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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Mr Corbyn could end Cameron’s Premiership

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  • Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: WATCH: Moment BBC Cameraman Floored Outside Corbyn's Home [VIDEO] http://t.co/eVv2JAMUE9

    Was he actually assaulted? Corbyn looked reasonably cheerful to me. Couldn't really tell what happened from the footage.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Just on the migrant/refugee crisis, one could argue the only country really taking decisive action to halt the migrant flow is Russia by arming Assad but that's a tad cynical.

    This is going to roll westwards from Hungary/Serbia to Serbia/Croatia (in the EU but not Schengen) and then to Croatia/Slovenia (EU and Schengen).

    It's all very well applauding the Government line on only taking refugees from the camps but to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.

    Once again, we come back to trying to find a political and military endgame to the Syrian conflict - Russia seems content to back Assad though I suspect with qualifications for now and while stopping IS is and has to be a priority, for me it has to be part of a much wider solution to this which may involve the departure of Assad but has to contain guarantees for the Alawites and other minorities within a federal or cantonised Syria.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:


    Good post (in other words I agree). The desire of both inners and outers to have Cameron on their side is very strong. Some on here, such as Casino_Royale are practically offering him a sainthood if he cannot bring himself to argue for In.

    I think a lot of people in this country trust his judgement ahead of any other politician around today. Not the committed of course but the much more substantial its all a bit difficult crowd. If Cameron says we have a future outside the EU we do and we will very likely find out if he is right in due course.

    Thank you for the kind word, David. The problem is going to be the reaction of the jilted side so to speak.

    IF Cameron opts for REMAIN and that side wins, what happens after Cameron leaves office ? Will this be a Neverendum as well especially if the next Conservative leader is someone who voted to LEAVE ?

    I know you're a fan as many are on here but Cameron made an appalling blunder in pandering to UKIP (who were much less of a threat as it turned out) and conceding the referendum. As Wilson did in 1975, it could be a case of "apres moi, le deluge" as once Cameron has gone, there will be no one strong enough to hold the opposing forces together within the Conservatives and having had one referendum, well, why not have another and if we have one on EU membership then why not have another on Scottish Independence and so it goes.

    I don't think it was UKIP, which Cameron never took very seriously, but party management that drove him to promise a referendum. It was a position that the Tories could agree upon, even if they did not agree on the best result.

    The Scottish example makes one hesitate but I do think it is unlikely we would have another EU referendum in, say, 20 years whichever way it went. The only possibility would be if the government post Cameron negotiated our out arrangements and then asked again, well do you want this or to stay in?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The Labour Selectorate want to stay in the EU (77:13), so too do the Corbnyites (74:14) and they expect him to campaign to do so (57 in, 7 out, 20 not campaign either side)

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iebvdv9xkl/LabourSelectorate_Europe_W2.pdf

    True enough. But since when has Jezza ever compromised on anything or listened to anyone? Jezza is as Jezza does. The fact that his supporters want to stay in the EU will not matter a jot.

    Incidentally has Jezza lost a lot of weight recently? His clothes look rather baggy and I do not think he has been sleeping well, he looks tired.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: WATCH: Moment BBC Cameraman Floored Outside Corbyn's Home [VIDEO] http://t.co/eVv2JAMUE9

    The comments on Guido are normally not a patch on here but the comment that that video is as conclusive as one of a yeti is really funny.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Question of the day is when will the frothers stop wetting their pants about JC. Seems many on here lead sad lonely lives when they get so excited about so little, pretty amazing.

    Thanks Malcolm :( now I feel right down in the dumps.
    Rob , be uplifted by fact you are well down the frothers pecking order
    Rob, he likes you! OMG, he likes you!
  • Mr. L, disagree on that.

    If we vote to stay, the EU will change drastically over 20 years, and not for the better.
  • stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As far as singing Anthems is concerned, not everyone likes or wants to sing and not everyone knows the words. John Redwood, I believe, was famously embarrassed in his time as Welsh Secretary by trying his hand at singing. You can't make or force someone to sing the National Anthem if they don't want to and it doesn't make them a scintilla more or less patriotic if they don't.

    Most people wouldn't know the words for the next two verses, even those who would call themselves patriotic, I would suspect.

    ...

    Comparing Corbyn with Redwood is not doing him much service.
    I managed to sing the second verse of the National Anthem at the remembrance service of the RAF squadron I attended a fortnight ago quite easily. It was printed on the service sheet.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    alex. said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    Lol - you haven't written any yet :)
    Give it time. The piece I'm writing now is

    To understand the disaster that is the Corbyn leadership is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets Three Mile Island meets Tron 2 meets the Battle of Zama.
    Too clunky

    Howabout paralleling Lot/Gommorah with JC/Labour?
    I do like Biblical analogies.

    I was proud of the Book of Revelation references I got in yesterday.

    But Tron 2 allows me to reference Olivia Wilde, a future member of my harem
    13 from House?
    Yup
    TBH have never seen the appeal
    Do a google image search of "Olivia Wilde sexy" and you'll be a fan.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Corbyn has been chatting to Ed Miliband about how to do PMQs & plans to get advice from Dennis Skinner. Appeal to members got 40,000 replies
    — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) September 15, 2015
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Interesting little factoid from DT Live http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11867889/jeremy-corbyn-david-cameron-pmqs-live.html

    • Cameron claimed £128,375.59 in expenses in 2014-15, while Corbyn claimed £158,994.44
  • JEO said:

    Cameron needs to be really careful here. On the line is not just his job but his legacy and how he is seen by history. I can see several outcomes:

    1) Cameron achieves major renegotiation and adequately addresses the challenges we face from the EU, especially those the public are most worried about. He campaigns for Remain and wins. He's seen to once again defy expectations and goes down as one of our better Prime Ministers by moderate analysts and most of the public, although the Eurosceptics and Left never like him.

    2) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns to stay in and wins. In the following years discontent with the EU continues to grow, especially as the public get even more sick of immigration, especially the second hand asylum seekers. The party is split as half of it believes Cameron sold a dud and he is looked back on as mangling the issue as New Labour mangled devolution. There's a small group of left Tories that still like him, but everyone else dislikes him for various reasons.

    3) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns for in and loses. He immediately has to resign and we face a volatile election where God who knows wins. The UK has a very tumuotuous few years and Cameron is seen as a political failure across the board, even among One Nation Tories, as he failed to defend their interests. This is a disaster for his legacy.

    4) Cameron gets a weak negotiation, and publicly says the EU, despite his best efforts is unwilling to take the necessary reform steps for the 21st century. He leads the out campaign which wins solidly. He stays in place to oversee the change, negotiates new trade deals with the EU, USA and India. He starts on domestic reforms previously blocked by the EU, such as overhauling immigration properly. Years hence, divergent growth rates of the rump EU and the UK is the metric used to judge the split and this reflects well on the decision. Cameron is seen a heroic lion by the right and one of the all time great Conservative PMs. Groups on the left dislike him but blame most of the problems on the Corbyn catastrophe.

    You are missing a scenario. What if Cam campaigns for out but in wins?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited September 2015
    stodge said:



    to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.


    You are quite right that living in one of those camps must be miserable - the very first thing that needs to be sorted is to ensure that they are fully and well funded by the international community. The 'hard headed realists' must not lose compassion for the very real suffering these Syrian refugees are enduring.

    However, given there are 3 or 4 million displaced Syrians and no country has that many empty houses, wherever they are moved to, they will be living in camps for quite some time. Better to focus money and effort on improving their lives where they are rather than wasting it in transport costs.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)
    1) I liked his statement yesterday on all those that helped keep Britain free from the Nazis

    2) I like he's a very parsimonious MP and has some of the lowest expenses claims. Is positively Thatcherite in its outlook when it comes to taxpayers money

    3) He's opposed to ID cards and 90 days detention without charge. He's got impeccable civil libertarian credentials
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd give it maybe 3 months - anything less and it'd be premature IMO.

    Very informed defection speculation from Peston. If I were a Blairite, I'd give it a couple of weeks; it might be over by then...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I think Operation Destroy Labour will definitely want him to hang around for a while yet.

    He's just the main star attraction.

    alex. said:

    It's surprisingly early days, but the Tories might already need to be thinking in terms of launching a "Save Corbyn" campaign. Operation "install Corbyn" is in danger of falling apart far too quickly.

    JC stays and Labour takes a beating as well as JC, or he goes and Labour takes a beating for choosing him. If I were a leftie, I'd be desperate for JC to stay, it's by far the lesser evil for Labour. As I'm not a leftie then I shall enjoy the spectacle whichever way it goes.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Malc

    'Question of the day is when will the frothers stop wetting their pants about JC. Seems many on here lead sad lonely lives when they get so excited about so little, pretty amazing'

    Cheer yourself up Malc. Your leaderene has finally made it into Vogue. All those years wearing tartan wedges..........

    http://www.vogue.co.uk/news/2015/09/07/nicola-sturgeon-british-vogue-october-2015

    All we need now is for The Bay City Rollers to make a comeback and life will be great.
    Speak for yourself!
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)

    2) I like he's a very parsimonious MP and has some of the lowest expenses claims. Is positively Thatcherite in its outlook when it comes to taxpayers money

    You missed the 'Cameron claimed £128,375.59 in expenses in 2014-15, while Corbyn claimed £158,994.44' below.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    stodge said:

    Just on the migrant/refugee crisis, one could argue the only country really taking decisive action to halt the migrant flow is Russia by arming Assad but that's a tad cynical.

    This is going to roll westwards from Hungary/Serbia to Serbia/Croatia (in the EU but not Schengen) and then to Croatia/Slovenia (EU and Schengen).

    It's all very well applauding the Government line on only taking refugees from the camps but to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.

    Once again, we come back to trying to find a political and military endgame to the Syrian conflict - Russia seems content to back Assad though I suspect with qualifications for now and while stopping IS is and has to be a priority, for me it has to be part of a much wider solution to this which may involve the departure of Assad but has to contain guarantees for the Alawites and other minorities within a federal or cantonised Syria.

    The problem with Syria is that there is a bad group (the FSA), two very bad groups (al-Nusra, the Assad regime), and one horrific group (ISIS). If we back any of the non-ISIS groups more heavily, we end up being extremely tied to their badness when/if they take over, and it'll just be another case of Muslims looking at us as being the evil West backing a bad guy. The least worse of several bad options is probably just to take out ISIS but not align us with anyone else.
  • Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886
  • The Labour Selectorate want to stay in the EU (77:13), so too do the Corbnyites (74:14) and they expect him to campaign to do so (57 in, 7 out, 20 not campaign either side)

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iebvdv9xkl/LabourSelectorate_Europe_W2.pdf

    The fact that his supporters want to stay in the EU will not matter a jot.
    Since his support in the PLP is limited ("biggest mistake of my political life" Beckett) what happens when he cheeses off his only supporters?
  • watford30 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)

    2) I like he's a very parsimonious MP and has some of the lowest expenses claims. Is positively Thatcherite in its outlook when it comes to taxpayers money

    You missed the 'Cameron claimed £128,375.59 in expenses in 2014-15, while Corbyn claimed £158,994.44' below.
    That's last year. You've made fans of a single data point analysis very happy.

    I was talking over a longer time frame
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Roger said:

    Corbyn could be heading for the kind of popularity which only comes with cult status. 'Chance the gardener' might be a template. I heard George Mombiot explaining why not singing the Anthem was one of the most profound acts of leadership since Mao's long march.

    All we need now is the book followed by the film. The phone ins and vox pops have started and you can be sure the Dispatches team are assembling as we speak .

    Who'd have guessed that the loud mouthed Cassius Clay would become the most popular sports person on the planet? It was impossible to predict. He did everything to outrage conservatives but it touched a nerve.

    The Tories would be very foolish to count their chickens. Public opinion can be very fickle

    Are you really trying to make a link between Muhammed Ali and JC?
  • JEO said:

    Cameron needs to be really careful here. On the line is not just his job but his legacy and how he is seen by history. I can see several outcomes:

    1) Cameron achieves major renegotiation and adequately addresses the challenges we face from the EU, especially those the public are most worried about. He campaigns for Remain and wins. He's seen to once again defy expectations and goes down as one of our better Prime Ministers by moderate analysts and most of the public, although the Eurosceptics and Left never like him.

    2) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns to stay in and wins. In the following years discontent with the EU continues to grow, especially as the public get even more sick of immigration, especially the second hand asylum seekers. The party is split as half of it believes Cameron sold a dud and he is looked back on as mangling the issue as New Labour mangled devolution. There's a small group of left Tories that still like him, but everyone else dislikes him for various reasons.

    3) Cameron achieves a weak negotiation, campaigns for in and loses. He immediately has to resign and we face a volatile election where God who knows wins. The UK has a very tumuotuous few years and Cameron is seen as a political failure across the board, even among One Nation Tories, as he failed to defend their interests. This is a disaster for his legacy.

    4) Cameron gets a weak negotiation, and publicly says the EU, despite his best efforts is unwilling to take the necessary reform steps for the 21st century. He leads the out campaign which wins solidly. He stays in place to oversee the change, negotiates new trade deals with the EU, USA and India. He starts on domestic reforms previously blocked by the EU, such as overhauling immigration properly. Years hence, divergent growth rates of the rump EU and the UK is the metric used to judge the split and this reflects well on the decision. Cameron is seen a heroic lion by the right and one of the all time great Conservative PMs. Groups on the left dislike him but blame most of the problems on the Corbyn catastrophe.

    You are missing a scenario. What if Cam campaigns for out but in wins?
    He'd have to resign surely in that scenario.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)

    2) I like he's a very parsimonious MP and has some of the lowest expenses claims. Is positively Thatcherite in its outlook when it comes to taxpayers money


    How much of that is due to his very low office rental costs to the 'Ethical Property Company' or whatever it was called and how much due to actual parsimony? The problem with MP expenses is that they include staff and office costs as well as other running costs so it is difficult to know exactly how careful someone is being or if they just live/ work in an expensive area.

  • Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    I'm not rushing down to Ladbrokes.
  • watford30 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)

    2) I like he's a very parsimonious MP and has some of the lowest expenses claims. Is positively Thatcherite in its outlook when it comes to taxpayers money

    You missed the 'Cameron claimed £128,375.59 in expenses in 2014-15, while Corbyn claimed £158,994.44' below.
    That's last year. You've made fans of a single data point analysis very happy.

    I was talking over a longer time frame
    He lives in central London. Of course his expenses should be low!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited September 2015
    JonathanD said:

    stodge said:



    to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.


    You are quite right that living in one of those camps must be miserable - the very first thing that needs to be sorted is to ensure that they are fully and well funded by the international community. The 'hard headed realists' must not lose compassion for the very real suffering these Syrian refugees are enduring.

    However, given there are 3 or 4 million displaced Syrians and no country has that many empty houses, wherever they are moved to, they will be living in camps for quite some time. Better to focus money and effort on improving their lives where they are rather than wasting it in transport costs.
    Spain. 3.4 million.
    Germany. 1.8 million.
    France + Italy 2m plus each.
    Ireland 400k.
    UK 700k.
    Portugal 700k.

    Still better to keep them in secure camps in region, however.

    Unusually for the G, I believe those numbers roughly.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/europe-11m-empty-properties-enough-house-homeless-continent-twice?CMP=fb_gu

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/23/1393176517114/unnamed.png?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=14e0b9b449bc43280ed7d587db69d38f
  • I'd price a direct Lab --> Con defection in this Parliament at about 7/4. It's not just ideology; it's ambition for Ministerial office.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good Morning Comrade PBers Worldwide.

    The Dear Leader takes on the running dog lackey of the Labour Party establishment shortly.

    All Hail Dave - The Workers Friend and First Among Equals of the Supreme Conservative Presidium.
  • Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    If they do the decent thing like Carswell and Reckless that would be a positive step for democracy.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    If Corybn does get deposed in some manner then what the hell would the fall out from that be? He did get elected by 60% of the electorate.

    It's that 60% of their electorate that Labour has to lose though - if it ever wants meaningful power again.

    I can fully believe the defection talk. If you have decided to be a career politician, and seen your career with your chosen party destroyed, do you go and a) become a director of a charity or b) head to the party that looks like the one with the greatest chance of finding you a meaningful role in politics until retirement? Plenty could convince themselves that those they most care about in society are only going to be helped if they can have a voice, even if it is preventing the Tories implementing things like the "bedroom tax".
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Pardon me this is a silly thread header.
    Benn has issued a statement saying there are no circumstances where labour would leave the EU

    If he was leader it would be convincing, he isn't, so it isn't.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited September 2015
    Productivity gains galore!

    Unemployment steady (rate down), pay rises up (well above inflation), employment still rising (up 42k QoQ). Hours worked down, employment up, so probable probability gains as well, but we need to wait for the BoE report to confirm it.

    I think the easy gains have gone though, now we need businesses to invest and grow their employee base. It's not easy.

    Good news on youth unemployment as well, down to 15.6%, among the lowest in the EU, but we still need to reduce that to less than 10% sooner rather than later.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It's a complete cleft stick for Corbyn - who does he side with?

    His supporters?
    The PLP he now leads?
    Labour voters?
    The wider floating voter UK audience?

    Right now, his supporters appear to be mutually exclusive with large sections of the rest.

    The Labour Selectorate want to stay in the EU (77:13), so too do the Corbnyites (74:14) and they expect him to campaign to do so (57 in, 7 out, 20 not campaign either side)

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/iebvdv9xkl/LabourSelectorate_Europe_W2.pdf

    The fact that his supporters want to stay in the EU will not matter a jot.
    Since his support in the PLP is limited ("biggest mistake of my political life" Beckett) what happens when he cheeses off his only supporters?
  • MattW said:

    JonathanD said:

    stodge said:



    to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.


    You are quite right that living in one of those camps must be miserable - the very first thing that needs to be sorted is to ensure that they are fully and well funded by the international community. The 'hard headed realists' must not lose compassion for the very real suffering these Syrian refugees are enduring.

    However, given there are 3 or 4 million displaced Syrians and no country has that many empty houses, wherever they are moved to, they will be living in camps for quite some time. Better to focus money and effort on improving their lives where they are rather than wasting it in transport costs.
    Spain. 3.4 million.
    Germany. 1.8 million.
    France + Italy 2m plus each.
    Ireland 400k.
    UK 700k.
    Portugal 700k.

    Still better to keep them in secure camps in region, however.

    Unusually for the G, I believe those numbers roughly.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/europe-11m-empty-properties-enough-house-homeless-continent-twice?CMP=fb_gu

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/23/1393176517114/unnamed.png?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=14e0b9b449bc43280ed7d587db69d38f
    The issue with this is that in the UK at least, most empty homes are likely to be in areas with very high unemployment so if you put refugees in them they would struggle to find a job.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    MattW said:

    JonathanD said:

    stodge said:



    to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.


    You are quite right that living in one of those camps must be miserable - the very first thing that needs to be sorted is to ensure that they are fully and well funded by the international community. The 'hard headed realists' must not lose compassion for the very real suffering these Syrian refugees are enduring.

    However, given there are 3 or 4 million displaced Syrians and no country has that many empty houses, wherever they are moved to, they will be living in camps for quite some time. Better to focus money and effort on improving their lives where they are rather than wasting it in transport costs.
    Spain. 3.4 million.
    Germany. 1.8 million.
    France + Italy 2m plus each.
    Ireland 400k.
    UK 700k.
    Portugal 700k.

    Still better to keep them in secure camps in region, however.

    Unusually for the G, I believe those numbers roughly.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/europe-11m-empty-properties-enough-house-homeless-continent-twice?CMP=fb_gu

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/23/1393176517114/unnamed.png?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=14e0b9b449bc43280ed7d587db69d38f
    There is no way there are 700k empty properties in the UK or if they are, their definition of empty means a bombed out crack den with no running water or electricity and a severe mould problem.
  • I wonder if some crafty wag today will propose starting each Wednesday's PMQs with GSTQ..
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Well all good things come to an end:
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 3m3 minutes ago
    Update - Austrian rail operator OEBB says train traffic between #Salzburg and #Germany has been halted on the orders of German authorities

    Expect explosions from the local populations and mayhem from the migrants, (especially where the group is mostly men), in Serbia, Macedonia, Greece and possibly Croatia. With the mass demonstrations on Hungary's borders, now closed.
  • JonathanD said:

    MattW said:

    JonathanD said:

    stodge said:



    to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.


    You are quite right that living in one of those camps must be miserable - the very first thing that needs to be sorted is to ensure that they are fully and well funded by the international community. The 'hard headed realists' must not lose compassion for the very real suffering these Syrian refugees are enduring.

    However, given there are 3 or 4 million displaced Syrians and no country has that many empty houses, wherever they are moved to, they will be living in camps for quite some time. Better to focus money and effort on improving their lives where they are rather than wasting it in transport costs.
    Spain. 3.4 million.
    Germany. 1.8 million.
    France + Italy 2m plus each.
    Ireland 400k.
    UK 700k.
    Portugal 700k.

    Still better to keep them in secure camps in region, however.

    Unusually for the G, I believe those numbers roughly.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/europe-11m-empty-properties-enough-house-homeless-continent-twice?CMP=fb_gu

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/23/1393176517114/unnamed.png?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=14e0b9b449bc43280ed7d587db69d38f
    There is no way there are 700k empty properties in the UK or if they are, their definition of empty means a bombed out crack den with no running water or electricity and a severe mould problem.
    Problem for the left is theres no way to square the circle of 'We have a housing crisis' with 'plenty of room and unsed properties!'.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    JonathanD said:

    MattW said:

    JonathanD said:

    stodge said:



    to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.


    You are quite right that living in one of those camps must be miserable - the very first thing that needs to be sorted is to ensure that they are fully and well funded by the international community. The 'hard headed realists' must not lose compassion for the very real suffering these Syrian refugees are enduring.

    However, given there are 3 or 4 million displaced Syrians and no country has that many empty houses, wherever they are moved to, they will be living in camps for quite some time. Better to focus money and effort on improving their lives where they are rather than wasting it in transport costs.
    Spain. 3.4 million.
    Germany. 1.8 million.
    France + Italy 2m plus each.
    Ireland 400k.
    UK 700k.
    Portugal 700k.

    Still better to keep them in secure camps in region, however.

    Unusually for the G, I believe those numbers roughly.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/europe-11m-empty-properties-enough-house-homeless-continent-twice?CMP=fb_gu

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/23/1393176517114/unnamed.png?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=14e0b9b449bc43280ed7d587db69d38f
    There is no way there are 700k empty properties in the UK or if they are, their definition of empty means a bombed out crack den with no running water or electricity and a severe mould problem.
    you are missing the point a little.

    The UK is good on this - 700k will included props being marketed etc.

    The spares as opposed to empties are in the FIGS countries Perhaps 5 million excess spares over what is required for a functioning market.

    Those are pretty much where official figures are.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    "You've smashed my camera," says voice on video of Corbyn incident
    — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) September 16, 2015
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)
    [Snipped]
    3) He's opposed to ID cards and 90 days detention without charge. He's got impeccable civil libertarian credentials
    The first two are correct. I wouldn't go quite so far on the second sentence there. He's not at all good on free speech. You can't be an impeccable civil libertarian and want to curb free speech.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DanHannanMEP: 1. Britain has a responsibility to help poor and oppressed people everywhere.
    2. Imperialism was evil.
    #TweetLikeALeftie
  • John_M said:

    Good morning all. I think we're in danger of misunderstanding Corbyn. Look at the man. Do you really think he gives two shits about newspaper headlines?

    Good point. He no doubt cares what the Morning Star says, since that represents the centre of his world view. Maybe the Guardian a bit. The rest is just the Tory press.

    Even the BBC news this morning led on the national anthem issue - and, what is more, on Labour criticism of Corbyn.

    Of course none of this should be a surprise. What on earth else did anyone even vaguely knowledgeable about politics expect a Corbyn/McDonnell takeover of the Labour Party to look like?

    Incidentally, I do find it amusing that the dwindling band of Corbyn defenders argue that, even if he is barmy and out of touch with the nation, he is at least principled and consistent. Really? Then how come he affirmed the Privy Council oath to be a true and faithful Servant unto the Queen's Majesty, as one of Her Majesty's Privy Council. You will not know or understand of any manner of thing to be attempted, done, or spoken against Her Majesty's Person, Honour, Crown, or Dignity Royal, but you will lett and withstand the same to the uttermost of your Power.... And generally in all things you will do as a faithful and true Servant ought to do to Her Majesty.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    I'd price a direct Lab --> Con defection in this Parliament at about 7/4. It's not just ideology; it's ambition for Ministerial office.

    Yep. People ask why not the half way house of the Lib Dems? Well duh.

    I also think that Peston is right (sorry, I clearly need a lie down) and that Osborne is a large part of the attraction. I have had more than one dyed in the wool Labour voter express admiration for his last budget. The comments were if only he had done more about housing that would have been great. Still, for Labour voters...
  • On topic: I think this is a misreading. There is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the Parliamentary Labour Party campaigning for the Out side. It just ain't gonna happen.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    CORBAN - Historic Meaning - A Gift Unto God.

    CORBYN - Modern Meaning - A Gift Unto The PB Gods.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He no doubt cares what the Morning Star says, since that represents the centre of his world view. Maybe the Guardian a bit. The rest is just the Tory press.

    Like The Mirror...

    @jimwaterson: Mirror reported that not all Labour MPs entirely happy right now. Response: http://t.co/Pq5ccaqXVO
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pauly said:
    This is standard procedure for a burgeoning Fascist Party: soon the the crack Labour teams will be in uniform. Expect to see the Corbyn Jugend very soon.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    DavidL said:

    I'd price a direct Lab --> Con defection in this Parliament at about 7/4. It's not just ideology; it's ambition for Ministerial office.

    Yep. People ask why not the half way house of the Lib Dems? Well duh.

    I also think that Peston is right (sorry, I clearly need a lie down) and that Osborne is a large part of the attraction. I have had more than one dyed in the wool Labour voter express admiration for his last budget. The comments were if only he had done more about housing that would have been great. Still, for Labour voters...
    Housing is the big issue where the Tories are missing a trick. They should be doing much much more. If they don't it will come back and bite them, and deservedly so.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The Mirror's frontpage was criticising Corbyn for not singing the National Anthem accompanied by a giant photo.
    Scott_P said:

    He no doubt cares what the Morning Star says, since that represents the centre of his world view. Maybe the Guardian a bit. The rest is just the Tory press.

    Like The Mirror...

    @jimwaterson: Mirror reported that not all Labour MPs entirely happy right now. Response: http://t.co/Pq5ccaqXVO
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Well they caught one. How many others are there?

    Abraham ben Jacob ‏@coinabs 5h5 hours ago
    #ISIS #terrorist behind #massacre of 21 tourists at #Tunisian museum arrested in Italy, arriving on ‘#refugee’ boat
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    I see PMQs is being trailed as JC/DC

    I love plays on 'AC/DC'...

    What do you call a rock band that smashes up their gear then come back and tidy it all up?

    OC/DC

    Not to mention my old football team La Chiesa Del Corno...

    http://kanolez.tripod.com/id61.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited September 2015

    watford30 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Isn't the story of the day whether corbyn's lips were seen to move during the national anthem?

    1) I've tried my best, but I can't get outraged by a lifelong Republican not singing God Save The Queen

    2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian

    3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
    I agree. In the spirit of contrarianism, why don't we try and find 3 nice things to say about Corbyn. I will start.

    1. He's keen on allotments and gardening. This is a good thing. Not enough allotments. Not enough green space e.g. on roof terraces, people not making the most of their front gardens etc. More power to Guerilla Gardeners!

    2. He voted against ID cards.

    3. He raised mental health as an issue which needs more focus. Couldn't agree more. The Lib Dems did some good work on this in the last Parliament. I hope the Tories continue with it and if Labour support this I think this will be a really encouraging development, particularly mental health services for young people.

    There.

    (Normal service will be resumed later.)

    2) I like he's a very parsimonious MP and has some of the lowest expenses claims. Is positively Thatcherite in its outlook when it comes to taxpayers money

    You missed the 'Cameron claimed £128,375.59 in expenses in 2014-15, while Corbyn claimed £158,994.44' below.
    That's last year. You've made fans of a single data point analysis very happy.

    I was talking over a longer time frame
    He lives in central London. Of course his expenses should be low!
    Other way round. Just had a look at Cameron v Corbyn's expenses over the last parliament

    Dave claimed 605k Jezbollah claimed 677k.

    Jezza's office rental costs in central London are 15k a year or so. Dave's are around 2 grand a year for rural Oxfordshire.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel 28m28 minutes ago
    Unable to enter #Hungary, migrants are stuck on the Serbian side of the border. Photo: Reuters
    Embedded image permalink

    Love Europe, No2EU ‏@UKMarkTyrrell 22m22 minutes ago
    @RedHotSquirrel have they applied for a visa?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    Well all good things come to an end:
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 3m3 minutes ago
    Update - Austrian rail operator OEBB says train traffic between #Salzburg and #Germany has been halted on the orders of German authorities

    Expect explosions from the local populations and mayhem from the migrants, (especially where the group is mostly men), in Serbia, Macedonia, Greece and possibly Croatia. With the mass demonstrations on Hungary's borders, now closed.

    Had time to think of a response to the disgusting levels of sexual abuse in the Israeli military I posted for you yesterday yet? Or does it only concern you if Muslims are involved?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    MaxPB said:

    Productivity gains galore!

    Unemployment steady (rate down), pay rises up (well above inflation), employment still rising (up 42k QoQ). Hours worked down, employment up, so probable probability gains as well, but we need to wait for the BoE report to confirm it.

    I think the easy gains have gone though, now we need businesses to invest and grow their employee base. It's not easy.

    Good news on youth unemployment as well, down to 15.6%, among the lowest in the EU, but we still need to reduce that to less than 10% sooner rather than later.

    I do think we are seeing the end of the really quite peculiar UK jobs miracle. The move to the living wage will push employers to be more sparing with labour and improve productivity.

    The reduction in WTCs will make part time work of 16 hours or so marginally less attractive, albeit full time work more so. So there will over time be more full time and a reduction in part time working.

    There are signs that the economy is starting to slow. If that continues total employment may struggle to hold current levels. Immigration and an increasing population should then see rising unemployment but hopefully only on a modest scale.
  • The biggest surprise was both version of the Independent running with the same story.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO-aPLOWoAAXfmF.jpg

    The Mirror's frontpage was criticising Corbyn for not singing the National Anthem accompanied by a giant photo.

    Scott_P said:

    He no doubt cares what the Morning Star says, since that represents the centre of his world view. Maybe the Guardian a bit. The rest is just the Tory press.

    Like The Mirror...

    @jimwaterson: Mirror reported that not all Labour MPs entirely happy right now. Response: http://t.co/Pq5ccaqXVO
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited September 2015

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.




  • Cameron is finishing already, he's pre-announced his exit. Whether he wins or loses the EU vote makes no difference as to whether he'll be leading the party at the election or not.
    He's looking to sustain his legacy now and is a pretty shrewd operator. After winning a couple of elections (plus putting off the election that never was that he was expected to lose) and a couple of referendums already I wouldn't put it past him to be on the winning side for the fifth and final time. His first referendum started the polls two-to-one against him and ended two-to-one in his favour.
    I agree he will leave immediately after the referendum. It will define his career, if he wins, he rides off into the sunset having secured both the Union and the EU, if he loses he resigns in defeat, having divided the party.
    Never underestimate the ego of these people, he will be acutely aware he has painted himself into a corner and now events, to a great extent, are out of his hands.

    Thats a naive way of looking at it. As soon as a politician starts looking for and worrying about 'events' he is in trouble. Stuff happens, you have to deal with it. You cannot let it get in the way of what you want to do.
    Cameron has already been proved right over migrants. The EU is ripe for renegotiation.
    Frankly I can see Cameron resigning in time for a leadership election at the end of 2019 and simply staying on as PM whilst Osborne (the winner) leads the election campaign. Even if that is fanciful it would make sense for the winner (likely Osborne) to be PM for 6 months before the election, Cameron will then have virtually served a full 5 year term.
    But who knows what event will befall any of us before then.

    I've been pushing this idea ever since the famous Landale interview.
    Cameron says what he means; when he says a full term, he means a full term.
    It's not been done before, but the idea of DC staying as PM after the election of a new party leader in October 2019, does have merit.
    Javid or Osborne or ANOther then has six months to draw up a fresh manifesto and enthuse supporters, while Cameron continues serenely in background, reassuring centrist voters and emphasising continuity and confidence.
  • MikeK said:

    Well they caught one. How many others are there?

    Abraham ben Jacob ‏@coinabs 5h5 hours ago
    #ISIS #terrorist behind #massacre of 21 tourists at #Tunisian museum arrested in Italy, arriving on ‘#refugee’ boat

    Do you have a link for that story, I only ask because you've been falling for stuff like this all week.

    A picture that purports to be of refugees carrying Isis flags and attacking police has been shared widely on social media this week — but the picture is old, probably doesn't show an Isis flag, and has nothing to do with refugees.

    The image has been picked up by a range of right-wing outlets, including the Conservative Post, and has been shared tens of thousands of times since. That site said it was a "new leaked picture" that "confirmed" its claims about Isis smuggling in agents among refugees.

    The images confirm a theory that has taken hold among many right-wing sites — that Isis is using the Syrian refugee crisis to bring thousands of terrorists into Europe, among people who are fleeing the group.

    The picture appears to have come from protests in Bonn in May 2012. The protest began as one by a then ascendant far-right political party in the country, and the Muslims in the picture were part of a counter-protest.

    http://ind.pn/1KPY4EA
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Well all good things come to an end:
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 3m3 minutes ago
    Update - Austrian rail operator OEBB says train traffic between #Salzburg and #Germany has been halted on the orders of German authorities

    Expect explosions from the local populations and mayhem from the migrants, (especially where the group is mostly men), in Serbia, Macedonia, Greece and possibly Croatia. With the mass demonstrations on Hungary's borders, now closed.

    Had time to think of a response to the disgusting levels of sexual abuse in the Israeli military I posted for you yesterday yet? Or does it only concern you if Muslims are involved?
    It is obvious that you hate Israel, Saddened, and probably Jews as well. Do I despise Islam? You bet I do.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Well all good things come to an end:
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 3m3 minutes ago
    Update - Austrian rail operator OEBB says train traffic between #Salzburg and #Germany has been halted on the orders of German authorities

    Expect explosions from the local populations and mayhem from the migrants, (especially where the group is mostly men), in Serbia, Macedonia, Greece and possibly Croatia. With the mass demonstrations on Hungary's borders, now closed.

    Had time to think of a response to the disgusting levels of sexual abuse in the Israeli military I posted for you yesterday yet? Or does it only concern you if Muslims are involved?
    It is obvious that you hate Israel, Saddened, and probably Jews as well. Do I despise Islam? You bet I do.
    I have no issue with Israel I have an issue with racists. So therefore have an issue with you.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelLCrick: Video - up soon - of incident outside Corbyn home yesterday shows camera going to ground & voice of someone who seems to say "I warned you"

    Perhaps by 2020 all reporters and camera crews will be giving Corbyn and the Labour Party a wide berth? ;)

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I was really surprised by The Mirror. Then again - they know their readership and that'd go down like cold sick.

    The Indy is an interesting one - I don't feel I've much idea of their stance on anything anymore. It seems to be greeny-liberal, but John Rentoul is clearly a Tory for the foreseeable future.

    The biggest surprise was both version of the Independent running with the same story.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO-aPLOWoAAXfmF.jpg


    The Mirror's frontpage was criticising Corbyn for not singing the National Anthem accompanied by a giant photo.

    Scott_P said:

    He no doubt cares what the Morning Star says, since that represents the centre of his world view. Maybe the Guardian a bit. The rest is just the Tory press.

    Like The Mirror...

    @jimwaterson: Mirror reported that not all Labour MPs entirely happy right now. Response: http://t.co/Pq5ccaqXVO
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd price a direct Lab --> Con defection in this Parliament at about 7/4. It's not just ideology; it's ambition for Ministerial office.

    Yep. People ask why not the half way house of the Lib Dems? Well duh.

    I also think that Peston is right (sorry, I clearly need a lie down) and that Osborne is a large part of the attraction. I have had more than one dyed in the wool Labour voter express admiration for his last budget. The comments were if only he had done more about housing that would have been great. Still, for Labour voters...
    Housing is the big issue where the Tories are missing a trick. They should be doing much much more. If they don't it will come back and bite them, and deservedly so.

    The need is obvious, especially in London. The solutions are not.

    The government has done what it can to increase the availability of mortgages, especially for new entrants to the market. They have shortened, simplified and weighted the planning system in favour of development. They have, in the budget, made BTL less attractive making it easier for first time buyers to compete and purchase. They have kept interest rates dangerously low reducing the cost of buying. The demand really should be there but house builders are still hesitant.

    Short of a large scale public house building campaign it is not immediately obvious what else the government can do. And that runs up against the problem of there being no spare money. But it probably needs to be done.
  • I was really surprised by The Mirror. Then again - they know their readership and that'd go down like cold sick.

    The Indy is an interesting one - I don't feel I've much idea of their stance on anything anymore. It seems to be greeny-liberal, but John Rentoul is clearly a Tory for the foreseeable future.

    The biggest surprise was both version of the Independent running with the same story.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO-aPLOWoAAXfmF.jpg


    The Mirror's frontpage was criticising Corbyn for not singing the National Anthem accompanied by a giant photo.

    Scott_P said:

    He no doubt cares what the Morning Star says, since that represents the centre of his world view. Maybe the Guardian a bit. The rest is just the Tory press.

    Like The Mirror...

    @jimwaterson: Mirror reported that not all Labour MPs entirely happy right now. Response: http://t.co/Pq5ccaqXVO
    It's not really a surprise by the Indy. They urged people to vote for the coalition ahead of Labour.
  • JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.
    Personal vote, plus Corbyn effect, plus how close it was, plus Trident - if he was to cross the floor and trigger a by-election (stating it was fulfilling a pre-election pledge) then I think he'd hold the seat in a by-election as a Tory very easily.
  • JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.
    Especially if he stood as an Independent
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I said the same when this first came up - he's got a cast iron reason to cross the floor on behalf of his constituents jobs.

    JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.
    Personal vote, plus Corbyn effect, plus how close it was, plus Trident - if he was to cross the floor and trigger a by-election (stating it was fulfilling a pre-election pledge) then I think he'd hold the seat in a by-election as a Tory very easily.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    MikeK said:

    Pauly said:
    This is standard procedure for a burgeoning Fascist Party: soon the the crack Labour teams will be in uniform. Expect to see the Corbyn Jugend very soon.
    Ridiculous nonsense.
  • DavidL said:

    MikeK said:

    Pauly said:
    This is standard procedure for a burgeoning Fascist Party: soon the the crack Labour teams will be in uniform. Expect to see the Corbyn Jugend very soon.
    Ridiculous nonsense.
    No he's right, it is standard procedure for a burgeoning fascist party.

    Remember the Kipper that hit Michael Crick over the head?
  • JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.
    It is also worth pointing out that Barrow is likely to be "flipped" to the Tories anyway by the boundary changes
  • JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.
    Especially if he stood as an Independent
    His best chance of winning it would be to stand as a Tory, surely?
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    DavidL said:

    MikeK said:

    Pauly said:
    This is standard procedure for a burgeoning Fascist Party: soon the the crack Labour teams will be in uniform. Expect to see the Corbyn Jugend very soon.
    Ridiculous nonsense.
    No he's right, it is standard procedure for a burgeoning fascist party.

    Remember the Kipper that hit Michael Crick over the head?
    I for one welcome being able to burden the left with the same fallacious attacks by association that UKIP has received for as long as I can remember.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunNation: EXCL Corbyn said "shut the door" after his driver threw BBC cameraman to the ground http://t.co/XH5CPJYHGJ http://t.co/fveM3lpsoQ
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    So when a UKIP politician assaults a journalist, the BBC plasters it all over its news coverage, but when a Labour politician does it, the BBC managerial staff covers it up.

    It is really time we got rid of this propaganda outfit's state monopoly.
  • Has anyone else spotted the Charlie Hebdo take on the migration crisis?

    It's ... um .. a bit ... close to the bone.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    MikeK said:

    Well they caught one. How many others are there?

    Abraham ben Jacob ‏@coinabs 5h5 hours ago
    #ISIS #terrorist behind #massacre of 21 tourists at #Tunisian museum arrested in Italy, arriving on ‘#refugee’ boat

    Do you have a link for that story, I only ask because you've been falling for stuff like this all week.

    A picture that purports to be of refugees carrying Isis flags and attacking police has been shared widely on social media this week — but the picture is old, probably doesn't show an Isis flag, and has nothing to do with refugees.

    The image has been picked up by a range of right-wing outlets, including the Conservative Post, and has been shared tens of thousands of times since. That site said it was a "new leaked picture" that "confirmed" its claims about Isis smuggling in agents among refugees.

    The images confirm a theory that has taken hold among many right-wing sites — that Isis is using the Syrian refugee crisis to bring thousands of terrorists into Europe, among people who are fleeing the group.

    The picture appears to have come from protests in Bonn in May 2012. The protest began as one by a then ascendant far-right political party in the country, and the Muslims in the picture were part of a counter-protest.

    http://ind.pn/1KPY4EA
    Speech marks please... I nearly spat my tea out until I saw you were quoting someone else
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Pah. He's just another 'Tory'.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jezza intv on Sky shortly - assuming pre-recorded.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Any Blairite MPs crossing the floor should do the decent thing and resign to stand again as Conservatives.
  • MattW said:

    JonathanD said:

    stodge said:



    to live in a camp for months, if not years, with no prospects, would seem like purgatory. The camps can and must be a temporary solution not a permanent home for the Syrian Diaspora.


    You are quite right that living in one of those camps must be miserable - the very first thing that needs to be sorted is to ensure that they are fully and well funded by the international community. The 'hard headed realists' must not lose compassion for the very real suffering these Syrian refugees are enduring.

    However, given there are 3 or 4 million displaced Syrians and no country has that many empty houses, wherever they are moved to, they will be living in camps for quite some time. Better to focus money and effort on improving their lives where they are rather than wasting it in transport costs.
    Spain. 3.4 million.
    Germany. 1.8 million.
    France + Italy 2m plus each.
    Ireland 400k.
    UK 700k.
    Portugal 700k.
    Still better to keep them in secure camps in region, however.
    Unusually for the G, I believe those numbers roughly.
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/europe-11m-empty-properties-enough-house-homeless-continent-twice?CMP=fb_gu
    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/23/1393176517114/unnamed.png?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=14e0b9b449bc43280ed7d587db69d38f
    The issue with this is that in the UK at least, most empty homes are likely to be in areas with very high unemployment so if you put refugees in them they would struggle to find a job.
    The issue of empty homes is a red herring. Given Spanish levels of unemployment - just what benefit would a million migrants bring to them?
    These mass movements of people are far from the normal movements between countries and the movements up to now within the EU. They are illegal and unregulated and it must be quite clear to even the thickest lefty moron living in their cloud cuckoo land that any accession to this movement will result in greater tragedies all round.
  • Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Very believeable, Peston is the one best connected with Labour. Its where his politics and his family are. Dad's a Labour peer.
  • JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.
    Especially if he stood as an Independent
    His best chance of winning it would be to stand as a Tory, surely?
    He won't. He knows Liz Kendall's campaign manager standing as a Tory would do immeasurable harm to the moderate wing of the Labour Party. Corbynites would say see they are all Tories
  • watford30 said:

    Pah. He's just another 'Tory'.
    We are all Tories now. The LDP of Japan should be worried for their records.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_(Japan)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    MikeK said:

    Pauly said:
    This is standard procedure for a burgeoning Fascist Party: soon the the crack Labour teams will be in uniform. Expect to see the Corbyn Jugend very soon.
    Ridiculous nonsense.
    No he's right, it is standard procedure for a burgeoning fascist party.

    Remember the Kipper that hit Michael Crick over the head?
    I may have picked this up wrong but Corbyn does not seem to approve of anyone being in uniform. And he is not a fascist. Not sure if that counts towards your and Cyclefree's list of good points but you both stole all the easier ones.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    MikeK said:

    Well they caught one. How many others are there?

    Abraham ben Jacob ‏@coinabs 5h5 hours ago
    #ISIS #terrorist behind #massacre of 21 tourists at #Tunisian museum arrested in Italy, arriving on ‘#refugee’ boat

    This is why the current migration issue is so toxic. There is no reliable way of distinguishing between Assad thugs, other thugs, Islamist trained jihadis, actual jihadis, people who will become jihadis and ordinary people who want to live ordinary lives and who would be a credit to any society. Particularly not where documents have been destroyed, people will say whatever it takes to get to where they want to be and there are no reliable authorities in the places they've left where matters can be checked.

    So if you let them all in - the German option - you put security at risk; if you let no-one in, you risk being shouted at by Roger et al; if you let some in from camps over time (the Cameron option) you can, with luck, do the necessary intelligence and choose the most deserving but this option does not deal with all the masses collecting elsewhere nor with those moving to the UK from other EU countries.

    And this is all before you deal with the issues involved with integrating large numbers of people from very different cultures. Migrants are not just people who can do the work needed. They are people with cultures and values and opinions and world views and they bring those with them, as well as their skills. Countries in Europe are far too sanguine about the very real challenges of integrating people in a sustainable way.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited September 2015
    JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.
    Are there Corbynistic stirrings in the Peoples Republic of Hersham, are the residents revolting? .... :smile:

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm torn. Generally speaking, I'd totally agree with you - an MP is elected on a manifesto/personal stance. If your Party leader is replaced by a pinko terrorist hugger - well I think its fair to just jump ship.
    JEO said:

    Any Blairite MPs crossing the floor should do the decent thing and resign to stand again as Conservatives.

  • JohnO said:

    Robert Peston suggesting Blairite MPs might cross the floor to the Tories: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

    Keep an eye on John Woodcock, MP for Barrow and Furness (majority 795) who promised in his election manifesto to resign if Labour opposed Trident renewal. Now that would be a spectacularly fun by-election.

    John Woodcock
    @JWoodcockMP
    .@mykkym1 I should be deselected for asking Jeremy Corbyn to agree to wear a red poppy on Remembrance Sunday?
  • I'm also on this bet

    @MSmithsonPB: Just had my first next LAB leader bet - £10 on Alan Johnson at 25/1 on Betfair. Could he be the party's Michael Howard?
  • Has anyone else spotted the Charlie Hebdo take on the migration crisis?

    It's ... um .. a bit ... close to the bone.

    Good piece on that: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/charlie-hebdos-cartoon-of-aylan-kurdi-is-exactly-what-free-speech-looks-like-10502303.html
  • From the Peston piece:

    Osborne mixes in the same modish London metrosexual and metropolitan elite circles as them [ultra Blairite Labour MPs] He takes their calls, responds to their emails, and is fully abreast of their current agony.

    I laughed out loud at this image of Osborne as an Agony Aunt!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited September 2015

    The biggest surprise was both version of the Independent running with the same story.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO-aPLOWoAAXfmF.jpg


    The Mirror's frontpage was criticising Corbyn for not singing the National Anthem accompanied by a giant photo.

    Scott_P said:

    He no doubt cares what the Morning Star says, since that represents the centre of his world view. Maybe the Guardian a bit. The rest is just the Tory press.

    Like The Mirror...

    @jimwaterson: Mirror reported that not all Labour MPs entirely happy right now. Response: http://t.co/Pq5ccaqXVO
    oh for the days when we had an informed PB poster who could look at a photo, any photo, of a politician, one with a lone tear sadly making its way down his face, for example, and immediately and accurately assess the scale of the media earthquake that would inevitably follow.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: "I will take a full part" in commemorations, says Corbyn, asked if he will sing the national anthem in future. Sky News.
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