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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Cameron’s majority last?

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Cameron’s majority last?

For all the difficulties that have beset Jeremy Corbyn in his first week in charge, when it comes to parliamentary votes, it’s the PM rather than the Leader of the Opposition who should worry.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Surely the most politically interesting result would be a recommendation from all the major parties to vote In and the voting electorate go for Out?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,604
    On the other hand... There has to be the real possibility that the Corbynistas start their purge of the non-believers - and the Tories benefit from some defections directly from Labour. A rare event these past 40 years for sure. But when Labour looked like the only game in town, they secured a few defections from the Tories, so maybe that works in reverse if the Tories look like they have little effective opposition for a Parliament or two?
  • Don't forget that by-elections can go in multiple directions. There are 10 Labour MPs with majorities of less than 1,000 and an awful lot more with majorities under 3,000. A handful of those are majorities over the Lib Dems (as in Cambridge) or other parties, but most are vs the Conservatives. After a hellish summer for Labour, and with no sign of a Corbyn bounce, there's every chance that a by-election in those seats in the near future would result in the Government increasing its majority.
  • regarded by Sceptics as having been won by deception, media bias or some other form of jiggery pokery, may well extract a very high political price in the Commons.

    That’s not to say it will happen.


    Oh yes it will.

    If 'out' does not win, we can write the script now.......I fear they'll make the Nats look sober and reflective by comparison.....

    Given the mess Europe is in it will require something approaching a miracle for Cameron to get much of substance out of his fellow leaders, they are baling furiously while I suspect they'll see Cameron's request as the equivalent of debating the toss between a twist and a slice in a G&T......
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,296
    The next UK General Election will be in May 2020 and I or my heirs and successors hope to have my ARSE fully geared up for that and the inevitable Jacobite landslide in a decade coming to you shortly afterward.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,296
    Welcome Mr Rogue.

    You will be in appropriate company on PB .... :smile:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,839
    I think the attraction of UKIP is likely to be somewhat diminished after their abysmal election result in terms of seats. Few MPs will be so reckless (sorry, couldn't resist) with their careers. Labour have a similar advantage in relation to the Lib Dems. If they had even 30 MPs defections from Corbyn would have been nailed on but who wants to join an irrelevance?

    If Zac wins London that is one by election but the Tories should fancy their chances there unless they are deep in mid term Blues by then. Otherwise I agree with David that Cameron has a much, much better chance of making his majority last than Major did.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549


    Emily Maitlis and Dennis Skinner. Watch till the end.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,658
    FPT @ RodCosby

    RodCrosby said:

    Chin's an idiot.

    The Constitution includes the 14th Amendment, which was ratified in 1868.

    In 1875 the Supreme Court said:
    "The Constitution does not, in words, say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that..."

    So the 14th Amendment doesn't tell us who is an NBC. As if the above wasn't conclusive enough, there are other reasons why it doesn't, but I'm typing this in bed, so they can wait...

    Rod, I know this is your hobby horse, but you are way off base. Here is the Harvard Law Review on the subject - or are they another leftie bunch of idiots?

    http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/

    As I have posted before, British Common Law and the enactments of the First Congress, many of whom were drafters of the Constitution, are the key. And the consensus except amongst Birthers and those who knowingly and selectively cite legal text in support of the Birther viewpoint, is that those who by virtue of birth are considered US citizens without need to go through a naturalization process, are considered natural born citizens. This includes all children of US citizens born overseas, in line with British law at that time, but expanded to include the children of mothers who were US citizens.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    The next UK General Election will be in May 2020 and I or my heirs and successors hope to have my ARSE fully geared up for that and the inevitable Jacobite landslide in a decade coming to you shortly afterward.

    I agree. Cameron has a majority and an opposition that can only oppose itself. Why go early?

    The EU ref is one of many possible events but neither Inners or Outers would gain by forcing a further General election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990
    DavidL said:

    I think the attraction of UKIP is likely to be somewhat diminished after their abysmal election result in terms of seats. Few MPs will be so reckless (sorry, couldn't resist) with their careers. Labour have a similar advantage in relation to the Lib Dems. If they had even 30 MPs defections from Corbyn would have been nailed on but who wants to join an irrelevance?

    If Zac wins London that is one by election but the Tories should fancy their chances there unless they are deep in mid term Blues by then. Otherwise I agree with David that Cameron has a much, much better chance of making his majority last than Major did.

    Heathrow expansion will lose it for the blues in Richmond.
  • Time's Winged Chariot:

    MPs age
    0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
    60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/
  • The formal majority at the election was 12, not 10. That became 16 as four elected Members from NI chose not to take their seats.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Time's Winged Chariot:

    MPs age
    0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
    60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/

    Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me...

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990
    It's very quiet this morning. Does no one else have small children?
  • Time's Winged Chariot:

    MPs age
    0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
    60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/

    Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me...

    There's a song in there somewhere.....tho the party with the youngest MPs is the SNP (44 ave) followed by Con (50) LibDem (51 - n.b. small base ;-) ) then Labour (53)

    https://smithinstitutethinktank.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/who-governs-britain.pdf
  • rcs1000 said:

    It's very quiet this morning. Does no one else have small children?

    Or everyone's worn out from the excitement of last Saturday?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990

    Time's Winged Chariot:

    MPs age
    0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
    60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/

    Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me...

    There's a song in there somewhere.....tho the party with the youngest MPs is the SNP (44 ave) followed by Con (50) LibDem (51 - n.b. small base ;-) ) then Labour (53)

    https://smithinstitutethinktank.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/who-governs-britain.pdf
    UKIP has a 44 average too :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 30,361
    I think DavidL has it right on defections - someone could be pushed or tempted very hard in that direction, but the continuing difficulty for UKIP and utter destruction of the LDs means they are far from tempting homes to head to, and it's hard too how either can prove more appealing. That said I don't entirely rule out con to UKIP switchers if Cameron recommends for stay, but not many.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078
    Five years is a long time. Cameron will almost certainly make it. But it might not be much fun in the second half.

    We have no idea what will happen. At this stage in 1992 they were saying that Labour could never win again. Same again for the Tories in 2005.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 42,446
    edited September 2015
    Good morning, everyone.

    Not watched it yet, but the Inside F1 edition from yesterday has an interesting headline - 'Mercedes floundering'.

    Edited extra bit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34293200
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited September 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Time's Winged Chariot:

    MPs age
    0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
    60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/

    Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me...

    There's a song in there somewhere.....tho the party with the youngest MPs is the SNP (44 ave) followed by Con (50) LibDem (51 - n.b. small base ;-) ) then Labour (53)

    https://smithinstitutethinktank.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/who-governs-britain.pdf
    UKIP has a 44 average too :-)
    But UKIP MPs are the most likely to defect...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    edited September 2015
    Jonathan said:

    Five years is a long time. Cameron will almost certainly make it. But it might not be much fun in the second half.

    We have no idea what will happen. At this stage in 1992 they were saying that Labour could never win again. Same again for the Tories in 2005.

    Yes but Labour elected a sensible centrist candidate Blair in 1994 (after disastrous defeats in 87 and especially 92) and yet after coronating Brown in 2007( who was barking and malevolent towards his own team,) Labour elected a weird leader Ed Miliband who was unelectable.

    Now they have elected someone even worse..

    The influence of the unions has played no small part in Labour';s downfall.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078

    Time's Winged Chariot:

    MPs age
    0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
    60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/

    Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me...

    Is that Dave singing?


  • rcs1000 said:

    It's very quiet this morning. Does no one else have small children?


    Hangover. – keep the noise down please…
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078

    Jonathan said:

    Five years is a long time. Cameron will almost certainly make it. But it might not be much fun in the second half.

    We have no idea what will happen. At this stage in 1992 they were saying that Labour could never win again. Same again for the Tories in 2005.

    Yes but Labour elected a sensible centrist candidate Blair in 1994 (after disastrous defeats in 87 and especially 92) and yet after coronating Brown who was barking and malevolent towards his own team, Labour elected a weird leader who was unelectable.

    Now they have elected someone even worse..

    The influence of the unions has played no small part in Labour';s downfall.
    Who knows who Labour might elect in 2017. The point stands , we have no more idea about the future than they did.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Welcome to PB, Sir.
    Rogueywon said:

    Don't forget that by-elections can go in multiple directions. There are 10 Labour MPs with majorities of less than 1,000 and an awful lot more with majorities under 3,000. A handful of those are majorities over the Lib Dems (as in Cambridge) or other parties, but most are vs the Conservatives. After a hellish summer for Labour, and with no sign of a Corbyn bounce, there's every chance that a by-election in those seats in the near future would result in the Government increasing its majority.

  • rcs1000 said:

    It's very quiet this morning. Does no one else have small children?

    Yes, but the small child takes an inordinate amount of interest in the laptop if I start typing. :)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Who knows who Labour might elect in 2017. The point stands , we have no more idea about the future than they did.''

    Whoever they do elect will spend three years and an election apologising for the time when labour lost its mind.

    A bit like HAL the computer in 2001 a space odyssey

    ''I'm feeling much better now Dave.......''
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    That's a much bigger segment than I expected.

    Time's Winged Chariot:

    MPs age
    0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
    60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/

  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,065
    edited September 2015
    Fox

    "Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me..."

    That's always how I see the Tories.....



    EDIT. Sorry Jonathan but great minds......
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,402
    Political expediency may spark an early election, but I get the feeling that Cameron and co. really would like to stick to the full five year date. The temptations of going early must have been much stronger when in coalition than they will be now.

    I wonder what the SNP would do too. They can't do much better than their current standing after all.

    The fact that there's a referendum would make any Tory to UKIP defection a bit daft.

    All in all I think Cameron (or whoever else if he steps aside at some point) is well positioned to stay the course until 2020.

    I do think there are lots of potential and dramatic game changers ahead though. The European migrant crisis primarily, but also risks associated with the world economy and its precarious debt fuelled position.

    My hunch as to a transition to a new leader would be that Cameron serves all the way to the election, but the GE is fought under the mandate of a leader elect. That'd seem the cleanest way to me, but it's just a wild guess.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :lol:
    taffys said:

    ''Who knows who Labour might elect in 2017. The point stands , we have no more idea about the future than they did.''

    Whoever they do elect will spend three years and an election apologising for the time when labour lost its mind.

    A bit like HAL the computer in 2001 a space odyssey

    ''I'm feeling much better now Dave.......''

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990
    edited September 2015
    kle4 said:

    I think DavidL has it right on defections - someone could be pushed or tempted very hard in that direction, but the continuing difficulty for UKIP and utter destruction of the LDs means they are far from tempting homes to head to, and it's hard too how either can prove more appealing. That said I don't entirely rule out con to UKIP switchers if Cameron recommends for stay, but not many.

    I think a couple of UKIP defections are possible.

    However, the fact that only Carswell held his seat (and that with a drastically reduced majority), will deter all but those towards the end of their careers.

    I also suspect that Cameron will allow those who wish to campaign for Out to so, which reduces the need for defection.

    EDIT: If it is won 51:49 by "In", with promises that are seen to have been broken, then all bets are off, of course.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Whilst we're discussing MPs falling off their perch or defecting in desperation - what about the voters running for the hills? What should LDs, Kippers and Tories do to hoover them up?
    But now is not the time to bash Labour. Now is the time to make a full, comprehensive and open offer to wavering Labour voters. If Marks & Spencer were to suffer a crisis, its rivals would try to steal its customers rather than releasing ads saying that M&S was always rubbish. If a newspaper folds, others lose no time in trying their hardest to pick up any stray readers. So where are the Tory efforts to appeal to the many Labour voters? Many on the left will be inclined to resign now, for the reasons that Nick Cohen outlines.
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9637472/the-right-response-to-the-corbynistas/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,065
    Jonathan.

    I hadn't seen that before. It's brilliant!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Five years is a long time. Cameron will almost certainly make it. But it might not be much fun in the second half.

    We have no idea what will happen. At this stage in 1992 they were saying that Labour could never win again. Same again for the Tories in 2005.

    Yes but Labour elected a sensible centrist candidate Blair in 1994 (after disastrous defeats in 87 and especially 92) and yet after coronating Brown who was barking and malevolent towards his own team, Labour elected a weird leader who was unelectable.

    Now they have elected someone even worse..

    The influence of the unions has played no small part in Labour';s downfall.
    Who knows who Labour might elect in 2017. The point stands , we have no more idea about the future than they did.
    Labour coronated Brown and couldn't get rid of him. Noone in the party had the balls to do it. they then elected another loser in Ed Miliband who lasted 5 yrs and had a humiliating defeat.

    You think Labour has the balls to get rid of Corbyn, or that he would voluntarily resign?
  • Another classic from Matt at the Telegraph
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990

    Whilst we're discussing MPs falling off their perch or defecting in desperation - what about the voters running for the hills? What should LDs, Kippers and Tories do to hoover them up?

    But now is not the time to bash Labour. Now is the time to make a full, comprehensive and open offer to wavering Labour voters. If Marks & Spencer were to suffer a crisis, its rivals would try to steal its customers rather than releasing ads saying that M&S was always rubbish. If a newspaper folds, others lose no time in trying their hardest to pick up any stray readers. So where are the Tory efforts to appeal to the many Labour voters? Many on the left will be inclined to resign now, for the reasons that Nick Cohen outlines.
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9637472/the-right-response-to-the-corbynistas/

    My guess would be that the patriotic - particularly in the North of England - will move towards UKIP. The metropolitan Europhiles will go the LibDems and the Greens. And those who wish for competent government will head to the Conservatives.
  • Local election results indicate LD green shoots have been damaged by a frost.So much for any agony Aunt Tim Farron bounce,nor support for SDP traitor Vince Cable.Ukip are starting to fall off the radar after the lies and deception over resigning and then-un-resigning-and then un-resigning again.As ever,non-voters win hands down,except in Scotland is better.STV could be just what English and Welsh local government needs.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492

    Local election results indicate LD green shoots have been damaged by a frost.So much for any agony Aunt Tim Farron bounce,nor support for SDP traitor Vince Cable.Ukip are starting to fall off the radar after the lies and deception over resigning and then-un-resigning-and then un-resigning again.As ever,non-voters win hands down,except in Scotland is better.STV could be just what English and Welsh local government needs.

    Just as well you didn't mention closet racists fruitcakes and loons in there.. ISAM would be on your case.!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,308
    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!

    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Another classic from Matt at the Telegraph
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

    Sadly BBC Parliament seems not to have much coverage of the LD conference, but we can at least hope for some decent coverage on Sunday Politics of this epic event:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/get-down-with-ashdown#.saJzr6jzD

    Paddy A plans to unseat Ally C from the top LDDJ slot with some bangin' choons!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,492
    edited September 2015
    tlg86 said:

    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!

    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited September 2015

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Five years is a long time. Cameron will almost certainly make it. But it might not be much fun in the second half.

    We have no idea what will happen. At this stage in 1992 they were saying that Labour could never win again. Same again for the Tories in 2005.

    Yes but Labour elected a sensible centrist candidate Blair in 1994 (after disastrous defeats in 87 and especially 92) and yet after coronating Brown who was barking and malevolent towards his own team, Labour elected a weird leader who was unelectable.

    Now they have elected someone even worse..

    The influence of the unions has played no small part in Labour';s downfall.
    Who knows who Labour might elect in 2017. The point stands , we have no more idea about the future than they did.
    Labour coronated Brown and couldn't get rid of him. Noone in the party had the balls to do it. they then elected another loser in Ed Miliband who lasted 5 yrs and had a humiliating defeat.

    You think Labour has the balls to get rid of Corbyn, or that he would voluntarily resign?
    Good morning all. Even the slowest of learners will, eventually, learn. If we accept an assertion that the electorate will not go for a 'left wing' party, the real challenge is how does the right of the party reassert itself?

    As currently constituted Corbyn would be replaced by another Corbynite (or, given the grisly progression displayed post-Blair, someone even worse).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,437
    Roger said:

    Fox

    "Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me..."

    That's always how I see the Tories.....



    EDIT. Sorry Jonathan but great minds......

    Is that guy Syrian ?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Interesting piece on Blairites vs Corbynistas from Matthew Parris http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4561625.ece

    He argues that Corbynistas aren't revolutionaries, but counter-revolutionaries - they're authentic Labour and it's the Blairites are the aberration within the Party.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990
    Greek elections tomorrow. Looking at the polls, it looks like SYRIZA's current coalition partners, the Independent Greeks, are unlikely to make the 3% cut-off. Popular Unity, the SYRIZA break-off headed by former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, looks likely to just cross the threshold; however, whether it gets 3.5% or 5.0%, it has dramatically underperformed expectations. Golden Dawn looks set to third again, still scoring around 7%, and ahead of a variety of parties on about 5% (Potami, the Union of Centrists, the Communists).

    SYRIZA is currently polling about 33%, ahead of ND on 31%. My guess would be a coalition combining SYRIZA plus one or more of the centrists political parties.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tlg86 said:

    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!

    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary go get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
    I did a 1 in 2 back in the day too.

    While the excessive hours are gone (72 hours max in any particular week and 48 hour average under EWTD) this change is being driven by a desire to cut the paybill and will fragment training further.

    Many of these posts are difficult to fill, this isn't going to help.

    @tg86 planning to visit fortress King Power next week?
  • I don't think any Tory MPs will be defecting again to UKIP anytime soon - they saw what happened to Reckless, how Carswell's majority was slashed and how Farage has made it a bit of a farce.

    Instead I think there could form a "UKIP" group *within* the Conservative Party, which asserts its dominance and independence far more in the event of an unsuccessful renegotiation and the leadership campaigning for a Remain vote.

    The leadership really needs to get all its big and contentious legislation through by the end of next year, because from 2017 onwards the whipping may become much harder.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,402

    Another classic from Matt at the Telegraph
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

    Sadly BBC Parliament seems not to have much coverage of the LD conference, but we can at least hope for some decent coverage on Sunday Politics of this epic event:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/get-down-with-ashdown#.saJzr6jzD

    Paddy A plans to unseat Ally C from the top LDDJ slot with some bangin' choons!
    You'd have thought we'd have astonishing coverage if this story is still (if ever) true.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3147347/BBC-plans-send-200-staff-scaled-coverage-Lib-Dem-conference-s-25-times-number-MPs.html
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,308

    tlg86 said:

    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!

    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
    What annoys me is that one of my friends is very much on the left and hates the Tories. That doesn't mean he's wrong, but I suspect he wouldn't be moaning if Labour were making these changes. He is, of course, in favour of mass immigration and very much in favour of the NHS - yet when it comes to it - he very much defends his own interests. Bottom line is, if the government has got this wrong, they'll lose doctors to other professions and there will be a crisis in the NHS.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073



    Given the mess Europe is in it will require something approaching a miracle for Cameron to get much of substance out of his fellow leaders, they are baling furiously while I suspect they'll see Cameron's request as the equivalent of debating the toss between a twist and a slice in a G&T......

    Do not forget that the UK is a huge source of money for the EU. If they decide that we are going to go and take the money with us then we will have their full attention. Money does that, especially in large amounts. They might be exasperated by us, but the billions we pay buys us forgiveness
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Roger said:

    Fox

    "Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me..."

    That's always how I see the Tories.....



    EDIT. Sorry Jonathan but great minds......

    Is that guy Syrian ?
    Hungarian, I suspect.

    But joking aside, the refugee/migrant crisis is going to boost the hard right everywhere, and may do more to reform the EU than anything that Dave does. If I were advising him I would aim for a 2017 or 18 referendum to see how things go.

  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    Roger said:

    Fox

    "Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me..."

    That's always how I see the Tories.....



    EDIT. Sorry Jonathan but great minds......

    Is that guy Syrian ?
    About as Syrian as 80% of the EU migrants in the last three months
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    rcs1000 said:

    It's very quiet this morning. Does no one else have small children?

    Not any more. Now one chick has flown to her university nest and the other has a job. I actually get to spend Saturday morning in bed with a cuppa

    Luxury!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    It's very quiet this morning. Does no one else have small children?

    Not any more. Now one chick has flown to her university nest and the other has a job. I actually get to spend Saturday morning in bed with a cuppa

    Luxury!
    Fox jr went back this week too. I am going to have to leave wet towels on the floor and the toilet seat up myself now. Sigh!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    Roger said:

    Fox

    "Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me..."

    That's always how I see the Tories.....



    EDIT. Sorry Jonathan but great minds......

    Is that guy Syrian ?
    Hungarian, I suspect.

    But joking aside, the refugee/migrant crisis is going to boost the hard right everywhere, and may do more to reform the EU than anything that Dave does. If I were advising him I would aim for a 2017 or 18 referendum to see how things go.

    It shouldn't just exercise the hard right; it's hard to run a country when you cannot control your borders. Just to pick one example, it's very hard to train the 'correct' number of doctors when you can't forecast demand. Nearly all the 'infrastructure' that pro-immigration people hand wave away takes years, if not decades, to create.

    I did have a question for you - how long _does_ it take to train a doctor these days? Not necessarily to consultant, but enough so they're safe to let loose in a ward unaccompanied ;) ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,308

    I did a 1 in 2 back in the day too.

    While the excessive hours are gone (72 hours max in any particular week and 48 hour average under EWTD) this change is being driven by a desire to cut the paybill and will fragment training further.

    Many of these posts are difficult to fill, this isn't going to help.

    @tg86 planning to visit fortress King Power next week?

    Silly question, but do doctors get paid per hour they work - so do you get paid for a 60 hour week if that's what you end up working? During the Census I got paid for doing ridiculous hours which was great - but now I'm in a job where I'm expected to complete all of my work in my 36 hour week. Inevitably I end up working more because I care about doing a good job, but I then get moaned at for having worked too many hours - I find that quite stressful.

    Yes, I will be going to Leicester next week. I went to Zagreb on Wednesday (via Vienna) and hopefully that's the last time Wenger thinks that it's a good idea to leave Coquelin on the bench. I travelled by train between Vienna and Zagreb and I didn't see any Syrians, but a dozen young men boarded the train at Graz and they turned out to be from Iraq.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Roger said:

    Fox

    "Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me..."

    That's always how I see the Tories.....



    EDIT. Sorry Jonathan but great minds......

    Is that guy Syrian ?
    Hungarian, I suspect.

    But joking aside, the refugee/migrant crisis is going to boost the hard right everywhere, and may do more to reform the EU than anything that Dave does. If I were advising him I would aim for a 2017 or 18 referendum to see how things go.

    He has committed to holding it by the end of 2017. I suspect he will have to wait until close to that to negotiate difficult reforms around this issue. We've agreed to take in 20,000 migrants from this crisis. I don't want to get 20 times that because a load of them get EU passports and come right here.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073

    rcs1000 said:

    It's very quiet this morning. Does no one else have small children?

    Not any more. Now one chick has flown to her university nest and the other has a job. I actually get to spend Saturday morning in bed with a cuppa

    Luxury!
    Fox jr went back this week too. I am going to have to leave wet towels on the floor and the toilet seat up myself now. Sigh!
    I suspect that mine likes to get back to uni so she can mess up her bathroom without being nagged to death for it.

    Everyone is out at the moment. Total peace ....... :) :) :)
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!

    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
    if the government has got this wrong, they'll lose doctors to other professions and there will be a crisis in the NHS.
    They may very well lose Doctors to other professions, but there won't be a crisis as they will import foreign Doctors. It's possible to undercut skilled professionals as well as unskilled. When they do, is when the squealing will really start. The guardian and luvvies, will go mental when importation of Labour starts to impact them, rather than somebody else.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    CarlottaVance,

    I have heard EU sources make the argument, "Cameron is trying to discuss with his neighbour while his house is on fire". Well if the house is on fire for the best part of a decade due to new ones constantly breaking out, perhaps some sort of discussion of fire codes is in order.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,308
    saddened said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!

    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
    if the government has got this wrong, they'll lose doctors to other professions and there will be a crisis in the NHS.
    They may very well lose Doctors to other professions, but there won't be a crisis as they will import foreign Doctors. It's possible to undercut skilled professionals as well as unskilled. When they do, is when the squealing will really start. The guardian and luvvies, will go mental when importation of Labour starts to impact them, rather than somebody else.
    I get the feeling that's already happening. But my friends would rather stick needles in their eyes than admit that their negotiating position is weakened by the reserve army of foreign doctors.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    Whilst we're discussing MPs falling off their perch or defecting in desperation - what about the voters running for the hills? What should LDs, Kippers and Tories do to hoover them up?

    But now is not the time to bash Labour. Now is the time to make a full, comprehensive and open offer to wavering Labour voters. If Marks & Spencer were to suffer a crisis, its rivals would try to steal its customers rather than releasing ads saying that M&S was always rubbish. If a newspaper folds, others lose no time in trying their hardest to pick up any stray readers. So where are the Tory efforts to appeal to the many Labour voters? Many on the left will be inclined to resign now, for the reasons that Nick Cohen outlines.
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9637472/the-right-response-to-the-corbynistas/
    My guess would be that the patriotic - particularly in the North of England - will move towards UKIP. The metropolitan Europhiles will go the LibDems and the Greens. And those who wish for competent government will head to the Conservatives.

    The Midlands also looks good for UKIP to scoop up Labour voters.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    I did a 1 in 2 back in the day too.

    While the excessive hours are gone (72 hours max in any particular week and 48 hour average under EWTD) this change is being driven by a desire to cut the paybill and will fragment training further.

    Many of these posts are difficult to fill, this isn't going to help.

    @tg86 planning to visit fortress King Power next week?

    Silly question, but do doctors get paid per hour they work - so do you get paid for a 60 hour week if that's what you end up working? During the Census I got paid for doing ridiculous hours which was great - but now I'm in a job where I'm expected to complete all of my work in my 36 hour week. Inevitably I end up working more because I care about doing a good job, but I then get moaned at for having worked too many hours - I find that quite stressful.

    Yes, I will be going to Leicester next week. I went to Zagreb on Wednesday (via Vienna) and hopefully that's the last time Wenger thinks that it's a good idea to leave Coquelin on the bench. I travelled by train between Vienna and Zagreb and I didn't see any Syrians, but a dozen young men boarded the train at Graz and they turned out to be from Iraq.
    Junior Doctors currently get paid a basic salary for a 40 hour week, plus a banding. This usually falls into an additional 40% of salary. The variety of shift patterns is quite complex:

    http://bma.org.uk/jdpaybanding/

    The new proposals do not change the overall hours but do reduce the hours considered "antisocial" and hence the applicable pay band.

    See you next week. It should be an interesting test next week at the KP. Mahrez is an obvious star but watch out for Kante. He is our best summer signing, a real midfield ratter. Will Arsene rest players with the CL match on 29th? Or will he want a full strength team at the KP.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited September 2015
    saddened said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:



    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
    if the government has got this wrong, they'll lose doctors to other professions and there will be a crisis in the NHS.
    They may very well lose Doctors to other professions, but there won't be a crisis as they will import foreign Doctors. It's possible to undercut skilled professionals as well as unskilled. When they do, is when the squealing will really start. The guardian and luvvies, will go mental when importation of Labour starts to impact them, rather than somebody else.
    That's already happened (at least in Wales). My beloved Jen was treated by (variously), a Bahamian, a Burmese and a South African. Only her consultant oncologist was British.

    My endocrinologist is Ghanian, my psychiatrist is Iraqi (both are consultants).

    Recently (I think it was Beverley_C) was pointing out that the NHS is heavily, heavily reliant on immigrants. I failed to point out at the time that this is one of the inevitable consequences of mass immigration itself (duh, bear with me :)). Any 'product' that has long lead times (e.g. doctors, professors) and lengthy ramp times (whither the consultants to train the neophytes?) will fail once you have unpredictable demand.

    The way you handle that is to import your professionals. This strikes me as immoral, as we're depriving other countries of their natural middle classes. However, it works, after a fashion.

    It's particularly exacerbated in this country due to our five-year spending rounds. It's always possible to kick training issues into the long grass as any solution will take longer than your planning horizon.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    edited September 2015

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k

    My sympathy for doctors went out the window years ago when Gordon gave them a huge pay rise in exchange for dropping house calls and doing less work.

    Junior doctors have always had a tough time regardless of the colour of the government of the day but the financial rewards of the job seem to be worth it. My brother in law retired as a GP recently. He is not hurting on his pension. His salary was good enough to allow him to have saved up some very nice little nest-eggs too.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,308

    tlg86 said:

    I did a 1 in 2 back in the day too.

    While the excessive hours are gone (72 hours max in any particular week and 48 hour average under EWTD) this change is being driven by a desire to cut the paybill and will fragment training further.

    Many of these posts are difficult to fill, this isn't going to help.

    @tg86 planning to visit fortress King Power next week?

    Silly question, but do doctors get paid per hour they work - so do you get paid for a 60 hour week if that's what you end up working? During the Census I got paid for doing ridiculous hours which was great - but now I'm in a job where I'm expected to complete all of my work in my 36 hour week. Inevitably I end up working more because I care about doing a good job, but I then get moaned at for having worked too many hours - I find that quite stressful.

    Yes, I will be going to Leicester next week. I went to Zagreb on Wednesday (via Vienna) and hopefully that's the last time Wenger thinks that it's a good idea to leave Coquelin on the bench. I travelled by train between Vienna and Zagreb and I didn't see any Syrians, but a dozen young men boarded the train at Graz and they turned out to be from Iraq.
    Junior Doctors currently get paid a basic salary for a 40 hour week, plus a banding. This usually falls into an additional 40% of salary. The variety of shift patterns is quite complex:

    http://bma.org.uk/jdpaybanding/

    The new proposals do not change the overall hours but do reduce the hours considered "antisocial" and hence the applicable pay band.

    See you next week. It should be an interesting test next week at the KP. Mahrez is an obvious star but watch out for Kante. He is our best summer signing, a real midfield ratter. Will Arsene rest players with the CL match on 29th? Or will he want a full strength team at the KP.
    Thanks for that - I remember at ONS getting more for working a Sunday than a Saturday - when in reality they're no different to me - especially during the close season for football!

    If Wenger knows what's good for him he won't be resting players again! I guess Giroud will probably play at Spurs in the League Cup and maybe Leicester. Our problem, in my opinion, is Wenger won't drop either Cazorla or Ozil. He moved Cazorla out of his favoured position behind the striker to make room for Ozil, which means Ramsey has been shifted on to the right. We need Aaron in the middle as he can run and is a genuine box to box midfielder.

    Anyway, got to go as I'm off to Stamford Bridge to watch us lose again.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Rcs1000,

    I'm waiting at a GP surgery walkin clinic. Because I can never get through during their limited periods they take appointments.

    Why are GPs allowed to limit how many appointments they take? It makes it impossible for patients to work out which ones are over subscribed. And for the government to monitor the true scale of excess demand.

    We should force all GPs to take appointments at all times, to publish the length of the waiting list and to scrap catchment areas. That means everyone can see where is easiest to get an appointment and help balance out demand over the network.

    Just some ideas.
  • Excellent piece Mr Herdson.

    Cameron has had an unbelievably lucky time as PM, able to deflect blame to the libs, after winning a surprise majority against dreadful opposition he has been presented with the gift that is Corbyn. The EU will pose far greater problems and I think (and sincerely hope) he won't cope well. The mood of the general public is completely different to that of parliament where I'd guess 90% of MPs would vote IN. The 10% will cause real problems for Cameron, more importantly the electorate look at the news and without staging demonstrations are quietly very worried.

    Cameron's best hope is to hold the referendum ASAP, OUT becomes more likely all the time. He'll know if that occurs his career and legacy are in tatters and people make mistakes under pressure.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    saddened said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!

    But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?

    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
    if the government has got this wrong, they'll lose doctors to other professions and there will be a crisis in the NHS.
    They may very well lose Doctors to other professions, but there won't be a crisis as they will import foreign Doctors. It's possible to undercut skilled professionals as well as unskilled. When they do, is when the squealing will really start. The guardian and luvvies, will go mental when importation of Labour starts to impact them, rather than somebody else.
    You are a bit out of date. Non -EU doctors cannot get visas anymore due to the clampdown on non EU migration. We can employ EU doctors (we particularly favour Greeks, but have a couple of Romanians too) but these can rarely meet the entry criteria for junior training posts, and tend to work as expensive locums for a year or too before returning. We have unfilled and unfillable gaps in rotas already so I think striking Juniors are in a strong position.

    The issue is not just one of Terms and Conditions but also a lack of transparancy and refusal to negotiate by Jeremy Hunt and the DoH. Consultants are in much the same boat, but would probably work to rule rather than strike, and may do similtaneously.
  • Striking doctors will get as much sympathy as striking tube drivers
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Foxinsoxuk,

    It seems crazy that we are limiting highly skilled doctors coming here when we have so much unskilled immigration from within and outside the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,665
    edited September 2015
    It seems utterly incomprehensible to me that with a net migration figure of ~ 300k we are not getting in all the skilled immigrants we need.

    Just who the f*ck is getting all the visas ?
  • JEO said:

    Foxinsoxuk,

    It seems crazy that we are limiting highly skilled doctors coming here when we have so much unskilled immigration from within and outside the EU.

    You'll be voting OUT then Mr JEO? As you say, crazy.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Morning All

    Sgt Blackman is my subject this morning:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3239156/Battle-justice-Jailed-commando-s-legal-campaign-gets-50k-boost-billionaire-philanthropist-Tory-peer-Lord-Ashcroft.html

    NavyLookout ‏@NavyLookout Sep 12
    Oliver Lee, Former CO of 45 Royal Marines resigned over betrayal of Sgt Blackman http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/angus-the-mearns/former-arbroath-co-quits-royal-marines-accusing-military-chiefs-of-alexander-blackman-betrayal-1.899550 …?

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews Sep 14
    Sgt Al Blackman 'hung out to dry' by politicians says wife http://tgr.ph/1iqwiC7

    Something has smelled about this case for months; now it stinks to high heaven.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    edited September 2015

    Recently (I think it was Beverley_C) was pointing out that the NHS is heavily, heavily reliant on immigrants.
    Not me ... Sorry

    Medical stuff is not really my cup of tea
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143

    saddened said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Friends of mine (aged 28) are moaning about this on Facebook. All of the time. Do you think they are right? Or is this just what you have to go through as a young Dr? I'm tempted to wind them up by suggesting that foreign doctors are undercutting their wages and immigrants are increasing their workload - but I don't think they'd appreciate it!



    Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
    They don't know they were born, my late wife was doing 1 in 2's and earning 9k in the early 80's. I don't know what they do now , but I know its a lot less.


    If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.

    Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
    if the government has got this wrong, they'll lose doctors to other professions and there will be a crisis in the NHS.
    They may very well lose Doctors to other professions, but there won't be a crisis as they will import foreign Doctors. It's possible to undercut skilled professionals as well as unskilled. When they do, is when the squealing will really start. The guardian and luvvies, will go mental when importation of Labour starts to impact them, rather than somebody else.
    You are a bit out of date. Non -EU doctors cannot get visas anymore due to the clampdown on non EU migration. We can employ EU doctors (we particularly favour Greeks, but have a couple of Romanians too) but these can rarely meet the entry criteria for junior training posts, and tend to work as expensive locums for a year or too before returning. We have unfilled and unfillable gaps in rotas already so I think striking Juniors are in a strong position.

    The issue is not just one of Terms and Conditions but also a lack of transparancy and refusal to negotiate by Jeremy Hunt and the DoH. Consultants are in much the same boat, but would probably work to rule rather than strike, and may do similtaneously.
    Non EU Doctors currently can't get visas. How difficult would that be to change? Not very, is the answer. Like it or not, the public don't like unskilled immigrants, but don't mind skilled immigrants.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,839
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the attraction of UKIP is likely to be somewhat diminished after their abysmal election result in terms of seats. Few MPs will be so reckless (sorry, couldn't resist) with their careers. Labour have a similar advantage in relation to the Lib Dems. If they had even 30 MPs defections from Corbyn would have been nailed on but who wants to join an irrelevance?

    If Zac wins London that is one by election but the Tories should fancy their chances there unless they are deep in mid term Blues by then. Otherwise I agree with David that Cameron has a much, much better chance of making his majority last than Major did.

    Heathrow expansion will lose it for the blues in Richmond.
    Maybe. It appears that there may not be a major candidate in the Mayoral election supporting the airport expansion the City desperately needs and yet all of them claiming to be pro business. It is curious.
  • Excellent piece Mr Herdson.

    Cameron has had an unbelievably lucky time as PM, able to deflect blame to the libs, after winning a surprise majority against dreadful opposition he has been presented with the gift that is Corbyn. The EU will pose far greater problems and I think (and sincerely hope) he won't cope well. The mood of the general public is completely different to that of parliament where I'd guess 90% of MPs would vote IN. The 10% will cause real problems for Cameron, more importantly the electorate look at the news and without staging demonstrations are quietly very worried.

    Cameron's best hope is to hold the referendum ASAP, OUT becomes more likely all the time. He'll know if that occurs his career and legacy are in tatters and people make mistakes under pressure.

    Thanks. Cameron has been lucky although to no small effect do you make your own luck, or at least make the most of what you're handed. Many people thought that failing to obtain a majority in 2010 would bring him down within months.

    But the EU is an issue that can't just be waved away. How to make the most of that when the rest of the continent isn't interested? One possibility is to come up with a solution in which they would be interested; which does address the issues of the Eurozone and migration. But the inevitable logic of that is more centralisation, not less.

    All the same, with Corbyn having been dragged firmly into the In camp, that leaves a lot of ambivalent Labour and ex-Labour voters for UKIP to go at initially during the referendum campaign.

    From a Conservative Party point of view, there is a good case for Cameron to resign shortly after the referendum whichever way it goes, and for the new leader to seek an immediate mandate, particularly if Corbyn still heads Labour.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JEO said:

    Foxinsoxuk,

    It seems crazy that we are limiting highly skilled doctors coming here when we have so much unskilled immigration from within and outside the EU.

    Much EU immigration is highly skilled. In Leicester we actively recruit Nurses from Spain and Portugal and Doctors from Greece:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/group-international-nurses-arrive-Leicester-s/story-21082251-detail/story.html

    Recruitment from outside the EU is very difficult:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-34191123

    There are only 30 000 tier 4 skilled immigration visas nationally, much of the remaining non -EU immigration is family reunification, spouse visas, students and refugees.

    Which of these do you think we should ban?

    And of course the obvious thing to do is expand UK nurse traing, and the number of postgraduate medical training places, but the Tories have reduced these. Joined up thinking? It doesn't seem so!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990
    JEO said:

    Foxinsoxuk,

    It seems crazy that we are limiting highly skilled doctors coming here when we have so much unskilled immigration from within and outside the EU.

    The BMA spent a lot on lobbying to get doctors excluded from the list.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990
    JEO said:

    Rcs1000,

    I'm waiting at a GP surgery walkin clinic. Because I can never get through during their limited periods they take appointments.

    Why are GPs allowed to limit how many appointments they take? It makes it impossible for patients to work out which ones are over subscribed. And for the government to monitor the true scale of excess demand.

    We should force all GPs to take appointments at all times, to publish the length of the waiting list and to scrap catchment areas. That means everyone can see where is easiest to get an appointment and help balance out demand over the network.

    Just some ideas.

    GPs are self employed, unlike hospital doctors. They receive money for every patient on their books, irrespective of how well they serve them. Hence many GPs surgeries serve their patients incredibly badly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,665

    family reunification

    If a non EU immigrant comes in, how much 'family' is s/he allowed. I note you had spousal visas listed separately.

    So this should just be his/her kids up to the age of 18, right ?
  • MikeK said:

    Good Morning All

    Sgt Blackman is my subject this morning:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3239156/Battle-justice-Jailed-commando-s-legal-campaign-gets-50k-boost-billionaire-philanthropist-Tory-peer-Lord-Ashcroft.html

    NavyLookout ‏@NavyLookout Sep 12
    Oliver Lee, Former CO of 45 Royal Marines resigned over betrayal of Sgt Blackman http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/angus-the-mearns/former-arbroath-co-quits-royal-marines-accusing-military-chiefs-of-alexander-blackman-betrayal-1.899550 …?

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews Sep 14
    Sgt Al Blackman 'hung out to dry' by politicians says wife http://tgr.ph/1iqwiC7

    Something has smelled about this case for months; now it stinks to high heaven.

    If due process has not been followed then he should face a retrial. However, his statement, recorded and in a calm, measured voice that he had "just broken the Geneva Convention" should be all the evidence needed to convict him for murder again.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    Foxinsoxuk,

    It seems crazy that we are limiting highly skilled doctors coming here when we have so much unskilled immigration from within and outside the EU.

    The BMA spent a lot on lobbying to get doctors excluded from the list.
    Unsuccesfully! Characteristic ineptitude by the BMA.

    In order to fill a vacancy with a non EU Doctor I need to have the advert on NHSJobs for 4 weeks, interview, ensure documentation allows GMC registration, and can then only get a visa for them if no appointable UK or EU resident applies. In practice this means it is very difficult to fill short term vacancies with this method to cover maternity leave etc, and more than half of our junior doctors are female rwenty and thirty somethings.

    Far easier to find a Greek locum, who can be automatically registered with the GMC. We could not keep our department viable without EU freedom of movement. Other specialities are worse; the East Mids GP scheme has many unfilled vacancies.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,073
    edited September 2015


    From a Conservative Party point of view, there is a good case for Cameron to resign shortly after the referendum whichever way it goes, and for the new leader to seek an immediate mandate, particularly if Corbyn still heads Labour.

    Alternatively, Cameron could change his position quickly. If OUT looks inevitable because he does not get the reforms needed then he could "reluctantly" recommend OUT
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    MTimT said:

    those who by virtue of birth are considered US citizens without need to go through a naturalization process, are considered natural born citizens. This includes all children of US citizens born overseas, in line with British law at that time, but expanded to include the children of mothers who were US citizens.

    Dammit. I'm going to have to find another reason to stop my daughter running for President.
  • rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    Foxinsoxuk,

    It seems crazy that we are limiting highly skilled doctors coming here when we have so much unskilled immigration from within and outside the EU.

    ..... In practice this means it is very difficult to fill short term vacancies with this method to cover maternity leave etc, and more than half of our junior doctors are female rwenty and thirty somethings....
    The problem of training lots of females as doctors. In their early years after getting trained many only work part time. As the proportion of male/female has altered with increasing % of females so the problems of vacancies etc have risen...
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656


    From a Conservative Party point of view, there is a good case for Cameron to resign shortly after the referendum whichever way it goes, and for the new leader to seek an immediate mandate, particularly if Corbyn still heads Labour.

    Alternatively, Cameron could change his position quickly. If OUT looks inevitable because he does not get the reforms needed then he could "reluctantly" recommend OUT
    If he doesn't get reasonable reforms he should absolutely be doing this. His legacy would be the bold leader that dared to take the UK out of the EU when it was unreformable, rather than the failure that couldn't keep the UK in.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Good Morning All

    Sgt Blackman is my subject this morning:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3239156/Battle-justice-Jailed-commando-s-legal-campaign-gets-50k-boost-billionaire-philanthropist-Tory-peer-Lord-Ashcroft.html

    NavyLookout ‏@NavyLookout Sep 12
    Oliver Lee, Former CO of 45 Royal Marines resigned over betrayal of Sgt Blackman http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/angus-the-mearns/former-arbroath-co-quits-royal-marines-accusing-military-chiefs-of-alexander-blackman-betrayal-1.899550 …?

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews Sep 14
    Sgt Al Blackman 'hung out to dry' by politicians says wife http://tgr.ph/1iqwiC7

    Something has smelled about this case for months; now it stinks to high heaven.

    If due process has not been followed then he should face a retrial. However, his statement, recorded and in a calm, measured voice that he had "just broken the Geneva Convention" should be all the evidence needed to convict him for murder again.
    People say and do a lot of things under the stress of battle, as I know. Even his CO has resigned because of the way the courts marshal was carried out. Next time you are in battle, Dave, let me know how you feel.
  • Astonishing story in the Sun about how Corbyn gave £45 in parliament to someone he thought was an IRA activist.

    The IRA man turned out to be con man and was found guilty of defrauding Corbyn and other crimes at the Old Bailey in 1987.

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn-tried-to-fund-ira-bombers-flight/

    Unbelievable this man is leader of the Labour party.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    MikeK said:

    Good Morning All

    Sgt Blackman is my subject this morning:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3239156/Battle-justice-Jailed-commando-s-legal-campaign-gets-50k-boost-billionaire-philanthropist-Tory-peer-Lord-Ashcroft.html

    NavyLookout ‏@NavyLookout Sep 12
    Oliver Lee, Former CO of 45 Royal Marines resigned over betrayal of Sgt Blackman http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/angus-the-mearns/former-arbroath-co-quits-royal-marines-accusing-military-chiefs-of-alexander-blackman-betrayal-1.899550 …?

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews Sep 14
    Sgt Al Blackman 'hung out to dry' by politicians says wife http://tgr.ph/1iqwiC7

    Something has smelled about this case for months; now it stinks to high heaven.

    Blackman, is a murderer and received an appropriate sentence. I know in your opinion that killing an unarmed prisoner was ok in this case because he was an Afghan, but most people don't agree.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    family reunification

    If a non EU immigrant comes in, how much 'family' is s/he allowed. I note you had spousal visas listed separately.

    So this should just be his/her kids up to the age of 18, right ?
    I think other dependents are also permitted, and know of no limit on numbers of children. So a student from the Middle East may bring a spouse and several children for some years. Both student and spouse are permitted to work, and a PhD can take a long time...

    Restricting immigration is not as easy as some would make out.
  • Mr. [Miss?] Berry, I could be wrong but my understanding is that's an old story which turned our to be erroneous.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited September 2015
    The original Times article was apparently later amended - but I've never seen what the change was.

    Someone with a student free access licence to the Times database may be able to find it.
    Blueberry said:

    Astonishing story in the Sun about how Corbyn gave £45 in parliament to someone he thought was an IRA activist.

    The IRA man turned out to be con man and was found guilty of defrauding Corbyn and other crimes at the Old Bailey in 1987.

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn-tried-to-fund-ira-bombers-flight/

    Unbelievable this man is leader of the Labour party.

  • MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Good Morning All

    Sgt Blackman is my subject this morning:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3239156/Battle-justice-Jailed-commando-s-legal-campaign-gets-50k-boost-billionaire-philanthropist-Tory-peer-Lord-Ashcroft.html

    NavyLookout ‏@NavyLookout Sep 12
    Oliver Lee, Former CO of 45 Royal Marines resigned over betrayal of Sgt Blackman http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/angus-the-mearns/former-arbroath-co-quits-royal-marines-accusing-military-chiefs-of-alexander-blackman-betrayal-1.899550 …?

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews Sep 14
    Sgt Al Blackman 'hung out to dry' by politicians says wife http://tgr.ph/1iqwiC7

    Something has smelled about this case for months; now it stinks to high heaven.

    If due process has not been followed then he should face a retrial. However, his statement, recorded and in a calm, measured voice that he had "just broken the Geneva Convention" should be all the evidence needed to convict him for murder again.
    People say and do a lot of things under the stress of battle, as I know. Even his CO has resigned because of the way the courts marshal was carried out. Next time you are in battle, Dave, let me know how you feel.
    I said that if process wasn't properly followed there should be a retrial.

    I don't doubt that being in battle is a stressful situation but soldiers are trained for that and do know their rules of engagement. From the reports, it sounds as if his team are not contesting whether he committed a crime, just what that crime was.

    We cannot simply ignore rules of war and of engagement simply because battle is hard, any more than because the soldier in question happened to be wearing a British uniform. That is the road to justifying - or at least excusing away - any behaviour.
  • Mr. [Miss?] Berry, I could be wrong but my understanding is that's an old story which turned our to be erroneous.

    One would have thought Old Bailey records would be easy enough to check - I presume the Sun would do that before maligning a politician?
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