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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7% in the first post debate poll

Away from the Labour leadership the most intriguing political betting market currently is on who will be the Republican party nominee for the November 2016 Presidential Election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    If Corbyn wins, I think my prediction from last Dec becomes more likely

    isam • Posts: 15,402
    December 2014

    I see no reason why in the near future, when petty , pretend differences are put to one side, there wont be a realignment of the parties

    Left leaning Libdem, Progressive Labour, Greens, and SNP
    Blairite Labour/Cameroons/Orange Bookers
    Old Labour/Right Leaning Tories/UKIP
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited August 2015
    Grrrreat... IS want wannabe Jihadis to form gangs in the UK and strike as lone wolves...

    Could be worse, could be thousands of illegal immigrants from North Africa and the middle East trying to storm the Channel Tunnel as well

    "Islamic State is now focused on urging British would-be recruits to carry out "lone wolf" attacks in the UK instead of travelling to fight in Syria, Sky News has learned.

    Fictional characters created online by Sky with an undercover freelance journalist were sent terror guidebooks by senior jihadists in Syria - including advice on raising funds and making weapons.

    And we were told IS already has a number of potential bombers in the UK - some of whom have been trained in Syria and are ready to attack.

    By posing on Twitter and in chatrooms as two individuals committed to jihad - one male, one female - we have gained a disturbing new insight into the extremists' tactics."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1533617/exclusive-is-bombers-in-uk-ready-to-attack
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2015
    isam said:

    If Corbyn wins, I think my prediction from last Dec becomes more likely

    isam • Posts: 15,402
    December 2014

    I see no reason why in the near future, when petty , pretend differences are put to one side, there wont be a realignment of the parties

    Left leaning Libdem, Progressive Labour, Greens, and SNP
    Blairite Labour/Cameroons/Orange Bookers
    Old Labour/Right Leaning Tories/UKIP

    I genuinely think that anyone involved with Labour could not stomach any link with any Tory on that level.

    Plus, I don't think a leader would drive it, a change in voting system would, but that would fragment it rather than realign it. IMO.

    I could imagine that would look something like ...

    ---Pants-on-head Labour/Greens/even further into the gloom

    ---Centre-Left Labour/Left-leaning Lib Dem

    ---Old Labour/some Tories (not too many, but Rob Halfon springs to mind as an archtype)/some UKIP

    ---Cameroon Tories/Orange Book/very-centre/Blairite Labour

    ---Pants-on-head Tory/UKIP/even further into the gloom

    ---Celtic Nationalists as their own grouping
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 512
    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 512
    @bannedinParis the group of Lib Dems who would align with any Blairites would be miniscule. It would be a permanent case of "don't mention the (Iraq) war"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,432
    MrsB said:

    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.

    He's more electable in the US than Corbyn is in the UK.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    Kezia Dugdale interview:

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1326393-stephen-daisley-interviews-scottish-labour-leadership-hopeful-kezia-dugdale/

    Most interesting bit was when Daisley asked her about GE2015. Sounds like the guys just sat around in SLAB HQ churning out tweets and leaflets - what a shower - you'd think with 5 years notice of the election SLAB would've had a better plan of action.


    I ask Dugdale why things went so disastrously wrong in May.

    “Are you joking? We’ve got a show to see in an hour,” she quips, before venturing: “Lots went wrong. Looking back, there’s quite a few things we could have done differently. Would it have changed the result? No. When Jim and I came into office, we were 23 points behind and we were hoping to close the polls by one point a week; we ended up further back than we started.

    “It was a very centralised campaign. We had lots of money and lots of resources but it was all spent through the office in Glasgow. So we had identical leaflets going out to every part of the country, where the message that you want to put out in Edinburgh about the financial sector and jobs connected to that is different from rural transport issues you want to talk about in Fife or housing issues in the East End of Glasgow. It’s technologically easier and cheaper now to have more nuanced messages and we didn’t do that.”
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,775
    MrsB said:

    @bannedinParis the group of Lib Dems who would align with any Blairites would be miniscule. It would be a permanent case of "don't mention the (Iraq) war"

    Maybe Blairite isn't the word I'm looking for - Soft Left?

    Edit coming.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    At the beginning I had never heard of Jeremy Corbyn, so I though that he would never even make it to the ballot.

    Then I thought that he can beat Liz Kendall (whom I was also mystified as to why she was on the ballot), but surely not the well known big beasts.

    But then as time went by I saw that first Burnham was crap as a campaigner and latter also Yvette, the debates were illuminating to see the contrast between Corbyn and the others on the same stage.

    So Labour will have the best leader of the 4 that are on the ballot, which is undoubtedly Jeremy Corbyn, he is the only one of them that has shown basic levels of competence, skills and of course the passion to win the leadership election.

    Perhaps there are similarities with the situation in the USA, on paper candidates like Bush are a shoe in but in reality they perform on stage like coffins.

    It will be interesting to see the dynamics developing between Cameron and Corbyn, Corbyn's style is very different than Ed Milliband's:

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,130
    Jeb Bush's last matched price on Betfair of 2.72 for the Republican party nomination is impressively short for a man who is hardly exactly setting the field alight (joint sixth in this poll). He benefits from looking plausible, unlike most of those ahead of him in the polls, but I'm a believer in laying the favourite in this contest and have done so also, having previously laid Chris Christie and Marco Rubio.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    FPT
    Scot P says ''@BethRigby: Just off the phone to a v sensible/capable shadow cabinet figure whose in despair over #Corbyn surge. "Party's gone into complete meltdown"''

    'meltdown'? No wonder lefties are anti nuclear.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Jeez. Either criminally incompetent or lazy.
    calum said:

    Kezia Dugdale interview:

    “It was a very centralised campaign. We had lots of money and lots of resources but it was all spent through the office in Glasgow. So we had identical leaflets going out to every part of the country, where the message that you want to put out in Edinburgh about the financial sector and jobs connected to that is different from rural transport issues you want to talk about in Fife or housing issues in the East End of Glasgow. It’s technologically easier and cheaper now to have more nuanced messages and we didn’t do that.”

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2015
    I'd heard of Corbyn because of his brother, and I sat through one of Jerry's homilies whilst at the DoH.

    I'd never heard of Kendall at all.
    Speedy said:

    At the beginning I had never heard of Jeremy Corbyn, so I though that he would never even make it to the ballot.

    Then I thought that he can beat Liz Kendall (whom I was also mystified as to why she was on the ballot), but surely not the well known big beasts.

    But then as time went by I saw that first Burnham was crap as a campaigner and latter also Yvette, the debates were illuminating to see the contrast between Corbyn and the others on the same stage.

    So Labour will have the best leader of the 4 that are on the ballot, which is undoubtedly Jeremy Corbyn, he is the only one of them that has shown basic levels of competence, skills and of course the passion to win the leadership election.

    Perhaps there are similarities with the situation in the USA, on paper candidates like Bush are a shoe in but in reality they perform on stage like coffins.

    It will be interesting to see the dynamics developing between Cameron and Corbyn, Corbyn's style is very different than Ed Milliband's:

    ://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZAn7ZEvwek

  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    isam said:

    Grrrreat... IS want wannabe Jihadis to form gangs in the UK and strike as lone wolves...

    Could be worse, could be thousands of illegal immigrants from North Africa and the middle East trying to storm the Channel Tunnel as well

    "Islamic State is now focused on urging British would-be recruits to carry out "lone wolf" attacks in the UK instead of travelling to fight in Syria, Sky News has learned.

    Fictional characters created online by Sky with an undercover freelance journalist were sent terror guidebooks by senior jihadists in Syria - including advice on raising funds and making weapons.

    And we were told IS already has a number of potential bombers in the UK - some of whom have been trained in Syria and are ready to attack.

    By posing on Twitter and in chatrooms as two individuals committed to jihad - one male, one female - we have gained a disturbing new insight into the extremists' tactics."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1533617/exclusive-is-bombers-in-uk-ready-to-attack

    Don't panic.

    Corbyn can have a chat with them, and sort it all out.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    In all seriousness, I've been pondering JC's baggage and trying to see how he won't be annihilated.

    One can be all starry-eyed about his Magic People's QE Bank - but the rest of it? His list of dubious friends alone provides acres of opportunity.

    And that's before the newspapers start digging in a serious way.
    watford30 said:

    isam said:

    Grrrreat... IS want wannabe Jihadis to form gangs in the UK and strike as lone wolves...

    Could be worse, could be thousands of illegal immigrants from North Africa and the middle East trying to storm the Channel Tunnel as well

    "Islamic State is now focused on urging British would-be recruits to carry out "lone wolf" attacks in the UK instead of travelling to fight in Syria, Sky News has learned.

    Fictional characters created online by Sky with an undercover freelance journalist were sent terror guidebooks by senior jihadists in Syria - including advice on raising funds and making weapons.

    And we were told IS already has a number of potential bombers in the UK - some of whom have been trained in Syria and are ready to attack.

    By posing on Twitter and in chatrooms as two individuals committed to jihad - one male, one female - we have gained a disturbing new insight into the extremists' tactics."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1533617/exclusive-is-bombers-in-uk-ready-to-attack

    Don't panic.

    Corbyn can have a chat with them, and sort it all out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,099
    Plato said:

    In all seriousness, I've been pondering JC's baggage and trying to see how he won't be annihilated.

    One can be all starry-eyed about his Magic People's QE Bank - but the rest of it? His list of dubious friends alone provides acres of opportunity.

    And that's before the newspapers start digging in a serious way.

    watford30 said:

    isam said:

    Grrrreat... IS want wannabe Jihadis to form gangs in the UK and strike as lone wolves...

    Could be worse, could be thousands of illegal immigrants from North Africa and the middle East trying to storm the Channel Tunnel as well

    "Islamic State is now focused on urging British would-be recruits to carry out "lone wolf" attacks in the UK instead of travelling to fight in Syria, Sky News has learned.

    Fictional characters created online by Sky with an undercover freelance journalist were sent terror guidebooks by senior jihadists in Syria - including advice on raising funds and making weapons.

    And we were told IS already has a number of potential bombers in the UK - some of whom have been trained in Syria and are ready to attack.

    By posing on Twitter and in chatrooms as two individuals committed to jihad - one male, one female - we have gained a disturbing new insight into the extremists' tactics."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1533617/exclusive-is-bombers-in-uk-ready-to-attack

    Don't panic.

    Corbyn can have a chat with them, and sort it all out.
    I'm thinking a Corbyn win is just what is needed to finally kill off socialism in the UK. All being well, he should Ratnerise its brand....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,713
    Mr. Mark, beware of what you wish for.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Plato said:

    I'd heard of Corbyn because of his brother, and I sat through one of Jerry's homilies whilst at the DoH.

    I'd never heard of Kendall at all.

    Speedy said:

    At the beginning I had never heard of Jeremy Corbyn, so I though that he would never even make it to the ballot.

    Then I thought that he can beat Liz Kendall (whom I was also mystified as to why she was on the ballot), but surely not the well known big beasts.

    But then as time went by I saw that first Burnham was crap as a campaigner and latter also Yvette, the debates were illuminating to see the contrast between Corbyn and the others on the same stage.

    So Labour will have the best leader of the 4 that are on the ballot, which is undoubtedly Jeremy Corbyn, he is the only one of them that has shown basic levels of competence, skills and of course the passion to win the leadership election.

    Perhaps there are similarities with the situation in the USA, on paper candidates like Bush are a shoe in but in reality they perform on stage like coffins.

    It will be interesting to see the dynamics developing between Cameron and Corbyn, Corbyn's style is very different than Ed Milliband's:

    ://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZAn7ZEvwek

    I also never heard of Liz Kendall before this but I immediately grasped that she was rubbish.
    I only needed to read some past statements and see some youtube clips of her the first day she ran to understand that she had nothing to do with ordinary people or the Labour party.

    She was just an MP in a safe seat behaving and sounding like a safe seat MP.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    Plato said:

    Jeez. Either criminally incompetent or lazy.

    calum said:

    Kezia Dugdale interview:

    “It was a very centralised campaign. We had lots of money and lots of resources but it was all spent through the office in Glasgow. So we had identical leaflets going out to every part of the country, where the message that you want to put out in Edinburgh about the financial sector and jobs connected to that is different from rural transport issues you want to talk about in Fife or housing issues in the East End of Glasgow. It’s technologically easier and cheaper now to have more nuanced messages and we didn’t do that.”

    Quite - as to what John McT and Blair McD were up to during the 6 months up to polling day is anybody's guess. At least we now know that Mr IOS was just making it up !!

    For me the game was up when in a last ditched effort to win back the mainly male 190,000 voters which SLAB believed it had lost to the SNP, the Labour party deployed its secret weapon, Eddie Izzard, during the last week of the campaign. Eddie appeared in Glasgow and Edinburgh in full battledress, high heels, red mini skirt, silk blouse, lipstick and a 1980s style blue jacket equipped with shoulder pads.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    edited August 2015
    Jeb Bush looks like the Andy Burnham of the race to me.

    Laid a tenner at 2.74 anyway.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,775
    Is Fiorina any good? Bit of a bump in a number of places after last week.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    Jeb Bush's last matched price on Betfair of 2.72 for the Republican party nomination is impressively short for a man who is hardly exactly setting the field alight (joint sixth in this poll). He benefits from looking plausible, unlike most of those ahead of him in the polls, but I'm a believer in laying the favourite in this contest and have done so also, having previously laid Chris Christie and Marco Rubio.

    Bush is a bore.
    A first rate one.

    On the TV debate stage he showed his boring skills to all, along with Walker and Kasick "my father was a mailman", and of course they all bombed especially when compared with Trump on the same stage.
    The republican primaries are like a TV show and the audience reacts so far to Bush like this:

  • AndyJS said:

    MrsB said:

    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.

    He's more electable in the US than Corbyn is in the UK.
    That says more about the Americans than anything else tbqf.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,168

    Is Fiorina any good? Bit of a bump in a number of places after last week.

    She was value at 160/1! Might still be worth a punt as she will most likely get involved in the next debate and will stand out.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    calum said:

    Plato said:

    Jeez. Either criminally incompetent or lazy.

    calum said:

    Kezia Dugdale interview:

    “It was a very centralised campaign. We had lots of money and lots of resources but it was all spent through the office in Glasgow. So we had identical leaflets going out to every part of the country, where the message that you want to put out in Edinburgh about the financial sector and jobs connected to that is different from rural transport issues you want to talk about in Fife or housing issues in the East End of Glasgow. It’s technologically easier and cheaper now to have more nuanced messages and we didn’t do that.”

    Quite - as to what John McT and Blair McD were up to during the 6 months up to polling day is anybody's guess. At least we now know that Mr IOS was just making it up !!

    For me the game was up when in a last ditched effort to win back the mainly male 190,000 voters which SLAB believed it had lost to the SNP, the Labour party deployed its secret weapon, Eddie Izzard, during the last week of the campaign. Eddie appeared in Glasgow and Edinburgh in full battledress, high heels, red mini skirt, silk blouse, lipstick and a 1980s style blue jacket equipped with shoulder pads.
    It really was as if Labour had thought turning up in Scotland with a transvestite Maggie Thatcher would be a winner.
  • Meltdown? The party needs to ask itself why its mainstream candidates are totally shite. The more this leadership contest goes on, it would have been continuity Miliband either way had Cooper or Burnham been elected.

    On socialism, well we haven't really had 'socialism' in the UK since the 1940s. If we're talking socialist ideology - like having some state owned things, state intervention in things such as poverty etc then I don't think that will ever die, no matter how much Tories would like it too.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    AndyJS said:

    MrsB said:

    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.

    He's more electable in the US than Corbyn is in the UK.
    That says more about the Americans than anything else tbqf.
    It's worse than you think, presenting "Donald Trump's Ultimate Merger" ( warning please use sexual innuendo for "merger"):

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Plato said:

    In all seriousness, I've been pondering JC's baggage and trying to see how he won't be annihilated.

    One can be all starry-eyed about his Magic People's QE Bank - but the rest of it? His list of dubious friends alone provides acres of opportunity.

    And that's before the newspapers start digging in a serious way.

    watford30 said:

    isam said:

    Grrrreat... IS want wannabe Jihadis to form gangs in the UK and strike as lone wolves...

    Could be worse, could be thousands of illegal immigrants from North Africa and the middle East trying to storm the Channel Tunnel as well

    "Islamic State is now focused on urging British would-be recruits to carry out "lone wolf" attacks in the UK instead of travelling to fight in Syria, Sky News has learned.

    Fictional characters created online by Sky with an undercover freelance journalist were sent terror guidebooks by senior jihadists in Syria - including advice on raising funds and making weapons.

    And we were told IS already has a number of potential bombers in the UK - some of whom have been trained in Syria and are ready to attack.

    By posing on Twitter and in chatrooms as two individuals committed to jihad - one male, one female - we have gained a disturbing new insight into the extremists' tactics."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1533617/exclusive-is-bombers-in-uk-ready-to-attack

    Don't panic.

    Corbyn can have a chat with them, and sort it all out.
    I'm thinking a Corbyn win is just what is needed to finally kill off socialism in the UK. All being well, he should Ratnerise its brand....
    Corbyn is pretty appalling.
    The Times Leader is quite cutting.
    ''His plan to compel the Bank of England to underwrite deficit financing for any purpose would make counter-inflationary strategy as futile in Britain as it is under the revolutionary regime of Venezuela.''
    ''His belief that £120 billion can be raised by clamping down on tax evasion is a fairytale.''
    ''The Nato alliance was in part the creation of the postwar Labour government. Mr Corbyn wants Britain out. His reasoning is not the futile pacifism of Lansbury but his frank belief that today’s aggressors are unfairly maligned. Preposterously, Mr Corbyn maintains that Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine “is not unprovoked” and justifies Russian imperialism in Crimea as “the right of people to seek a federal structure”. ''
    ''What above all makes Mr Corbyn unsuitable for membership, let alone leadership, of the Labour party, is that he stands outside its democratic traditions.''

    He is a saddo fruit loop bigot - egged on by an army of saddo fruit loop bigots . Whatever clever campaigning he brings matters not - his aim brothers and sisters is revolution and what we will see when the tinder he has lit catches fire is the street violence that goes with it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,170
    antifrank said:

    Jeb Bush's last matched price on Betfair of 2.72 for the Republican party nomination is impressively short for a man who is hardly exactly setting the field alight (joint sixth in this poll). He benefits from looking plausible, unlike most of those ahead of him in the polls, but I'm a believer in laying the favourite in this contest and have done so also, having previously laid Chris Christie and Marco Rubio.

    The usual practice with the Republicans is for the establishment favourite to win, which is Bush. However, not at those prices and not with his name counting against rather than for.

    I'd be wary about laying him because I can see him lasting well and the market remaining underpriced against his real chances, making it harder to lay off until someone does make a breakthrough - but that could be March or later.

    In the meantime, who else? Trump? Too risky. Paul? Too radical. Walker? Maybe but short-priced right now. Rubio? More 2020 than 2016 but would make for a good contrast against Clinton.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    China devalues the Yuan 2% and world markets go into free fall:
    Dax. -2.68%
    FTSE. -1.06%
    Dow. -1.3% so far
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Operation Icepick :sunglasses: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/no-really-jeremy-corbyn-going-win-leadership-election
    There is some mild concern among parts of the Left that Labour’s “Operation Icepick” – the weeding out of members of other political parties who have signed up to vote under the £3 registration scheme – will lead to a victory by one of the centrist candidates. (There is also a mood of hostility towards the £3 scheme among existing members and the parliamentary Labour party, who blame the Corbyn surge on the idea.)

    There are, at time of writing, around 70,000 registered supporters. Labour has expelled under 2,000 because they stood for other parties, including the Conservative Party. I’m going to make a prediction: Corbyn’s margin of victory will be larger than the eventual number of £3 supporters. Remember that it’s not £3 supporters who gave Corbyn the nominations of 152 CLPs. It’s not £3 supporters who have been cheering him to the rafters in the hustings. And in both YouGov polls, party members would have handed Corbyn victory too, albeit in less spectacular style than he will achieve thanks to the £3 scheme.

    As boring as it may make the last month, the only question is the margin of Corbyn's victory.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeK said:

    China devalues the Yuan 2% and world markets go into free fall:
    Dax. -2.68%
    FTSE. -1.06%
    Dow. -1.3% so far

    You are going to see many more devaluations.
    The euro was devalued by 30% at the beginning of the year and that has hit global manufacturing, they can't compete with german products that are that cheap.
    So a lot of countries will be forced to devalue their currencies against the euro.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,170
    Plato said:

    Operation Icepick :sunglasses: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/no-really-jeremy-corbyn-going-win-leadership-election

    There is some mild concern among parts of the Left that Labour’s “Operation Icepick” – the weeding out of members of other political parties who have signed up to vote under the £3 registration scheme – will lead to a victory by one of the centrist candidates. (There is also a mood of hostility towards the £3 scheme among existing members and the parliamentary Labour party, who blame the Corbyn surge on the idea.)

    There are, at time of writing, around 70,000 registered supporters. Labour has expelled under 2,000 because they stood for other parties, including the Conservative Party. I’m going to make a prediction: Corbyn’s margin of victory will be larger than the eventual number of £3 supporters. Remember that it’s not £3 supporters who gave Corbyn the nominations of 152 CLPs. It’s not £3 supporters who have been cheering him to the rafters in the hustings. And in both YouGov polls, party members would have handed Corbyn victory too, albeit in less spectacular style than he will achieve thanks to the £3 scheme.

    As boring as it may make the last month, the only question is the margin of Corbyn's victory.
    No, there's the question of which round it will come in too.
  • Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    MrsB said:

    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.

    He's more electable in the US than Corbyn is in the UK.
    That says more about the Americans than anything else tbqf.
    It's worse than you think, presenting "Donald Trump's Ultimate Merger" ( warning please use sexual innuendo for "merger"):

    LOL what the hell did I watch?

    That's even more car crash than 50 episodes of the Jeremy Kyle show combined.

    No wonder Trump has terrible ratings with women.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited August 2015
    US expecting oil to hit $30 in near future; perhaps as early as tomorrow:
    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/opec-just-kicked-oil-into-the-30s.html
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 860
    MikeK said:

    US expecting oil to hit $30 in near future. perhaps as early as tomorrow:
    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/opec-just-kicked-oil-into-the-30s.html

    I think this may cause Sturgeon to avoid putting Independence in the Holyrood 2016 manifesto - unless the massive poll leads convince her otherwise.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Did the same PR firm come up with this one?
    'Look like a girl. Think like a MAN': Outrage on Twitter over BIC's 'sexist' Women's Day advert... but stationery company defends it as 'empowering'

    Bic South Africa launched the campaign in support of Women's Day
    It read: 'look like a girl, act like a lady, think like a man, work like a boss'
    It attracted a deluge of Twitter comments from those offended by the advert
    The company has since apologised via their Facebook page

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3193806/Outrage-Twitter-BIC-s-sexist-Women-s-Day-advert-stationery-company-defend-empowering.html#ixzz3iWymmpYf

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    MrsB said:

    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.

    He's more electable in the US than Corbyn is in the UK.
    That says more about the Americans than anything else tbqf.
    It's worse than you think, presenting "Donald Trump's Ultimate Merger" ( warning please use sexual innuendo for "merger"):

    LOL what the hell did I watch?

    That's even more car crash than 50 episodes of the Jeremy Kyle show combined.

    No wonder Trump has terrible ratings with women.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,736
    edited August 2015
    AndyJS said:

    MrsB said:

    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.

    He's more electable in the US than Corbyn is in the UK.
    Some polls have had even Bernie Sanders beating Trump, it is not completely impossible by 2020 Sanders or Trump could be US president and Corbyn UK PM and Marine Le Pen President of France, though highly unlikely.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,936
    Just had a call from the Corbyn camp.

    I confirmed my support.

    Not sure if I vote Yvette as 2nd pref. but presume Jezza is guaranteed to be in top 2 so probably pointless.

    JICILL??
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    JICILL??

    You can pack that in right now.... :lol:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,936

    JICILL??

    You can pack that in right now.... :lol:

    Noted.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What does that I stand for?

    Just had a call from the Corbyn camp.

    I confirmed my support.

    Not sure if I vote Yvette as 2nd pref. but presume Jezza is guaranteed to be in top 2 so probably pointless.

    JICILL??

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,432
    JICILL. We'll be using that for the next five years on PB I expect.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,170

    Just had a call from the Corbyn camp.

    I confirmed my support.

    Not sure if I vote Yvette as 2nd pref. but presume Jezza is guaranteed to be in top 2 so probably pointless.

    JICILL??

    JICBALHHPEITCBWIWHWNBPM.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Gesundheit

    Just had a call from the Corbyn camp.

    I confirmed my support.

    Not sure if I vote Yvette as 2nd pref. but presume Jezza is guaranteed to be in top 2 so probably pointless.

    JICILL??

    JICBALHHPEITCBWIWHWNBPM.
  • Plato said:

    Did the same PR firm come up with this one?

    'Look like a girl. Think like a MAN': Outrage on Twitter over BIC's 'sexist' Women's Day advert... but stationery company defends it as 'empowering'

    Bic South Africa launched the campaign in support of Women's Day
    It read: 'look like a girl, act like a lady, think like a man, work like a boss'
    It attracted a deluge of Twitter comments from those offended by the advert
    The company has since apologised via their Facebook page

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3193806/Outrage-Twitter-BIC-s-sexist-Women-s-Day-advert-stationery-company-defend-empowering.html#ixzz3iWymmpYf

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    MrsB said:

    people are still moving TOWARDS Trump???? He makes Corbyn look like a mainstream eminently electable figure.
    We've had neoliberalism and postmodernism. This is postneopolitics.

    He's more electable in the US than Corbyn is in the UK.
    That says more about the Americans than anything else tbqf.
    It's worse than you think, presenting "Donald Trump's Ultimate Merger" ( warning please use sexual innuendo for "merger"):

    LOL what the hell did I watch?

    That's even more car crash than 50 episodes of the Jeremy Kyle show combined.

    No wonder Trump has terrible ratings with women.

    'Think like a man'? Who came up with that? What's wrong with thinking like a woman - whatever that may be.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2015
    I'm trying to think of genuine Corbynistas [those who believe in him/his views] on here - bar @bigjohnowls I'm struggling.

    Who have I missed?
    AndyJS said:
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 860

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    Good, natural evolution from 7. Does away with the rubbish in 8/8.1
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm waiting for many months as I've hidden most of W8.1 behind a W7 shell.

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986
    Plato said:

    I'm trying to think of genuine Corbynistas [those who believe in him/his views] on here - bar @bigjohnowls I'm struggling.

    Who have I missed?

    AndyJS said:
    just about every Tory on the board. :-)
  • Plato said:

    I'm trying to think of genuine Corbynistas [those who believe in him/his views] on here - bar @bigjohnowls I'm struggling.

    Who have I missed?

    AndyJS said:
    I know @tyson and @SandyRentool are supporting Corbyn, but I don't think they necessarily think like Corbyn.
  • Plato said:

    I'm waiting for many months as I've hidden most of W8.1 behind a W7 shell.

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    It's okay.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,554
    edited August 2015
    Trump and Corbyn are rather obversive (to coin a word), but I think they have this in common:
    both are willing to *say* what many people think, however unattractive it may be to others.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986
    Toms said:

    Trump and Corbyn are rather obversive (to coin a word), but I think they have this in common:
    both are willing to *say* what many people think, however unattractive it may be to others.

    but how will he survive without focus groups telling him what to think ?

    will british politics really have to sink to the level of having principles ?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805
    edited August 2015
    Plato said:
    He looks charming in that dinner jacket photo.

    I think this kind of prolier-than-thou is so beneath any side that uses it and normally it's not the Spectator's side. Has he ever said he's working-class; come to think of it, who still self-identifies as working-class in this aspirational age?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,736
    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,554

    Toms said:

    Trump and Corbyn are rather obversive (to coin a word), but I think they have this in common:
    both are willing to *say* what many people think, however unattractive it may be to others.

    but how will he survive without focus groups telling him what to think ?

    will british politics really have to sink to the level of having principles ?
    Good questions. I have no answers. Is there an oracle in the house?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,753
    edited August 2015

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    Certain models of laptop seem to have problems with their power control (e.g. can't wake up from sleep). Not sure whether this applies to any desktop PCs. I'd have a quick google to see whether anyone has had difficulty with your model.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805
    Pauly said:

    MikeK said:

    US expecting oil to hit $30 in near future. perhaps as early as tomorrow:
    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/opec-just-kicked-oil-into-the-30s.html

    I think this may cause Sturgeon to avoid putting Independence in the Holyrood 2016 manifesto - unless the massive poll leads convince her otherwise.
    There is no point to voting SNP without independence.

    It is like voting Labour without getting NHS spending, Conservative without getting tax cuts, or Lib Dem without getting electoral reform.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,600
    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    Thanks - missed that when it came out. Actually the overall figures are very similar for all four candidates - little evidence of Corbyn either attracting or repelling vast numbers at that stage. Another point of interest is that both Tories and Labour had put people off since the election.
  • HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    I doubt he'll be able to do it, but getting Scotland back may make a Corbyn leadership less damaging for Labour. None of the candidates can win back England, not a single one.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Many thanks @MrPauly @Plato - @MyBurningEars very wise idea, will do. Cheers.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,600

    Plato said:

    I'm trying to think of genuine Corbynistas [those who believe in him/his views] on here - bar @bigjohnowls I'm struggling.

    Who have I missed?

    AndyJS said:
    I know @tyson and @SandyRentool are supporting Corbyn, but I don't think they necessarily think like Corbyn.
    I'm probably going to vote for him. I don't agree with everything he thinks, but I don't see him as intolerant of dissent, and I'd rather have an appealing vision with issues that one can argue about than no particular vision at all.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    There is absolutely no point, whatsoever, to move past Win7.

    I'm not aware of any applications that would require Win 8 or Win 10 and given both those are massive steps backwards for the PC, they seem utterly bereft of value.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,736

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    Thanks - missed that when it came out. Actually the overall figures are very similar for all four candidates - little evidence of Corbyn either attracting or repelling vast numbers at that stage. Another point of interest is that both Tories and Labour had put people off since the election.
    David Miliband would do better than all of them north and south of the border, but Corbyn's strikingly better performance in Scotland than rUK is the most interesting part of the poll
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,736
    edited August 2015

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    I doubt he'll be able to do it, but getting Scotland back may make a Corbyn leadership less damaging for Labour. None of the candidates can win back England, not a single one.
    Scotland would be the only net plus of a Corbyn leadership for Labour. As for England, I would not rule out Burnham and Kendall pipping Osborne there in the right circumstances, though not Cameron if he stands again and probably not Johnson
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Dair said:

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    There is absolutely no point, whatsoever, to move past Win7.

    I appreciate Mr Dair, however my new(ish) laptop came with 8.1 – and it’s bloody awful.
  • Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That said I had to laugh at the people who thought the NHS, and specifically GPs should offer 24/7 care and then agreed that it wasn't possible.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    I doubt he'll be able to do it, but getting Scotland back may make a Corbyn leadership less damaging for Labour. None of the candidates can win back England, not a single one.
    Scotland would be the only net plus of a Corbyn leadership for Labour. As for England, I would not rule out Burnham and Kendall pipping Osborne there in the right circumstances, though not Cameron if he stands again and probably not Johnson
    On Cameron, I saw that Telegraph story - just seems to be the hopes of MPs that he'll stand again, as opposed to any real inside information as to what Cameron is thinking. Was interesting to read that several Tories are worried about Osborne's electability, though.

    I don't think Osborne can get a majority, nor do I think he'd make a good PM - but most likely, he could preside over a minority Tory government. And then pretty much become unpopular from there.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,071
    'I do think Labour on 31 is entirely credible. It's a tiny bit up on the General Election, which wasn't so long ago'
    Labour polled 31.2% in May on a GB basis - which is what the polls invariably measure. Hence, no change at all really. People who refer to 30% are being mislead by the UK figure which pollsters almost never use.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2015
    I use this http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/make-windows-8-8-1-look-like-windows-7-xp/

    Dair said:

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    There is absolutely no point, whatsoever, to move past Win7.

    I appreciate Mr Dair, however my new(ish) laptop came with 8.1 – and it’s bloody awful.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    There is absolutely no point, whatsoever, to move past Win7.

    I appreciate Mr Dair, however my new(ish) laptop came with 8.1 – and it’s bloody awful.
    Monkey Boy and his team utterly destroyed the remaining strength of the PC with his idiotic Win 8 and the idea that you could successfully combine multi-platform functionality in a single OS.

    The entire point of the PC for the last 20 years has been its strength as a multi-tasking device (even before it was competing with tablets and smartphones). Now that is its entire USP. And Win 8 said "no you will work with one full screen application at a time".

    Utterly moronic.

    And now Win 10 takes the worst part of the App culture (incremental purchase) and makes it a core of the OS.

    Utterly moronic and financially illiterate.
  • Plato said:
    Germany's the odd one out there.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
  • Plato said:

    I'm trying to think of genuine Corbynistas [those who believe in him/his views] on here - bar @bigjohnowls I'm struggling.

    Who have I missed?

    AndyJS said:
    I know @tyson and @SandyRentool are supporting Corbyn, but I don't think they necessarily think like Corbyn.
    I'm probably going to vote for him. I don't agree with everything he thinks, but I don't see him as intolerant of dissent, and I'd rather have an appealing vision with issues that one can argue about than no particular vision at all.
    I understand what you're saying, but I can't vote for Corbyn because of his foreign policy views. They are a whole universe away from my own views, and I have little time for Putin sympathisers.

    Out of interest, what happened to your support regarding Yvette Cooper?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,736

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    I doubt he'll be able to do it, but getting Scotland back may make a Corbyn leadership less damaging for Labour. None of the candidates can win back England, not a single one.
    Scotland would be the only net plus of a Corbyn leadership for Labour. As for England, I would not rule out Burnham and Kendall pipping Osborne there in the right circumstances, though not Cameron if he stands again and probably not Johnson
    On Cameron, I saw that Telegraph story - just seems to be the hopes of MPs that he'll stand again, as opposed to any real inside information as to what Cameron is thinking. Was interesting to read that several Tories are worried about Osborne's electability, though.

    I don't think Osborne can get a majority, nor do I think he'd make a good PM - but most likely, he could preside over a minority Tory government. And then pretty much become unpopular from there.
    We shall see, and if Corbyn wins whether he lasts the course or is IDS 2
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    There is absolutely no point, whatsoever, to move past Win7.

    I appreciate Mr Dair, however my new(ish) laptop came with 8.1 – and it’s bloody awful.
    Monkey Boy and his team utterly destroyed the remaining strength of the PC with his idiotic Win 8 and the idea that you could successfully combine multi-platform functionality in a single OS.

    The entire point of the PC for the last 20 years has been its strength as a multi-tasking device (even before it was competing with tablets and smartphones). Now that is its entire USP. And Win 8 said "no you will work with one full screen application at a time".

    Utterly moronic.

    And now Win 10 takes the worst part of the App culture (incremental purchase) and makes it a core of the OS.

    Utterly moronic and financially illiterate.
    If you say it's financially illiterate I'm taking that as a recommendation to buy.

    $30 ahoy !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Plato said:
    So he worked on a railway magazine? PB polling should surge for Burnham...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,600

    Dair said:

    Help - Before I upgrade to Windows 10 – what’s the general consensus, good, bad or wait?

    There is absolutely no point, whatsoever, to move past Win7.

    I appreciate Mr Dair, however my new(ish) laptop came with 8.1 – and it’s bloody awful.
    I know it's not much help in your situation, but I've just taken delivery of a swish new laptop from PC Specialist, who offer quite remarkable flexibility and include a Win 7 option, which is rare for new laptops nowadays. I've heard people say that Win 10 is less awful than Win 8, but have no experience of either and am hoping not to have to any time soon...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,878
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    Thanks - missed that when it came out. Actually the overall figures are very similar for all four candidates - little evidence of Corbyn either attracting or repelling vast numbers at that stage. Another point of interest is that both Tories and Labour had put people off since the election.
    David Miliband would do better than all of them north and south of the border, but Corbyn's strikingly better performance in Scotland than rUK is the most interesting part of the poll
    Scotland offers some low-hanging fruit to Labour, if they shift further Left.

    But, it makes life harder in England and Wales. And, as others have pointed, Corbyn as leader effectively gives the government 11 Unionist votes when it matters.
  • Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
    I agree - this is why I don't get it when people think FPTP is an amazing system. FPTP works in two party systems such as the US. Where it doesn't work is views are much more fractured across the board - with very right people, very left wing people, and then moderates of both wings, with floating voters having a combination of left/right views.

    Another weird argument - that Dan Hodges made, was that FPTP produces strong, good governments. Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    I doubt he'll be able to do it, but getting Scotland back may make a Corbyn leadership less damaging for Labour. None of the candidates can win back England, not a single one.
    Scotland would be the only net plus of a Corbyn leadership for Labour. As for England, I would not rule out Burnham and Kendall pipping Osborne there in the right circumstances, though not Cameron if he stands again and probably not Johnson
    On Cameron, I saw that Telegraph story - just seems to be the hopes of MPs that he'll stand again, as opposed to any real inside information as to what Cameron is thinking. Was interesting to read that several Tories are worried about Osborne's electability, though.

    I don't think Osborne can get a majority, nor do I think he'd make a good PM - but most likely, he could preside over a minority Tory government. And then pretty much become unpopular from there.
    We shall see, and if Corbyn wins whether he lasts the course or is IDS 2
    Do you think Corbyn will last?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,170

    Plato said:

    I'm trying to think of genuine Corbynistas [those who believe in him/his views] on here - bar @bigjohnowls I'm struggling.

    Who have I missed?

    AndyJS said:
    I know @tyson and @SandyRentool are supporting Corbyn, but I don't think they necessarily think like Corbyn.
    I'm probably going to vote for him. I don't agree with everything he thinks, but I don't see him as intolerant of dissent, and I'd rather have an appealing vision with issues that one can argue about than no particular vision at all.
    Quick question: do you think a Corbyn-led Labour could get an appealing vision across to swing voters? Many in the media won't give him much of a hearing and there's a lot of history that could continually be brought up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,432
    edited August 2015
    Not really "unique". Canada is about to elect a government using exactly the same system. The current administration won an overall majority in 2011 with 39.6% of the vote.
    Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    Thanks - missed that when it came out. Actually the overall figures are very similar for all four candidates - little evidence of Corbyn either attracting or repelling vast numbers at that stage. Another point of interest is that both Tories and Labour had put people off since the election.
    David Miliband would do better than all of them north and south of the border, but Corbyn's strikingly better performance in Scotland than rUK is the most interesting part of the poll
    Scotland offers some low-hanging fruit to Labour, if they shift further Left.

    But, it makes life harder in England and Wales. And, as others have pointed, Corbyn as leader effectively gives the government 11 Unionist votes when it matters.
    Er no. The unionists are in government with Sinn Féin. They do deals with whomever will deliver the goodies.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986

    Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
    I agree - this is why I don't get it when people think FPTP is an amazing system. FPTP works in two party systems such as the US. Where it doesn't work is views are much more fractured across the board - with very right people, very left wing people, and then moderates of both wings, with floating voters having a combination of left/right views.

    Another weird argument - that Dan Hodges made, was that FPTP produces strong, good governments. Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.
    9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU ?

    so poorer than Romania or Southern Italy or Greece or Estonia or Poland ........

    If that's true why isn't the flow of emigration away from the UK ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,878

    Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
    I agree - this is why I don't get it when people think FPTP is an amazing system. FPTP works in two party systems such as the US. Where it doesn't work is views are much more fractured across the board - with very right people, very left wing people, and then moderates of both wings, with floating voters having a combination of left/right views.

    Another weird argument - that Dan Hodges made, was that FPTP produces strong, good governments. Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.
    9 out of 10 of the poorest regions? Surely Eastern Germany, Greece, Andalusia, Wallonia, Southern Italy, most of Eastern Europe would dominate the poorest regions?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting stats from yougov's ST Labour leadership poll of the public a fortnight ago.

    In England and Wales while 11% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party, 15% would be less likely giving him a net score of -4%, behind Burnham and Kendall.

    In Scotland by contrast 18% would be more likely to vote for a Corbyn led Labour Party and only 11% less likely giving him a net score of +7%, well ahead of the other contendors

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvcr8gkvrb/SundayTimesResults_150724_W.pdf

    Thanks - missed that when it came out. Actually the overall figures are very similar for all four candidates - little evidence of Corbyn either attracting or repelling vast numbers at that stage. Another point of interest is that both Tories and Labour had put people off since the election.
    David Miliband would do better than all of them north and south of the border, but Corbyn's strikingly better performance in Scotland than rUK is the most interesting part of the poll
    Scotland offers some low-hanging fruit to Labour, if they shift further Left.

    But, it makes life harder in England and Wales. And, as others have pointed, Corbyn as leader effectively gives the government 11 Unionist votes when it matters.
    Here are Labour's 100 top target seats for 2020.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/united_kingdom/targets/lab

    Their first "low hanging fruit" is 26th on the list with an SNP majority of 3,718 to overturn despite them pretty much maximising any tactical voting.

    Their next "low hanging fruit" is 45th with an SNP majority of 5,597 and is due heavy Boundary Changes which will only help the SNP gain a higher notional majority.

    In fact Labour only have 9 SNP seats in their top 100 targets and they are clustered at the upper end of the 100 with majorities well beyond anything Labour can expect to turn around.

    And in every single one of these seats, the SNP will have the "first defence incumbence" advantage.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,638

    Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
    I agree - this is why I don't get it when people think FPTP is an amazing system. FPTP works in two party systems such as the US. Where it doesn't work is views are much more fractured across the board - with very right people, very left wing people, and then moderates of both wings, with floating voters having a combination of left/right views.

    Another weird argument - that Dan Hodges made, was that FPTP produces strong, good governments. Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.
    Any evidence for the series of assertions in the final paragraph? The 9 out 10 poorest regions is, shall we say, surprising.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,273
    edited August 2015
    matt said:

    Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
    I agree - this is why I don't get it when people think FPTP is an amazing system. FPTP works in two party systems such as the US. Where it doesn't work is views are much more fractured across the board - with very right people, very left wing people, and then moderates of both wings, with floating voters having a combination of left/right views.

    Another weird argument - that Dan Hodges made, was that FPTP produces strong, good governments. Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.
    Any evidence for the series of assertions in the final paragraph? The 9 out 10 poorest regions is, shall we say, surprising.
    I stand corrected: It's 9 out 10 in Northern Europe (as opposed to EU, forgive my hazy memory). It's still pretty bad, though.

    http://4bitnews.com/uk/9-out-of-10-of-the-poorest-regions-in-northern-europe-are-in-britain/

    EDIT: http://inequalitybriefing.org/brief/briefing-43-the-poorest-regions-of-the-uk-are-the-poorest-in-northern-
  • Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.

    9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU are not in the UK. In fact, none are.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 860

    matt said:

    Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
    I agree - this is why I don't get it when people think FPTP is an amazing system. FPTP works in two party systems such as the US. Where it doesn't work is views are much more fractured across the board - with very right people, very left wing people, and then moderates of both wings, with floating voters having a combination of left/right views.

    Another weird argument - that Dan Hodges made, was that FPTP produces strong, good governments. Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.
    Any evidence for the series of assertions in the final paragraph? The 9 out 10 poorest regions is, shall we say, surprising.
    I stand corrected: It's 9 out 10 in Northern Europe (as opposed to EU, forgive my hazy memory). It's still pretty bad, though.

    http://4bitnews.com/uk/9-out-of-10-of-the-poorest-regions-in-northern-europe-are-in-britain/
    How many of those areas have a Labour council?
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,638
    Ah I see where you found your factoid on Europe. Go away and read it again. When even the Indy, suggests its complete bollocks you have to doubt its veracity.
  • Given the various issues the UK has - having 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU, a housing crisis, poor rankings in regard to health and education, widening inequality and declining social mobility, the loss of talent aboard etc you have to question that argument.

    9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in the EU are not in the UK. In fact, none are.
    Calm down, Jesus Christ. See my previous post.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    Not really "unique". Canada is about to elect a government using exactly the same system. The current administration won an overall majority in 2011 with 39.6% of the vote.

    Dair said:

    Also, looking at those YG results, it's striking to see how many view the government negatively (which you wouldn't believe if you just read PB) 24% view the Tories more negatively than before, while 28% had a previously negative view - giving a total of 52% having a negative view of the Tories. Just as thought - rather than any of the big two being actually liked or popular, it's a contest between who is less hated (Labour are currently losing that one, being on 68% in terms of negative image).

    That's entirely due to the unique way the UK government is "elected".

    FPTP creatures utterly bizarre situations and we are currently in one, where an absolute majority is commanded by a party which could only get support of 37% of the voters.
    FPTP is becoming increasingly rare, there's only four major countries where it is still used, in three of those - the UK, India and Canada, the legitimacy of the government is getting very, very questionable.

    Currently we have

    Canada 39% voted for an absolute majority government.
    The UK 37% voted for an absolute majority government.
    India 31% votes for an absolute majority government.

    These numbers are utterly ridiculous.
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