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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lynton Crosby’s magic fails to save the Tories in Canada

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lynton Crosby’s magic fails to save the Tories in Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/includes/federalelection/dashboard/index.html

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Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2015
    First. And Tories OUT !

    Absolute majority.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    edited October 2015
    Justin Trudeau is the same age as Blair when he became PM, 43.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586
    surbiton said:

    First. And Tories OUT !

    Absolute majority.

    Can't win them all.. harumph!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,813
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    First. And Tories OUT !

    Absolute majority.

    Can't win them all.. harumph!
    Of course you can - looks like no-one in Canada votes Labor.

    :-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    edited October 2015
    As usual the Conservatives did slightly better than the polls were indicating in terms of popular vote. Of the 114 polls conducted during the campaign about 80% of them had the Tories lower than 32%.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    Justin Trudeau is the same age as Blair when he became PM, 43.

    You had to spoil it !
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,813
    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/cameron-should-listen-to-syrian-bishops-not-the-anglican-ones/

    Apropos Syrian migrants - a Bishop who knows what he is talking about.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    edited October 2015
    Guess what percentage of the electorate voted Liberal in Canada? Yep, 24%. It always seems to end up on that percentage for the winning party under FPTP.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
    Thank you. I am trying to reduce my consumption of patisseries but when in Rome and all that....

    A surprising number of beggars here.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,813
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
    Thank you. I am trying to reduce my consumption of patisseries but when in Rome and all that....

    A surprising number of beggars here.

    That's fairly new, previously you wouldn;t have seen any, I'm putting it down to E European gangs.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133
    http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/dont-mention-the-mosque/

    An interesting Australian perspective.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,133

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
    Thank you. I am trying to reduce my consumption of patisseries but when in Rome and all that....

    A surprising number of beggars here.

    That's fairly new, previously you wouldn;t have seen any, I'm putting it down to E European gangs.

    Munich obviously very wealthy, which is why it surprised me. Mind you, the beggars had rather charming dogs with them.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    These are truly awful results for Harper, who gambled everything on a long election campaign hoping it would expose Trudeau and Mulcair. But they are now basically back to where they were in 2004, with a Liberal majority to boot.

    The Tories are about 25-30 seats below where I expected them to be, as are the NDP. Very surprised at the total wipeout in the Maritimes, particularly in New Brunswick where I have relatives.

    Kudos to the Liberals: making a gain of 148 seats to a majority from the brink of extinction is a fantastic performance.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584
    Could this make Canada more likely to help out with Syrian Refugees? It is, after all, a big ******* country!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586

    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
    Gonna pop on coverage of our much better election to cheer myself up. I can hear the bongs now.... :D
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,584
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    They're not a short boat ride from the EU...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    This sort of attitude is exactly why Labour lost!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    Perhaps Trudeau is not crap?
  • surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    Perhaps it was the ground game that won it?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    That's the electorate for you, what do they know
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586

    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    Perhaps it was the ground game that won it?
    IOS' ears were burning momentarily.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Just a thought, more than 15m votes what % turnout is that?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    edited October 2015

    Cyclefree

    "http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/cameron-should-listen-to-syrian-bishops-not-the-anglican-ones/

    Apropos Syrian migrants, a Bishop who knows what he is talking about. "

    Munich. One of my favourite German towns. Have fun.

    Rather a misleading headline in the Spectator article as the one in your post.

    The Bishop is just stating the obvious that he would prefer not to lose his entire congregation to Europe but his main points are that Assad should be supported and he supports Russia's action.

    He also says that Cameron's policy is the wrong one and Assad should be supported because if he is defeated there will be armageddon. All pretty obvious really from a christian point of view.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    A higher % of Canadians voted Conservative in 2011 than in the UK this year.
  • surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    Isn't it amazing what a credible opposition can achieve? The Canadian Tories faced one. It's not a concern for the English version. That's the difference.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,586

    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    A higher % of Canadians voted Conservative in 2011 than in the UK this year.
    They were clearly less sensible in 2011 ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Surbiton

    "Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?"

    Because they don't have our moronic press?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
    Gonna pop on coverage of our much better election to cheer myself up. I can hear the bongs now.... :D
    I couldn't stand the last Trudeau. I'm not sure Junior will be much different.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    Quita bounce-back for Bloc Québécois, too. Gained at least 7 sdeats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    Roger said:

    Surbiton

    "Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?"

    Because they don't have our moronic press?

    The Conservatives led on newspaper endorsements:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
    Thanks Casino. This has to be one of the biggest political turnarounds in modern political history when you consider the Liberals slumped to third in 2011, they have not only re replaced the NDP as the main opposition to the Tories in a single term but won a majority government too. Justin Trudeau is charismatic, young, fresh, positive and optimistic. Sadly for UK Labour everything Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn are not!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392

    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    Isn't it amazing what a credible opposition can achieve? The Canadian Tories faced one. It's not a concern for the English version. That's the difference.

    As usual, the most sensible Lefty on PB.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 2,662
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
    Thank you. I am trying to reduce my consumption of patisseries but when in Rome and all that....

    A surprising number of beggars here.

    That's fairly new, previously you wouldn;t have seen any, I'm putting it down to E European gangs.

    Munich obviously very wealthy, which is why it surprised me. Mind you, the beggars had rather charming dogs with them.

    Surely, like burglars, beggars hang out in affluent areas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    What else is there to do in Canada for fun other than cut down a tree, shoot a moose and wildly zig-zag your vote?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    edited October 2015
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
    Thanks Casino. This has to be one of the biggest political turnarounds in modern political history when you consider the Liberals slumped to third in 2011, they have not only re replaced the NDP as the main opposition to the Tories in a single term but won a majority government too. Justin Trudeau is charismatic, young, fresh, positive and optimistic. Sadly for UK Labour everything Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn are not!
    He may be charismatic, young, fresh, positive and optimistic but he still represents the triumph of another North American political dynasty in addition to Bush and Clinton.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135

    Quita bounce-back for Bloc Québécois, too. Gained at least 7 sdeats.

    Their vote share dropped to its lowest ever percentage. They picked up seats because the NDP vote slumped even further.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,135
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?

    I assume the same Canadians weren't sensible when they put Harper in the PM's office for nearly a decade.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799


    Kudos to the Liberals: making a gain of 148 seats to a majority from the brink of extinction is a fantastic performance.

    For "the Liberals", read our very own "Labour".

    In 2035....



  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    What else is there to do in Canada for fun other than cut down a tree, shoot a moose and wildly zig-zag your vote?
    Ha. It is interesting though: issues like Europe, immigration, and population overcrowding simply aren't issues there.

    Defence in the arctic, federal tax, the French and shooting wildlife are so that's what dominates their centre-right politics.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,975
    On topic, a timely reminder that a good campaign strategist can make a difference, and in a close election can be one of the things that makes *the* difference. However, some elections, given the opposition, the electorate and the circumstances just cannot be won no matter how good your staff are.

    Put another way, blaming the dark arts of Lynton Crosby (or, from the other side going back a bit, Peter Mandelson and Alistair Campbell), is missing the point: they are successful because they tap into, enhance and exploit existing beliefs that the electorate already holds - unless there isn't enough to tap into or the other side holds a more powerful message.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    What else is there to do in Canada for fun other than cut down a tree, shoot a moose and wildly zig-zag your vote?
    Ha. It is interesting though: issues like Europe, immigration, and population overcrowding simply aren't issues there. Gay marriage was several years ago, but Harper neatly managed to sidestep it.

    Defence in the arctic, federal tax, the French and shooting wildlife are so that's what dominates their centre-right politics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
    Thanks Casino. This has to be one of the biggest political turnarounds in modern political history when you consider the Liberals slumped to third in 2011, they have not only re replaced the NDP as the main opposition to the Tories in a single term but won a majority government too. Justin Trudeau is charismatic, young, fresh, positive and optimistic. Sadly for UK Labour everything Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn are not!
    Well-deserved. Just a shame there was no overall majority market!

    Trudeau clearly has the x-factor. I do wonder how much the name might have helped him given the national popularity of Senior, and nostalgia for that.

    Still, it's worth remembering that Harper had been PM since Blair was still around as our PM, and that feels like a very long time ago. But it does feel like he threw a near miss away in the final 3 weeks.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    Perhaps we are now seeing what would have happened to the Tories if Maggie had not been replaced by John Major. Harper has presided over strong growth for Canada, especially since they are a major oil producer and have been badly hit by that but he has been extraordinarily divisive, being hated not just by his enemies but even by many of what should be his friends.

    The media and comments indicate above all a sense of relief that he is gone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,267
    AndyJS said:

    Quita bounce-back for Bloc Québécois, too. Gained at least 7 sdeats.

    Their vote share dropped to its lowest ever percentage. They picked up seats because the NDP vote slumped even further.
    So it could be described as anti-Conservative voting. Tarher like our 1997?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,948


    Kudos to the Liberals: making a gain of 148 seats to a majority from the brink of extinction is a fantastic performance.

    For "the Liberals", read our very own "Labour".

    In 2035....



    Euan Blair will be 52 by then ...
  • Roger said:

    Surbiton

    "Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?"

    Because they don't have our moronic press?

    Nice to see the pbreds blaming the electorate (tm kinnockism) and meedjah for their failings..... plus ca change.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,367
    The riding of Northwest Territories has almost 500,000 square miles, 5 times the size of the UK. It has a population of about 45K.

    Quite a chunk of the northern part has not even been really explored yet. I think it would be fair to say that it has rather different issues from the UK.
  • Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    Yep, absolutely spot on. A credible oppositions with an electable leader might be in a position to make some serious capital out of the various and mounting problems facing the Tories currently, but with Corbyn Labour across the floor there is absolutely nothing to worry about. They have a permanent get Out of Jail Free card. There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 44,329
    Congratulations Justin Trudeau !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    On SINDY I suspect Sturgeon may live to see it - as an elderly lady - but Salmond (who I wish a long life too) may not. The Scots are having their cake & eating it - voting in a government that robustly defends Scotland's corner without actually facing the consequences of independence.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974

    Roger said:

    Surbiton

    "Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?"

    Because they don't have our moronic press?

    Nice to see the pbreds blaming the electorate (tm kinnockism) and meedjah for their failings..... plus ca change.
    Strangely, the only UK party that has a good reason to complain about the electorate and media are the Lib Dems. They got mercilessly hammered for the tuition fees u-turn, when Labour themselves had made several u-turns in that area.

    Although it appears that many Lib Dem voters in 2010 and 2015 were not 'true' Lib Dems, but disillusioned Labour voters.

    Given that, it'll be interesting to see what Farron can do. There might be many left-leaning voters utterly disillusioned with Corbyn's party, and the media might like a sane party to focus on as Labour lurch to insanity.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,466
    Interesting comment from the Toronto Globe and Mail that should cheer Labour:

    "The party platform also made a mark with voters. Liberals said the key moment of the campaign came as they announced, in late August, that they would run three deficits of up to $10-billion a year to pay for infrastructure spending. The move allowed the party to present a more ambitious agenda, but also created a clear contrast with the NDP and the Conservative Party that both vowed to balance the books. That promise hit the NDP “like a train,” said a senior Liberal organizer."

    The culture wars stuff seems to have boomeranged for the Tories (though they hurt the NDP in Quebec):

    '"Distractions,” as Conservatives called them, included revelations at the Duffy fraud trial, charges the government was failing Syrian refugees and a backlash outside Quebec to Mr. Harper’s comments that he would consider banning the niqab among federal public servants.

    A promise to establish a tip line for reports of “barbaric cultural practices” was also widely condemned as inflammatory.'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    edited October 2015
    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Miss Cyclefree, do try beef sausage with garlic and red pepper (I think that was one I had, not from Germany, but I haven't been able to find it since). Delicious.

    And do not mock the sausage. Few foods have such easy comedy potential.

    And don't neglect the meat balls either.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Alanbrooke

    "Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good."

    ..... Erdbeerkuchen mit Sahne with the lovely Lola just down the road in Bad Tolz.....

    (A bit like Ludlow really but without the 5 Conservative Clubs)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    DavidL said:

    Perhaps we are now seeing what would have happened to the Tories if Maggie had not been replaced by John Major. Harper has presided over strong growth for Canada, especially since they are a major oil producer and have been badly hit by that but he has been extraordinarily divisive, being hated not just by his enemies but even by many of what should be his friends.

    The media and comments indicate above all a sense of relief that he is gone.

    True though Trudeau is more Blair than Kinnock. Eventually leaders run out if steam, it also happened to John Howard in 2007
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,948
    'The only way to eat well is to have breakfast three times a day' is truer of Germany than it is of Britain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    Interesting comment from the Toronto Globe and Mail that should cheer Labour:

    "The party platform also made a mark with voters. Liberals said the key moment of the campaign came as they announced, in late August, that they would run three deficits of up to $10-billion a year to pay for infrastructure spending. The move allowed the party to present a more ambitious agenda, but also created a clear contrast with the NDP and the Conservative Party that both vowed to balance the books. That promise hit the NDP “like a train,” said a senior Liberal organizer."

    The culture wars stuff seems to have boomeranged for the Tories (though they hurt the NDP in Quebec):

    '"Distractions,” as Conservatives called them, included revelations at the Duffy fraud trial, charges the government was failing Syrian refugees and a backlash outside Quebec to Mr. Harper’s comments that he would consider banning the niqab among federal public servants.

    A promise to establish a tip line for reports of “barbaric cultural practices” was also widely condemned as inflammatory.'

    Yes but the Liberals had JFK not Worzel Gummidge delivering the message unlike UK Labour. Trudeau is generally pretty centrist and pro Israel unlike Corbyn
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:
    “I have watched for some time the declining quality of the Labour party’s leadership, but had not expected the calamitous decline achieved in 2015. The Labour party is no longer a credible party of government-in-waiting. The approach of those around you and your own approach and policies is highly likely to to worsen the decline and in the Labour party’s credibility.

    “I fear for the future of the Labour party if your supporting activists secure ever control of the party’s apparatus and process, and the role of the parliamentary Labour party diminishes further in the selection of a leader and the formulation of policies likely to win an election.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,988
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
    Thank you. I am trying to reduce my consumption of patisseries but when in Rome and all that....

    A surprising number of beggars here.

    That's fairly new, previously you wouldn;t have seen any, I'm putting it down to E European gangs.

    Munich obviously very wealthy, which is why it surprised me. Mind you, the beggars had rather charming dogs with them.

    Surprised as well , spent a fair bit of time there , a while ago now mind you , but never saw a beggar in all that time. Paris at same time had loads of them.
    Saying that we did not have any in Scotland then but again have plenty nowadays.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799

    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:

    “I have watched for some time the declining quality of the Labour party’s leadership, but had not expected the calamitous decline achieved in 2015. The Labour party is no longer a credible party of government-in-waiting. The approach of those around you and your own approach and policies is highly likely to to worsen the decline and in the Labour party’s credibility.

    “I fear for the future of the Labour party if your supporting activists secure ever control of the party’s apparatus and process, and the role of the parliamentary Labour party diminishes further in the selection of a leader and the formulation of policies likely to win an election.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!

    Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....
  • Interesting comment from the Toronto Globe and Mail that should cheer Labour:

    "The party platform also made a mark with voters. Liberals said the key moment of the campaign came as they announced, in late August, that they would run three deficits of up to $10-billion a year to pay for infrastructure spending. The move allowed the party to present a more ambitious agenda, but also created a clear contrast with the NDP and the Conservative Party that both vowed to balance the books. That promise hit the NDP “like a train,” said a senior Liberal organizer."

    The culture wars stuff seems to have boomeranged for the Tories (though they hurt the NDP in Quebec):

    '"Distractions,” as Conservatives called them, included revelations at the Duffy fraud trial, charges the government was failing Syrian refugees and a backlash outside Quebec to Mr. Harper’s comments that he would consider banning the niqab among federal public servants.

    A promise to establish a tip line for reports of “barbaric cultural practices” was also widely condemned as inflammatory.'

    The Liberals are a credible party of government and have a leader that voters can connect with. Once Labour has those two things it can start on assembling a package of policies that voters might take seriously.

    I know you don't like hearing it Nick, and I hate saying it, but the decisions that you and other members have taken over recent months have rendered Labour unelectable and, therefore, irrelevant. Think NDP, not Liberal.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Munich is lovely - try to visit the Charles Hotel if you can, although a coffee will cost more than your bank charges you

    (I thought you understood the risks of incentivising people to hide where they are making money? If banks can't charge for current accounts they will try to make money in all sorts of sneaky ways*. And that's bound to lead to trouble)

    * My personal favourite is minimum account balances (interest free) because it sounds so inocuous
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,988

    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    On SINDY I suspect Sturgeon may live to see it - as an elderly lady - but Salmond (who I wish a long life too) may not. The Scots are having their cake & eating it - voting in a government that robustly defends Scotland's corner without actually facing the consequences of independence.....
    I would not bet on that, many people do not care about having someone else's cake, they want their own whether better or worse. Not everybody is in it for money. Only the old codgers that make a difference at present and they will be long gone before Sturgeon is ancient.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
    Thank you. I am trying to reduce my consumption of patisseries but when in Rome and all that....

    A surprising number of beggars here.

    That's fairly new, previously you wouldn;t have seen any, I'm putting it down to E European gangs.

    Munich obviously very wealthy, which is why it surprised me. Mind you, the beggars had rather charming dogs with them.

    Surprised as well , spent a fair bit of time there , a while ago now mind you , but never saw a beggar in all that time. Paris at same time had loads of them.
    Saying that we did not have any in Scotland then but again have plenty nowadays.
    Wondered what had become of all those Labour ex-MPs....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    CR

    "The Conservatives led on newspaper endorsements:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015"

    It didn't exactly give numbers but it's extraordinary the information which finds it's way onto the internet (and don't they have a huge number of papers in Canada?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    Yep, absolutely spot on. A credible oppositions with an electable leader might be in a position to make some serious capital out of the various and mounting problems facing the Tories currently, but with Corbyn Labour across the floor there is absolutely nothing to worry about. They have a permanent get Out of Jail Free card. There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    Canada of course has had two independence referendums in Quebec already, both defeated. It also looks like the Liberals have won most seats in Quebec again for the first time in a general election for 35 years, which means Scottish Labour may have to wait until 2050 for fortunes to be restored
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,988

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Greetings from a foggy and cold Munich.

    My first visit here and very attractive it is, though it has to be said that German cuisine is not one of the world's greatest. I mean, how many varieties of f***ing sausage does one need?!

    Have the Chinese arrived and taken us over yet?

    Oh and if my bank tries to charge me for the privilege of holding my money it can push right off!!

    Try a Konditorei for Kaffee und Kuchen , German patisseries are ususally pretty good.
    Thank you. I am trying to reduce my consumption of patisseries but when in Rome and all that....

    A surprising number of beggars here.

    That's fairly new, previously you wouldn;t have seen any, I'm putting it down to E European gangs.

    Munich obviously very wealthy, which is why it surprised me. Mind you, the beggars had rather charming dogs with them.

    Surprised as well , spent a fair bit of time there , a while ago now mind you , but never saw a beggar in all that time. Paris at same time had loads of them.
    Saying that we did not have any in Scotland then but again have plenty nowadays.
    Wondered what had become of all those Labour ex-MPs....
    MM, unfortunately most of them are millionaires( or very close ) so they will be living the high life. Their only skill was in benefitting themselves.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,637
    Has there ever been a first world leader called Justin before? The name lacks heft in my opinion
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037

    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:

    “I have watched for some time the declining quality of the Labour party’s leadership, but had not expected the calamitous decline achieved in 2015. The Labour party is no longer a credible party of government-in-waiting. The approach of those around you and your own approach and policies is highly likely to to worsen the decline and in the Labour party’s credibility.

    “I fear for the future of the Labour party if your supporting activists secure ever control of the party’s apparatus and process, and the role of the parliamentary Labour party diminishes further in the selection of a leader and the formulation of policies likely to win an election.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!
    Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....

    I wonder what it is about Corbyn and a centre-left Labour that NHS Privatisation zealot and arch-Blairite Lord Warner doesnt like?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,453
    JWisemann said:

    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:

    “I have watched for some time the declining quality of the Labour party’s leadership, but had not expected the calamitous decline achieved in 2015. The Labour party is no longer a credible party of government-in-waiting. The approach of those around you and your own approach and policies is highly likely to to worsen the decline and in the Labour party’s credibility.

    “I fear for the future of the Labour party if your supporting activists secure ever control of the party’s apparatus and process, and the role of the parliamentary Labour party diminishes further in the selection of a leader and the formulation of policies likely to win an election.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!
    Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....
    I wonder what it is about Corbyn and a centre-left Labour that NHS Privatisation zealot and arch-Blairite Lord Warner doesnt like?


    I guess the Dear Leader doesn't like anyone who thinks for themselves.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    malcolmg said:

    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    On SINDY I suspect Sturgeon may live to see it - as an elderly lady - but Salmond (who I wish a long life too) may not. The Scots are having their cake & eating it - voting in a government that robustly defends Scotland's corner without actually facing the consequences of independence.....
    I would not bet on that, many people do not care about having someone else's cake, they want their own whether better or worse. Not everybody is in it for money. Only the old codgers that make a difference at present and they will be long gone before Sturgeon is ancient.
    Then why hasn't the surge in SNP support been matched by a surge of similar magnitude for independence.....?

    Sounds like the plan is to 'wait until the old folks are all dead' then.....
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    edited October 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting comment from the Toronto Globe and Mail that should cheer Labour:

    "The party platform also made a mark with voters. Liberals said the key moment of the campaign came as they announced, in late August, that they would run three deficits of up to $10-billion a year to pay for infrastructure spending. The move allowed the party to present a more ambitious agenda, but also created a clear contrast with the NDP and the Conservative Party that both vowed to balance the books. That promise hit the NDP “like a train,” said a senior Liberal organizer."

    The culture wars stuff seems to have boomeranged for the Tories (though they hurt the NDP in Quebec):

    '"Distractions,” as Conservatives called them, included revelations at the Duffy fraud trial, charges the government was failing Syrian refugees and a backlash outside Quebec to Mr. Harper’s comments that he would consider banning the niqab among federal public servants.

    A promise to establish a tip line for reports of “barbaric cultural practices” was also widely condemned as inflammatory.'

    Yes but the Liberals had JFK not Worzel Gummidge delivering the message unlike UK Labour. Trudeau is generally pretty centrist and pro Israel unlike Corbyn
    What has being pro Israel got to do with anything?
    I'll point out again that being 'pro-Israel' (as if being explicitly 'pro' or 'anti' any country is not moronic in itself) is not a centrist position, certainly in this country, in which the majority have an unfavourable view of the country (unsurprisingly).

    Also, of course, Corbyn is merely spearheading a change in the Labour Party, and is unlikely to lead them into the next election.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    MM

    " Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter....."

    That made me laugh!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    JWisemann said:

    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:

    “I have watched for some time the declining quality of the Labour party’s leadership, but had not expected the calamitous decline achieved in 2015. The Labour party is no longer a credible party of government-in-waiting. The approach of those around you and your own approach and policies is highly likely to to worsen the decline and in the Labour party’s credibility.

    “I fear for the future of the Labour party if your supporting activists secure ever control of the party’s apparatus and process, and the role of the parliamentary Labour party diminishes further in the selection of a leader and the formulation of policies likely to win an election.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!
    Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....
    I wonder what it is about Corbyn and a centre-left Labour that NHS Privatisation zealot and arch-Blairite Lord Warner doesnt like?

    This sort of mindless attack is hilarious. Show me where you were criticising him for his views when he was inside the tent?

    The 'arch-Blairite' tag is perhaps the most funny. It seems that having similar views to the only electable Labour leader for forty years is now a negative in Labour.

    Labour are going to lose, and lose badly. But that'll be fine, because the two people left in it will be ideologically pure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
    Thanks Casino. This has to be one of the biggest political turnarounds in modern political history when you consider the Liberals slumped to third in 2011, they have not only re replaced the NDP as the main opposition to the Tories in a single term but won a majority government too. Justin Trudeau is charismatic, young, fresh, positive and optimistic. Sadly for UK Labour everything Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn are not!
    Well-deserved. Just a shame there was no overall majority market!

    Trudeau clearly has the x-factor. I do wonder how much the name might have helped him given the national popularity of Senior, and nostalgia for that.

    Still, it's worth remembering that Harper had been PM since Blair was still around as our PM, and that feels like a very long time ago. But it does feel like he threw a near miss away in the final 3 weeks.
    Maybe but as you suggest the tide was against Harper
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Wow. What a hammering!

    Canada does seem to be different. Huge, wild swings in the polls can - and do - happen late in their election campaigns, and Canadians are happy to vote accordingly.

    Surprised no one has mentioned that this may have been a "suboptimal" (to paraphrase slightly) night for the conservatives... :D
    I called it totally wrong.

    Kudos to HYFUD who got this bang-on.
    Thanks Casino. This has to be one of the biggest political turnarounds in modern political history when you consider the Liberals slumped to third in 2011, they have not only re replaced the NDP as the main opposition to the Tories in a single term but won a majority government too. Justin Trudeau is charismatic, young, fresh, positive and optimistic. Sadly for UK Labour everything Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn are not!
    He may be charismatic, young, fresh, positive and optimistic but he still represents the triumph of another North American political dynasty in addition to Bush and Clinton.
    Good news for Texas Land Commissioner George P Bush and Congressman Joseph P Kennedy 111 both in their thirties
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    edited October 2015
    Malc

    "MM, unfortunately most of them are millionaires( or very close ) so they will be living the high life. Their only skill was in benefitting themselves."

    An idiotic comment on every level. Have a black coffee and wake yourself up or risk sounding ridiculous
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617
    Roger said:


    An idiotic comment on every level. Have a black coffee and wake yourself up or risk sounding ridiculous

    Coming from you, of all people.....that's harsh......
  • Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    On SINDY I suspect Sturgeon may live to see it - as an elderly lady - but Salmond (who I wish a long life too) may not. The Scots are having their cake & eating it - voting in a government that robustly defends Scotland's corner without actually facing the consequences of independence.....

    I see it from the opposite perspective. Scotland will either become independent within the next decade (ie, within Salmond's lifetime) or the issue will have been put to bed for a very long time. The SNP's opportunity will come in the early 2020s after the Tories win their majority at the next GE. If they don't secure a Yes at that point they will be a busted flush.

  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    edited October 2015

    JWisemann said:

    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:

    “I have watched for some time the declining quality of the Labour party’s leadership, but had not expected the calamitous decline achieved in 2015. The Labour party is no longer a credible party of government-in-waiting. The approach of those around you and your own approach and policies is highly likely to to worsen the decline and in the Labour party’s credibility.

    “I fear for the future of the Labour party if your supporting activists secure ever control of the party’s apparatus and process, and the role of the parliamentary Labour party diminishes further in the selection of a leader and the formulation of policies likely to win an election.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!
    Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....
    I wonder what it is about Corbyn and a centre-left Labour that NHS Privatisation zealot and arch-Blairite Lord Warner doesnt like?
    This sort of mindless attack is hilarious. Show me where you were criticising him for his views when he was inside the tent?

    The 'arch-Blairite' tag is perhaps the most funny. It seems that having similar views to the only electable Labour leader for forty years is now a negative in Labour.

    Labour are going to lose, and lose badly. But that'll be fine, because the two people left in it will be ideologically pure.

    I think many of the people who voted Corbyn were quite OK with First Term Blair (the one where he won loads of votes) and are the ones defending it's legacy. It's the Blairites who seem determined to disown that period.

    Do you really think if the roles were reversed and a Tory who'd advocated nationalisation of the UK car industry and the recreation of British Leyland decided to leave the party, we wouldnt (quite rightly) get similar resounding howls of 'meh.'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640

    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    On SINDY I suspect Sturgeon may live to see it - as an elderly lady - but Salmond (who I wish a long life too) may not. The Scots are having their cake & eating it - voting in a government that robustly defends Scotland's corner without actually facing the consequences of independence.....

    I see it from the opposite perspective. Scotland will either become independent within the next decade (ie, within Salmond's lifetime) or the issue will have been put to bed for a very long time. The SNP's opportunity will come in the early 2020s after the Tories win their majority at the next GE. If they don't secure a Yes at that point they will be a busted flush.

    Quebec's second vote came 15 years after the first
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 41,640
    Trudeau pledges 'real change. '

    Harper to stand down as Tory leader post defeat while Mulcair to stay on

    BQ leader Gilles Duceppe has lost his seat
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,208
    Just heard Warner being interviewed. Extremely unimpressive. A Minister in Blair's government apparently.
  • "Put another way, blaming the dark arts of Lynton Crosby (or, from the other side going back a bit, Peter Mandelson and Alistair Campbell), is missing the point: they are successful because they tap into, enhance and exploit existing beliefs that the electorate already holds - unless there isn't enough to tap into or the other side holds a more powerful message."

    He can only ever act as a force multiplier
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,974
    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:

    “I have watched for some time the declining quality of the Labour party’s leadership, but had not expected the calamitous decline achieved in 2015. The Labour party is no longer a credible party of government-in-waiting. The approach of those around you and your own approach and policies is highly likely to to worsen the decline and in the Labour party’s credibility.

    “I fear for the future of the Labour party if your supporting activists secure ever control of the party’s apparatus and process, and the role of the parliamentary Labour party diminishes further in the selection of a leader and the formulation of policies likely to win an election.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!
    Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....
    I wonder what it is about Corbyn and a centre-left Labour that NHS Privatisation zealot and arch-Blairite Lord Warner doesnt like?
    This sort of mindless attack is hilarious. Show me where you were criticising him for his views when he was inside the tent?

    The 'arch-Blairite' tag is perhaps the most funny. It seems that having similar views to the only electable Labour leader for forty years is now a negative in Labour.

    Labour are going to lose, and lose badly. But that'll be fine, because the two people left in it will be ideologically pure.
    I think many of the people who voted Corbyn were quite OK with First Term Blair (the one where he won loads of votes) and are the ones defending it's legacy. It's the Blairites who seem determined to disown that period.

    Do you really think if the roles were reversed and a Tory who'd advocated nationalisation of the UK car industry and the recreation of British Leyland decided to leave the party, we wouldnt (quite rightly) get similar resounding howls of 'meh.'


    I'm not sure many Tories are likely to advocate those policies. Can you name a famous Conservative who has advocated them?

    But in comparison, let's try to think back to when Carswell moved over to UKIP. Perhaps I'm misremembering, but most Conservatives seemed to regret his move, but not attack him in quite the same way.

    Reckless got attacked much more, but that was mostly as a result of the way he defected, rather than his views.

    The Labour party is the real nasty party.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2015

    Interesting comment from the Toronto Globe and Mail that should cheer Labour:

    "The party platform also made a mark with voters. Liberals said the key moment of the campaign came as they announced, in late August, that they would run three deficits of up to $10-billion a year to pay for infrastructure spending.

    Canadians are open to some modest borrowing (£5bn pa) because the principles of sound finance are firmly established after more than a decade of continuous surplus until 2008, and only one deficit over 3% in twenty years.

    Debt to GDP came down from >100% in the late 1990s to <70% in 2008 thanks to a perpetual surplus pre-2008.

    This country is probably five-ten years away from the same point.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,392
    HYUFD said:

    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    Yep, absolutely spot on. A credible oppositions with an electable leader might be in a position to make some serious capital out of the various and mounting problems facing the Tories currently, but with Corbyn Labour across the floor there is absolutely nothing to worry about. They have a permanent get Out of Jail Free card. There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    Canada of course has had two independence referendums in Quebec already, both defeated. It also looks like the Liberals have won most seats in Quebec again for the first time in a general election for 35 years, which means Scottish Labour may have to wait until 2050 for fortunes to be restored
    Ontario is the meat but to win outright in Canada you really have to be competitive in all provinces.

    Overall majorities have only really been a serious prospect since the Bloc collapsed.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    edited October 2015

    Roger said:

    Surbiton

    "Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?"

    Because they don't have our moronic press?

    Nice to see the pbreds blaming the electorate (tm kinnockism) and meedjah for their failings..... plus ca change.
    Strangely, the only UK party that has a good reason to complain about the electorate and media are the Lib Dems. They got mercilessly hammered for the tuition fees u-turn, when Labour themselves had made several u-turns in that area.

    Although it appears that many Lib Dem voters in 2010 and 2015 were not 'true' Lib Dems, but disillusioned Labour voters.

    Given that, it'll be interesting to see what Farron can do. There might be many left-leaning voters utterly disillusioned with Corbyn's party, and the media might like a sane party to focus on as Labour lurch to insanity.
    Yes, Labour have no reason to complain about a corporate media owned by foreigners and tax dodgers that overwhelmingly pumps out propaganda ranged against them, out of all proportion to the relative popularity of the parties.
    If it didn't work, the corporate interests in question wouldn't expend so much effort doing it.
    Also, study after study shows that where public opinion at large diverges from reality, it closely follows the misrepresentations of the press.
    Propaganda works, simple as. And in this country with have a particularly virulent form of it, built up symbiotically with the aid of the politicians that represent the same interests in Westminster. To moronically mis-spell media to suggest those using clear and obvious evidence to support their arguments are silly children just makes you look a bit facile, frankly.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I think the more hard headed and unsentimental Scots will still vote to stay in the Union...The SNP have so far failed to offer anything, apart from crying Freedom every five minutes, to attract them away.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,799
    JWisemann said:

    Roger said:

    Surbiton

    "Why are the Canadians so sensible and the British not ?"

    Because they don't have our moronic press?

    Nice to see the pbreds blaming the electorate (tm kinnockism) and meedjah for their failings..... plus ca change.
    Strangely, the only UK party that has a good reason to complain about the electorate and media are the Lib Dems. They got mercilessly hammered for the tuition fees u-turn, when Labour themselves had made several u-turns in that area.

    Although it appears that many Lib Dem voters in 2010 and 2015 were not 'true' Lib Dems, but disillusioned Labour voters.

    Given that, it'll be interesting to see what Farron can do. There might be many left-leaning voters utterly disillusioned with Corbyn's party, and the media might like a sane party to focus on as Labour lurch to insanity.
    Yes, Labour have no reason to complain about a corporate media owned by foreigners and tax dodgers that overwhelmingly pumps out propaganda ranged against them, out of all proportion to the relative popularity of the parties.
    If it didn't work, the corporate interests in question wouldn't expend so much effort doing it.
    Also, study after study shows that where public opinion at large diverges from reality, it closely follows the misrepresentations of the press.
    Propaganda works, simple as. And in this country with have a particularly virulent form of it, built up symbiotically with the aid of the politicians that represent the same interests in Westminster. To moronically mis-spell media to suggest those using clear and obvious evidence to support their arguments are silly children just makes you look a bit facile, frankly.
    You were strangely silent when these same corporate media owned by foreigners and tax dodgers resided the wrong side of Tony Blair's sphincter....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 28,617

    Does Canadian politics ever see significant spill-over from the US - Canadians look at US Republicans and react?

    On our side of the pond, another great piece from Janan Ganesh (£):

    Politics is full of truisms that are not actually true. A week is not a long time in politics; much more stays the same than changes. People do not vote for hope and vision, but for the lesser evil. And nobody really minds a divided party. Division, managed properly, can convey vitality while draining opponents of a reason to exist. There is no solace for Labour in the Tories’ coming strife.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e14b53c-7416-11e5-bdb1-e6e4767162cc.html#ixzz3p5Sq9AsZ

    There are only two major issues in British politics right now: who will lead the Tories to victory in 2020 and in which year will Scotland become independent.
    On SINDY I suspect Sturgeon may live to see it - as an elderly lady - but Salmond (who I wish a long life too) may not. The Scots are having their cake & eating it - voting in a government that robustly defends Scotland's corner without actually facing the consequences of independence.....

    . The SNP's opportunity will come in the early 2020s after the Tories win their majority at the next GE. If they don't secure a Yes at that point they will be a busted flush.
    Unfortunately there are at least two "triggers" between now and 2020 - Trident and EU ref - how Nicola avoids these will be entertaining.....
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    Lord Warner's letter to Corbyn is probably worth a read:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/19/labour-no-longer-credible-party-lord-warner-resigns-whip

    But don't worry, Nick will take hope in what's happened in Canada.

    Tick tock! They've given up!

    Labour can celebrate that the sinking ship just got one rat lighter.....
    I wonder what it is about Corbyn and a centre-left Labour that NHS Privatisation zealot and arch-Blairite Lord Warner doesnt like?
    This sort of mindless attack is hilarious. Show me where you were criticising him for his views when he was inside the tent?

    The 'arch-Blairite' tag is perhaps the most funny. It seems that having similar views to the only electable Labour leader for forty years is now a negative in Labour.

    Labour are going to lose, and lose badly. But that'll be fine, because the two people left in it will be ideologically pure.
    I think many of the people who voted Corbyn were quite OK with First Term Blair (the one where he won loads of votes) and are the ones defending it's legacy. It's the Blairites who seem determined to disown that period.

    Do you really think if the roles were reversed and a Tory who'd advocated nationalisation of the UK car industry and the recreation of British Leyland decided to leave the party, we wouldnt (quite rightly) get similar resounding howls of 'meh.'
    I'm not sure many Tories are likely to advocate those policies. Can you name a famous Conservative who has advocated them?

    But in comparison, let's try to think back to when Carswell moved over to UKIP. Perhaps I'm misremembering, but most Conservatives seemed to regret his move, but not attack him in quite the same way.

    Reckless got attacked much more, but that was mostly as a result of the way he defected, rather than his views.

    The Labour party is the real nasty party.
    The difference is hardly anyone in the Labour Party at large (including supporters) likes the idea of NHS privatisation, unlike Warner. Carswell and Reckless hardly had such totemic differences of opinion with the Tory body politic, did they?
    And as you say, Reckless was hardly lauded.
    Stop virtue signalling, you sound ridiculous.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,189
    edited October 2015
    Mr. Charles, I think Justinian's predecessor (perhaps his uncle) had that name.

    Edited extra bit: I was right. Huzzah!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_I
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