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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approval ratings slump to a net minus 19 points in

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approval ratings slump to a net minus 19 points in latest Opinium poll

Opinium has a new poll out showing almost no change in the voting intention numbers. CON still ahead by 5%.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Last like Corby
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Ouch. minus 19.
    Still, could be worse...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    FPT:

    I know all you Tory PBers are fixated with reducing the deficit so why not tackle a most unfair tax advantage enjoyed by a significant number of people - that being the fact that individuals who derive their income from letting properties, often many properties, pay no national insurance on those profits. Why not levy a tax equivalent to Class 4 NIC and exclude capital gains tax exemption from gains made on let properties.

    Why should they pay NIC?

    If they are neither an employer or employee of a company?
    It's not why should they...it's why shouldn't they?. An individual with five properties deriving income and managing those properties is as much a business as any other person who rents out equipment or similar
    They are not an employee of a company. If they are in business, then as an employer they will be paying NI, but if thy don't employ anybody, why should they be treated as if they are?
    They will be paying income tax on the rental income.
    I bet you support IR35 too...
    You bet I support IR35...it's an abuse of the system designed to avoid paying the fair amount of tax that finances our piblic services. Yes, they will be paying tax but why not make that income NICable?
    IR35, in all but a handful of cases, is a wholly stupid piece of legislation. It has probably cost more to enforce than it has raised.
    I have been IR35'ed, and after a lengthy "review" was deemed outside of the net.

    Regarding rental income, there are changes afoot that could ease you concerns, see some of the examples linked here:
    http://www.accountingweb.co.uk/article/huge-tax-bills-ahead-landlords/591330?cx_tag=clbu1
    It all goes back to Gordon Brown's introduction of the 0% CT ban on the first £10,000 profits. I have often thought of penning a FOI request to establish how many billions that stupidity cost the nation. It resulted in every Tom, Dick and Harry incorporating partnerships and eliminating tax liabilities completely for vey many

    Are you drunk?
  • According to Matt Singh, it's because some of those Don't Knows are beginning to make their mind up..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    Ouch. minus 19.
    Still, could be worse...

    It will be...
  • FPT
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Though in England Labour got 88% of the left wing parties vote in 2015 while the Tories got 75% of the right wing parties vote. So how is the left more divided?

    Arguably the Blair and Brown governments were elected on a right wing platform.

    But your figures are also, as usual, lies. Labour got 71% of the Left vote in England.
    Wrong: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Left
    Labour: 31.6
    Greens: 4.2
    TUSC: 0.1

    Total: 35.9%

    Labour 31.6/35.9 = 88.0%

    Right
    Tories: 41.0
    UKIP: 14.1

    Total: 55.1

    Tories: 41.0/54.1 = 74.4%
    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.
    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    FPT

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Though in England Labour got 88% of the left wing parties vote in 2015 while the Tories got 75% of the right wing parties vote. So how is the left more divided?

    Arguably the Blair and Brown governments were elected on a right wing platform.

    But your figures are also, as usual, lies. Labour got 71% of the Left vote in England.
    Wrong: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Left
    Labour: 31.6
    Greens: 4.2
    TUSC: 0.1

    Total: 35.9%

    Labour 31.6/35.9 = 88.0%

    Right
    Tories: 41.0
    UKIP: 14.1

    Total: 55.1

    Tories: 41.0/54.1 = 74.4%
    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.
    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
    The SNP and Tories call themselves centrists too. Pretty much all the parties do. It's the way of current politics.

    While once the Liberal party was almost certainly a decent right of centre libertarian party, those days are long gone which is why it is dominated by the leftist social democrats within it.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Dair said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Though in England Labour got 88% of the left wing parties vote in 2015 while the Tories got 75% of the right wing parties vote. So how is the left more divided?

    Arguably the Blair and Brown governments were elected on a right wing platform.

    But your figures are also, as usual, lies. Labour got 71% of the Left vote in England.
    Wrong: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Left
    Labour: 31.6
    Greens: 4.2
    TUSC: 0.1

    Total: 35.9%

    Labour 31.6/35.9 = 88.0%

    Right
    Tories: 41.0
    UKIP: 14.1

    Total: 55.1

    Tories: 41.0/54.1 = 74.4%
    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.
    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
    The SNP and Tories call themselves centrists too. Pretty much all the parties do. It's the way of current politics.

    While once the Liberal party was almost certainly a decent right of centre libertarian party, those days are long gone which is why it is dominated by the leftist social democrats within it.
    The SNP are quite fond of displaying their "socialist" credentials.
    To say they call themselves centrist or even centre-left is nonsense. They wrap themselves with a cloak of "progressiveness".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    FPT.Doddy

    "Another replay demanded by Scotland...just like the Indy Ref..man up.."

    Very disappointing to hear Gavin Hastings showing such a lack of sportsmanship on the news channels today. I've met him and worked with his brother Scott. Both very nice and the last people you'd expect to behave like adolescent Paul Gasgoines
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Ouch. minus 19.
    Still, could be worse...

    It will be...
    Not to worry eh? At least they have Watson standing by to take over whenever needed.....

    Oh.....?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2015
    Could Corbyn be the Neguib to John McDonnells Gamal Abdul Nasser?
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,491

    Ouch. minus 19.
    Still, could be worse...

    It will be...
    There will be genuine confusion out there, "everyone on my twitter feed is planning to vote Labour"...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
  • Dair said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.

    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
    The SNP and Tories call themselves centrists too. Pretty much all the parties do. It's the way of current politics.

    While once the Liberal party was almost certainly a decent right of centre libertarian party, those days are long gone which is why it is dominated by the leftist social democrats within it.
    News to Nick Clegg and the many centre-right voters who voted for him.

    The Left wing parties were not willing to go into coalition with Cameron's Tories. The Right wing parties were not willing to go into coalition with Miliband's Labour.

    Clegg's Lib Dems were happy to get into bed with either. You can't put them in either column. Which is why they the Lib Dems did so well in opposition (could play both sides) and why they were slaughtered this time (they were a glorified abstention).
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,491

    Dair said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Though in England Labour got 88% of the left wing parties vote in 2015 while the Tories got 75% of the right wing parties vote. So how is the left more divided?

    Arguably the Blair and Brown governments were elected on a right wing platform.

    But your figures are also, as usual, lies. Labour got 71% of the Left vote in England.
    Wrong: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Left
    Labour: 31.6
    Greens: 4.2
    TUSC: 0.1

    Total: 35.9%

    Labour 31.6/35.9 = 88.0%

    Right
    Tories: 41.0
    UKIP: 14.1

    Total: 55.1

    Tories: 41.0/54.1 = 74.4%
    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.
    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
    The SNP and Tories call themselves centrists too. Pretty much all the parties do. It's the way of current politics.

    While once the Liberal party was almost certainly a decent right of centre libertarian party, those days are long gone which is why it is dominated by the leftist social democrats within it.
    The SNP are quite fond of displaying their "socialist" credentials.
    To say they call themselves centrist or even centre-left is nonsense. They wrap themselves with a cloak of "progressiveness".
    I see the SNP as Blairite (though they wont appreciate the comparison). He successfully blended a message of social justice and economic competence.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    On topic, who'd have thought it? Question is, how far will he fall? -19 is not in isolation a bad score; it's just a very bad score at this stage.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    "Corby’s ratings are unprecedented"

    Town of the year?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    notme said:

    Dair said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Though in England Labour got 88% of the left wing parties vote in 2015 while the Tories got 75% of the right wing parties vote. So how is the left more divided?

    Arguably the Blair and Brown governments were elected on a right wing platform.

    But your figures are also, as usual, lies. Labour got 71% of the Left vote in England.
    Wrong: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Left
    Labour: 31.6
    Greens: 4.2
    TUSC: 0.1

    Total: 35.9%

    Labour 31.6/35.9 = 88.0%

    Right
    Tories: 41.0
    UKIP: 14.1

    Total: 55.1

    Tories: 41.0/54.1 = 74.4%
    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.
    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
    The SNP and Tories call themselves centrists too. Pretty much all the parties do. It's the way of current politics.

    While once the Liberal party was almost certainly a decent right of centre libertarian party, those days are long gone which is why it is dominated by the leftist social democrats within it.
    The SNP are quite fond of displaying their "socialist" credentials.
    To say they call themselves centrist or even centre-left is nonsense. They wrap themselves with a cloak of "progressiveness".
    I see the SNP as Blairite (though they wont appreciate the comparison). He successfully blended a message of social justice and economic competence.
    Compared with the SNP, Blair had integrity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,327
    On topic, why would Conservative voters not give Mr Corbyn top marks ?

    Surely he is everything they want in a Labour leader.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    "Corby’s ratings are unprecedented"

    Town of the year?

    I was going to go with trouser-press, but yours works too.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    I've hardly seen anything of Corbyn. He doesn't seem to have grasped what's involved in being a leader. I hope people reserve judgement at least until he gets his feet under the table. At the moment he's giving the Tories a ridiculously easy ride and missing more open goals than Rooney.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    @Conorpope: If there aren't Labour activists with Osborne 4 Leader twibbons by 10pm, then we might as well pack up and go home. https://t.co/8j4Mmd3OPs

    I suspect George Osborne will be reflecting on these numbers as carefully as anyone.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I can't believe anybody is surprised at this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, why would Conservative voters not give Mr Corbyn top marks ?

    Surely he is everything they want in a Labour leader.

    I always vote tactically in YouGov polls.

    Is Corbyn doing a good job? For me, yes!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,316
    edited October 2015
    I honestly never thought I'd see the day when Michael Foot was no longer regarded as the most unelectable leader of the Labour party.

    [stifles snigger]

    EDIT: Footy was not a bad chap, really. Certainly didn't deserve the shoeing he got. Corbyn, on the other hand...
  • notme said:

    Dair said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Though in England Labour got 88% of the left wing parties vote in 2015 while the Tories got 75% of the right wing parties vote. So how is the left more divided?

    Arguably the Blair and Brown governments were elected on a right wing platform.

    But your figures are also, as usual, lies. Labour got 71% of the Left vote in England.
    Wrong: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Left
    Labour: 31.6
    Greens: 4.2
    TUSC: 0.1

    Total: 35.9%

    Labour 31.6/35.9 = 88.0%

    Right
    Tories: 41.0
    UKIP: 14.1

    Total: 55.1

    Tories: 41.0/54.1 = 74.4%
    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.
    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
    The SNP and Tories call themselves centrists too. Pretty much all the parties do. It's the way of current politics.

    While once the Liberal party was almost certainly a decent right of centre libertarian party, those days are long gone which is why it is dominated by the leftist social democrats within it.
    The SNP are quite fond of displaying their "socialist" credentials.
    To say they call themselves centrist or even centre-left is nonsense. They wrap themselves with a cloak of "progressiveness".
    I see the SNP as Blairite (though they wont appreciate the comparison). He successfully blended a message of social justice and economic competence.
    Compared with the SNP, Blair had integrity.
    Bitter much?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    antifrank said:

    @Conorpope: If there aren't Labour activists with Osborne 4 Leader twibbons by 10pm, then we might as well pack up and go home. https://t.co/8j4Mmd3OPs

    I suspect George Osborne will be reflecting on these numbers as carefully as anyone.

    NB the balance are overwhelmingly "none of these" - 40%. Only 8% don't know. These are two unpopular politicians.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    @patrickwintour: First Labour parliamentarian and ex Minister resigns Labour whip tonight saying Labour no longer a credible party of government in waiting.

    From the wording I take it that it is a member of the House of Lords.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    @Conorpope: If there aren't Labour activists with Osborne 4 Leader twibbons by 10pm, then we might as well pack up and go home. https://t.co/8j4Mmd3OPs

    I suspect George Osborne will be reflecting on these numbers as carefully as anyone.

    NB the balance are overwhelmingly "none of these" - 40%. Only 8% don't know. These are two unpopular politicians.
    Boris would comfortably beat both of them, I think Osborne would still beat Corbyn but it would be closer
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @JGForsyth: Looks like there is an @patrickwintour exclusive coming up on an ex Labour minister resigning the Labour whip because of Corbyn leadership
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    notme said:

    Dair said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Though in England Labour got 88% of the left wing parties vote in 2015 while the Tories got 75% of the right wing parties vote. So how is the left more divided?

    Arguably the Blair and Brown governments were elected on a right wing platform.

    But your figures are also, as usual, lies. Labour got 71% of the Left vote in England.
    Wrong: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

    Left
    Labour: 31.6
    Greens: 4.2
    TUSC: 0.1

    Total: 35.9%

    Labour 31.6/35.9 = 88.0%

    Right
    Tories: 41.0
    UKIP: 14.1

    Total: 55.1

    Tories: 41.0/54.1 = 74.4%
    You've forgotten the Liberals in the Left column.
    No I've not, not only were the Lib Dems entering the election after five years of Coalition government with the Tories but the Lib Dems are Centrists. They call themselves Central, they campaigned as neither left nor right. They were willing to go into government with the Tories as no Left wing party is. Their whole PPB was "don't turn left or right" stay centre nonsense (which is terrible advice, stay on the middle of the road and you'll get ran over).

    So why would you call the Lib Dems "Left" now?
    The SNP and Tories call themselves centrists too. Pretty much all the parties do. It's the way of current politics.

    While once the Liberal party was almost certainly a decent right of centre libertarian party, those days are long gone which is why it is dominated by the leftist social democrats within it.
    The SNP are quite fond of displaying their "socialist" credentials.
    To say they call themselves centrist or even centre-left is nonsense. They wrap themselves with a cloak of "progressiveness".
    I see the SNP as Blairite (though they wont appreciate the comparison). He successfully blended a message of social justice and economic competence.
    Compared with the SNP, Blair had integrity.
    Bitter much?
    Honestly?
    Yes, a bit.
    Is it wrong for me to want the government to stop fixating on a single issue and get on with governing?
    Is it wrong to want a more balanced parliament with a functioning opposition?
    Yeah, I'm a bit bitter.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015

    On topic, who'd have thought it? Question is, how far will he fall? -19 is not in isolation a bad score; it's just a very bad score at this stage.

    That's it really.
    LAB 32% - (CON&UKIP) 52% = -20% approval rating.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    Roger said:

    I've hardly seen anything of Corbyn. He doesn't seem to have grasped what's involved in being a leader.

    Of course he's got no idea. He's spent the past 32 years posing like an attention-seeking teenager trying to shock the adults and as is often the case, the adults have rolled their eyes, indulged him and left him to get on with it. But suddenly he's inherited the place and is caught between an uncomfortable feeling that the party's over on the one hand, and the temptation to blow the lot on a massive bender, on the other.

    He's had no training on the front bench, none on the NEC (which at least people like Skinner had), none leading a trade union or a council. He's not even worked closely with anyone in any of those positions. Power to him is an external thing to influence or rail against, not to wield.
    Roger said:

    I hope people reserve judgement at least until he gets his feet under the table. At the moment he's giving the Tories a ridiculously easy ride and missing more open goals than Rooney.

    Won't make any difference. He's not going to change now and if he did, he'd lose his core support without picking up anything new: he's too much baggage.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    @patrickwintour: First Labour parliamentarian and ex Minister resigns Labour whip tonight saying Labour no longer a credible party of government in waiting.

    From the wording I take it that it is a member of the House of Lords.

    Is it Mandelson?
    If not then who cares and who knows his name.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I can't believe anybody is surprised at this.

    I'm just shocked that we haven't been given another Tax Credits Doom thread.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2015
    Re NBC

    When examining this question, one necessarily must return to contemporaneous sources written by people who actually were there.

    David Ramsay (1749-1815), known as the "Historian of the Revolution", and who served as Acting President of the Continental Congress wrote:

    "A Dissertation on the Manners of Acquiring the Character and Privileges of a Citizen (1789)"

    'The “United States” are a new nation, or political society, formed at first by the declaration of independence, out of those “British subjects” in “America,” who were thrown out of royal protection by act of parliament, passed in December 1775.

    A citizen of the “United States,” means a member of this new nation. The principle of government being radically changed by the revolution, the political character of the people was also changed from subjects to citizens.

    The difference is immense. Subject is derived from the latin word, “sub” and “jacio,” and means one who is “under” the power of another; but a citizen is a “unit” of a mass of free people, who, collectively, possess sovereignty...

    'None can claim citizenship as a birth-right, but such as have been born since the declaration of independence, for obvious reasons: no man can be born a citizen of a state or government, which did not exist at the time of his birth. Citizenship is the inheritance of the children of those who have taken a part in the last revolution; but this is confined exclusively to the children of those who were themselves citizens. Those who died before the revolution, could leave no political character to their children, but of subjects, which they themselves possessed. If they had lived, no one could be certain whether they would have adhered to the king or congress. Their children, therefore, may claim by inheritance the rights of “British subjects,” but not of “American citizens.” ...

    'The citizenship of no man could be previous to the declaration of independence, and, as a natural right, belongs to none but those who have been born of citizens since the 4th of July, 1776. . . . From the premises already established, it may be farther inferred, that citizenship, from inheritance, belong to none but the children of those "Americans", who, having survived the declaration of independence, acquired that adventitious character in their own right, and transmitted it to their offspring.'

    [my bold]
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    @patrickwintour: First Labour parliamentarian and ex Minister resigns Labour whip tonight saying Labour no longer a credible party of government in waiting.

    From the wording I take it that it is a member of the House of Lords.

    Is it Mandelson?
    If not then who cares and who knows his name.
    If it's a Lord then NPXMP won't remember him.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    GeoffM said:

    I can't believe anybody is surprised at this.

    I'm just shocked that we haven't been given another Tax Credits Doom thread.
    I'm tempted to write one. The alternative is on Conservative divisions over the EU referendum.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Roger said:

    I've hardly seen anything of Corbyn. He doesn't seem to have grasped what's involved in being a leader. I hope people reserve judgement at least until he gets his feet under the table. At the moment he's giving the Tories a ridiculously easy ride and missing more open goals than Rooney.

    Reserve judgement Err... No

    His feet have already been under the table for 30 odd years. Unfortunately the tables were those of the this country's enemies and people have very long memories on this.

    What makes it more amusing is the only person able to ride to any sort of rescue for Labour is Watson the other Unions choice. The more sensible Labour MPs must be reaching for the proverbial "whiskey and the revolvers" at this stage in total despair.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    @nigel4england

    Outrageously unlucky not to cop on Shelvey and Adam... Adam should def have been booked
  • Hutton?? Or has he gone already.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    antifrank said:

    GeoffM said:

    I can't believe anybody is surprised at this.

    I'm just shocked that we haven't been given another Tax Credits Doom thread.
    I'm tempted to write one. The alternative is on Conservative divisions over the EU referendum.
    I wouldn't mind a decent informative thread header on the subject. Your thoughts are always worth reading. The recent Tax Credit ones have been very one-eyed so they just get ignored on the route to below the line.


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited October 2015
    isam said:

    @nigel4england

    Outrageously unlucky not to cop on Shelvey and Adam... Adam should def have been booked

    Shelvey was booked so got a return at 1.48, but Adam should have been carded as well
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RodCrosby said:

    Re NBC

    When examining this question, one necessarily must return to contemporaneous sources written by people who actually were there....snipsnipsnip .... survived the declaration of independence, acquired that adventitious character in their own right, and transmitted it to their offspring.'
    [my bold]

    In the name of G-d can't we just drop this?

  • Sunder K suggesting might be Lord West.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Sunder K suggesting might be Lord West.

    Who?
    I don't remember a minister West.
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    Comparing those ratings have one thing in common: Corbyn is as likely as Farage to become PM.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Speedy said:

    Sunder K suggesting might be Lord West.

    Who?
    I don't remember a minister West.
    That's NPxMPs line you're stealing there. The rest of us remember him. Or I do, at least.
  • Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @bbclaurak: Hearing resignation of Labour whip is Lord Warner, the former health minister - not confirmed
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Yes, and I think he's a relatively weak candidate. This is the GOP's election to lose.
  • WHO????

    Another arron banks big name
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,316
    Well, bollocks. Computer just ran out of power. Just wrote a long post, too. Here is the I-can't-be-arsed-to-do-all-that-again version...

    There are striking similarities between:
    1) Republican Primaries leading to nutters on the ticket because of publicity/campaigning from Limbaugh and Tea Party
    2) Corbyn is leader because of open election and well-organised SWP campaign
    Both are self-destructive but unarguably more democratic than decisions made in smoke-filled rooms, etc. Both require a 'purity of political vision' for a candidate to be declared sound.

    Honestly, the original version of this post was fantastic.
  • *back to my holiday*
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,453
    Anorak said:

    Well, bollocks. Computer just ran out of power. Just wrote a long post, too. Here is the I-can't-be-arsed-to-do-all-that-again version...

    There are striking similarities between:
    1) Republican Primaries leading to nutters on the ticket because of publicity/campaigning from Limbaugh and Tea Party
    2) Corbyn is leader because of open election and well-organised SWP campaign
    Both are self-destructive but unarguably more democratic than decisions made in smoke-filled rooms, etc. Both require a 'purity of political vision' for a candidate to be declared sound.

    Honestly, the original version of this post was fantastic.

    Have a look under "drafts" in vanilla forums, it may have saved it.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    He looks like a fairly semi-detached Labourite anyway. Lots of coalitionista tendencies.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Warner,_Baron_Warner
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,401
    Osborne could of course have up to a year AS Prime Minister to improve his credentials in the best PM battle. There's no better way to come across Prime Ministerial than to successfully fulfill the role itself.

    The lack of a Prime Minister in waiting for the Conservatives is an opportunity for Labour should they choose to act closer to the time.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    Comparing those ratings have one thing in common: Corbyn is as likely as Farage to become PM.
    This can explain why:

    Corbyn approval rating by party:

    CON -59
    LAB +47
    UKIP - 59
    LD -16

    Farage approval rating by party;

    CON -15
    LAB -51
    UKIP +81
    LD-42

    UKIP and the Tories are a bigger group than the LD and Labour.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @bbclaurak: Labour sources say it is 'ego driven'
  • WHO????

    Another arron banks big name

    Mike said people are speculating that Douglas Carswell will defect back to the Tory party before the election.

    Do we want him back? Churchill re-ratted.

    My views on TPD returning back to the Tory party can be easily guessed
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    Speedy said:

    Sunder K suggesting might be Lord West.

    Who?
    I don't remember a minister West.
    Ex Admiral briefly brought in under Brown IIRC
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,316

    Anorak said:

    Well, bollocks. Computer just ran out of power. Just wrote a long post, too. Here is the I-can't-be-arsed-to-do-all-that-again version...

    There are striking similarities between:
    1) Republican Primaries leading to nutters on the ticket because of publicity/campaigning from Limbaugh and Tea Party
    2) Corbyn is leader because of open election and well-organised SWP campaign
    Both are self-destructive but unarguably more democratic than decisions made in smoke-filled rooms, etc. Both require a 'purity of political vision' for a candidate to be declared sound.

    Honestly, the original version of this post was fantastic.

    Have a look under "drafts" in vanilla forums, it may have saved it.
    Thanks. "Can't be arsed" strikes again though. I blame the second bottle of Hobgoblin.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @OliverCooper: Lord West lives to quit another day.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Carson seems like he's even more of a lunatic than Trump, which is quite an impressive achievement actually.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GeoffM said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    He looks like a fairly semi-detached Labourite anyway. Lots of coalitionista tendencies.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Warner,_Baron_Warner
    "In April 2013, Lord Warner announced he would vote with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in a key vote in the House of Lords on proposed NHS regulations that Labour claimed would enable companies to bid for almost all health services. He was the only Labour peer to do so."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584

    WHO????

    Another arron banks big name

    Mike said people are speculating that Douglas Carswell will defect back to the Tory party before the election.

    Do we want him back? Churchill re-ratted.

    My views on TPD returning back to the Tory party can be easily guessed
    I hope he does go back to the Tories. It would almost certainly me we've voted to leave the EU.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Anorak said:

    Well, bollocks. Computer just ran out of power. Just wrote a long post, too. Here is the I-can't-be-arsed-to-do-all-that-again version...

    There are striking similarities between:
    1) Republican Primaries leading to nutters on the ticket because of publicity/campaigning from Limbaugh and Tea Party
    2) Corbyn is leader because of open election and well-organised SWP campaign
    Both are self-destructive but unarguably more democratic than decisions made in smoke-filled rooms, etc. Both require a 'purity of political vision' for a candidate to be declared sound.

    Honestly, the original version of this post was fantastic.

    This is not the greatest song in the world, no: this is just a tribute.
    Couldn't remember the greatest song in the world, no: this is a tribute...
    Tenacious D
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
  • isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump's closest rival is Carson and Cruz is on the rise, the GOP base seems in the mood for a populist, anti-establishment candidate and if Trump wins Iowa and NH he is nominee
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    I think it's a fair point. The reasons for disliking Farage are probably more varied than among those who dislike Corbyn. If Corbyn were to lead Labour at the 2020 election I think they could be facing an existential threat.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    Pretty sure that Farage had a net positive rating at one point.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,651
    edited October 2015


    Honestly?
    Yes, a bit.
    Is it wrong for me to want the government to stop fixating on a single issue and get on with governing?
    Is it wrong to want a more balanced parliament with a functioning opposition?
    Yeah, I'm a bit bitter.

    It may not make much difference, but you might consider turning some of your bitterness towards the opposition parties? It really isn't the job of a single party to make sure they have a functioning opposition, particularly when these opposition parties already have the implicit & explicit support of much of the media and the UK establishment.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,316
    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    Cue Chesney Hawkes. (remember him?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Indeed and Carson has neither the money nor organisation of Trump
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
    And this one:

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-03-31/labour-would-not-consider-nhs-monthly-charge/

    "People should be charged a £10 monthly membership fee for using the NHS, a new report says. Co-authored by former Labour health minister Lord Warner"

    And a ton of other stuff from the Blair era.
    Personally I would prefer Warner Bros. to make health policies than Lord Warner.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    isam said:

    @nigel4england

    Outrageously unlucky not to cop on Shelvey and Adam... Adam should def have been booked

    Shelvey was booked so got a return at 1.48, but Adam should have been carded as well
    Definitely, very unlucky.. do you back on Betfair or bookies?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    edited October 2015

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary gets a boost from the first Democratic debate

    CNN/ORC- Democratic Primary
    Clinton 45% (42%)
    Sanders 29% (24%)
    Biden 18% (22%)
    Webb 1% (0%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)
    O’Malley 0% (1%)

    Second Choice
    Biden 36%
    Clinton 25%
    Sanders 21%
    Chafee 4%
    O’Malley 4%
    Webb 1%
    Lessig 0%

    No Biden in race
    Clinton 56% (57%)
    Sanders 33% (28%)
    Webb 2% (0%)
    O’Malley 1% (2%)
    Chafee 0% (0%)
    Lessig 0% (–)

    CNN/ORC- General Election
    vs. Clinton
    Carson 48% (51%)
    Clinton 47% (46%)

    Clinton 50% (48%)
    Trump 45% (48%)

    vs. Sanders
    Carson 48%
    Sanders 46%

    Sanders 53%
    Trump 44%

    vs. Biden
    Biden 52% (47%)
    Carson 44% (50%)

    Biden 53% (54%)
    Trump 43% (44%)

    http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2462140-debate-democrats.html#document/p2

    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Yes, and I think he's a relatively weak candidate. This is the GOP's election to lose.
    Yes but that is precisely the point, the GOP base have already picked 2 moderates who lost, they seem to want a red meat candidate this time, only problem is this is the election a moderate might win. The GOP activists may well follow Labour members and vote with their guts rather than their heads, certainly all the polling at the moment suggests that
  • Anorak said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    Cue Chesney Hawkes. (remember him?)
    The one and only?
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited October 2015

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    Pretty sure that Farage had a net positive rating at one point.
    Prob when Labour voters thought he was costing the Tories seats/votes

    People like the little guy until he starts getting big enough to affect them
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Chief Minister Picardo has tonight just called the Gibraltar General Election for Thursday 26th November.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,875


    Honestly?
    Yes, a bit.
    Is it wrong for me to want the government to stop fixating on a single issue and get on with governing?
    Is it wrong to want a more balanced parliament with a functioning opposition?
    Yeah, I'm a bit bitter.

    It may not make much difference, but you might consider turning some of your bitterness towards the opposition parties? It really isn't the job of a single party to make sure they have a functioning opposition, particularly when these opposition parties already have the implicit & explicit support of much of the media and the UK establishment.
    And the implicit and explicit support of much of the public, too....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,316

    Anorak said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    Cue Chesney Hawkes. (remember him?)
    The one and only?
    There you go. Have a cookie.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
    If even most of us political junkies have not heard of Lord Warner you can be guaranteed Joe Public will not, so bit of a non story
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Carson seems like he's even more of a lunatic than Trump, which is quite an impressive achievement actually.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 19,822
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    Pointing out that Nigel Farage is unpopular isn't partisan. UKIP supporters gloss over that but it's a really important data point of British politics. The noisy minority he presumes to speak for are just that. The quiet majority don't like him.

    I understand your point about small and large parties. But if people in aggregate feel ill-disposed towards Nigel Farage, winning more people to the UKIP cause will in turn lead to more tactical voting against UKIP.

    Nick Clegg managed for a long while to have very positive ratings despite leading a small party and still the Lib Dems underperformed in 2010. So even Nigel Farage outpolling UKIP isn't necessarily all that good news for UKIP.
  • Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Labour sources say it is 'ego driven'

    New politics at work
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    edited October 2015


    This is not the greatest song in the world, no: this is just a tribute.
    Couldn't remember the greatest song in the world, no: this is a tribute...
    Tenacious D

    I was at a gig last weekend where the support act confessed to being a huge Fleetwood Mac fan.

    She played a slightly strange version of The Chain, then one of her original compositions, and the only thing I could think of all the way through was "this is just a tribute..."
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    isam said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    Pretty sure that Farage had a net positive rating at one point.
    Prob when Labour voters thought he was costing the Tories seats/votes

    People like the little guy until he starts getting big enough to affect them
    I'll have a look, but the last opinium poll before the GE still had Farage at -19.
  • Mortimer said:


    Honestly?
    Yes, a bit.
    Is it wrong for me to want the government to stop fixating on a single issue and get on with governing?
    Is it wrong to want a more balanced parliament with a functioning opposition?
    Yeah, I'm a bit bitter.

    It may not make much difference, but you might consider turning some of your bitterness towards the opposition parties? It really isn't the job of a single party to make sure they have a functioning opposition, particularly when these opposition parties already have the implicit & explicit support of much of the media and the UK establishment.
    And the implicit and explicit support of much of the public, too....
    The Scottish or rUK public? If the former, they can explicitly express their support next May in a system designed to give at least some proportionate weight to their views. If the latter, who cares?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 36,517
    @tnewtondunn: Staggered by the bile coming from Labourites towards Lord Warner. He was your future once, one of Blair's smartest ministers.
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