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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Democrat debate polling finds Hillary getting big bo

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Democrat debate polling finds Hillary getting big boost from this week’s event

By far the biggest political betting story at the moment is the fight for the presidency of the United States. Although the election itself is 13 months away we are now going through the early stages of the party jostling as both Democrat and Republican hopefuls try to position themselves ahead of the primaries which start in February.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • First ..... again!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited October 2015
    2nd, like Bernie!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    "It’s becoming harder to see how she can be beaten"

    A Republican.
  • It's hardly surprising that Hillary's price is shortening - there's really no credible opposition to her ..... as yet, unless the U.S. were to go all Corbynesque which it won't, having more collective good sense.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Yep. I think only the Feds can stop Hilary getting the nomination. And I would be astonished if they did.

    Is there any reason why the third nationally televised Republican debate is coming up and the Democrats have had one? I'm not saying these things necessarily boost the parties but I would have expected some sort of equality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Cook dropped again in the nervous 170s.

    The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    Being serious, I agree with Mike that Hillary is looking like a shoo-in for the nomination. Sanders' support has a very hard ceiling on it, Biden is almost certain not to run having left it so late and with Hillary not looking all that vulnerable (or put another way, she's deferred any serious stumble so late as to write current non-runners out of it), the e-mail saga hasn't damaged her fatally, and other announced candidates have made practically zero impact. It's hers for the taking.

    However, she's a weak candidate and an electable GOP rival should beat her.
  • "It’s becoming harder to see how she can be beaten"

    A Republican.

    Although not made clear, I think Mike's thread relates solely to the Democratic nomination - certainly the odds he quotes do.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    DavidL said:

    Yep. I think only the Feds can stop Hilary getting the nomination. And I would be astonished if they did.

    Is there any reason why the third nationally televised Republican debate is coming up and the Democrats have had one? I'm not saying these things necessarily boost the parties but I would have expected some sort of equality.

    Public interest, I should imagine. The GOP race is competitive; the Democratic one isn't. The equality is that were the situation reversed, the Blue side would be getting the greater coverage.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    DavidL said:

    Yep. I think only the Feds can stop Hilary getting the nomination. And I would be astonished if they did.

    Is there any reason why the third nationally televised Republican debate is coming up and the Democrats have had one? I'm not saying these things necessarily boost the parties but I would have expected some sort of equality.

    Public interest, I should imagine. The GOP race is competitive; the Democratic one isn't. The equality is that were the situation reversed, the Blue side would be getting the greater coverage.
    Yes probably. And the republican field has more of an entertainment factor with a full set of clowns.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yep. I think only the Feds can stop Hilary getting the nomination. And I would be astonished if they did.

    Is there any reason why the third nationally televised Republican debate is coming up and the Democrats have had one? I'm not saying these things necessarily boost the parties but I would have expected some sort of equality.

    Public interest, I should imagine. The GOP race is competitive; the Democratic one isn't. The equality is that were the situation reversed, the Blue side would be getting the greater coverage.
    Yes probably. And the republican field has more of an entertainment factor with a full set of clowns.
    A full set of clowns? Hilary Clinton, single, weighs them all down!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    DavidL said:

    Cook dropped again in the nervous 170s.

    The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.

    If they could keep Pakistan out there for the rest of the day and build a small lead tomorrow, then perhaps a sudden collapse by exhausted batsmen in the second Pakistan innings isn't out of the question. I don't think the draw is quite a foregone conclusion.

    Of course, it will never happen, as this is England we're talking about. Much more likely that even now they will fail to save the follow-on.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2015
    Southwark (South Camberwell) result:
    LAB - 57.9% (+9.0)
    GRN - 20.5% (-1.3)
    LDEM - 10.4% (+2.3)
    CON - 9.3% (-1.4)
    APP - 1.8% (-2.7)

    Chatteris (Cambridgeshire) result:
    UKIP - 41.0% (+6.2)
    CON - 40.3% (+5.8)
    LDEM - 18.7% (-2.6)

    Howgate (Cumbria) result:
    LAB - 47.6% (-12.9)
    CON - 33.2% (+2.2)
    UKIP - 19.2% (+19.2)

    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Cook dropped again in the nervous 170s.

    The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.

    If they could keep Pakistan out there for the rest of the day and build a small lead tomorrow, then perhaps a sudden collapse by exhausted batsmen in the second Pakistan innings isn't out of the question. I don't think the draw is quite a foregone conclusion.

    Of course, it will never happen, as this is England we're talking about. Much more likely that even now they will fail to save the follow-on.
    The problem is really the scoring rate. Even Root is scoring at 37 and he usually provides some impetus to the England innings. This means even by stumps they would be lucky to be more than 70 ahead, not really enough to apply any pressure.

    These sorts of games can speed up as the wicket deteriorates but I think that a draw is pretty much nailed on here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Cook dropped again in the nervous 170s.

    The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.

    If they could keep Pakistan out there for the rest of the day and build a small lead tomorrow, then perhaps a sudden collapse by exhausted batsmen in the second Pakistan innings isn't out of the question. I don't think the draw is quite a foregone conclusion.

    Of course, it will never happen, as this is England we're talking about. Much more likely that even now they will fail to save the follow-on.
    Follow on saved. Nailed on draw now as it's definitely not going to rain!
  • chestnut said:

    Southwark (South Camberwell) result:
    LAB - 57.9% (+9.0)
    GRN - 20.5% (-1.3)
    LDEM - 10.4% (+2.3)
    CON - 9.3% (-1.4)
    APP - 1.8% (-2.7)

    Chatteris (Cambridgeshire) result:
    UKIP - 41.0% (+6.2)
    CON - 40.3% (+5.8)
    LDEM - 18.7% (-2.6)

    Howgate (Cumbria) result:
    LAB - 47.6% (-12.9)
    CON - 33.2% (+2.2)
    UKIP - 19.2% (+19.2)

    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    Inner London, by definition, I suggest, is not Middle England. UKIP bucked the trend by holding Chatteris - but that was probably more about the candidates than their Parties.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Cook dropped again in the nervous 170s.

    The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.

    If they could keep Pakistan out there for the rest of the day and build a small lead tomorrow, then perhaps a sudden collapse by exhausted batsmen in the second Pakistan innings isn't out of the question. I don't think the draw is quite a foregone conclusion.

    Of course, it will never happen, as this is England we're talking about. Much more likely that even now they will fail to save the follow-on.
    Follow on saved. Nailed on draw now as it's definitely not going to rain!
    Forecast gives a 20% chance of rain this afternoon....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Cook dropped again in the nervous 170s.

    The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.

    If they could keep Pakistan out there for the rest of the day and build a small lead tomorrow, then perhaps a sudden collapse by exhausted batsmen in the second Pakistan innings isn't out of the question. I don't think the draw is quite a foregone conclusion.

    Of course, it will never happen, as this is England we're talking about. Much more likely that even now they will fail to save the follow-on.
    Follow on saved. Nailed on draw now as it's definitely not going to rain!
    yeah, being a weatherman in Abu Dhabi must be one of life's less stressful numbers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    The Republican field is fascinating. Wild cards are making all of the running while none of the serious candidates are generating any enthusiasm yet. This will presumably change but it's awfully hard to work out which sensible candidate support is going to coalesce around.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392

    DavidL said:

    Yep. I think only the Feds can stop Hilary getting the nomination. And I would be astonished if they did.

    Is there any reason why the third nationally televised Republican debate is coming up and the Democrats have had one? I'm not saying these things necessarily boost the parties but I would have expected some sort of equality.

    Public interest, I should imagine. The GOP race is competitive; the Democratic one isn't. The equality is that were the situation reversed, the Blue side would be getting the greater coverage.
    But who will the GOP pick?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349
    Hillary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President of The United States
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Good morning, everyone.

    Clinton does seem inevitable. Then again, she did 8 years ago too.

    Mr. L, it almost rained during one Abu Dhabi practice session. It was very exciting.

    In news literally some people have been waiting for, the antepenultimate episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up:
    http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-gunboat/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Thanks for your tip. I got £20 on the blues at 6.6 and 6.8 last night. May top up a little today as they've drifted further, despite the narrowing of the polls.

    Strangely enough, I can't find any other markets to compare the odds at Betfair toward.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    edited October 2015

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,327
    Both teams would probably be quite happy to see the rain. It's not going to change the result, in fact it makes it even more likely !
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,521

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    but not the main one eh?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,327
    edited October 2015
    Just placed my first bet on the test, Cook top score (England) @ 1-50 :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @BethRigby: hearing there's growing sense @ #BBC a)#Yentob wld b better off defending himself outside BBC b)#KidsCo link drawing too lunch fire on #BBC

    @BethRigby: #Yentob told Times any suggestion he was leaving #BBC "ridiculous & completely untrue" but it's 'drawing to conclusion' says source #KidsCo
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Cook dropped again in the nervous 170s.

    The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.

    If they could keep Pakistan out there for the rest of the day and build a small lead tomorrow, then perhaps a sudden collapse by exhausted batsmen in the second Pakistan innings isn't out of the question. I don't think the draw is quite a foregone conclusion.

    Of course, it will never happen, as this is England we're talking about. Much more likely that even now they will fail to save the follow-on.
    Follow on saved. Nailed on draw now as it's definitely not going to rain!
    yeah, being a weatherman in Abu Dhabi must be one of life's less stressful numbers.
    We get about 10 rainy days a year in the sandpit, At random times between end of Novermber and February. The effect when it does happen is the same as for snow in the UK - more than a couple of inches of it and everyone stays home for the day as they wonder why no-one was prepared for it!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    Cyclefree said:
    Sadly it is more likely that someone within the police will read and start an investigation into the journalist.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    MacPherson destroyed the police as we knew them
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Pulpstar said:

    Just placed my first bet on the test, Cook top score (England) @ 1-50 :D

    That's really good odds. If England batted for the next 2 days I think even Root would struggle to get what he has got now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    On topic, didn't everyone think Hilary was the shoo-in at this stage in 2007?
    There's still a long way to go before the nomination, and plenty of known unknowns - let alone the unknown unknowns - that could yet derail her campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, didn't everyone think Hilary was the shoo-in at this stage in 2007?
    There's still a long way to go before the nomination, and plenty of known unknowns - let alone the unknown unknowns - that could yet derail her campaign.

    Not quite everyone. Rumour has it SOMEBODY backed Obama at 50-1....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Mark, surely such an oracle would have told someone about that bet?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,327
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just placed my first bet on the test, Cook top score (England) @ 1-50 :D

    That's really good odds. If England batted for the next 2 days I think even Root would struggle to get what he has got now.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/cricket/market/1.120659031
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,489
    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    antifrank said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Sadly it is more likely that someone within the police will read and start an investigation into the journalist.
    The corrosion of the independence and professionalism of our public services which has occurred over the last 15 years or so (maybe even longer) is a disgrace. It's not just bankers who have lost their moral compass.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. F, indeed, the question is whether the wide open flank Labour has on immigration can be attacked properly by UKIP. Right now, the answer seems to be no, given Farage and UKIP's absence from the public sphere over the migrant crisis.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Indeed, Miss Cyclefree. As an aside, the independence and honesty of the judiciary was a generally good indicator of the state of the Roman Empire, from the good work that happened under Vespasian/Titus and the Golden Age of Imperial Rome, to the dodginess of Paul the Chain during Constantius II's reign.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,574
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    Indeed and Palmer draws a silly conclusion based on one variable changing as a result of Corbyn drawing back extreme left-wingers while ignoring other just as likely, variables of Labour losing the votes of moderates in middle England. It's similar to the nonsense about tax credits - take an extreme example and ignore all the other changes - tax allowance, NMW, very low inflation, increased employment, etc.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,041
    Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Cyclefree said:

    antifrank said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Sadly it is more likely that someone within the police will read and start an investigation into the journalist.
    The corrosion of the independence and professionalism of our public services which has occurred over the last 15 years or so (maybe even longer) is a disgrace. It's not just bankers who have lost their moral compass.
    Well said. The police in particular seem to have lost it since they dropped interest in burglary and theft in favour of speed cameras. That they bent over backwards to look at historical sex offences while ignoring what was going on in Rotherham only adds to the impression that they've lost direction.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    edited October 2015
    On topic, anecdotally the debate seems to have very much stopped the rot for Hillary among Democats - friends who were wavering between her and Bernie say they and others they talk to felt that Hillary just seemed "so much more Presidential than the others" and also "more poised, less shrill". Arguably Bernie's line on people being fed up with the email story will in retrospect prove to have turned the corner for Hillary among Democrats (and perhaps got him a future Cabinet post, if there's any fairness in these things), not least if the post-debate polls make Biden decide to give the whole thing a miss.

    Whether Hillary or whoever the Democrat is can beat the GOP is another matter, and almost impossible to take a view on until we know who it is.

    Relevant comment:
    http://www.wsj.com/article_email/the-biden-eclipse-and-the-trump-plateau-1444948741-lMyQjAxMTI1MjE2NjIxMDYwWj
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349

    Mr. Mark, surely such an oracle would have told someone about that bet?

    The only oracles on PB who always hide their total wagering brilliance behind a bushel are the follicularly challenged Bedford sage and the Right Honourable Auchentennach TOTY.

    So it couldn't possibly be them .... perhaps it was @Roger .... :smile:

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    That result of c.80% for Labour and the Greens in Camberwell sort of explains how so many of their blogging and social media residents were so confused by the GE2015 result.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Its so crass to politically knee-cap rebels like this.

    Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece

  • Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    That result of c.80% for Labour and the Greens in Camberwell sort of explains how so many of their blogging and social media residents were so confused by the GE2015 result.
    It was the same in 1983, IIRC...

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    Its so crass to politically knee-cap rebels like this.

    Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece

    Good morning all. Please don't dignify them as rebels. They abstained, which is the political equivalent of passing notes in class. Combined with the silly little leaks to the papers, it's hardly the sign of people dying in a ditch in defense of their principles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    On topic, anecdotally the debate seems to have very much stopped the rot for Hillary among Democats - friends who were wavering between her and Bernie say they and others they talk to felt that Hillary just seemed "so much more Presidential than the others" and also "more poised, less shrill". Arguably Bernie's line on people being fed up with the email story will in retrospect prove to have turned the corner for Hillary among Democrats (and perhaps got him a future Cabinet post, if there's any fairness in these things), not least if the post-debate polls make Biden decide to give the whole thing a miss.

    Whether Hillary or whoever the Democrat is can beat the GOP is another matter, and almost impossible to take a view on until we know who it is.

    Relevant comment:
    http://www.wsj.com/article_email/the-biden-eclipse-and-the-trump-plateau-1444948741-lMyQjAxMTI1MjE2NjIxMDYwWj

    On present polling it is Hillary v Trump and has been for months. In most polls Hillary wins that
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. M, indeed, it's pathetic.

    They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.
  • Mr. M, indeed, it's pathetic.

    They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.

    I think that's why Osborne said what he said.
  • Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece

    This was totally unexpected, right?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637

    Mr. M, indeed, it's pathetic.

    They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.

    But everyone wants him gone.

    So, individually, they don't have to commit at this stage until someone else has done the dirty work and they can be the "unifying figure" to save the party

    Of course, if everyone calculates like this... ;)
  • Mr. M, indeed, it's pathetic.

    They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.

    If he PLP passed a vote of no confidence in JC, he'd ask the membership for a fresh mandate. And he'd get it.

    If the 200 "impressions of a nodding dog" quit (before they were deselected, which most of them would be in this scenario) they'd have no money, no organisation - and they'd be under enormous pressure to do what that chap did in Clacton. Not necessarily with the same result, though.

    And Cameron? Well, if he's got the sense he was born with, he'd restore the deposit to what it was in 1918 - 1 vote in 8 and £10k (the equivalent now of £150 then).

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It's the newer, kinder, gentler intimidation.

    Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece

    This was totally unexpected, right?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015

    Mr. M, indeed, it's pathetic.

    They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.

    They're too weak. They know it, and we know it. Gordon Brown did an excellent job of flushing out and crushing anyone with a spine in the PLP, and this is the end result.

    Corbyn will ride rough shod over them all. And they'll adopt the position, and take it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    edited October 2015
    Mr. Paris, he may as well have held out a hoop for them to jump through.

    Mr. Abroad, the PLP has some power now. It can exercise that to either try and oust Corbyn or form a break-away party, or wait until its power is eroded by habitual obedience and de-selection of the truculent.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. 30, strength is often down to self-belief. Labour MPs are the opposite of the French pug that chased two bears off its property.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349

    It's the newer, kinder, gentler intimidation.

    Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece

    This was totally unexpected, right?
    Expulsion with an added fluffy bunny.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    watford30 said:

    Mr. M, indeed, it's pathetic.

    They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.

    They're too weak. They know it, and we know it. Gordon Brown did an excellent job of flushing out and crushing anyone with a spine in the PLP, and this is the end result.

    Corbyn will ride rough shod over them all. And they'll adopt the position, and take it.
    They're weak if they believe they're weak and strong if they believe it so: their power is precisely what they mean it to be. That might be Alice in Wonderland but then so is much of this Corbyn leadership.
  • Mr. Paris, he may as well have held out a hoop for them to jump through.

    Mr. Abroad, the PLP has some power now. It can exercise that to either try and oust Corbyn or form a break-away party, or wait until its power is eroded by habitual obedience and de-selection of the truculent.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. 30, strength is often down to self-belief. Labour MPs are the opposite of the French pug that chased two bears off its property.

    Aren't we saying the same thing in different words? The PLP doesn't select Labour's leader. The Party's problem is that its MPs want office and its members are, at heart, oppositionists. They've had 13 years continuous "Labour " government which started by adopting Tory spending plans to get elected and finished with an imperialist war just to please a hard-right US President.

    Win another election? That's the last thing a typical Labour member wants.

  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015
    Charles said:

    Mr. M, indeed, it's pathetic.

    They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.

    But everyone wants him gone.

    So, individually, they don't have to commit at this stage until someone else has done the dirty work and they can be the "unifying figure" to save the party

    Of course, if everyone calculates like this... ;)
    They're gutless.

    Remember James Purnell's attempt to oust Brown, which ended in failure when Burnham and David Milliband went wobbly, and chickened out on supporting him?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191312/James-Purnells-fury-betrayal-David-Miliband-Brown-go.html

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11934799/Floodgates-open-for-new-wave-of-grammar-schools-across-England.html
    Schools in Sutton, Buckinghamshire and Dorset confirmed they would look to expand in light of the government decision. While councils in Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead confirmed that they were expecting schools in their region to submit applications for permissions to set up satellite sites.

    Education experts told the Telegraph they also know of schools in Torbay, Medway and Lincolnshire who may now attempt to take advantage of the ruling.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,327

    It's the newer, kinder, gentler intimidation.

    Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece

    This was totally unexpected, right?
    Abstentions can be worked out from Hansard anyway can't they though :D ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    If only Kids Company realised how much they could have charged for their contribution to the Tories rebranding exercise perhaps they'd still be in business

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/14/cameron-and-gove-showered-praise-on-kids-company-in-18-months-before-its-closure#img-1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    edited October 2015
    Mr. Abroad, you're somewhat wrong on the first point. Corbyn needed 35 MPs to give him the nod. A few were genuine supporters, but over half were just idiots who didn't understand they were meant to be gatekeepers preventing people they didn't want from becoming leader [or having the chance].

    Corbyn will have some genuine loyalists, those who wouldn't get shadow positions otherwise, and those who think party unity matters more than having a leader who isn't a full-blown socialist with a hint of communism.

    The PLP is pretending its cowardice is a virtue. It could try making Corbyn resign by serially rebelling, or form a break-away party. Or it could sit there, uselessly, nodding compliantly.

    Edited extra bit: precisely, Mr. 30. They're the opposite of the Macedonians when Alexander died. There were about a dozen alpha wolves, every one bold, brave and cunning.

    Purnell was right to be pissed, and Miliband (D) harmed his own prospects with his cowardice.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Gove strikes again - Unpopular criminal courts’ charge reviewed after widespread concerns among magistrates http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/law/article4587210.ece
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,327
    Well done Cook !
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975

    Mr. Paris, he may as well have held out a hoop for them to jump through.

    Mr. Abroad, the PLP has some power now. It can exercise that to either try and oust Corbyn or form a break-away party, or wait until its power is eroded by habitual obedience and de-selection of the truculent.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. 30, strength is often down to self-belief. Labour MPs are the opposite of the French pug that chased two bears off its property.

    Aren't we saying the same thing in different words? The PLP doesn't select Labour's leader. The Party's problem is that its MPs want office and its members are, at heart, oppositionists. They've had 13 years continuous "Labour " government which started by adopting Tory spending plans to get elected and finished with an imperialist war just to please a hard-right US President.

    Win another election? That's the last thing a typical Labour member wants.

    It actually finished with a classic Labour spending blowout so they were true to form on some things but you're spot-on about the sacrifices in ideology and self-discipline/denial made in the pursuit of power, and where it took them. The Iraq War was less than half way through their period in office.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    This kind of thing would annoy me for a writing submission. But for something as serious as this, it really is bloody stupid:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34546338

    People are being asked to re-submit details of child sex abuse, after some submissions were deleted.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,489
    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    Indeed and Palmer draws a silly conclusion based on one variable changing as a result of Corbyn drawing back extreme left-wingers while ignoring other just as likely, variables of Labour losing the votes of moderates in middle England. It's similar to the nonsense about tax credits - take an extreme example and ignore all the other changes - tax allowance, NMW, very low inflation, increased employment, etc.
    Just running through the seats where the Greens won 10%+ in May. Islington N and S, Hackney N and S, Holborn & St. Pancras, Deptford, Camberwell, Bristol S & W, Oxford E, Norwich S, Sheffield SE, Liverpool Riverside, York, all solid for Labour.

    Then Totnes, Bath, and Buckingham, where Labour doesn't feature. And Brighton Pavilion, which is solidly left-wing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,988
    John_M said:

    Its so crass to politically knee-cap rebels like this.

    Here come the punishing beatings.

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago

    Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece

    Good morning all. Please don't dignify them as rebels. They abstained, which is the political equivalent of passing notes in class. Combined with the silly little leaks to the papers, it's hardly the sign of people dying in a ditch in defense of their principles.
    Bunch of cowards, don't even have the cojones to be rebels , just wimpy abstainers. Shame them publicly and run them out the useless Labour party, sounds like they are Lib Dems in any case.
  • Those by election results simply mimic what happened in May- increase vote share in London, ukip eating into Labour's vote up north.

    In other news, I see the Tax credit fiasco rumbles on. Beginning to see this as a total utter Feck up from master strategist Osborne. Should be expect some changes in the autumn stament?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    Mr. Paris, he may as well have held out a hoop for them to jump through.

    Mr. Abroad, the PLP has some power now. It can exercise that to either try and oust Corbyn or form a break-away party, or wait until its power is eroded by habitual obedience and de-selection of the truculent.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. 30, strength is often down to self-belief. Labour MPs are the opposite of the French pug that chased two bears off its property.

    Aren't we saying the same thing in different words? The PLP doesn't select Labour's leader. The Party's problem is that its MPs want office and its members are, at heart, oppositionists. They've had 13 years continuous "Labour " government which started by adopting Tory spending plans to get elected and finished with an imperialist war just to please a hard-right US President.

    Win another election? That's the last thing a typical Labour member wants.

    It actually finished with a classic Labour spending blowout so they were true to form on some things but you're spot-on about the sacrifices in ideology and self-discipline/denial made in the pursuit of power, and where it took them. The Iraq War was less than half way through their period in office.
    There is the concept of learning from past mistakes, which I commend to the Labour party.

    I'd be interested to see them run on a higher tax/higher spending platform. I have no issue (as a principle, you understand) with higher public spending as long as it isn't funded by borrowing. By higher tax, I do mean across the population, rather than the fantasy 'soak the rich/bankstas' nonsense which they keep peddling.

    However, as long as they cling to the idea of 'borrowing to invest', their previous record in government will haunt them. Brown has poisoned the word 'investment' for an entire political generation.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466

    Those by election results simply mimic what happened in May- increase vote share in London, ukip eating into Labour's vote up north.

    In other news, I see the Tax credit fiasco rumbles on. Beginning to see this as a total utter Feck up from master strategist Osborne. Should be expect some changes in the autumn stament?

    I would be unsurprised to see some transitional arrangements in the autumn statement. Particularly given the pitiful state of the opposition, all the Tories need to do is avoid blowing their own feet off. There are sufficient wobbly backbenchers to give George pause.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. M, possible, but also possible that complacency and arrogance will see Osborne blow his own feet off.

    It may be a useful early indicator of whether the Conservatives will be complacent and let their opponent rise from the canvas, or whether they're keeping their focus.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 761

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11934799/Floodgates-open-for-new-wave-of-grammar-schools-across-England.html

    Schools in Sutton, Buckinghamshire and Dorset confirmed they would look to expand in light of the government decision. While councils in Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead confirmed that they were expecting schools in their region to submit applications for permissions to set up satellite sites.

    Education experts told the Telegraph they also know of schools in Torbay, Medway and Lincolnshire who may now attempt to take advantage of the ruling.
    A quick gander of Wikipedia tells me that 38 of the 152 local education authorities contain state Grammar schools, so the scope for expansion is considerable.

    Also, I wonder whether, with a good number of the grammars now being academies or trusts, whether we will see a grammar school somewhere trying to open a satellite on the edge of or even across an LEA boundary.

    When I was a kid, our (geographically small) LEA started to implement a masterplan whereby all the comprehensive schools in the middle of the LEA would close, and the remaining 10 schools would sit on the borders of neighbouring LEAs, attracting students from those places. It was barking mad, of course, but my point is that 'parking the tanks' in terms of school location is not unknown.

    On another note, hundred up :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,489

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    That result of c.80% for Labour and the Greens in Camberwell sort of explains how so many of their blogging and social media residents were so confused by the GE2015 result.
    It shows again how much we are Two Nations, divided not by class, but by outlook.
  • This kind of thing would annoy me for a writing submission. But for something as serious as this, it really is bloody stupid:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34546338

    People are being asked to re-submit details of child sex abuse, after some submissions were deleted.

    Hm, at least they are forms people submitted online - not, say, delicate testimony obtained face-to-face.

    But inexcusable nevertheless.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11934799/Floodgates-open-for-new-wave-of-grammar-schools-across-England.html

    Schools in Sutton, Buckinghamshire and Dorset confirmed they would look to expand in light of the government decision. While councils in Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead confirmed that they were expecting schools in their region to submit applications for permissions to set up satellite sites.

    Education experts told the Telegraph they also know of schools in Torbay, Medway and Lincolnshire who may now attempt to take advantage of the ruling.
    A quick gander of Wikipedia tells me that 38 of the 152 local education authorities contain state Grammar schools, so the scope for expansion is considerable.

    Also, I wonder whether, with a good number of the grammars now being academies or trusts, whether we will see a grammar school somewhere trying to open a satellite on the edge of or even across an LEA boundary.

    When I was a kid, our (geographically small) LEA started to implement a masterplan whereby all the comprehensive schools in the middle of the LEA would close, and the remaining 10 schools would sit on the borders of neighbouring LEAs, attracting students from those places. It was barking mad, of course, but my point is that 'parking the tanks' in terms of school location is not unknown.

    On another note, hundred up :)

    My grammar school, in Colchester, has responded to every period of local pressure by expanding, as a way of justifying its ongoing existence. A second site would hardly seem impossible in what is a massively growing town.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @BBCJLandale: Labour MPs have a new moniker for Diane Abbott. The doughty Corbyn defender is now known as Madame Mao. Ouch.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited October 2015
    Pro_Rata said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11934799/Floodgates-open-for-new-wave-of-grammar-schools-across-England.html

    Schools in Sutton, Buckinghamshire and Dorset confirmed they would look to expand in light of the government decision. While councils in Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead confirmed that they were expecting schools in their region to submit applications for permissions to set up satellite sites.

    Education experts told the Telegraph they also know of schools in Torbay, Medway and Lincolnshire who may now attempt to take advantage of the ruling.
    A quick gander of Wikipedia tells me that 38 of the 152 local education authorities contain state Grammar schools, so the scope for expansion is considerable.

    Also, I wonder whether, with a good number of the grammars now being academies or trusts, whether we will see a grammar school somewhere trying to open a satellite on the edge of or even across an LEA boundary.

    When I was a kid, our (geographically small) LEA started to implement a masterplan whereby all the comprehensive schools in the middle of the LEA would close, and the remaining 10 schools would sit on the borders of neighbouring LEAs, attracting students from those places. It was barking mad, of course, but my point is that 'parking the tanks' in terms of school location is not unknown.

    On another note, hundred up :)

    Congratulations on your century ;).

    I'm expecting Lucy Powell to do another impression of Sideshow Bob in the field of rakes. It's another bear trap for Labour. If they oppose, then they're even less likely to recover in the South.

    I think Mr Innocent made a good point earlier. Labour don't, for now, want to be in power.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Mr. Abroad, you're somewhat wrong on the first point. Corbyn needed 35 MPs to give him the nod. A few were genuine supporters, but over half were just idiots who didn't understand they were meant to be gatekeepers preventing people they didn't want from becoming leader [or having the chance].

    Corbyn will have some genuine loyalists, those who wouldn't get shadow positions otherwise, and those who think party unity matters more than having a leader who isn't a full-blown socialist with a hint of communism.

    The PLP is pretending its cowardice is a virtue. It could try making Corbyn resign by serially rebelling, or form a break-away party. Or it could sit there, uselessly, nodding compliantly.

    Edited extra bit: precisely, Mr. 30. They're the opposite of the Macedonians when Alexander died. There were about a dozen alpha wolves, every one bold, brave and cunning.

    Purnell was right to be pissed, and Miliband (D) harmed his own prospects with his cowardice.

    You have pretty much said it Mr Dancer, the PLP have paddled themselves up the creek and have now ceremoniously thrown the paddle away. By 2020 the labour party will have transmogrified itself from what it was in 2015, never mind 2005. And at least half of the PLP will not be candidates by then.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,804
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    Indeed and Palmer draws a silly conclusion based on one variable changing as a result of Corbyn drawing back extreme left-wingers while ignoring other just as likely, variables of Labour losing the votes of moderates in middle England. It's similar to the nonsense about tax credits - take an extreme example and ignore all the other changes - tax allowance, NMW, very low inflation, increased employment, etc.
    Just running through the seats where the Greens won 10%+ in May. Islington N and S, Hackney N and S, Holborn & St. Pancras, Deptford, Camberwell, Bristol S & W, Oxford E, Norwich S, Sheffield SE, Liverpool Riverside, York, all solid for Labour.

    Then Totnes, Bath, and Buckingham, where Labour doesn't feature. And Brighton Pavilion, which is solidly left-wing.
    There is also the issue with the assumption that most Green voters (60% according to Nick P) were/are seeking the most left-wing, anti-austerity party and will therefore switch now that Corbyn is 'running' the show. I'm not convinced it's has been that high or will be. We'll see in next few years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020
    Duller and duller. Why can't they be more like the republicans?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2015
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    Indeed and Palmer draws a silly conclusion based on one variable changing as a result of Corbyn drawing back extreme left-wingers while ignoring other just as likely, variables of Labour losing the votes of moderates in middle England. It's similar to the nonsense about tax credits - take an extreme example and ignore all the other changes - tax allowance, NMW, very low inflation, increased employment, etc.
    Just running through the seats where the Greens won 10%+ in May. Islington N and S, Hackney N and S, Holborn & St. Pancras, Deptford, Camberwell, Bristol S & W, Oxford E, Norwich S, Sheffield SE, Liverpool Riverside, York, all solid for Labour.

    Then Totnes, Bath, and Buckingham, where Labour doesn't feature. And Brighton Pavilion, which is solidly left-wing.
    The Greens had 21 third places or better.

    20 were in Labour seats; the other one was the seat held by Caroline Lucas.

    16 of the 20 Labour seats were in London; seats held by people like Abbott, Corbyn, O'Donnell, usually in the 1980s 'socialist republic' boroughs.

    They aren't reaching out, they're crowding in.

    Ed's core vote strategy has been supplanted by Corby's inner-core strategy.
  • John_M said:

    Those by election results simply mimic what happened in May- increase vote share in London, ukip eating into Labour's vote up north.

    In other news, I see the Tax credit fiasco rumbles on. Beginning to see this as a total utter Feck up from master strategist Osborne. Should be expect some changes in the autumn stament?

    I would be unsurprised to see some transitional arrangements in the autumn statement. Particularly given the pitiful state of the opposition, all the Tories need to do is avoid blowing their own feet off. There are sufficient wobbly backbenchers to give George pause.

    There will be a U-Turn on this. Too many Tory-inclined voters are going to be affected. Being unelectable Labour won't take advantage, but it could harm Osborne's shot at succeeding Cameron as PM.

  • Roger said:

    If only Kids Company realised how much they could have charged for their contribution to the Tories rebranding exercise perhaps they'd still be in business

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/14/cameron-and-gove-showered-praise-on-kids-company-in-18-months-before-its-closure#img-1

    Lefty virtue signalling, surely. I blame the BBC.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    There will be a U-Turn on this. Too many Tory-inclined voters are going to be affected.

    Myth.

    Granted, it's being successfully peddled.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,020

    Gove strikes again - Unpopular criminal courts’ charge reviewed after widespread concerns among magistrates http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/law/article4587210.ece

    His job appears to be to stir things up and throw around ideas, some of which work and some don't, then he can be replaced when the area gets too riled up by someone less divisive, without sacrificing the thrust of his goals. A useful man if deployed right it would seem.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,804
    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    Indeed and Palmer draws a silly conclusion based on one variable changing as a result of Corbyn drawing back extreme left-wingers while ignoring other just as likely, variables of Labour losing the votes of moderates in middle England. It's similar to the nonsense about tax credits - take an extreme example and ignore all the other changes - tax allowance, NMW, very low inflation, increased employment, etc.
    Just running through the seats where the Greens won 10%+ in May. Islington N and S, Hackney N and S, Holborn & St. Pancras, Deptford, Camberwell, Bristol S & W, Oxford E, Norwich S, Sheffield SE, Liverpool Riverside, York, all solid for Labour.

    Then Totnes, Bath, and Buckingham, where Labour doesn't feature. And Brighton Pavilion, which is solidly left-wing.
    The Greens had 21 third places or better.

    20 were in Labour seats; the other one was the seat held by Caroline Lucas.

    16 of the 20 Labour seats were in London; seats held by people like Abbott, Corbyn, O'Donnell, usually in the 1980s 'socialist republic' boroughs.

    They aren't reaching out, they're crowding in.

    Ed's core vote strategy has been supplanted by Corby's inner-core strategy.
    If these Green voters were desperately searching for a left-wing, anti-austerity person to vote for why did they vote Green in these inner london seats where, as you say, the seat is held " by people like Abbott, Corbyn, O'Donnell, usually in the 1980s 'socialist republic' boroughs."?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053




    Good morning. My morning check on what the peaceful palestinians are doing.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    Indeed and Palmer draws a silly conclusion based on one variable changing as a result of Corbyn drawing back extreme left-wingers while ignoring other just as likely, variables of Labour losing the votes of moderates in middle England. It's similar to the nonsense about tax credits - take an extreme example and ignore all the other changes - tax allowance, NMW, very low inflation, increased employment, etc.
    Just running through the seats where the Greens won 10%+ in May. Islington N and S, Hackney N and S, Holborn & St. Pancras, Deptford, Camberwell, Bristol S & W, Oxford E, Norwich S, Sheffield SE, Liverpool Riverside, York, all solid for Labour.

    Then Totnes, Bath, and Buckingham, where Labour doesn't feature. And Brighton Pavilion, which is solidly left-wing.
    The Greens had 21 third places or better.

    20 were in Labour seats; the other one was the seat held by Caroline Lucas.

    16 of the 20 Labour seats were in London; seats held by people like Abbott, Corbyn, O'Donnell, usually in the 1980s 'socialist republic' boroughs.

    They aren't reaching out, they're crowding in.

    Ed's core vote strategy has been supplanted by Corby's inner-core strategy.
    If these Green voters were desperately searching for a left-wing, anti-austerity person to vote for why did they vote Green in these inner london seats where, as you say, the seat is held " by people like Abbott, Corbyn, O'Donnell, usually in the 1980s 'socialist republic' boroughs."?
    Because the Labour leadership and it's policies were completely at odds with those then powerless MPs.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 761
    John_M said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11934799/Floodgates-open-for-new-wave-of-grammar-schools-across-England.html

    Schools in Sutton, Buckinghamshire and Dorset confirmed they would look to expand in light of the government decision. While councils in Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead confirmed that they were expecting schools in their region to submit applications for permissions to set up satellite sites.

    Education experts told the Telegraph they also know of schools in Torbay, Medway and Lincolnshire who may now attempt to take advantage of the ruling.
    A quick gander of Wikipedia tells me that 38 of the 152 local education authorities contain state Grammar schools, so the scope for expansion is considerable.

    Also, I wonder whether, with a good number of the grammars now being academies or trusts, whether we will see a grammar school somewhere trying to open a satellite on the edge of or even across an LEA boundary.

    When I was a kid, our (geographically small) LEA started to implement a masterplan whereby all the comprehensive schools in the middle of the LEA would close, and the remaining 10 schools would sit on the borders of neighbouring LEAs, attracting students from those places. It was barking mad, of course, but my point is that 'parking the tanks' in terms of school location is not unknown.

    On another note, hundred up :)
    Congratulations on your century ;).

    I'm expecting Lucy Powell to do another impression of Sideshow Bob in the field of rakes. It's another bear trap for Labour. If they oppose, then they're even less likely to recover in the South.

    I think Mr Innocent made a good point earlier. Labour don't, for now, want to be in power.

    Do you think amongst the wider electorate, support for grammar schools follows that clean a left/right split? I am PB Labour, and broadly sympathetic to rebuilding a grammar system, as long as we are innovative about how we do it, and don't just ape 1950s attitudes.

    My wife who is a floating voter with the occasionally vicious turn of Daily Mail phrasing, is dead against - scarred by a spell in a grammar school sixth form where she felt actively discriminated against compared to 'our girls'.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Can Mr Palmer explain the kinder kind of politics which publishes names of abstainers (unprecedented) in order to allow them to be subject to cyber bullying by the spitterati? It's well known that cyber bullying can result in suicide.
    We can see there is a policy of victimisation since 37 did not vote altogether but 21 singled out. Still, what with death and defenestration there will be a lot of safe seats up for grabs in 2020.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    I have been watching on BBC iPlayer the first part of Ian Hislop's documentary series on Victorian Do-Gooders. He talks about Robert Owen in Lanark and Robert Dawson in Birmingham and the social aims they had - of people looking after each other and the societies/cities they lived in - is an attractive and worthwhile one.

    Today is the last day it's on iPlayer so do catch it if you can.

    The question for the current Labour party is why their party - whose roots lie in people like Robert Owen and others like him - is currently so unattractive - indeed positively repellent to - people like me and SO and others who do think that we have a responsibility to help others worse off than ourselves and that we're all better off as a result.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,489

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:



    The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.

    Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones

    No. The Greens are significant in many middle England seats, where the middle-class Guardian/Independent vote is important - where they are irrelevant is Labour northern strongholds. If the Greens hadn't intervened in Broxtowe and say 60% of their supporters had gone Labour (anecdotally likely) we'd have held it in 2010 and the Tory majority would have halved in 2015. The Greens were a growing, existential threat to Labour in middle-class areas and now they aren't - it's one reason I voted Corbyn.
    Well, I suppose Corbyn will stop Green voters making a difference to the result in such seats. After all, the Greens don't normally get 15,000 votes, which will be the size of the Tory majority in e.g. Stroud at the next election.

    EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
    Overall, though, the Greens are strongest in places that are already good for Labour. Inner London, and other urban areas with lots of students and public sector workers.
    Indeed and Palmer draws a silly conclusion based on one variable changing as a result of Corbyn drawing back extreme left-wingers while ignoring other just as likely, variables of Labour losing the votes of moderates in middle England. It's similar to the nonsense about tax credits - take an extreme example and ignore all the other changes - tax allowance, NMW, very low inflation, increased employment, etc.
    Just running through the seats where the Greens won 10%+ in May. Islington N and S, Hackney N and S, Holborn & St. Pancras, Deptford, Camberwell, Bristol S & W, Oxford E, Norwich S, Sheffield SE, Liverpool Riverside, York, all solid for Labour.

    Then Totnes, Bath, and Buckingham, where Labour doesn't feature. And Brighton Pavilion, which is solidly left-wing.
    There is also the issue with the assumption that most Green voters (60% according to Nick P) were/are seeking the most left-wing, anti-austerity party and will therefore switch now that Corbyn is 'running' the show. I'm not convinced it's has been that high or will be. We'll see in next few years.
    Actually, I think that assumption is right. The environment is very important to them, of course, but it's only one of a range of left-wing concerns.
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