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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sporting Index open a market on how many days Corbyn will l

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sporting Index open a market on how many days Corbyn will last as leader

The 475 days would mean that Corbyn’s stint as leader would end on the 31st of December 2016. Whilst discussing this market earlier on today with PBer Tissue Price his view on 475 was if pushed he’d sell, but it’s a risky one. I agree with him that it is risky for several reasons.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First?
  • Great market, kudos to SPIN.
  • Anyone care to try and spin this whole debacle as a great success for the corbyn movement?
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    edited September 2015
    Shame you couldn't leave Henry's excellent thread as leader up a bit longer.

    Much more interesting is the purge now starting at Labour HQ. There won't be any Blairites left to oust him before too much longer ...
  • Anyone care to try and spin this whole debacle as a great success for the corbyn movement?

    Things can only get better.

    Politics is all about the big mo(mentum)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Anyone care to try and spin this whole debacle as a great success for the corbyn movement?

    I refer you to the gallant Estobar...
  • I'm in the USA right now so I can't bet, but this looks like a sell to me on a Keynesian beauty contest basis, quite apart from anything else.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jon Trickett, Labour’s shadow minister without portfolio and deputy party chair, is expected to be named shadow communities secretary and given a role looking at constitutional reform, reports Ben Riley-Smith.

    However the Hemsworth MP is still yet to be unofficially named – with less than two hours to go before whoever takes the communities role needs to answer questions in Parliament.

    He has been giving advice to Mr Corbyn’s team throughout the campaign.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,232
    Estobar said:

    Shame you couldn't leave Henry's excellent thread up a bit longer.

    Much more interesting is the purge now starting at Labour HQ. There won't be any Blairites left to oust him before too much longer ...

    Hurrah!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,218
    edited September 2015

    Anyone care to try and spin this whole debacle as a great success for the corbyn movement?

    Estobar near the end of the previous thread was making a brave attempt, even managing to claim that Cameron's trip to Lebanon was due to the Corbyn effect!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,305
    edited September 2015
    FPT
    Estobar said:

    Given that Health went to someone with zip experience and no TV abilty- one can only assume that the number of MPs simply refusing to play is very considerable.

    The Sky report is hilarious reading - talk about desperately trying to get bums on seats.

    We still don't have:

    Shadow Defence Secretary ?
    Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary ?
    Shadow Energy Secretary ?
    Shadow Secretary of State for the Environment ?
    Shadow Communities Secretary ?
    Shadow Culture Secretary ?
    Shadow Secretary of State for Transport ?
    Shadow Secretary of State for Wales ?

    One example: would Cameron be in Lebanon today were it not for Corbyn? No.
    Sure.

    Cameron decided sometime after mid day on Saturday to visit Lebanon today.

    No security prep required....
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    antifrank said:

    I'm in the USA right now so I can't bet, but this looks like a sell to me on a Keynesian beauty contest basis, quite apart from anything else.

    The telephone is handy for betting abroad esp phone only markets
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,124
    FPT Southam

    My favourite Brian Close story was when he was fielding, and was struck on the head by a flying ball. He rounded on his colleague for coming to his aid rather than catching the ball as it flew off his head,
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    taffys said:

    Anyone care to try and spin this whole debacle as a great success for the corbyn movement?

    Economic boost - popcorn prices sharply up, journalists busier than normal and the public being entertained.

    It sounds like a success ...

  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Is there a market for whether Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister before 2020?

    I can see a number of ways in which it can happen, all focussing on Parliament. Everyone seems convinced that he will never win a General Election but he may not have to.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,124
    FPT Henry Manson,

    If you're right about this government, then it's grossly self-indulgent to elect a leader who is incapable of providing coherent opposition.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,395
    edited September 2015
    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    FPT

    Estobar said:

    Given that Health went to someone with zip experience and no TV abilty- one can only assume that the number of MPs simply refusing to play is very considerable.

    The Sky report is hilarious reading - talk about desperately trying to get bums on seats.

    We still don't have:

    Shadow Defence Secretary ?
    Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary ?
    Shadow Energy Secretary ?
    Shadow Secretary of State for the Environment ?
    Shadow Communities Secretary ?
    Shadow Culture Secretary ?
    Shadow Secretary of State for Transport ?
    Shadow Secretary of State for Wales ?

    One example: would Cameron be in Lebanon today were it not for Corbyn? No.
    Sure.

    Cameron decided sometime after mid day on Saturday to visit Lebanon today.

    No security prep required....
    Er, I don't think Corbyn appeared like a rabbit out of a hat this weekend, now do you.

    To the person asking about spin you really, really, don't get it do you? Spin is muck. No-one in Corbyn's world gives a flying f uck about spinning anything.
  • New Ozzie PM.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2015
    Must admit, I’d dismissed the idea that Corbyn would blithely stand aside at some point and fully expected him to lead Labour into the GE2020.

    However, my thinking now is with so many factions on the left now lining up to bring him down, he could be gone by Christmas.
  • Anyone care to try and spin this whole debacle as a great success for the corbyn movement?

    Estobar near the end of the previous thread was making a brave attempt, even managing to claim that Cameron's trip to Lebanon was due to the Corbyn effect!
    He clearly has deluded exceptionally high regard of the organisational abilities of the British Security Services - from a standing start at mid-day on Saturday, to wheels up at O'dark Thirty this morning - Dave probably threw in 'lets visit a refugee camp' Sunday afternoon.....
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    SeanT said:



    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, .

    No it doesn't. It shows how rightly he repudiates Murdoch and the Blairite media love in. But I'm afraid Primposies like you wouldn't understand that. Or, rather, you probably do and you're desperate to cling on to it.
  • Anyone care to try and spin this whole debacle as a great success for the corbyn movement?

    Estobar near the end of the previous thread was making a brave attempt, even managing to claim that Cameron's trip to Lebanon was due to the Corbyn effect!
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO3H5P8WIAA1piY.png
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406
    Estobar said:

    Is there a market for whether Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister before 2020?

    I can see a number of ways in which it can happen, all focussing on Parliament. Everyone seems convinced that he will never win a General Election but he may not have to.

    I see Estobar is an anagram of boaster :)
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm in the USA right now so I can't bet, but this looks like a sell to me on a Keynesian beauty contest basis, quite apart from anything else.

    The telephone is handy for betting abroad esp phone only markets
    Good point, well made. Time to clear the sleep from my eyes.

    Now I need to slip away from my strongly disapproving other half.
  • Australian Liberals showing Labour the way to do this stuff. Somebody issued a leadership challenge at 4pm and they had a new Prime Minister before the pubs were closed.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,511
    edited September 2015
    Estobar said:

    Is there a market for whether Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister before 2020?

    I can see a number of ways in which it can happen, all focussing on Parliament. Everyone seems convinced that he will never win a General Election but he may not have to.

    You can have 33/1 with me, but - no offence, just a timescale thing - I'd have to ask for the bet to be paid on.
  • The value is probably selling now and buying later - as long as it's possible to do so.
  • Estobar said:

    ..... Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister before 2020....a number of ways in which it can happen......he will never win a General Election but he may not have to.

    Strikes and Civil Disobedience appear to be on the Unions' agenda......
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited September 2015
    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how we can't endure scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    He is getting on and this is his last chance to do something significant in his career... He obviously hates the way the country and his party were heading as well as the political system... So he's managed to get elected and probably intends to be as awkward and contrary as possible

    A late mid life crisis perhaps? It seems pretty Perrin-esque, particularly the series when Reggie sets up the commune featuring all the old gang

  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,814
    Have we had any resignations from the new Shadow Cabinet yet?

    I assume there will be no shadow junior ministers
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The Eagle Has Landed.... Defence, if I heard Sky correctly.
  • Did anybody see Ed interviewed on Saturday? He said wasn't going to join cabinet but concentrate on his constituency and important issues such as climate change. Increasingly the labour party is becoming a small group of deluded fools concerned with refugees and climate change. I wonder how often he'll visit Doncaster?

    During the GE campaign I knocked on thousands of doors in a marginal seat, I can honestly say not 1 brought up the issue of climate change.
  • New Ozzie PM.

    Malcom Turnbull! A Republican to boot.....
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 858
    edited September 2015
    Maria Eagle is my MP - she has never leafleted my door or ever canvased my house. She is a terrible MP and not fit for the role of defence.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910

    (FPT) JEO said:
    "Has the shadow minister for Jews, Muslims and other assorted non-Christians been announced yet?"

    Err, hello. The biggest minority faith in Britain is Catholicism. We're not going to be lumped in with CoE types, thank you very much. We want - DEMAND - our own Minister to make sure that our particular views on transubstantiation, original sin, the Nicene creed and the price of fish are properly taken into account in government policy. Plus we want a special law saying that we mustn't be offended and a special monitoring team to make sure that rude things said about us are recorded and people told off for being Catholicophobic.

    Oh and the price of incense should be lowered and we need to have lots of money given to us for all the babies we have. Lots of money. Lots and lots. Because if you don't you are being "authoritarian" (copyright: H Manson, the Labour Party (currently in receivership)).


  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,395
    Estobar said:

    SeanT said:



    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, .

    No it doesn't. It shows how rightly he repudiates Murdoch and the Blairite media love in. But I'm afraid Primposies like you wouldn't understand that. Or, rather, you probably do and you're desperate to cling on to it.
    Primposies?!

    Er, OK.

    As to your point, it's not just Sky or the Sun who he's rubbing up against, is it? He's also refusing to talk to the BBC. That's "brave".

    And his biggest shouting match has been with Krishnan G-M of Channel 4 News, a bastion of lefty journalism.

    He's successfully alienating everyone. Already.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm in the USA right now so I can't bet, but this looks like a sell to me on a Keynesian beauty contest basis, quite apart from anything else.

    The telephone is handy for betting abroad esp phone only markets
    Good point, well made. Time to clear the sleep from my eyes.

    Now I need to slip away from my strongly disapproving other half.
    He thinks it's a buy??
  • Sean_F said:

    FPT Southam

    My favourite Brian Close story was when he was fielding, and was struck on the head by a flying ball. He rounded on his colleague for coming to his aid rather than catching the ball as it flew off his head,

    I was told he was hit flush on the forehead at short leg, as the ball was flying upwards he yelled "CATCH IT" before passing out.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,839
    Inevitable, and yet also hilarious

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=110&v=tyNI7wmjS6s
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    'I was the Chancellor of the Exchequer for London...'

    Ha ha ha. McDonnell is another crazy crackpot with an over inflated ego and sense of worth.
  • Did anybody see Ed interviewed on Saturday? He said wasn't going to join cabinet but concentrate on his constituency and important issues such as climate change. [..] I wonder how often he'll visit Doncaster?
    .

    Without a ministerial driver, I doubt Ed could even find Doncaster… :lol:
  • Cyclefree said:

    We want - DEMAND - our own Minister to make sure that our particular views on transubstantiation [...] are properly taken into account in government policy.

    Nobody really thinks that the bread is literally the body of Corbyn, do they?
  • FPT

    I think it is worth repeating once again what a terrible thing for British politics and for democracy the Corbyn election really is. Whilst we many of us like to joke about him and laugh at the Labour party going down the drain, the fact is that under the current system, Parliamentary democracy needs an effective and electable Opposition party to hold the Government to account. For all the desperate pleas of the Labour faithful, Corbyn and his shadow cabinet cannot provide that. Not now, not ever. Britain - or at least England and Wales, and I believe on balance Scotland as well - is not a radical left wing country and will not vote for a radical left wing Government.

    Effectively the Tories have been given carte blanche to pursue their agenda with no fear of effective party based opposition. The only real opposition I can see coming is from individual MPs - both Tory and Labour - who hold service to the country to be more important than service to the party. I fear this will make for not only bad opposition but, as a result, potentially bad government as well.

    As far as the latter is concerned I thought you wanted greater MP independence of thought and less of a whipped vote. The Labour Party by electing a 500x rebel is going down the road of doing exactly that.
    I did and I had that in mind as I wrote that comment. The problem is that greater independence of MPs requires a change in the system to limit the power of the whips applying to all sides of the House. Having one side implode whilst the other maintains its power within the rules as they currently stand does not achieve anything beyond giving far more effective power to the Government.
    Fair point. Though this is why Party Politics and the whips will never be abolished in a Parliamentary system, ultimately a disciplined side will beat undisciplined opponents and so one way or another even if formally abolished evolution would lead inexorably to a new form of whipping system under a new name. Once a side wants to win strongly enough they would recreate a form of whip.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,814
    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.

    You really think the SNP would team up with this rabble?
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    SeanT said:

    Estobar said:

    SeanT said:





    And his biggest shouting match has been with Krishnan G-M of Channel 4 News, a bastion of lefty journalism.

    He's successfully alienating everyone. Already.

    He was really good in the K G-M interview and you know it. And, yes, he is brave.

    I don't think he's alienating everyone already at all. He and his supporters have said for weeks that there's only one journalist who supports him: Owen Jones.

    I don't think he's interested in the MSM. It's a movement that's probably more rooted in social media than the old style establishment. Some, like Guido Fawkes and TSE, widely predicted that he didn't have anything like the support his followers claimed. They were profoundly wrong.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,814
    watford30 said:

    'I was the Chancellor of the Exchequer for London...'

    Ha ha ha. McDonnell is another crazy crackpot with an over inflated ego and sense of worth.

    Allegedly he was sacked by Ken Livingstone for being too left wing.
  • Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue..

    And NO ONE has been listening.

    For weeks, months, years, Cameron has been spending MORE on Syrian refugees than any other EU country - twice the next biggest contributor - Germany - and probably more than all the other European governments combined.

    And he did this because a Labour nonentity back bencher raised the topic in a speech few listened to and no one reported?
  • SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    I'm increasingly thinking he won't last the week. Not expecting a coup, but as Sean says, the pressure is already intolerable on him, and so he's probably going to snap, lamp a journalist or something, and then have no option but to resign.

    And he'll go down fighting, in a big rant, blaming the Murdoch press no doubt.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This is so funny, it's worth repeating

    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges
    Current Telegraph headline: "No top jobs for women in Corbyn's cabinet as Labour leader appoints man who wanted to assassinate Thatcher".
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    SeanT said:

    Estobar said:

    SeanT said:



    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, .

    No it doesn't. It shows how rightly he repudiates Murdoch and the Blairite media love in. But I'm afraid Primposies like you wouldn't understand that. Or, rather, you probably do and you're desperate to cling on to it.
    Primposies?!

    Er, OK.

    As to your point, it's not just Sky or the Sun who he's rubbing up against, is it? He's also refusing to talk to the BBC. That's "brave".

    And his biggest shouting match has been with Krishnan G-M of Channel 4 News, a bastion of lefty journalism.

    He's successfully alienating everyone. Already.
    He was really good in the K G-M interview and you know it. And, yes, he is brave.

    I don't think he's alienating everyone already at all. He and his supporters have said for weeks that there's only one journalist who supports him: Owen Jones.

    I don't think he's interested in the MSM. It's a movement that's probably more rooted in social media than the old style establishment. Some, like Guido Fawkes and TSE, widely predicted that he didn't have anything like the support his followers claimed. They were profoundly wrong.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    You really think the SNP would team up with this rabble?

    Always supposing Corbyn could get his own MPs to vote with him....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910
    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    You'd think that someone who has been doing all these rallies, who so strongly believes in what he says he believes in, who so wants to change Britain in the way that he wants, would be itching to get on every news channel he can to spread the good news.

    He's been ignored for 32 years. At last people want to hear what he has to say. And he simply runs away. It is most peculiar.

  • From memory, the 10 shortest-serving party leaders* since 1924** are:

    Arthur Henderson (Lab) 1931-2*** - resigned after his position as a non-MP became untenable
    Ming Campbell (LD) 2006-7 - resigned following criticism about his performance
    Anthony Eden (Con) 1955-7 - resigned over a mixture of ill health and criticism
    John Smith (Lab) 1992-4 - Died in office
    Iain Duncan-Smith (Con) - 2001-3 - deposed in party vote of no confidence
    Michael Howard (Con) - 2003-5 - resigned following election defeat
    Alec Douglas-Home (Con) 1963-5 - resigned following election defeat
    George Lansbury (Lab) 1932-5 - resigned following criticism of key policies
    Gordon Brown (Lab) - 2007-10 - resigned following election defeat
    Michael Foot (Lab) - 1980-3 - resigned following election defeat

    * Excluding temporary leaders serving pending the election of a permanent leader
    ** Chosen because the early 1920s saw Labour establish a formal party leader and the Conservatives and Liberals develop permanent overall leaders.
    *** Henderson had, however, served two previous periods as leader of Labour's MPs prior to the position of party leader being established.

    So, it's rare for new leaders to go mid-term but not unknown. The question is whether the political dynamics that will beset Corbyn's leadership throughout will overwhelm the support that propelled him there in the first place.

    The problem is that he and his supporters still seem to have their cake and eat it. They want to be outsiders protesting against the system but they also want the respect due of the leader of a major party and Shadow Prime Minister. They want access to the media but not scrutiny by it. And something will have to give.
  • Just watched the long silent walk..this fella seems to have a mental problem..
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 858

    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue..

    And NO ONE has been listening.

    For weeks, months, years, Cameron has been spending MORE on Syrian refugees than any other EU country - twice the next biggest contributor - Germany - and probably more than all the other European governments combined.

    And he did this because a Labour nonentity back bencher raised the topic in a speech few listened to and no one reported?
    Arguing his policy was a result of anything other than a response to Merkel's grandstanding is historical revisionism, despite it only being very recent...
  • The Shadow Cabinet list is nearly complete now.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_Opposition_Shadow_Cabinet_(United_Kingdom)

    Has there ever been a list so filled with people with zero experience (or even knowledge) of the departments they are shadowing?
  • alex. said:

    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.

    You really think the SNP would team up with this rabble?
    I've offered him 33/1, so we'll see.
  • He'll be gone by the end of next year. He has been worse than I could ever have hoped.

    The Sky walk was excruciating, but the reporter - relatively young - could and should have addressed him as Mr Corbyn, not Jeremy. After all, he is leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The title deserves some respect.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406
    Jeremy Corbyn says: "“We have delivered a unifying, dynamic, inclusive new Shadow Cabinet which for the first time ever has a majority of women. I am delighted that we have established a Shadow Cabinet position for mental health which is a matter I have long been interested in.

    :) Says it all really.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,918
    Sean_F said:

    FPT Southam

    My favourite Brian Close story was when he was fielding, and was struck on the head by a flying ball. He rounded on his colleague for coming to his aid rather than catching the ball as it flew off his head,

    http://www.sporting-heroes.net/cricket/england/brian-close-1900/test-profile-1949-76_a01119/
  • On topic I'd be tempted to buy. I think a putsch needs to come at the right time, Corbyn needs to be seen to fail. May 2016 is probably too soon to overcome the 60% vote, but May 2017 would be very tempting to me.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Interesting market. If corbyn wins the 2020 GE, it could make up 3500!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,839
    taffys said:

    You really think the SNP would team up with this rabble?

    @hugorifkind: One of the most fascinating bits of Corbyn era will be watching SNP try to maintain the whole "we're not nationalists, just socialists" lie.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,637
    New shadow Environment Sec Kerry McCarthy - who'll be dealing with farmers - is a vegan
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    felix said:

    Jeremy Corbyn says: "“We have delivered a unifying, dynamic, inclusive new Shadow Cabinet which for the first time ever has a majority of women. I am delighted that we have established a Shadow Cabinet position for mental health which is a matter I have long been interested in.

    :) Says it all really.

    What does? You poking fun at mental health? Or were you making a point about the majority of women?
  • isam said:

    Interesting market. If corbyn wins the 2020 GE, it could make up 3500!

    Part of my reason for selling would be that I think even those that have installed him might be looking to change to a younger, slightly less left-wing, candidate in 2018/9. Never mind the coups.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,232
    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.

    Are you IOS in disguise?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    New shadow Environment Sec Kerry McCarthy - who'll be dealing with farmers - is a vegan

    ROFL.

    Beyond Yes Minister. Well beyond.
  • watford30 said:

    'I was the Chancellor of the Exchequer for London...'

    Ha ha ha. McDonnell is another crazy crackpot with an over inflated ego and sense of worth.

    Even better, he was sacked by Ken Livingstone for not doing the job properly.
  • Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.

    It's much more likely Cameron will win by-elections after this absolute shambles
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    You'd think that someone who has been doing all these rallies, who so strongly believes in what he says he believes in, who so wants to change Britain in the way that he wants, would be itching to get on every news channel he can to spread the good news.

    He's been ignored for 32 years. At last people want to hear what he has to say. And he simply runs away. It is most peculiar.

    The tv news channels are yesterday. Social media groundswells are where it's at. He won 60% support. Sixty per cent. You might want to stop and think that maybe it's him changing the mix. He's not interested in the Westminster bubble. The first leader since Clement Attlee in that mould, and the first leader since Clement Attlee from an inner city constituency. The comparison's interesting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406
    Estobar said:

    felix said:

    Jeremy Corbyn says: "“We have delivered a unifying, dynamic, inclusive new Shadow Cabinet which for the first time ever has a majority of women. I am delighted that we have established a Shadow Cabinet position for mental health which is a matter I have long been interested in.

    :) Says it all really.

    What does? You poking fun at mental health? Or were you making a point about the majority of women?
    Nah m8 - just laughing at Jeremy..and you of course :)
  • I'm tempted to sell but best not to in this 'hiatus'
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Can I implore everybody not to be nasty to Estobar....??

    It's just too entertaining to have him or her quit.
  • SeanT said:

    Estobar said:

    SeanT said:



    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, .

    No it doesn't. It shows how rightly he repudiates Murdoch and the Blairite media love in. But I'm afraid Primposies like you wouldn't understand that. Or, rather, you probably do and you're desperate to cling on to it.
    Primposies?!

    Er, OK.

    As to your point, it's not just Sky or the Sun who he's rubbing up against, is it? He's also refusing to talk to the BBC. That's "brave".

    And his biggest shouting match has been with Krishnan G-M of Channel 4 News, a bastion of lefty journalism.

    He's successfully alienating everyone. Already.
    That's the most chilling thing about Corbyn: he regards proper scrutiny as an abuse of the media's position. Probably because he's an ideologue - he views any form of challenge to his ideology as ideologically motivated in and of itself.

    Question is: will he stand the heat? Or will he crack and resign?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    He's been ignored for 32 years. At last people want to hear what he has to say. And he simply runs away. It is most peculiar.

    What do you expect? He's an egotistical weirdo who only talks to believers.
  • Vegan appointed shadow agriculture minister.
  • watford30 said:

    'I was the Chancellor of the Exchequer for London...'

    Ha ha ha. McDonnell is another crazy crackpot with an over inflated ego and sense of worth.

    Even better, he was sacked by Ken Livingstone for not doing the job properly.
    Wasn't it because he was proposing a budget that was illegal?
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.

    It's much more likely Cameron will win by-elections after this absolute shambles
    Cameron can't even win his own votes in Parliament.

    Shambles you say?!
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406
    Estobar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    You'd think that someone who has been doing all these rallies, who so strongly believes in what he says he believes in, who so wants to change Britain in the way that he wants, would be itching to get on every news channel he can to spread the good news.

    He's been ignored for 32 years. At last people want to hear what he has to say. And he simply runs away. It is most peculiar.

    The tv news channels are yesterday. Social media groundswells are where it's at. He won 60% support. Sixty per cent. You might want to stop and think that maybe it's him changing the mix. He's not interested in the Westminster bubble. The first leader since Clement Attlee in that mould, and the first leader since Clement Attlee from an inner city constituency. The comparison's interesting.
    Would that be same social media that won the last election for Labou...oh wait! :)
  • A little scary to hear Owen Jones described as a Journalist..I always thought he was the milk monitor.. Obviously Estobar has never seen or met or watched a real journalist in action..
  • Pauly said:

    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue..

    And NO ONE has been listening.

    For weeks, months, years, Cameron has been spending MORE on Syrian refugees than any other EU country - twice the next biggest contributor - Germany - and probably more than all the other European governments combined.

    And he did this because a Labour nonentity back bencher raised the topic in a speech few listened to and no one reported?
    Arguing his policy was a result of anything other than a response to Merkel's grandstanding is historical revisionism, despite it only being very recent...
    How could a 'response to Merkel's grandstanding' have started three years ago when the UK started - and has continued - to provide more aid for Syrian refugees (twice Germany, and more than all other EU governments combined)?
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,370
    Well Jeremy's kind of blown any chance that he had to force the narrative about him by appointing McDonnell. It really is as bad as it gets.

    At least Foot had Healey as his Chancellor and other moderates around- Hattersley, Shore et al.

    In appointing McDonnell Corbyn has presented the most enormous open goal for the press to go digging for any mad quote McDonnell has said....and there are thousands....and in galvanising his own back benchers against him. Cornyn's double whammy. And the walk of silence...I know that Corbyn is unspun, but he needs to learn how to handle the press, otherwise it'll just be carnage, day in, day out.

    I just don't think the febrile atmosphere around Corbyn is going to die down, ever. The press are just going to have so much fun- there's just too much material, and in the land of social networks, there's going to be no amount of back benchers throwing knives around. On any slow news day, there will always be chaotic Corbyn stories to find.

    Can you honestly see 475 days of this? Really. I mean really?
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    felix said:

    Estobar said:

    felix said:

    Jeremy Corbyn says: "“We have delivered a unifying, dynamic, inclusive new Shadow Cabinet which for the first time ever has a majority of women. I am delighted that we have established a Shadow Cabinet position for mental health which is a matter I have long been interested in.

    :) Says it all really.

    What does? You poking fun at mental health? Or were you making a point about the majority of women?
    Nah m8 - just laughing at Jeremy..and you of course :)
    Oh right, because for a second it looked for all the world as if you were making fun of mental health.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,637
    Estobar said:

    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.

    It's much more likely Cameron will win by-elections after this absolute shambles
    Cameron can't even win his own votes in Parliament.

    Shambles you say?!
    Corbyn has just given Cam all of the Ulster unionist MPs.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,910
    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue. Cameron has reacted.

    Political discourse in Britain is moving left and this is the greatest gift Corbyn has given.

    Anyway, back to the more interesting question. Cameron has the thinnest majority in Parliament for c. 40 years. There are a number of ways in which the Conservatives could be out of office before 2020.

    Remember, the SNP will definitely ally with a Corbyn-led Labour. The LibDems? I don't know but they would probably never again go with the Tories. How many 'others' could Cameron rely on in the event that he loses 5 by-elections? Some Ulstermen, perhaps, but that's going to look as shoddy as some of you right wingers looking across at Corbyn.

    Interesting times ahead. Don't be too cocky you Conservatives. Don't be too cocky.

    Corbyn pushing the refugee issue for months, has he? Bollocks. He has been opposing any help for the Yazidis. Some of them are now refugees, those that haven't been murdered by IS. He has said nothing about the Assyrian and Syrian Christians being assassinated and persecuted and tortured.

    No-one has paid a blind bit of notice to anything Corbyn has said or done these last 3 decades because none of it was even worth spitting at. Now that he's leader he's avoided telling any of us - those of us not lucky enough to be at his rallies - anything.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,650

    Vegan appointed shadow agriculture minister.

    It has happened before.

    Alun Michael appointed a vegetarian Minister of Agriculture in the First (super-Blairite) Welsh Govt (Christine Gwyther)
  • Estobar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    You'd think that someone who has been doing all these rallies, who so strongly believes in what he says he believes in, who so wants to change Britain in the way that he wants, would be itching to get on every news channel he can to spread the good news.

    He's been ignored for 32 years. At last people want to hear what he has to say. And he simply runs away. It is most peculiar.

    Social media groundswells are where it's at
    Oh yes!

    Twitterdom!

    Where FM Salmond is negotiating Scottish Independence with PM Miliband.....
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited September 2015
    He's not on the BBC or ITV either.
    Estobar said:

    SeanT said:



    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, .

    No it doesn't. It shows how rightly he repudiates Murdoch and the Blairite media love in. But I'm afraid Primposies like you wouldn't understand that. Or, rather, you probably do and you're desperate to cling on to it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406

    Vegan appointed shadow agriculture minister.

    For some reason I immediately thought of Star Trek 'to boldly eat what no sane person has ate before' :)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,344
    I think Labour are stuck with old mardy arse for a while. If he were "impeached" within a year, the screeching and wailing from the twitterati would be mind-blowing.

    First they have to defend the indefensible for a while, then they'll go quiet until finally he will be airbrushed from history. In five years time it will never have happened. Like the shower scene in Dallas.
  • Pauly said:

    Maria Eagle is my MP - she has never leafleted my door or ever canvased my house. She is a terrible MP and not fit for the role of defence.

    Considering she has one of the safest seats in the country with a 69.1% vote and a 55%.4% majority (Tories second placed with 13.7%) I'm not sure her canvassing or not represent any connection to her ability for Defence. To be honest I'd expect her to be spending canvassing time in more marginal seats.

    The fact she is willing to be part of Corbyn's team OTOH shows she is not fit for the role of Defence.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Estobar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    You'd think that someone who has been doing all these rallies, who so strongly believes in what he says he believes in, who so wants to change Britain in the way that he wants, would be itching to get on every news channel he can to spread the good news.

    He's been ignored for 32 years. At last people want to hear what he has to say. And he simply runs away. It is most peculiar.

    The tv news channels are yesterday. Social media groundswells are where it's at. .
    Ah, it's the fabled ground game that swept them to victory in May 2015.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,293
    taffys said:

    Can I implore everybody not to be nasty to Estobar....??

    It's just too entertaining to have him or her quit.

    Seconded :D
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    Vegan appointed shadow agriculture minister.

    Fantastic :) I must admit, even that has me smiling. It should win the farming community over haha.

    I love seeing ideology back in British politics. Jeez I've missed it. The last time was Thatcher vs Foot. For 40 years we've been treated to contemptible shit from Blair and Cameron. And the reason, to me, why this is so important is that we're on perilous ground in domestic and international politics. The days when porn barons, oligarchs and media moguls could dictate British policy should be passing.

    Vive La Revolution.

    Oh, and do check out Henry's excellent thread one back. Top stuff. Spot on.
  • Estobar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    The stuff about Labour leaders being difficult to remove, the stuff about mandate, the stuff about Corbyn's massive self righteousness - this is all true, and yet might be irrelevant.

    The Long Walk to Silence shows just what an eggshell personality Corbyn is, how he can't abide scrutiny. He has now turned down Marr and the Today show. He wants to rotate PMQs. He runs away from journalists - he even tries to get the police to protect him from questions.

    This is a man without the mental skill set for the job. Therefore his job will be torture. It will be humiliating. Every day in the Commons will be horrible.

    What's more, he will have to suffer scorn and loathing from the Tories, Lib Dems, Ulster Unionists and Nats AND dislike and contempt from HIS OWN SIDE.

    Who could endure all THAT for five years? Not, I think, Jeremy Corbyn MP.

    Politically he should be set to lead Labour into the GE. Psychologically, I don't see it. Though he may surprise yet.

    You'd think that someone who has been doing all these rallies, who so strongly believes in what he says he believes in, who so wants to change Britain in the way that he wants, would be itching to get on every news channel he can to spread the good news.

    He's been ignored for 32 years. At last people want to hear what he has to say. And he simply runs away. It is most peculiar.

    The tv news channels are yesterday. Social media groundswells are where it's at. He won 60% support. Sixty per cent. You might want to stop and think that maybe it's him changing the mix. He's not interested in the Westminster bubble. The first leader since Clement Attlee in that mould, and the first leader since Clement Attlee from an inner city constituency. The comparison's interesting.
    He is insulting the public and appearing 'frit' and very arrogant by not conducting interviews with the broadcast media. The result will be that he is 'hounded' more and more and at some point he's going to lose it in a very big public way
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,406
    Estobar said:

    felix said:

    Estobar said:

    felix said:

    Jeremy Corbyn says: "“We have delivered a unifying, dynamic, inclusive new Shadow Cabinet which for the first time ever has a majority of women. I am delighted that we have established a Shadow Cabinet position for mental health which is a matter I have long been interested in.

    :) Says it all really.

    What does? You poking fun at mental health? Or were you making a point about the majority of women?
    Nah m8 - just laughing at Jeremy..and you of course :)
    Oh right, because for a second it looked for all the world as if you were making fun of mental health.
    I can't be responsible for what you think m8 - way too big a job :)
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 858

    Pauly said:

    Estobar said:

    For weeks, months, years Corbyn has been pushing the refugee issue..

    And NO ONE has been listening.

    For weeks, months, years, Cameron has been spending MORE on Syrian refugees than any other EU country - twice the next biggest contributor - Germany - and probably more than all the other European governments combined.

    And he did this because a Labour nonentity back bencher raised the topic in a speech few listened to and no one reported?
    Arguing his policy was a result of anything other than a response to Merkel's grandstanding is historical revisionism, despite it only being very recent...
    How could a 'response to Merkel's grandstanding' have started three years ago when the UK started - and has continued - to provide more aid for Syrian refugees (twice Germany, and more than all other EU governments combined)?
    Sorry, I meant the specific addition of 20k more over 5 years - you are right about everything else though.
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