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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to anal

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to analysis

The US presidential election is the biggest single political betting event, which is excellent news for serious analysts and players because it probably means that there’s a lot of amateur, uninformed money to be matched against. Not every election will produce a 50/1 winner but there’s nearly always value to be found for the astute. How? Here are some tips:

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Comments

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,165
    HYUFD said:



    Oops - getting sucked back in!

    I have not argued that all children have identical potential. Social rigidities do cause some populations to remain further from the mean, but these are eroded over time, because of random variation. The more the barriers the longer the regression takes, and it does take generations, so pretty quick with fruitflies and Scot Nats but pretty slow elsewhere!

    Of course the opposite applies at the other end of the social scale as HL points out. This is why for a population to do well overall it needs to remove the other barriers to upward social mobility. Hence the importance of early years education and support. As Liz Kendall pointed out by time the 11+ comes around much of the opportunity is lost.



    You can still select later, Finland does at 16
    In my experience, primary schools can be (and usually are) good whatever the area or intake. My wife and I had no qualms about sending our daughter to the local non-religious primary school. But we had many qualms about sending her to one of the local comprehensive schools, even if it's the one that's held in such high regard that it's been allowed to open three branches. Comprehensive schools, even the good ones, have systemic faults that can ruin, or at least spoil, any child's education, and a school that's "good" today can easily change over the course of 3 or 4 years into a much less satisfactory place to be. (I speak as a secondary-school teacher.) So we're very happy that she qualified for grammar school, just like we did 35 years ago.

    Having said all that, we also tend to agree that a 3-school model (first, middle and high) is best of all, since there is no need to select until 14 years of age, but the three-school model has been all but abandoned in the UK for reasons of *cost* and *uniformity*!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586
    Just finished a busy week. What better way to unwind than a glass of wine and a Daily Politics marathon? None I tell you :D
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,165
    RobD said:

    Just finished a busy week. What better way to unwind than a glass of wine and a Daily Politics marathon? None I tell you :D

    Or catching up on the Apprentice? Though I'm somewhat underwhelmed - after so many years it's kind of same-old-same-old.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,075
    CNBC has caved to Trump and Carson - the debate will be limited to 2 hours (hurray!) and will have opening and closing statements (Boo! - we know what they stand for already).

    Clinton is hammering the House Benghazi investigation, which is irrelevant at this point to her email problem. Huma Abedin testified in secret before the committee today and Clinton will testify in public on Thursday. It is incredible but true that 7 previous Benghazi investigations failed to uncover her personal email server.

    The NY Times says the FBI is furious at POTUS comments on 60 Minutes on Sunday that there is no national security issue with Clinton's private email server. They think Obama has pre-judged their investigation, which is ongoing and widening.

    You don't want the FBI to be annoyed with you - you really don't.

    It looks like The Feds are the one thing that can take her out, either before or after she gets the nomination - more likely before if they decide to indict.

    The only real option is to tune in to what US outlets are saying (at which point, the usual rules apply: don’t be too reliant on any single source etc.).

    You are absolutely right - you need to follow US press coverage of the election, to understand the deeper currents of what is going on, and not just US polls. British media coverage of the US election is not very good and is viewed through a UK centric prism.

    I have been saying here for months that Clinton's greatest threat was her server and the FBI's investigation, and nobody believed me because her figures were good. It was was only when someone on PB - it might have been you - went over here and found just how much potential trouble she is facing that people on here started noticing.

    The US press had been all over it since March. Clinton, as always, claims it's a vast right wing conspiracy, but the NY Times and the Washington Post took the lead.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,732
    The United States of America will soon have its first woman President.

    This list of ten things is just a load of fluff and stuffing and kerfuffle and waffle. It doesn't matter what the opinion polls say, or what happens in the caucuses or primaries or conventions. It doesn't matter who is selected by either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party or the Green Party or the Trump Party.

    The only thing which matters is the Presidential Election itself, and when that happens in December 2016, the members of the Electoral College will vote unanimously for Roberta McCain.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,075
    edited October 2015
    Totally off - topic:

    someone mentioned the other day that Back to the Future II featured McFly and Brown time travelling to Oct 21, 2015.

    The movie also predicted that The Cubs would win the 2015 World Series against Miami, ( the Cubs have not won it in 107 years), and by implication there would be an MLB team in Miami, which there is today but wasn't when the movie was made.

    Getting back to reality - the Chicago Cubs are currently favorites to win the 2015 World Series. Honest injun. Cross my heart and hope to die, it is completely true.

    Possibly not entirely coincidentally, the Back to The Future 30th anniversary trilogy comes out Tuesday, and Back the the Future II returns to theaters for 1 day on Wednesday to mark the 21st October date.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13902322/back-future-screenwriter-bob-gale-discusses-prediction-cubs-2015-world-series-champions
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,075
    JohnLoony said:

    The United States of America will soon have its first woman President.

    This list of ten things is just a load of fluff and stuffing and kerfuffle and waffle. It doesn't matter what the opinion polls say, or what happens in the caucuses or primaries or conventions. It doesn't matter who is selected by either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party or the Green Party or the Trump Party.

    The only thing which matters is the Presidential Election itself, and when that happens in December 2016, the members of the Electoral College will vote unanimously for Roberta McCain.

    She's over 100 for John's sake!
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,536
    edited October 2015
    Writing essays like this always opens one to possible accusations of oracularity.
    But I for one would say this is a very good summary.
    Point one is particularly important.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    Tim_B said:

    CNBC has caved to Trump and Carson - the debate will be limited to 2 hours (hurray!) and will have opening and closing statements (Boo! - we know what they stand for already).

    Clinton is hammering the House Benghazi investigation, which is irrelevant at this point to her email problem. Huma Abedin testified in secret before the committee today and Clinton will testify in public on Thursday. It is incredible but true that 7 previous Benghazi investigations failed to uncover her personal email server.

    The NY Times says the FBI is furious at POTUS comments on 60 Minutes on Sunday that there is no national security issue with Clinton's private email server. They think Obama has pre-judged their investigation, which is ongoing and widening.

    You don't want the FBI to be annoyed with you - you really don't.

    It looks like The Feds are the one thing that can take her out, either before or after she gets the nomination - more likely before if they decide to indict.

    The only real option is to tune in to what US outlets are saying (at which point, the usual rules apply: don’t be too reliant on any single source etc.).

    You are absolutely right - you need to follow US press coverage of the election, to understand the deeper currents of what is going on, and not just US polls. British media coverage of the US election is not very good and is viewed through a UK centric prism.

    I have been saying here for months that Clinton's greatest threat was her server and the FBI's investigation, and nobody believed me because her figures were good. It was was only when someone on PB - it might have been you - went over here and found just how much potential trouble she is facing that people on here started noticing.

    The US press had been all over it since March. Clinton, as always, claims it's a vast right wing conspiracy, but the NY Times and the Washington Post took the lead.

    A pointer to Biden?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349
    11. Watch for the white smoke from Auchentennach Castle.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586
    JackW said:

    11. Watch for the white smoke from Auchentennach Castle.

    Surely that was for the successor to EMWNBPM? :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    O/T:

    A fantastic game of cricket going on at the moment in Abu Dhabi. Proper cricket, not any of that short attention-span nonsense.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn to become Vice President of CND.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 493
    Re 4 Money matters. Surely the time is right for a remake of the Producers, with a no hoper candidate raising more money than he/she needs or spends on an election run.

    Not sure Trump has seen the Producers - but he should remember two things - 1. Never use your own money, and 2. NEVER USE YOUR OWN MONEY.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    11. Watch for the white smoke from Auchentennach Castle.

    Surely that was for the successor to EMWNBPM? :D
    I regret that service was unavailable following the cull of Scottish LibDems at the general election.

    However following the recent yellow peril by-election victory in the Highlands normal service is to be resumed and unlike other areas of the UK the chimneys of Auchentennach will be going full blast.

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 493
    Can anyone tell me how I save password for Vanilla? I use Safari and even though I save the password when I log on, next time it doesn't recognise it, either from the saved one or if I type it in. I go through the bother of resetting - using the same password - after getting an email from rcs1000. Must be a way of Vanilla remembering what my password is
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    11. Watch for the white smoke from Auchentennach Castle.

    Surely that was for the successor to EMWNBPM? :D
    I regret that service was unavailable following the cull of Scottish LibDems at the general election.

    However following the recent yellow peril by-election victory in the Highlands normal service is to be resumed and unlike other areas of the UK the chimneys of Auchentennach will be going full blast.

    The smoke is made by incinerating Lib Dems? :D
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Any long shot tips at 50/1 or so for the election? No-one could ever be that prescient surely, without mentioning it occasionally...

    It does look like Hillary, and her time may have come at last.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,349
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    11. Watch for the white smoke from Auchentennach Castle.

    Surely that was for the successor to EMWNBPM? :D
    I regret that service was unavailable following the cull of Scottish LibDems at the general election.

    However following the recent yellow peril by-election victory in the Highlands normal service is to be resumed and unlike other areas of the UK the chimneys of Auchentennach will be going full blast.

    The smoke is made by incinerating Lib Dems? :D
    In the fine pie business there is no smoke without fire .... :smile:

  • I'm sure the fact that he's now Vice President of CND will only reinforce that view.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    78% of them don't? What more does he have to do to convince them?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    78% of them don't? What more does he have to do to convince them?
    54% don't. There were a lot of undecideds, and these were Labour voters.

    We shall see in the next few years how small core support really is.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    Completely off-topic, but there's clearly something very wrong with Alistair Cook. He's declared England's innings. Has the team doctor checked him over to diagnose the problem?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    Good grief, a wicket has fallen. Shan Masood must have kicked about 50 black cats before the match to fail twice on that pitch!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    England storming to victory in Abu Dhabi.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    AND ANOTHER! A double wicket maiden! Could Pakistan panic?

    Oh wait - I was forgetting Younus and Misbah.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    I don't know if it's just my Blackberry, but when I load via vanillaforums (which I do because it uses less bandwidth) it gives you half the title and the first paragraph, with a link to the rest, & the comments.

    On this occasion I loaded up to be presented with the thread "David Herdson's guide to" followed by the first half of the word "analysis"....

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    edited October 2015
    Charles said:

    I don't know if it's just my Blackberry, but when I load via vanillaforums (which I do because it uses less bandwidth) it gives you half the title and the first paragraph, with a link to the rest, & the comments.

    On this occasion I loaded up to be presented with the thread "David Herdson's guide to" followed by the first half of the word "analysis"....

    It's like that on my computer as well. I think you have to go to the full site to read the article, even though it's fearfully slow to load on a mobile.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Charles, but did you enjoy the guide?
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    I don't know if it's just my Blackberry, but when I load via vanillaforums (which I do because it uses less bandwidth) it gives you half the title and the first paragraph, with a link to the rest, & the comments.

    On this occasion I loaded up to be presented with the thread "David Herdson's guide to" followed by the first half of the word "analysis"....

    It's like that on my computer as well. I think you have to go to the full site to read the article, even though it's fearfully slow to load on a mobile.
    Yes! I was trying to upload a picture of the page but have no idea how!

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Razedabode..I thought she was more concerned about her potential customers on Tax Credits not being able to visit her salon..I mean.. what else could they possibly spend the money on..
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is to become the vice-president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND).

    It comes despite the party's policy to support renewing the Trident nuclear weapons system remaining unchanged at the recent Labour conference.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    The guy is an unnatural schizophrenic!
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Check out my new pic!!
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

  • Soon as I saw her on QT I knew something wasn't right.

    She fooled Mike though.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,521

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    Certainly not fit to be prime Ministers. . Weasle words from Corbyn butter no parsnips.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 614
    Remember Nick Clegg claiming that "this was a "dangerous fantasy that is simply not true" during the Clegg/Farage debate?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26843996

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    Check out my new pic!!

    Pure propaganda!
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    I disagree. I could privately agree with the aims of the CND and discuss my views within the shadow cabinet , or wait until a vote by the party membership. By actively making himself Vice President, all he's gone and done is set off another chain of events that'll emphasise how split the party is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Miss Jones, well, quite.

    Power is being eroded from nation states and falling into the gaping maw of the EU. It's happened on monetary policy, it's happened on migration, and now it appears to be happening militarily.

    The sooner the cabal of mewling eunuchs disintegrates, the better. The longer it takes, the more dreadful the collapse will be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    edited October 2015

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    Not really. You don't have to belong to an organisation to support its aims, but you do have to support the aims of an organisation in order to be a very senior member.

    Thatcher was outspokenly in favour of keeping nuclear weapons - but then, so was her party. Corbyn is making a plain statement that he believes his own party to be wrong on the issue, and CND are (understandably and correctly from their point of view) milking his support for all it's worth and talking about converting the Labour party. The small snag is, I don't see how that's going to happen. The Labour leadership, apart from the leader and his allies, are aware that for good or ill Trident is if not popular at least supported by the majority of the population, and CND are not.

    I really can't think of a precedent for a political party having one policy and its leader having the polar opposite policy. Even Balfour in 1906 was partially in favour of tariffs (and Balfour could with justice point out that if he was not in step with his party, he was at least rather closer to the electorate than they were).

    EDIT - possibly Gaitskell in the 50s on this issue - but that was a fairly even split that he managed to reverse fairly soon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314

    Miss Jones, well, quite.

    Power is being eroded from nation states and falling into the gaping maw of the EU. It's happened on monetary policy, it's happened on migration, and now it appears to be happening militarily.

    The sooner the cabal of mewling eunuchs disintegrates, the better. The longer it takes, the more dreadful the collapse will be.

    Mr Dancer, what have you got against eunuchs? :wink:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. Doethur, they were an integral part of the downfall of the Han Dynasty.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    edited October 2015
    Useless stat of the day 1: it is Mohammed Hafeez's 35th birthday. I hadn't realised he was as old as that. It's quite an elderly batting line-up the Pakistan team have - Hafeez (35) Malik (33) Younis (37) Misbah (41) - they're all getting close to the end of their careers. That's going to leave some big holes in their run-scoring in 3-4 years unless the younger batsmen finally learn the art of the forward defensive.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've been using This Sceptered Isle to fall asleep to, and hoping that in a few years I'll have subliminally absorbed 1/10th of your historical knowledge.
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    Not really. You don't have to belong to an organisation to support its aims, but you do have to support the aims of an organisation in order to be a very senior member.

    Thatcher was outspokenly in favour of keeping nuclear weapons - but then, so was her party. Corbyn is making a plain statement that he believes his own party to be wrong on the issue, and CND are (understandably and correctly from their point of view) milking his support for all it's worth and talking about converting the Labour party. The small snag is, I don't see how that's going to happen. The Labour leadership, apart from the leader and his allies, are aware that for good or ill Trident is if not popular at least supported by the majority of the population, and CND are not.

    I really can't think of a precedent for a political party having one policy and its leader having the polar opposite policy. Even Balfour in 1906 was partially in favour of tariffs (and Balfour could with justice point out that if he was not in step with his party, he was at least rather closer to the electorate than they were).

    EDIT - possibly Gaitskell in the 50s on this issue - but that was a fairly even split that he managed to reverse fairly soon.
  • LucyJones said:

    Remember Nick Clegg claiming that "this was a "dangerous fantasy that is simply not true" during the Clegg/Farage debate?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26843996

    Good point Miss Jones, I had forgotten that particular snippet.
  • May I aska few questions on US elections please which I do follow but still need further guidance please.

    1. Do both major parties now consider make up of votes in Electoral College fair or is it perhaps slightly biased to Democrats? Was last change to EC 2012?
    2. Do Republicans still consider Precinct (constituency) boundaries favour Democrats for the General Election also in November 2016?
    3.Approximately how many primaries are Winner Takes All. I know key one is California.
    4. Does each state set its own rules for the state legislature and governors elections and timing or are they also in November of years with even number?

    Thanking you

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    edited October 2015

    I've been using This Sceptered Isle to fall asleep to, and hoping that in a few years I'll have subliminally absorbed 1/10th of your historical knowledge.

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    Not really. You don't have to belong to an organisation to support its aims, but you do have to support the aims of an organisation in order to be a very senior member.

    Thatcher was outspokenly in favour of keeping nuclear weapons - but then, so was her party. Corbyn is making a plain statement that he believes his own party to be wrong on the issue, and CND are (understandably and correctly from their point of view) milking his support for all it's worth and talking about converting the Labour party. The small snag is, I don't see how that's going to happen. The Labour leadership, apart from the leader and his allies, are aware that for good or ill Trident is if not popular at least supported by the majority of the population, and CND are not.

    I really can't think of a precedent for a political party having one policy and its leader having the polar opposite policy. Even Balfour in 1906 was partially in favour of tariffs (and Balfour could with justice point out that if he was not in step with his party, he was at least rather closer to the electorate than they were).

    EDIT - possibly Gaitskell in the 50s on this issue - but that was a fairly even split that he managed to reverse fairly soon.
    Why thank you Miss Plato.:smiley: Just don't mention that when the good Mr Wiseman is around. We don't want to cause the poor man any more pain, it would be unkind when he is still battling his mouth ulcers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    An accidental consequence of Jeremy Corbyn's rise to power may be an increase in the authority of select committees:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/10/prominent-former-frontbenchers-fill-select-committee-roles/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Good day to you all from the cricket. Pakistan 35/2 at lunch, still 40 runs behind. It couldn't actually happen, could it? There is some turn this morning which certainly wasn't expected after 4 days of the world's flattest driest most boring pitch.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Foiled by DRS!!

    Rashid has Hafeez caught behind and it's given not out... England review and there's a nick... No snicko or hotspot...

    NOT OUT!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    On topic. Good piece Mr Herdson. It is true that the USA is a very different place to the UK even if we look the same and speak the same language

    Off topic, is Corbyn trying to show the world how split his party is on Trident? Surely there will be a vote on this in Parliament before Christmas.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Masoods played on... I was out exactly that way for a 2nd ball duck this summer... And the bowler was a girl... Not that that should matter, but I got some stick
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Soon as I saw her on QT I knew something wasn't right.

    She fooled Mike though.
    Indeed. If, by her own statement, she is not earning any money then how can she be above any threshold.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314
    antifrank said:

    An accidental consequence of Jeremy Corbyn's rise to power may be an increase in the authority of select committees:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/10/prominent-former-frontbenchers-fill-select-committee-roles/

    Jeremy Hunt will not be looking forward to meeting that Health select committee, and I'm guessing Osborne and Hands aren't too thrilled at the thought of having to debate with Rachel Reeves either.

    But if Labour can only oppose through select committees, how are they supposed to have any sort of electoral impact? Nobody pays much attention to their work, invaluable though it is, except in unusual circumstances (e.g. phone hacking).

    It would be helpful to the nation, but not to the Labour party, and at some point for the sake of the nation the Labour party will have to be a viable political force again.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,988
    Dadge said:

    RobD said:

    Just finished a busy week. What better way to unwind than a glass of wine and a Daily Politics marathon? None I tell you :D

    Or catching up on the Apprentice? Though I'm somewhat underwhelmed - after so many years it's kind of same-old-same-old.
    Fake garbage
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Miss Jones, well, quite.

    Power is being eroded from nation states and falling into the gaping maw of the EU. It's happened on monetary policy, it's happened on migration, and now it appears to be happening militarily.

    The sooner the cabal of mewling eunuchs disintegrates, the better. The longer it takes, the more dreadful the collapse will be.

    The EU want to rebuild the European army that the Nazis formed with the Wehrmacht. In WW2, in all the occupied countries, the Nazis asked for volunteers to fight the Russians. They recruited many thousands; of course the fools ended up mostly dead or fighting the western allied forces or even their on people.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    Certainly not fit to be prime Ministers. . Weasle words from Corbyn butter no parsnips.
    This - and the other comments on what I wrote a few minutes ago - really comes down to the argument I had with David Herdson a while back: lefties are unrealistic, and right-wingers (or anyone else who wants to govern - if they govern for long enough they'll become right-wingers) are immoral. There's a good piece on this in the current "Staggers" by Geoff Mulgan. Corbyn, and, presumptively, Labour's membership, wants to head a movement, not to be a PM-in-waiting. That's his privilege, surely.



  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,988
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    11. Watch for the white smoke from Auchentennach Castle.

    Surely that was for the successor to EMWNBPM? :D
    I regret that service was unavailable following the cull of Scottish LibDems at the general election.

    However following the recent yellow peril by-election victory in the Highlands normal service is to be resumed and unlike other areas of the UK the chimneys of Auchentennach will be going full blast.

    The smoke is made by incinerating Lib Dems? :D
    Not enough of them to produce any smoke
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. K, didn't Napoleon try something similar?

    If those two examples are a guide, it'll end with the Russians winning.

    The Apprentice: I used to watch that, but after 5 series or so felt it was all too familiar, and got bored.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    You are stretching a point. He is becoming vice chairman. How many other organisations do you want to suggest previous tory leaders oppose simply because they do not join them. There are an I finite number of organisations I do not join, do I oppose them all????
    It makes you wonder why he stepped down from chairman of Stop The War.
    As far as I am concerned he is a traitor and a lying one too. All told he is clearly determined to subvert the labour party with his fellow travellers and his party within a party and turn it into something totally different. Given half a chance he will destroy Britain.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    MikeK said:

    Miss Jones, well, quite.

    Power is being eroded from nation states and falling into the gaping maw of the EU. It's happened on monetary policy, it's happened on migration, and now it appears to be happening militarily.

    The sooner the cabal of mewling eunuchs disintegrates, the better. The longer it takes, the more dreadful the collapse will be.

    The EU want to rebuild the European army that the Nazis formed with the Wehrmacht. In WW2, in all the occupied countries, the Nazis asked for volunteers to fight the Russians. They recruited many thousands; of course the fools ended up mostly dead or fighting the western allied forces or even their on people.
    You are thick beyond belief.
  • isam said:

    Foiled by DRS!!

    Rashid has Hafeez caught behind and it's given not out... England review and there's a nick... No snicko or hotspot...

    NOT OUT!

    Quite like Rashid but they need to get Mason Crane in the team as soon as possible, he could be our very own Shane Warne.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn apparently believes in democracy, but my mere association he's basically decided the policy for them.
    No more so than previous leaders - or indeed leaders of other parties - who choose not to join CND.

    If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.

    Not really. You don't have to belong to an organisation to support its aims, but you do have to support the aims of an organisation in order to be a very senior member.

    Thatcher was outspokenly in favour of keeping nuclear weapons - but then, so was her party. Corbyn is making a plain statement that he believes his own party to be wrong on the issue, and CND are (understandably and correctly from their point of view) milking his support for all it's worth and talking about converting the Labour party. The small snag is, I don't see how that's going to happen. The Labour leadership, apart from the leader and his allies, are aware that for good or ill Trident is if not popular at least supported by the majority of the population, and CND are not.

    I really can't think of a precedent for a political party having one policy and its leader having the polar opposite policy. Even Balfour in 1906 was partially in favour of tariffs (and Balfour could with justice point out that if he was not in step with his party, he was at least rather closer to the electorate than they were).

    EDIT - possibly Gaitskell in the 50s on this issue - but that was a fairly even split that he managed to reverse fairly soon.
    Lansbury, who Bevin accused of "hawking his conscience from conference to conference, asking to be told what to do with it"?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited October 2015
    MikeK said:

    Miss Jones, well, quite.

    Power is being eroded from nation states and falling into the gaping maw of the EU. It's happened on monetary policy, it's happened on migration, and now it appears to be happening militarily.

    The sooner the cabal of mewling eunuchs disintegrates, the better. The longer it takes, the more dreadful the collapse will be.

    The EU want to rebuild the European army that the Nazis formed with the Wehrmacht. In WW2, in all the occupied countries, the Nazis asked for volunteers to fight the Russians. They recruited many thousands; of course the fools ended up mostly dead or fighting the western allied forces or even their on people.
    Good morning all. This is a ludicrous overstatement of the case. The Heer (the German army) predated the Nazis. There were plenty of anti-communists in occupied Europe (hell, the Germans had plenty of Russians either fighting with them or providing support services [Hiwis]).

    There are elements of the EU that want to create a USE and hard power is a necessary adjunct to their goal. Those elements haven't gone away and are playing a long game. The story of the Eurozone only has two endings; either it becomes a fully unified political entity or it falls apart. If it doesn't fall apart, political union will grind on, however long it takes.

    This is what bothers me about our current pseudo-negotiation. There is no status quo. However, we leavers will do ourselves no favours by comparing modern political initiatives with the Nazis. It's the remainers who are harking back to the 20th century :).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    Another cracker by DavidH - it's a very good guide.

    I'd add

    11. The US media likes change and drama, just like our media. Be prepared for the position to change radically, as one or another story is blown up as the new highlight. We are more than 3 months away from a single votes being cast. In betting terms, that means don't stake the house on anyone right now.

    With regard to Biden, the general view has been that he's had a family tragedy and he needs to be cut some slack to decide in his own time. But I wonder if the chronic indecision is not starting to do real damage to his prospects. It's not so much that it's taking him forever to decide, as that a series of "he will decide by..." deadlines have slid by without a decision. He might be best off saying that at present that for all the familiar reasons he doesn't feel able to plunge himself into the primary battle. That leaves open the possibility that if Clinton implodes he could be the rescue candidate for the Democrats.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    chestnut said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956

    Corbyn to become Vice President of CND.

    A clear and present danger.
    Or
    Clear Ndpresent Danger.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    Toms said:

    Writing essays like this always opens one to possible accusations of oracularity.
    But I for one would say this is a very good summary.
    Point one is particularly important.

    That's why it's point one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,314



    Lansbury, who Bevin accused of "hawking his conscience from conference to conference [body to body], asking to be told what to do with it"?

    I don't think Lansbury was as far out of step with either Labour opinion or public opinion as Corbyn is. Remember, Baldwin admitted he held back from rearmament because he was afraid it would cost him the 1935 election via the popularity of the Peace Pledge League (hence Churchill's famous index entry, 'admits putting party before country'). Bevin was right, of course, as he usually was, but Lansbury up to that point had got a lot of applause and there are those who argue that without Bevin's speech he might have won the vote (crushing though the final margin against Lansbury's resolution was).

    He might still be a good parallel to Corbyn though, as several people here have said before - an elderly, amiable, not overly intelligent and unambitious leader who, due to force of circumstance, came to the top by accident and did most of his campaigning outside Parliament. And was dethroned by his party? Well, let's wait and see.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    To be honest I am not sure that Mr Herdson, wise though he is, is adding greatly to what we already know about the US election.
    And in one respect I think he is downright misleading.
    Trump.
    It would appear that Trump has spent very little, despite his boasts. Trump is in fact hoping to make money out of the election because he makes money by selling his name.
    I suspect that despite his boasts he is the one candidate who does not actually have the money to waste.
  • MikeK said:

    Miss Jones, well, quite.

    Power is being eroded from nation states and falling into the gaping maw of the EU. It's happened on monetary policy, it's happened on migration, and now it appears to be happening militarily.

    The sooner the cabal of mewling eunuchs disintegrates, the better. The longer it takes, the more dreadful the collapse will be.

    The EU want to rebuild the European army that the Nazis formed with the Wehrmacht. In WW2, in all the occupied countries, the Nazis asked for volunteers to fight the Russians. They recruited many thousands; of course the fools ended up mostly dead or fighting the western allied forces or even their on people.
    Godwins law so early in the thread.
    Although when I posted the link yesterday re the Luftwaffe flying over Yorkshire on exercise I did find myself singing 'Ten German Bombers'

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    ydoethur said:



    Lansbury, who Bevin accused of "hawking his conscience from conference to conference [body to body], asking to be told what to do with it"?

    I don't think Lansbury was as far out of step with either Labour opinion or public opinion as Corbyn is. Remember, Baldwin admitted he held back from rearmament because he was afraid it would cost him the 1935 election via the popularity of the Peace Pledge League (hence Churchill's famous index entry, 'admits putting party before country'). Bevin was right, of course, as he usually was, but Lansbury up to that point had got a lot of applause and there are those who argue that without Bevin's speech he might have won the vote (crushing though the final margin against Lansbury's resolution was).

    He might still be a good parallel to Corbyn though, as several people here have said before - an elderly, amiable, not overly intelligent and unambitious leader who, due to force of circumstance, came to the top by accident and did most of his campaigning outside Parliament. And was dethroned by his party? Well, let's wait and see.
    I've been re-reading Robert Graves' "I Claudius". For what it's worth, I fancy a resemblance between Corbyn and Claudius; both of them thrust into an unexpected spotlight. I wonder if he's enjoying it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,144
    John_M said:

    ydoethur said:



    Lansbury, who Bevin accused of "hawking his conscience from conference to conference [body to body], asking to be told what to do with it"?

    I don't think Lansbury was as far out of step with either Labour opinion or public opinion as Corbyn is. Remember, Baldwin admitted he held back from rearmament because he was afraid it would cost him the 1935 election via the popularity of the Peace Pledge League (hence Churchill's famous index entry, 'admits putting party before country'). Bevin was right, of course, as he usually was, but Lansbury up to that point had got a lot of applause and there are those who argue that without Bevin's speech he might have won the vote (crushing though the final margin against Lansbury's resolution was).

    He might still be a good parallel to Corbyn though, as several people here have said before - an elderly, amiable, not overly intelligent and unambitious leader who, due to force of circumstance, came to the top by accident and did most of his campaigning outside Parliament. And was dethroned by his party? Well, let's wait and see.
    I've been re-reading Robert Graves' "I Claudius". For what it's worth, I fancy a resemblance between Corbyn and Claudius; both of them thrust into an unexpected spotlight. I wonder if he's enjoying it?
    And who the 21st century Messalina is, not to mention Nero?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,106

    Soon as I saw her on QT I knew something wasn't right.

    She fooled Mike though.

    I'm sure the BBC will be diligent in making sure this latest aspect of the story is widely reported.

    It would have probably been better if they had done a bit more fact checking yesterday however before promoting the story in the first place.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Mr. M, Claudius was approached by others rather than seeking power (even if Corbyn was surprised to get it).

    Corbyn's a bit more like Julian the Apostate in that regard (minus the intelligence and achievements, of course).

    Mr. Carnyx, Watson could be Nero.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Belly's England career may come to an end on the back of his inability to take a catch. That was a seriously hard chance but added to the misses in the first...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Excellent fielding by Stokes.

    Still probably going to be a dull draw but a real Freddy makes the bails fly moment.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,536

    Toms said:

    Writing essays like this always opens one to possible accusations of oracularity.
    But I for one would say this is a very good summary.
    Point one is particularly important.

    That's why it's point one.
    smiley face. Yes, although it could also have been the bottom line at 10.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,488

    Mr. M, Claudius was approached by others rather than seeking power (even if Corbyn was surprised to get it).

    Corbyn's a bit more like Julian the Apostate in that regard (minus the intelligence and achievements, of course).

    Mr. Carnyx, Watson could be Nero.

    Diane Abbott could be Messalina.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    That was a silly run out. Are Pakistan going to crumble?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Claudius was actually clever (according to Graves anyway) although he hid it well. The comparison falls apart on that alone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Also worth noting there was a second Cladius, in the 3rd century. He was one of the earliest, perhaps the first, Danubian general-emperors whose numbers also included Aurelian and Diocletian, who finally resolved the Crisis of the Third Century through military skill.

    Claudius Gothicus was his epithet, because he slew rather a lot of Goths. Only reigned a year or so, dying by disease, I think. His younger brother, whose name escapes me, tried to succeed him, but Aurelian stomped on that ambition sharpish.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 4,144
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. M, Claudius was approached by others rather than seeking power (even if Corbyn was surprised to get it).

    Corbyn's a bit more like Julian the Apostate in that regard (minus the intelligence and achievements, of course).

    Mr. Carnyx, Watson could be Nero.

    Diane Abbott could be Messalina.
    Oh come, let's be fair. She's on Mr Corbyn's side of the overall argument, whch Valeria Messalina certainly was not in Claudius's case.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    edited October 2015
    DavidL said:

    Claudius was actually clever (according to Graves anyway) although he hid it well. The comparison falls apart on that alone.

    I'm feeling charitable this morning. You never know, the entire shadow cabinet may be concealing their hidden genius from us all, only to unleash it during the election campaign :).

    That said, for a clever man, Claudius was still daft. Agrippina would have been feeding the lions in short order were I in his shoes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Sandpit said:

    That was a silly run out. Are Pakistan going to crumble?

    Yes and no. Not on this pitch.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    Sandpit said:

    That was a silly run out. Are Pakistan going to crumble?

    Depends on whose managed to get a bet on!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    edited October 2015
    Surely Jeremy Corbyn is like Julian the Apostate? A man of strong principles thrust into the top job who energetically sought to impose them on everyone else, only to find out that they were at least forty years out of date. They even share the same initials.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    ydoethur said:



    Lansbury, who Bevin accused of "hawking his conscience from conference to conference [body to body], asking to be told what to do with it"?

    I don't think Lansbury was as far out of step with either Labour opinion or public opinion as Corbyn is. Remember, Baldwin admitted he held back from rearmament because he was afraid it would cost him the 1935 election via the popularity of the Peace Pledge League (hence Churchill's famous index entry, 'admits putting party before country'). Bevin was right, of course, as he usually was, but Lansbury up to that point had got a lot of applause and there are those who argue that without Bevin's speech he might have won the vote (crushing though the final margin against Lansbury's resolution was).

    He might still be a good parallel to Corbyn though, as several people here have said before - an elderly, amiable, not overly intelligent and unambitious leader who, due to force of circumstance, came to the top by accident and did most of his campaigning outside Parliament. And was dethroned by his party? Well, let's wait and see.
    Yes, I agree the parallel stands up well. You're right about Lansbury not being that far from Labour opinion - though what closeness there was was not deep - but I think the same could be said of Corbyn. With Labour, there are now four groups in two pairs, with the leadership and membership on one side, and MPs and voters on the other.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,488
    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. M, Claudius was approached by others rather than seeking power (even if Corbyn was surprised to get it).

    Corbyn's a bit more like Julian the Apostate in that regard (minus the intelligence and achievements, of course).

    Mr. Carnyx, Watson could be Nero.

    Diane Abbott could be Messalina.
    Oh come, let's be fair. She's on Mr Corbyn's side of the overall argument, whch Valeria Messalina certainly was not in Claudius's case.

    Caroline Noakes, then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    Idly browsing the rugby markets to see if anything leaps out. Matches today are at 4pm and 8pm.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    I never really look at match odds markets in football, but did this week and think Everton and West Ham look nice bets
  • isam said:

    I never really look at match odds markets in football, but did this week and think Everton and West Ham look nice bets

    Is that to win?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Interesting analysis. At the moment polls suggest Clinton v Trump but as you say still a way to go.

    On 1968 opinion is divided on whether Wallace cost Humphrey the election
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