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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approval ratings slump to a net minus 19 points in

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Anorak said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    Cue Chesney Hawkes. (remember him?)
    The one and only?
    Chesney Hawkes has done more tours of Freshers' weeks than he ever did concerts, his song always used to come on about 1am at the student union if I remember
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2015
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    Pointing out that Nigel Farage is unpopular isn't partisan. UKIP supporters gloss over that but it's a really important data point of British politics. The noisy minority he presumes to speak for are just that. The quiet majority don't like him.

    I understand your point about small and large parties. But if people in aggregate feel ill-disposed towards Nigel Farage, winning more people to the UKIP cause will in turn lead to more tactical voting against UKIP.

    Nick Clegg managed for a long while to have very positive ratings despite leading a small party and still the Lib Dems underperformed in 2010. So even Nigel Farage outpolling UKIP isn't necessarily all that good news for UKIP.
    I am surprised you say, so I presume think, that UKIP supporters think Farage is popular with the whole country rather than people disposed to UKIP.. Farage and other Kippers have said they are like Millwall "No one likes us, we don't care"

    Saying "The peoples tribune" made me think your comment wasn't neutral but maybe you were quoting someone who had called him that
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Carson seems like he's even more of a lunatic than Trump, which is quite an impressive achievement actually.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Cruz once did an interview in which he showed his giant portrait of him in the supreme court surrounded by painters who made other portraits of him inside the painting it's self.
  • WHO????

    Another arron banks big name

    Mike said people are speculating that Douglas Carswell will defect back to the Tory party before the election.

    Do we want him back? Churchill re-ratted.

    My views on TPD returning back to the Tory party can be easily guessed
    Not under George given the tpds tweets tonight, slating jc and the genius equally
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    I remember him giving a speech to the NHS Finance Conference and being laughed at (not because he was funny) but because he was so ill informed on a range of NHS topics.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited October 2015
    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Staggered by the bile coming from Labourites towards Lord Warner. He was your future once, one of Blair's smartest ministers.

    Junior under-secretary 8 years ago, not even Brown material, not even once an MP or even a candidate.
  • Re Warner. .. In assuming ogh tweet saying this story was massive, has been quickly deleted?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Staggered by the bile coming from Labourites towards Lord Warner. He was your future once, one of Blair's smartest ministers.

    Oh dear you have to be joking he was worse than Hunt.

    Though marginally better than Lansley.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    ITV news intro stating its official, the Ref did get it wrong in the Scotland game.

    "They Woz robbed" is probably going to be true this time
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Is it that bad? Okay, so it could be in so far as it may make it harder for Osborne to get the gig against other Tories. But is it really that surprising that the Chancellor of five years only ties with the LOTO in terms of best PM? Osborne is doing the unpopular stuff, Corbyn is just spouting off his usual rubbish. The Tory majority with Osborne as leader would be as big as it would with any other leader so long as they are up against Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited October 2015
    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.

    Osborne led with Tory voters, Boris had a comfortable lead with voters as a whole. Though I don't think Corbyn will still be Labour leader by late 2019 when Cameron steps down
  • Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Staggered by the bile coming from Labourites towards Lord Warner. He was your future once, one of Blair's smartest ministers.

    Junior under-secretary 8 years ago, not even Brown material, not even once an MP or even a candidate.
    Well, Labourites, soon there will be no-one left to speak for you...
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates.

    Are they allowed to intervene in this or not?
  • Moses_ said:

    1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates.

    Are they allowed to intervene in this or not?

    They can't prop up a steelworks, that would be state aid.

    Perhaps there are more creative options, but basically the one people want can't be done.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    Pointing out that Nigel Farage is unpopular isn't partisan. UKIP supporters gloss over that but it's a really important data point of British politics. The noisy minority he presumes to speak for are just that. The quiet majority don't like him.

    I understand your point about small and large parties. But if people in aggregate feel ill-disposed towards Nigel Farage, winning more people to the UKIP cause will in turn lead to more tactical voting against UKIP.

    Nick Clegg managed for a long while to have very positive ratings despite leading a small party and still the Lib Dems underperformed in 2010. So even Nigel Farage outpolling UKIP isn't necessarily all that good news for UKIP.
    I am surprised you say, so I presume think, that UKIP supporters think Farage is popular with the whole country rather than people disposed to UKIP.. Farage and other Kippers have said they are like Millwall "No one likes us, we don't care"

    Saying "The peoples tribune" made me think your comment wasn't neutral but maybe you were quoting someone who had called him that
    Having absolute loyalty inside your party is one requirement to do well in approval ratings, example:

    Approval/Disapproval rating for leaders in own party (Opinium):

    Cameron: 91/2
    Corbyn: 58/11
    Farage: 84/3

    Depending on the size of your party or the ratio of left/right parties you can do very good.
    Corbyn and Farage have the unfortunate position of the centre-left being too small or their parties being too small.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Carson seems like he's even more of a lunatic than Trump, which is quite an impressive achievement actually.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Cruz once did an interview in which he showed his giant portrait of him in the supreme court surrounded by painters who made other portraits of him inside the painting it's self.
    Yes, Cruz makes Trump look modest and mild, he is fiercely bright, his Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant" however he is a Democrats wet dream as GOP nominee. If Trump does become nominee and Hillary beats him though I can see Cruz being the nominee in 2020 before the GOP finally move back to the centre
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    This will take the State of the Parties in the Lords (once all announced Peers have been introduced) to:

    Con 251
    Lab 215
    LD 112
    Crossbench 175

    So even with good Crossbench support Con is still sure to lose if Lab + LD join forces (very unusual to get above approx 40 net support from Crossbenchers).

    But it's starting to get closer - another net 20 on the Con score and they start to have a chance.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    This seems to be filling a disturbing pattern, that others have previously pointed out on here.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-34570381

    Seven men from Bristol and Newport have been charged by police as part of an investigation into child sexual exploitation. The men, aged between 21 and 28, face a string of allegations including rape, trafficking and supplying drugs.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Moses_ said:

    1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates.

    Are they allowed to intervene in this or not?

    They can't prop up a steelworks, that would be state aid.

    Perhaps there are more creative options, but basically the one people want can't be done.
    Each and every one of those workers should vote LEAVE.

    It's being in the EU which stops us deciding if we want to intervene or not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    75 minutes to go before polls close in eastern Canada.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited October 2015
    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
    If even most of us political junkies have not heard of Lord Warner you can be guaranteed Joe Public will not, so bit of a non story
    From Wikipedia:

    "In April 2013, Lord Warner announced he would vote with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in a key vote in the House of Lords on proposed NHS regulations that Labour claimed would enable companies to bid for almost all health services. He was the only Labour peer to do so."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Warner,_Baron_Warner
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Moses_ said:

    1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates.

    Are they allowed to intervene in this or not?

    De Jure, no.
    De facto, yes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Matt, awesome as ever:

    https://t.co/25nbjBrTvK
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Carson seems like he's even more of a lunatic than Trump, which is quite an impressive achievement actually.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Cruz once did an interview in which he showed his giant portrait of him in the supreme court surrounded by painters who made other portraits of him inside the painting it's self.
    Yes, Cruz makes Trump look modest and mild, he is fiercely bright, his Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant" however he is a Democrats wet dream as GOP nominee. If Trump does become nominee and Hillary beats him though I can see Cruz being the nominee in 2020 before the GOP finally move back to the centre
    If Hillary wins in 2016 she will lose in 2020.
    Men already hate her and an economic recession will be due.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,546
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
    If even most of us political junkies have not heard of Lord Warner you can be guaranteed Joe Public will not, so bit of a non story
    I agree, but there might be a more subtle effect.

    I'm currently reading 'The Spin Doctor's Diary' by Lance Price, which covers his years in Number 10 between 1998 and 2001. When Shaun Wooodward defected from the Conservatives to Labour, he helped bring Ivan Massow over in the same direction.

    I guess that Douglas Carswell also played a part in Mark Reckless's move as well.

    So the man himself may not be much of a loss, or cause too much bad publicity. But it sets a precedent, and if he may be able to persuade other disillusioned Labour figures to also resign the whip.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    New NBC/WSJ GOP national nomination poll

    Trump 25 (21)
    Carson 22 (20)
    Rubio 13 (11)
    Cruz 9 (5)
    Bush 8 (7)
    Fiorina 7 (11)
    Huckabee 3 (2)
    Kasich 3 (6)
    Paul 2 (3)
    Christie 1 (3)
    http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-trump-hits-highest-mark-yet-carson-close-behind-n447291
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
    If even most of us political junkies have not heard of Lord Warner you can be guaranteed Joe Public will not, so bit of a non story
    From Wikipedia:

    "In April 2013, Lord Warner announced he would vote with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in a key vote in the House of Lords on proposed NHS regulations that Labour claimed would enable companies to bid for almost all health services. He was the only Labour peer to do so."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Warner,_Baron_Warner
    Yes and even you had to wiki it!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2015
    GeoffM said:

    Moses_ said:

    1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates.

    Are they allowed to intervene in this or not?

    They can't prop up a steelworks, that would be state aid.

    Perhaps there are more creative options, but basically the one people want can't be done.
    Each and every one of those workers should vote LEAVE.

    It's being in the EU which stops us deciding if we want to intervene or not.
    Even if we were out of the EU I'd hope we wouldn't be intervening directly. A lowering of state aid across Europe is one of the good parts of the EU (though it still has further to go in many nations, not ours).
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION Corbyn's net -19% approval rating with Opinium is not as bad as UKIPs Farage who is on minus 20%

    Comparing those ratings cant be of any use when one party is on 32% and the other 15%
    I disagree. It's not the whole story, of course. But any idea that Nigel Farage is the people's tribune is blown out of the water by that rating.
    It would be nice to be able to discuss this without partisan comments.. I am intrigued by working stuff like this out.. and to me it seems a massive factor to take into consideration that the leaders of big parties have more people that will like them just because they lead a big party (and so less potential dislikers) than someone who leads a small one, esp one that nicks voters from and costs that party seats.
    I think it's a fair point. The reasons for disliking Farage are probably more varied than among those who dislike Corbyn. If Corbyn were to lead Labour at the 2020 election I think they could be facing an existential threat.
    I think the existential threat is here and now. If Corbyn leads Labour in 2020, the threat's matured.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited October 2015
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Carson seems like he's even more of a lunatic than Trump, which is quite an impressive achievement actually.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Cruz once did an interview in which he showed his giant portrait of him in the supreme court surrounded by painters who made other portraits of him inside the painting it's self.
    Yes, Cruz makes Trump look modest and mild, he is fiercely bright, his Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant" however he is a Democrats wet dream as GOP nominee. If Trump does become nominee and Hillary beats him though I can see Cruz being the nominee in 2020 before the GOP finally move back to the centre
    If Hillary wins in 2016 she will lose in 2020.
    Men already hate her and an economic recession will be due.
    No, she is the Democrats Nixon, if she wins in 2016 the GOP will pick Cruz, their McGovern, in 2020 and she will win a landslide. Though whether she lasts a second term as he did not is debateable. White men have always hated her, with women and minorities she still has a comfortable lead and we had the biggest recession in a century just 7 years ago, things are now on the mend.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    New NBC/WSJ GOP national nomination poll

    Trump 25 (21)
    Carson 22 (20)
    Rubio 13 (11)
    Cruz 9 (5)
    Bush 8 (7)
    Fiorina 7 (11)
    Huckabee 3 (2)
    Kasich 3 (6)
    Paul 2 (3)
    Christie 1 (3)
    http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-trump-hits-highest-mark-yet-carson-close-behind-n447291

    Christie might not make it to the CNBC debate, they have a 2.5% threshold in the polling average since the last debate.

    Otherwise business as usual, Kasich collapses again in favour of flavour of the month for the establishment, while Fiorina collapsing back down in favour of the other non-politicians.

    Key thing here is that the establishment vote is 25%, up only 1 point from the last NBC poll.
    The anti-establishment vote is 63%, up 6 points from the last one.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Moses_ said:

    1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates.

    Are they allowed to intervene in this or not?

    De Jure, no.
    De facto, yes.
    The last time I can remember hearing De jure and De facto used was an episode of Yes Prime Minister.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
    And this one:

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-03-31/labour-would-not-consider-nhs-monthly-charge/

    "People should be charged a £10 monthly membership fee for using the NHS, a new report says. Co-authored by former Labour health minister Lord Warner"

    And a ton of other stuff from the Blair era.
    Personally I would prefer Warner Bros. to make health policies than Lord Warner.
    Daffy doc?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    "THE" Norman Warner?
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/11/norman-warner-tackles-birminghams-childrens-services-michael-gove

    This one presumably
    If even most of us political junkies have not heard of Lord Warner you can be guaranteed Joe Public will not, so bit of a non story
    I agree, but there might be a more subtle effect.

    I'm currently reading 'The Spin Doctor's Diary' by Lance Price, which covers his years in Number 10 between 1998 and 2001. When Shaun Wooodward defected from the Conservatives to Labour, he helped bring Ivan Massow over in the same direction.

    I guess that Douglas Carswell also played a part in Mark Reckless's move as well.

    So the man himself may not be much of a loss, or cause too much bad publicity. But it sets a precedent, and if he may be able to persuade other disillusioned Labour figures to also resign the whip.
    Certainly John Mann or Simon Danczuk are ones to watch
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    New NBC/WSJ GOP national nomination poll

    Trump 25 (21)
    Carson 22 (20)
    Rubio 13 (11)
    Cruz 9 (5)
    Bush 8 (7)
    Fiorina 7 (11)
    Huckabee 3 (2)
    Kasich 3 (6)
    Paul 2 (3)
    Christie 1 (3)
    http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-trump-hits-highest-mark-yet-carson-close-behind-n447291

    Christie might not make it to the CNBC debate, they have a 2.5% threshold in the polling average since the last debate.

    Otherwise business as usual, Kasich collapses again in favour of flavour of the month for the establishment, while Fiorina collapsing back down in favour of the other non-politicians.

    Key thing here is that the establishment vote is 25%, up only 1 point from the last NBC poll.
    The anti-establishment vote is 63%, up 6 points from the last one.
    Indeed, the populist bandwagon rides on
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Very good article on the parlous overall state of the Democratic party in the US:

    http://www.vox.com/2015/10/19/9565119/democrats-in-deep-trouble
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Anorak said:

    Well, bollocks. Computer just ran out of power. Just wrote a long post, too. Here is the I-can't-be-arsed-to-do-all-that-again version...

    There are striking similarities between:
    1) Republican Primaries leading to nutters on the ticket because of publicity/campaigning from Limbaugh and Tea Party
    2) Corbyn is leader because of open election and well-organised SWP campaign
    Both are self-destructive but unarguably more democratic than decisions made in smoke-filled rooms, etc. Both require a 'purity of political vision' for a candidate to be declared sound.

    Honestly, the original version of this post was fantastic.

    There's an even bigger similarity - both represent a threat to the established order. Is Donald Trump 'nuts'? Nuttier than George W Bush's less capable brother? Hardly. He's a successful businessman (albeit one who got an almighty hand up, but what massively successful person didn't?). You don't get to be that by being nuts. Aggressive and obnoxious, certainly, unscrupulous, undoubtedly, but not nuts.

    I'm afraid its just the standard establishment paint job for everyone outside it, especially if they lead (shock horror) popular/populist movements.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.

    Osborne led with Tory voters, Boris had a comfortable lead with voters as a whole. Though I don't think Corbyn will still be Labour leader by late 2019 when Cameron steps down
    We need to choose someone new. The only way a party can avoid being seen as old and tired during a third term is internal renewal.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Scott_P said:


    This is not the greatest song in the world, no: this is just a tribute.
    Couldn't remember the greatest song in the world, no: this is a tribute...
    Tenacious D

    I was at a gig last weekend where the support act confessed to being a huge Fleetwood Mac fan.

    She played a slightly strange version of The Chain, then one of her original compositions, and the only thing I could think of all the way through was "this is just a tribute..."
    post Greeny then, so not so good
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    How not to stretcher an injured player off the pitch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDg_enBc2ZQ
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    I remember him giving a speech to the NHS Finance Conference and being laughed at (not because he was funny) but because he was so ill informed on a range of NHS topics.
    Telling them to feed the elderly was he?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Moses

    'Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that. '


    For sure the Chinese dumping breaks trade agreements but you are right that it will never be enforced.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A couple of polls have just come out pointing to a possible Liberal majority in the Canadian election, putting them on 40% and 39%:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015#Campaign_period
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
    What's your suggestion?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    The redundant steel workers should all retrain as bankers, then they would have a job for life.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.

    Osborne led with Tory voters, Boris had a comfortable lead with voters as a whole. Though I don't think Corbyn will still be Labour leader by late 2019 when Cameron steps down
    You think that Corbyn's demise may have parallels with Rasputin's?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Carson seems like he's even more of a lunatic than Trump, which is quite an impressive achievement actually.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Cruz once did an interview in which he showed his giant portrait of him in the supreme court surrounded by painters who made other portraits of him inside the painting it's self.
    Yes, Cruz makes Trump look modest and mild, he is fiercely bright, his Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant" however he is a Democrats wet dream as GOP nominee. If Trump does become nominee and Hillary beats him though I can see Cruz being the nominee in 2020 before the GOP finally move back to the centre
    If Hillary wins in 2016 she will lose in 2020.
    Men already hate her and an economic recession will be due.
    No, she is the Democrats Nixon, if she wins in 2016 the GOP will pick Cruz, their McGovern, in 2020 and she will win a landslide. Though whether she lasts a second term as he did not is debateable. White men have always hated her, with women and minorities she still has a comfortable lead and we had the biggest recession in a century just 7 years ago, things are now on the mend.
    If Hillary wins in 2016 it will be because she is a woman, however she is mercurial, she will open a huge gender gap but with men overfilling that.
    And there will be a recession in the US before 2020, the record without a recession was 10 years, 2020 will be 11 years since the last one, chances of a recession are over 50% from 2017 onwards.

    Hillary, if she wins in 2016, will be the american Julia Gillard.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Yeah, I haven't heard of him either

    Guardian's @patrickwintour reports Labour peer resigns saying party no longer credible. @itvnews understand it's Lord Norman Warner

    I remember him giving a speech to the NHS Finance Conference and being laughed at (not because he was funny) but because he was so ill informed on a range of NHS topics.
    Telling them to feed the elderly was he?
    No claiming the introduction of Agenda For Change was cost neutral. Only person in the room to think so.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    If China is dumping then that can be taken up with the WTO (don't laugh). The energy price is a direct result of government policy set by Labour and continued by Cameron's crowd. Repealing the ludicrous Climate Change Act would be a good start in trying to preserve what remains of industry in the UK and hence reduce the hemorrhaging of the nation's wealth, but that will not happen all the time it is only the little people that are hurt.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    I wonder if the beardy lefty party leader will resign tomorrow? From first to distant third during the campaign has been a shocker for the NDP.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    How not to stretcher an injured player off the pitch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDg_enBc2ZQ

    Why are the Chuckle-Brothers acting as medics?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited October 2015
    Until there is a real poll that opinion pollsters can be judged against, given the disaster of GE 2015, treat all with a HUGE pinch of salt.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
    What's your suggestion?
    I understand there are shortages in some of the skilled and semi-skilled construction jobs, such as plasterers, pipe fitters etc. Some of the more talented workers could even be pushed into design fields which are exploding in the UK.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Osborne vs Corbyn would IMO result in a seriously hung parliament, with UKIP and the Lib Dems surging.

    PBTories can say what they like about Corbyn's policies - for your average floating voter, it really does come down to whether they think the leader is likeable, and Osborne fares even worse on that measure than Ed and possibly even Brown.
  • notme said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    How not to stretcher an injured player off the pitch:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDg_enBc2ZQ

    Why are the Chuckle-Brothers acting as medics?
    They think he's acting, they want to take him off the pitch so he has to wait to get back on.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    The redundant steel workers should all retrain as bankers, then they would have a job for life.

    I know you're being ironic, but that's just it - we can't all be bankers, only so much banking is needed in the world. Besides, like any other industry, all the lower tier positions are being off-shored. I know someone who works for RBS; he spends most of his day shouting at his junior team from India over the phone. The service is awful, personnel keeps changing all the time, but evidently it's cheaper, a lot cheaper.

    So I ask again, what are we going to train these steel workers as - Sky TV salesmen? Estate agents? Burger van workers? Whilst holding any job is laudable, all these economic activities do is cannibalise our existing wealth (for which read debt).
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    A piece of Americana for you -

    Over the weekend there was a bit of a discussion here on everything from whether rigby kicks more than American football, which then got into which was the first to have a rulebook (Rugby seems to have won that).

    On Saturday there was a college football game for the ages with one of the most incredible endings I've seen.

    You'll like this even if you're not a sports fan.

    Michigan State is playing at Michigan. State is a really good team, Michigan is rebuilding under former 49ers coach (and Michigan alum) Jim Harbaugh. There are 10 seconds on the clock, State has no timeouts left, and Michigan has to punt, leading by 3. Make the punt and the game is effectively over.

    The punter - Blake O'Neill - muffs the ball. In American football it is drilled into you - if you don't have control of the ball, fall on the ball. Just do it! O'Neill chases it to pick it up - an almost unpardonable sin - and it gets knocked out of his hand by Michigan State's #20 Jalen Watts-Jackson, who runs it in for a touchdown.

    What we didn't know for a moment or two afterwards was that #20 broke his hip landing in the end zone. His team mates jumped onto him and there was a huge pile of teammates with him in agony on the bottom screaming for them to get off. The touchdown meant State won.

    But what of Mr O'Neill, who has since received death threats and all manner of insults via Twitter, which seems to have become a vehicle for idiots to express their opinions?

    He is Australian, and in aussie rules football you chase after the ball and keep playing. His instincts obviously took over.

    Anyway here it is, with the added attraction that you can actually hear the commentator losing his mind on-air. It only runs 48 seconds.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBlgN85wB6U
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Until there is a real poll that opinion pollsters can be judged against, given the disaster of GE 2015, treat all with a HUGE pinch of salt.

    While voting intention polls were wildly off-base, the "best PM" polls were very accurate, with Cameron having a huge lead over Miliband throughout.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Conservatives winning most seats in Canada is available at 6.6 with Betfair exchange:

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.119830308
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    A piece of Americana for you -

    Not sharing the Colts "worst play ever" then?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: .@BBCAllegra the Chancellor is not for turning on #taxcredits. Spot on. treasury & No 10 holding line. #newsnight
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    JEO said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.

    Osborne led with Tory voters, Boris had a comfortable lead with voters as a whole. Though I don't think Corbyn will still be Labour leader by late 2019 when Cameron steps down
    We need to choose someone new. The only way a party can avoid being seen as old and tired during a third term is internal renewal.
    On historical trends it will be Osborne or Hammond
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
    What's your suggestion?
    I understand there are shortages in some of the skilled and semi-skilled construction jobs, such as plasterers, pipe fitters etc. Some of the more talented workers could even be pushed into design fields which are exploding in the UK.
    Construction is notoriously unstable, not to mention the fact that you are surrendering an economic activity that displaces an import and thus keeps wealth within the country and replacing it with one that is effectively economically neutral. What are we all going to do when the country has shut all of its factories and built mock-Tudor Barclay homes all over the brown fields?

    As for these steelworkers bursting on to the burgeoning 'design fields' whatever they are, I will merely say that design is another service that can, will, and probably is, transferring to India as we speak.
  • Typical, I give up writing threads for a while, and there's a huge electoral reform story brewing

    Tories Threaten To Suspend House Of Lords If It Kills Off Tax Credit Cuts As George Osborne Faces Down Critics

    http://huff.to/1M2Ke2j
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.

    Osborne led with Tory voters, Boris had a comfortable lead with voters as a whole. Though I don't think Corbyn will still be Labour leader by late 2019 when Cameron steps down
    You think that Corbyn's demise may have parallels with Rasputin's?
    Or IDS', either way Mandelson will be Prince Yusopov
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    While mentioning 2016, new post debate poll from N.Hampshire, Sanders increasing his lead over Hillary to 10 points without Biden (38/48) , 8 points with Biden (30/38):

    http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/blog_posts/FPU-BH-1015-Dem.pdf

    Interesting part is that Sanders is getting really close to 50%.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Owen Smith is one of the shadow cabinet's better ones (though "better" is very much a relative term here).
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    You wonder what Labour could do with a decent leader. I get the feeling the Conservatives are opening themselves to a number of issues that will stick to them in the minds of the voting public.

    FPT. Rubio is now an option. Take out Jeb, who's campaign seems to be built around just outstaying others by dint of plenty of funding, and he is a relative Republican insider. The Carsons and Trumps are all well and dandy but the party itself will not play with them if it can avoid it. It likes one of its own operators.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:
    When I lived in Canada over 30 years ago, there was a wonderful comedian called Dave Broadfoot, who created a character David Broadfoot, MP for Kicking Horse Pass for the New Apathetic Party.

    He also created Big Bobby Clobber, a hockey player who had obviously taken a few too many hits.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Norman Tebbit comes out against tax credit cuts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    He does but I think that's misleading. I don't see Trump picking up many transfers. In other words, he has a lot of first-choice support but is sufficiently Marmite to start stuttering as other candidates drop out, even without his recent dip; it's not a like-for-like comparison.
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Car.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Cruz once did an interview in which he showed his giant portrait of him in the supreme court surrounded by painters who made other portraits of him inside the painting it's self.
    Yes, Cruz makes Trump look modest and mild, he is fiercely bright, his Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant" however he is a Democrats wet dream as GOP nominee. If Trump does become nominee and Hillary beats him though I can see Cruz being the nominee in 2020 before the GOP finally move back to the centre
    If Hillary wins in 2016 she will lose in 2020.
    Men already hate her and an economic recession will be due.
    No, she is the Democrats Nixon, if she wins in 2016 the GOP will pick Cruz, their McGovern, in 2020 and
    If Hilla

    Hillary, if she wins in 2016, will be the american Julia Gillard.
    There was no serious recession for 16 years from 1992 - 2008, coincidentally half of that time was taken up by the last Clinton presidency and that takes us to 2024 when Hillary leaves. Julia Gillard assassinated Rudd to get elected and was never elected to the role in the first place, she was also the more leftwing of the 2, Hillary is the centrist candidate in next year's Democratic primaries
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Tim_B said:

    A piece of Americana for you -

    Over the weekend there was a bit of a discussion here on everything from whether rigby kicks more than American football, which then got into which was the first to have a rulebook (Rugby seems to have won that).

    On Saturday there was a college football game for the ages with one of the most incredible endings I've seen.

    You'll like this even if you're not a sports fan.

    Michigan State is playing at Michigan. State is a really good team, Michigan is rebuilding under former 49ers coach (and Michigan alum) Jim Harbaugh. There are 10 seconds on the clock, State has no timeouts left, and Michigan has to punt, leading by 3. Make the punt and the game is effectively over.

    The punter - Blake O'Neill - muffs the ball. In American football it is drilled into you - if you don't have control of the ball, fall on the ball. Just do it! O'Neill chases it to pick it up - an almost unpardonable sin - and it gets knocked out of his hand by Michigan State's #20 Jalen Watts-Jackson, who runs it in for a touchdown.

    What we didn't know for a moment or two afterwards was that #20 broke his hip landing in the end zone. His team mates jumped onto him and there was a huge pile of teammates with him in agony on the bottom screaming for them to get off. The touchdown meant State won.

    But what of Mr O'Neill, who has since received death threats and all manner of insults via Twitter, which seems to have become a vehicle for idiots to express their opinions?

    He is Australian, and in aussie rules football you chase after the ball and keep playing. His instincts obviously took over.

    Anyway here it is, with the added attraction that you can actually hear the commentator losing his mind on-air. It only runs 48 seconds.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBlgN85wB6U

    It's like an explosion in a tupperware factory.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.

    Osborne led with Tory voters, Boris had a comfortable lead with voters as a whole. Though I don't think Corbyn will still be Labour leader by late 2019 when Cameron steps down
    We need to choose someone new. The only way a party can avoid being seen as old and tired during a third term is internal renewal.
    On historical trends it will be Osborne or Hammond
    I actually think, despite not being a young face, Hammond could seem like a new direction. Rather than young posh boys it's going to be the more elder statesman type. That could be the strongest card against a reckless Labour Party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    Owen Smith is one of the shadow cabinet's better ones (though "better" is very much a relative term here).

    He had a rather disappointing election result this year. The LD vote collapsed by 18.3 points but he was only able to add 2.3 points to his share.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontypridd_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
    What's your suggestion?
    I understand there are shortages in some of the skilled and semi-skilled construction jobs, such as plasterers, pipe fitters etc. Some of the more talented workers could even be pushed into design fields which are exploding in the UK.
    I am sure HMG have a plan. After all the collapse of the UK steel industry which seems to be under way is a direct result of policies being pursued by Cameron and Co and they would have thought out the likely consequences and planned for them. Wouldn't they?

    Thirty years ago the Conservatives were in charge when the coalmining industry packed up and then they had no plan as to how to deal with the human tragedy that was bound to ensue. Surely the Conservative Party would not make the same mistake twice.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    LuckyGuy1983,

    I'm on a phone right now so can't get into a detailed economic debate. Sorry.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    A piece of Americana for you -

    Not sharing the Colts "worst play ever" then?
    Some things are just plain dumb and inexplicable, and that was one of them, not worthy of comment. A receiver snaps to a safety in front of 3 defenders. Even the official sounded incredulous about it.

    But here it is. What were they thinking? Dumb as a box of rocks....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtzpdH_uPM
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    A piece of Americana for you -

    Over the weekend there was a bit of a discussion here on everything from whether rigby kicks more than American football, which then got into which was the first to have a rulebook (Rugby seems to have won that).

    On Saturday there was a college football game for the ages with one of the most incredible endings I've seen.

    You'll like this even if you're not a sports fan.

    Michigan State is playing at Michigan. State is a really good team, Michigan is rebuilding under former 49ers coach (and Michigan alum) Jim Harbaugh. There are 10 seconds on the clock, State has no timeouts left, and Michigan has to punt, leading by 3. Make the punt and the game is effectively over.

    The punter - Blake O'Neill - muffs the ball. In American football it is drilled into you - if you don't have control of the ball, fall on the ball. Just do it! O'Neill chases it to pick it up - an almost unpardonable sin - and it gets knocked out of his hand by Michigan State's #20 Jalen Watts-Jackson, who runs it in for a touchdown.

    What we didn't know for a moment or two afterwards was that #20 broke his hip landing in the end zone. His team mates jumped onto him and there was a huge pile of teammates with him in agony on the bottom screaming for them to get off. The touchdown meant State won.

    But what of Mr O'Neill, who has since received death threats and all manner of insults via Twitter, which seems to have become a vehicle for idiots to express their opinions?

    He is Australian, and in aussie rules football you chase after the ball and keep playing. His instincts obviously took over.

    Anyway here it is, with the added attraction that you can actually hear the commentator losing his mind on-air. It only runs 48 seconds.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBlgN85wB6U

    It's like an explosion in a tupperware factory.
    :)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    Typical, I give up writing threads for a while, and there's a huge electoral reform story brewing

    Tories Threaten To Suspend House Of Lords If It Kills Off Tax Credit Cuts As George Osborne Faces Down Critics

    http://huff.to/1M2Ke2j

    I think they are just playing hardball.

    In any case, why not just put it in a Bill? It would then be a money bill and the Lords wouldn't be able to touch it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The service is awful, personnel keeps changing all the time, but evidently it's cheaper, a lot cheaper.

    The retail banking model is utterly broken in the UK.

    Banks are expected to maintain high cost service infrastructure (CHAPS, FP, ATM, etc) and are shouted at (Ulster Bank) when it breaks down.

    But customers refuse to pay for this infrastructure (free current accounts). And the banks get sued for cross-selling (PPI) and regulated on charges they can make for infringment of account T&Cs (CC rules letter fees). Even when they make a profit, they pay an 8% surcharge on profits, and are now required to hold excess capital to take account of deposit flight risk even though the Bank of England overnight rates mean it is virtually impossible to earn money on deposits.

    So they try to reduce costs. And people complain when they close branches and complain when staff are offshored.

    Just f**king pay for th product, alright? Then the sector might f**king work.

    (For the avoidance of doubt, I am not a retail banker)
  • HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely this is a truly terrible poll for Osborne.

    Con 5 points ahead yet he only ties with Corbyn for best PM.

    Everyone saying Corbyn is unelectable - on these numbers Osborne would be a disastrous choice for Con.

    A bit surprising as in another poll last week Osborne was only 6 points behind Boris for best Con leader.

    Osborne led with Tory voters, Boris had a comfortable lead with voters as a whole. Though I don't think Corbyn will still be Labour leader by late 2019 when Cameron steps down
    You think that Corbyn's demise may have parallels with Rasputin's?
    Are Boney M bringing out a disco stomper?

  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited October 2015

    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
    What's your suggestion?
    I understand there are shortages in some of the skilled and semi-skilled construction jobs, such as plasterers, pipe fitters etc. Some of the more talented workers could even be pushed into design fields which are exploding in the UK.
    I am sure HMG have a plan. After all the collapse of the UK steel industry which seems to be under way is a direct result of policies being pursued by Cameron and Co and they would have thought out the likely consequences and planned for them. Wouldn't they?

    Thirty years ago the Conservatives were in charge when the coalmining industry packed up and then they had no plan as to how to deal with the human tragedy that was bound to ensue. Surely the Conservative Party would not make the same mistake twice.
    The collapse of steelmaking? That's directly attributable to the crackpot green energy policies engineered by the previous Labour government and Ed Milliband, which made the cost of production sky rocket, relative to cheap Chinese energy.

    The same policies have caused the closure of so many power plants, such that the UK faces the likely and serious prospect of blackouts this Winter.

    As for coal mines, more closed under Labour. What did they do about it?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Car.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Yes, Cruz makes Trump look modest and mild, he is fiercely bright, his Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant" however he is a Democrats wet dream as GOP nominee. If Trump does become nominee and Hillary beats him though I can see Cruz being the nominee in 2020 before the GOP finally move back to the centre
    If Hillary wins in 2016 she will lose in 2020.
    Men already hate her and an economic recession will be due.
    No, she is the Democrats Nixon, if she wins in 2016 the GOP will pick Cruz, their McGovern, in 2020 and
    If Hilla

    Hillary, if she wins in 2016, will be the american Julia Gillard.
    There was no serious recession for 16 years from 1992 - 2008, coincidentally half of that time was taken up by the last Clinton presidency and that takes us to 2024 when Hillary leaves. Julia Gillard assassinated Rudd to get elected and was never elected to the role in the first place, she was also the more leftwing of the 2, Hillary is the centrist candidate in next year's Democratic primaries
    The record in america is 10 years, from 1990-2000, not 16.
    Gillard was hated by more men than loved by women, Hillary will fall the same way, plus a recession will prove that thought she maybe a woman she is still incompetent in her job.

    Her resume is not all confidence inspiring, being the wife of Bill is the best think she ever did, that gave her a senate seat in N.Y. and the state department under Obama, which she has a terrible record in both.
    Hillary is just there because she married Bill, not because she has merits or capabilities, that's why I have low confidence in her.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Apparently big promos for Star Wars: the force awakens on Monday Night Football tonight.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited October 2015
    watford30 said:

    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
    What's your suggestion?
    I understand there are shortages in some of the skilled and semi-skilled construction jobs, such as plasterers, pipe fitters etc. Some of the more talented workers could even be pushed into design fields which are exploding in the UK.
    I am sure HMG have a plan. After all the collapse of the UK steel industry which seems to be under way is a direct result of policies being pursued by Cameron and Co and they would have thought out the likely consequences and planned for them. Wouldn't they?

    Thirty years ago the Conservatives were in charge when the coalmining industry packed up and then they had no plan as to how to deal with the human tragedy that was bound to ensue. Surely the Conservative Party would not make the same mistake twice.
    The collapse of steelmaking? That's directly attributable to the crackpot green energy policies engineered by the previous Labour government and Ed Milliband, which made the cost of production sky rocket, relative to cheap Chinese energy.

    The same policies have caused the closure of so many power plants, such that the UK faces the likely and serious prospect of blackouts this Winter.

    As for coal mines, more closed under Labour. What did they do about it?
    Policies supported by the Tories and beefed up by the coalition.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    Typical, I give up writing threads for a while, and there's a huge electoral reform story brewing

    Tories Threaten To Suspend House Of Lords If It Kills Off Tax Credit Cuts As George Osborne Faces Down Critics

    http://huff.to/1M2Ke2j

    Surely there would have to be legislation to suspend the Lords (which would have to go through the Lords!) and which would take at least a year to go through Parliament.

    Seems totally unrealistic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Y0kel said:

    You wonder what Labour could do with a decent leader. I get the feeling the Conservatives are opening themselves to a number of issues that will stick to them in the minds of the voting public.

    FPT. Rubio is now an option. Take out Jeb, who's campaign seems to be built around just outstaying others by dint of plenty of funding, and he is a relative Republican insider. The Carsons and Trumps are all well and dandy but the party itself will not play with them if it can avoid it. It likes one of its own operators.

    Yes, but the party establishment in the end does not vote for the candidate
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Charles said:

    The service is awful, personnel keeps changing all the time, but evidently it's cheaper, a lot cheaper.

    The retail banking model is utterly broken in the UK.

    Banks are expected to maintain high cost service infrastructure (CHAPS, FP, ATM, etc) and are shouted at (Ulster Bank) when it breaks down.

    But customers refuse to pay for this infrastructure (free current accounts). And the banks get sued for cross-selling (PPI) and regulated on charges they can make for infringment of account T&Cs (CC rules letter fees). Even when they make a profit, they pay an 8% surcharge on profits, and are now required to hold excess capital to take account of deposit flight risk even though the Bank of England overnight rates mean it is virtually impossible to earn money on deposits.

    So they try to reduce costs. And people complain when they close branches and complain when staff are offshored.

    Just f**king pay for th product, alright? Then the sector might f**king work.

    (For the avoidance of doubt, I am not a retail banker)
    Banks can make decent money off of guaranteeing letters of credit and so forth, Barclays have done better than us out of our main contract this year for sure !

    With personal banking though, they're throwing money at us all. I've signed up for 2 new current accounts this year and am happy to take the FSCS protected largesse of TSB as the most recent example.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Car.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    If Hillary wins in 2016 she will lose in 2020.
    Men already hate her and an economic recession will be due.
    No, she is the Democrats Nixon, if she wins in 2016 the GOP will pick Cruz, their McGovern, in 2020 and
    If Hilla

    Hillary, if she wins in 2016, will be the american Julia Gillard.
    There was no serious recession for 16 years from 1992 - 2008, coincidentally half of that time was taken up by the last Clinton presidency and that takes us to 2024 when Hillary leaves. Julia Gillard assassinated Rudd to get elected and was never elected to the role in the first place, she was also the more leftwing of the 2, Hillary is the centrist candidate in next year's Democratic primaries
    The record in america is 10 years, from 1990-2000, not 16.
    Gillard was hated by more men than loved by women, Hillary will fall the same way, plus a recession will prove that thought she maybe a woman she is still incompetent in her job.

    Her resume is not all confidence inspiring, being the wife of Bill is the best think she ever did, that gave her a senate seat in N.Y. and the state department under Obama, which she has a terrible record in both.
    Hillary is just there because she married Bill, not because she has merits or capabilities, that's why I have low confidence in her.
    She was a very successful lawyer in AK, although some of her billing records did disappear mysteriously and then were subsequently found at the White House some years later.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    Tim_B said:

    Apparently big promos for Star Wars: the force awakens on Monday Night Football tonight.

    Remind me not to watch it, Star Wars VII is four Star Wars movies too many, they are simply ruining the franchise after the third one.

    Goodnight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Those are not spectacular numbers for her. She'll get the nomination but I think that'll be it for her.
    She beats Trump by 5 points and Trump still has a comfortable lead for the GOP nomination
    Trump beats every candidate in a match to match contest with the exception of Carson according to the opinion polls.
    Car.
    Cruz is even more fanatical and these three seem to be making all the running on the GOP side at the moment
    Yes, Cruz makes Trump look modest and mild, he is fiercely bright, his Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said, "Cruz was off-the-charts brilliant" however he is a Democrats wet dream as GOP nominee. If Trump does become nominee and Hillary beats him though I can see Cruz being the nominee in 2020 before the GOP finally move back to the centre
    If Hillary wins in 2016 she will lose in 2020.
    Men already hate her and an economic recession will be due.
    No, she is the Democrats Nixon, if she wins in 2016 the GOP will pick Cruz, their McGovern, in 2020 and
    If Hilla

    Hillary, if she wins in 2016, will be the american Julia Gillard.
    There was no
    The record in america is 10 years, from 1990-2000, not 16.
    Gillard was hated by more men than loved by women, Hillary will fall the same way, plus a recession will prove that thought she maybe a woman she is still incompetent in her job.

    Her resume is not all confidence inspiring, being the wife of Bill is the best think she ever did, that gave her a senate seat in N.Y. and the state department under Obama, which she has a terrible record in both.
    Hillary is just there because she married Bill, not because she has merits or capabilities, that's why I have low confidence in her.
    There was no recession of any real significance in 2000. There are more women than men in America and Hillary is far more competent and ruthless than Gillard. She is not brilliant, but then again against Trump and Cruz she does not have to be. She is not a natural politician, neither was Nixon, but she is ruthless enough to get it on the second attempt as he did
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,236

    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    Moses_ said:

    john_zims said:

    @Moses

    '1200 jobs to go at steel makers TATA in Scunthorpe. Governments getting blamed by Labour the TUC and the workers coming out of the gates. '

    According to Sky interview UK energy prices 5x higher than competition plus Chinese dumping at below cost.

    Can't do anthing about the dumping except demand China stop. Good luck with that.

    Could they subsidise the energy cost thus avoiding "directly" propping up the plant. It probably still wouldn't be allowed nor would it achieve much until we insist UK uses its own steel first. That of course is also not allowed. Jeez what a mess.
    We shouldn't try to prop it up. We should thank the Chinese for so generously subsidising our steel use, improving British consumer welfare at the expense of Chinese living standards, and retrain the steel workers here to do something more sustainable.
    What's your suggestion?
    I understand there are shortages in some of the skilled and semi-skilled construction jobs, such as plasterers, pipe fitters etc. Some of the more talented workers could even be pushed into design fields which are exploding in the UK.
    I am sure HMG have a plan. After all the collapse of the UK steel industry which seems to be under way is a direct result of policies being pursued by Cameron and Co and they would have thought out the likely consequences and planned for them. Wouldn't they?

    Thirty years ago the Conservatives were in charge when the coalmining industry packed up and then they had no plan as to how to deal with the human tragedy that was bound to ensue. Surely the Conservative Party would not make the same mistake twice.
    The plan is as follows:
    * If the people affected are voters for your party, then apply subsidies, tax benefits, grants, etc.
    * If the people affected are voters for the other party, then blame them and lecture them.

    This is true regardless of which party is in power, as the miners and foxhunters can attest.
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