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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest slot: Corbyn represents something more than just Corb

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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    @morrisdancer
    with your talk of sewing up the hems on your trousers, and wearing jeans, you have ruined my picture of you.
    I imagined you dressed in a toga with a laurel wreath on your head and a set of bells strapped to your leg.
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    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Emily Thornberry becomes number 2 at DWP in Labour shadow team

    *sniggers*

    That speaks volumes as for the respect the new leadership has for what is right
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I confidently make a prediction. By March next year, Schengen will be fully "open" again.

    Happy to take the other side of that if you fancy a wager, Robert - providing the text is changed to in March, rather than by....

    £10 to charity of choice?

    One thing to bear in mind is that winter is coming and that will surely slow the flow of migrants (if they have any sense). If European leaders had any sense they would use the winter months to strengthen all the exterior borders of the Schengen zone. More likely they will think crisis over and then it will all start up again next year
    I suspect that's right Winter will surely ( we must all hope for safety's sake at the least ) slow the flow.

    Don't know if anyone knows if there's a reason but why are the migrants going in very risky boats to Greek Islands anyway? Why not walk across the Turkish Greek border and go via land? Is there a block there too in the Turkish side maybe I've not heard about?
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    I don't know where you are living, but with the exception of very rural areas, there is no reason, whatsoever, why you need to spend more than £25 a week on food.

    This allows you to have a supermarket deliver a fortnightly £40 shop to your door and spend £10 a week on fresh milk and bread. This is exactly what I did 4 years ago when I wasn't working for around 11 months. I never had to touch my savings and never wanted for anything.

    Of course if you live in an urban area, you don't even need to rely on delivery if you spend £20 on a bike and a backpack.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Is it just me or could Corbyn double for Obi-Wan Kenobi ?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782

    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    round here, they use taxis. Far cheaper than owning a car...
    They are. Cheapest are buses, at about £500pa, but they are restricted in routes. Scooters are best at about £1500pa all in, but - again - it's a weight thing. Taxis are about the same, but they bring their own problems (getting there is one thing, but pick-up is depressing, and the wait is a killer in the winter). If you *can* walk it, it works out really well, but you really do have to finesse the weight.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,548
    edited September 2015

    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    round here, they use taxis. Far cheaper than owning a car...
    I can carry a lot more than that in bike panniers.

    If I go for a trailer or a cargo bike I can do more.

    If an electric bike it becomes a cinch.

    All at a cost of almost nothing :-).

    And 6-8 miles is comfortable.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    On PMQs, I think Corbyn did ok today, but Cameron avoided any slip ups too. The quieter tone turned the SNP contribution into a Saturday night out in the less salubrious parts of Glasgow, with about the same allure.

    Corbyn can't keep only using questions from the public. It will a) make him look like a TV host interviewing someone more important than him and b) invite Cameron to ask him why he can't think of any questions of his own to ask
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782
    HaroldO said:

    So, we rang the Gas Board...

    'And they said "it has nothing to do with us"' etc
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2QZprRgxDc
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    round here, they use taxis. Far cheaper than owning a car...
    They are. Cheapest are buses, at about £500pa, but they are restricted in routes. Scooters are best at about £1500pa all in, but - again - it's a weight thing. Taxis are about the same, but they bring their own problems (getting there is one thing, but pick-up is depressing, and the wait is a killer in the winter). If you *can* walk it, it works out really well, but you really do have to finesse the weight.
    Cheapest is to have the supermarket deliver to your door which costs £3 for a £40 shop and for those with families, a fortnightly £100 shop is FREE.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2015
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782
    Dair said:

    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    I don't know where you are living, but with the exception of very rural areas, there is no reason, whatsoever, why you need to spend more than £25 a week on food.

    This allows you to have a supermarket deliver a fortnightly £40 shop to your door and spend £10 a week on fresh milk and bread. This is exactly what I did 4 years ago when I wasn't working for around 11 months. I never had to touch my savings and never wanted for anything.

    Of course if you live in an urban area, you don't even need to rely on delivery if you spend £20 on a bike and a backpack.
    I got it down to £10 to £15per week (smug mode on). Problem is after a while, you lose teeth. Don't have to do it any more, thank God. The pushbike thing? Never appealed (the weight thing again). Supermarket delivery wasn't so widespread at the time, so wasn't an option.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Scott_P said:
    He was a lot better than Ed M ever managed. A bit waffley and the opening remarks were unnecessary and inappropriate, but apart from that Corbyn got through it fine.
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    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    round here, they use taxis. Far cheaper than owning a car...
    I can carry a lot more than that in bike panniers.

    If I go for a trailer or a cargo bike I can do more.

    If an electric bike it becomes a cinch.

    All at a cost of almost nothing :-).

    And 6-8 miles is comfortable.
    Or you can be like my elderly neighbours who organise themselves to order me to buy and deliver their milk, grapefruit, oats and bleach when I do our weekly shopping... :-)
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    edited September 2015
    Scott_P said:

    John McDonnell, when he is not musing about assassinating Margaret Thatcher or overthrowing capitalism, is a fan of the men in balaclavas. Bobby Sands, the Provo gun-runner who died on hunger strike in 1981, is a particular favourite.

    This gave Cameron another opportunity to play the statesman, claiming the moral high ground and slapping down Corbyn’s fringe politics without breathing the man’s name: "My view is simple: the terrorism we faced was wrong. It was unjustifiable. The death and the killing was wrong. It was never justified, and people who seek to justify it should be ashamed of themselves."

    The Tories know they must pull their punches on Corbyn. Make it about Labour. How far Labour has strayed from the mainstream. How Labour is out of touch with the British people. Avoid personal attacks; you don’t want to look like you’re battering a pensioner and draw public sympathy for him. Above all, the object is to keep Corbyn in the job until the next election. He is the most extreme leader in the history of the Labour Party. Play this right and the Conservatives could bury their opponents in a bigger landslide than Mrs T's 1983 avalanche.
    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1328874-stephen-daisley-on-jeremy-corbyns-first-pmqs-as-labour-party-leader/

    Maggie's vote, and vote share, dropped in1983. If Labour doesn't split before 2020, on a straight comparison Cameron (or whoever) is toast in 2020.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    malcolmg said:

    MTimT said:

    Mr. Notme, there's a drive to pathologise every quirk. And people are more emotive/willing to admit problems (or suffer hypochondria) than in the past, due to a greater willingness to talk and the stiff upper lip falling out of fashion.

    I do think that, generally, it's good to talk but don't discount the stiff upper lip entirely.

    A study found that of women (taking part) suffering PMS, diaries revealed that over 90% actually weren't. Of course, being a man and raising this can provoke some ire, but there we are. [I would've used a different example, but it's a while since I was at university and that one stuck in my mind].

    Self-reporting is notoriously unreliable for self-diagnosis [it's when your mum ticks all but 2 symptoms of psychopathology on your behalf that you need to worry ;) ].

    I favour talking about issues (a nephew committed suicide in June, and his father had no idea he was having problems, so this is a raw issue at the moment for the family). However, talking should be for a purpose, particularly to reconcile oneself to the harsh reality and prepare oneself to move on in good shape. However, all too often, therapy devolves into an exercise in wallowing in self-pity, which I suspect some therapists encourage as it ensures a good income stream.
    Commiserations MT, must be devastating for a family.
    Thank you. As you imagine, shattering for my brother, his ex and the brother and sister.

    They say bad things come in threes. My best dog ever died last month, and I was delayed in answering this as I was burying one of our donkeys who died this morning. She has a beautiful view in the back 30, just off the shoulder of the hill looking over the hay field into the woods.

    Hopefully we're done with deaths for a while.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited September 2015
    viewcode said:

    Dair said:

    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    I don't know where you are living, but with the exception of very rural areas, there is no reason, whatsoever, why you need to spend more than £25 a week on food.

    This allows you to have a supermarket deliver a fortnightly £40 shop to your door and spend £10 a week on fresh milk and bread. This is exactly what I did 4 years ago when I wasn't working for around 11 months. I never had to touch my savings and never wanted for anything.

    Of course if you live in an urban area, you don't even need to rely on delivery if you spend £20 on a bike and a backpack.
    I got it down to £10 to £15per week (smug mode on). Problem is after a while, you lose teeth. Don't have to do it any more, thank God. The pushbike thing? Never appealed (the weight thing again). Supermarket delivery wasn't so widespread at the time, so wasn't an option.
    I don't quite see why you lose teeth, that's a bizarre conclusion. My point was £25 a week is doable while remaining reasonably health, of course it could go lower but wouldn't be a good idea.

    As for a bikes, they are probably the single biggest money saver anyone in an urban or semi-urban location can invest in. I started cycling to work in 2004 and only wished I had started sooner. It saved me about £1500 per annum before I was home based.
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    MrsB said:

    Scott_P said:
    He was a lot better than Ed M ever managed. A bit waffley and the opening remarks were unnecessary and inappropriate, but apart from that Corbyn got through it fine.
    He got through it - but it wasn't authentic. He was hiding behind the words of others and not holding anyone to account.

    It is not a technique that will actually deliver proper opposition. And that is what he is there to provide.
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    Scott_P said:

    John McDonnell, when he is not musing about assassinating Margaret Thatcher or overthrowing capitalism, is a fan of the men in balaclavas. Bobby Sands, the Provo gun-runner who died on hunger strike in 1981, is a particular favourite.

    This gave Cameron another opportunity to play the statesman, claiming the moral high ground and slapping down Corbyn’s fringe politics without breathing the man’s name: "My view is simple: the terrorism we faced was wrong. It was unjustifiable. The death and the killing was wrong. It was never justified, and people who seek to justify it should be ashamed of themselves."

    The Tories know they must pull their punches on Corbyn. Make it about Labour. How far Labour has strayed from the mainstream. How Labour is out of touch with the British people. Avoid personal attacks; you don’t want to look like you’re battering a pensioner and draw public sympathy for him. Above all, the object is to keep Corbyn in the job until the next election. He is the most extreme leader in the history of the Labour Party. Play this right and the Conservatives could bury their opponents in a bigger landslide than Mrs T's 1983 avalanche.
    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1328874-stephen-daisley-on-jeremy-corbyns-first-pmqs-as-labour-party-leader/
    Maggie's vote, and vote share, dropped in1983. If Labour doesn't split before 2020, on a straight comparison Cameron (or whoever) is toast in 2020.


    If Corbyn gets in, we'll all be toast.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @NickP

    Thanks for that. While I think there are not many people whose lives or families have been untouched by mental illness completely, people do need reminding that major depression is a different phenomenon to feeling a bit down. I too wiuld prefer a physical condition, but we do not get a choice.

    I welcome the moves by all parties on the subject (and purely from the utillitarian viewpoint it is a major drain on the economy through absence and impact on carers). I am not convinced that waiting time targets are the right way to go. It encourages a cursory tickbox assessment. On the whole mental health issues have developed slowly over the years, are complex in aetiology and slow to resolve. They do not lend themselves to a "waiting list initiative" approach like we see in surgical specialities or cardiology for example. Speeding up appointments will overwhelm the limited treatment capacity even more.

    In practice GPs would take this on, but of all my colleagues GP's seem the most stressed and burnt out themselves!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,336
    MTimT said:



    Thank you. As you imagine, shattering for my brother, his ex and the brother and sister.

    They say bad things come in threes. My best dog ever died last month, and I was delayed in answering this as I was burying one of our donkeys who died this morning. She has a beautiful view in the back 30, just off the shoulder of the hill looking over the hay field into the woods.

    Hopefully we're done with deaths for a while.

    Good luck for better times, Tim.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782
    Dair said:

    ...I don't quite see why you lose teeth, that's a bizarre conclusion...

    An old complaint (in fact it's the same one): the cheaper you go, the greater the probability of something going wrong, and below a certain level the disadvantages pile up faster than the advantages accrue. NHS dentists are not *free*, and (in my experience at least) have a high turnover of dentists in a given practice. Teeth can only be filled so much, and after a certain point require things like pegs, implants...which cost. Back teeth (with their more complex root structure and more difficult access) go first.

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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Is Lord A a closet Kipper? I am sure I saw a photo of him at a UKIP event recently and he was quite vocal about their lack of appointments to the House of Lords.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I confidently make a prediction. By March next year, Schengen will be fully "open" again.

    That sounds very hopeful given the situation atm. May I enquire why you are so confident, please?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,008
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I confidently make a prediction. By March next year, Schengen will be fully "open" again.

    From what I read here, everyone is leaving Schengen and the EU forever and Merkel should have told the migrants to drop dead to save them.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,008
    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I confidently make a prediction. By March next year, Schengen will be fully "open" again.

    That sounds very hopeful given the situation atm. May I enquire why you are so confident, please?
    I am guessing that the migrants will stop migrating during the winter.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Two good articles from Nate Silver:

    1. on Hillary - in a self-perpetuating poll slump spiral but still the favorite to win

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-is-in-a-self-reinforcing-funk/

    2. on Trump - only 5% chance of the nomination:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/09/15/nate_silver_trump_has_about_5_chance_of_winning.html
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:



    Thank you. As you imagine, shattering for my brother, his ex and the brother and sister.

    They say bad things come in threes. My best dog ever died last month, and I was delayed in answering this as I was burying one of our donkeys who died this morning. She has a beautiful view in the back 30, just off the shoulder of the hill looking over the hay field into the woods.

    Hopefully we're done with deaths for a while.

    Good luck for better times, Tim.
    Thanks, Nick. You coming over to Washington anytime soon?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited September 2015
    MrsB said:

    Scott_P said:
    He was a lot better than Ed M ever managed. A bit waffley and the opening remarks were unnecessary and inappropriate, but apart from that Corbyn got through it fine.
    On a shallower level, although personally I never had a problem thinking Ed could sound authoritative (as I have a boss who is a vocal doppleganger for Ed), Corbyn does have a quite reassuring timbre to his words I felt.
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    MTimT said:



    Thank you. As you imagine, shattering for my brother, his ex and the brother and sister.

    They say bad things come in threes. My best dog ever died last month, and I was delayed in answering this as I was burying one of our donkeys who died this morning. She has a beautiful view in the back 30, just off the shoulder of the hill looking over the hay field into the woods.

    Hopefully we're done with deaths for a while.

    Good luck for better times, Tim.
    My condolences.

    Can I also echo the sentiments downthread on mental health. It's a very important issue that still possesses stigma and the services to support those afflicted by it are wholly inadequate.
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    Thanks Mark. Just signed up.

    Let battle commence.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tombradby: Blimey, it sounds like @JWhittingdale just signalled the return of the BBC's 9 O'Clock News.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited September 2015

    MTimT said:



    Thank you. As you imagine, shattering for my brother, his ex and the brother and sister.

    They say bad things come in threes. My best dog ever died last month, and I was delayed in answering this as I was burying one of our donkeys who died this morning. She has a beautiful view in the back 30, just off the shoulder of the hill looking over the hay field into the woods.

    Hopefully we're done with deaths for a while.

    Good luck for better times, Tim.
    My condolences.

    Can I also echo the sentiments downthread on mental health. It's a very important issue that still possesses stigma and the services to support those afflicted by it are wholly inadequate.
    Thanks.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited September 2015
    new thread
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Thanks Mark. Just signed up.

    Let battle commence.
    Signed up too. Cheers for that Mark!
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    Dair said:

    viewcode said:

    All those of you discussing the minimum cost of food per week may wish to consider that the limiting factor is not just cost but weight...

    To explain. I can carry about 25kgs unaided for about a mile. If it goes over that then you have to get a car, and the cost of that (car+insurance+petrol+maintenance) is about £2500pa. This is a genuine problem, and careful planning is necessary for the carless. Eggs are good and light, tins of beans are spectacularly cheap tho' heavy, out-of-town supermarkets are cheap but impossible to get to, eight-til-lates are local but expensive...if you're in a contemplative mood, it's an interesting problem in optimising within constraints.

    I don't know where you are living, but with the exception of very rural areas, there is no reason, whatsoever, why you need to spend more than £25 a week on food.

    This allows you to have a supermarket deliver a fortnightly £40 shop to your door and spend £10 a week on fresh milk and bread. This is exactly what I did 4 years ago when I wasn't working for around 11 months. I never had to touch my savings and never wanted for anything.

    Of course if you live in an urban area, you don't even need to rely on delivery if you spend £20 on a bike and a backpack.
    if you like eating rubbish
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