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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes: Osborne 6% behind Boris as “best PM” and just a thi

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes: Osborne 6% behind Boris as “best PM” and just a third say that cutting tax credits is necessary

Conservatives have 13 point lead over Labour in new Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday Poll pic.twitter.com/zTgDXle97z

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Comments

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    First
  • Not even a dead cat bounce
  • The last two supplementaries should cheer up the Jezuits.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    Tories will be very happy with this poll. Not just the enormous lead but signs that the tax credit stuff won't cut through (just as some of us predicted).

    Could Corbyn be the first Labour leader never to record a poll lead? Surely at some point he will nudge ahead.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,925
    What a start for Jeremy Corbyn and his kinder, gentler politics. Given the way his backers have gone after Mike Gapes highlights how Labour have lost the plot.

    Worst ever Labour leader ratings, 13% behind in poll as well.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    edited October 2015
    Six months of this kind of polling and Labour MPs will have to make a move against Le Corb.
  • An equally valid headline would be "just a third say that a Labour government would not lead to economic chaos" with a red highlight around that claim.

    But 13% government lead during an opposition leaders honeymoon period. Wow.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,574
    edited October 2015
    SeanT said:

    Tories will be very happy with this poll. Not just the enormous lead but signs that the tax credit stuff won't cut through (just as some of us predicted).

    Could Corbyn be the first Labour leader never to record a poll lead? Surely at some point he will nudge ahead.

    Absolutely - a lot of negative historicity this week and the Tories increase their lead. Nuff said.


    Oops - publicity!
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.
  • Just wait until the EU referendum

    @tom_ComRes: 2 in 3 Britons see Corbyn's Labour Party as divided. Compare: more think Cameron's Tories are united than divided

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CReDL0nXAAAC_j4.jpg
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    42/29 shows the scale of Corbyn's challange, irrespective of how much Twitter loves him.

    Interesting set of supplementaries from the IOS and the Mirror. All of them have lots of don't knows.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,197
    Meh
  • SeanT said:

    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.

    Stop being so negative.

    If marginal voters didn't like Miliband, then they will love Corbyn.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589

    The last two supplementaries should cheer up the Jezuits.

    The Society of Jezuits, founded, of course, by St Jeremy of Disloyola.

    Thangyou. I'm here all week.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    SeanT said:

    Six months of this kind of polling and Labour MPs will have to make a move against Le Corb.

    As I said on the previous thread:

    "Labour back benchers do not challenge their leaders no matter how pathetic, mental or just plain useless they are. I mean 200 of them voted for McDonnell and Corbyn's completely incoherent position just this week."

    SLAB followed their leadership over the cliff with barely a dissenting voice. Nick still gives an interesting insight into how these people think. It is hopeless.

    Only ill health or a collapse of confidence on the part of Corbyn himself is going to change this.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    Jonathan said:

    Meh

    Cheer up. This is a good poll for you. This kind of polling must concentrate minds in Labour. MPs will have to oust the Jezbollah. They have no choice.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    "ComRes Cameron & Osborne have and 19 point lead over Corbyn & McDonnell on who is trusted more on the economy"

    Work to be done there. Should be at least 30.

    That said, given the "would lead to economic chaos" answer, those who aren't in the Corbyn/McDonnell camp are very firmly against them.

    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975

    An equally valid headline would be "just a third say that a Labour government would not lead to economic chaos" with a red highlight around that claim.

    But 13% government lead during an opposition leaders honeymoon period. Wow.

    [my italics]

    It's not though. It's a government's post-election honeymoon period.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    SeanT said:

    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.

    Stop being so negative.

    If marginal voters didn't like Miliband, then they will love Corbyn.
    Shhh. Don't you know this is 2015 now, the next election will be decided by counting retweets and hashtags #EvilBabyEatingToryScum ;)
  • The Tories have had a pretty crap week too. These numbers would be very different if we actually had a credible opposition
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    Jonathan said:

    Meh

    Could be worse. There are four Labour voters for every Lib Dem.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    Six months of this kind of polling and Labour MPs will have to make a move against Le Corb.

    As I said on the previous thread:

    "Labour back benchers do not challenge their leaders no matter how pathetic, mental or just plain useless they are. I mean 200 of them voted for McDonnell and Corbyn's completely incoherent position just this week."

    SLAB followed their leadership over the cliff with barely a dissenting voice. Nick still gives an interesting insight into how these people think. It is hopeless.

    Only ill health or a collapse of confidence on the part of Corbyn himself is going to change this.
    I know what you mean, but I demur. The Labour party very nearly got rid of Brown, and he had serious support amongst MPs, and he wasn't clearly leading Labour to total oblivion.

    Yes, Labour MPs are spineless dorks, like NPXMP, but like NPXMP, they are also careerists. Corbyn could end their careers. This will focus attention.

    PS I don't want to be mean to Nick all the time, it's boring. But his support for the odious Corbyn/McDonnelll makes it unavoidable.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    “Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to National Security”

    Can’t remember this question ever being asked of previous party leaders - Is it a JC special..?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jonathan said:

    Meh

    To the 45% economic chaos?

    or the 19 point economically trusted lead?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited October 2015
    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.

    Stop being so negative.

    If marginal voters didn't like Miliband, then they will love Corbyn.
    Shhh. Don't you know this is 2015 now, the next election will be decided by counting retweets and hashtags #EvilBabyEatingToryScum ;)
    It was funny, I accidentally opened up a thread from the election campaign.

    The Tory activists like Marquee Mark, Notme and myself who were out there were seeing the Ed Miliband drag factor out there, whilst twitter was jizzing itself inside out over the Milifandom.

    Edit: Also Corbyn will get a boost when Russell Brand endorses him.
  • An equally valid headline would be "just a third say that a Labour government would not lead to economic chaos" with a red highlight around that claim.

    But 13% government lead during an opposition leaders honeymoon period. Wow.

    [my italics]

    It's not though. It's a government's post-election honeymoon period.
    Back in October 2010 the scores on the doors with ComRes were

    Con 41 and Lab 39
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited October 2015
    Dreadful poll for Labour. To put it into context 29% is what the Tories polled on average in IDS' first months in charge. Confirms Corbyn is Labour's IDS and even though IDS got a few poll leads in 2003 he was doomed once the Tories came third in Brent, Corbyn is marking time
  • SeanT said:

    Six months of this kind of polling and Labour MPs will have to make a move against Le Corb.

    But they have no cojones. Due to AWS.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Just wait until the EU referendum

    @tom_ComRes: 2 in 3 Britons see Corbyn's Labour Party as divided. Compare: more think Cameron's Tories are united than divided

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CReDL0nXAAAC_j4.jpg

    55% now back right wing parties. That's almost a 2:1 lead over Labour.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    “Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to National Security”

    Can’t remember this question ever being asked of previous party leaders - Is it a JC special..?

    Everything about JC is special. He is breaking new ground.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The whole cemetery worth of skeletons doesn't seem to have provoked Labour MPs into action - it's all so surreal.

    Any other leader of any party bar would've been forced out for just one or two of them - Jezza has coffins worth and somehow it's just reset the unacceptable limbo bar to under the barrel.

    I honestly can't comprehend it. Even being found in bed with a dead boy wouldn't change things. Watson would find a way to blame Murdoch for it.

    “Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to National Security”

    Can’t remember this question ever being asked of previous party leaders - Is it a JC special..?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    “Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to National Security”

    Can’t remember this question ever being asked of previous party leaders - Is it a JC special..?

    No previous party leader ever invited terrorists as guests to Parliament, the week after those same terrorists tried to assassinate the PM and half the government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    The Tories have had a pretty crap week too. These numbers would be very different if we actually had a credible opposition

    Yes, there is a warning there. 33% believe that McDonnell would not lead to economic chaos. 30% think Corbyn is turning out to be a strong leader. I mean really? Really?

    What they are really saying is that they don't like the Tories, they really don't like the Tories and they will vote for anyone else who can stop them. That hostility runs deep and it gives Labour a base for as long as they are the principal opposition. Of course in Scotland that is no longer the case.
  • Sean_F said:

    Just wait until the EU referendum

    @tom_ComRes: 2 in 3 Britons see Corbyn's Labour Party as divided. Compare: more think Cameron's Tories are united than divided

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CReDL0nXAAAC_j4.jpg

    55% now back right wing parties. That's almost a 2:1 lead over Labour.
    If only we had AV instead of FPTP, we could have a 1000 year right wing hegemony in this country.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,925
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s58 seconds ago
    On the state of the Labour Party:
    United: 16%
    Divided: 64%
    (via ComRes / 14 - 15 Oct)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    edited October 2015

    The whole cemetery worth of skeletons doesn't seem to have provoked Labour MPs into action - it's all so surreal.

    Any other leader of any party bar would've been forced out for just one or two of them - Jezza has coffins worth and somehow it's just reset the unacceptable limbo bar to under the barrel.

    I honestly can't comprehend it. Even being found in bed with a dead boy wouldn't change things. Watson would find a way to blame Murdoch for it.

    “Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to National Security”

    Can’t remember this question ever being asked of previous party leaders - Is it a JC special..?

    Stockholm syndrome, or capture-bonding, is a psychological phenomenon in which hostages express empathy and sympathy and have positive feelings toward their captors, sometimes to the point of defending and identifying with the captors. These feelings are generally considered irrational in light of the danger or risk endured by the victims, who essentially mistake a lack of abuse from their captors for an act of kindness.

    Stockholm syndrome can be seen as a form of traumatic bonding, which does not necessarily require a hostage scenario, but which describes "strong emotional ties that develop between two persons where one person intermittently harasses, beats, threatens, abuses, or intimidates the other." One commonly used hypothesis to explain the effect of Stockholm syndrome is based on Freudian theory. It suggests that the bonding is the individual's response to trauma in becoming a victim. Identifying with the aggressor is one way that the ego defends itself. When a victim believes the same values as the aggressor, they cease to be perceived as a threat.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :open_mouth:
    dr_spyn said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s58 seconds ago
    On the state of the Labour Party:
    United: 16%
    Divided: 64%
    (via ComRes / 14 - 15 Oct)

  • Keiran on this poll

    If this poll is 'right' then Labour plus every Green and Lib Dem vote still leaves the party behind the Cons tonight
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    Six months of this kind of polling and Labour MPs will have to make a move against Le Corb.

    As I said on the previous thread:

    "Labour back benchers do not challenge their leaders no matter how pathetic, mental or just plain useless they are. I mean 200 of them voted for McDonnell and Corbyn's completely incoherent position just this week."

    SLAB followed their leadership over the cliff with barely a dissenting voice. Nick still gives an interesting insight into how these people think. It is hopeless.

    Only ill health or a collapse of confidence on the part of Corbyn himself is going to change this.
    I know what you mean, but I demur. The Labour party very nearly got rid of Brown, and he had serious support amongst MPs, and he wasn't clearly leading Labour to total oblivion.

    Yes, Labour MPs are spineless dorks, like NPXMP, but like NPXMP, they are also careerists. Corbyn could end their careers. This will focus attention.

    PS I don't want to be mean to Nick all the time, it's boring. But his support for the odious Corbyn/McDonnelll makes it unavoidable.
    Agreed there has been a swing of 3% from Labour to the Tories since May on this poll meaning more Labour MPs could lose their seats. Bring back Ed, all is forgiven
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    Six months of this kind of polling and Labour MPs will have to make a move against Le Corb.

    As I said on the previous thread:

    "Labour back benchers do not challenge their leaders no matter how pathetic, mental or just plain useless they are. I mean 200 of them voted for McDonnell and Corbyn's completely incoherent position just this week."

    SLAB followed their leadership over the cliff with barely a dissenting voice. Nick still gives an interesting insight into how these people think. It is hopeless.

    Only ill health or a collapse of confidence on the part of Corbyn himself is going to change this.
    I know what you mean, but I demur. The Labour party very nearly got rid of Brown, and he had serious support amongst MPs, and he wasn't clearly leading Labour to total oblivion.

    Yes, Labour MPs are spineless dorks, like NPXMP, but like NPXMP, they are also careerists. Corbyn could end their careers. This will focus attention.

    PS I don't want to be mean to Nick all the time, it's boring. But his support for the odious Corbyn/McDonnelll makes it unavoidable.
    When you have a vegan in charge of agriculture I don't fancy your chances of finding a back bone. But we shall see.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    DavidL said:

    The Tories have had a pretty crap week too. These numbers would be very different if we actually had a credible opposition

    Yes, there is a warning there. 33% believe that McDonnell would not lead to economic chaos. 30% think Corbyn is turning out to be a strong leader. I mean really? Really?

    What they are really saying is that they don't like the Tories, they really don't like the Tories and they will vote for anyone else who can stop them. That hostility runs deep and it gives Labour a base for as long as they are the principal opposition. Of course in Scotland that is no longer the case.
    Core Vote Corbyn. He energises the anti-Tory voters. And they are probably 30% of the population. But they don't necessarily VOTE.

    So he should be guaranteed between 25-30% at a GE, no more and no less?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490
    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.

    Stop being so negative.

    If marginal voters didn't like Miliband, then they will love Corbyn.
    Shhh. Don't you know this is 2015 now, the next election will be decided by counting retweets and hashtags #EvilBabyEatingToryScum ;)
    It was funny, I accidentally opened up a thread from the election campaign.

    The Tory activists like Marquee Mark, Notme and myself who were out there were seeing the Ed Miliband drag factor out there, whilst twitter was jizzing itself inside out over the Milifandom.

    Edit: Also Corbyn will get a boost when Russell Brand endorses him.
    I was out of the country for the second half of the short campaign, but there appeared to be a lot of Labour activists who thought that talking to themselves would somehow win over the swing voters. Tory activists I know were saying the same as you, but like most I didn't think the majority was possible - even when someone bet £30k on it!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    The Con + UKIP share must be close to 60% in England if it's 55% in Britain as a whole.
  • Sean_F said:

    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.

    I'm doing tomorrow afternoon's thread on that.
  • And we've got trident, Syria all to come for labour. Plus the rise of 'movement'.......labour MPs should seriously consider their options, otherwise it's many more years in th wilderness.
  • Allez les blues.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    dr_spyn said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 57s58 seconds ago
    On the state of the Labour Party:
    United: 16%
    Divided: 64%
    (via ComRes / 14 - 15 Oct)

    Holy Moses !!!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited October 2015
    Brilliant - that it was even asked is hilarious and appalling.
    Sean_F said:

    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited October 2015
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.

    Stop being so negative.

    If marginal voters didn't like Miliband, then they will love Corbyn.
    Shhh. Don't you know this is 2015 now, the next election will be decided by counting retweets and hashtags #EvilBabyEatingToryScum ;)
    It was funny, I accidentally opened up a thread from the election campaign.

    The Tory activists like Marquee Mark, Notme and myself who were out there were seeing the Ed Miliband drag factor out there, whilst twitter was jizzing itself inside out over the Milifandom.

    Edit: Also Corbyn will get a boost when Russell Brand endorses him.
    I was out of the country for the second half of the short campaign, but there appeared to be a lot of Labour activists who thought that talking to themselves would somehow win over the swing voters. Tory activists I know were saying the same as you, but like most I didn't think the majority was possible - even when someone bet £30k on it!
    I was confident of the Tories winning the most seats, even Dave, George and Lynton weren't expecting a majority.

    So we're in stellar company
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Sean_F said:

    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.

    What the f...! They actually asked that question?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    Keiran on this poll

    If this poll is 'right' then Labour plus every Green and Lib Dem vote still leaves the party behind the Cons tonight

    New boundaries will crush a Corbyn-led Labour.
  • Meh, ComRes always show massive Tory leads; they've shown Tory leads of around 11 - 14 since May this year after their methodology change. What'll be more interesting is to see the VI of other pollsters.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    Bloody hell. The All Blacks.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited October 2015

    And we've got trident, Syria all to come for labour. Plus the rise of 'movement'.... labour MPs should seriously consider their options, otherwise it's many more years in th wilderness.

    I think you mean the 'Momentum group' ?
  • Meh, ComRes always show massive Tory leads; they've shown Tory leads of around 11 - 14 since May this year after their methodology change. What'll be more interesting is to see the VI of other pollsters.

    ComRes are the gold standard. They were the most accurate* pollster at the general election

    (*OK technically they were the least inaccurate)
  • Sean_F said:

    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.

    Treasonous pig dogs.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841
    edited October 2015



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
  • Meh, ComRes always show massive Tory leads; they've shown Tory leads of around 11 - 14 since May this year after their methodology change. What'll be more interesting is to see the VI of other pollsters.

    ComRes are the gold standard. They were the most accurate* pollster at the general election

    (*OK technically they were the least inaccurate)
    Technically Survation were the most accurate, they just didn't publish that poll. In any case, ComRes have changed their GE methodology.
  • Danny565 said:



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
    This, 100%. Plainly more people than not don't buy into the Conservative argument.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.

    Stop being so negative.

    If marginal voters didn't like Miliband, then they will love Corbyn.
    Shhh. Don't you know this is 2015 now, the next election will be decided by counting retweets and hashtags #EvilBabyEatingToryScum ;)
    It was funny, I accidentally opened up a thread from the election campaign.

    The Tory activists like Marquee Mark, Notme and myself who were out there were seeing the Ed Miliband drag factor out there, whilst twitter was jizzing itself inside out over the Milifandom.

    Edit: Also Corbyn will get a boost when Russell Brand endorses him.
    I can honestly say I never met anyone on the doorstep who had a good thing to say about Ed Miliband. However, I do expect some to say they strongly believe in Jeremy. But nowhere near enough to make up for those who just slink away from Labour.
  • SeanT said:

    Bloody hell. The All Blacks.

    The greatest rugby match I've ever seen was France v the All Blacks in the 1999 world cup.
  • What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,728
    edited October 2015

    Danny565 said:



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
    This, 100%. Plainly more people than not don't buy into the Conservative argument.
    I think this is misrepresenting David's argument.

    He is talking about it in terms of risk management for the Tories.

    Politically, there is no need for them to be carrying a thumping majority of the country on this issue. But they do need to make sure it doesn't blow up on them.

    This isn't a great poll, but there's an argument (which David is making) that this is decent enough.

    He is very very far from saying "if I count don't knows as agreement, then the country agrees with this". As one of the more analytical posters on here, as well as one of the best informed and most in-touch, it would be silly to discount or misrepresent what David says on the grounds it some kind of wishfully-thought slavering Tory fanboy whitewash.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,490

    Sean_F said:

    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.

    I'm doing tomorrow afternoon's thread on that.
    TBH I don't think the UK is like Spain in 1936.

    But, I do think some European countries may be closer.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    Danny565 said:



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
    If there is a prize for pb stupidity, then I'm afraid it must go to lefties who support Corbyn in the face of truly catastrophic polling, like this.

    I don't get it. You're clearly not an actual moron, yet you express apparently moronic opinions. Corbynism is a most peculiar pathology.
  • Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    FORTY FIVE PERCENT of the country - NEARLY AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY - think that a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    That's just a killer stat. Economic "chaos"?? How on earth do you change perceptions like that? You can't. Corbyn and McDonnell are leading Labour to utter disaster.

    Stop being so negative.

    If marginal voters didn't like Miliband, then they will love Corbyn.
    Shhh. Don't you know this is 2015 now, the next election will be decided by counting retweets and hashtags #EvilBabyEatingToryScum ;)
    It was funny, I accidentally opened up a thread from the election campaign.

    The Tory activists like Marquee Mark, Notme and myself who were out there were seeing the Ed Miliband drag factor out there, whilst twitter was jizzing itself inside out over the Milifandom.

    Edit: Also Corbyn will get a boost when Russell Brand endorses him.
    I can honestly say I never met anyone on the doorstep who had a good thing to say about Ed Miliband. However, I do expect some to say they strongly believe in Jeremy. But nowhere near enough to make up for those who just slink away from Labour.
    Did you notice that the only perception the voters had of Miliband was from the start of his leadership? He was the weirdo that stabbed his brother in the back.

    If first impressions count then Corbyn is fecked for 2020.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2015
    AndyJS said:

    The Con + UKIP share must be close to 60% in England if it's 55% in Britain as a whole.

    http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/IoS-SM_Political-Poll_October-2015.pdf

    Yep, 60%.

    And there are 7% of Lib Dems who didn't defect to Labour or the Greens.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    I think the technical term is cognitive dissonance. Its depressingly common.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589

    SeanT said:

    Bloody hell. The All Blacks.

    The greatest rugby match I've ever seen was France v the All Blacks in the 1999 world cup.
    The Blacks look like they might crush France.

    Ah, try.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,815
    OGH still pushing the dodgy push polling on tax credits ? Cons have such a big lead they can ignore.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    I think that NZ have got to this point in the world cup without getting out of second gear. They seem to be moving up a few tonight. France need to hang on.
  • Danny565 said:



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
    This, 100%. Plainly more people than not don't buy into the Conservative argument.
    I think this is misrepresenting David's argument.

    He is talking about it in terms of risk management for the Tories.
    I don't think it's a misrepresentation of his argument - I'm well aware he's talking about in terms of risk-management. And as Danny has said, if we do that and add don't knows to those who support Corbyn, then we can also start arguing that in risk-management terms, the positive effect of Corbyn outweighs the negative, even though that plainly isn't true.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841

    Danny565 said:



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
    This, 100%. Plainly more people than not don't buy into the Conservative argument.
    I think this is misrepresenting David's argument.

    He is talking about it in terms of risk management for the Tories.
    But it still makes no sense. Answering "don't know" to a question does not mean you're neutral about it - it means you aren't aware of the issue yet / haven't heard about it in the news yet, or that you're waiting for more information to make up your mind.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 65,729
    edited October 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.

    I'm doing tomorrow afternoon's thread on that.
    TBH I don't think the UK is like Spain in 1936.

    But, I do think some European countries may be closer.
    I think we're one of the few countries in Europe that hasn't experienced communist or fascist governments.

    I think we're the epitome of keep calm and carry on and laugh at the extremists.

    I still think the way Wodehouse destroyed Spode and thus Mosley is the way we deal with extremists before they get anywhere near power, no need for coups then.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    DavidL said:

    I think that NZ have got to this point in the world cup without getting out of second gear. They seem to be moving up a few tonight. France need to hang on.

    France need one of those weird Gallic spaz outs where they suddenly become brilliant and unbeatable for 20 mins, and score four tries.

    However, they haven't done that for a decade against serious opposition.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
    This, 100%. Plainly more people than not don't buy into the Conservative argument.
    I think this is misrepresenting David's argument.

    He is talking about it in terms of risk management for the Tories.
    But it still makes no sense. Answering "don't know" to a question does not mean you're neutral about it - it means you aren't aware of the issue yet / haven't heard about it in the news yet, or that you're waiting for more information to make up your mind.
    Or that you have zero personal experience of it, nor contact with it, so therefore it's meaningless to you.

    85% of the electorate do not get tax credits.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    Come on France!

    *checks self*
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited October 2015
    The first thing Labour have to do is do demonstrate economic competence. That's the problem there because spending what they don't have is in their DnA. Now it is interesting that an almost equal amount thinks austerity is bad but of course they would do. No one really wants the money to be cut back and everyone would like to feel they are doing the right thing by the poorer in society. They also know it's an impractical solution.

    When it comes to the crunch though the more sensible realise that Labour will never be economically competent and that's going to be hard to overcome. Labour can promise as much as they like but they will always go back to normal and people know it. It is a circle they cannot close and only a complete collapse in the countries economics is likely to propel Labour any where near government.

    In essence Labour have to hope for such a catastrophe to happen to the country to get into power but the very fact a catastrophe has happened they would be the very least likely to be able to deal with it.
  • DavidL said:

    What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    I think the technical term is cognitive dissonance. Its depressingly common.
    The only explanation I can think of is that although people are starting to get fed up government policy re the cuts, they still don't trust Labour to manage the economy. Otherwise those stats really are reflective of cognitive dissonance.
  • SeanT said:

    Come on France!

    *checks self*

    Never!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135

    What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    People instinctively like the idea of a free lunch even though they know it would be madness to actually go down that route.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367

    DavidL said:

    What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    I think the technical term is cognitive dissonance. Its depressingly common.
    The only explanation I can think of is that although people are starting to get fed up government policy re the cuts, they still don't trust Labour to manage the economy. Otherwise those stats really are reflective of cognitive dissonance.
    People don't want the cuts to be necessary and have some sympathy for those affected but in their heads they know (a) the picture is pretty complicated and (b) we just can't go on like this.

    TINA as a former Tory leader used to say.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:



    By contrast, 57% either agree with the government on tax credits or are neutral / don't know. That's enough. You'll never persuade everyone and realistically, you don't need to.

    LMAO, taking "don't know" to mean tacit agreement is a new peak of spin even by PBTories' standards. By that logic, I might as well say 60% of people think Corbyn is a strong leader.
    If there is a prize for pb stupidity, then I'm afraid it must go to lefties who support Corbyn in the face of truly catastrophic polling, like this.

    I don't get it. You're clearly not an actual moron, yet you express apparently moronic opinions. Corbynism is a most peculiar pathology.
    It's a desire for ideological purity. Although many on the left go on about the Nasty Tories' ideological need to destroy anyone poorer than them, to wipe their shoes on the frozen hair of homeless people, and to make the world's most EVIL baby purée, the truth is that the left is far more ideological than the right.

    In the UK at least.

    It's why NPXMPMPMPXX and others are supporting Corbyn: they never really lost their ideology, however perverted and twisted that ideology is.

    It's why leftists can go around saying - and excusing - all the things we have seen and heard recently, such as the spitting. It's okay because their hideous and bankrupt (in every sense of the term) ideology allows it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    Farron really needs to get a move-on with the Lib Dems. He's a leader, and should be leading.

    Instead, he's invisible.

    (Annoyed as I backed him for leader two or three years ago, and I'm starting to fear I was wrong).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,841
    edited October 2015

    What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    Because Labour's economic troubles have never been about how much they support austerity. It's just been about the perception that they're incompetent and couldn't run a piss-up in a brewery.

    An Election Day poll also found a plurality of people saying they thought a Miliband government should cut spending/the deficit slower than they planned to (39% said slower, compared to 34% who said they should do it quicker than they planned), at the very same time they said they didn't trust Labour to run the economy. This was a poll which correctly predicted the election outcome.

    http://www.gqrr.com/uk-post-election-2
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    edited October 2015
    France are 25 with Betfair despite only being 10-6 down.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/rugby-union/event?id=27567319
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    All Blax are in a different class, playing a different game.

    How do they do it? Year after year. It's a fascinating phenomenon.

    Only Oz can possibly stop them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    AndyJS said:

    What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    People instinctively like the idea of a free lunch even though they know it would be madness to actually go down that route.
    Or: they don't like austerity (and who does really; it's a sign things have gone wrong), but they don't like, or believe, Labour's alternative? Or perhaps they think austerity is needed, but Labour needs to argue against it to stop the government going too far?

    Or perhaps they are not goldfish and can remember back a few years.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,080
    edited October 2015
    I don't agree the Left are more ideological than the Right; both sets are pretty ideological. Certainly between 1997-2005, the Conservative party clung to Thatcherism like an umblical cord clings to a womb. Arguably, the Tories in their first few months in government alone have shown how very ideological they are; with this awfully simplistic view that anything related to the private sector is amazing and wonderful, and anything related to the state is awful and needs to be shredded. The difference, the Tories have a electable face to put on their ideology in David Cameron, and the common sense to conceal some of the more undesirable parts of their party. Labour doesn't.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    France facing possibly an historic tonking here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,149
    Don't take my word on sport after this afternoon's exploits, but this is looking like a walk in the park for the All Blacks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584
    SeanT said:

    All Blax are in a different class, playing a different game.

    How do they do it? Year after year. It's a fascinating phenomenon.

    Only Oz can possibly stop them.

    So rugby's not my sport, but I guess it's because they play a very aggressive style and - importantly - all of their domestic teams I guess have a similar philosophy. It's like they have a conveyor belt of players ready to come into the national team.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    SeanT said:

    France facing possibly an historic tonking here.

    The current score seriously flatters them. How long can they only let the odd wave come through their defences? This is brutal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 14,804

    DavidL said:

    What's odd about this poll is that the support for Labour supporting austerity (40%) doesn't appear to correlate with the findings that 45% think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos.

    I think the technical term is cognitive dissonance. Its depressingly common.
    The only explanation I can think of is that although people are starting to get fed up government policy re the cuts, they still don't trust Labour to manage the economy. Otherwise those stats really are reflective of cognitive dissonance.
    Or, it is possible that at least some people polled had no idea what the term 'austerity' means. We PBers tend to assume a lot of political interest in the public that is just no there.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,589
    tlg86 said:

    SeanT said:

    All Blax are in a different class, playing a different game.

    How do they do it? Year after year. It's a fascinating phenomenon.

    Only Oz can possibly stop them.

    So rugby's not my sport, but I guess it's because they play a very aggressive style and - importantly - all of their domestic teams I guess have a similar philosophy. It's like they have a conveyor belt of players ready to come into the national team.
    Must be something in that, but it doesn't seem like an entire explanation. There is some psychology at work. There must be. Especially when you see the disparity in resources. There are possibly more people who've played rugby in England than actually live in New Zealand
  • Sean_F said:

    Fun polling finding of the day according to Yougov.

    If Jeremy Corbyn became PM, 42% of Conservatives and 39% of UKIP would support a military coup.

    The fruitcake, loony and closet racists wings of both parties rounded up into one handy intersection.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,574

    Meh, ComRes always show massive Tory leads; they've shown Tory leads of around 11 - 14 since May this year after their methodology change. What'll be more interesting is to see the VI of other pollsters.

    By which you mean the other pollsters who've not changed their methodology since getting the GE so wrong.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    SeanT said:

    All Blax are in a different class, playing a different game.

    How do they do it? Year after year. It's a fascinating phenomenon.

    Only Oz can possibly stop them.

    Sheer body strength. It takes three players to drag down a Kiwi. That leaves two Kiwis free....

    Anyway, good to see a fellow member of the Commonwealth drubbing the cheese-eating surrender monkeys...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    SeanT said:

    tlg86 said:

    SeanT said:

    All Blax are in a different class, playing a different game.

    How do they do it? Year after year. It's a fascinating phenomenon.

    Only Oz can possibly stop them.

    So rugby's not my sport, but I guess it's because they play a very aggressive style and - importantly - all of their domestic teams I guess have a similar philosophy. It's like they have a conveyor belt of players ready to come into the national team.
    Must be something in that, but it doesn't seem like an entire explanation. There is some psychology at work. There must be. Especially when you see the disparity in resources. There are possibly more people who've played rugby in England than actually live in New Zealand
    Rugby is the religion in New Zealand, it is the one thing they lead the world in so that is not surprising!
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