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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The practical guide to centre-left schisms

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process

    If it is all scrapped will my stake on HH payout? I do hope so...
    520.0 on Betfair...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Miss DiCanio, not only that, voting's just about to start and the Non-Corbyns have made themselves collectively look like whining losers.

    For any electorate, that's not clever.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    @Chris123 Did you manage to lay off your Andy position in time ?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    The opening line to my piece.

    Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator

    Does that make Owen Jones the horse whisperer?
    That should be the basis of your next thread
    I have a musical theme for my next thread (and a bit more cutting edge than Depeche Mode).
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process

    Well that's a novelty, candidates being bad losers before the election has taken place.

    Keep up the good work comrades.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Chris123 said:

    "Insiders say that means they will tell independent vote-counters..."

    Hilarious! How independent are these independent vote counters?

    This is the funniest spectacle I've ever been treated to in UK politics. Only the Republican nomination contests have been as much fun.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,336
    watford30 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Well this will be entertaining. Full out civil war, as the Labour Party implodes.
    I wouldn't really take Simon Danczuk as representative of all Blairites or all centrists or anyone else except his constituents.

    In general, I expect a Corbyn-led party to be fairly relaxed about politely-expressed dissidence - a fierce whipping operation would be a bit silly, and not really necessary at present.I'd expect a year or two of guarded mutual acquiescence - Blairites won't want to be accused of sabotaging the effort and will just quietly abstain when they feel like it, and Corbyn will have better things to do than act as witchfinder general. If things went well, most MPs would go along with it contentedly, and if they went badly then I doubt if Corbyn would insist on driving the car over the cliff in 2020.
    JackW said:


    Good afternoon young Nick.

    I noted your post this morning indicating that you've moved on from seeking election to the Commons. Good luck in your future endeavours.

    If you have the time might you post an overview of how you saw the final days of the election in Broxtowe ?

    Welcome back, Jack. We had a lengthy post mortem on this while you were away, so I'm reluctant to reopen it, especially as various contributors were obsessively nasty about it, but briefly, I thought that we were clearly winning a few months before the election, and there were signs that the Tories thought so too, but the election campaign went from bad to worse, and in the final 24 hours it became clear that it was going to end badly, with previous apparently firm promises going soft. The familiar themes - economy, SNP, Miliband - all played a part, more than local issues, but a 31% turnover in the electorate since 2010 was unhelpful too. (All just IMO, of course.)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is just so stupidly comic - every aspect of this election is farcical.
    Chris123 said:

    This is turning into a farce:



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    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    The opening line to my piece.

    Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator

    Does that make Owen Jones the horse whisperer?
    That should be the basis of your next thread
    I have a musical theme for my next thread (and a bit more cutting edge than Depeche Mode).
    Have you not seen this piece, Depeche Mode are cutting edge

    Are Depeche Mode Metal's Biggest Secret Influence?

    Inside heavy music's strange, surprising cult of Depeche Mode faithful with Marilyn Manson, Deftones, Rammstein and others

    http://rol.st/1N3sXFn
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "As of yesterday 444,000 people had put down their names for the leadership ballot - just 194,000 of whom were Labour members before the election.

    They're made up of 282,000 paid-up members, 92,000 union affiliates and 70,000 registered supporters who've paid a £3 fee."

    Imagine a EU referendum where 80 million EU citizens moved to the Uk in the run up to the vote and were added to the electoral roll.

    There would be outrage - and rightly so.

    They have totally mismanaged this election - thank god it's this and not the country.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    Being neither a Labour supporter nor a (maliciously inclined?) entryist I’ve not seen a ballot paper. How does one tell that it was tell whether it was genuine or submitted by an MIE?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Being neither a Labour supporter nor a (maliciously inclined?) entryist I’ve not seen a ballot paper. How does one tell that it was tell whether it was genuine or submitted by an MIE?

    I think you look for the tell-tale sign of a '1' by the name Jeremy Corbyn.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process

    Well that's a novelty, candidates being bad losers before the election has taken place.

    Keep up the good work comrades.
    GLW, the whole problem has been that these three are a bunch of losers, and boy have they lost out badly.

    Re Incitatus, have we finished making jokes? I'm getting horse with laughter...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Being neither a Labour supporter nor a (maliciously inclined?) entryist I’ve not seen a ballot paper. How does one tell that it was tell whether it was genuine or submitted by an MIE?

    I think you look for the tell-tale sign of a '1' by the name Jeremy Corbyn.
    Will

    '1' Kendall
    '2' Corbyn

    pass Harriet's test ?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    World's biggest Scalextric track designed by Formula One ace Martin Brundle and featuring 150ft of the sport's most famous turns goes up for sale

    The 'Ultimate 2015 Track' is made up of 177 pieces and features more than 40 corners, chicanes and sections
    Experts have struggled to put a value on the circuit, which features miniature sized landmarks, due its uniqueness
    It was originally made by Martin Brundle for Sky's F1 coverage and is largest slot car track assembled by company
    Circuit is due to be auctioned off for Children in Need at Laverstoke Park in Hampshire at the end of the month

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3195231/World-s-biggest-Scalextric-track-designed-Formula-One-ace-Martin-Brundle-featuring-150ft-sport-s-famous-turns-goes-sale.html#ixzz3icDlz9yu

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Mr. Eagles, so you think Corbyn will become leader but not last a year?

    I suspect he'll find the sudden stress of being Leader at the age of 67 - a far more demanding and high profile job - very tiring.. On the other hand he might surprise everyone and like it.

    My guess is he'll retire from ill health..
    or be "offed" by the CIA/Mossad...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process

    Oh, you bloody fools. I've predicted a Labour GE win for more than 5 years (I figure after being so very wrong this time, I have to be right in 2020, surely?), but if any of those three becomes leader, now or later, I may begin to have doubts.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Plato said:

    This is just so stupidly comic - every aspect of this election is farcical.

    Chris123 said:

    This is turning into a farce:

    Could head for the courts?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Miss Plato, do people still play Scalextric?

    Sounds like a decent gift for a young lad.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Being neither a Labour supporter nor a (maliciously inclined?) entryist I’ve not seen a ballot paper. How does one tell that it was tell whether it was genuine or submitted by an MIE?

    I think you look for the tell-tale sign of a '1' by the name Jeremy Corbyn.
    Will

    '1' Kendall
    '2' Corbyn

    pass Harriet's test ?
    Dunno, but that's the most damaging ballot you can cast. Not only does it help Jeremy win, but it also gives ammunition to the Blairites so they can argue that they too have support, thereby deepening the split.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. kle4, you could recoup any betting losses by selling Corbyn supporters tiger-deterring rocks :D
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    It's hard to believe but it is looking like the Ed Stone was not the stupidest thing Labour has done this year, and we are only in August.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.

    It really shows the bullet the country dodged by not electing Ed, Nick etc - a whelk stall would be beyond them.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process

    Just the kind of childish petulance I'd expect from those three losers. pathetic.
    Is this related to Yvette's "big intervention" tomorrow, I wonder?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    glw said:

    It's hard to believe but it is looking like the Ed Stone was not the stupidest thing Labour has done this year, and we are only in August.

    LOL!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    edited August 2015
    JonathanD said:
    Genius



    Are they checking it twice?

    Edit: careful with the blockquote tags. You seem to have deleted all the opening tags, but kept all the closing ones. Makes the post look a right mess when replied to!
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    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    On the other hand, Labour could have worse leadership.

    North Korea's vice premier appears to have been executed:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33882799

    Kim Jong-Il should've spent more time teaching his son how to be a dictator.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :sunglasses:
    glw said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    It's hard to believe but it is looking like the Ed Stone was not the stupidest thing Labour has done this year, and we are only in August.
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    Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited August 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    @Chris123 Did you manage to lay off your Andy position in time ?

    Partly. I arbitraged and reduced my exposure to 6K. The return is still the same as before. My thinking was (and is) that there would be pressure from the Labour leadership for the least viable candidates to make way for the most electable person among the three to keep out Corbyn (that would clearly be Burnham as five consecutive polls by different companies indicate). But the ego factor may preclude this from happening. Short of that, I don't see Corbyn losing this.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tele lists potential shadow cabinet members - however Jezza could use Lords and non MPs e.g. union leaders .


    I'm sure Prezza would come back..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11796735/Jeremy-Corbyns-shadow-cabinet-who-could-serve.html

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.

    It wasn't designed by Miliband - it was the Blairites who wanted this system.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    edited August 2015
    Mr. glw, well, quite.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. 565, I do apologise for impugning the intellectual capabilities of Ed Miliband.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2015
    TBF, did any Blairites give Corbyn a ballot helping hand?
    Danny565 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.

    It wasn't designed by Miliband - it was the Blairites who wanted this system.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    On the other hand, Labour could have worse leadership.

    North Korea's vice premier appears to have been executed:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33882799

    Kim Jong-Il should've spent more time teaching his son how to be a dictator.

    So every senior official he inherited has been shot, 'retired' or disappeared. One of them was allegedly shot in public using a flak gun.

    Is there any chance the Chinese could do us a favour and have him quietly locked up in a lunatic asylum where he belongs? Unless Jowell would like him as a male model.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Miss Plato, do people still play Scalextric?

    Sounds like a decent gift for a young lad.

    Will you be bidding?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited August 2015
    Plato said:

    TBH, did any Blairites give Corbyn a ballot helping hand?

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.

    It wasn't designed by Miliband - it was the Blairites who wanted this system.
    Ironically enough they kind of did open the door to it - when it initially looked like Kendall was struggling to get enough MP nominations, the Blairites were going around saying how it was unfair for MPs to close off the grassroots' options, and how a "broad debate" was essential. Then a few weeks later, predictably enough, the Corbynistas used that very logic to insist (with justification) that the Left was entitled to get a leg-up just as Kendall had.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    According to Guido, Cooper will "declare war" on Corbyn tomorrow.

    That's just what they need. Civil war (or uncivil as the case may be)
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Miss Plato, do people still play Scalextric?

    Sounds like a decent gift for a young lad.

    Absolutely, they do, Mr. Dancer. It was wonderful when my boy became old enough for Scalextric and a very sad day when he out grew it. I still have all his track and cars in the attic, though an I don't suppose I m alone in doing that.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: Candidates to write joint letter...
    Liz to draft frownily on her Mac
    Andy to add refs to 'our Mams'
    Yvette to tone down so it says nothing
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited August 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.

    It wasn't designed by Miliband - it was the Blairites who wanted this system.
    You cannot moan about the system at the point the "electoral register" closes. They should've done this weeks ago at nomination point at the latest, as it was, and is as plain as a pikestaff that 3 quid a vote is open to abuse.

    These people could've been running Govt depts, on May 8th. Frankly they don't look capable of running a bath right now, which we should all be concerned about because Govt's need decent oppositions or they tend to go off doing daft things.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Blairites have been pitiful throughout. Kendall chose to be Ms Unpopular Opinion, then didn't develop a position beyond Grow-Up.

    And that's been it. Sure she's been picked on - but her campaign has been almost invisible - even Andy has managed more media stunts [using his parents and children unfortunately].

    If I'd never seen her that first time with Andrew Neil, I'd have little idea who she was or why she was standing.
    Danny565 said:

    Plato said:

    TBH, did any Blairites give Corbyn a ballot helping hand?

    Danny565 said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), are you suggesting the Miliband-designed electoral system is somehow flawed?

    Preposterous!

    As an aside, Miliband's system would actually work reasonably well if Labour MPs hadn't supported someone they, er, don't support.

    It wasn't designed by Miliband - it was the Blairites who wanted this system.
    Ironically enough they kind of did open the door to it - when it initially looked like Kendall was struggling to get enough MP nominations, the Blairites were going around saying how it was unfair for MPs to close off the grassroots' options. Then a few weeks later, predictably enough, the Corbynistas used that very logic to insist (with justification) that the Left was entitled to get a leg-up just as Kendall had.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    King Cole, poverty and age prevent such a thing :p

    Mr. P, I'm sure he's as worried as we were when the Anglo-Zanzibar War began.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So what do we think the true price of a Jeremy Corbyn win is in the light of this news? 1.1?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited August 2015
    Finding a shadow chancellor will be the hardest task for Corbyn. They need someone who is in tune with the leadership and talk about anti-austerity for a couple of years. It'd have to be an MP from Corbyn's wing of the party.
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    Everyone is saying that the rules of Labour's leadership election are wrong, but I disagree.

    Corbyn is the one that has the most support amongst Labour supporters and therefore he should be the one to win the election. That's how democracy should work.

    The fact that he's completely bonkers is neither here nor there.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :mrgreen:
    Scott_P said:

    @PeterMannionMP: Candidates to write joint letter...
    Liz to draft frownily on her Mac
    Andy to add refs to 'our Mams'
    Yvette to tone down so it says nothing

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
    It's more likely they'll attempt to equalise the electorates within Leicester itself by moving one ward from Leicester South and one from East to West.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    welshowl said:

    You cannot moan about the system at the point the "electoral register" closes. They should've done this weeks ago at nomination point at the latest, as it was, and is as plain as a pikestaff that 3 quid a vote is open to abuse.

    The had few or no complaints until Corbyn started creeping up on them, and if one of them yet edges it I suspect that their complaints will be shelved and nobody will be calling for a re-run.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    John Trickett? Diane will get Shad Home Sec surely?
    Artist said:

    Finding a shadow chancellor will be the hardest task for Corbyn. They need someone who is in tune with the leadership and talk about anti-austerity for a couple of years. It'd have to be an MP from Corbyn's wing of the party.

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 13m13 minutes ago
    Corbyn on 70% in London, private polling shows.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Artist said:

    Finding a shadow chancellor will be the hardest task for Corbyn. They need someone who is in tune with the leadership and talk about anti-austerity for a couple of years. It'd have to be an MP from Corbyn's wing of the party.

    John McDonnell
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    Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited August 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @PeterMannionMP: Candidates to write joint letter...
    Liz to draft frownily on her Mac
    Andy to add refs to 'our Mams'
    Yvette to tone down so it says nothing

    Hilarious.
    Liz to draft it frownily on her Mac while she paces up and down at night...
    Andy to write it in the company of his mom and dad who continually pat him on the shoulder...
    Yvette brooding and contemplating how to tell us that it's all part and parcel of a patriarchist system designed to keep out the female leader everyone is secretly yearning for.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Artist said:

    Finding a shadow chancellor will be the hardest task for Corbyn. They need someone who is in tune with the leadership and talk about anti-austerity for a couple of years. It'd have to be an MP from Corbyn's wing of the party.

    A propos of nothing in particular:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/11/jeremy-corbyn-close-deficit-poor-labour-economy
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ok, how could the campaigns screw it up even more in a single day?

    @SamCoatesTimes: Some campaigns now want to release the letter. Others do not. Is Harriet still on holiday?

    You're welcome...
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    So - you can join the Labour Party as a supporter to vote in the leadership election, but if you do, they'll ask you who you intend to vote for before deciding if your vote counts? Not exactly a model of democracy, is it?
    As an aside, how much must this palaver be costing them? Surely it is costing them in excess of £3 to phone up each new supporter? Are they trying to bankrupt themselves before their donors do it for them?
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    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process

    Sounds like sour grapes – and again, far too late in the day to start moaning now. #morons
    Everytime I think Corbyn's rivals can't possibly get any worse they manage to outdo themselves. What a bunch of incompetents.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RodCrosby said:

    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking - the 3 non-Corbyn campaigns getting together to write a letter of complaint to Labour HQ about unfairness at process

    Just the kind of childish petulance I'd expect from those three losers. pathetic.
    Is this related to Yvette's "big intervention" tomorrow, I wonder?
    I thought that would be the fatal embrace of Gordon McDoom.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Is there anything left to go wrong with this leadership race, that hasn’t already happened?

    Another month to go before the winner is announced – will there be a party to lead – or two?
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    edited August 2015
    Danny565 said:

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 13m13 minutes ago
    Corbyn on 70% in London, private polling shows.

    Hmm... although I wasn't convinced previously - if that's even remotely accurate then surely that's curtains for Jowell?
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    Everyone is saying that the rules of Labour's leadership election are wrong, but I disagree.

    Corbyn is the one that has the most support amongst Labour supporters and therefore he should be the one to win the election. That's how democracy should work.

    The fact that he's completely bonkers is neither here nor there.

    The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that Jezza, for lack of a better word, is good. Jezza is right, Jezza works. Jezza clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the
    (R)evolutionary spirit. Jezza, in all of his forms; Jezza for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Jezza, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
    It's more likely they'll attempt to equalise the electorates within Leicester itself by moving one ward from Leicester South and one from East to West.
    Not necessarily - in the (now abandoned) redrawing of boundaries during the last parliament, the electoral commission were (due to their terms of reference) much more willing to cross boundaries, and much less willing to tolerate boundaries that deviated too far from the mean than previously. Made their task very difficult, and made for some quite odd shaped constituencies.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    One can only imagine what Ed Balls is thinking right now, as he empties the bins and dusts books in the library at Harvard.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I can't believe that the ballots are open for a month. I know Labour are now saying they're not sending them out/vetting passim, but 4 weeks to vote is going to be horrific for their Party.

    The leaks/allegations of leaks and campaigning or not by each side?

    Car crash doesn't even begin to describe it.

    Is there anything left to go wrong with this leadership race, that hasn’t already happened?

    Another month to go before the winner is announced – will there be a party to lead – or two?

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2015
    If they decide to bring in an area outside Leicester City council, the most obvious candidate would be Braunstone Town. Although it's part of the safe Tory seat of South Leicestershire, at the local elections held on the same day as the general election the 3 district council seats covering Braunstone Town were — rather surprisingly — automatic Labour wins with the seats being uncontested by other parties.
    Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
    It's more likely they'll attempt to equalise the electorates within Leicester itself by moving one ward from Leicester South and one from East to West.
    Not necessarily - in the (now abandoned) redrawing of boundaries during the last parliament, the electoral commission were (due to their terms of reference) much more willing to cross boundaries, and much less willing to tolerate boundaries that deviated too far from the mean than previously. Made their task very difficult, and made for some quite odd shaped constituencies.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733
    Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
    It's more likely they'll attempt to equalise the electorates within Leicester itself by moving one ward from Leicester South and one from East to West.
    Not necessarily - in the (now abandoned) redrawing of boundaries during the last parliament, the electoral commission were (due to their terms of reference) much more willing to cross boundaries, and much less willing to tolerate boundaries that deviated too far from the mean than previously. Made their task very difficult, and made for some quite odd shaped constituencies.
    *cough* Mersey Banks *cough*
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    antifrank said:

    So what do we think the true price of a Jeremy Corbyn win is in the light of this news? 1.1?

    It's ridiculous. In all honesty, if I were a right-wing Labour Party member, I might in all seriousness be voting for Corbyn now out of sheer exasperation over the pathetic petulance and uselessness of the other candidates.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 13m13 minutes ago
    Corbyn on 70% in London, private polling shows.

    Hmm... although I wasn't convinced previously - if that's even remotely accurate then surely that's curtains for Jowell?
    Nick Palmer thinks that there are enough Corbyn/Jowell combination people to swing it for her.

    I'm not convinced.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
    It's more likely they'll attempt to equalise the electorates within Leicester itself by moving one ward from Leicester South and one from East to West.
    Not necessarily - in the (now abandoned) redrawing of boundaries during the last parliament, the electoral commission were (due to their terms of reference) much more willing to cross boundaries, and much less willing to tolerate boundaries that deviated too far from the mean than previously. Made their task very difficult, and made for some quite odd shaped constituencies.
    As I recall the number of constituencies in Leics was not going to change. Leicester W would become more marginal if it took in some of the county.

    But I expect Liz to stick it out within Labour, so theoretical.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    The Westminster Players featuring The Labour Party brings you:

    "Oooh Vicar, where's my trousers?"

    "Hilarious - five stars!" The Sun

    "I actually peed my pants!!" The Daily Mail

    "*face-palm*" The Guardian
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Danny565 said:

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 13m13 minutes ago
    Corbyn on 70% in London, private polling shows.

    In ther words of Hudson from Aliens....

    'Game over man, game over.....'
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779
    What a complete mess this is turning into.

    I think if the 3 ABCers are gong to express concerns about the process they should now call for the leadership election contest to be suspended and withdraw from the race. Harman to continue as Deputy Leader until an enquiry into the process has been carried out. Then a new race under new rules could be planned for later in the year.
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    Everyone is saying that the rules of Labour's leadership election are wrong, but I disagree.
    Corbyn is the one that has the most support amongst Labour supporters and therefore he should be the one to win the election. That's how democracy should work.
    The fact that he's completely bonkers is neither here nor there.

    Stupid Is What Stupid Does.
    Forrest Gump
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    antifrank said:

    So what do we think the true price of a Jeremy Corbyn win is in the light of this news? 1.1?

    It's ridiculous. In all honesty, if I were a right-wing Labour Party member, I might in all seriousness be voting for Corbyn now out of sheer exasperation over the pathetic petulance and uselessness of the other candidates.
    There is only one thing Cooper can do now to stop him.

    Withdraw.

    I would say a legal challenge seems contrary to that.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Correct prices now perhaps

    1.1 Corbyn

    250.0 Kendall
    500.0 Harman

    Divide the rest evenly between Andy and Yvette ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    Mr. kle4, you could recoup any betting losses by selling Corbyn supporters tiger-deterring rocks :D

    That's so 4 hours ago. Now's it's all bear deterring sticks.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    edited August 2015
    In times like these when the world seems to be getting more and more crazily unpredictable, it is reassuring to find that some things are metronomically consistent

    "Five members of the same family were arrested by counter terrorism officers in east London today.

    Officers from the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command held a husband and wife and their three teenage daughters, aged 16, 17 and 19, at their home address in an early morning operation.

    All five were arrested on suspicion of possessing information “likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism.”

    The man was also arrested on suspicion of possessing false identity documents.

    Police were forced to act amid fears that some or all members of the family were planning to flee to Syria to join the terror group Islamic State."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/five-members-of-the-same-family-arrested-in-east-london-in-counter-terror-probe-a2487341.html
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2015
    Stephen Bush in the New Statesman.

    "No, really, Jeremy Corbyn is going to win the leadership election

    Forget worries about the polls, forget Operation:Icepick, forget everything. Jeremy Corbyn has won the Labour leadership election."


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/no-really-jeremy-corbyn-going-win-leadership-election
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    AndyJS said:

    If they decide to bring in an area outside Leicester City council, the most obvious candidate would be Braunstone Town. Although it's part of the safe Tory seat of South Leicestershire, at the local elections held on the same day as the general election the 3 district council seats covering Braunstone Town were — rather surprisingly — automatic Labour wins with the seats being uncontested by other parties.

    Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
    It's more likely they'll attempt to equalise the electorates within Leicester itself by moving one ward from Leicester South and one from East to West.
    Not necessarily - in the (now abandoned) redrawing of boundaries during the last parliament, the electoral commission were (due to their terms of reference) much more willing to cross boundaries, and much less willing to tolerate boundaries that deviated too far from the mean than previously. Made their task very difficult, and made for some quite odd shaped constituencies.
    I know some people who used to live in Braunstone. Its not really a Tory area I think.
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    Senior moment.
    Did we have a PB 2015 competition for things such as Labour's low/high polling with ICM?
    If we did this Corbyn event could blow the forecast out of the water.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Plato said:

    I can't believe that the ballots are open for a month. I know Labour are now saying they're not sending them out/vetting passim, but 4 weeks to vote is going to be horrific for their Party.

    The leaks/allegations of leaks and campaigning or not by each side?

    Car crash doesn't even begin to describe it.

    Is there anything left to go wrong with this leadership race, that hasn’t already happened?

    Another month to go before the winner is announced – will there be a party to lead – or two?

    Worth remembering that the people who devised this expected to be in Government right now implementing a whole series of policies that go against the flow of the market place. It would be like looking into the bowels of hell.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Senior moment.
    Did we have a PB 2015 competition for things such as Labour's low/high polling with ICM?
    If we did this Corbyn event could blow the forecast out of the water.

    Corbyn could set highs and lows.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    If they decide to bring in an area outside Leicester City council, the most obvious candidate would be Braunstone Town. Although it's part of the safe Tory seat of South Leicestershire, at the local elections held on the same day as the general election the 3 district council seats covering Braunstone Town were — rather surprisingly — automatic Labour wins with the seats being uncontested by other parties.

    Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Good luck to Chuka and Kendall trying to hold their seats under a Conservative label (or a label like "Liberal Unionists" which is specifically affiliated with the Tories). I doubt they have particularly high personal votes which would allow them to carry over a significant amount of tribal Labour voters over with them.

    Leicester West has quite a large LD, Kipper and Tory vote. Not that safe for Labour, winnable but academic. Kendall will be part of the fightback.
    Leicester West is also undersized (the other 2 Leicester seats are alright) and will need to take in 10k voters from outside the City boundary (I guess from Charnwood). This would I presume make it a lot more marginal.
    It's more likely they'll attempt to equalise the electorates within Leicester itself by moving one ward from Leicester South and one from East to West.
    Not necessarily - in the (now abandoned) redrawing of boundaries during the last parliament, the electoral commission were (due to their terms of reference) much more willing to cross boundaries, and much less willing to tolerate boundaries that deviated too far from the mean than previously. Made their task very difficult, and made for some quite odd shaped constituencies.
    Not too surprising if you have been to Braunstone. It was once a village but now 1930's Semi-detached heaven.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    Everyone is saying that the rules of Labour's leadership election are wrong, but I disagree.

    Corbyn is the one that has the most support amongst Labour supporters and therefore he should be the one to win the election. That's how democracy should work.

    The fact that he's completely bonkers is neither here nor there.

    Parties can choose however they want to elect their leaders. I don't see that it even has to be particularly democratic, if they don't want it to be. The problem is they've agreed a series of rules, and some people didn't like them and worked around them, others fear the rules are open to abuse, and its all stirred up by fear of the 'wrong' person winning
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    edited August 2015

    King Cole, poverty and age prevent such a thing :p

    Mr. P, I'm sure he's as worried as we were when the Anglo-Zanzibar War began.

    I don’t think “we” in the sense of the general British population knew it had either started or finished. Had consequences for the population of Heligoland, though!
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    It stands for

    "The Last Thing This Site Needs is A Ludicrous Acronym That New Posters and Lurkers Can't Understand and Even If You Think You are Being Ironic You are Not".

    Or NAMBLA (H/T The Daily Show)
    Isn't that an American Pie?
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    watford30 said:

    One can only imagine what Ed Balls is thinking right now, as he empties the bins and dusts books in the library at Harvard.


    He'll be thinking about the big issues of state. Such as, why do these Americans not pronounce the first 'r' in library?
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    antifrank said:

    The opening line to my piece.

    Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader would be the strangest political appointment since Caligula appointed Incitatus a Senator

    Does that make Owen Jones the horse whisperer?
    More of a horse shouter.
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    Everyone is saying that the rules of Labour's leadership election are wrong, but I disagree.
    Corbyn is the one that has the most support amongst Labour supporters and therefore he should be the one to win the election. That's how democracy should work.
    The fact that he's completely bonkers is neither here nor there.

    Stupid Is What Stupid Does.
    Forrest Gump
    "Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You don't know what you're gonna get."
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: It's not the £3 membership system in dispute in the Burnham-Cooper-Kendall letter http://t.co/uSjVHYFEqn
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    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 13m13 minutes ago
    Corbyn on 70% in London, private polling shows.

    Hmm... although I wasn't convinced previously - if that's even remotely accurate then surely that's curtains for Jowell?
    Nick Palmer thinks that there are enough Corbyn/Jowell combination people to swing it for her.

    I'm not convinced.
    I like NickP but often feel that he is way out of touch with what is going on inside his party.
    Plotting against Gordon = Never seen

  • Options

    Everyone is saying that the rules of Labour's leadership election are wrong, but I disagree.
    Corbyn is the one that has the most support amongst Labour supporters and therefore he should be the one to win the election. That's how democracy should work.
    The fact that he's completely bonkers is neither here nor there.

    Stupid Is What Stupid Does.
    Forrest Gump
    "Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You don't know what you're gonna get."
    is Corbyn the sour cherry thing?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    stjohn said:

    What a complete mess this is turning into.

    I think if the 3 ABCers are gong to express concerns about the process they should now call for the leadership election contest to be suspended and withdraw from the race. Harman to continue as Deputy Leader until an enquiry into the process has been carried out. Then a new race under new rules could be planned for later in the year.

    Pedantic, I know, but isn’t the sainted Harriet Acting Leader (as well as officially Deputy)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: Sources claim Andy Burnham's camp instigated letter last night - Corbyn's camp either appear not to have been asked to sign or refused
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2015
    John Mann on Radio 4 saying the job of checking who is joining the party in Bassetlaw is being left to him personally.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oooh
    Campaign sources say that the contact details of trade union members - some 90,000 strong - are being withheld from their campaigns.

    Meanwhile, insiders report that the details of trade union members have been passed onto party headquarters with their telephone numbers scrubbed, preventing either the party or the candidates from contacting them.

    But, they allege, the Jeremy Corbyn campaign has been given direct access to these members, handing them an advantage.

    The Cooper, Burnham and Kendall teams are also pushing for the party to tell all four campaigns when members have voted to prevent activists being bombarded with unnecessary communications.
    Scott_P said:

    @jessicaelgot: It's not the £3 membership system in dispute in the Burnham-Cooper-Kendall letter http://t.co/uSjVHYFEqn

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    Danny565 said:

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 13m13 minutes ago
    Corbyn on 70% in London, private polling shows.

    In ther words of Hudson from Aliens....

    'Game over man, game over.....'
    "That's great, this is really f***in' great, man! Now, what the f*** are we supposed to do? We're in some pretty shit now, man!"
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