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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes poll finds Corbyn with near identical ratings as Osb

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  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I hope these two Tory MPs who went to see the rugby was not enjoying free hospitality.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    15% of the Very Right support Labour ?
    Well, 19% of the 'Very Left' are conservatives. Presumably we're seeing a combination of the terminally stupid and/or very confused.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Quincel said:

    Anyone else find it weird that despite: the US Presidential Primaries being a constant media focus; despite more money being spent already than we spent on our entire election; and despite the US media's love of the polling horserace even more than ours; no-one bothers to snap poll the primary debates? In fact it's been days since the CNN debate and we haven't had any national primary polling at all. How does that fit with the rest of the over the top focus on the primaries?

    There was only one snap poll done for the Romeny Obama debate where Obama 'lost'. It was entirely of old, rich, white, southeren voters. Literally 0 ethnic minorities or anyone on minimum wage. It was astounding demographics.
  • surbiton said:

    Sunday Times

    Half of Corbyn's shadow cabinet will back Cameron over air strikes in defiance of Jeremy's Corbyn's opposition

    The people will not back this one. Their CLPs will cut them out.
    More and more defections then and the ultimate distruction of the labour party sadly
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Meeting your constituents ? Tories say: What is that ?
    On what evidence do you say that. Our two adjacent constituencies in North Wales both have conservative MP's who hold regular constituency meetings and are in the local press all the time. But that's why they were both elected with increased majorities this year
    Do they prioritise Rugby freebies over constituents?
  • Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Doesn't explain why he didn't send someone in his place.
  • surbiton said:

    I hope these two Tory MPs who went to see the rugby was not enjoying free hospitality.

    Who said they went to the rugby
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Privatised GNER couldn't hack it though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    edited September 2015

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
  • Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Freebie junkie MPs would agree.

    I think true Rugby fans deserve tickets ahead of troughing politicians myself.
    So under Corbyn our National Events would not be supported - but he prefers to have Hamas, the IRA and Putin as his friends - says it all really
    Very insightful.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Basically, you are saying that the average voter would like their representatives to be freeloaders.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    What Conference!!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So what was the average Labour score in these polls ? Andy JS said it would be 27%.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Doesn't explain why he didn't send someone in his place.
    Was his seat empty?
  • surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Meeting your constituents ? Tories say: What is that ?
    On what evidence do you say that. Our two adjacent constituencies in North Wales both have conservative MP's who hold regular constituency meetings and are in the local press all the time. But that's why they were both elected with increased majorities this year
    Do they prioritise Rugby freebies over constituents?
    You are so out of order
  • The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    What Conference!!
    Started today
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Sunday Times

    Half of Corbyn's shadow cabinet will back Cameron over air strikes in defiance of Jeremy's Corbyn's opposition

    The people will not back this one. Their CLPs will cut them out.
    More and more defections then and the ultimate distruction of the labour party sadly
    Not a single MP will defect. They know what happened to the SDP traitors.
  • surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Basically, you are saying that the average voter would like their representatives to be freeloaders.
    Rubbish
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    All the MPs can fit in a minivan now, so atleast that will cut down their travel expenses. Might go some way to recoup their deposit losses.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    On 6% with a new leader bounce, the LDs are dead. Discuss.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    What Conference!!
    The partners of the Tory party are holding a conference in a pub despite being right royally shafted by their partners.
  • surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Sunday Times

    Half of Corbyn's shadow cabinet will back Cameron over air strikes in defiance of Jeremy's Corbyn's opposition

    The people will not back this one. Their CLPs will cut them out.
    More and more defections then and the ultimate distruction of the labour party sadly
    Not a single MP will defect. They know what happened to the SDP traitors.
    UKIP Conference next week - who knows
  • Jonathan said:

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    On 6% with a new leader bounce, the LDs are dead. Discuss.
    Actually I've come up with an idea for the afternoon thread tomorrow.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Freebie junkie MPs would agree.

    I think true Rugby fans deserve tickets ahead of troughing politicians myself.
    So under Corbyn our National Events would not be supported - but he prefers to have Hamas, the IRA and Putin as his friends - says it all really
    Do you know if Corbyn was actually invited ? I believe the tickets were snapped up months ago by rugby fans.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    15% of the Very Right support Labour ?
    Cancels out with the 19% of the very left who vote Tory, the interesting thing is as I said the centre-left is disunited, Labour have to compete with 6 other parties in that category, while the Tories have only to compete with UKIP for the centre-right vote.

    The other thing is that the SNP is very much on the left and peaks at 9% on the centre-left category and then vanishes, so much for tartan Tories in the SNP, and of course that the LD exist only in the confines of the centre-left and the centre with 1's, 2's or 0's in the other categories.
    That 18% UKIP on the centre must be the NOTA votes, and the 14% CON of the centre-left must be the blairites.
  • Morning thread contains an appalling 80s pop music reference, subtly done as usual
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267



    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride

    I wouldn't say it was troughing, but it's also not "representing your country" - the team is representing the country, not the guys sitting watching them. It's getting some reflected glory from a sporting event, and sports fans uninterested in politics tend in my experience to smile cynically about it.

    Politicians of all parties do it, but it's not especially noble or patriotic, and I'm not sure it really does them any favours.
  • Just back from Brighton :)

    I advertantly ran into a bunch of Saffers when I arrived by train at midday! Had no idea the Rugby was taking place at Falmer! Briefly watched the match on the big screen on the beach, roughly when Japan were 10-7 ahead.
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Privatised GNER couldn't hack it though.
    ISTR it was National Express that failed; they got the franchise after GNER's parent company got into financial trouble.

    There were some rather specialised reasons for NE's failure on the route: engineering works being a big one, the financial crisis and a decrease in passengers, and the fact they over-bid.

    Note that Virgin may face troubles when the IEPs are foisted on them.

    In contrast, the DOR-operated EC had a much easier time of it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Basically, you are saying that the average voter would like their representatives to be freeloaders.
    Rubbish
    You love freeloading MPs
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Tim_B said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg

    If 'the people' want to own the railways can they not buy stock in the operating companies?
    The operating companies don't own anything - neither tracks nor trains. The State gives them the right to operate for a fixed term. Once their franchises expire, operations can revert to the public sector just like that.
    What would you do about the ROSCOs and Open Access operators?
    Rolling Stock could be either purchased from the ROSCOs or hired until it is scrapped, with all new stock bought by the state operator. Open access operators can carry on as long as it is on a level playing field.
    AIUI the ROSCOs contracts are with the operating company, not the government. They will have the government by the short 'n curlies when it comes to the renegotiation.

    Open Access operators will want a level playing field from the government. They may not get it in a nationalised system.

    And here's another one: what about freight?
    One of the largest owners of the ROSCOs is RBS.

    Yeah, they're going to have a potential Corbyn government by the short and curlies.
  • Morning thread contains an appalling 80s pop music reference, subtly done as usual

    "Is there something I should know?"
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    Try comparing Tim Farron with Jo Grimond, after all they both started their leadership with tiny almost extinct parties.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited September 2015

    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:



    One way is to pick policies that are popular with a majoity such as renationalising the railways at zero cost as the franchises run out.

    I understood virtually all the franchises will be renewed before 2020 on long term contracts going well beyond the Governments next term and re-nationalising without compensation is against EU regulations. Also I remember the disaster of BR and can anyone even start to imagine what would happen when Corbyn's friends in the RMT and ASLEF take control
    Nevertheless it is a popular policy and we are talking about getting elected.
    It could be a manifesto commitment. I remember either BT or British Gas actually mentioned in their prospectus that they could be renationalised.

    To get long term franchises , the railway companies will have to pay a lot of money. Nationalising them would basically mean returning that money.
    And paying compensation as required by EU - if we are still in the EU of course
    As required by the EU? We worked that one out for ourselves in 1215. Taking over a private property without compensation is not 'nationalisation', its expropriation, and would not be allowed. If it got through the commons it wouldnt get through the lords, and if it did it would be caught up in the courts for longer than a parliament.
  • Morning thread contains an appalling 80s pop music reference, subtly done as usual

    "Is there something I should know?"
    If you look at my twitter feed you'll be able to spot it
  • Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg

    If 'the people' want to own the railways can they not buy stock in the operating companies?
    The operating companies don't own anything - neither tracks nor trains. The State gives them the right to operate for a fixed term. Once their franchises expire, operations can revert to the public sector just like that.
    What would you do about the ROSCOs and Open Access operators?
    Rolling Stock could be either purchased from the ROSCOs or hired until it is scrapped, with all new stock bought by the state operator. Open access operators can carry on as long as it is on a level playing field.
    AIUI the ROSCOs contracts are with the operating company, not the government. They will have the government by the short 'n curlies when it comes to the renegotiation.

    Open Access operators will want a level playing field from the government. They may not get it in a nationalised system.

    And here's another one: what about freight?
    One of the largest owners of the ROSCOs is RBS.

    Yeah, they're going to have a potential Corbyn government by the short and curlies.
    "one of", and yes, they may.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    JeremyCorbyn4PM ‏@JeremyCorbyn4PM 6m6 minutes ago
    Labour would bring all academies and free schools bck under local control

    Would be great for my job. But large multi academy trusts have a lot of power now, so would be no means an easy task. And what if data shows an improvement in standards for academies by that point?
    There already is evidence that academies on balance improve performance:

    https://fullfact.org/education/how_good_are_academies_compare_maintained_schools-42769

    But the big difference does not open up till 4-8 years after opening. at the moment as most academies and free schools have not been open that long, this has not reached the public conches yet, which is still being influenced by the efforts of the entrenched special interests, mostly trade unions representing teachers and particularly bureaucrats in education departments of Local government.

    With over half of secondary schools now academies or free schools and that number expanding rapidly. and parents in most cases licking want they get, I expect the Corbyn policy to go down in popularity, over the next 5 years.
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    And Virgin are going to delivery twice as much!
  • surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Freebie junkie MPs would agree.

    I think true Rugby fans deserve tickets ahead of troughing politicians myself.
    So under Corbyn our National Events would not be supported - but he prefers to have Hamas, the IRA and Putin as his friends - says it all really
    Do you know if Corbyn was actually invited ? I believe the tickets were snapped up months ago by rugby fans.
    It would have been a matter of courtesy to invite the leader of HM Opposition and irrespective a place would have been retained for him
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    Very interesting table.

    It means that Labour have a bigger opportunity to convert centre-left Tories to Labour (14% of centre-leftists are Tory) than Tories have of converting centre-right Labour to Tory (only 5% of centre-rightists are Labour).
  • surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Basically, you are saying that the average voter would like their representatives to be freeloaders.
    Rubbish
    You love freeloading MPs
    That's also rubbish -
  • Morning thread contains an appalling 80s pop music reference, subtly done as usual

    "Is there something I should know?"
    If you look at my twitter feed you'll be able to spot it
    I saw it just now. It's a hard life!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669



    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride

    I wouldn't say it was troughing, but it's also not "representing your country" - the team is representing the country, not the guys sitting watching them. It's getting some reflected glory from a sporting event, and sports fans uninterested in politics tend in my experience to smile cynically about it.

    Politicians of all parties do it, but it's not especially noble or patriotic, and I'm not sure it really does them any favours.
    I think the point at issue is that as leader of one of the two major political parties in the UK, certain expectations, duties and responsibilities come along with it. You simply cannot continue the idiosyncrasies, petty foibles and personal tilting at windmills that you practise as an anonymous back bench MP nobody ever heard of.
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    notme said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    And Virgin are going to delivery twice as much!
    Who would you prefer to run the East Coast Mainline?
    PRIVATE SECTOR
    24%
    PUBLIC SECTOR
    76%
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Another thing to chew on from the Opinium tables, only 7% of Labour voters disapprove of Corbyn, which is why only 3% of LAB 2015 voters go to the Tories and 1% go to the LD and why everything is so stable.
    The whole notion that Labour members are not representative of Labour voters is out of the window.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
    This whole rail privatization - if that's even what you can call it - is a mess.

    The only way to do it properly is to re-establish the 1948 set up - go back to LMS, LNER etc. Sell the companies the track, rolling stock, stations and infrastructure - every damned thing.

    How you get from here to there I haven't the first idea.
  • notme said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    And Virgin are going to delivery twice as much!
    Who would you prefer to run the East Coast Mainline?
    PRIVATE SECTOR
    24%
    PUBLIC SECTOR
    76%
    Not doubting the figures, but linky please.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2015
    Barnesian said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    Very interesting table.

    It means that Labour have a bigger opportunity to convert centre-left Tories to Labour (14% of centre-leftists are Tory) than Tories have of converting centre-right Labour to Tory (only 5% of centre-rightists are Labour).
    Nope, those are blairites, they are a small share of the centre-left and of the centre and overall about 2-3% of the overall electorate hence their very small influence but strategically crucial sector of the Blair-Cameron coalition, and are firmly on the Tory side, think of them as gay city bankers.
    Anyway there are a lot in those tables to chew on, and there are 2 other polls too, so goodnight.
  • Tim_B said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
    This whole rail privatization - if that's even what you can call it - is a mess.

    The only way to do it properly is to re-establish the 1948 set up - go back to LMS, LNER etc. Sell the companies the track, rolling stock, stations and infrastructure - every damned thing.

    How you get from here to there I haven't the first idea.
    I believe that the separation of track ownership and train services is mandated by EU regs
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
    East Coast don't run trains to Sunderland (GC) or Hull (FHT).
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited September 2015

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    Well why don't you start by writing a paragraph about Farron ..... No? ...... well how about a short sentence about him then?
  • Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
    East Coast don't run trains to Sunderland (GC) or Hull (FHT).
    No, but they weren't asked to under the franchises. That's where OA come ins: someone sees a gap in the market, and tries to get permission to fill it.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    notme said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    And Virgin are going to delivery twice as much!
    Who would you prefer to run the East Coast Mainline?
    PRIVATE SECTOR
    24%
    PUBLIC SECTOR
    76%
    Was the Supplementary Question:

    Do you know the slightest thing about how to run a railway?
    YES
    24%
    NOT A SCOOBY BUT I GAVE THE CUDDLY ANSWER TO THE EARLIER ONE
    76%
  • Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    Yup.

    I was so tense. They were behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.

    That was brilliant.
    What were the odds you could get on Japan before the match? There have obviously been long-odds winners before, but it would be neat if we could say "you could longer odds on Japan winning than on Japan losing by 100 points" or somesuch. Probably for 100 points you couldn't shorter odds, but I imagine you could for a pretty significant shellacking. Could anyone confirm?

    India's first cricket world cup win was at very long odds - I think the last time the Dutch played in a World Cup, they got the same odds as India did in 1983, to put it into perspective. The magnitude of that shock probably has to be ranked higher because they won the entire contest, rather than simply a pool match, and that victory has gone on to completely transform the finances and power structure of world cricket. (Kenya reaching the 2003 semifinals was probably "more unlikely" but ultimately less important.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    notme said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    And Virgin are going to delivery twice as much!
    Who would you prefer to run the East Coast Mainline?
    PRIVATE SECTOR
    24%
    PUBLIC SECTOR
    76%
    Not doubting the figures, but linky please.
    Most rail users would probably either take a nationalised or Virgin franchise.

    But not First group, anything but First !
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
    This whole rail privatization - if that's even what you can call it - is a mess.

    The only way to do it properly is to re-establish the 1948 set up - go back to LMS, LNER etc. Sell the companies the track, rolling stock, stations and infrastructure - every damned thing.

    How you get from here to there I haven't the first idea.
    I believe that the separation of track ownership and train services is mandated by EU regs
    I'm sure there would be many train companies who did or didn't own track who could contract with other track owners. Competition is essential.

    Also, if that EU reg is true, it rules out nationalization
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg

    If 'the people' want to own the railways can they not buy stock in the operating companies?
    The operating companies don't own anything - neither tracks nor trains. The State gives them the right to operate for a fixed term. Once their franchises expire, operations can revert to the public sector just like that.
    What would you do about the ROSCOs and Open Access operators?
    Rolling Stock could be either purchased from the ROSCOs or hired until it is scrapped, with all new stock bought by the state operator. Open access operators can carry on as long as it is on a level playing field.
    AIUI the ROSCOs contracts are with the operating company, not the government. They will have the government by the short 'n curlies when it comes to the renegotiation.

    Open Access operators will want a level playing field from the government. They may not get it in a nationalised system.

    And here's another one: what about freight?
    One of the largest owners of the ROSCOs is RBS.

    Yeah, they're going to have a potential Corbyn government by the short and curlies.
    UK rail freight franchise is operated by German State Railways (DB). Corbyn will upset Mrs Merkel ;)

  • surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Freebie junkie MPs would agree.

    I think true Rugby fans deserve tickets ahead of troughing politicians myself.
    So under Corbyn our National Events would not be supported - but he prefers to have Hamas, the IRA and Putin as his friends - says it all really
    Do you know if Corbyn was actually invited ? I believe the tickets were snapped up months ago by rugby fans.
    It would have been a matter of courtesy to invite the leader of HM Opposition and irrespective a place would have been retained for him
    Sadly he's too busy undermining our national events by cunningly sorting out his constituent's problems in a fiendish Putin/Hezbollah plot. If we lose this Rugby World Cup we'll know who's commie loving antics to blame.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    Yup.

    I was so tense. They were behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.

    That was brilliant.
    What were the odds you could get on Japan before the match? There have obviously been long-odds winners before, but it would be neat if we could say "you could longer odds on Japan winning than on Japan losing by 100 points" or somesuch. Probably for 100 points you couldn't shorter odds, but I imagine you could for a pretty significant shellacking. Could anyone confirm?

    India's first cricket world cup win was at very long odds - I think the last time the Dutch played in a World Cup, they got the same odds as India did in 1983, to put it into perspective. The magnitude of that shock probably has to be ranked higher because they won the entire contest, rather than simply a pool match, and that victory has gone on to completely transform the finances and power structure of world cricket. (Kenya reaching the 2003 semifinals was probably "more unlikely" but ultimately less important.)
    Bangladesh beating England was probably likely. Second time in a row.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start.

    I've spent three days trying and nothing.
    Well why don't you start by writing a paragraph about Farron ..... No? ...... well how about a short sentence about him then?
    Tim Farron is 45. Does that help?
  • Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    Yup.

    I was so tense. They were behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.

    That was brilliant.
    What were the odds you could get on Japan before the match? There have obviously been long-odds winners before, but it would be neat if we could say "you could longer odds on Japan winning than on Japan losing by 100 points" or somesuch. Probably for 100 points you couldn't shorter odds, but I imagine you could for a pretty significant shellacking. Could anyone confirm?

    India's first cricket world cup win was at very long odds - I think the last time the Dutch played in a World Cup, they got the same odds as India did in 1983, to put it into perspective. The magnitude of that shock probably has to be ranked higher because they won the entire contest, rather than simply a pool match, and that victory has gone on to completely transform the finances and power structure of world cricket. (Kenya reaching the 2003 semifinals was probably "more unlikely" but ultimately less important.)
    Paddy Power had them at 100/1 to win and the handicap market was 43 points in the Saffers favour
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    15% of the Very Right support Labour ?
    A lot of people have a very idiosyncratic idea of what is left and what is right wing.A girlfriend of mine thought the defining issue was that socialists were opposed to human rights.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    You have a very narrow view - he could and should have done both
    Not really, perhaps he could, perhaps he couldn't, I'm just saying in the hands of a good PR this would be a nice little wrong footing of his opponents.
    The average voter would expect the leader of the opposition to attend the opening of a World Event - are you saying he would have avoided the Olympics - just bad diary management but also a lack of respect
    Freebie junkie MPs would agree.

    I think true Rugby fans deserve tickets ahead of troughing politicians myself.
    So under Corbyn our National Events would not be supported - but he prefers to have Hamas, the IRA and Putin as his friends - says it all really
    Do you know if Corbyn was actually invited ? I believe the tickets were snapped up months ago by rugby fans.
    It would have been a matter of courtesy to invite the leader of HM Opposition and irrespective a place would have been retained for him
    Was he actually invited and did he decline to go ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    15% of the Very Right support Labour ?
    A lot of people have a very idiosyncratic idea of what is left and what is right wing.A girlfriend of mine thought the defining issue was that socialists were opposed to human rights.
    Ex-girlfriend ?
  • perdix said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg

    If 'the people' want to own the railways can they not buy stock in the operating companies?
    The operating companies don't own anything - neither tracks nor trains. The State gives them the right to operate for a fixed term. Once their franchises expire, operations can revert to the public sector just like that.
    What would you do about the ROSCOs and Open Access operators?
    Rolling Stock could be either purchased from the ROSCOs or hired until it is scrapped, with all new stock bought by the state operator. Open access operators can carry on as long as it is on a level playing field.
    AIUI the ROSCOs contracts are with the operating company, not the government. They will have the government by the short 'n curlies when it comes to the renegotiation.

    Open Access operators will want a level playing field from the government. They may not get it in a nationalised system.

    And here's another one: what about freight?
    One of the largest owners of the ROSCOs is RBS.

    Yeah, they're going to have a potential Corbyn government by the short and curlies.
    UK rail freight franchise is operated by German State Railways (DB). Corbyn will upset Mrs Merkel ;)

    Greater Anglia is run by the Dutch equivalent (NS). Which at least makes the Dutch Flyer service reasonably integrated.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    perdix said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg

    If 'the people' want to own the railways can they not buy stock in the operating companies?
    The operating companies don't own anything - neither tracks nor trains. The State gives them the right to operate for a fixed term. Once their franchises expire, operations can revert to the public sector just like that.
    What would you do about the ROSCOs and Open Access operators?
    Rolling Stock could be either purchased from the ROSCOs or hired until it is scrapped, with all new stock bought by the state operator. Open access operators can carry on as long as it is on a level playing field.
    AIUI the ROSCOs contracts are with the operating company, not the government. They will have the government by the short 'n curlies when it comes to the renegotiation.

    Open Access operators will want a level playing field from the government. They may not get it in a nationalised system.

    And here's another one: what about freight?
    One of the largest owners of the ROSCOs is RBS.

    Yeah, they're going to have a potential Corbyn government by the short and curlies.
    UK rail freight franchise is operated by German State Railways (DB). Corbyn will upset Mrs Merkel ;)

    So it is already nationalised. Is it efficiently run?
  • Tim_B said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
    This whole rail privatization - if that's even what you can call it - is a mess.

    The only way to do it properly is to re-establish the 1948 set up - go back to LMS, LNER etc. Sell the companies the track, rolling stock, stations and infrastructure - every damned thing.

    How you get from here to there I haven't the first idea.
    I believe that the separation of track ownership and train services is mandated by EU regs
    Track is owned by Network Rail, which is effectively Nationalised
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    Yup.

    I was so tense. They were behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.

    That was brilliant.
    What were the odds you could get on Japan before the match? There have obviously been long-odds winners before, but it would be neat if we could say "you could longer odds on Japan winning than on Japan losing by 100 points" or somesuch. Probably for 100 points you couldn't shorter odds, but I imagine you could for a pretty significant shellacking. Could anyone confirm?

    India's first cricket world cup win was at very long odds - I think the last time the Dutch played in a World Cup, they got the same odds as India did in 1983, to put it into perspective. The magnitude of that shock probably has to be ranked higher because they won the entire contest, rather than simply a pool match, and that victory has gone on to completely transform the finances and power structure of world cricket. (Kenya reaching the 2003 semifinals was probably "more unlikely" but ultimately less important.)
    Paddy Power had them at 100/1 to win and the handicap market was 43 points in the Saffers favour
    There was a big Rugby League upset a few years back:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-league/24565586

    England: Sam Tomkins (Wigan), Hall (Leeds), Ablett (Leeds), Cudjoe (Huddersfield), Briscoe (Hull FC); Chase (Castleford), Sinfield (capt) (Leeds); Graham (Canterbury Bulldogs), McIlorum (Wigan), Mossop (Wigan), Hock (Widnes), Farrell (Wigan), Sam Burgess (South Sydney Rabbitohs) !
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    They are extinct.

    They have an evangelical Xtian as leader. Which might be nice if all the Xtians weren't died in the wool Tories.

    They have Alistair Carmichael making headline news for being a liar and charlatan.

    Not one single Labour MP has approached them to defect - otherwise you wouldn't have Farron and Cable all over whatever news media will listen to their irrelevance, proclaiming how all these Labour MPs are talking to them.

    The Liberals are a Dead Parrot.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I make the average Labour poll rating equal to 31. Andy JS thought it would be 27.
  • If you want to go from Wolverhampton to Birmingham International (wot serves the airport and NEC), you can do so on trains operated by FOUR companies:

    Arriva Trains Wales
    Cross Country
    London Midland
    Virgin Trains
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Bloody hell. Only just seen that Japan beat the Saffars in the RWC. That has to be about the greatest shock in the history of sport, doesn't it?

    Yup.

    I was so tense. They were behind 32-29 in added on time, twice they were awarded penalties, rather than go for the tie they went for the victory.

    That was brilliant.
    What were the odds you could get on Japan before the match? There have obviously been long-odds winners before, but it would be neat if we could say "you could longer odds on Japan winning than on Japan losing by 100 points" or somesuch. Probably for 100 points you couldn't shorter odds, but I imagine you could for a pretty significant shellacking. Could anyone confirm?

    India's first cricket world cup win was at very long odds - I think the last time the Dutch played in a World Cup, they got the same odds as India did in 1983, to put it into perspective. The magnitude of that shock probably has to be ranked higher because they won the entire contest, rather than simply a pool match, and that victory has gone on to completely transform the finances and power structure of world cricket. (Kenya reaching the 2003 semifinals was probably "more unlikely" but ultimately less important.)
    On SpreadEx Japan were 500/1 against being a Group Winner.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Alistair said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg


    How's he going to halve the number of passengers overnight?

    Back to when the railways were last nationalised.

    The East Coast Main Line operated a nationalised service until a few months ago. Has anything improved since Virgin took over?
    Many TOCs return a premium to the taxpayer, rather than requiring a grant. See page 4 of:
    http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/18842/rail-finance-statistical-release-2014-15.pdf
    And the Nationalised East Coast service was the second highest return to the taxpayer on a passenger kilometer basis.
    Yes, meaning they were beaten by a privatised company, and were far from alone in returning money to the taxpayer.

    The EC route is also rather unusual, as it's one of the few routes that has genuine competition with two OA operators: Grand Central and someone else.
    Hull Trains.
    Thanks.
    London Euston to Birmingham New Street is served by London Midland and Virgin Trains. Cross Country have a lot of overlap with other operators.
    Yes, but that's not the same as Open Access operators.
    This whole rail privatization - if that's even what you can call it - is a mess.

    The only way to do it properly is to re-establish the 1948 set up - go back to LMS, LNER etc. Sell the companies the track, rolling stock, stations and infrastructure - every damned thing.

    How you get from here to there I haven't the first idea.
    I believe that the separation of track ownership and train services is mandated by EU regs
    Track is owned by Network Rail, which is effectively Nationalised
    Courtesy of one Stephen Byers if I recall, effectively forcing Railtrack into bankruptcy.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    15% of the Very Right support Labour ?
    A lot of people have a very idiosyncratic idea of what is left and what is right wing.A girlfriend of mine thought the defining issue was that socialists were opposed to human rights.
    Is she single right now? Because I've got one thing in common with her already...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    perdix said:

    Dair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg

    If 'the people' want to own the railways can they not buy stock in the operating companies?
    The operating companies don't own anything - neither tracks nor trains. The State gives them the right to operate for a fixed term. Once their franchises expire, operations can revert to the public sector just like that.
    What would you do about the ROSCOs and Open Access operators?
    Rolling Stock could be either purchased from the ROSCOs or hired until it is scrapped, with all new stock bought by the state operator. Open access operators can carry on as long as it is on a level playing field.
    AIUI the ROSCOs contracts are with the operating company, not the government. They will have the government by the short 'n curlies when it comes to the renegotiation.

    Open Access operators will want a level playing field from the government. They may not get it in a nationalised system.

    And here's another one: what about freight?
    One of the largest owners of the ROSCOs is RBS.

    Yeah, they're going to have a potential Corbyn government by the short and curlies.
    UK rail freight franchise is operated by German State Railways (DB). Corbyn will upset Mrs Merkel ;)

    Greater Anglia is run by the Dutch equivalent (NS). Which at least makes the Dutch Flyer service reasonably integrated.
    So it is nationalised !
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    15% of the Very Right support Labour ?
    A lot of people have a very idiosyncratic idea of what is left and what is right wing.A girlfriend of mine thought the defining issue was that socialists were opposed to human rights.
    Your Girlfriend was very perceptive, Perhaps she had read 'Capitalism and Freedom', by Milton Friedman, or perhaps she was just observing what actually happens when Socialists get in to power e.g. USSR, and Veniswala, rather than the well meant but altimetry dishonest reassurances, they give before the reality's of the states they crate become evident.
  • Dair said:

    The thing that strikes me from those polls is that the LibDems are still doing crap.

    Perhaps they wont get a recovery despite not being in office.

    They are extinct.

    They have an evangelical Xtian as leader. Which might be nice if all the Xtians weren't died in the wool Tories.

    They have Alistair Carmichael making headline news for being a liar and charlatan.

    Not one single Labour MP has approached them to defect - otherwise you wouldn't have Farron and Cable all over whatever news media will listen to their irrelevance, proclaiming how all these Labour MPs are talking to them.

    The Liberals are a Dead Parrot.
    Are you Maggie in disguise? :)

    Now, that brings me to the Liberal Party. I gather that during the last few days there have been some ill-natured jokes about their new symbol, a bird of some kind, adopted by the Liberal Democrats at Blackpool. Politics is a serious business, and one should not lower the tone unduly. So I will say only this of the Liberal Democrat symbol and of the party it symbolises. This is an ex-parrot. It is not merely stunned. It has ceased to be, expired and gone to meet its maker. It is a parrot no more. It has rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. This is a late parrot. And now for something completely different.

    - M. H. Thatcher speech to Conservative Party Conference (12 October 1990)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited September 2015
    So both Comres and Yougov have Labour on around the 30% mark it won at the election while the Tories voteshare has increased. The 0.5% swing to the Tories with yougov would see the Conservatives win back Chester and Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Wirral West and gain Halifax from Labour at the next election. The 2.5% swing to the Tories with comres would see the Tories win all those seats plus another 14 seats including every seat Ed Miliband gained in 2015 along with seats like Bridgend, Barrow and Furness and Hampstead and Kilburn
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
  • BigRich said:

    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    Opinum has a very interesting table, breaking up support by political orientation:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_09_2015_tables_0.pdf

    Very Left ( percentage of sample 3.5%): LAB 55, CON 19, GRN 10, UKIP 6, SNP 5, LD 1
    Left (15%): ------------------------------------------LAB 72, CON 9, SNP 8, GRN 5, UKIP 3, LD 2
    Centre Left (19.5%):------------------------------LAB 47, LD 15, CON 14, SNP 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
    Centre (31.3%): ----------------------------------CON 35, LAB 28, UKIP 18, LD 8, SNP 6, GRN 4
    Centre-Right ( 19.7%):---------------------------CON 73, UKIP 15, LAB 5, LD 3, GRN 2, SNP 1
    Right (8.4%):---------------------------------------CON 69, UKIP 25, LAB 4, LD 1, others 0
    Very Right (2.6%):---------------------------------CON 53, UKIP 25, LAB 15, BNP 8, others 0

    There are more people on the Left (38%) than on the Right (30.7%) or the Centre (31.3%), however the Tories are ahead because the Centre-Right is unified behind them while the Centre-Left is not unified behind Labour.

    15% of the Very Right support Labour ?
    A lot of people have a very idiosyncratic idea of what is left and what is right wing.A girlfriend of mine thought the defining issue was that socialists were opposed to human rights.
    Your Girlfriend was very perceptive, Perhaps she had read 'Capitalism and Freedom', by Milton Friedman, or perhaps she was just observing what actually happens when Socialists get in to power e.g. USSR, and Veniswala, rather than the well meant but altimetry dishonest reassurances, they give before the reality's of the states they crate become evident.
    The choice facing the nation is between two totally different ways of life. And what a prize we have to fight for: no less than the chance to banish from our land the dark, divisive clouds of Marxist socialism and bring together men and women from all walks of life who share a belief in freedom.

    - M. H. Thatcher, 13th May 1983.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Meeting your constituents ? Tories say: What is that ?
    On what evidence do you say that. Our two adjacent constituencies in North Wales both have conservative MP's who hold regular constituency meetings and are in the local press all the time. But that's why they were both elected with increased majorities this year
    Do they prioritise Rugby freebies over constituents?
    You are so out of order
    Actually it is very pertinent given the argument over singing a homage to an unelected head of state.

    Neither Cameron nor Corbyn is our head of state.

    Attending events like the Olympics or RWC is simply freeloading. If a representation of the country should attend, the only choice is the head of state.

    And after her sour faced, clear unhappiness at being dragged to the Olympics ceremony, it;s no wonder that no-one wants the Queen at their events.

    But the PM and LoTO have no place at the event.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Meeting your constituents ? Tories say: What is that ?
    On what evidence do you say that. Our two adjacent constituencies in North Wales both have conservative MP's who hold regular constituency meetings and are in the local press all the time. But that's why they were both elected with increased majorities this year
    Do they prioritise Rugby freebies over constituents?
    You are so out of order
    Actually it is very pertinent given the argument over singing a homage to an unelected head of state.

    Neither Cameron nor Corbyn is our head of state.

    Attending events like the Olympics or RWC is simply freeloading. If a representation of the country should attend, the only choice is the head of state.

    And after her sour faced, clear unhappiness at being dragged to the Olympics ceremony, it;s no wonder that no-one wants the Queen at their events.

    But the PM and LoTO have no place at the event.
    Isn't it up to the organizers who they want to invite?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Meeting your constituents ? Tories say: What is that ?
    On what evidence do you say that. Our two adjacent constituencies in North Wales both have conservative MP's who hold regular constituency meetings and are in the local press all the time. But that's why they were both elected with increased majorities this year
    Do they prioritise Rugby freebies over constituents?
    You are so out of order
    Actually it is very pertinent given the argument over singing a homage to an unelected head of state.

    Neither Cameron nor Corbyn is our head of state.

    Attending events like the Olympics or RWC is simply freeloading. If a representation of the country should attend, the only choice is the head of state.

    And after her sour faced, clear unhappiness at being dragged to the Olympics ceremony, it;s no wonder that no-one wants the Queen at their events.

    But the PM and LoTO have no place at the event.
    What about if they genuinely enjoy them - like Major at the cricket ?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start. I've spent three days trying and nothing.

    You might like to start by noting that the Lib Dem Conference in Bournemouth is their largest ever.

    Also since the general election, they have held eleven seats in council elections, and gained a further eleven.

    But since it is much less effort just to mock, you might prefer to go along with the more mindless members of the media.
  • Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Meeting your constituents ? Tories say: What is that ?
    On what evidence do you say that. Our two adjacent constituencies in North Wales both have conservative MP's who hold regular constituency meetings and are in the local press all the time. But that's why they were both elected with increased majorities this year
    Do they prioritise Rugby freebies over constituents?
    You are so out of order
    Actually it is very pertinent given the argument over singing a homage to an unelected head of state.

    Neither Cameron nor Corbyn is our head of state.

    Attending events like the Olympics or RWC is simply freeloading. If a representation of the country should attend, the only choice is the head of state.

    And after her sour faced, clear unhappiness at being dragged to the Olympics ceremony, it;s no wonder that no-one wants the Queen at their events.
    But the PM and LoTO have no place at the event.
    Sour faced? She parachuted in from a helicopter escorted by James Bond!
    Your miserable effort is not even a nice try.

    The political leaders were invited. Suck it up you sad pathetic fart of a not so human being.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Tim_B said:

    Corbyn's first policy

    The people's renationalised railways

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPStQ9HXAAAjyGs.jpg

    If 'the people' want to own the railways can they not buy stock in the operating companies?
    the idea is that it is democratically controlled on a one person, one vote basis, not a one pound, one vote basis.
  • Sunday Times: Intelligence chiefs revealed that Corbyn would receive only “restricted access” to intelligence through the police and security services
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Renationalising the railways probably same sort of score as rent controls.

    It's clear that the Tories need to keep the fire on security for 2020 from the looks of this. Some of the Corbynomics isn't so unpopular.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PClipp said:

    I've tried writing a thread on the Lib Dems (and their conference) not sure where to start. I've spent three days trying and nothing.

    You might like to start by noting that the Lib Dem Conference in Bournemouth is their largest ever.

    Also since the general election, they have held eleven seats in council elections, and gained a further eleven.

    But since it is much less effort just to mock, you might prefer to go along with the more mindless members of the media.
    Do they have more councillors now than in 2010 ?
  • HYUFD said:

    So both Comres and Yougov have Labour on around the 30% mark it won at the election while the Tories voteshare has increased. The 0.5% swing to the Tories with yougov would see the Conservatives win back Chester and Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Wirral West and gain Halifax from Labour at the next election. The 2.5% swing to the Tories with comres would see the Tories win all those seats plus another 14 seats including every seat Ed Miliband gained in 2015 along with seats like Bridgend, Barrow and Furness and Hampstead and Kilburn
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

    To quote the nice lady from the holiday booking advert, 'Shhhh... Keep it quiet.'
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Yes, I wonder why they are attacking him personally and his past foreign policy views (leaving NATO will never be labour policy for the foreseeable future) rather than the actual policies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    Anyone else find it weird that despite: the US Presidential Primaries being a constant media focus; despite more money being spent already than we spent on our entire election; and despite the US media's love of the polling horserace even more than ours; no-one bothers to snap poll the primary debates? In fact it's been days since the CNN debate and we haven't had any national primary polling at all. How does that fit with the rest of the over the top focus on the primaries?

    There was only one snap poll done for the Romeny Obama debate where Obama 'lost'. It was entirely of old, rich, white, southeren voters. Literally 0 ethnic minorities or anyone on minimum wage. It was astounding demographics.
    Actually a GOP NH poll today had Fiorina ahead of Trump and Gravis post debate had Fiorina and Trump tied nationally
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    surbiton said:

    Adam White ‏@adamjoewhite 12h12 hours ago
    So Corbyn missed an all expenses paid jolly to the rugby in order to attend his constituency advice surgery? What will this monster do next?

    He wants to be Prime Minister - that means showing respect to many including people who don't share his views. He is only in his comfort zone when he is with people who support him
    A constituency advice surgery is not just for supporters its for constituents who require advice (even Tories)

    Jollies are for normal politicians who love troughing and taking voters for a ride IMO.
    That is just absurd - representing your country at a World Event is not troughing and taking voters for a ride
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-criticised-jeremy-corbyn-not-6478713#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    i think he was right to prioritse this.
    Ha - nice little coup for Corbyn; I hope those who publicly slammed him apologise.
    Meeting your constituents ? Tories say: What is that ?
    On what evidence do you say that. Our two adjacent constituencies in North Wales both have conservative MP's who hold regular constituency meetings and are in the local press all the time. But that's why they were both elected with increased majorities this year
    Do they prioritise Rugby freebies over constituents?
    You are so out of order
    Actually it is very pertinent given the argument over singing a homage to an unelected head of state.

    Neither Cameron nor Corbyn is our head of state.

    Attending events like the Olympics or RWC is simply freeloading. If a representation of the country should attend, the only choice is the head of state.

    And after her sour faced, clear unhappiness at being dragged to the Olympics ceremony, it;s no wonder that no-one wants the Queen at their events.

    But the PM and LoTO have no place at the event.
    What about if they genuinely enjoy them - like Major at the cricket ?
    Cameron likes cricket too. He is fairly knowledgeable about the game. I am sure he likes Rugby. You couldn't be a public school type if you didn't.

    He supports "association football" so much that he forgets which team he supports. Mind you having Karren Brady in front of you, he could have been distracted !

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited September 2015

    First new leader to have such a small bounce in polling?

    Blair had no bounce.
    Yes he did, the first poll from Gallup after Blair was elected leader on 21st July 1994 had Labour on 56.5%, the previous Gallup had Labour on 51%

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
  • HYUFD said:

    So both Comres and Yougov have Labour on around the 30% mark it won at the election while the Tories voteshare has increased. The 0.5% swing to the Tories with yougov would see the Conservatives win back Chester and Ealing Central and Acton, Brentford and Isleworth, Wirral West and gain Halifax from Labour at the next election. The 2.5% swing to the Tories with comres would see the Tories win all those seats plus another 14 seats including every seat Ed Miliband gained in 2015 along with seats like Bridgend, Barrow and Furness and Hampstead and Kilburn
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

    To quote the nice lady from the holiday booking advert, 'Shhhh... Keep it quiet.'
    Actually:

    "Keep that to yourself!"

    She's Swedish BTW. Camilla Arfwedson.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szRIkRbrIfQ
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