Am I reading the ComRes Scottish Subsample correctly?
Conservatives 18% Labour 16 %
Yes its a very small subsample and well within the MoE, But is the first pole to show that that I can remember in years if not decades! perhaps other PBs do remember other pols that showed this? Apart form the novelty factor it does say something that they are now close enough for this to be possible.
Anybody seen any odds being quoted for conservatives to be second largest party in Holroyd after next Mays election?
There have actually been a few subsamples showing SCons ahead of SLab. If you want a punt, you can get 3/1 with Lads on SCons most seats without SNP, pretty mean imo.
Although today's poll has Scottish Labour on 28% up from 24% at the election, mainly from the SNP who are down to 44%. The Scottish Tories are up from 14% to 21% but that is mainly at the expense of the LDs who are down to 2% from 7%, not Labour
Worth pointing out that even the YouGov subsample would - at most - switch two SNP seats back to Labour.
But, it would switch 3 SNP Seats to the Conservatives!
LOL, and yes with all the limitations of projections of Uniform national swing, and the new boundaries anyway. but fun to note anyway.
Indeed it is amusing that the biggest losers from Corbyn's election seem to be the SNP and not the Tories. The SNP may still be ahead but are now almost entirely dependent on indyref Yes voters and have lost any No voters who backed them in May
@michaelsavage: Shadow cabinet minister goes on TV to disagree with leader on: utilities, BoE, Syria, Iraq apology. Oh, & takes apart shad chancellor #bbcsp
Dair I paid in every week for fifty years into what I was told would be my pension fund..that was no lie.... what the recipient did with the money... various governments... has no bearing at all on the basic principle..
You were lied to and gullible.
Now you want others to subsidise your mistake.
The moral hazard was yours, like any con, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. But an entire generation of destructive individuals decided to ignore reality and believe the completely unbelievable.
I wondered before, but now I see, you're an ageist. Presumably you think the Boomers should be ejected from the airlock once they retire. All the more reason for Scotland to become independent, we'll have fewer people spewing bile on here.
There's nothing ageist in identifying how the Boomers have prospered from stupidity and then pulled the ladder up behind them. They expect state handouts they do not need, while those who will need them - Gen Y and Millennials who have absolutely NO viable pension savings vehicle - will retire into abject poverty as the state, burdened by trillions of pounds of debt from past generations pension obligations, will be unable to offer any help..
All the more reason for Scotland to become independent, we'll have fewer people spewing bile on here.
How will that work then?
You'll be living in Utopia, hence will be full of sweetness and light .
In truth, while I hate this increasing level of inter-generational divisiveness, I do think Scotland could and should be independent. The Union means nothing to me. Scotland is to the UK as the UK is to Europe; we'd all be better doing our own thing.
One Labour MSP said: “If anyone says this is good news because we can outflank the SNP on the left, then they’re not thinking straight.
“The SNP doesn’t really present a left-wing politics, it just says to people ‘you’re compassionate and wonderful’ and people lap it up.
“There isn’t a majority out there for paying more tax and hiking up benefits. If there was, then the SNP would be doing those things.
“There’s a majority out there that wants to feel good about themselves and to get on in life and the SNP absolutely talks to them.
“The rhetoric is left wing but the politics are centre ground. The SNP is New Labour with nationalism added and there’s no way an Old Labour offer is going to counter it. I despair at anyone who thinks that’s going to happen.
“We’re completely screwed if we’re pinning our hopes on winning on an out of date agenda.”
I think there's some truth in it, but the thing is a lot of the people who make that argument contradict themselves. These are often the same people who say it's self-evident that Miliband was too left-wing because he lost in England to a party to his right, yet they don't apply the same logic to Scotland where they lost to a party which was (rhetorically at least) positioned to Labour's left.
Their leader did this which is commonsense in action
There has been talk, south of the Border, of new members – Corbynistas – getting together to remove as candidates MPs who are seen as New Labour. There can be no such purge in Scotland.
Dugdale has ensured that nobody who joined the party after early July will have a say in the selection of candidates for next year’s Holyrood election.
The only problem being that the final say over selection is not in Dugdales gift - it belongs to Jeremy Corbyn who cannot be over-ruled by a branch manager.
@michaelsavage: Shadow cabinet minister goes on TV to disagree with leader on: utilities, BoE, Syria, Iraq apology. Oh, & takes apart shad chancellor #bbcsp
Lord Falconer jumped on the Corbyn band waggon and found no axles to tie the wheels together.
Chancellor Merkel today seems to be promising nothing less than absolution for Germany's sins of the Holocaust. The problem is, of course, that Muslims are quite different from Jews.
German media outlets have suppressed the stories of rampant rape and child abuse among the migrants housed in government-run accommodations.
The editor-in-chief defended her decision to suppress the rape story on public TV broadcaster ZDF: "We don't want to inflame the situation and spread the bad mood. [The migrants] don't deserve it." That the poor rape victim deserved justice was apparently of no concern to the broadcaster.
Germany under Chancellor Merkel wants to play "Miss Congeniality" at the global scale, and wants Europe to pick up the tab.
Dair I paid in every week for fifty years into what I was told would be my pension fund..that was no lie.... what the recipient did with the money... various governments... has no bearing at all on the basic principle..
You were lied to and gullible.
Now you want others to subsidise your mistake.
The moral hazard was yours, like any con, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. But an entire generation of destructive individuals decided to ignore reality and believe the completely unbelievable.
I wondered before, but now I see, you're an ageist. Presumably you think the Boomers should be ejected from the airlock once they retire. All the more reason for Scotland to become independent, we'll have fewer people spewing bile on here.
There's nothing ageist in identifying how the Boomers have prospered from stupidity and then pulled the ladder up behind them. They expect state handouts they do not need, while those who will need them - Gen Y and Millennials who have absolutely NO viable pension savings vehicle - will retire into abject poverty as the state, burdened by trillions of pounds of debt from past generations pension obligations, will be unable to offer any help..
I withdraw my remark (how pompous of me!). I don't think our positions differ as much as I thought. Please accept my apologies; as I remarked in my previous post, setting generations against each other is something I find distressing.
I do think we need to stop benefits to wealthy pensioners. Means testing has a bad name, but it's now necessary. While I've retired, I'm fourteen years off a state pension, and given I'm still a higher rate tax payer, I don't see that I'd want or need any of the universal benefits.
Dair I paid in every week for fifty years into what I was told would be my pension fund..that was no lie.... what the recipient did with the money... various governments... has no bearing at all on the basic principle..
You were lied to and gullible.
Now you want others to subsidise your mistake.
The moral hazard was yours, like any con, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. But an entire generation of destructive individuals decided to ignore reality and believe the completely unbelievable.
All the more reason for Scotland to become independent.
Interesting quandry in Scotland tho.....older population with lower life expectancy (I blame the Scottish English NHS......)
I find Corbyn's stated views utterly repugnant, and it's quite staggering how much people are trying to defend him (especially whilst still throwing out the old canard about Bulliingdon, etc).
Canard? So Dave, Boris & George weren't members of the Bullingdon then?
Shocking how the reputations of these poor chaps have been so traduced. No wonder they wanted that mocked up photo of them in full Bullingdon rig suppressed.
Being in the bullingdon is pretty irrelevant because they don't claim to be the same people as when they smashed restaurants when drunk or whatever. Corbyn's supporters make a big deal of him thinking the same things for 30 years. So his views back then are relevant as unless he confirms otherwise we've been programmed to assume he still means it. It's not difficult to grasp and seems fair given the moralising about firmness of principle that different standards apply because by claiming to be more principled they invite higher standards.
Canard means something that is false or untrue. Trying to frame a fact as a canard is a canard in itself.
I apologise then, I thought it meant just something negative
I know the photographer who took the Cameron/ Osborne photo and the only reason it was withdrawn after its initial publication was for breach of copywrite. You can see umpteen photos in pubs in Oxford of similar clubs, all posed the same way. It's a tradition dating back to the early days of photography. I can point you to a famous photo of captured confederate prisoners after Gettysburg which is posed in exactly the same way. Despite all the furore over 'smashed restaurants' you only find one example quoted over and over in the press of an exploit by 'alleged' Bullingdon members.
Your excuses are not working , we all know they are rich oiks who like to rub people's noses in their wealth and privilege.
PS: in pedant mode it is copyright
In pedant mode it is a crap mini pad keyboard. In fact your infirm prejudices blind you to the truth. How sad you are that you need this fantasy to keep you happy.
One Labour MSP said: “If anyone says this is good news because we can outflank the SNP on the left, then they’re not thinking straight.
“The SNP doesn’t really present a left-wing politics, it just says to people ‘you’re compassionate and wonderful’ and people lap it up.
“There isn’t a majority out there for paying more tax and hiking up benefits. If there was, then the SNP would be doing those things.
“There’s a majority out there that wants to feel good about themselves and to get on in life and the SNP absolutely talks to them.
“The rhetoric is left wing but the politics are centre ground. The SNP is New Labour with nationalism added and there’s no way an Old Labour offer is going to counter it. I despair at anyone who thinks that’s going to happen.
“We’re completely screwed if we’re pinning our hopes on winning on an out of date agenda.”
It's reassuring that the SLAB people seem to at least kept some grip on the realities of the situation. The worst of all worlds would be if they believed Corbyn was their saviour.
I think McColm's article understates the extent of SLAB's problems. With Frank "Pie Man" McAveety back in control of Glasgow, Corbyn's man on the ground in Scotland - Neil Findlay - in no mans land, while Kezia sits in Edinburgh SLAB sending out tweets. I know many SNP supporters at times tire of the party, but with no viable alternatives it doesn't take long to come back to the default option !!
My apologies to those with whom I was in discussion earlier. My sudden departure from the site was caused by an ill-timed summons to luncheon, a summons I could not ignore. Now, I have at least a whole solid hour to myself and I intend to spend it gaming - Mr. Jessop will understand even if no one else does.
Dair.. I was neither gullible then and am not greedy now The payment was not an option ..it was deducted from your paycheck..and if the same money had been invested by myself then the return would have been much greater than the measly 7 k I get now..What a smart arse you are and apparent;ly you have no idea how the system works.. no one believed the money was set aside... of course it was used by the gov of the day
I find Corbyn's stated views utterly repugnant, and it's quite staggering how much people are trying to defend him (especially whilst still throwing out the old canard about Bulliingdon, etc).
Canard? So Dave, Boris & George weren't members of the Bullingdon then?
Shocking how the reputations of these poor chaps have been so traduced. No wonder they wanted that mocked up photo of them in full Bullingdon rig suppressed.
Canard means something that is false or untrue. Trying to frame a fact as a canard is a canard in itself.
I apologise then, I thought it meant just something negative
It can also be an airplane
Strictly speaking, a leading pair of winglets on an aeroplane. But can be used for an aeroplane using such a system.
Dair I paid in every week for fifty years into what I was told would be my pension fund..that was no lie.... what the recipient did with the money... various governments... has no bearing at all on the basic principle..
You were lied to and gullible.
Now you want others to subsidise your mistake.
The moral hazard was yours, like any con, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. But an entire generation of destructive individuals decided to ignore reality and believe the completely unbelievable.
I wondered before, but now I see, you're an ageist. Presumably you think the Boomers should be ejected from the airlock once they retire. All the more reason for Scotland to become independent, we'll have fewer people spewing bile on here.
I find Corbyn's stated views utterly repugnant, and it's quite staggering how much people are trying to defend him (especially whilst still throwing out the old canard about Bulliingdon, etc).
Canard? So Dave, Boris & George weren't members of the Bullingdon then?
.
But if past statements are to be discounted, then it is fair to discount past actions like being in the bullingdon as well, and yet people try to act as though the past should be ignored only for one.
Canard means something that is false or untrue. Trying to frame a fact as a canard is a canard in itself.
I apologise then, I thought it meant just something negative
Nonetheless it is the clearest picture we have of the Scottish picture, not just Scotland's votes as a proportion of those across the UK. The SNP are on 44% in today's yougov, almost exactly the same as the Yes total in indyref, so it seems that they are once again the party of the diehard nationalists while Labour is up to 28% which suggests No voting socialists have returned to the fold. The Tories are also up to 21% although that seems to have mainly come from the LDs who have collapsed to 2%.
Of course we will need to see some more polls but it does seem that while Corbyn has increased Labour's total by just 0.6% across the UK with yougov in Scotland he has increased it by 4%, coupled with Labour's biggest lead being in London it confirms what I suspected that Scotland and London would be where Corbyn made his biggest gains
Dair I paid in every week for fifty years into what I was told would be my pension fund..that was no lie.... what the recipient did with the money... various governments... has no bearing at all on the basic principle..
You were lied to and gullible.
Now you want others to subsidise your mistake.
The moral hazard was yours, like any con, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. But an entire generation of destructive individuals decided to ignore reality and believe the completely unbelievable.
I wondered before, but now I see, you're an ageist. Presumably you think the Boomers should be ejected from the airlock once they retire. All the more reason for Scotland to become independent, we'll have fewer people spewing bile on here.
There's nothing ageist in identifying how the Boomers have prospered from stupidity and then pulled the ladder up behind them. They expect state handouts they do not need, while those who will need them - Gen Y and Millennials who have absolutely NO viable pension savings vehicle - will retire into abject poverty as the state, burdened by trillions of pounds of debt from past generations pension obligations, will be unable to offer any help..
Surely the boomers will pass all their assets down to the Gen Y and Millennials thus meaning they can do nothing and just inherit it.
Comments
In truth, while I hate this increasing level of inter-generational divisiveness, I do think Scotland could and should be independent. The Union means nothing to me. Scotland is to the UK as the UK is to Europe; we'd all be better doing our own thing.
I think there's some truth in it, but the thing is a lot of the people who make that argument contradict themselves. These are often the same people who say it's self-evident that Miliband was too left-wing because he lost in England to a party to his right, yet they don't apply the same logic to Scotland where they lost to a party which was (rhetorically at least) positioned to Labour's left.
Chancellor Merkel today seems to be promising nothing less than absolution for Germany's sins of the Holocaust. The problem is, of course, that Muslims are quite different from Jews.
German media outlets have suppressed the stories of rampant rape and child abuse among the migrants housed in government-run accommodations.
The editor-in-chief defended her decision to suppress the rape story on public TV broadcaster ZDF: "We don't want to inflame the situation and spread the bad mood. [The migrants] don't deserve it." That the poor rape victim deserved justice was apparently of no concern to the broadcaster.
Germany under Chancellor Merkel wants to play "Miss Congeniality" at the global scale, and wants Europe to pick up the tab.
I do think we need to stop benefits to wealthy pensioners. Means testing has a bad name, but it's now necessary. While I've retired, I'm fourteen years off a state pension, and given I'm still a higher rate tax payer, I don't see that I'd want or need any of the universal benefits.
New Thread New Thread
In fact your infirm prejudices blind you to the truth. How sad you are that you need this fantasy to keep you happy.
I think McColm's article understates the extent of SLAB's problems. With Frank "Pie Man" McAveety back in control of Glasgow, Corbyn's man on the ground in Scotland - Neil Findlay - in no mans land, while Kezia sits in Edinburgh SLAB sending out tweets. I know many SNP supporters at times tire of the party, but with no viable alternatives it doesn't take long to come back to the default option !!
To the space port....