The damage done to Scotland by the independence referendum battle has been revealed in a poll for The Times which shows that almost a quarter of Scots have been insulted or abused for the way they voted. Those who backed the Union last year are more likely to have been victims, according to the YouGov research.
The poll also shows that slightly more Scots think that the plebiscite left the country more divided than united.
Question of the day is when will the frothers stop wetting their pants about JC. Seems many on here lead sad lonely lives when they get so excited about so little, pretty amazing.
As far as singing Anthems is concerned, not everyone likes or wants to sing and not everyone knows the words. John Redwood, I believe, was famously embarrassed in his time as Welsh Secretary by trying his hand at singing. You can't make or force someone to sing the National Anthem if they don't want to and it doesn't make them a scintilla more or less patriotic if they don't.
Most people wouldn't know the words for the next two verses, even those who would call themselves patriotic, I would suspect.
More on topic and Jeremy Corbyn's debut as LOTO today and I hope for his sake it goes well though I imagine many on here already have their derogatory comment waiting to send as soon as the clock hits 12 or 12.15.
Most LOTOs start inauspiciously - Cameron had a few issues himself as I recall. The more worrying statistic for Corbyn is how few LOTOs in recent times have made it to the other side of the Despatch Box. Of the last five Prime Ministers, including the current incumbent, two never served as LOTO (or only in a caretaker capacity) (Major and Brown) which means Corbyn would have to emulate Thatcher, Blair and Cameron.
The list of failed LOTOs is impressive since 1979:
Before that, I think the last LOTO who didn't make it to No.10 was Hugh Gaitskell.
Now, one could argue Smith needs separate treatment as he probably would have won against Major in 1997 so that means six failures and two successes (since Thatcher was LOTO before 1979 and excluding Smith). That means Corbyn is 3/1 to be next Prime Minister though if I offered that I suspect I wouldn't get knocked over in the rush.
The remarkable aspect of that list of LOTO failures is the longevity of Neil Kinnock who was LOTO from autumn 1983 to the spring of 1992. I can't think of a longer serving LOTO who never became Prime Minister.
On topic - What chance that the PM and the Conservatives end up campaigning for Leave?
It's been made quite clear in the last couple of weeks that there's definitely no Status Quo; if there's not a very definite Associate Membership on the table then leaving and negotiating a trade deal is surely the best option as the EuroZone countries integrate further?
Cameron is balls deep in the EU, from time to time he tries to placate his eurosceptics but he can't change course now. And now he's realised he has a real fight on his hands which could mean ignominy and failure. The Corbyn circus will die down soon, the EU will finish Cameron.
Corbyn could be heading for the kind of popularity which only comes with cult status. 'Chance the gardener' might be a template. I heard George Mombiot explaining why not singing the Anthem was one of the most profound acts of leadership since Mao's long march.
All we need now is the book followed by the film. The phone ins and vox pops have started and you can be sure the Dispatches team are assembling as we speak .
Who'd have guessed that the loud mouthed Cassius Clay would become the most popular sports person on the planet? It was impossible to predict. He did everything to outrage conservatives but it touched a nerve.
The Tories would be very foolish to count their chickens. Public opinion can be very fickle
On topic, the EU is not a decided issue inside the Labour Party. Most are EU-loyalists, a minority want out, many are sceptical. The TUC - as Nick pointed out earlier - pointed at the elephant in the room on this debate and called it an elephant. WHich is this - the "EU" that so many in the Labour party are loyal too is the democratic pro-worker institution which has kept the peace and improved lives. If the EU has decided to be anti-democratic, pro-banker/anti-worker, and now wants to fall apart over migrants, then all the bits people had been loyal to had gone. The "EU" is not a monolith that never changes.
The last Lab position was that you wanted to be part of it from the inside and to effect change from within.
But now the Lab position is that...well the EU is changing..it is becoming something we didn't sign up for...we need to see how it develops.
ie exactly the same argument that UKIP is putting forward. As Simon Jenkins notes and NPXMPX2 agrees with.
So having spent the past five years fervently castigating eurosceptics for wanting to "wait and see", you now stand shoulder to shoulder with them on the EU.
The reality of course is that dress it up as you want, Jezza, as Jenkins also notes, continues to see the EU as a capitalist boss class conspiracy.
You lot are in more of a mess than perhaps you realise.
How can people possibly have a position of "remain" in all circumstances, regardless of the deal on the table?
It's like going to a call dealership and having an opening line to the salesman of "I'm going to buy this car regardless of the deal we come to" and then attempting to haggle about the price.
This, of course, assumes that Cameron will actually have substantive negotiations, which is far from a given, but failure to do so would drive many more into the "leave" camp.
Correct.
During the campaign people will be asked "if we weren't members would you vote to join?"
The answer will be a resounding NO
Quite simple really. Those people who are happy to be in the EU currently as things are will vote to stay even if Cameron gets absolutely nothing.
I'm stunned by this polling finding about the aftermath of the Indyref.
YouGov/Times poll
Have you personally been insulted or abused over your referendum vote.
Yes 24%
No 74%.
There was a clear difference in the experiences of respondents. Among “yes” supporters, 16 per cent had been abused and 82 per cent had not; on the “no” side, 32 per cent had been targeted, while 68 per cent had not.
What's most entertaining about that poll finding is when you realise who caused it...
Then, in the closing days, the tone and texture changed.
One man was responsible for this, taking a Yes campaign that had practically glowed with positivity and replacing it with an angry, finger-pointing demonstration of Nationalist grievance. My view is that this man halted the Yes campaign’s momentum and handed victory to the No camp. The campaign for independence was lost because of the wildly off-message behaviour, in those final days, of Alex Salmond.
On the other side, the entirely negative Better Together campaign which was barely ticking over was rejuvenated by the positive intervention of Gordon Brown. He saved the pound; he saved the world; he saved the union.
Best outcome I think is one that closes the interminable debate on this for the foreseeable future so either a Leave vote (by any margin) or a clear and unambiguous Remain vote (like in 75).
I wouldn't at this stage rule out either outcome. Nor would I assume that the TUC and Corbyn will be decisive any more than in 75 either. This debate will be decided based on the same way has long seemed likely - Remain campaigning on "jobs depend upon the EU" and Leave campaigning on Immigration and Sovereignty.
Seems a bit unfair to the remain side that the Leave side only need 50%+1 to win, yet Remain need 75%.
Leaver are like Jeremy Corbyn's friends/John McDonnell's heroes the IRA.
Leave only has to be lucky once,
Remain has to be lucky all the time.
Steady on! Not very nice to us Leavers.
I made the same analogy about the supporters of Scottish Independence.
So I'm really saying you're like the Nats
Oh I'm not helping am I?
Crawl back under your rock you cretinous turnip!
CR well done on the recycling , keep up the good work. A "halfwitted" after "you" would have emphasised your point just a tad.
I've not seen any paper mention Poverty Denial bar the Morning Star. Corby must be a bit miffed at that - no doubt its all a right wing media conspiracy that we're talking about his dress sense.
Mr. L, au contraire, there's usually very little mention of PMQs here. Much less than there was when, for example, it was Cameron and Brown [although that time did see some wild polling fluctuations and political fortunes].
Not really , not since tim/late of this parish/ Gordon Brown saving the world. Ed never really put a glove on Dave and the best they could do was whine about treating women disrespectfully and being a Bullingdon bully boy.
Corbyn has to have something sensational to KO Dave, I'd like to know what it is. From where I am looking Labour has nothing to say about anything that is relevant and not fantastically stupid (eg endless benefits , printing £50 billion and so on and so forth)
On topic - What chance that the PM and the Conservatives end up campaigning for Leave?
It's been made quite clear in the last couple of weeks that there's definitely no Status Quo; if there's not a very definite Associate Membership on the table then leaving and negotiating a trade deal is surely the best option as the EuroZone countries integrate further?
Cameron is balls deep in the EU, from time to time he tries to placate his eurosceptics but he can't change course now. And now he's realised he has a real fight on his hands which could mean ignominy and failure. The Corbyn circus will die down soon, the EU will finish Cameron.
Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not.
He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
Corbyn could be heading for the kind of popularity which only comes with cult status. 'Chance the gardener' might be a template. I heard George Mombiot explaining why not singing the Anthem was one of the most profound acts of leadership since Mao's long march.
All we need now is the book followed by the film. The phone ins and vox pops have started and you can be sure the Dispatches team are assembling as we speak .
Who'd have guessed that the loud mouthed Cassius Clay would become the most popular sports person on the planet? It was impossible to predict. He did everything to outrage conservatives but it touched a nerve.
The Tories would be very foolish to count their chickens. Public opinion can be very fickle
Roger, you are the patron saint of the perpetually wrong.
I'm stunned by this polling finding about the aftermath of the Indyref.
YouGov/Times poll
Have you personally been insulted or abused over your referendum vote.
Yes 24%
No 74%.
There was a clear difference in the experiences of respondents. Among “yes” supporters, 16 per cent had been abused and 82 per cent had not; on the “no” side, 32 per cent had been targeted, while 68 per cent had not.
What's most entertaining about that poll finding is when you realise who caused it...
Then, in the closing days, the tone and texture changed.
One man was responsible for this, taking a Yes campaign that had practically glowed with positivity and replacing it with an angry, finger-pointing demonstration of Nationalist grievance. My view is that this man halted the Yes campaign’s momentum and handed victory to the No camp. The campaign for independence was lost because of the wildly off-message behaviour, in those final days, of Alex Salmond.
How can people possibly have a position of "remain" in all circumstances, regardless of the deal on the table?
It's like going to a call dealership and having an opening line to the salesman of "I'm going to buy this car regardless of the deal we come to" and then attempting to haggle about the price.
This, of course, assumes that Cameron will actually have substantive negotiations, which is far from a given, but failure to do so would drive many more into the "leave" camp.
Correct.
During the campaign people will be asked "if we weren't members would you vote to join?"
The answer will be a resounding NO
Quite simple really. Those people who are happy to be in the EU currently as things are will vote to stay even if Cameron gets absolutely nothing.
Seems that way, pure tribalism and obduracy as I mentioned yesterday. He'll go through the pathetic charade of renegotiation while his position weakens all the time.
@Labourpaul: I've just been on @LBC after George Galloway said in those circumstances he would have sung the national anthem. George Galloway.
I think it was Owen Jones who tweeted how important it was for JC to make an effort to define himself early with Mr normal voter. His respectful protest yesterday certainly is a cut through way to do so.
Question of the day is when will the frothers stop wetting their pants about JC. Seems many on here lead sad lonely lives when they get so excited about so little, pretty amazing.
Unfair - everyone on here gets overly excited, or despondent, about such minor things that have varying levels of political significance. Tories won't stop getting excited about corbyn until he lands his first real blow back, since as we all know, being interested in politics, some people will never grow bored at focusing on something - corbyn and co sometimes still bang on about thatcher for Christs sake -
kle4 .... you do not convince me, some need a life
When did singing the National Anthem become a thing? Am I misremembering my youth or did we not stand silently?
In my youth, it was played in cinemas at the end of the show. Some stood to attention but most,including me, ignored it and walked out. Eventually it was quietly dropped. Progress. I dislike the North Korean tendency and the pressure associated with it.
Used to be on TV every night and in those days you had to run to get to the off switch , no remote to get shot of it quickly.
Wow, just heard what Kate Green said on Radio 4. In any normal circumstance she would be forced to resign, wouldn't she?
Would Jezza be able to find another shadow minister willing to take her place!?
Would Jezza be able to find another shadow minister who actually supports his policies?
Labour are all over the place. There is NO coherent message. Even if he left today, it will take an age to repair the damage.
Shocking. Radio 4 has a listenership of about not very many, and the papers can't cover it because they are full up with anthemgate, suitgate, and pen-in-shirt-pocketgate.
On topic - What chance that the PM and the Conservatives end up campaigning for Leave?
It's been made quite clear in the last couple of weeks that there's definitely no Status Quo; if there's not a very definite Associate Membership on the table then leaving and negotiating a trade deal is surely the best option as the EuroZone countries integrate further?
Cameron is balls deep in the EU, from time to time he tries to placate his eurosceptics but he can't change course now. And now he's realised he has a real fight on his hands which could mean ignominy and failure. The Corbyn circus will die down soon, the EU will finish Cameron.
Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not.
He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
I agree he will leave immediately after the referendum. It will define his career, if he wins, he rides off into the sunset having secured both the Union and the EU, if he loses he resigns in defeat, having divided the party.
Never underestimate the ego of these people, he will be acutely aware he has painted himself into a corner and now events, to a great extent, are out of his hands.
Wow, just heard what Kate Green said on Radio 4. In any normal circumstance she would be forced to resign, wouldn't she?
Would Jezza be able to find another shadow minister willing to take her place!?
Would Jezza be able to find another shadow minister who actually supports his policies?
Labour are all over the place. There is NO coherent message. Even if he left today, it will take an age to repair the damage.
Shocking. Radio 4 has a listenership of about not very many, and the papers can't cover it because they are full up with anthemgate, suitgate, and pen-in-shirt-pocketgate.
Yes, all those politicians wasting their time to be interviewed on Today, when they could be chatting to Lorraine on ITV about skirt lengths.
@PCollinsTimes: Corbyn TUC speech unspun. "A man who has never played the trumpet before insisting on a session of free form jazz": http://t.co/IPDrxmYynD
Question of the day is when will the frothers stop wetting their pants about JC. Seems many on here lead sad lonely lives when they get so excited about so little, pretty amazing.
Unfair - everyone on here gets overly excited, or despondent, about such minor things that have varying levels of political significance. Tories won't stop getting excited about corbyn until he lands his first real blow back, since as we all know, being interested in politics, some people will never grow bored at focusing on something - corbyn and co sometimes still bang on about thatcher for Christs sake -
kle4 .... you do not convince me, some need a life
Whilst I agree Corbyn's start has not been auspicious, remember well the lesson of Brown. Dire result, Labour on 19% in one poll, Purnell's resignation, and yet inertia and stubbornness meant there was no challenge.
Corbyn's in opposition, so it's not quite the same, but if he just refuses to leave and maintains support in the membership (those 30,000 who've joined will be his supporters), what can be done? In another leadership election, he'd probably just win again.
Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not.
He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
Indeed, and there is a substantial "Cameron" element out there - people who voted for him in May, not the Conservatives. Cameron has a personal following and where he goes, a number of people will follow.
Cameron's final view on LEAVE/REMAIN will therefore be critical irrespective of whether that view is the majority view within the Conservative Party or even within the Conservative membership because he will take a lot of people (especially non-Tories) with him.
IF he fails and the vote goes against him, his spell will be broken and he will be finished, of that I have no doubt just as, had the Conservatives lost in May, his "life expectancy" as Party leader could have been measured in hours, not days.
Back to my earlier, the commonality between Thatcher, Blair and Cameron is simple - they were able to persuade significant numbers of voters not normally affiliated to their party to vote for them. The list of failures were those who couldn't break the vote out of their core.
Can Corbyn expand Labour's vote beyond the traditional core as Blair did ? The general view on here so far suggests not, I'm to be convinced one way or the other. Passing judgement after just 96 hours in the job seems premature in the extreme. The fact a number of Green and previous non-voters backed Corbyn in the ballot offered some promise and the question for anti-Corbyn Labour voters is what will you do in 2020 ?
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
As Plato was suggesting a couple of days ago the latest industrial production figures are an obvious place to start for PMQs. What happened to the march of the makers? Why have the nationalised banks not been used to increase investment (the answers to that are a bit obvious but it is consistent with what he argued in his leadership campaign)?
I would also think that he might want to bring up the EU. Cameron used to have the extremely sensible policy of just not talking about the EU whenever possible so making him do so makes the Tory party uncomfortable. Perhaps seek an undertaking that any renegotiation will not involved coming out of the social chapter and implying this might become a sticking point for Labour?
Finally, he has to find something to say about the refugee crisis and what he considers the government's inadequate response. An obvious target is the thousands of unaccompanied children already in the EU: are we really refusing to help with them?
In short there is enough material to ask short sensible questions without making a tit of himself. My guess is that today at least Cameron will respond in kind and it will be a bit of a damp squib.
Given his enormous comfort blanket of supporters who'll be telling him this was all to be expected/how The Establishment are running scared blah blah, Evil Murdoch press... I suspect he's going to brave this out for a while yet.
Whilst I agree Corbyn's start has not been auspicious, remember well the lesson of Brown. Dire result, Labour on 19% in one poll, Purnell's resignation, and yet inertia and stubbornness meant there was no challenge.
Corbyn's in opposition, so it's not quite the same, but if he just refuses to leave and maintains support in the membership (those 30,000 who've joined will be his supporters), what can be done? In another leadership election, he'd probably just win again.
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The PLP can crticise Corbyn all they like, right up until they get deselcted by his 'new' followers
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
@MichaelLCrick: BBC cameraman in hospital last night with neck and face injuries after Corbyn aide allegedly assaulted him as Corbyn left his home yesterday
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The PLP can crticise Corbyn all they like, right up until they get deselcted by his 'new' followers
@MichaelLCrick: BBC cameraman in hospital last night with neck and face injuries after Corbyn aide allegedly assaulted him as Corbyn left his home yesterday
If true, will the PLP finally act to remove this stain on our national discourse as leader of the Party?
@MichaelLCrick: BBC cameraman in hospital last night with neck and face injuries after Corbyn aide allegedly assaulted him as Corbyn left his home yesterday
@MichaelLCrick: BBC cameraman in hospital last night with neck and face injuries after Corbyn aide allegedly assaulted him as Corbyn left his home yesterday
The ugly face of the Left emerges from the shadows.
Probably not the best way to get the Media on side.
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The PLP can crticise Corbyn all they like, right up until they get deselcted by his 'new' followers
Plato - on the boundary review:
The Commission currently plans to formally begin working on the next review in the spring of 2016, with the intention of submitting its final recommendations to government by the early autumn of 2018, as required by the legislation.
Pardon me this is a silly thread header. Benn has issued a statement saying there are no circumstances where labour would leave the EU
To be fair, Benn can say what he likes, but if Corbyn and his Shadow Chancellor decide to campaign to leave then that will be Labour's "official" position.
Of course others in the Labour Party can go off and campaign as they wish (like in 75) but as long as Corbyn leads the party he can pretty much do as he wishes.
"THE victory speech was prepared and top Nats believed they’d won — until the polls closed and the results rolled in.
Today we reveal how Yes chiefs wept as their defeat sunk in and publish the words Alex Salmond never got to utter."
"“There was just the four of us there and we gave each other a big hug for a couple of minutes and had a good Scottish greet. We just had a big greet. We all realised we’d lost.”"
The Labour Selectorate want to stay in the EU (77:13), so too do the Corbnyites (74:14) and they expect him to campaign to do so (57 in, 7 out, 20 not campaign either side)
I agree with Simon Jenkins on this - a very rare thing. I expect we'll end up voting for In, and personally I probably will anyway but that's no reason to sell our collective support for free. The TUC line that if Cameron negotiates away a lot of what we like about the EU, he can't count on our support makes sense to me. He wants us to back a cross-party line, fine, but then the negotiation package needs to be cross-party too.
Well that's clear then. Wouldn't "let's just wait and see" have been more succinct?
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The PLP can crticise Corbyn all they like, right up until they get deselcted by his 'new' followers
Formal report must be issued between 1 Sept 2018 and 1 Oct 2018.
However there will be proposals for consultation at interim stages before then.
Work starts in Jan/Feb 2016 - I think the initial proposals should come out mid 2016 ish.
Given his enormous comfort blanket of supporters who'll be telling him this was all to be expected/how The Establishment are running scared blah blah, Evil Murdoch press... I suspect he's going to brave this out for a while yet.
Whilst I agree Corbyn's start has not been auspicious, remember well the lesson of Brown. Dire result, Labour on 19% in one poll, Purnell's resignation, and yet inertia and stubbornness meant there was no challenge.
Corbyn's in opposition, so it's not quite the same, but if he just refuses to leave and maintains support in the membership (those 30,000 who've joined will be his supporters), what can be done? In another leadership election, he'd probably just win again.
In the first minute of his acceptance speech on Saturday he was critisising the press - maybe with hindsight not the most sensible strategy? Even the BBC don't like him after he cancelled Marr on Sunday and Today on Monday.
Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not.
He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
Indeed, and there is a substantial "Cameron" element out there - people who voted for him in May, not the Conservatives. Cameron has a personal following and where he goes, a number of people will follow.
Cameron's final view on LEAVE/REMAIN will therefore be critical irrespective of whether that view is the majority view within the Conservative Party or even within the Conservative membership because he will take a lot of people (especially non-Tories) with him.
IF he fails and the vote goes against him, his spell will be broken and he will be finished, of that I have no doubt just as, had the Conservatives lost in May, his "life expectancy" as Party leader could have been measured in hours, not days.
Back to my earlier, the commonality between Thatcher, Blair and Cameron is simple - they were able to persuade significant numbers of voters not normally affiliated to their party to vote for them. The list of failures were those who couldn't break the vote out of their core.
Can Corbyn expand Labour's vote beyond the traditional core as Blair did ? The general view on here so far suggests not, I'm to be convinced one way or the other. Passing judgement after just 96 hours in the job seems premature in the extreme. The fact a number of Green and previous non-voters backed Corbyn in the ballot offered some promise and the question for anti-Corbyn Labour voters is what will you do in 2020 ?
Good post (in other words I agree). The desire of both inners and outers to have Cameron on their side is very strong. Some on here, such as Casino_Royale are practically offering him a sainthood if he cannot bring himself to argue for In.
I think a lot of people in this country trust his judgement ahead of any other politician around today. Not the committed of course but the much more substantial its all a bit difficult crowd. If Cameron says we have a future outside the EU we do and we will very likely find out if he is right in due course.
@MichaelLCrick: BBC cameraman in hospital last night with neck and face injuries after Corbyn aide allegedly assaulted him as Corbyn left his home yesterday
Poor old Oisin Tymon's career change not going well..
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
Someone (Nick?) said that wouldn't happen a few weeks ago ...
It makes total civil war or a split all the more likely. Labour's not only moving away from its voters, its moving away from its MPs. And the behaviour of 'New Old Labour' to MPs who have the temerity to be Blairite - e.g. Kendall - shows that these newcomers will not be in the mood to compromise.
The BWP tendency are exactly the supporters Labour does not need.
"THE victory speech was prepared and top Nats believed they’d won — until the polls closed and the results rolled in.
Today we reveal how Yes chiefs wept as their defeat sunk in and publish the words Alex Salmond never got to utter."
"“There was just the four of us there and we gave each other a big hug for a couple of minutes and had a good Scottish greet. We just had a big greet. We all realised we’d lost.”"
'The First Minister, his No2 Nicola Sturgeon and finance chief John Swinney cried and hugged each other in the early hours of September 19 last year as the Yes campaign’s defeat became clear.'
Only thing that could have derailed Cameron at PMQs today would have been bad employment figures this morning. However since unemployment is down to 5.5% and average pay is up by 2.9% he can always fall back on that if things get difficult.
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The PLP can crticise Corbyn all they like, right up until they get deselcted by his 'new' followers
Plato - on the boundary review:
The Commission currently plans to formally begin working on the next review in the spring of 2016, with the intention of submitting its final recommendations to government by the early autumn of 2018, as required by the legislation.
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The lunatics really are taking over the asylum - all the new joiners are those with the views that Kinnock spent considerable effort forcing out of the party 30 years ago. Having lauded the election of Ed 5 years ago, he must be absolutely furious now with the legacy left behind.
Perhaps the shadow cabinet are playing a blinder! Reverse expectations management. You make everone think Cam is going to have it easy, then BOOM! he gets Corbyned at the despatch box.
I agree. As I've said before, "don't get out to a change bowler"
Mr. Slackbladder, Polybius wrote that the evil twin of democracy was anarchy [perhaps mob rule fits better here]. That may be what Labour's got itself.
The MPs only have themselves to blame. They're the ones who put him on the ballot. You can't leave a drunk in a brewery then act surprised when they get sozzled.
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The lunatics really are taking over the asylum - all the new joiners are those with the views that Kinnock spent considerable effort forcing out of the party 30 years ago. Having lauded the election of Ed 5 years ago, he must be absolutely furious now with the legacy left behind.
Is someone cross-checking this list with Green Party HQ?
Given his enormous comfort blanket of supporters who'll be telling him this was all to be expected/how The Establishment are running scared blah blah, Evil Murdoch press... I suspect he's going to brave this out for a while yet.
Whilst I agree Corbyn's start has not been auspicious, remember well the lesson of Brown. Dire result, Labour on 19% in one poll, Purnell's resignation, and yet inertia and stubbornness meant there was no challenge.
Corbyn's in opposition, so it's not quite the same, but if he just refuses to leave and maintains support in the membership (those 30,000 who've joined will be his supporters), what can be done? In another leadership election, he'd probably just win again.
In the first minute of his acceptance speech on Saturday he was critisising the press - maybe with hindsight not the most sensible strategy? Even the BBC don't like him after he cancelled Marr on Sunday and Today on Monday.
On topic - What chance that the PM and the Conservatives end up campaigning for Leave?
It's been made quite clear in the last couple of weeks that there's definitely no Status Quo; if there's not a very definite Associate Membership on the table then leaving and negotiating a trade deal is surely the best option as the EuroZone countries integrate further?
Cameron is balls deep in the EU, from time to time he tries to placate his eurosceptics but he can't change course now. And now he's realised he has a real fight on his hands which could mean ignominy and failure. The Corbyn circus will die down soon, the EU will finish Cameron.
Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not. He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
I agree he will leave immediately after the referendum. It will define his career, if he wins, he rides off into the sunset having secured both the Union and the EU, if he loses he resigns in defeat, having divided the party. Never underestimate the ego of these people, he will be acutely aware he has painted himself into a corner and now events, to a great extent, are out of his hands.
Thats a naive way of looking at it. As soon as a politician starts looking for and worrying about 'events' he is in trouble. Stuff happens, you have to deal with it. You cannot let it get in the way of what you want to do. Cameron has already been proved right over migrants. The EU is ripe for renegotiation. Frankly I can see Cameron resigning in time for a leadership election at the end of 2019 and simply staying on as PM whilst Osborne (the winner) leads the election campaign. Even if that is fanciful it would make sense for the winner (likely Osborne) to be PM for 6 months before the election, Cameron will then have virtually served a full 5 year term. But who knows what event will befall any of us before then.
Only thing that could have derailed Cameron at PMQs today would have been bad employment figures this morning. However since unemployment is down to 5.5% and average pay is up by 2.9% he can always fall back on that if things get difficult.
'Question of the day is when will the frothers stop wetting their pants about JC. Seems many on here lead sad lonely lives when they get so excited about so little, pretty amazing'
Cheer yourself up Malc. Your leaderene has finally made it into Vogue. All those years wearing tartan wedges..........
Good post (in other words I agree). The desire of both inners and outers to have Cameron on their side is very strong. Some on here, such as Casino_Royale are practically offering him a sainthood if he cannot bring himself to argue for In.
I think a lot of people in this country trust his judgement ahead of any other politician around today. Not the committed of course but the much more substantial its all a bit difficult crowd. If Cameron says we have a future outside the EU we do and we will very likely find out if he is right in due course.
Thank you for the kind word, David. The problem is going to be the reaction of the jilted side so to speak.
IF Cameron opts for REMAIN and that side wins, what happens after Cameron leaves office ? Will this be a Neverendum as well especially if the next Conservative leader is someone who voted to LEAVE ?
I know you're a fan as many are on here but Cameron made an appalling blunder in pandering to UKIP (who were much less of a threat as it turned out) and conceding the referendum. As Wilson did in 1975, it could be a case of "apres moi, le deluge" as once Cameron has gone, there will be no one strong enough to hold the opposing forces together within the Conservatives and having had one referendum, well, why not have another and if we have one on EU membership then why not have another on Scottish Independence and so it goes.
It's surprisingly early days, but the Tories might already need to be thinking in terms of launching a "Save Corbyn" campaign. Operation "install Corbyn" is in danger of falling apart far too quickly.
To use a cricketing analogy again, do you choose to see him off or farm him for as many as you can until the captain realises what you're doing. Hold on, he is the captain, he'll never realise until someone tells him but will he listen?
Everyone convinced Cam will back "Remain" - come hell or high water - I am not so sure.
Cameron just needs to look at Ken Clarke. Ken could have been one of this country's finest politicians, possibly Prime Ministers, if only he had been prepared to take a pragmatic view on Europe. His bloody-minded refusal to concede an inch condemned him to the footnotes.
Cameron has a perfect opportunity to tell the EU leaders - who apparently all hate him anyway, so feck 'em - to get their act together and embrace meaningful and desperately required change - or he will recommend that the UK leaves.
Who knows, they might now just take notice.
Cameron's greatest legacy might be forcing the EU to address deep problems that the Eurocrats perpetually sweep under the carpet.
@MichaelLCrick: Video - up soon - of incident outside Corbyn home yesterday shows camera going to ground & voice of someone who seems to say "I warned you"
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The PLP can crticise Corbyn all they like, right up until they get deselcted by his 'new' followers
Plato - on the boundary review:
The Commission currently plans to formally begin working on the next review in the spring of 2016, with the intention of submitting its final recommendations to government by the early autumn of 2018, as required by the legislation.
I think one thing to bear in mind regarding potential deselections is that the new members will not be evenly distributed across all constituencies. Defectors from the Greens will be predominently middle class living in the big cities - I would expect lots in London and university seats. So Chuka might have to watch his back but say Yvette won't have anything to worry about.
On topic - What chance that the PM and the Conservatives end up campaigning for Leave?
It's been made quite clear in the last couple of weeks that there's definitely no Status Quo; if there's not a very definite Associate Membership on the table then leaving and negotiating a trade deal is surely the best option as the EuroZone countries integrate further?
Cameron is balls deep in the EU, from time to time he tries to placate his eurosceptics but he can't change course now. And now he's realised he has a real fight on his hands which could mean ignominy and failure. The Corbyn circus will die down soon, the EU will finish Cameron.
Cameron specifically opposes 'ever closer union' - federalism - and opposes being caught up in the inevitable closer monetary fiscal and thus political union of the eurozone. Only the tories are ever going to keep us out of that.
Cameron needs to be really careful here. On the line is not just his job but his legacy and how he is seen by history. I can see several outcomes:
1) Cameron achieves major renegotiation and adequately addresses the challenges we face from the EU, especially those the public are most worried about. He campaigns for Remain and wins. He's seen to once again defy expectations and goes down as one of our better Prime Ministers by moderate analysts and most of the public, although the Eurosceptics and Left never like him.
2) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns to stay in and wins. In the following years discontent with the EU continues to grow, especially as the public get even more sick of immigration, especially the second hand asylum seekers. The party is split as half of it believes Cameron sold a dud and he is looked back on as mangling the issue as New Labour mangled devolution. There's a small group of left Tories that still like him, but everyone else dislikes him for various reasons.
3) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns for in and loses. He immediately has to resign and we face a volatile election where God who knows wins. The UK has a very tumuotuous few years and Cameron is seen as a political failure across the board, even among One Nation Tories, as he failed to defend their interests. This is a disaster for his legacy.
4) Cameron gets a weak negotiation, and publicly says the EU, despite his best efforts is unwilling to take the necessary reform steps for the 21st century. He leads the out campaign which wins solidly. He stays in place to oversee the change, negotiates new trade deals with the EU, USA and India. He starts on domestic reforms previously blocked by the EU, such as overhauling immigration properly. Years hence, divergent growth rates of the rump EU and the UK is the metric used to judge the split and this reflects well on the decision. Cameron is seen a heroic lion by the right and one of the all time great Conservative PMs. Groups on the left dislike him but blame most of the problems on the Corbyn catastrophe.
Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not. He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour. I agree he will leave immediately after the referendum. It will define his career, if he wins, he rides off into the sunset having secured both the Union and the EU, if he loses he resigns in defeat, having divided the party. Never underestimate the ego of these people, he will be acutely aware he has painted himself into a corner and now events, to a great extent, are out of his hands.
Thats a naive way of looking at it. As soon as a politician starts looking for and worrying about 'events' he is in trouble. Stuff happens, you have to deal with it. You cannot let it get in the way of what you want to do. Cameron has already been proved right over migrants. The EU is ripe for renegotiation. Frankly I can see Cameron resigning in time for a leadership election at the end of 2019 and simply staying on as PM whilst Osborne (the winner) leads the election campaign. Even if that is fanciful it would make sense for the winner (likely Osborne) to be PM for 6 months before the election, Cameron will then have virtually served a full 5 year term. But who knows what event will befall any of us before then.
Hang on, you call me naïve then say Cameron has been proven right over migrants - pull the other one. The crisis at the moment proves that Cameron massively underestimated the immigration problem that others have been warning of for ages.
The events I refer to are in Eastern Europe and beyond, completely beyond his control. Do you seriously think the refugee situation strengthens his position of REMAIN?
And please outline the terms of renegotiations, beyond a few vague mutterings nobody knows what they are.
The problem for the PLP comes if people keep joining - about 60k post-Corbyn would probably cement the radical left to ensure any coup attempt brings both sides down with it.
The PLP can crticise Corbyn all they like, right up until they get deselcted by his 'new' followers
Plato - on the boundary review:
The Commission currently plans to formally begin working on the next review in the spring of 2016, with the intention of submitting its final recommendations to government by the early autumn of 2018, as required by the legislation.
I think one thing to bear in mind regarding potential deselections is that the new members will not be evenly distributed across all constituencies. Defectors from the Greens will be predominently middle class living in the big cities - I would expect lots in London and university seats. So Chuka might have to watch his back but say Yvette won't have anything to worry about.
And also a fair chunk will be in constituencies currently held by other parties, which effects future selections but reduces the influence on reselections
Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?
1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen
2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian
3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
Lol - you haven't written any yet
Give it time. The piece I'm writing now is
To understand the disaster that is the Corbyn leadership is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets Three Mile Island meets Tron 2 meets the Battle of Zama.
Too clunky
Howabout paralleling Lot/Gommorah with JC/Labour?
I do like Biblical analogies.
I was proud of the Book of Revelation references I got in yesterday.
But Tron 2 allows me to reference Olivia Wilde, a future member of my harem
Comments
LOL, Yougov ask a bunch of jessies if they are cowardy custards and did someone say Boo
Much better than usual
As far as singing Anthems is concerned, not everyone likes or wants to sing and not everyone knows the words. John Redwood, I believe, was famously embarrassed in his time as Welsh Secretary by trying his hand at singing. You can't make or force someone to sing the National Anthem if they don't want to and it doesn't make them a scintilla more or less patriotic if they don't.
Most people wouldn't know the words for the next two verses, even those who would call themselves patriotic, I would suspect.
More on topic and Jeremy Corbyn's debut as LOTO today and I hope for his sake it goes well though I imagine many on here already have their derogatory comment waiting to send as soon as the clock hits 12 or 12.15.
Most LOTOs start inauspiciously - Cameron had a few issues himself as I recall. The more worrying statistic for Corbyn is how few LOTOs in recent times have made it to the other side of the Despatch Box. Of the last five Prime Ministers, including the current incumbent, two never served as LOTO (or only in a caretaker capacity) (Major and Brown) which means Corbyn would have to emulate Thatcher, Blair and Cameron.
The list of failed LOTOs is impressive since 1979:
Foot, Kinnock, Smith, Hague, Duncan-Smith, Howard, Miliband
Before that, I think the last LOTO who didn't make it to No.10 was Hugh Gaitskell.
Now, one could argue Smith needs separate treatment as he probably would have won against Major in 1997 so that means six failures and two successes (since Thatcher was LOTO before 1979 and excluding Smith). That means Corbyn is 3/1 to be next Prime Minister though if I offered that I suspect I wouldn't get knocked over in the rush.
The remarkable aspect of that list of LOTO failures is the longevity of Neil Kinnock who was LOTO from autumn 1983 to the spring of 1992. I can't think of a longer serving LOTO who never became Prime Minister.
All we need now is the book followed by the film. The phone ins and vox pops have started and you can be sure the Dispatches team are assembling as we speak .
Who'd have guessed that the loud mouthed Cassius Clay would become the most popular sports person on the planet? It was impossible to predict. He did everything to outrage conservatives but it touched a nerve.
The Tories would be very foolish to count their chickens. Public opinion can be very fickle
Here's a good and typical speech from EdM explaining it all for you.
Here's a good article explaining that being pro-Europe is Lab's settled position.
(Note: not too much googling required)
But now the Lab position is that...well the EU is changing..it is becoming something we didn't sign up for...we need to see how it develops.
ie exactly the same argument that UKIP is putting forward. As Simon Jenkins notes and NPXMPX2 agrees with.
So having spent the past five years fervently castigating eurosceptics for wanting to "wait and see", you now stand shoulder to shoulder with them on the EU.
The reality of course is that dress it up as you want, Jezza, as Jenkins also notes, continues to see the EU as a capitalist boss class conspiracy.
You lot are in more of a mess than perhaps you realise.
Will he save the VOW which is circling the drain
What a strange analogy, Clay/Ali was the best boxer in history with enormous charisma, comparing him with Corbyn is ridiculous.
He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
Scott has added number two's to wetting this morning, he is in toilet heaven.
Labour are all over the place. There is NO coherent message. Even if he left today, it will take an age to repair the damage.
Forget for a moment the broad brush stuff.
In terms of policies - some, on their own, are very popular - like "taxing bankers", nationalising railways.
But some are very unpopular - like getting rid of the benefits cap.
Yet he's made no attempt at all to just focus on the popular ones - hence his comments on the benefits cap and the resulting problems this morning.
It's as if he's not going to attempt to have any tactics - he'll just say what he thinks whether popular or not.
http://t.co/XVkfR6RrHG http://t.co/EGikFxVHzH
Never underestimate the ego of these people, he will be acutely aware he has painted himself into a corner and now events, to a great extent, are out of his hands.
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-demon-hunting/
It's easily the best story about a cyborg pirate bounty hunter in space I've ever written.
Until he gets some sensible expertise around him - he's going to get mullahed every day.
What's happened to his campaign team??
As a great man once said "this sucker is going down"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11866883/There-are-countless-sworn-assassins-waiting-to-knife-Jeremy-Corbyn-in-the-back.-Is-he-ready-for-them.html
Benn has issued a statement saying there are no circumstances where labour would leave the EU
Corbyn's in opposition, so it's not quite the same, but if he just refuses to leave and maintains support in the membership (those 30,000 who've joined will be his supporters), what can be done? In another leadership election, he'd probably just win again.
Cameron's final view on LEAVE/REMAIN will therefore be critical irrespective of whether that view is the majority view within the Conservative Party or even within the Conservative membership because he will take a lot of people (especially non-Tories) with him.
IF he fails and the vote goes against him, his spell will be broken and he will be finished, of that I have no doubt just as, had the Conservatives lost in May, his "life expectancy" as Party leader could have been measured in hours, not days.
Back to my earlier, the commonality between Thatcher, Blair and Cameron is simple - they were able to persuade significant numbers of voters not normally affiliated to their party to vote for them. The list of failures were those who couldn't break the vote out of their core.
Can Corbyn expand Labour's vote beyond the traditional core as Blair did ? The general view on here so far suggests not, I'm to be convinced one way or the other. Passing judgement after just 96 hours in the job seems premature in the extreme. The fact a number of Green and previous non-voters backed Corbyn in the ballot offered some promise and the question for anti-Corbyn Labour voters is what will you do in 2020 ?
I would also think that he might want to bring up the EU. Cameron used to have the extremely sensible policy of just not talking about the EU whenever possible so making him do so makes the Tory party uncomfortable. Perhaps seek an undertaking that any renegotiation will not involved coming out of the social chapter and implying this might become a sticking point for Labour?
Finally, he has to find something to say about the refugee crisis and what he considers the government's inadequate response. An obvious target is the thousands of unaccompanied children already in the EU: are we really refusing to help with them?
In short there is enough material to ask short sensible questions without making a tit of himself. My guess is that today at least Cameron will respond in kind and it will be a bit of a damp squib.
BBC cameraman in hospital last night with neck and face injuries after Corbyn aide allegedly assaulted him as Corbyn left his home yesterday
OOOOHHHH BOY
@DraculaXmina: @JohnRentoul What drugs do you use? Are they expensive?
@MichaelLCrick: BBC cameraman in hospital last night with neck and face injuries after Corbyn aide allegedly assaulted him as Corbyn left his home yesterday
Probably not the best way to get the Media on side.
The Commission currently plans to formally begin working on the next review in the spring of 2016, with the intention of submitting its final recommendations to government by the early autumn of 2018, as required by the legislation.
Of course others in the Labour Party can go off and campaign as they wish (like in 75) but as long as Corbyn leads the party he can pretty much do as he wishes.
No paywall - just top entertainment.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/scottishpolitics/indyref/6641652/No-what-a-night.html
"THE victory speech was prepared and top Nats believed they’d won — until the polls closed and the results rolled in.
Today we reveal how Yes chiefs wept as their defeat sunk in and publish the words Alex Salmond never got to utter."
"“There was just the four of us there and we gave each other a big hug for a couple of minutes and had a good Scottish greet. We just had a big greet. We all realised we’d lost.”"
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iebvdv9xkl/LabourSelectorate_Europe_W2.pdf
I'd prefer to see him out of the job.
However there will be proposals for consultation at interim stages before then.
Work starts in Jan/Feb 2016 - I think the initial proposals should come out mid 2016 ish.
I think a lot of people in this country trust his judgement ahead of any other politician around today. Not the committed of course but the much more substantial its all a bit difficult crowd. If Cameron says we have a future outside the EU we do and we will very likely find out if he is right in due course.
It makes total civil war or a split all the more likely. Labour's not only moving away from its voters, its moving away from its MPs. And the behaviour of 'New Old Labour' to MPs who have the temerity to be Blairite - e.g. Kendall - shows that these newcomers will not be in the mood to compromise.
The BWP tendency are exactly the supporters Labour does not need.
Big Jessies.
EDIT and
Q4 2015 - 4.5/5.8
Q1 2016 - 4.2/6.0
Cameraman in alleged incident outside Corbyn home was seen in hospital wearing neck brace & with bruise to his face
The MPs only have themselves to blame. They're the ones who put him on the ballot. You can't leave a drunk in a brewery then act surprised when they get sozzled.
This report of a BBC man injured doesn't surprise me, but it's just pouring petrol on the media.
Cameron has already been proved right over migrants. The EU is ripe for renegotiation.
Frankly I can see Cameron resigning in time for a leadership election at the end of 2019 and simply staying on as PM whilst Osborne (the winner) leads the election campaign. Even if that is fanciful it would make sense for the winner (likely Osborne) to be PM for 6 months before the election, Cameron will then have virtually served a full 5 year term.
But who knows what event will befall any of us before then.
According to The Mirror, Jenna Coleman will leave Doctor Who for a starring role in ITV’s Queen Victoria drama series
http://bit.ly/1W2c8N7
IF Cameron opts for REMAIN and that side wins, what happens after Cameron leaves office ? Will this be a Neverendum as well especially if the next Conservative leader is someone who voted to LEAVE ?
I know you're a fan as many are on here but Cameron made an appalling blunder in pandering to UKIP (who were much less of a threat as it turned out) and conceding the referendum. As Wilson did in 1975, it could be a case of "apres moi, le deluge" as once Cameron has gone, there will be no one strong enough to hold the opposing forces together within the Conservatives and having had one referendum, well, why not have another and if we have one on EU membership then why not have another on Scottish Independence and so it goes.
Cameron has a perfect opportunity to tell the EU leaders - who apparently all hate him anyway, so feck 'em - to get their act together and embrace meaningful and desperately required change - or he will recommend that the UK leaves.
Who knows, they might now just take notice.
Cameron's greatest legacy might be forcing the EU to address deep problems that the Eurocrats perpetually sweep under the carpet.
1) Cameron achieves major renegotiation and adequately addresses the challenges we face from the EU, especially those the public are most worried about. He campaigns for Remain and wins. He's seen to once again defy expectations and goes down as one of our better Prime Ministers by moderate analysts and most of the public, although the Eurosceptics and Left never like him.
2) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns to stay in and wins. In the following years discontent with the EU continues to grow, especially as the public get even more sick of immigration, especially the second hand asylum seekers. The party is split as half of it believes Cameron sold a dud and he is looked back on as mangling the issue as New Labour mangled devolution. There's a small group of left Tories that still like him, but everyone else dislikes him for various reasons.
3) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns for in and loses. He immediately has to resign and we face a volatile election where God who knows wins. The UK has a very tumuotuous few years and Cameron is seen as a political failure across the board, even among One Nation Tories, as he failed to defend their interests. This is a disaster for his legacy.
4) Cameron gets a weak negotiation, and publicly says the EU, despite his best efforts is unwilling to take the necessary reform steps for the 21st century. He leads the out campaign which wins solidly. He stays in place to oversee the change, negotiates new trade deals with the EU, USA and India. He starts on domestic reforms previously blocked by the EU, such as overhauling immigration properly. Years hence, divergent growth rates of the rump EU and the UK is the metric used to judge the split and this reflects well on the decision. Cameron is seen a heroic lion by the right and one of the all time great Conservative PMs. Groups on the left dislike him but blame most of the problems on the Corbyn catastrophe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886
Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not.
He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
I agree he will leave immediately after the referendum. It will define his career, if he wins, he rides off into the sunset having secured both the Union and the EU, if he loses he resigns in defeat, having divided the party.
Never underestimate the ego of these people, he will be acutely aware he has painted himself into a corner and now events, to a great extent, are out of his hands.
Thats a naive way of looking at it. As soon as a politician starts looking for and worrying about 'events' he is in trouble. Stuff happens, you have to deal with it. You cannot let it get in the way of what you want to do.
Cameron has already been proved right over migrants. The EU is ripe for renegotiation.
Frankly I can see Cameron resigning in time for a leadership election at the end of 2019 and simply staying on as PM whilst Osborne (the winner) leads the election campaign. Even if that is fanciful it would make sense for the winner (likely Osborne) to be PM for 6 months before the election, Cameron will then have virtually served a full 5 year term.
But who knows what event will befall any of us before then.
Hang on, you call me naïve then say Cameron has been proven right over migrants - pull the other one. The crisis at the moment proves that Cameron massively underestimated the immigration problem that others have been warning of for ages.
The events I refer to are in Eastern Europe and beyond, completely beyond his control. Do you seriously think the refugee situation strengthens his position of REMAIN?
And please outline the terms of renegotiations, beyond a few vague mutterings nobody knows what they are.