King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Why the Conservative Party still sticks to this baffles me.
Because a wide and shallow Europe has been our objective for decades. If it wasn't for accession the EU might be a single nation by now. It never will be with Turkey as a member. I thought that was one of our goals?
Tax credit cuts???? Nah....this is the real time bomb under the tories. And its ticking
I can only think David Cameron is deliberately softballing our expectations here, to use an American term. The four mentioned so far are either very weak or deliberately vague.:
- An opt-out from ever closer union. No practical effect at all. - A more competitive EU. This sounds like the same gradualist fiddling that we've always had, unless there is something major here, like liberalisation of agriculture. - Single market protections. This could mean anything. I suppose this one could be code for the red card system or a double QMV system. That would be big if we get it done properly. - An end to abuses of free movement. Again, this is so vague it could mean anything. Previously it has been leaked as a four year ban on benefits, so he probably means that. But the abuse we really need to end is liberal giving out of passports, which is what could really put us in trouble from the current migrant crisis.
Cameron must surely have something big up his sleeve, because only the total uninformed or the incredibly biased could describe that as a successful negotiation.
He doesn't have anything up his sleeve IMHO. No.10 is starting to panic.
How well did Opinium fare in GE voting intention in their last poll before GE2015. Is their methodology the same.. and if not how has it been altered.. Anyone know? cause I can't find the Opinion poll history page before GE 2015,
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
75 million Turks..the majority of which are Muslim...just what Europe needs...
Turkey has been a rather secular nation since the days of Ataturk nearly a century ago. There are problems with Turkey that are getting worse under Erdogan that make it incompatible with immediate accession but religion is not it.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
How well did Opinium fare in GE voting intention in their last poll before GE2015. Is their methodology the same.. and if not how has it been altered.. Anyone know? cause I can't find the Opinion poll history page before GE 2015,
Opinium had the Tories leading in most polls from February onwards, though not on the scale of the final outcome. They are comfortably midtable, perhaps a little higher, in the Pollster Premier League.
How well did Opinium fare in GE voting intention in their last poll before GE2015. Is their methodology the same.. and if not how has it been altered.. Anyone know? cause I can't find the Opinion poll history page before GE 2015,
I think the majority of polls since 7th May have put UKIP on a higher share than they achieved at the election. So much for them fading into obscurity.
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
Not sure difference of London to Scotland versus Bath, bit closer than Stockholm though.
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
I think the majority of polls since 7th May have put UKIP on a higher share than they achieved at the election. So much for them fading into obscurity.
If I was to hazard a guess, I'd say they are picking up the section of the Labour vote who disapprovingly think Corbyn is Ed Miliband on steroids, and some who went back to the Tories to keep Labour/SNP out in May.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
The AV referendum was not so much an endorsement of FPTP as a rejection of AV. Nothing else was on offer.
Whilst I agree that a victory for "Remain" would be an endorsement of the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes, I don't believe Cameron has it in his power to offer the "status quo".
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
But the bath, or more accurately baths, I saw were Roman!
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
But the bath, or more accurately baths, I saw were Roman!
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
The AV referendum was not so much an endorsement of FPTP as a rejection of AV. Nothing else was on offer.
Whilst I agree that a victory for "Remain" would be an endorsement of the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes, I don't believe Cameron has it in his power to offer the "status quo".
I would have voted against FPTP if STV was on offer.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
You can only beat what you're up against - the only endorsement of FPTP was that it was preferred over AV.
How well did Opinium fare in GE voting intention in their last poll before GE2015. Is their methodology the same.. and if not how has it been altered.. Anyone know? cause I can't find the Opinion poll history page before GE 2015,
Ty Mr Sunil, it is as I thought. there is absolutely no reason to trust any pollster about anything, they all made such a pigs bladder of things at the GE, why would anyone trust them.?? Until we have had some elections that the pollsters can be measured against, its all a load of mumbo jumbo.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
I think the majority of polls since 7th May have put UKIP on a higher share than they achieved at the election. So much for them fading into obscurity.
What's curious is the disconnect between polls and local byelections right now. UKIP have done poorly in byelections since May despite, as you say, holding up well in the polls. OTOH, the Lib Dems have been performing strongly in byelections despite falling even further in the polls.
More warning noises about what is going on in Europe. If this explodes next year, IN could be in trouble.
The big gains have all come with the refugee crisis. In the Netherlands, the PVV has gone from 20% to 30% in the last month (and from third to first). In Germany, the AfD has gone from 4% to 7.5% (and I suspect would actually get 9 or 10% if there was an election today). In Switzerland, the impact is much more modest (the SVP has been on around 30% for a year or so).
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
The AV referendum was not so much an endorsement of FPTP as a rejection of AV. Nothing else was on offer.
Whilst I agree that a victory for "Remain" would be an endorsement of the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes, I don't believe Cameron has it in his power to offer the "status quo".
It was as much if not more an endorsement of FPTP which was named in the question and the country is used to as it was a rejection of AV. Not only was FPTP named on the ballot paper but arguments on both sides were made for and against it. To deny it was an endorsement of the Status Quo when the named on the ballot paper status quo wins a vote by two to one is a desperate ploy by those who still want change to obscure the issue.
Next will be a case of we should switch to the AMS voting system and then if that was rejected then it still wouldn't be an endorsement of FPTP and so we should have another go with d'hondt etc etc
The public has had parties proposing voting reform for decades and not elected them. Given a referendum on reform it was overwhelmingly rejected. Stop clutching straws.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
Well, I think technically that the AV referendum was a rejection of AV in favour of FPTP. I, for one, would have voted in favour of multimember STV, but voted against AV.
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
Excellent way to spend a Sunday. Would prefer wine myself though
How well did Opinium fare in GE voting intention in their last poll before GE2015. Is their methodology the same.. and if not how has it been altered.. Anyone know? cause I can't find the Opinion poll history page before GE 2015,
Ty Mr Sunil, it is as I thought. there is absolutely no reason to trust any pollster about anything, they all made such a pigs bladder of things at the GE, why would anyone trust them.?? Until we have had some elections that the pollsters can be measured against, its all a load of mumbo jumbo.
It's Dr. Evil Sunil. I didn't spend six ten years in Evil Medical School Imperial College to be called "mister," thank you very much.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
Well, I think technically that the AV referendum was a rejection of AV in favour of FPTP. I, for one, would have voted in favour of multimember STV, but voted against AV.
Exactly it was a specific endorsement of FPTP over AV. Doesn't mean FPTP is perfect but given an alternative it was overwhelmingly endorsed.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
Excellent way to spend a Sunday. Would prefer wine myself though
Saved that for having with dinner Rob, started with bottle of bubbly. With superb weather it was an extremely pleasant weekend all round.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
I thought it had been argued on here that a free trade deal with the EU meant free movement was a necessary part of that. Is that not the case with Switzerland?
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I fear your optimism is displaced.
Cameron's negotiation depends on 27 other leaders, including a socialist Frenchman and a German Chancellor who seems determined to make the whole EU obey her will.
He won't get anything substantial, but will present it as a great deal.
My concern is that he'll still win the referendum, which will be taking by the foreigners and EU-philes here to mean we want increasing integration.
Mmmm, a bit like how the AV referendum result is spun as an endorsement for FPTP?
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
The AV referendum was not so much an endorsement of FPTP as a rejection of AV. Nothing else was on offer.
Whilst I agree that a victory for "Remain" would be an endorsement of the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes, I don't believe Cameron has it in his power to offer the "status quo".
Don't forget that any further integration - beyond that covered by QMV - requires treaty change.
So, for there to be further integration post a referendum requires that the British government - as they have done in the past - continues to sign away our rights.
More warning noises about what is going on in Europe. If this explodes next year, IN could be in trouble.
The big gains have all come with the refugee crisis. In the Netherlands, the PVV has gone from 20% to 30% in the last month (and from third to first). In Germany, the AfD has gone from 4% to 7.5% (and I suspect would actually get 9 or 10% if there was an election today). In Switzerland, the impact is much more modest (the SVP has been on around 30% for a year or so).
Though the PVV have frequently underperformed their polling haven't they?
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
Excellent way to spend a Sunday. Would prefer wine myself though
Saved that for having with dinner Rob, started with bottle of bubbly. With superb weather it was an extremely pleasant weekend all round.
PS : Back to work today with a bump mind you
Beer, bubbly, and wine? Bet you were a happy camper this morning!
King Cole, it's rather far afield from Scotland (or Caledonia, indeed), so I'm not sure Mr. W could be of help (besides, as there are a number of ladies involved I wouldn't want past assignations to get him in trouble with his lady wife).
MD as Jack is far away from Caledonia you never know.
Further than Bath? Or how about Stockholm?
I was in Bath exactly a week ago
I had a bath yesterday, change having a soak from normal shower. Cold beer and a good book.
Excellent way to spend a Sunday. Would prefer wine myself though
Saved that for having with dinner Rob, started with bottle of bubbly. With superb weather it was an extremely pleasant weekend all round.
PS : Back to work today with a bump mind you
Beer, bubbly, and wine? Bet you were a happy camper this morning!
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
In order to meet the EU's acquis communitaire Turkey would have to address a lot of its problems.
Again most of them being secular Muslims which is the tradition in Turkey.
75 million Turks..the majority of which are Muslim...just what Europe needs...
Turkey has been a rather secular nation since the days of Ataturk nearly a century ago. There are problems with Turkey that are getting worse under Erdogan that make it incompatible with immediate accession but religion is not it.
AIUI, all these need to be completed before there can even be a vote. And there is no way Greece will vote for them to join, especially whilst the Cypriot problem remains unresolved.
75 million Turks..the majority of which are Muslim...just what Europe needs...
Turkey has been a rather secular nation since the days of Ataturk nearly a century ago. There are problems with Turkey that are getting worse under Erdogan that make it incompatible with immediate accession but religion is not it.
AIUI, all these need to be completed before there can even be a vote. And there is no way Greece will vote for them to join, especially whilst the Cypriot problem remains unresolved.
Totally agreed. So it would be idiotic for our government to say No, Never to Turkey when it could offer the potential of membership without actually guaranteeing it (and while 27 other members have and are willing to use a veto).
If there were a multiple-choice referendum on voting systems, and the choices on offer were:
FPTP AV STV d'Hondt AMS Drawing lots
Should the referendum result be decided by FPTP, AV, STV, d'Hondt, AMS or by drawing lots?
AV and STV for a single winner is the same thing.
We should rank the systems, and then the elections would follow much in the same way as the holder of the Lord Great Chamberlain - half of elections will be held with the most popular system, one quarter the second most, one eighth the third most, etc.!
e.g. FPTP, AV, FPTP, STV, FPTP, AV, FPTP, d'Hondt...
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
I thought it had been argued on here that a free trade deal with the EU meant free movement was a necessary part of that. Is that not the case with Switzerland?
The Swiss signed a deal with the EU including free movement of labour. However, that deal has not been ratified by the Swiss government, as the government split the agreement into two separate referendum, one of which covered free movement, and one of which covered the rest of the agreement. The latter passed easily, the former lost by a percent or two. It is therefore in limbo, as treaties need to agreed by both sides in totality. It is likely therefore that another treaty will be proposed and voted on in the future. However, the Swiss, currently, do not have access to the free market in services, and are subject to tariffs.
It is important to realise, as Richard Tyndall has pointed out in the past, that free movement is talked about as being an "all or nothing" thing. Norway has "free movement". But it also requires that foreign workers register at the local police station, and take Norwegian lessons. Furthermore, although any EU citizen can work in Norway (including Richard Tyndall on many occasions!), one is required to be able to support oneself. You can't simply turn up and live there without a means of support. The Norwegian system, therefore, allows a lot of flexibility, while having a powerful disincentive for those people who don't wish to integrate.
75 million Turks..the majority of which are Muslim...just what Europe needs...
Turkey has been a rather secular nation since the days of Ataturk nearly a century ago. There are problems with Turkey that are getting worse under Erdogan that make it incompatible with immediate accession but religion is not it.
AIUI, all these need to be completed before there can even be a vote. And there is no way Greece will vote for them to join, especially whilst the Cypriot problem remains unresolved.
Forget Greece. Cyprus has a veto. And half of that island is still occupied by the Turks.
Chances of Cyprus vetoing Turkish membership of the EU = 100%.
1897 case law trumps that of 1875 Rod. Though the 14th Amendment as cited in 1897 merely extended to slaves the existing case law that dates back to the then English Common Law that dates back to 1608 that anyone even of alien parents born in England is an English subject. For America it adopted that exact same legal principle for everyone except slaves but calling them citizens rather than subjects.
It's hard to see how the 1875 ruling was "trumped", when it was quoted approvingly in the 1898 case! as well as in In Re Lockwood (1894) and Luria v United States (1913).
The English Common Law is far more complex than you imagine, btw. Not "anyone even of alien parents born in England" was a subject. Some were deemed "denizens", under statute, and a distinction was still retained between true natural born subjects in fact, and naturalized natural born subjects in law. There is also the question whether English Common Law was adopted at the Federal level in the US (as distinct from the State-level, where is certainly was, initially)
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
There is literally no chance of Turkey joining the EU in my lifetime.
1. Turks don't want to join. 2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
There is literally no chance of Turkey joining the EU in my lifetime.
1. Turks don't want to join. 2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
More warning noises about what is going on in Europe. If this explodes next year, IN could be in trouble.
The big gains have all come with the refugee crisis. In the Netherlands, the PVV has gone from 20% to 30% in the last month (and from third to first). In Germany, the AfD has gone from 4% to 7.5% (and I suspect would actually get 9 or 10% if there was an election today). In Switzerland, the impact is much more modest (the SVP has been on around 30% for a year or so).
There's a lesson there for the mainstream European centre-right, but they have a tin ear for it.
Our government has half-heard it, and the other half is fighting it.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
There is literally no chance of Turkey joining the EU in my lifetime.
1. Turks don't want to join. 2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
I wouldn't say zero. Small, but non-zero.
I would say the chance of the EU collapsing in the next 20 years is - what - 15%? Maybe 20%?
The chance of Turkey joining the EU in that period is at least an order of magnitude less.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
There is literally no chance of Turkey joining the EU in my lifetime.
1. Turks don't want to join. 2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
I wouldn't say zero. Small, but non-zero.
I would say the chance of the EU collapsing in the next 20 years is - what - 15%? Maybe 20%?
The chance of Turkey joining the EU in that period is at least an order of magnitude less.
Yeah, I was just saying it is non-zero. I'm used to dealing with log likelihoods which go down below -100, which I would say was smaller than the chance of Turkey joining
Mr Corbyn rose to ask his list of questions. The list proved somewhat lengthy. “Finally, Mr Speaker—,” said Mr Corbyn after about eight minutes. “Hooray!” cheered Tory MPs.
As it turned out, Mr Corbyn’s questions were almost twice as long (nine minutes) as Mr Cameron’s subsequent answers (five minutes). Perhaps that in itself says something about how those renegotiations are going.
There doesn't seem to be a website anywhere with all the 2011 Canadian election constituency results using the new boundaries on one page so I've done a spreadsheet with the data:
More warning noises about what is going on in Europe. If this explodes next year, IN could be in trouble.
The big gains have all come with the refugee crisis. In the Netherlands, the PVV has gone from 20% to 30% in the last month (and from third to first). In Germany, the AfD has gone from 4% to 7.5% (and I suspect would actually get 9 or 10% if there was an election today). In Switzerland, the impact is much more modest (the SVP has been on around 30% for a year or so).
There's a lesson there for the mainstream European centre-right, but they have a tin ear for it.
Our government has half-heard it, and the other half is fighting it.
As an aside, I would assume that the FN in France has benefited too, but it's hard to know because the French simply don't have many opinion polls.
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
Genuine change was not on the agenda. It was an offer to Choose between a broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot and a more complicated broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot designed to boost the number of seats the Liberals got.
The public was asked if they wanted more Liberals in Westminster and, just as in 2015, the public said no.
There doesn't seem to be a website anywhere with all the 2011 Canadian election constituency results using the new boundaries on one page so I've done a spreadsheet with the data:
There doesn't seem to be a website anywhere with all the 2011 Canadian election constituency results using the new boundaries on one page so I've done a spreadsheet with the data:
@Casino_Royale, interestingly, Lega Nord and its sister party Us with Salvini don't seem to be benefiting in Italy. I had hoped that the LN/NcS would replace Forza Italia as the main right of centre party (on the basis that Berlusconi is not just a joke, but is a bad joke).
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
Change was not on the agenda. It was an offer to change from a broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot to a more complicated broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot designed to boost the number of seats the Liberals got.
The public was asked if they wanted more Liberals in Westminster and, just as in 2015, the public said no.
No other endorsement can be implied.
I suspect the LibDems would have done even worse under AV than they actually did under FPTP.
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
There is literally no chance of Turkey joining the EU in my lifetime.
1. Turks don't want to join. 2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
The Greeks and Cypriots will do as their told by Merkel. If the Germans want them in, they'll be in. As you say, the only thing that's stopping me freaking out at the prospect is that the Turks probably don't really fancy it.
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
Change was not on the agenda. It was an offer to change from a broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot to a more complicated broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot designed to boost the number of seats the Liberals got.
The public was asked if they wanted more Liberals in Westminster and, just as in 2015, the public said no.
No other endorsement can be implied.
I suspect the LibDems would have done even worse under AV than they actually did under FPTP.
That;s certainly true as things turned out because the Liberals lost their place as the third party. But it's still all that AV offers, a seat boost to the third party which is unrelated to proportionality.
At the time of the vote, however, the Liberals were the established, long term third party and there was little doubt what the AV proposal was designed to do and would have delivered historically.
Good evening. Any news from Canada on how the election is going over there?
First results will not be in until midnight
All this talk about elections is making me nostalgic. Where's scrapheap? Time to stick on the 2015 election again, and watch the glorious exit poll.
I am sure that will keep you busy until polls close on the Atlantic coast. I have got to be up in the morning so cannot be too late but will have a look at early trend
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
There is literally no chance of Turkey joining the EU in my lifetime.
1. Turks don't want to join. 2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
The Greeks and Cypriots will do as their told by Merkel. If the Germans want them in, they'll be in.
No Greek or Cypriot government would be able to be re-elected if it let the Turks in.
Politicians in Greece and Cyprus are like politicians anywhere. They will not do something that leads to certain electoral obliteration. Letting Turkey into the EU - while Northern Cyprus still has Turkish troops - would be more than electoral suicide for any Cypriot politician.
I know plenty of Cypriots: the people of that country would rather see their parliament go up in flames rather than let Turkey in the EU.
Good evening. Any news from Canada on how the election is going over there?
First results will not be in until midnight
All this talk about elections is making me nostalgic. Where's scrapheap? Time to stick on the 2015 election again, and watch the glorious exit poll.
I am sure that will keep you busy until polls close on the Atlantic coast. I have got to be up in the morning so cannot be too late but will have a look at early trend
I'm actually on a reasonable time zone to watch it play out. Although it was nice being 8hrs behind the UK in May!
@Casino_Royale, interestingly, Lega Nord and its sister party Us with Salvini don't seem to be benefiting in Italy. I had hoped that the LN/NcS would replace Forza Italia as the main right of centre party (on the basis that Berlusconi is not just a joke, but is a bad joke).
Good evening. Any news from Canada on how the election is going over there?
First results will not be in until midnight
All this talk about elections is making me nostalgic. Where's scrapheap? Time to stick on the 2015 election again, and watch the glorious exit poll.
I am sure that will keep you busy until polls close on the Atlantic coast. I have got to be up in the morning so cannot be too late but will have a look at early trend
I'm actually on a reasonable time zone to watch it play out. Although it was nice being 8hrs behind the UK in May!
Yes you could watch most of the Marginals come in over dinner
There doesn't seem to be a website anywhere with all the 2011 Canadian election constituency results using the new boundaries on one page so I've done a spreadsheet with the data:
PT The problems in Turkey are Turkeys problems... but if 75 million of them suddenly have access and the right of residence in Europe....most of them being Muslims..then it will very rapidly become Europe's problem...in a very big way..
Schengen does not grant right of residence, merely right to cross the border without a passport. Switzerland, for example, is part of Schengen, but a Frenchman has no right to reside there.
Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
But membership of the EU would grant that right, surely?
There is literally no chance of Turkey joining the EU in my lifetime.
1. Turks don't want to join. 2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
The Greeks and Cypriots will do as their told by Merkel. If the Germans want them in, they'll be in.
No Greek or Cypriot government would be able to be re-elected if it let the Turks in.
Politicians in Greece and Cyprus are like politicians anywhere. They will not do something that leads to certain electoral obliteration. Letting Turkey into the EU - while Northern Cyprus still has Turkish troops - would be more than electoral suicide for any Cypriot politician.
I know plenty of Cypriots: the people of that country would rather see their parliament go up in flames rather than let Turkey in the EU.
There doesn't seem to be a website anywhere with all the 2011 Canadian election constituency results using the new boundaries on one page so I've done a spreadsheet with the data:
Good evening. Any news from Canada on how the election is going over there?
First results will not be in until midnight
All this talk about elections is making me nostalgic. Where's scrapheap? Time to stick on the 2015 election again, and watch the glorious exit poll.
I am sure that will keep you busy until polls close on the Atlantic coast. I have got to be up in the morning so cannot be too late but will have a look at early trend
I'm actually on a reasonable time zone to watch it play out. Although it was nice being 8hrs behind the UK in May!
Yes you could watch most of the Marginals come in over dinner
I'm going to have to truly gamble and run my position overnight, for the same reasons as you. Early start.
The AV referendum result was an endorsement of FPTP. FPTP was the status quo and change was rejected by two to one.
Change was not on the agenda. It was an offer to change from a broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot to a more complicated broken, undemocratic winner takes all ballot designed to boost the number of seats the Liberals got.
The public was asked if they wanted more Liberals in Westminster and, just as in 2015, the public said no.
No other endorsement can be implied.
I suspect the LibDems would have done even worse under AV than they actually did under FPTP.
That;s certainly true as things turned out because the Liberals lost their place as the third party. But it's still all that AV offers, a seat boost to the third party which is unrelated to proportionality.
At the time of the vote, however, the Liberals were the established, long term third party and there was little doubt what the AV proposal was designed to do and would have delivered historically.
Not sure I agree. Australia where AV is actually in place is not particularly kind to third parties in its lower house.
But to go back to your other post FPTP was endorsed two to one versus what it was put against. That's as much an endorsement as it's possible to get to date. Just as if the SNP wins Holyrood they can have a second bite at an independence referendum if a party in favour of reform gets into office in Westminster then we could get another referendum. But there's no clear appetite for it from the public that only recently rejected overwhelmingly the change that was offered.
There doesn't seem to be a website anywhere with all the 2011 Canadian election constituency results using the new boundaries on one page so I've done a spreadsheet with the data:
I don't actually know any Turkish Cypriots... However, I do know quite a number of Greek Cypriots.
No Cypriot politician that voted to allow Turkey into the EU would survive an hour in Cyprus. He would, literally, be hunted down and torn limb from limb. Fear of the German government is nothing compared with fear of being physically assaulted by your own people.
Not sure I agree. Australia where AV is actually in place is not particularly kind to third parties in its lower house.
But to go back to your other post FPTP was endorsed two to one versus what it was put against. That's as much an endorsement as it's possible to get to date. Just as if the SNP wins Holyrood they can have a second bite at an independence referendum if a party in favour of reform gets into office in Westminster then we could get another referendum. But there's no clear appetite for it from the public that only recently rejected overwhelmingly the change that was offered.
The real shame is how your determined anti-democratic agenda is hidden behind such obvious straw men and constructed lies.
Just admit the reason you want FPTP, to promote absolute majorites based on tiny vote shares which will generally favour the less divided right.
Referee Craig Joubert was wrong to award a last-minute penalty against Scotland in their World Cup quarter-final defeat by Australia at Twickenham, says World Rugby.
Not sure I agree. Australia where AV is actually in place is not particularly kind to third parties in its lower house.
But to go back to your other post FPTP was endorsed two to one versus what it was put against. That's as much an endorsement as it's possible to get to date. Just as if the SNP wins Holyrood they can have a second bite at an independence referendum if a party in favour of reform gets into office in Westminster then we could get another referendum. But there's no clear appetite for it from the public that only recently rejected overwhelmingly the change that was offered.
The real shame is how your determined anti-democratic agenda is hidden behind such obvious straw men and constructed lies.
Just admit the reason you want FPTP, to promote absolute majorites based on tiny vote shares which will generally favour the less divided right.
Is it SNP policy to move to multimember STV in Scotland?
Comments
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 37% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
UKIP: 15% (+1)
LDEM: 5% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Opinium / 13 - 16 Oct)
Well. Assuming the SNP isn't ahead of them already.
She was the acting Iraq director for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) and had been travelling to Irbil, northern Iraq.
Irbil is capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34567210
Con 325
Lab 242
SNP 57
Plaid Cymru 4
Lib Dem 2
UKIP 1
Green 1
Just for fun, of course.
At what point do we have to start reporting polling numbers with words, like the old teleprinter, eg
Lib Dem 5% (FIVE PERCENT)
A victory for remain would be an endorsement for the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes. It would not be an endorsement of further integration just as the AV referendum was not an endorsement of further change.
Opinium, 5th May 2015:
Con 35%
Lab 34%
LD 8%
UKIP 12%
Green 6%
others 5%
Whilst I agree that a victory for "Remain" would be an endorsement of the status quo of the EU plus any negotiated changes, I don't believe Cameron has it in his power to offer the "status quo".
More warning noises about what is going on in Europe. If this explodes next year, IN could be in trouble.
Updated an hour ago, apparently.
PS: did you get a cold beer though
Next will be a case of we should switch to the AMS voting system and then if that was rejected then it still wouldn't be an endorsement of FPTP and so we should have another go with d'hondt etc etc
The public has had parties proposing voting reform for decades and not elected them. Given a referendum on reform it was overwhelmingly rejected. Stop clutching straws.
EvilSunil. I didn't spendsixten years inEvil Medical SchoolImperial College to be called "mister," thank you very much.Don't forget a Turk with a passport can already cross into the Schengen zone without a visa. The Turks gain no additional right to come to the UK in the event that they did join Schengen.
PS : Back to work today with a bump mind you
So, for there to be further integration post a referendum requires that the British government - as they have done in the past - continues to sign away our rights.
GWICWNBPMOTNL
FPTP
AV
STV
d'Hondt
AMS
Drawing lots
Should the referendum result be decided by FPTP, AV, STV, d'Hondt, AMS or by drawing lots?
Again most of them being secular Muslims which is the tradition in Turkey.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union#Negotiation_progress
AIUI, all these need to be completed before there can even be a vote. And there is no way Greece will vote for them to join, especially whilst the Cypriot problem remains unresolved.
e.g. FPTP, AV, FPTP, STV, FPTP, AV, FPTP, d'Hondt...
It is important to realise, as Richard Tyndall has pointed out in the past, that free movement is talked about as being an "all or nothing" thing. Norway has "free movement". But it also requires that foreign workers register at the local police station, and take Norwegian lessons. Furthermore, although any EU citizen can work in Norway (including Richard Tyndall on many occasions!), one is required to be able to support oneself. You can't simply turn up and live there without a means of support. The Norwegian system, therefore, allows a lot of flexibility, while having a powerful disincentive for those people who don't wish to integrate.
Chances of Cyprus vetoing Turkish membership of the EU = 100%.
The English Common Law is far more complex than you imagine, btw. Not "anyone even of alien parents born in England" was a subject. Some were deemed "denizens", under statute, and a distinction was still retained between true natural born subjects in fact, and naturalized natural born subjects in law. There is also the question whether English Common Law was adopted at the Federal level in the US (as distinct from the State-level, where is certainly was, initially)
1. Turks don't want to join.
2. The Greeks and Cypriots would veto it.
Our government has half-heard it, and the other half is fighting it.
The chance of Turkey joining the EU in that period is at least an order of magnitude less.
Hopefully the security guard and bystanders will face the appropriate justice.
There doesn't seem to be a website anywhere with all the 2011 Canadian election constituency results using the new boundaries on one page so I've done a spreadsheet with the data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Nqs8lrKYeN06aXEV3YAguk9fCaMSLDnrvMh7pcn4KV4/edit#gid=0
The public was asked if they wanted more Liberals in Westminster and, just as in 2015, the public said no.
No other endorsement can be implied.
At the time of the vote, however, the Liberals were the established, long term third party and there was little doubt what the AV proposal was designed to do and would have delivered historically.
Politicians in Greece and Cyprus are like politicians anywhere. They will not do something that leads to certain electoral obliteration. Letting Turkey into the EU - while Northern Cyprus still has Turkish troops - would be more than electoral suicide for any Cypriot politician.
I know plenty of Cypriots: the people of that country would rather see their parliament go up in flames rather than let Turkey in the EU.
It's been a while since I've done that.
But to go back to your other post FPTP was endorsed two to one versus what it was put against. That's as much an endorsement as it's possible to get to date. Just as if the SNP wins Holyrood they can have a second bite at an independence referendum if a party in favour of reform gets into office in Westminster then we could get another referendum. But there's no clear appetite for it from the public that only recently rejected overwhelmingly the change that was offered.
However, I do know quite a number of Greek Cypriots.
No Cypriot politician that voted to allow Turkey into the EU would survive an hour in Cyprus. He would, literally, be hunted down and torn limb from limb. Fear of the German government is nothing compared with fear of being physically assaulted by your own people.
Just admit the reason you want FPTP, to promote absolute majorites based on tiny vote shares which will generally favour the less divided right.
Referee Craig Joubert was wrong to award a last-minute penalty against Scotland in their World Cup quarter-final defeat by Australia at Twickenham, says World Rugby.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34576756