The YouGov poll isn't a surprise, frankly. There have been plenty of indications.
Looks like we may be treated not only to the Labour Party choosing just about the most unelectable MP they have as leader, but also doing so in such a way as to maximise the recriminations and the lack of legitimacy, yet with a sufficient mandate (on paper at least) to make it extremely hard to chuck him out.
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
They couldn't give a toss.
They're more upset by the destruction of their base in Scotland, and telling the English electorate what they think of them, than winning power.
No, as most of them live in Camden and Islington and are more likely to have been to Cuba than Nuneaton and Stourbridge!
This is actually probably the truth.
Not really. My marginal CLP nominated Corbyn by a clear margin. The data suggests that the least keen are in Labou (and even there he's ahead).'s Northern strongholds.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
The YouGov poll isn't a surprise, frankly. There have been plenty of indications.
Looks like we may be treated not only to the Labour Party choosing just about the most unelectable MP they have as leader, but also doing so in such a way as to maximise the recriminations and the lack of legitimacy, yet with a sufficient mandate (on paper at least) to make it extremely hard to chuck him out.
Today's revelation that the count/results will be a secret was the icing on the icing on the cake..
The YouGov poll isn't a surprise, frankly. There have been plenty of indications.
Looks like we may be treated not only to the Labour Party choosing just about the most unelectable MP they have as leader, but also doing so in such a way as to maximise the recriminations and the lack of legitimacy, yet with a sufficient mandate (on paper at least) to make it extremely hard to chuck him out.
The 35 MPs who nominated him are going to become legends...
Does anyone have any indications as to how a post-corbyn-victory substantial decline in opinion polling could set in motion his removal? Is the party leader removal mechanism launched by MPs? If it is it'll look very very bad especially considering how most MPs didn't even want to nominate him...
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
Winning isn't important according to leading Corbynite, Brian Eno, among many others.
Brian Peter George St. John le Baptiste de la Salle Eno ? That one? I'm guessing they have a pretty narrow definition of who perpetrates human rights definitions as well.
@DAaronovitch: Can it really be true that the Labour Party is weeks away from electing Don Quixote and Sancho Panza to lead it?
"to dream the impossible dream..."
I am so jubilant at the moment. Finally, the Labour party is to be destroyed, or at least turned into the rump socialist party it ought to be. Our thanks goes to UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and now of course the thousands who have chipped in £3 to help finish the job.
Peter Hitchen's prophecy is coming true! I always thought the Tories would be the first ones to go though...
Prime Minister's Questions in the Autumn is going to be fun.
I don't think it will be fun for Cameron... Can't imagine Corbyn being the slightest bit bothered by juvenile attempts to get soundbites/crack jokes... And unlike ed he seems to have genuine conviction that GE will put before media popularity
Prime Minister's Questions in the Autumn is going to be fun.
I don't think it will be fun for Cameron... Can't imagine Corbyn being the slightest bit bothered by juvenile attempts to get soundbites/crack jokes... And unlike ed he seems to have genuine conviction that GE will put before media popularity
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
He would scrap trident and withdraw from nato and cosy up to Putin. This should endear him to most of the virulent kippers as well.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
He would scrap trident and withdraw from nato and cosy up to Putin. This should endear him to most of the virulent kippers as well.
How is scrapping Trident a reason to vote against the SNP? That's SNP policy already.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
Well if you believe the turnips like HYUFD he is somehow going to regain Labour's dominance by moving them into the far left spectrum already occupied by the Greens, Solidarity and the SSP.
It's all pure fantasy from anyone connected to Labour in Scotland at the moment.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
So what, incumbency means nothing at the moment, as Scotland has just proved, there is an anti establishment mood across the western world, the Tories are irrelevant in Scotland and a Corbyn Labour would be left of the SNP. Obviously Corbyn offers a more anti austerity agenda than even Sturgeon offers, hence challenging the SNP's whole raison d'etre in the Central Belt
The Times say most of the polling in the Labour leadership election will take place in the next week. So not much time for Burnham (or anyone else) to turn this around
Prime Minister's Questions in the Autumn is going to be fun.
I don't think it will be fun for Cameron... Can't imagine Corbyn being the slightest bit bothered by juvenile attempts to get soundbites/crack jokes... And unlike ed he seems to have genuine conviction that GE will put before media popularity
Cameron will have plenty of quotes from senior Labour figures laying into Corbyn.
On a betting note, I agree with @TheWhiteRabbit that there must, surely, be some backwash into the London mayoral election (and the Labour selection). It's inconceivable that the tsunami of loony leftism has been confined just to the leadership selection. Plus we can now be very sure that, whatever the leadership result, the Labour Party is going to be in massive disarray in the lead-up to 2016. Backing Zac, as our pale furry friend suggests, is one way to play that; maybe laying Tessa is another.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
Well if you believe the turnips like HYUFD he is somehow going to regain Labour's dominance by moving them into the far left spectrum already occupied by the Greens, Solidarity and the SSP.
It's all pure fantasy from anyone connected to Labour in Scotland at the moment.
Exactly, its a case at best of closing the barn door after the horse has bolted. Maybe a Corbyn-led Labour would have not lost Scotland to the SNP (not guaranteed) but it's already happened. Unless Corbyn has a Tardis he can't just undo the loss of Scotland by being even more anti-Tory, he needs to be positively anti-SNP and get the public to be positively anti-SNP. Don't see that happening.
The Times say most of the polling in the Labour leadership election will take place in the next week. So not much time for Burnham (or anyone else) to turn this around
My memory is that Mr Smithson posted a copy of his GE postal vote. Can I respectfully ask if he intends to do the same with his Corbyn vote?
The YouGov poll isn't a surprise, frankly. There have been plenty of indications.
Looks like we may be treated not only to the Labour Party choosing just about the most unelectable MP they have as leader, but also doing so in such a way as to maximise the recriminations and the lack of legitimacy, yet with a sufficient mandate (on paper at least) to make it extremely hard to chuck him out.
The 35 MPs who nominated him are going to become legends...
...as will Miliband, for concocting an entryist's dream voting system...
Are Corbyn supporters aware of the sort of constituencies where the next election will be decided? Places like Gloucester, Worcester, Swindon, Nuneaton, Crawley, Milton Keynes, Stourbridge, etc.
They couldn't give a toss.
They're more upset by the destruction of their base in Scotland, and telling the English electorate what they think of them, than winning power.
No, as most of them live in Camden and Islington and are more likely to have been to Cuba than Nuneaton and Stourbridge!
This is actually probably the truth. Which is why Labour are finished.
On Youtube I've just watched the Honda advert ("to dream the impossible dream") and now I'm on to The Final Countdown.
Labour won't be finished, they were not finished even in 1983 and the LDs are in a far weaker position now than then. However Corbyn would have little appeal in English marginals, agreed
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
So what, incumbency means nothing at the moment, as Scotland has just proved, there is an anti establishment mood across the western world, the Tories are irrelevant in Scotland and a Corbyn Labour would be left of the SNP. Obviously Corbyn offers a more anti austerity agenda than even Sturgeon offers, hence challenging the SNP's whole raison d'etre in the Central Belt
Scotland has proved nothing of a kind, incumbency still means a hell of a lot. If your reason for voting is "not Tory" then you vote for the incumbent. The SNP won not because incumbency is irrelevant but by having both a pro-SNP and anti-Labour message; not just a "not Tory" one that Labour had used as a crutch for too long.
If you want to vote against the Tories the only logical party to vote for now is the SNP. Previously it was Labour. For Labour to win being not the Tories is not enough. They need people to want to vote against the SNP too.
Prime Minister's Questions in the Autumn is going to be fun.
I don't think it will be fun for Cameron... Can't imagine Corbyn being the slightest bit bothered by juvenile attempts to get soundbites/crack jokes... And unlike ed he seems to have genuine conviction that GE will put before media popularity
Cameron will have plenty of quotes from senior Labour figures laying into Corbyn.
On a betting note, I agree with @TheWhiteRabbit that there must, surely, be some backwash into the London mayoral election (and the Labour selection). It's inconceivable that the tsunami of loony leftism has been confined just to the leadership selection. Plus we can now be very sure that, whatever the leadership result, the Labour Party is going to be in massive disarray in the lead-up to 2016. Backing Zac, as our pale furry friend suggests, is one way to play that; maybe laying Tessa is another.
You think that will bother him??! He wants Blair up at The Hague!
Surely Cameron has to stay on if he's up against Corbyn:
1) Because he would be certain to win 2) Because he can't risk the country being destroyed if Corbyn faces an unpopular Con leader
And even if he only did 2 more years and retired in 2022 he would beat Maggie's time as PM and go down as one of the greatest PM's of all time - much to the irritation of most people on here!
You think that will bother him??! He wants Blair up at The Hague!
It won't bother Corbyn at all, but it will give Cameron an easy response to any question he asks, and allow him to exploit the disunity on the opposition benches.
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
But SLAB will still be under the Blairite Dugdale or the Brownite MacIntosh and there is no real distinction outside of the political commentariate between a Blairite and a Brownite. Corbyn doesn't change this.
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
On a betting note, I agree with @TheWhiteRabbit that there must, surely, be some backwash into the London mayoral election (and the Labour selection). It's inconceivable that the tsunami of loony leftism has been confined just to the leadership selection. Plus we can now be very sure that, whatever the leadership result, the Labour Party is going to be in massive disarray in the lead-up to 2016. Backing Zac, as our pale furry friend suggests, is one way to play that; maybe laying Tessa is another.
As a London Labour member I've not noticed nearly as much political emphasis in the selection - in Islington North we nominated Tessa over Diane Abbott. It's more like the deputy leadership race, which is being conducted on personalities, since there isn't an obvious big difference in policies.
Is it still the case that a significant percentage of Labour members live in London? Which might go a long way to explain how that metropolitan elite is driving the Corbyn lead!
A significant % certainly, but I'd guess the surge is floating all boats and if anything reducing the London edge - certainly Broxtowe has had a flood of new members. Also, Corbyn's vote is strongest among lower-income members and weakest (though still clearly ahead) among ABC1s.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
Well if you believe the turnips like HYUFD he is somehow going to regain Labour's dominance by moving them into the far left spectrum already occupied by the Greens, Solidarity and the SSP.
It's all pure fantasy from anyone connected to Labour in Scotland at the moment.
Exactly, its a case at best of closing the barn door after the horse has bolted. Maybe a Corbyn-led Labour would have not lost Scotland to the SNP (not guaranteed) but it's already happened. Unless Corbyn has a Tardis he can't just undo the loss of Scotland by being even more anti-Tory, he needs to be positively anti-SNP and get the public to be positively anti-SNP. Don't see that happening.
Yes. Not least because there is nothing much for the SNP to do in their big expensive pretentious building and they are not exactly rushing forward to take on any real responsibility - like collecting the money they profess to want to spend.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
The real problem that the SNP has is maintaining a reputation for competence. At the moment, Police Scotland, set up by the SNP is in danger of imploding in the recriminations being laid at the feet of the SNP appointed Chief Constable. The NHS in Scotland is in imminent danger of collapse due to a lack of staff and doctors. The Scottish Ambulance Service is severely under funded while the 999 service is under pressure due to a lack of trained staff. Ironically, the new Queen Elizabeth hospital in Glasgow (aka the Death Star, Betty's, Brenda's) which is supposed to bring kudos to the SNP has brought about chaos to the health system due to turnover in dealing with patients out running the capability of the back up services to deal with them.
The SNP must be praying for a mild winter with no, absolutely no unforeseen circumstances or else there will be a lot of anger expressed against them in the polling booths next year. No one likes to discover that their idols are just gold plated on tin and not solid 24 carat.
The real problem that the SNP has is maintaining a reputation for competence. At the moment, Police Scotland, set up by the SNP is in danger of imploding in the recriminations being laid at the feet of the SNP appointed Chief Constable. The NHS in Scotland is in imminent danger of collapse due to a lack of staff and doctors. The Scottish Ambulance Service is severely under funded while the 999 service is under pressure due to a lack of trained staff. Ironically, the new Queen Elizabeth hospital in Glasgow (aka the Death Star, Betty's, Brenda's) which is supposed to bring kudos to the SNP has brought about chaos to the health system due to turnover in dealing with patients out running the capability of the back up services to deal with them.
The SNP must be praying for a mild winter with no, absolutely no unforeseen circumstances or else there will be a lot of anger expressed against them in the polling booths next year. No one likes to discover that their idols are just gold plated on tin and not solid 24 carat.
And yet despite the pliant Loyalist media repeating these hyperbolic claims over and over again, it's having no impact.
Because none of it is true. The SHS is running great, providing a great service and the SNP rating is massively high. Remember for an incumbent government Neither Good Nor Bad is a positive endorsement.
People don't agree with the hyperbole. They don't see reality match the picture being painted by the media and the SNP Bad brigade. People are not all morons. They understand that change has teething problems and accept it.
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
So what, incumbency means nothing at the moment, as Scotland has just proved, there is an anti establishment mood across the western world, the Tories are irrelevant in Scotland and a Corbyn Labour would be left of the SNP. Obviously Corbyn offers a more anti austerity agenda than even Sturgeon offers, hence challenging the SNP's whole raison d'etre in the Central Belt
Scotland has proved nothing of a kind, incumbency still means a hell of a lot. If your reason for voting is "not Tory" then you vote for the incumbent. The SNP won not because incumbency is irrelevant but by having both a pro-SNP and anti-Labour message; not just a "not Tory" one that Labour had used as a crutch for too long.
If you want to vote against the Tories the only logical party to vote for now is the SNP. Previously it was Labour. For Labour to win being not the Tories is not enough. They need people to want to vote against the SNP too.
And why did the SNP have an anti-Labour message, because it was based on an anti-New Labour message that is why, if Corbyn becomes more Old Labour than the SNP can ever be the whole narrative changes again.
In Scotland the Tories are irrelevant and have one seat, if you want to oppose UK Tories you may well vote Corbyn Labour which has a strong anti austerity and tax the rich message, indeed far stronger than Sturgeon could promise. It is no secret the SNP have made clear the leader they most fear is Corbyn
If Labour did collapse, would the SNP stand in English constituencies? England to become New Scotland!
No, because they would have to finally defend their own territory, Corbyn is the only candidate who poses a threat to the SNP
No he doesn't. The SNP hold the power of incumbency now, if you want to keep out the Tories then the incumbent vote is to vote SNP now.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
Well if you believe the turnips like HYUFD he is somehow going to regain Labour's dominance by moving them into the far left spectrum already occupied by the Greens, Solidarity and the SSP.
It's all pure fantasy from anyone connected to Labour in Scotland at the moment.
He will eat into the SNP's central belt vote, why have Diet socialism when you can have full on Corbyn socialism?
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
But SLAB will still be under the Blairite Dugdale or the Brownite MacIntosh and there is no real distinction outside of the political commentariat between a Blairite and a Brownite. Corbyn doesn't change this.
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
Hilarious. I hope you are right. What a cheeky chappie you are. You are beginning to remind me of that Dick Emery character - 'you are awful'
Scotland has proved nothing of a kind, incumbency still means a hell of a lot. If your reason for voting is "not Tory" then you vote for the incumbent. The SNP won not because incumbency is irrelevant but by having both a pro-SNP and anti-Labour message; not just a "not Tory" one that Labour had used as a crutch for too long.
If you want to vote against the Tories the only logical party to vote for now is the SNP. Previously it was Labour. For Labour to win being not the Tories is not enough. They need people to want to vote against the SNP too.
And why did the SNP have an anti-Labour message, because it was based on an anti-New Labour message that is why, if Corbyn becomes more Old Labour than the SNP can ever be the whole narrative changes again.
In Scotland the Tories are irrelevant and have one seat, if you want to oppose UK Tories you may well vote Corbyn Labour which has a strong anti austerity and tax the rich message, indeed far stronger than Sturgeon could promise. It is no secret the SNP have made clear the leader they most fear is Corbyn
What anti-Labour message?
The SNP never campaigned or made an anti-Labour message. The anti-Labour messages came from two sources - The Labour Party itself "we haven't been good enough", "we've let people down", "we're changing" and from the voters "I didn't leave Labour, Labour left me".
The SNP only really had one message in terms of the headline - vote SNP for the best deal for Scotland. And that message worked and it was successful and by all indications it is very much the way Scotland still thinks which is why they've grown their VI from 49% to 62% in three months.
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
But SLAB will still be under the Blairite Dugdale or the Brownite MacIntosh and there is no real distinction outside of the political commentariate between a Blairite and a Brownite. Corbyn doesn't change this.
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
Corbyn has a clear net positive rating in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK where it is negative, MacIntosh has gravitas, they would pose a real threat to the SNP
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
But SLAB will still be under the Blairite Dugdale or the Brownite MacIntosh and there is no real distinction outside of the political commentariate between a Blairite and a Brownite. Corbyn doesn't change this.
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
Corbyn has a clear net positive rating in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK where it is negative, MacIntosh has gravitas, they would pose a real threat to the SNP
Corbyn can have a 100% positive rating and he still won't get a vote from the SNP because he doesn't offer a reason to change from a now established voting behaviour.
As for MacIntosh having gravitas, we'll see how much gravitas he has when he's hiding in a sandwich shop like his indentikit clone Iain Gray. I'm still not convinced they're different people.
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
But SLAB will still be under the Blairite Dugdale or the Brownite MacIntosh and there is no real distinction outside of the political commentariate between a Blairite and a Brownite. Corbyn doesn't change this.
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
Corbyn has a clear net positive rating in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK where it is negative, MacIntosh has gravitas, they would pose a real threat to the SNP
What was the Scottish sample size and margin of error?
Scotland has proved nothing of a kind, incumbency still means a hell of a lot. If your reason for voting is "not Tory" then you vote for the incumbent. The SNP won not because incumbency is irrelevant but by having both a pro-SNP and anti-Labour message; not just a "not Tory" one that Labour had used as a crutch for too long.
If you want to vote against the Tories the only logical party to vote for now is the SNP. Previously it was Labour. For Labour to win being not the Tories is not enough. They need people to want to vote against the SNP too.
And why did the SNP have an anti-Labour message, because it was based on an anti-New Labour message that is why, if Corbyn becomes more Old Labour than the SNP can ever be the whole narrative changes again.
In Scotland the Tories are irrelevant and have one seat, if you want to oppose UK Tories you may well vote Corbyn Labour which has a strong anti austerity and tax the rich message, indeed far stronger than Sturgeon could promise. It is no secret the SNP have made clear the leader they most fear is Corbyn
What anti-Labour message?
The SNP never campaigned or made an anti-Labour message. The anti-Labour messages came from two sources - The Labour Party itself "we haven't been good enough", "we've let people down", "we're changing" and from the voters "I didn't leave Labour, Labour left me".
The SNP only really had one message in terms of the headline - vote SNP for the best deal for Scotland. And that message worked and it was successful and by all indications it is very much the way Scotland still thinks which is why they've grown their VI from 49% to 62% in three months.
The whole message was 'Red Tories Out', under Corbyn Labour becomes redder than it has been for decades.
The SNP's 'deal for Scotland' was to hold the balance of power, failed, and to lead the campaign against austerity, on which it could now find itself outflanked by Corbyn
Adam Bienkov @AdamBienkov 8m8 minutes ago Big similarities between Labour attacks on Corbyn now and failed attempts to stop Livingstone in 2000. Some of the same people involved too.
Prime Minister's Questions in the Autumn is going to be fun.
I don't think it will be fun for Cameron... Can't imagine Corbyn being the slightest bit bothered by juvenile attempts to get soundbites/crack jokes... And unlike ed he seems to have genuine conviction that GE will put before media popularity
I can see that. Corbyn might not appeal electorally to the public despite being a refreshing change of pace but he's also a type of opponent Cameron has not really had to face, the same skill set may not transfer as well.
Corbyn is probably capable of winning about 8.5 million votes, the same as Michael Foot in 1983. That's a lot of votes but it's still a landslide defeat. The problem is it's easy for 8.5 million people to spend the next five years telling each other via social media that they're heading for victory at an election.
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
But SLAB will still be under the Blairite Dugdale or the Brownite MacIntosh and there is no real distinction outside of the political commentariate between a Blairite and a Brownite. Corbyn doesn't change this.
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
Corbyn has a clear net positive rating in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK where it is negative, MacIntosh has gravitas, they would pose a real threat to the SNP
What was the Scottish sample size and margin of error?
Corbyn had a net positive rating in Scotland a net negative in England and Wales, that is hardly surprising regardless of quibbles of sample size (of which in a UK wide yougov Scotland would represent its normal subsample)
@DAaronovitch: Can it really be true that the Labour Party is weeks away from electing Don Quixote and Sancho Panza to lead it?
Can it be there is method in the madness? I've always scoffed at the "the public are tired of the samey political elites' stuff because then we go ahead and elect those people anyway, but sometimes you get those odd moments of major change.
Fun times ahead if he does win - either much better than expected and so enthralling, or an entertaining trainwreck. Let's keep the Tories honest either way, no skating by unnoticed in the chaos.
The SNP's whole narrative was that Labour had abandoned their roots and forgotten what they stood for. Mihari's much heralded speech included the line about how she didn't leave the Labour party, but that it had left her. Labour's position under Corbyn would very much call people's bluff in Scotland, whether it would lead to a revival or even any difference at all without the nationalism element remains to be seen, but at least Labour would know. It's clearly the optimum strategy in Scotland compared to being under Blairite Murphy.
But SLAB will still be under the Blairite Dugdale or the Brownite MacIntosh and there is no real distinction outside of the political commentariate between a Blairite and a Brownite. Corbyn doesn't change this.
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
Corbyn has a clear net positive rating in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK where it is negative, MacIntosh has gravitas, they would pose a real threat to the SNP
Corbyn can have a 100% positive rating and he still won't get a vote from the SNP because he doesn't offer a reason to change from a now established voting behaviour.
As for MacIntosh having gravitas, we'll see how much gravitas he has when he's hiding in a sandwich shop like his indentikit clone Iain Gray. I'm still not convinced they're different people.
Well he's obviously not going to win nat diehards in the Highlands is he, but in the Central belt he may well win back some traditional old Labour voters who have switched to the SNP. Macintosh is far brighter than Gray
Prime Minister's Questions in the Autumn is going to be fun.
I don't think it will be fun for Cameron... Can't imagine Corbyn being the slightest bit bothered by juvenile attempts to get soundbites/crack jokes... And unlike ed he seems to have genuine conviction that GE will put before media popularity
I can see that. Corbyn might not appeal electorally to the public despite being a refreshing change of pace but he's also a type of opponent Cameron has not really had to face, the same skill set may not transfer as well.
What a pair of sad daft apeths you both are. The Times Leader gives a pretty adequate but damning summary of Corbyn. The pair of you will grow to love him I'm sure. He is a friend of Putin after all.
"Rubbish, the precedent set was that Westminster had the final say on whether to allow a referendum or not.
Time for a lesson in reserved powers?"
The rubbish is all yours. Try to imagine a Westminster Government successfully opposing a referendum placed in an SNP mandate and supported by the people of Scotland.
Oh sure, Westminster could delay it, but it would happen, and then unionism would be swept aside by an infuriated electorate convinced that a Tory Government with one MP in Scotland had tried to crush Scottish democracy.
Even if 2020 was in the bag for the Tories, which even now it surely is bit certain, it's not exactly removing the chance for labour recovery for evermore. The Tories are not competent enough to gets one party state no party is, not even the SNP eventually.
Corbyn is probably capable of winning about 8.5 million votes, the same as Michael Foot in 1983. That's a lot of votes but it's still a landslide defeat. The problem is it's easy for 8.5 million people to spend the next five years telling each other via social media that they're heading for victory at an election.
Foot at least has some experience in government and had previously stood for leader and was deputy leader and had actually been elected by a majority of MPs and not (if polls true) like Corbyn by a swarm of entryists. To repeat - Foot was actually wanted by a parliamentary party majority. Corbyn is not and on top of that is a pigmy compared to Foot. Who knows what vote he will get in the GE. Indeed will he actually criticise the IRA? In fact never mind the IRA, will he would he criticise anyone opposed to the closed shop? NATO Trident IRA Terrorists Putin.... well just what kind of voter is he after if he wants to break 8.5 million?
Just watched Liz K's YouTube video. The closest thing to a positive comment on the first page is basically "well at least she enables comments on her videos, unlike Burnham, who's even worse than her".
Just watched Liz K's YouTube video. The closest thing to a positive comment on the first page is basically "well at least she enables comments on her videos, unlike Burnham, who's even worse than her".
Be dazzled by my frantic keyboard work, while I admire my smug reflection in the monitor, while you listen to my self-aggrandizing spiel...
"Rubbish, the precedent set was that Westminster had the final say on whether to allow a referendum or not.
Time for a lesson in reserved powers?"
The rubbish is all yours. Try to imagine a Westminster Government successfully opposing a referendum placed in an SNP mandate and supported by the people of Scotland.
Oh sure, Westminster could delay it, but it would happen, and then unionism would be swept aside by an infuriated electorate convinced that a Tory Government with one MP in Scotland had tried to crush Scottish democracy.
There is no enthusiasm for indyref2 right now in Scotland and No still narrowly leads polls for a second referendum anyway
Just watched Liz K's YouTube video. The closest thing to a positive comment on the first page is basically "well at least she enables comments on her videos, unlike Burnham, who's even worse than her".
Be dazzled by my frantic keyboard work, while I admire my smug reflection in the monitor, while you listen to my self-aggrandizing spiel...
The way she nods along approvingly to her own narration was a particularly nice touch.
"I want you to be part of a winning team." LOLZ 8%
Just watched Liz K's YouTube video. The closest thing to a positive comment on the first page is basically "well at least she enables comments on her videos, unlike Burnham, who's even worse than her".
Be dazzled by my frantic keyboard work, while I admire my smug reflection in the monitor, while you listen to my self-aggrandizing spiel...
The way she nods along approvingly to her own narration was a particularly nice touch.
"I want you to be part of a winning team." LOLZ 8%
It looked more like an advert for Apple Mac, or some crappy sub-Prime Suspect drama...
No, the SNP and their supporters would very much like Corbyn to 'destroy and rebuild SLAB" rather than take the fight to the SNP before the Holyrood elections or during this Westminster Parliament! If Corbyn wins, its going to be very interesting to watch how the SNP greet and deal with a Labour Leader who actively seems to want to work with them. Might be time to tear up that SNP strategy of trying to replace the Labour party as the main Westminster Opposition on the left and come up with something new to make them appear more relevant after the recess. And because a Corbyn led Labour party is going to suck the media attention away from those on message SNP MP's and their childish antics.
The SNP is regarded as performing even worse on the economy, law and order, and education than its dismal NHS rating. This suggests that its support is pretty superficial. Corbyn's Labour would burst the bubble.
Before Corbyn could take the fight to the SNP, he would fist need to destroy and rebuild SLAB.
If an election were held tomorrow the SNP would certainly increase their majority and win a landslide. However, the election is just under a year away and a key factor will be whether the SNP includes indyref2 in its manifesto. If it does then that could well lead to tactical voting by the unionist parties on the constituency vote. If it does not, then that will infuriate many nationalist diehards who could stay at home.
If Corbyn becomes Labour leader and Macintosh leader of SLAB that would also provide a much tougher challenge for the SNP than they presently face
Well the issue with the SNP is not that they do a good job, it's that there is no other political party in scotland for people to vote for. Labour, the Tories and the LD have dissolved as political entities, they are ex-parties.
Charles Kennedy had a good idea of creating a new left wing political party in scotland after the GE, sadly he died before he had a chance.
If Corbyn wins the Labour leadership then SLAB will effectively be a new party. Also, don't forget almost 50% voted for Labour, the Tories and the LDs in May, if the SNP push for indyref2 tactical voting by unionist voters next year at the constituency level is inevitable
SLAB will not be changed with Corbyn's election.
Kezia is an ABCer. MacIntosh is an ABCer when initially asked about it but has since started making pro-Corbyn noises to try and steal the contest.
But MacIntosh is already on record as a diehard ABCer.
SLAB is a rotten core now. an small active base of Blairites and a larger inactive rump of very old members who send their £20 a year but take no other interest outside their postal vote.
That's it. SLAB won't change if Corbyn wins and Labour won't do any better in Scotland. Armageddon is coming for all the Loyalists.
I'm still on Andy Burnham to win the Labour leadership election (now at better odds as a result of some arbitraging) although I have to acknowledge that Corbyn is mounting a more formidable challenge than I initially thought. Here's the rub with the polling though: While most voters in the survey indicate that they will vote for Corbyn, they rate Burnham as the most likely to win in 2020:
Does that sound familiar? Didn't we recently have an election in which voters at large told us that they were going to vote for Labour but rated Dave as the better PM and stronger on the economy than Ed? I think there is some dissonance at work here and while these voters are more ideological (and thus less inclined to be swayed by electability), I still think that a proportion of Corbynites will balk at the end. Whether it will be enough to get Burnham over the line remains to be seen.
Here we go - what did I say a couple of hours ago ..........
"David Cameron will fight 2020 election, senior Tories believe"
"Senior Conservatives say that they are convinced David Cameron will fight a third general election in 2020 because the “lure of power will be too strong”"
Just watched Liz K's YouTube video. The closest thing to a positive comment on the first page is basically "well at least she enables comments on her videos, unlike Burnham, who's even worse than her".
Be dazzled by my frantic keyboard work, while I admire my smug reflection in the monitor, while you listen to my self-aggrandizing spiel...
The way she nods along approvingly to her own narration was a particularly nice touch.
"I want you to be part of a winning team." LOLZ 8%
It looked more like an advert for Apple Mac, or some crappy sub-Prime Suspect drama...
I liked the Nyman-esque soundtrack too, minimalist, pretentious, repetitive, unsettling, unresolved...
But certainly neither Corbyn or Watson have been known for their loyalty to previous Leaders, or shown any kind of competence when it comes to Leadership or being a team player. Watson certainly has the classic Brownite tendency to hold a grudge too. Just about the only thing they can say is that they are the choice of the Unite Leadership.... That for me is the big story coming out of tonight's YouGov poll.
So Labour will have a Corbyn/Watson team. So far by the evidence of campaigning they are certainly the most competent among those running. It will be interesting to see how they measure up with the other party leaders from now on.
So Labour will have a Corbyn/Watson team. So far by the evidence of campaigning they are certainly the most competent among those running. It will be interesting to see how they measure up with the other party leaders from now on.
Watson's the weak link. He's already had to step down from front / shadow front bench roles on two occasions for deep Labour internal politicking. If he becomes deputy leader, I foresee it happening again.
He's Mandelson, but without the likeability or skill.
The Labour party will not be destroyed any more than the Conservatives were during the New Labour years of dominance, they simple won't be electable for a period. But the Labour party will be back when they are hungry enough to seriously want to govern again.
@DAaronovitch: Can it really be true that the Labour Party is weeks away from electing Don Quixote and Sancho Panza to lead it?
"to dream the impossible dream..."
I am so jubilant at the moment. Finally, the Labour party is to be destroyed, or at least turned into the rump socialist party it ought to be. Our thanks goes to UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and now of course the thousands who have chipped in £3 to help finish the job.
Comments
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3192918/Kids-Company-trustee-s-children-charity-s-payroll-String-foreign-trips-daughter-hired-32-500-music-ordinator.html
Looks like we may be treated not only to the Labour Party choosing just about the most unelectable MP they have as leader, but also doing so in such a way as to maximise the recriminations and the lack of legitimacy, yet with a sufficient mandate (on paper at least) to make it extremely hard to chuck him out.
In order for Labour to pose a threat to the SNP they'll need to provide a reason to not just negatively vote anti-Tory but to positively vote pro-Labour and anti-SNP. What reason does Corbyn give for that? How does a Corbyn Labour provide a reason to vote against the SNP?
Is the party leader removal mechanism launched by MPs? If it is it'll look very very bad especially considering how most MPs didn't even want to nominate him...
Fits with the idea Labour members are thinking of who will provide the strongest opposition during this parliament rather than who will win 2020.
Corbyn could be under pressure to stand down in 2018/2019 if the majority of Labour members still don't think he can win.
I'm guessing they have a pretty narrow definition of who perpetrates human rights definitions as well.
I reckon he will infuriate cameron in an annoying nagging way a la @phillipthompson or @jameskelly
Corbyn +996
Burnham +211
Cooper +631
Kendall -215
is how I've ended up.
It's all pure fantasy from anyone connected to Labour in Scotland at the moment.
On a betting note, I agree with @TheWhiteRabbit that there must, surely, be some backwash into the London mayoral election (and the Labour selection). It's inconceivable that the tsunami of loony leftism has been confined just to the leadership selection. Plus we can now be very sure that, whatever the leadership result, the Labour Party is going to be in massive disarray in the lead-up to 2016. Backing Zac, as our pale furry friend suggests, is one way to play that; maybe laying Tessa is another.
https://twitter.com/petercoles44/status/630705501379145729
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/aug/10/google-alphabet-parent-company
If you want to vote against the Tories the only logical party to vote for now is the SNP. Previously it was Labour. For Labour to win being not the Tories is not enough. They need people to want to vote against the SNP too.
1) Because he would be certain to win
2) Because he can't risk the country being destroyed if Corbyn faces an unpopular Con leader
And even if he only did 2 more years and retired in 2022 he would beat Maggie's time as PM and go down as one of the greatest PM's of all time - much to the irritation of most people on here!
'labour's alternative vote system could be what stops Corbyn'?
Can we expect a retraction soon?
It is utter fantasy to believe that Corbyn can undermine the SNP. The best he can hope for is to cut SLAB adrift and open a formal dialogue with the SNP (starting with giving them the Scotland portfolio and possibly the Energy and Climate Change portfolio in the current opposition set up).
The SNP must be praying for a mild winter with no, absolutely no unforeseen circumstances or else there will be a lot of anger expressed against them in the polling booths next year. No one likes to discover that their idols are just gold plated on tin and not solid 24 carat.
Did warn you all someone tried to trade £5k on Corbyn at 2.78 on Betfair early this evening which was very suspicous!
I am sitting with +£14k on Corbyn, now the question is whether I go in full for Corbun now or hedge and cash out some more... Deciscions!
Because none of it is true. The SHS is running great, providing a great service and the SNP rating is massively high. Remember for an incumbent government Neither Good Nor Bad is a positive endorsement.
People don't agree with the hyperbole. They don't see reality match the picture being painted by the media and the SNP Bad brigade. People are not all morons. They understand that change has teething problems and accept it.
In Scotland the Tories are irrelevant and have one seat, if you want to oppose UK Tories you may well vote Corbyn Labour which has a strong anti austerity and tax the rich message, indeed far stronger than Sturgeon could promise. It is no secret the SNP have made clear the leader they most fear is Corbyn
The SNP never campaigned or made an anti-Labour message. The anti-Labour messages came from two sources - The Labour Party itself "we haven't been good enough", "we've let people down", "we're changing" and from the voters "I didn't leave Labour, Labour left me".
The SNP only really had one message in terms of the headline - vote SNP for the best deal for Scotland. And that message worked and it was successful and by all indications it is very much the way Scotland still thinks which is why they've grown their VI from 49% to 62% in three months.
http://www.scoopnest.com/user/SkyNews/630856793430884352
Oh - PS
just read it - its an ex LD ministers quote. Back to sleep Mr Crosby.
As for MacIntosh having gravitas, we'll see how much gravitas he has when he's hiding in a sandwich shop like his indentikit clone Iain Gray. I'm still not convinced they're different people.
The SNP's 'deal for Scotland' was to hold the balance of power, failed, and to lead the campaign against austerity, on which it could now find itself outflanked by Corbyn
Big similarities between Labour attacks on Corbyn now and failed attempts to stop Livingstone in 2000. Some of the same people involved too.
More destruction of the English language.
A one party state is what China has-it means no other parties are allowed. Is that Britain? No it is not.
Fun times ahead if he does win - either much better than expected and so enthralling, or an entertaining trainwreck. Let's keep the Tories honest either way, no skating by unnoticed in the chaos.
Good night
"Rubbish, the precedent set was that Westminster had the final say on whether to allow a referendum or not.
Time for a lesson in reserved powers?"
The rubbish is all yours. Try to imagine a Westminster Government successfully opposing a referendum placed in an SNP mandate and supported by the people of Scotland.
Oh sure, Westminster could delay it, but it would happen, and then unionism would be swept aside by an infuriated electorate convinced that a Tory Government with one MP in Scotland had tried to crush Scottish democracy.
I wonder, if Jezza wins, we may yet see an exodus of the ambitious who don't fancy the next 10 years on the Opposition backbenches?
To repeat - Foot was actually wanted by a parliamentary party majority. Corbyn is not and on top of that is a pigmy compared to Foot.
Who knows what vote he will get in the GE. Indeed will he actually criticise the IRA? In fact never mind the IRA, will he would he criticise anyone opposed to the closed shop?
NATO Trident IRA Terrorists Putin.... well just what kind of voter is he after if he wants to break 8.5 million?
"I want you to be part of a winning team." LOLZ 8%
If the above is correct it makes it much, much more likely that the Boundary changes will go through.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/08/10/corbyn-pull-ahead/
Does that sound familiar? Didn't we recently have an election in which voters at large told us that they were going to vote for Labour but rated Dave as the better PM and stronger on the economy than Ed? I think there is some dissonance at work here and while these voters are more ideological (and thus less inclined to be swayed by electability), I still think that a proportion of Corbynites will balk at the end. Whether it will be enough to get Burnham over the line remains to be seen.
"David Cameron will fight 2020 election, senior Tories believe"
"Senior Conservatives say that they are convinced David Cameron will fight a third general election in 2020 because the “lure of power will be too strong”"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11795172/David-Cameron-will-fight-2020-election-senior-Tories-believe.html
If Cameron wins GE and stands down in 2022 then Osborne is then guaranteed to be PM for 3 years.
Whereas if Dave resigns just before 2020 then Osborne could lose the GE and go down as a complete failure.
It's like giving the fat ugly barmaid a sympathy f*ck, and then finding out you've knocked her up and you now have to marry her.