case of the Conservatives, that will have to include going against a choice one or two of the UK Conservative's priorities, and generally caucusing on the rest when it's in "Scotland's interest".

    And that has to be real and meaningful, and not token.
    Fair to say I don't think anyone is being coerced into supporting the SNP. Most of the political commentators on Scotland are reduced to publishing "clickbait" articles about the SNP/Scotland with ridiculous headlines and content which quite often contradicts itself.

    I think you're right that the Scottish wings need to become truly independent. The Scottish LibDems are already an independent party, I think they'll be lucky to win a couple of Holyrood seats and will likely face further losses in the May 2017 council elections. It will be interesting to see whether the LibDems can rebuild by 2020 - at least they have a good structure already in place - now all they need is policies and good candidates not tainted by the coalition:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Liberal_Democrats
    The Scottish Lib Dems should be good for two seats: Shetland and one Highlands list. After that it gets harder.

    Across much of the country though they seem near non-existant and it's not easy to see an obvious route back.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,872
    edited August 2015



    The Scottish Lib Dems should be good for two seats: Shetland and one Highlands list. After that it gets harder.

    Across much of the country though they seem near non-existant and it's not easy to see an obvious route back.

    The Lib Dems actually held up shockingly well this year in many of their former Scottish seats - Jo Swinson and Mike Crockart actually increased their vote, for example. But admittedly it's hard to tell how much of that was genuine Lib Dem support, and how much was personal vote for incumbents and/or tactical votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,736
    If an election were held tomorrow the SNP would certainly increase their majority and win a landslide. However, the election is just under a year away and a key factor will be whether the SNP includes indyref2 in its manifesto. If it does then that could well lead to tactical voting by the unionist parties on the constituency vote. If it does not, then that will infuriate many nationalist diehards who could stay at home.

    If Corbyn becomes Labour leader and Macintosh leader of SLAB that would also provide a much tougher challenge for the SNP than they presently face
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805
    Pity they didn't ask about the most important issue in Scottish politics. Like if you forgot to ask about the UK government performance on the economy.

    Anyway, all opinion polls should be taken with not just small grains, but large pillars, of salt.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,592
    Danny565 said:

    The Lib Dems actually held up shockingly well this year in many of their former Scottish seats - Jo Swinson and Mike Crockart actually increased their vote, for example. But admittedly it's hard to tell how much of that was genuine Lib Dem support, and how much was personal vote for incumbents and/or tactical votes.

    Absolutely shocking, Mr Danny!!! Though why should it not?

    It´s also had to tell how much of the SNP vote was "anti-Coalition with the Tories", and how much was tactical anti-London. Perhaps it is best to interpret votes on their face value, and not bother too much about interpreting what the voters meant.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,792
    isam said:

    calum said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
    It seems the SNP supporter tactics of insinuating that anyone who doesn't support their party is someone a 'traitor' seems to be working.

    FWIW, I think the only way back for unionist parties up there now is a total divorce from the UK HQs and a new name, leader and distinctive Scottish platform for Westminster.

    Particularly in the case of the Conservatives, that will have to include going against a choice one or two of the UK Conservative's priorities, and generally caucusing on the rest when it's in "Scotland's interest".

    And that has to be real and meaningful, and not token.
    I went to see Matt Forde interview Jim Murphy last month and Murphy said the tactics you describe were unbeatable at the GE
    Well, they were certainly unbeatable by him. Since he very evidently wanted the job and thought he was up to it, the 6 months Murphy was SLab leader must have been a very steep learning curve.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Scott_P said:

    the Nazis had better songs and snazzier uniforms.

    And nicer weather
    And they had Hitler. Hitler was a better leader than Churchill, better looking than Churchill and a better painter than Churchill. Hitler was a great painter - one apartment, two coats, one afternoon!
  • Just a reminder that there's only 2 days left on BBC I player to listen to last Thursdays TMS. Blowers has just seen Rogers out on my pc currently...again. The warm up pre the start is delicious knowing what is to come, they said broad needed to step up and was fancied to...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,575

    Just a reminder that there's only 2 days left on BBC I player to listen to last Thursdays TMS. Blowers has just seen Rogers out on my pc currently...again. The warm up pre the start is delicious knowing what is to come, they said broad needed to step up and was fancied to...

    I was at Trent Bridge, saw 40 mins cricket, saw England win the Test and the Ashes. It will be something we will never forget.. What not to like?? 20 miles of roadworks each way south of Leicester with not a soul doing a stroke of work. Utterly disgraceful.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    If an election were held tomorrow the SNP would certainly increase their majority and win a landslide. However, the election is just under a year away and a key factor will be whether the SNP includes indyref2 in its manifesto. If it does then that could well lead to tactical voting by the unionist parties on the constituency vote. If it does not, then that will infuriate many nationalist diehards who could stay at home.

    If Corbyn becomes Labour leader and Macintosh leader of SLAB that would also provide a much tougher challenge for the SNP than they presently face

    Well the issue with the SNP is not that they do a good job, it's that there is no other political party in scotland for people to vote for.
    Labour, the Tories and the LD have dissolved as political entities, they are ex-parties.

    Charles Kennedy had a good idea of creating a new left wing political party in scotland after the GE, sadly he died before he had a chance.
  • The SNP: A Warning From History.

    Episode 1: "2007 - Helped into Power"

    Narrated by Sam West.

    http://www.tvguide.co.uk/detail/41065/110189998/the-nazis-a-warning-from-history#.VcjyvE3bKUk
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    LOL, in power 8 years , polling at 62% and you think its superficial.

    Except they claim they are not in power. Every time something goes wrong, they claim to be powerless.

    Nationalism is populist, and can be popular. Hitler won elections, but it doesn't make for good Government.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 160
    antifrank said:

    If the public aren't that impressed with the services they're receiving but the SNP is at 62% in the polls, the logical conclusion is that many voters aren't casting their votes at present on the basis of the quality of the administration.

    Or that they don't believe the opposition would provide better services. I suspect that's a huge factor.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    In a strict sense, people do not want good government.

    People want competent and adequate government. The important answer in polls like this is the "neither good nor bad" result. You get a high "neither good nor bad" and inertia alone guarantees continued governance because people don't vote for change unless things are "bad".
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    edited August 2015

    isam said:

    calum said:

    It seems the SNP are becoming increasingly successful at equating political support for their party with expressing Scottish cultural identity.

    Whether that will hold for the long term, or not, remains to be seen.

    Digging into the demographics the SNP's current support levels amongst the folks aged 16 to 55 are headed to the 65 to 70% level. Once you strip out the 15% of folks not born in Scotland (10% E&W, 5% elsewhere), who voted around 70% NO and 30% YES at the Indyref, the SNP's hitting above 70% amongst Scottish born voters.

    Given the SNP's increasing dominance, the mainstream parties and the MSM need to dramatically alter their tactics. I know many on this site get very irritated at folks equating the SNP with Scotland, however this is now becoming a reality - the more the MSM and Westminster parties wail and gnash their teeth the worse things are going to get for them.
    It seems the SNP supporter tactics of insinuating that anyone who doesn't support their party is someone a 'traitor' seems to be working.

    FWIW, I think the only way back for unionist parties up there now is a total divorce from the UK HQs and a new name, leader and distinctive Scottish platform for Westminster.

    Particularly in the case of the Conservatives, that will have to include going against a choice one or two of the UK Conservative's priorities, and generally caucusing on the rest when it's in "Scotland's interest".

    And that has to be real and meaningful, and not token.
    I went to see Matt Forde interview Jim Murphy last month and Murphy said the tactics you describe were unbeatable at the GE
    Well, they were certainly unbeatable by him. Since he very evidently wanted the job and thought he was up to it, the 6 months Murphy was SLab leader must have been a very steep learning curve.
    I think Murphy is showing himself up with this revisionist the SNP were unbeatable bull***t - it was him and McT and McD who were briefing against Lamont:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2766342/Labour-crisis-Scotland-Leadership-fighting-erupts-Jim-Murphy-poll-position-replace-Johann-Lamont.html

    Here we go:

    " Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont is facing a growing leadership crisis amid claims that Jim Murphy is plotting her downfall this week. The party is bracing itself for more in-fighting and soul-searching following last week's referendum, and the Scottish Daily Mail revealed yesterday that former Scottish Secretary Mr Murphy is already being lined up as the next leader. "

    It was Murphy and his Blairite buddies backed up by Chris Deerin, Alan C, Iain M etc - who hounded Lamont out of office - triggering the killer "Branch Office" quote.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    stodge said:

    Been to check out George's "Northern Powerhouse" today. You need a hard hat just to walk round Manchester. Very impressed. Particularly like the improvements to the old Victoria Station.

    How do you know any of these developments have anything to do with George Osborne ? There's plenty of construction going on everywhere and (at least in London) plenty of cheap Romanian and Bulgarian labour to do the work thanks to immigration.

    ....

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/booming-manchester-set-outperform-berlin-9522458
    ''A report - called ‘Beyond the City’ - put employment growth at 3.8 per cent in Manchester between 2015-2020, outpacing some of the world’s leading capital cities.
    This includes the French capital which is on track for 1.7 per cent growth; Berlin at one per cent and Tokyo which is lagging behind on -0.7 per cent.''
    ''Experts at Oxford Economics say Manchester has performed incredibly well over the last five years and does not look set to rest on its laurels.
    Since 2010, Manchester has seen an overall growth in employment of 68,154 which makes it the seventh best employment hotspot in the UK.''
    ''The UK’s national productivity is expected to rise 10.7 per cent driving disposable income up 12.4 per cent in total over the next five years
    530,000 new ‘knowledge economy’ jobs are forecast be created in the UK: 330,000 in professional services and 200,000 in digital and creative
    Manchester is in the top ten fastest growth areas in the UK for professional services with a 14 per cent hike in growth expected
    Trafford will grow even faster – at 15 per cent – and create 3,870 new jobs in the professional services sector between 2015 and 2020''

    I think Osborne and his 21st Century Conservatives deserve some credit.
    The North is not being neglected and Greater Manchester is in line for significant devolution.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,736
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If an election were held tomorrow the SNP would certainly increase their majority and win a landslide. However, the election is just under a year away and a key factor will be whether the SNP includes indyref2 in its manifesto. If it does then that could well lead to tactical voting by the unionist parties on the constituency vote. If it does not, then that will infuriate many nationalist diehards who could stay at home.

    If Corbyn becomes Labour leader and Macintosh leader of SLAB that would also provide a much tougher challenge for the SNP than they presently face

    Well the issue with the SNP is not that they do a good job, it's that there is no other political party in scotland for people to vote for.
    Labour, the Tories and the LD have dissolved as political entities, they are ex-parties.

    Charles Kennedy had a good idea of creating a new left wing political party in scotland after the GE, sadly he died before he had a chance.
    If Corbyn wins the Labour leadership then SLAB will effectively be a new party. Also, don't forget almost 50% voted for Labour, the Tories and the LDs in May, if the SNP push for indyref2 tactical voting by unionist voters next year at the constituency level is inevitable
  • rullkorullko Posts: 160
    edited August 2015
    isam said:

    I went to see Matt Forde interview Jim Murphy last month and Murphy said the tactics you describe were unbeatable at the GE

    Yeah, I think I'd say that too if I had that calamity on my CV. It's the equivalent of Yes voters arguing that people wanted to vote for independence but were conned by the Vow.

    Murphy has come rather late to the view that no one could have stopped the SNP, given that in January he claimed he was wiping the floor with them.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    So you are trying to imply that the SNP are like the Nazis then.

    No

    I was merely pointing out that while Nationalism in all its forms is a negative and destructive political ideology, as history has shown, people still vote for it if their sense of grievance is tickled in just the right place.
    Shouldn't you be busy then campaigning against hard line Blood and Soil Nationalists like the Tories?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    2016 ALERT

    Trump's lead nationally and in Iowa are increasing after the debate and the Megan Kelly "blood comments":

    http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trumps-lead-grows-after-debate-controversy/

    Trump 32%
    Bush 11%
    Carson 9%
    Walker 6%
    Rubio 6%
    Paul 5%
    Cruz 4%
    Huckabee 4%
    Christie 4%
    Fiorina 3%


    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-still-leads-in-iowa-fiorina-on-fire-paul-tanking.html

    Trump 19%
    Carson 12%
    Walker 12%
    Bush 11%
    Fiorina 10%
    Cruz 9%
    Huckabee 6%
    Rubio 6%
    Paul 3%
    Kasich 3%

    The amazing thing is that Trump now has 3 times the vote share of his closest rival nationally.
    And there is no AV to save the bacon of Bush, unlike in the Labour party contest this is FPTP.
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