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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes poll finds Corbyn with near identical ratings as Osb

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes poll finds Corbyn with near identical ratings as Osborne

After the poor first week Corbyn has endured, he and Labour will be delighted with the headline voting intention that sees Labour up 1% and not down though the Tories are up 2% as well (though these are the epitome of margin of error changes.) in the ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,308
    FPT
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Brilliant result for West Ham. Incredible.

    Puts us foxes down to third place. Though now the only unbeaten team in the Premier League.
    We have a banner at the Emirates asking 'Is your's gold?' - referring to the unbeaten season, and I was just about to say that it's safe for another year. But not quite safe!
  • FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,467
    Well, it could have been worse for Corbyn and 30% means they are unchanged since the election and above Foot's 27% score. However, the fact the Tories are also up from 37% to 42% since the election means there has still be a swing to the Conservatives since May
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Do any Tory MPs have beards? I've never been one of those beards mean you're hiding something types.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226

    Do any Tory MPs have beards? I've never been one of those beards mean you're hiding something types.

    The Welsh Minister does. I think.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Well, it could have been worse for Corbyn and 30% means they are unchanged since the election and above Foot's 27% score. However, the fact the Tories are also up from 37% to 42% since the election means there has still be a swing to the Conservatives since May

    Give it a few weeks. It takes a while for effects to show in polls.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,399
    Burnham would have been up on Osborne. possibly Cooper too once she had settled in. Will Osborne's stock get higher than it is now?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335
    The poll shows primarily how stable most voters are. After what we can all agree was a baptism of fire for Corbyn, almost no change in VI, and fairly nuanced stuff about the anthem, age, media treatment etc. Since any party leader tends to attract anti-scores from all other parties, Corbyn's figure as a controversial newcomer doesn't look especially low. Nor is there an instant honeymoon. Plenty of don't knows at the moment - we'll have to see how they split in due course, but we should all calm down while we wait for the next course (the conferences).
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,815
    HYUFD said:

    Well, it could have been worse for Corbyn and 30% means they are unchanged since the election and above Foot's 27% score. However, the fact the Tories are also up from 37% to 42% since the election means there has still be a swing to the Conservatives since May

    True - but every Comres poll since May has been saying that - unlike other pollsters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226
    Artist said:

    Burnham would have been up on Osborne. possibly Cooper too once she had settled in. Will Osborne's stock get higher than it is now?

    He is already the most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,335



    Give it a few weeks. It takes a while for effects to show in polls.

    Is that in fact the case, though? I've seen research somewhere (but can't lay my hands on it) that most political events have either an immediate effect or no effect, since people don't follow it that closely and they either react or not at all.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,846
    How does that Sturgeon -19% compare with previous results?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,815
    Artist said:

    Burnham would have been up on Osborne. possibly Cooper too once she had settled in. Will Osborne's stock get higher than it is now?

    I suspect Osborne has hit his peak already.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    Not too bad considering. Well done JC.
  • First new leader to have such a small bounce in polling?
  • RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?

    The Spanish government - which has basically created the whole situation through its unbelievable stupidity - got a ruling from the Supreme Court which declared a planned referendum illegal as it would violate the Spanish constitution. This says that only the Spanish people as a whole can change the territorial limits of the country.

    What happens to Catalonia as a result of UDI will show what a stupid idea it is. But the whole of Spain will suffer and Europe may well do too. This is going to paralyse the continent's fourth largest economy for months and years to come.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226



    Give it a few weeks. It takes a while for effects to show in polls.

    Is that in fact the case, though? I've seen research somewhere (but can't lay my hands on it) that most political events have either an immediate effect or no effect, since people don't follow it that closely and they either react or not at all.

    Wouldn't a counter to that be the "omnishambles" budget?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548



    Give it a few weeks. It takes a while for effects to show in polls.

    Is that in fact the case, though? I've seen research somewhere (but can't lay my hands on it) that most political events have either an immediate effect or no effect, since people don't follow it that closely and they either react or not at all.

    Just my observation over the years for what it is worth.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    First new leader to have been called a threat to national security by the dear leader, I mean prime minister? Not bad going for a tinpot dictatorship.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,395
    This sort of polling is the worst for Labour. There are just enough crumbs of comfort (skilfully gathered by TSE) for Jezbollah to claim they can bake the cake of victory, even as the overall figures point to a very punishing defeat.

    So Corbyn clings on...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    May I ask? Did your house burn down or is it a euphemism? If the former, my condolences.

    First new leader to have such a small bounce in polling?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?

    The Spanish government - which has basically created the whole situation through its unbelievable stupidity - got a ruling from the Supreme Court which declared a planned referendum illegal as it would violate the Spanish constitution. This says that only the Spanish people as a whole can change the territorial limits of the country.

    What happens to Catalonia as a result of UDI will show what a stupid idea it is. But the whole of Spain will suffer and Europe may well do too. This is going to paralyse the continent's fourth largest economy for months and years to come.

    Anything stopping them running an illegal vote? I suppose the No camp could boycott.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,467

    First new leader to have such a small bounce in polling?

    IDS and Foot had negative bounces in their first polls, Hague was up about 1%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,839
    edited September 2015
    6% have a favourable view of John McDonnell.

    Who are these people?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I thought the accepted wisdom was about two weeks max to see an effect. If nothing happens by then, it's not going to.



    Give it a few weeks. It takes a while for effects to show in polls.

    Is that in fact the case, though? I've seen research somewhere (but can't lay my hands on it) that most political events have either an immediate effect or no effect, since people don't follow it that closely and they either react or not at all.

    Just my observation over the years for what it is worth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,467

    HYUFD said:

    Well, it could have been worse for Corbyn and 30% means they are unchanged since the election and above Foot's 27% score. However, the fact the Tories are also up from 37% to 42% since the election means there has still be a swing to the Conservatives since May

    Give it a few weeks. It takes a while for effects to show in polls.
    We will see
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 40,467
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well, it could have been worse for Corbyn and 30% means they are unchanged since the election and above Foot's 27% score. However, the fact the Tories are also up from 37% to 42% since the election means there has still be a swing to the Conservatives since May

    True - but every Comres poll since May has been saying that - unlike other pollsters.
    Will see what future polls bring from other companies
  • DavidL said:

    6% have a favourable view of John McDonnell.

    Who are these people?

    Jeremy Corbyn, Martin McGuinness, Gerry Adams.....
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?

    The Spanish government - which has basically created the whole situation through its unbelievable stupidity - got a ruling from the Supreme Court which declared a planned referendum illegal as it would violate the Spanish constitution. This says that only the Spanish people as a whole can change the territorial limits of the country.

    What happens to Catalonia as a result of UDI will show what a stupid idea it is. But the whole of Spain will suffer and Europe may well do too. This is going to paralyse the continent's fourth largest economy for months and years to come.

    Anything stopping them running an illegal vote? I suppose the No camp could boycott.

    That's basically what happened last November. It was termed a consultation and had a turnout of about 45%. The No parties boycotted it and Yes won something like 85% of the votes cast. This election will have a 70% plus turnout. Even though it is a PR vote it is not certain that the Yes parties will get a majority of the votes, though a majority of the seats now looks certain. It's a total mess.

  • HYUFD said:

    First new leader to have such a small bounce in polling?

    IDS and Foot had negative bounces in their first polls, Hague was up about 1%
    IDS was unfortunate that he won days after 9/11 and the country was rallying behind Blair.
  • You had two hours notice to write this thread - and there’s no 80s pop song in it – slipping?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841

    First new leader to have such a small bounce in polling?

    Miliband did not have any immediate bounce, although he inherited a better position due to the LibDem meltdown after the 2010 election.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    Turns out the PB Tories aren't a scientific sample of the country after all. Who knew?
    ;)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,973
    edited September 2015
    FPT:

    I agree. Labour is not only stupid, it is lazy. And it has let down millions and millions of people.

    That's the worst thing about the election of Corbyn. The Conservatives essentially have no opposition now. Great news for the Conservatives and their activists, bad news for the country.

    @ReggieCide It's typo (obviously) should have said dyed. Also don't get your 'royalty' comment.

    As for the ComRes poll re right-wing parties, it'd be better to get an overall average of all the polls, or wait until the 2016 May Elections. In any case it would probably be unwise to assume that all of those voters have the same outlook to Tories online. Some of those voters will be floating voters, many of whom are moderates with some socially liberal views. Others (most likely those who veer towards UKIP) will be socially conservative, but have concerns on economic inequality, and are likely to be dissatisfied with the way the system is working for them. This is in contrast to the general theories on here about how content the electorate are overall with things.

    FPT:
    JWisemann said:

    It's not going to happen overnight, but a rejuvenated Labour Party cleared of the dead wood of the last administration and reborn from the ashes with a massively increased membership could easily be something to fear not so long down the line, when Corbyn has stepped down for fresh new faces and the Tories have had to deal with a recession and the fact that a lot of their policies actually won't be very popular when people eventually find out about them.

    I certainly think down the line many people will find out a very bad reality in regard to Conservative polices. However, in order to capitalise on this Labour need an electable leader, a membership and activist base willingly to face reality (and be 90s style desparate to win a GE) as well as a reduction in the influence of Unite and McCluskey.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841
    edited September 2015
    Artist said:

    Burnham would have been up on Osborne. possibly Cooper too once she had settled in. Will Osborne's stock get higher than it is now?

    Yes - the complete mismatch between the regard the Westminster bubble has for Osborne and public opinion is baffling. To be a popular PM/party leader these days*, you need to have atleast some likeability - Cameron has a bit atleast, George has absolutely zero.

    *Of course I should say to be a successful PM if you're facing a decent opposition, which of course is no cert right now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,839
    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?
  • You had two hours notice to write this thread - and there’s no 80s pop song in it – slipping?

    Distracted by the Rugby and Doctor Who.

    Plus I'm absolutely sated by this stint as Guest Editor.

    It has been the most exciting time and I'm utterly spent.

    I never want to write another thread for at least three months.
  • Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    JWisemann said:

    Turns out the PB Tories aren't a scientific sample of the country after all. Who knew?
    ;)

    You remind me of IOS, how long before you slink off with your tail between your legs like he did I wonder?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,395

    You had two hours notice to write this thread - and there’s no 80s pop song in it – slipping?

    Distracted by the Rugby and Doctor Who.

    Plus I'm absolutely sated by this stint as Guest Editor.

    It has been the most exciting time and I'm utterly spent.

    I never want to write another thread for at least three months.
    Well done mate. Sterling performance. Have a well earned beverage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,969
    edited September 2015

    Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    Yup.

    I was so tense. They were behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.

    That was brilliant.
  • SeanT said:

    You had two hours notice to write this thread - and there’s no 80s pop song in it – slipping?

    Distracted by the Rugby and Doctor Who.

    Plus I'm absolutely sated by this stint as Guest Editor.

    It has been the most exciting time and I'm utterly spent.

    I never want to write another thread for at least three months.
    Well done mate. Sterling performance. Have a well earned beverage.
    Cheers. It is appreciated
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?

    The Spanish government - which has basically created the whole situation through its unbelievable stupidity - got a ruling from the Supreme Court which declared a planned referendum illegal as it would violate the Spanish constitution. This says that only the Spanish people as a whole can change the territorial limits of the country.

    What happens to Catalonia as a result of UDI will show what a stupid idea it is. But the whole of Spain will suffer and Europe may well do too. This is going to paralyse the continent's fourth largest economy for months and years to come.

    It may be interesting from a Scottish viewpoint if they get away with it. After all that is how the first parliament formed in Ireland. No plebiscite there as I recall (though both the Black and Tan war and a bizarre Irish Civil war)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,973
    edited September 2015
    It's only one poll, but I also recall that MORI's figures which weren't too dissimilar either. I wouldn't be too surprised if this was representative, given that both Corbyn and Osborne are just as terrible as each other. One has bat-shit crazy ideas, the other a career politician to a T who is more defined by cunning and political intelligence than he is actually is wanting to making this country a better place for all. They both also lack traits such charisma, affability etc.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    saddened said:

    JWisemann said:

    Turns out the PB Tories aren't a scientific sample of the country after all. Who knew?
    ;)

    You remind me of IOS, how long before you slink off with your tail between your legs like he did I wonder?
    If I didn't after the horrors of May, I think you could be stuck with me for a while ;)
  • Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    Yup.

    I was so tense. They behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.

    That was brilliant.

    That is absolutely unbelievable.

    Rugby is a sport where you get far fewer shocks, so one like that is just extraordinary.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    You had two hours notice to write this thread - and there’s no 80s pop song in it – slipping?

    Distracted by the Rugby and Doctor Who.

    Plus I'm absolutely sated by this stint as Guest Editor.

    It has been the most exciting time and I'm utterly spent.

    I never want to write another thread for at least three months.
    Perhaps the AV thread can be dusted off?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841
    edited September 2015
    DavidL said:

    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?

    Osborne rates reasonably well when asked specifically how people think he's doing as Chancellor, because people think he's competent (unfairly IMO, but there it is).

    But as Brown found out, if you're the frontman it's not enough to just be competent, people need to like you as a person. His favourable ratings, and his ratings when people are asked if they want him to be PM, have always been dire.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    JWisemann said:

    saddened said:

    JWisemann said:

    Turns out the PB Tories aren't a scientific sample of the country after all. Who knew?
    ;)

    You remind me of IOS, how long before you slink off with your tail between your legs like he did I wonder?
    If I didn't after the horrors of May, I think you could be stuck with me for a while ;)
    Hope so.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,395
    DavidL said:

    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?

    Osborne would be a very bad choice by the Tories. George was right the first time, about his own chances, he's got a good face for the radio.

    Javid is a decent option. The optimal outcome, for Conservatives, is Cameron changing his mind and doing another stint.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,226
    edited September 2015

    You had two hours notice to write this thread - and there’s no 80s pop song in it – slipping?

    Distracted by the Rugby and Doctor Who.

    Plus I'm absolutely sated by this stint as Guest Editor.

    It has been the most exciting time and I'm utterly spent.

    I never want to write another thread for at least three months.
    TSE bottling the AV thread? :(

    I jest, good job as always!
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,395

    Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    The last 20 minutes were some of the most amazing I've ever seen in any sport.
  • RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?

    The Spanish government - which has basically created the whole situation through its unbelievable stupidity - got a ruling from the Supreme Court which declared a planned referendum illegal as it would violate the Spanish constitution. This says that only the Spanish people as a whole can change the territorial limits of the country.

    What happens to Catalonia as a result of UDI will show what a stupid idea it is. But the whole of Spain will suffer and Europe may well do too. This is going to paralyse the continent's fourth largest economy for months and years to come.

    It may be interesting from a Scottish viewpoint if they get away with it. After all that is how the first parliament formed in Ireland. No plebiscite there as I recall (though both the Black and Tan war and a bizarre Irish Civil war)

    It'll show the Scots that UDI is not a viable option. But it is going to bugger Spain up something rotten as Catalonia is 20% of the economy or something like that. It'll be interesting to see how the IBEX reacts on Monday and what happens to Spanish government bonds.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Well that's me done for tonight - have fun everyone.
  • @TSE – yes, your guest editor slot has been a bit of a humdinger, politically speaking.

    You did good, enjoy your well-earned sabbatical.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 867
    FPT - JEO said:


    ''Who says the living wage is putting low skilled workers up beyond the value for their employers? It's possible the market wage is 20% below the living wage, but the value to employers is 20% higher than the living wage. We might lose a tiny amount of cockle picking-like work, but it'll be small fry in the scheme of things.''



    What you consider 'small fry' to the people involved could be a lively-hood, and first step on the ladder, the beginning of a working life and the dignity of providing for oneself and your family!!!

    For a 17 year, let down by one of many appalling schools, for the prisoner who as come to the end of a long period of incrassation but wants to go strate, for the single mother who don't what to completely leave the work force, but can only work and limited times. For all these people the opportunities will only be there if you let them have the freedom to price them selves in to the market.

    The lore Supply and demand are as much a Lore of Gravity, you can pass a Vote to cancel it in the HoC but you still cant jump out of plane at 20,000 feet without bad things happening.

    Yes there will be times where someone is being paid 20% less than the values they are crating, But in a FREE market, that gives somebody else the opportunity to set up a competitor, doing exactly the same but with a slightly slimmer profit margin. and poach the man on slightly higher wage, maybe only 15%, and then the next only 10% below, and so on until eventually he is being paid 99.99% of the vale he is crating. And yes this will take time, but in that time he is being paid, gaining skills, and contributing to the overall economy. Not siting at home unemployed wasting his life, waiting for the socialist Utopia that never arrives. (for example look at Veneswala)
  • How many times in the run-up to the election did Milliband have dreadful days which failed to move the polls an iota?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    I think there are a couple of caveats you need to make: firstly, there are a lot of Catalonia opinion polls (see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Catalonian_parliamentary_election,_2015). There is only one grouping Junts pel Si which believes in a UDI. Opinion polling for Catalan independence has shown a narrow majority in favour of staying in Spain (50 vs 45 IIRC).

    Secondly, other Catalan parties - Popular Unity Candidacy or Catalonia Yes We Can - are much more ambivalent about independence or greater powers for Catalonia, and neither believe in independence without a referendum.

    Thirdly, imagine if the SNP got 40% in Scotland (roughly the equivalent position of JpS), and declared a UDI despite opinion polls showing a majority of people against it.

    I know you believe that the pro Spanish majority would remain utterly silent. I don't believe that is so. I think UDI, which would involve leaving the EU and repudiating Spanish debt, would be a much more risky and dangerous prospect that Scottish independence. Support for a UDI is less than 30% for that reason. Therefore, I suspect that JpS, if they achieve a majority (and I suspect they'll come just short), will be much more likely to compromise than their pre election bombast.
  • Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    I'd advise you to put some money on Spurs to win the Premiership but what's the point since we're so clearly in the end times.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,296
    RobD said:

    Artist said:

    Burnham would have been up on Osborne. possibly Cooper too once she had settled in. Will Osborne's stock get higher than it is now?

    He is already the most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm!
    I think not .... :smile:

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?

    The Spanish government - which has basically created the whole situation through its unbelievable stupidity - got a ruling from the Supreme Court which declared a planned referendum illegal as it would violate the Spanish constitution. This says that only the Spanish people as a whole can change the territorial limits of the country.

    What happens to Catalonia as a result of UDI will show what a stupid idea it is. But the whole of Spain will suffer and Europe may well do too. This is going to paralyse the continent's fourth largest economy for months and years to come.

    Anything stopping them running an illegal vote? I suppose the No camp could boycott.

    That's basically what happened last November. It was termed a consultation and had a turnout of about 45%. The No parties boycotted it and Yes won something like 85% of the votes cast. This election will have a 70% plus turnout. Even though it is a PR vote it is not certain that the Yes parties will get a majority of the votes, though a majority of the seats now looks certain. It's a total mess.

    The Catalan independence referendum last year had 2.3m votes, against a population of 7.5m. Now, that population number includes children, but there certainly was nowhere near 45% turnout. Even the highest estimate - from a pro-Catalan newspaper - had it at only 41%. Everyone else had turnout in the 30s.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,296
    DavidL said:

    6% have a favourable view of John McDonnell.

    Who are these people?

    Some residents of West Belfast ?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,990
    @SouthamObserver

    My understanding from Spain is that the Spanish government has a "kick the can down the road" plan, that involves a 2016-2019 constitutional convention, that would be ratified in a 2020 nationwide poll, and would involve both greater powers for Catalonia, and the possibility of a legitimate referendum in 2021 on Catalonian independence.

    I suspect that would be enough to make quite a lot of Catalan independence supporters say "well, it's only a few years to wait, and it means we'd leave Spain in an organised and legitimate manner..."
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 867
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?

    Osborne would be a very bad choice by the Tories. George was right the first time, about his own chances, he's got a good face for the radio.

    Javid is a decent option. The optimal outcome, for Conservatives, is Cameron changing his mind and doing another stint.
    Most of the speculation about the next Leader of the conservative Party centre around Osborn or Boris, with the occasional look at Javid. But I think one name that is not being talked about is Dr Liam Fox.

    We don't know how the referendum will play out and what role he will play in it, but I can see many scenarios that could see him, already popular with Tory grass roots, becoming even more of a hero to many.

    I have never placed a political bet, (or any for that mater) with a bookmaker, perhaps someone on here could tell me, what odds I could get for him?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,296
    rcs1000 said:

    @SouthamObserver

    My understanding from Spain is that the Spanish government has a "kick the can down the road" plan, that involves a 2016-2019 constitutional convention, that would be ratified in a 2020 nationwide poll, and would involve both greater powers for Catalonia, and the possibility of a legitimate referendum in 2021 on Catalonian independence.

    I suspect that would be enough to make quite a lot of Catalan independence supporters say "well, it's only a few years to wait, and it means we'd leave Spain in an organised and legitimate manner..."

    Do the Catalans nationalists have a SNP fruit fly "once in a generation" approach to referendums?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,420
    DavidL said:

    6% have a favourable view of John McDonnell.

    Who are these people?

    Shinners?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?
    They are having a plebiscite on Sunday and are offering the occupying power the opportunity to consolidate that with a specific referendum.

    If the occupying power refuses, they are entitled to declare their independence under pretty much all international treaties, most of which the occupying power are signed up to.

    This is tremendous news for democracy.
  • Opinium Poll

    The poll showed that, while enthusiasm for Corbyn and interest in his election as leader may have had a small positive effect on Labour’s ratings, there has been no huge bounce.

    The Tories remain well ahead on 37%, with Labour on 32%, Ukip on 14% and the Liberal Democrats, who are gathering this weekend in Bournemouth for the first time since their disastrous general election result, on 6%.

    The figures are similar to the final share of the vote in May’s general election when the Tories secured 36.9%, Labour 30.4%, Ukip 12.6% and the Lib Dems 7.9%.

    Some encouragement for Labour can be found, however, by comparing today’s poll with a post-general election poll conducted by Opinium at the beginning of June – well before Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign to be leader had come to the notice of the public. This put the Tories on 39%, Labour on 30%, Ukip on 12% and the Lib Dems on 7%.

    Since then, therefore, Labour has cut the Tory lead from 9pts to 5pts.

    http://bit.ly/1F8vtYN
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?

    Osborne would be a very bad choice by the Tories. George was right the first time, about his own chances, he's got a good face for the radio.

    Javid is a decent option. The optimal outcome, for Conservatives, is Cameron changing his mind and doing another stint.
    Most of the speculation about the next Leader of the conservative Party centre around Osborn or Boris, with the occasional look at Javid. But I think one name that is not being talked about is Dr Liam Fox.

    We don't know how the referendum will play out and what role he will play in it, but I can see many scenarios that could see him, already popular with Tory grass roots, becoming even more of a hero to many.

    I have never placed a political bet, (or any for that mater) with a bookmaker, perhaps someone on here could tell me, what odds I could get for him?
    80/1 with Bet365 and SkyBet.

    I think Javid is in a strong position but too early to tell.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,612
    What I would take from this pick and mix set of questions is the, Is David Cameron a danger.... The 25% there to my mind represents the nominal left base (Green, Labour and the odds and sods). If Labour slips below 25% that may represent the tipping point. From a purely partisan PB perspective, I would suggest that if the epitome of weathercock that is Nick Palmer starts expressing doubts then it really is game over.
  • PIGEON BOMBS

    Session: 2003-04
    Date tabled: 21.05.2004
    Primary sponsor: Banks, Tony

    That this House is appalled, but barely surprised, at the revelations in M15 files regarding the bizarre and inhumane proposals to use pigeons as flying bombs; recognises the important and live-saving role of carrier pigeons in two world wars and wonders at the lack of gratitude towards these gentle creatures; and believes that humans represent the most obscene, perverted, cruel, uncivilised and lethal species ever to inhabit the planet and looks forward to the day when the inevitable asteroid slams into the earth and wipes them out thus giving nature the opportunity to start again.

    Signatories:

    Banks, Tony
    Corbyn, Jeremy
    McDonnell, John
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,815
    Those Opinium figures are not bad for Labour really.
  • Things can change very quickly.Labour's membership increase is startling,popping up in places otherwise extinct,like Tunbridge Wells.Labour should be able to field a full slate for all local elections and by-elections.Think global,act local.Fracking is causing furore in Wiltshire and Somerset so expect the Tories to have a few pitchforks ready.There are no no-go areas for Labour.Surrey is about to get fracked too,once they've experimented with the desolate north.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited September 2015


    It may be interesting from a Scottish viewpoint if they get away with it. After all that is how the first parliament formed in Ireland. No plebiscite there as I recall (though both the Black and Tan war and a bizarre Irish Civil war)

    It'll show the Scots that UDI is not a viable option. But it is going to bugger Spain up something rotten as Catalonia is 20% of the economy or something like that. It'll be interesting to see how the IBEX reacts on Monday and what happens to Spanish government bonds.
    The only ones to suffer will be the Castillian colonialists who will be significantly harmed if they do anything but accept the inevitable.

    Castille and France are going to look incredibly stupid over this while the Catalans will find plenty of friends to help them out.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,808
    edited September 2015
    MP_SE said:

    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?

    Osborne would be a very bad choice by the Tories. George was right the first time, about his own chances, he's got a good face for the radio.

    Javid is a decent option. The optimal outcome, for Conservatives, is Cameron changing his mind and doing another stint.
    Most of the speculation about the next Leader of the conservative Party centre around Osborn or Boris, with the occasional look at Javid. But I think one name that is not being talked about is Dr Liam Fox.

    We don't know how the referendum will play out and what role he will play in it, but I can see many scenarios that could see him, already popular with Tory grass roots, becoming even more of a hero to many.

    I have never placed a political bet, (or any for that mater) with a bookmaker, perhaps someone on here could tell me, what odds I could get for him?
    80/1 with Bet365 and SkyBet.

    I think Javid is in a strong position but too early to tell.
    I can't see Fox getting into the last two that MPs put through to the members ballot.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,665
    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?

    Osborne would be a very bad choice by the Tories. George was right the first time, about his own chances, he's got a good face for the radio.

    Javid is a decent option. The optimal outcome, for Conservatives, is Cameron changing his mind and doing another stint.
    Most of the speculation about the next Leader of the conservative Party centre around Osborn or Boris, with the occasional look at Javid. But I think one name that is not being talked about is Dr Liam Fox.

    We don't know how the referendum will play out and what role he will play in it, but I can see many scenarios that could see him, already popular with Tory grass roots, becoming even more of a hero to many.

    I have never placed a political bet, (or any for that mater) with a bookmaker, perhaps someone on here could tell me, what odds I could get for him?
    Some 230-250 to 1 available on Betfair - help yourself.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.105756340

    Can't see the appeal myself.
  • rcs1000 said:

    @SouthamObserver

    My understanding from Spain is that the Spanish government has a "kick the can down the road" plan, that involves a 2016-2019 constitutional convention, that would be ratified in a 2020 nationwide poll, and would involve both greater powers for Catalonia, and the possibility of a legitimate referendum in 2021 on Catalonian independence.

    I suspect that would be enough to make quite a lot of Catalan independence supporters say "well, it's only a few years to wait, and it means we'd leave Spain in an organised and legitimate manner..."

    This whole mess has been caused by the PP refusing to contemplate more powers for Catalonia and by the PP-dominated Constitutional Court overturning the results of the referendum in Catalonia endorsing the new constitutional settlement agreed between the Catalan government and the previous PSOE government in Madrid.

    I agree that a Basque level of self-government would do most Catalans fine, but is PP - Spanish nationalist to its core - going to back down and agree that? I doubt it. The best hope is that the latest poll is wrong and that the independence bloc - Junts + CUP - don't get a majority. If they do, the promises made will make a climbdown politically impossible. I could ser Convergencia maybe trying, but ERC will not - they are fundamentalists and would take to the streets. They would do the same were pro-Spanish groups to protest the result. A change in government in Madrid in December, or even a PP/Ciudadanos coalition, would also help.

    But whatever happens the next few months and even years are going to be awful in Catalonia.




  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    rcs1000 said:

    I think there are a couple of caveats you need to make: firstly, there are a lot of Catalonia opinion polls (see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Catalonian_parliamentary_election,_2015). There is only one grouping Junts pel Si which believes in a UDI. Opinion polling for Catalan independence has shown a narrow majority in favour of staying in Spain (50 vs 45 IIRC).

    Those polls are great for highlighting the utter stupidity of the Castillian government and how they have handled it.

    It has strong parallels with the United Kingdom.

    The main change has been the utter destruction of the Middle Ground/Federalist supporters who are now dead in the water and are never likely to recover (which is also why the more Federalist parties have suffered at the ballot box).

    A Federal Spanish State would have been both preferable and better for most people in Spain and possibly even Catalonia but the Castillians believe Spain is theirs and they should always have the final word.

    Now they will pay the price.
  • Dair said:

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?
    They are having a plebiscite on Sunday and are offering the occupying power the opportunity to consolidate that with a specific referendum.

    If the occupying power refuses, they are entitled to declare their independence under pretty much all international treaties, most of which the occupying power are signed up to.

    This is tremendous news for democracy.

    When the Spanish constitution was submitted to the Spanish people for approval by referendum in 1978, approximately 75% of Catalans voted in favour of it.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    rcs1000 said:

    @SouthamObserver

    My understanding from Spain is that the Spanish government has a "kick the can down the road" plan, that involves a 2016-2019 constitutional convention, that would be ratified in a 2020 nationwide poll, and would involve both greater powers for Catalonia, and the possibility of a legitimate referendum in 2021 on Catalonian independence.

    I suspect that would be enough to make quite a lot of Catalan independence supporters say "well, it's only a few years to wait, and it means we'd leave Spain in an organised and legitimate manner..."

    And kicking the can down the road has only achieved one thing - the Federalist/More Powers option has been destroyed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,215
    I'm still laughing about the Japan result.
  • Dair said:


    It may be interesting from a Scottish viewpoint if they get away with it. After all that is how the first parliament formed in Ireland. No plebiscite there as I recall (though both the Black and Tan war and a bizarre Irish Civil war)

    It'll show the Scots that UDI is not a viable option. But it is going to bugger Spain up something rotten as Catalonia is 20% of the economy or something like that. It'll be interesting to see how the IBEX reacts on Monday and what happens to Spanish government bonds.
    The only ones to suffer will be the Castillian colonialists who will be significantly harmed if they do anything but accept the inevitable.

    Castille and France are going to look incredibly stupid over this while the Catalans will find plenty of friends to help them out.

    You know as much about this as you do about VAT
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?
    They are having a plebiscite on Sunday and are offering the occupying power the opportunity to consolidate that with a specific referendum.

    If the occupying power refuses, they are entitled to declare their independence under pretty much all international treaties, most of which the occupying power are signed up to.

    This is tremendous news for democracy.

    When the Spanish constitution was submitted to the Spanish people for approval by referendum in 1978, approximately 75% of Catalans voted in favour of it.

    Last time I looked, it was not 1978.
  • You know it is quite something when Labour people are relieved with polls showing them 12 and 5% behind the Tories
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,840

    First new leader to have such a small bounce in polling?

    Blair had no bounce.
  • The early polls cannot be a
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?
    They are having a plebiscite on Sunday and are offering the occupying power the opportunity to consolidate that with a specific referendum.

    If the occupying power refuses, they are entitled to declare their independence under pretty much all international treaties, most of which the occupying power are signed up to.

    This is tremendous news for democracy.

    When the Spanish constitution was submitted to the Spanish people for approval by referendum in 1978, approximately 75% of Catalans voted in favour of it.

    Last time I looked, it was not 1978.

    The idea Catalonia is occupied or a colony is ludicrous given the 1978 vote. It also demeans all those countries that are genuinely repressed, occupied or colonised. You know nothing about it Dair.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,078
    Getting worse for LDs. Maybe terminal.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:


    It may be interesting from a Scottish viewpoint if they get away with it. After all that is how the first parliament formed in Ireland. No plebiscite there as I recall (though both the Black and Tan war and a bizarre Irish Civil war)

    It'll show the Scots that UDI is not a viable option. But it is going to bugger Spain up something rotten as Catalonia is 20% of the economy or something like that. It'll be interesting to see how the IBEX reacts on Monday and what happens to Spanish government bonds.
    The only ones to suffer will be the Castillian colonialists who will be significantly harmed if they do anything but accept the inevitable.

    Castille and France are going to look incredibly stupid over this while the Catalans will find plenty of friends to help them out.

    You know as much about this as you do about VAT
    The reality of the situation seems to be beyond you. There are only so many Colonialists left in the world. Obviously the big centralised states of Castille, France and possibly Italy will do whatever they can to destabilise the situation. But their hopes seem to be faced with a reality that has always happened.

    Colonialism fails and is diluted. The Castillian Empire is not long for this world. It failed to do what France did and completely subjugate the occupied territories. The United Kingdom faces the same fate.

    Eventually coherent nations re-assert themselves. It will happen in Spain and will happen in Britain. At some point you will need to accept this.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 867
    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Actually joking aside Osborne will be pretty disappointed with these figures. He has been getting fairly rave reviews even from left of centre reporters etc. of late and has been looking nailed on as Cameron's heir. Was he not the most popular politician (outside Scotland) before the election?

    Osborne would be a very bad choice by the Tories. George was right the first time, about his own chances, he's got a good face for the radio.

    Javid is a decent option. The optimal outcome, for Conservatives, is Cameron changing his mind and doing another stint.
    Most of the speculation about the next Leader of the conservative Party centre around Osborn or Boris, with the occasional look at Javid. But I think one name that is not being talked about is Dr Liam Fox.

    We don't know how the referendum will play out and what role he will play in it, but I can see many scenarios that could see him, already popular with Tory grass roots, becoming even more of a hero to many.

    I have never placed a political bet, (or any for that mater) with a bookmaker, perhaps someone on here could tell me, what odds I could get for him?
    Some 230-250 to 1 available on Betfair - help yourself.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.105756340

    Can't see the appeal myself.
    Many thanks for the Link
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    FPT ...

    Big news from Spain.

    The latest Catalonian opinion poll gives the Independence parties a clear majority:

    http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/09/19/catalunya/1442675432_555621.html

    The vote takes place next Sunday. And if the Independence parties win they have promised to declare independence in eighteen months, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Spanish government, which there will not be under any circumstances.

    If you have any kind of financial exposure or investment in Spain you should think very carefully about whether you want to maintain it. The next few months promise to be truly awful on a number of levels.

    Independence without a plebiscite?
    They are having a plebiscite on Sunday and are offering the occupying power the opportunity to consolidate that with a specific referendum.

    If the occupying power refuses, they are entitled to declare their independence under pretty much all international treaties, most of which the occupying power are signed up to.

    This is tremendous news for democracy.

    When the Spanish constitution was submitted to the Spanish people for approval by referendum in 1978, approximately 75% of Catalans voted in favour of it.

    Last time I looked, it was not 1978.

    The idea Catalonia is occupied or a colony is ludicrous given the 1978 vote. It also demeans all those countries that are genuinely repressed, occupied or colonised. You know nothing about it Dair.

    In 1978, Spain was a country emerging into democracy from a Fascist dictatorship. It was hardly in a position to quibble over specific details which were beyond the fundamental right of a democratic constitution.

    On top of that, if the United Kingdom had held a plebiscite in 1978 that all parts of it were unalienable and permanent parts of a Unitary State, it would likely have got 75% of the vote in Scotland back then.

    Times change. That is why democracies hold elections on a regular basis.
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:


    It may be interesting from a Scottish viewpoint if they get away with it. After all that is how the first parliament formed in Ireland. No plebiscite there as I recall (though both the Black and Tan war and a bizarre Irish Civil war)

    It'll show the Scots that UDI is not a viable option. But it is going to bugger Spain up something rotten as Catalonia is 20% of the economy or something like that. It'll be interesting to see how the IBEX reacts on Monday and what happens to Spanish government bonds.
    The only ones to suffer will be the Castillian colonialists who will be significantly harmed if they do anything but accept the inevitable.

    Castille and France are going to look incredibly stupid over this while the Catalans will find plenty of friends to help them out.

    You know as much about this as you do about VAT
    The reality of the situation seems to be beyond you. There are only so many Colonialists left in the world. Obviously the big centralised states of Castille, France and possibly Italy will do whatever they can to destabilise the situation. But their hopes seem to be faced with a reality that has always happened.

    Colonialism fails and is diluted. The Castillian Empire is not long for this world. It failed to do what France did and completely subjugate the occupied territories. The United Kingdom faces the same fate.

    Eventually coherent nations re-assert themselves. It will happen in Spain and will happen in Britain. At some point you will need to accept this.

    As I was saying ...

    You really have nothing remotely intetesting to say about this as you have no idea about what is going on.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,969
    edited September 2015

    Dair said:

    Dair said:


    It may be interesting from a Scottish viewpoint if they get away with it. After all that is how the first parliament formed in Ireland. No plebiscite there as I recall (though both the Black and Tan war and a bizarre Irish Civil war)

    It'll show the Scots that UDI is not a viable option. But it is going to bugger Spain up something rotten as Catalonia is 20% of the economy or something like that. It'll be interesting to see how the IBEX reacts on Monday and what happens to Spanish government bonds.
    The only ones to suffer will be the Castillian colonialists who will be significantly harmed if they do anything but accept the inevitable.

    Castille and France are going to look incredibly stupid over this while the Catalans will find plenty of friends to help them out.

    You know as much about this as you do about VAT
    The reality of the situation seems to be beyond you. There are only so many Colonialists left in the world. Obviously the big centralised states of Castille, France and possibly Italy will do whatever they can to destabilise the situation. But their hopes seem to be faced with a reality that has always happened.

    Colonialism fails and is diluted. The Castillian Empire is not long for this world. It failed to do what France did and completely subjugate the occupied territories. The United Kingdom faces the same fate.

    Eventually coherent nations re-assert themselves. It will happen in Spain and will happen in Britain. At some point you will need to accept this.

    As I was saying ...

    You really have nothing remotely intetesting to say about this as you have no idea about what is going on.

    I'd love Dair to explain to some Aboriginals or Native Americans about how vile and nasty the British colonisation of Scotland is
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    The reality of the situation seems to be beyond you. There are only so many Colonialists left in the world. Obviously the big centralised states of Castille, France and possibly Italy will do whatever they can to destabilise the situation. But their hopes seem to be faced with a reality that has always happened.

    Colonialism fails and is diluted. The Castillian Empire is not long for this world. It failed to do what France did and completely subjugate the occupied territories. The United Kingdom faces the same fate.

    Eventually coherent nations re-assert themselves. It will happen in Spain and will happen in Britain. At some point you will need to accept this.

    As I was saying ...

    You really have nothing remotely intetesting to say about this as you have no idea about what is going on.
    I seem to have far more idea than you do.

    The people of Catalonia are deciding to throw off the shackles of the Castillian Empire and form a nation state where they control what happens. It's called democracy.

    Your chief concern - that some businesses might lost money and investments should be pulled - are not democracy.
  • Early days of course and smallish sample of under 200 but still cold comfort for Corbyn's Labour from Comres in Scotland - SNP ahead by 49 per cent to 17 per cent!
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,077
    So the establishment have thrown everything at Corbyn the last week and Labour polling numbers have remained solid.
  • OMG another Corbyn scandal. The man is unfit to be PM. This involves dogging and otters

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPSqJlGWsAAp9j8.jpg
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