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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the national polls show LAB’s plight getting worse party

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Some 54 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the May election want to leave the EU, as do 93 per cent of Ukip voters. But a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Green supporters want to remain."
  • Tom said:

    Where does Uncle Len sit on all this?

    Ask tom Watson.
    Where's Tom?
    Writing an 'I'm sorry if you were offended' letter to Lady Brittan.......
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @euanmccolm: my snp contacts unanimous in the view that mcgarry will be suspended by close of play tomorrow.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
    Presumably, it was those men in that room who oversaw the shooting down of MH17.

    Still, you've got to admire their smart boilersuits, right?
  • AnneJGP said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    Looks like a fairly heavily male-dominated environment!
    You're not the only lady-PBer :)
  • GeoffM said:

    My £3 is turning out to be a fantastic investment.

    #DUJCA
    #Tories4Corbyn
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
    Presumably, it was those men in that room who oversaw the shooting down of MH17.

    Still, you've got to admire their smart boilersuits, right?
    You don't have to approve of the artist to admire the art. The Russians have good kit, are getting better every year, and are not shy in using it nor of their ambitions. Study is therefore indicated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    AndyJS said:

    "Some 54 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the May election want to leave the EU, as do 93 per cent of Ukip voters. But a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Green supporters want to remain."
    Tories will be the swing voters in EUref
  • Moses_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    @johnmcdonnellMP: Yougov: 66% of party members think Jeremy is doing well & 86% of ppl who voted for him think he is doing well. We will take fight to Tories

    @DPJHodges: Labour leadership now tweeting poll results showing Labour members think they're doing a good job. Genuinely. It's come to this.

    Just wondering where he was this afternoon during the monstering of his leader when we saw the empty opposition benches. Interesting way to take the " fight to the Tories".
    Has anyone heard a Corbynista using a cricketing analogy? Should we ask Norman?
    Kick em in the box
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
    Is it built inside an extinct volcano? Those blue jumpsuits look familiar and I think I saw a furry white cat.

    But something like this, the all seeing eye, the constant observation by satellite, drone and spy plane is what we need and may have perhaps. Plus complete with the communications direct to our special forces on the ground.
    Equally of course we do have lots of clever things going on deep in the bowels of GCHQ
    I love Big Control Rooms With Big Screens, whether in fact or in fiction. But I genuinely don't know if UK command-and-control works like that: for all I know it might be three people in a room talking to a speakerphone.
    The MI5 building looks like a speakerphone... or is that MI6??
    I seem to remember in The Champions their boss was forever hanging round the phone and never getting a call from them.
    Maybe Putin is sat in a film set.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Some 54 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the May election want to leave the EU, as do 93 per cent of Ukip voters. But a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Green supporters want to remain."
    Tories will be the swing voters in EUref
    Indeed. I read thru the PDF of the SDSR and it mentioned the EURef "before the end of 2017", which is the first time I've seen it formulated that way (as opposed to "by 2017"). It's getting crowded: if it's not held in September next year and it creeps into 2017, then doesn't it run into the 2017 French Presidential and 2017 German Federal? Getting agreement from Hollande is one thing, but LePen? Oy, oy, oy...
  • Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
    Presumably, it was those men in that room who oversaw the shooting down of MH17.

    Still, you've got to admire their smart boilersuits, right?
    I wasn't aware that the investigation had concluded on that? As I understand it the Dutch report concluded that MH17 was shot down by a BUK missile only operated by the Ukrainians.

    https://consortiumnews.com/2015/10/13/mh-17-the-dog-still-not-barking/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    ...The MI5 building looks like a speakerphone... or is that MI6??...

    MI5 building: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_House
    MI6 building: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIS_Building
    GCHQ building: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Doughnut
  • http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    Looks like the ludicrously over praised Dan Jarvis can forget about being next Labour leader, wildly out of touch with both voters and the Labour Party members.
  • MikeL said:

    Everyone says Lab won't ditch Corbyn and of course it looks that way. But is it inevitable?

    He got just under 60%. That means only 1 in 6 people has to desert him to take him under 50%.

    Suppose:

    1) He faces a single, much more effective challenger than Burnham / Cooper

    2) The contest is on the back of disastrous May 2016 election results

    Is it really inconceivable that the momentum behind him might change?

    What it needs is an actual defeat in an actual election. The members think Corbyn is good, they hear from other members who think he's good, and they won't believe the media telling them he'a shit. The only thing that could persuade them is a thumping great election loss.

    The problem for Labour is that a local or Euro election may not be enough. They may need to conclusively lose a *general* election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    MikeL said:

    Everyone says Lab won't ditch Corbyn and of course it looks that way. But is it inevitable?

    He got just under 60%. That means only 1 in 6 people has to desert him to take him under 50%.

    Suppose:

    1) He faces a single, much more effective challenger than Burnham / Cooper

    2) The contest is on the back of disastrous May 2016 election results

    Is it really inconceivable that the momentum behind him might change?

    What it needs is an actual defeat in an actual election. The members think Corbyn is good, they hear from other members who think he's good, and they won't believe the media telling them he'a shit. The only thing that could persuade them is a thumping great election loss.

    The problem for Labour is that a local or Euro election may not be enough. They may need to conclusively lose a *general* election.
    Or a by-election to UKIP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Some 54 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the May election want to leave the EU, as do 93 per cent of Ukip voters. But a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Green supporters want to remain."
    Tories will be the swing voters in EUref
    Indeed. I read thru the PDF of the SDSR and it mentioned the EURef "before the end of 2017", which is the first time I've seen it formulated that way (as opposed to "by 2017"). It's getting crowded: if it's not held in September next year and it creeps into 2017, then doesn't it run into the 2017 French Presidential and 2017 German Federal? Getting agreement from Hollande is one thing, but LePen? Oy, oy, oy...
    If Le Pen wins the EU collapses anyway, night
  • LondonBob said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    Looks like the ludicrously over praised Dan Jarvis can forget about being next Labour leader, wildly out of touch with both voters and the Labour Party members.

    He's right slap bang in the middle between voters and Labour Party members. This is the ideal place to be if he wants to be Prime Minister, because that only happens if the two converge.
  • HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone says Lab won't ditch Corbyn and of course it looks that way. But is it inevitable?

    He got just under 60%. That means only 1 in 6 people has to desert him to take him under 50%.

    Suppose:

    1) He faces a single, much more effective challenger than Burnham / Cooper

    2) The contest is on the back of disastrous May 2016 election results

    Is it really inconceivable that the momentum behind him might change?

    What it needs is an actual defeat in an actual election. The members think Corbyn is good, they hear from other members who think he's good, and they won't believe the media telling them he'a shit. The only thing that could persuade them is a thumping great election loss.

    The problem for Labour is that a local or Euro election may not be enough. They may need to conclusively lose a *general* election.
    Or a by-election to UKIP
    That's their optimal outcome but I doubt they'll get off that lightly.
  • HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Some 54 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the May election want to leave the EU, as do 93 per cent of Ukip voters. But a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Green supporters want to remain."
    Tories will be the swing voters in EUref
    Indeed. I read thru the PDF of the SDSR and it mentioned the EURef "before the end of 2017", which is the first time I've seen it formulated that way (as opposed to "by 2017"). It's getting crowded: if it's not held in September next year and it creeps into 2017, then doesn't it run into the 2017 French Presidential and 2017 German Federal? Getting agreement from Hollande is one thing, but LePen? Oy, oy, oy...
    If Le Pen wins the EU collapses anyway, night
    Does it? Even if parliament passed a referendum bill the voters would probably vote to stay in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone says Lab won't ditch Corbyn and of course it looks that way. But is it inevitable?

    He got just under 60%. That means only 1 in 6 people has to desert him to take him under 50%.

    Suppose:

    1) He faces a single, much more effective challenger than Burnham / Cooper

    2) The contest is on the back of disastrous May 2016 election results

    Is it really inconceivable that the momentum behind him might change?

    What it needs is an actual defeat in an actual election. The members think Corbyn is good, they hear from other members who think he's good, and they won't believe the media telling them he'a shit. The only thing that could persuade them is a thumping great election loss.

    The problem for Labour is that a local or Euro election may not be enough. They may need to conclusively lose a *general* election.
    Or a by-election to UKIP
    That probably won't be enough. They'd also have to lose the London mayoralty and the Welsh Assembly.
  • Corbyn on defence is like Sooty and Sweep on physics
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    CNN and Fox News report that 13 people with Syrian passports have tried to cross the border from Mexico to the US. They surrendered to US authorities and asked for asylum.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Corbyn on defence is like Sooty and Sweep on physics

    I was led to believe that Sooty has a PHD in particle physics and Sweep has a PHD in Quantum Mechanics and journalism. Is my information incorrect? ;)
  • while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing
  • Corbyn on defence is like Sooty and Sweep on physics

    As usual, wo0men scientists contribution belittled. Sue was the physics genius on that programme
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2015
    Look what nut jobs will still be in Syria if we get rid of ISIS..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sPY0X8SrLo
  • Look what nut jobs will still be in Syria if we get rid of ISIS..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sPY0X8SrLo

    didn't have time to watch it all. poor kids

    and all the more reason why Dave really needs a good plan for what happens after
  • LondonBob said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    Looks like the ludicrously over praised Dan Jarvis can forget about being next Labour leader, wildly out of touch with both voters and the Labour Party members.

    Here are five platitudes which no one ever met which are my preconditions.....

    In the meantime, the Guardian has a fairly balanced view on the Defence Review:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/the-guardian-view-on-the-defence-review-making-ends-meet-in-troubled-times
  • beginning to wonder if Trump's candidacy is a "Springtime for Hitler" style plot

  • Oldham West will be flooded with Labour MPs on Tuesday as they are encouraged to leave London to avoid having to take part in an awkward Commons debate on the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb94731e-91ed-11e5-94e6-c5413829caa5.html#ixzz3sNo04TB9
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    I suspect that Cameron is carefully getting all his 'Labour MP's lined up in a row for a clear and divisive Syria vote....

    while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter has been full of misleading SNP grudge and grievance over the Naval frigate order for the Clyde last night. And yet those same SNP MP's and MSP's would vote today to send those Scottish workers at Faslane down to the job centre along with their local economy. Hypocrites.


    Oldham West will be flooded with Labour MPs on Tuesday as they are encouraged to leave London to avoid having to take part in an awkward Commons debate on the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb94731e-91ed-11e5-94e6-c5413829caa5.html#ixzz3sNo04TB9

  • fitalass said:

    I suspect that Cameron is carefully getting all his 'Labour MP's lined up in a row for a clear and divisive Syria vote....

    while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing

    Yes, I'm sure he has a plan for passing a vote, and he'll probably be successful.

    I'm still none the wiser what the plan for a post ISIS syria/iraq is.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    fitalass said:

    I suspect that Cameron is carefully getting all his 'Labour MP's lined up in a row for a clear and divisive Syria vote....

    while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing

    Yes, I'm sure he has a plan for passing a vote, and he'll probably be successful.

    I'm still none the wiser what the plan for a post ISIS syria/iraq is.
    It would be odd if you were as he hasn't presented his case yet. Sounds like you're not especially ready to listen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    felix said:

    fitalass said:

    I suspect that Cameron is carefully getting all his 'Labour MP's lined up in a row for a clear and divisive Syria vote....

    while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing

    Yes, I'm sure he has a plan for passing a vote, and he'll probably be successful.

    I'm still none the wiser what the plan for a post ISIS syria/iraq is.
    It would be odd if you were as he hasn't presented his case yet. Sounds like you're not especially ready to listen.
    I'm ready to listen - I just suspect the uk pm's plan, whatever it is, will be of marginal significance to anything that can or will be implemented.
  • kle4 said:

    felix said:

    fitalass said:

    I suspect that Cameron is carefully getting all his 'Labour MP's lined up in a row for a clear and divisive Syria vote....

    while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing

    Yes, I'm sure he has a plan for passing a vote, and he'll probably be successful.

    I'm still none the wiser what the plan for a post ISIS syria/iraq is.
    It would be odd if you were as he hasn't presented his case yet. Sounds like you're not especially ready to listen.
    I'm ready to listen - I just suspect the uk pm's plan, whatever it is, will be of marginal significance to anything that can or will be implemented.
    Yes - is that a good reason for 'doing nothing'?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    fitalass said:

    I suspect that Cameron is carefully getting all his 'Labour MP's lined up in a row for a clear and divisive Syria vote....

    while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing

    Yes, I'm sure he has a plan for passing a vote, and he'll probably be successful.

    I'm still none the wiser what the plan for a post ISIS syria/iraq is.
    It would be odd if you were as he hasn't presented his case yet. Sounds like you're not especially ready to listen.
    I'm ready to listen - I just suspect the uk pm's plan, whatever it is, will be of marginal significance to anything that can or will be implemented.
    Yes - is that a good reason for 'doing nothing'?
    Probably not - a year ago I'd have said yes, but things aren't getting better regardless, so the fear of making things worse through blundering is lessened.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited November 2015

    Corbyn on defence is like Sooty and Sweep on physics

    Sooty is superb on hydrodynamics.
  • felix said:

    fitalass said:

    I suspect that Cameron is carefully getting all his 'Labour MP's lined up in a row for a clear and divisive Syria vote....

    while Dan Jarvis's plan is rather than, "don't worry, I have a cunning plan", "Let's hope the prime minister has a cunning plan"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/five-tests-military-action-syria-david-cameron-islamic-state

    not especially convincing

    Yes, I'm sure he has a plan for passing a vote, and he'll probably be successful.

    I'm still none the wiser what the plan for a post ISIS syria/iraq is.
    It would be odd if you were as he hasn't presented his case yet. Sounds like you're not especially ready to listen.
    not at all. If there's a coherent plan which won't result in world war 3 I'm all for storming in and murdering the bastards.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12013016/Majority-of-British-public-favour-leaving-EU-poll-finds.html

    Looks like the OUT campaign are getting their heads together in a concerted way. The tide is definitely turning, a matter of weeks ago it was unanimous that IN would win comfortably, now I'm not so sure.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34906011

    Good news. Why did it take so ;long ? Was it not to upset the Saudis ?

    From the article:

    "Previously, petrol supplies were largely avoided because of the impact on civilian populations."

    Since the oil is mostly being smuggled out through Turkey and Iran, the Saudis would probably either not care, or like them being bombed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited November 2015
    LondonBob said:

    Pong said:

    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
    Presumably, it was those men in that room who oversaw the shooting down of MH17.

    Still, you've got to admire their smart boilersuits, right?
    I wasn't aware that the investigation had concluded on that? As I understand it the Dutch report concluded that MH17 was shot down by a BUK missile only operated by the Ukrainians.

    https://consortiumnews.com/2015/10/13/mh-17-the-dog-still-not-barking/
    No.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/mh17-crash-report-plane-partially-reconstruced-blames-buk-missile-strike

    AFAICR without reading the report again, it says it was a Russian-built missile. The Russians claim they have none of the model they claim left; the report says it could have been a missile type they have. This is why there has been so much argument over the shrapnel found at the crash site - it;s indicative of which type was used.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12013016/Majority-of-British-public-favour-leaving-EU-poll-finds.html

    Looks like the OUT campaign are getting their heads together in a concerted way. The tide is definitely turning, a matter of weeks ago it was unanimous that IN would win comfortably, now I'm not so sure.

    It means nothing of the sort. Even if you "believe" this poll , its margin of error is plus or minus 3% so it could easily be a rogue poll or could be showing a majority wanting to stay.

    Only if you slavishly believe headline numbers could you write such a headline.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Some 54 per cent of people who voted Conservative at the May election want to leave the EU, as do 93 per cent of Ukip voters. But a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Green supporters want to remain."
    Tories will be the swing voters in EUref
    Indeed. I read thru the PDF of the SDSR and it mentioned the EURef "before the end of 2017", which is the first time I've seen it formulated that way (as opposed to "by 2017"). It's getting crowded: if it's not held in September next year and it creeps into 2017, then doesn't it run into the 2017 French Presidential and 2017 German Federal? Getting agreement from Hollande is one thing, but LePen? Oy, oy, oy...
    If Le Pen wins the EU collapses anyway, night
    Does it? Even if parliament passed a referendum bill the voters would probably vote to stay in.
    I'm not expecting a Le Pen win, even now, although I think she'll top the poll. But if she did win, the likelihood is that FN would win a majority in the subsequent legislative election, and public opinion would be sufficiently radicalised to make Frexit likely.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12013016/Majority-of-British-public-favour-leaving-EU-poll-finds.html

    Looks like the OUT campaign are getting their heads together in a concerted way. The tide is definitely turning, a matter of weeks ago it was unanimous that IN would win comfortably, now I'm not so sure.

    It means nothing of the sort. Even if you "believe" this poll , its margin of error is plus or minus 3% so it could easily be a rogue poll or could be showing a majority wanting to stay.

    Only if you slavishly believe headline numbers could you write such a headline.

    Ah I see, a poll that gives a result you don't like can't be trusted. What is undeniable is that the polls are moving in favour of OUT, possibly not sufficient. It seems you skipped over the bit where two campaign groups are in negotiation.

    IN are clearly getting worried.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Worthy of Cubby Broccoli - it's a movie set for real life baddies. Just epic
    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Worthy of Cubby Broccoli - it's a movie set for real life baddies. Just epic

    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
    I'm intrigued by those balconies which seem rather deep, as if they are supposed to carry a very heavy weight. Or perhaps they've just been over-engineered as the place is a target for bombing.

    But I like the way the screens wrap around.

    As I'v said before on here, Russia has some brilliant engineers. They were let down by the system they were working under.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Tom said:

    Tom said:

    Where does Uncle Len sit on all this?

    Ask tom Watson.
    That seems too simple. I know he's slippery but Uncle Len might prefer it soap induced rather than oil.
    Ex-flat mates. Also note that Big Len supported Burnham, not Corbyn.
    Burnham is easily malleable; Corbyn not so much.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ariehkovler: Of course, Ed Miliband also thought Ed Miliband had what it takes to be Prime Minister, so maybe this isn't his area https://t.co/VekRfKJZpG
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12013016/Majority-of-British-public-favour-leaving-EU-poll-finds.html

    Looks like the OUT campaign are getting their heads together in a concerted way. The tide is definitely turning, a matter of weeks ago it was unanimous that IN would win comfortably, now I'm not so sure.

    It means nothing of the sort. Even if you "believe" this poll , its margin of error is plus or minus 3% so it could easily be a rogue poll or could be showing a majority wanting to stay.

    Only if you slavishly believe headline numbers could you write such a headline.

    Ah I see, a poll that gives a result you don't like can't be trusted. What is undeniable is that the polls are moving in favour of OUT, possibly not sufficient. It seems you skipped over the bit where two campaign groups are in negotiation.

    IN are clearly getting worried.

    A poll SINGULAR.. look at All the polls if you have to be definite about the outcome. I have every reason to mistrust any poll. Look at GE 2015 and bar the exit poll they were all wrong.

    You are behaving like Corbyn, tweeting about a poll that says Labour diehards think he is doing a good job!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    I was rewatching Fringe for the umpteenth time over the weekend. Walter remarks on what the Russkies were up to in WW2 and rolls his eyes with a mixture of admiration and horror. I wish they'd covered that as part of the plotting.

    It would've been brilliant. I thought the Nazi episode was very predictable.

    Worthy of Cubby Broccoli - it's a movie set for real life baddies. Just epic

    viewcode said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3330337/Now-s-war-room-Inside-Russia-s-fortified-triple-decker-operations-base-Putin-masterminds-strikes-Syria.html

    Don't envy their job, having the big man watching from the stands. Make a mistake and you could end up strapped to one of those rockets.

    I know the Russians are bad guys with expansionist attitudes and careless about killing civilians, national boundaries and the whole good/evil thing, but...fuck, that's impressive. Neat color scheme. Can we have one?
    I'm intrigued by those balconies which seem rather deep, as if they are supposed to carry a very heavy weight. Or perhaps they've just been over-engineered as the place is a target for bombing.

    But I like the way the screens wrap around.

    As I'v said before on here, Russia has some brilliant engineers. They were let down by the system they were working under.
  • Not surprised that bullying seems to be endemic in Conservative Future:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DAITojkwgQ
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.
  • DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'd discount your third explanation on this occasion. YouGov would need to be very wrong indeed for the basic point behind these results to be invalidated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PCollinsTimes: The Times poll doesn't say what it says. Even with no named rival, just 57% think Corbyn should lead Labour in 2020. That means he won't.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.
    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'd discount your third explanation on this occasion. YouGov would need to be very wrong indeed for the basic point behind these results to be invalidated.
    Given the scale of the findings I have to accept that may be true. They may have exaggerated the results by a few percentage points but that would not change the results materially.

    Labour are indeed in a very bad place but I suspect most of the loyalty I have referred to would transfer to any other leadership that replaced Corbyn provided they were not thought to have betrayed him. They like the idea of betrayal as much on the left as they do on the Thatcherite right, one of many things they have in common.
  • DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    YouGov were very accurate on the Labour leadership election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    YouGov were very accurate on the Labour leadership election.
    But they are not a terrorist organisation who only have to get lucky once. Not even I would claim that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Corbyn is in his honeymoon. There have been just 2-3 CLP meetings since he got the job. It takes more time for rumblings to develop.

    That said he will always be very popular with some that hitherto have felt excluded from politics.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    In another universe, I'd like a good LotO too - but we don't. And I agree that the SNP are doing a better job of it.

    I'm firmly of the view that to get Labour to wake up - they need to be floored whilst still alive - at least that gives the sensible ones a chance to get back up from the canvas.

    As it is - limping along does them no good - but we can't wish the pain period away. It needs to be really felt and to hurt like hell.
    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.
  • DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.

    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    The members voted for Corbyn because he was not Blair, because he despised Blair and all his works and because the other candidates were seen as on the side of the Blair line, the wrong side as far as the members were concerned. So it's little wonder they think he is doing a good job. They don't care about the MPs and they certainly don't care about other voters.

    They didn't like the Iraq war, some of them don't like us being involved in bombing Iraq now and they don't want us involved in Syria either. There is no reason to suppose this will change, not least because bombing Syria is not going to be the answer to make IS vanish from the world, things may get worse before (if) they get better and it is quite possible that there will be more IS terrorism within Europe. The issue with the bombing is not about flattening the bastards (a bloody good idea) but what next? There is as yet no coherent answer to that question. It is a legitimate question that the government should be made to answer, even if Corbyn has disqualified himself from being listened to on it. But someone should ask it because it seems to me that the government risks simply listening to the drumbeats of war.

    Labour have 3 choices: (1) MPs opposed to Corbyn start putting an alternative case to the members to persuade them to change their minds; (2) they oust Corbyn - messy and he may well be re-elected; (3) the members change their mind and Corbyn/the SWP Left loses support. The polls are bad but they can console themselves that the polls may be wrong, as they were in May. Labour may not lose elections badly enough or they can find another explanation for the losses and the Middle Eastern mess becomes worse.

    (1) ought to happen but it takes courage to talk to people who disagree with you and to communicate effectively you need to have something to say. I've seen no evidence that even the much touted future stars of Labour (Jarvis, Umunna etc) have anything substantive to say about their view of what Labour should be, beyond banalities best left on a sampler in a tea shop. So they're in a pickle.

    Or they could just put up with Corbyn and see what happens. Inertia and doing nothing and finding reasons to do nothing are usually the default option when faced with difficult choices.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Even defeat wont stop Corbyn and co. They are as delusional as its possible to be.

    Frankly this joke opposition had already run its course but its determined to keep rolling along.

    What I worry about isn't Corbyn, its another poll tax type fiasco as a result of over confidence and zero opposition.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Forgot those numbers, it's the PLP and their competence/cowardice that matters.

    Speaking of Corbyn, was nice to see some footage of politicians speaking in the Commons at ten last night, except that Cameron's reply to Corbyn should've been shown. The Leader of the Opposition was lauding the idea of abolishing the armed forces in August, and the Shadow Chancellor wanted to disband MI5 and disarm the police. In the context of Defence and anti-terrorism, these things are rather pertinent.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.

    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

    The SWP and Respect people - and I would watch what people like Livingstone and others are doing behind the scenes - will be taking control of the Labour party machinery. That is what matters because it means that even if Corbyn goes they get their men in charge, not just of the fancy front bench stuff, but of the policies and the rules and the selection procedures etc. And once in it takes a lot of hard graft to get them out. Ask Kinnock.

  • Cyclefree said:

    The members voted for Corbyn because he was not Blair, because he despised Blair and all his works and because the other candidates were seen as on the side of the Blair line, the wrong side as far as the members were concerned. So it's little wonder they think he is doing a good job. They don't care about the MPs and they certainly don't care about other voters.

    They didn't like the Iraq war, some of them don't like us being involved in bombing Iraq now and they don't want us involved in Syria either. There is no reason to suppose this will change, not least because bombing Syria is not going to be the answer to make IS vanish from the world, things may get worse before (if) they get better and it is quite possible that there will be more IS terrorism within Europe. The issue with the bombing is not about flattening the bastards (a bloody good idea) but what next? There is as yet no coherent answer to that question. It is a legitimate question that the government should be made to answer, even if Corbyn has disqualified himself from being listened to on it. But someone should ask it because it seems to me that the government risks simply listening to the drumbeats of war.

    Labour have 3 choices: (1) MPs opposed to Corbyn start putting an alternative case to the members to persuade them to change their minds; (2) they oust Corbyn - messy and he may well be re-elected; (3) the members change their mind and Corbyn/the SWP Left loses support. The polls are bad but they can console themselves that the polls may be wrong, as they were in May. Labour may not lose elections badly enough or they can find another explanation for the losses and the Middle Eastern mess becomes worse.

    (1) ought to happen but it takes courage to talk to people who disagree with you and to communicate effectively you need to have something to say. I've seen no evidence that even the much touted future stars of Labour (Jarvis, Umunna etc) have anything substantive to say about their view of what Labour should be, beyond banalities best left on a sampler in a tea shop. So they're in a pickle.

    Or they could just put up with Corbyn and see what happens. Inertia and doing nothing and finding reasons to do nothing are usually the default option when faced with difficult choices.

    I doubt there is much that the likes of Jarvis and Umunna could say at this stage that would convince either Labour members or you that they were anything other than shallow shysters. What they and Labour needs is a string of defeats - humiliating, relentless and heavy. There are some Corbynistas who are not of the hard left, who do want to see a Labour government but who, in their blind foolishness, still believe that voters can be persuaded from the centre. They need to see the reality. Only then are they worth engaging with. Here's hoping the process starts in Oldham and continues into next year.
  • Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.

    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

    The SWP and Respect people - and I would watch what people like Livingstone and others are doing behind the scenes - will be taking control of the Labour party machinery. That is what matters because it means that even if Corbyn goes they get their men in charge, not just of the fancy front bench stuff, but of the policies and the rules and the selection procedures etc. And once in it takes a lot of hard graft to get them out. Ask Kinnock.

    The non-Corbynite MPs are making a lot of noise but there is no evidence that they have any kind of plan or strategy. I would happily put one together for them if they're really stuck.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cyclefree said:

    The members voted for Corbyn because he was not Blair, because he despised Blair and all his works and because the other candidates were seen as on the side of the Blair line, the wrong side as far as the members were concerned. So it's little wonder they think he is doing a good job. They don't care about the MPs and they certainly don't care about other voters.

    They didn't like the Iraq war, some of them don't like us being involved in bombing Iraq now and they don't want us involved in Syria either...

    From what I could see Iraq did play a part, but Blair really did not specifically. Many of those who voted Corbyn voted for him because he stood up to the political establishment as a whole and that they were fed up with the clones that lead all parties. Blair was part of that, but so was Dave and the other leadership candidates.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.
    is if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.

    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

    Yes because even if Lab support drops to 20%, and that consisting of people who would vote for the proverbial donkey with a red rosette, that is more than he ever, ever thought possible while Chair of the Islington and district Stop the War/Troops Out meetings.

    Of course we are all hoping he will have a moment of clarity and do what is best for the country/party.

    But I can't see it.
  • Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.

    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

    The SWP and Respect people - and I would watch what people like Livingstone and others are doing behind the scenes - will be taking control of the Labour party machinery. That is what matters because it means that even if Corbyn goes they get their men in charge, not just of the fancy front bench stuff, but of the policies and the rules and the selection procedures etc. And once in it takes a lot of hard graft to get them out. Ask Kinnock.

    Yep - that is the prize. Corbyn will try to hold on so that he can engineer the complete hard left takeover of Labour.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Good morning, everyone.

    Forgot those numbers, it's the PLP and their competence/cowardice that matters.

    Speaking of Corbyn, was nice to see some footage of politicians speaking in the Commons at ten last night, except that Cameron's reply to Corbyn should've been shown. The Leader of the Opposition was lauding the idea of abolishing the armed forces in August, and the Shadow Chancellor wanted to disband MI5 and disarm the police. In the context of Defence and anti-terrorism, these things are rather pertinent.

    and in case you missed it..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=I1OVtNBSktI
  • Although, having said that, the numbers may help the PLP to excuse their craven ways by letting themselves be persuaded they'd fail anyway.
  • Mr. Root, the video won't play for me. If it's the minute or so of Cameron's response, I saw it yesterday.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited November 2015
    Well whatever the merits of this opposition, they still managed to defeat the govt on Tax Credits. If the opposition is weak, the govt is weaker.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    Firstly, and most likely, the average Labour voter is pretty loyal and not that interested in the details of what is currently going on. Knowing the Tories are evil is enough and supporting the leadership of the forces of light is a natural response. This applies even more so to the active membership. They may have a better idea that things are sub optimal but are even more vociferous about hating the Tories.

    Secondly, as Tom suggests down thread, the Labour party is simply full of mad people. Whilst they, like all other political parties, probably have a much higher percentage of mad people than the general population (who are smart enough to ignore politics at least 90% of the time) this seems inherently less likely.

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.

    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

    The SWP and Respect people - and I would watch what people like Livingstone and others are doing behind the scenes - will be taking control of the Labour party machinery. That is what matters because it means that even if Corbyn goes they get their men in charge, not just of the fancy front bench stuff, but of the policies and the rules and the selection procedures etc. And once in it takes a lot of hard graft to get them out. Ask Kinnock.

    Which is why MPs will give him two years and then have to nominate Hilary Benn to replace him unopposed
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Corbyn is the left's Farage. The key difference is that he is operating inside a major party.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ms Sylvester in The Times today notes that Fisher is busy setting up the Hounslow branch of Momentum on Thursday, McDonnell is speaking at the Waltham Forest rally tomorrow rather than focusing on the Autumn Statement - this branch are plotting to oust Stella Creasey.

    It's very clear where their attention is.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4621741.ece
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.

    snip

    Thirdly, Yougov internet polling is unreliable and based upon unrepresentative samples that don't reflect the views of the population or voters. I am sure I could dig up some evidence to support that hypothesis if I tried hard enough.

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.

    Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it, no matter how evil, barbaric or contrary to our values they might be.

    We no longer have public stocks but the Front Bench of the House of Commons will do. Such sad, pathetic and delusional thinking deserves the kind of mockery and humiliation that it received yesterday. But it does mean we do not have a meaningful opposition. And that is not a good thing.

    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

    The SWP and Respect people - and I would watch what people like Livingstone and others are doing behind the scenes - will be taking control of the Labour party machinery. That is what matters because it means that even if Corbyn goes they get their men in charge, not just of the fancy front bench stuff, but of the policies and the rules and the selection procedures etc. And once in it takes a lot of hard graft to get them out. Ask Kinnock.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited November 2015
    Jonathan said:

    Well whatever the merits of this opposition, they still managed to defeat the govt on Tax Credits. If the opposition is weak, the govt is weaker.

    Urm, no - that was the Lords, because of cross benchers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn is the left's Farage. The key difference is that he is operating inside a major party.

    No. Farage and UKIP's policies are nowhere near as loony as Corbyn.

    Corbyn might be a nicer person (and I say 'might'), but his policies and views are much more of a danger to the country than Farage's.

    Just look at the demolition job Cameron did on him yesterday, using Corbyn's own words.
  • Unidentified warplane shot down in Syria after violating Turkish airspace:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34907983
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it'

    that's true of the SNP as well though isn't it? Seems to work OK for them though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2015
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    Everyone says Lab won't ditch Corbyn and of course it looks that way. But is it inevitable?

    He got just under 60%. That means only 1 in 6 people has to desert him to take him under 50%.

    Suppose:

    1) He faces a single, much more effective challenger than Burnham / Cooper

    2) The contest is on the back of disastrous May 2016 election results

    Is it really inconceivable that the momentum behind him might change?

    What it needs is an actual defeat in an actual election. The members think Corbyn is good, they hear from other members who think he's good, and they won't believe the media telling them he'a shit. The only thing that could persuade them is a thumping great election loss.

    The problem for Labour is that a local or Euro election may not be enough. They may need to conclusively lose a *general* election.
    Or a by-election to UKIP
    That probably won't be enough. They'd also have to lose the London mayoralty and the Welsh Assembly.
    By 2017 it will be enough it was the Brent East by election which did for IDS
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited November 2015
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Well whatever the merits of this opposition, they still managed to defeat the govt on Tax Credits. If the opposition is weak, the govt is weaker.

    Urm, no - that was the Lords, because of cross benchers.
    It was a Labour motion that defeated the govt. But who cares, opposition is opposition.
  • Mr. Jonathan, the unelected Upper House decided to tear up the Salisbury Convention. That's not clever polititicking, it's Lib Dems being dummy-spitting juveniles and Labour being short-sighted fools.

    Miss Plato, they're mad. Creasy was perhaps the only person last Parliament to make the running from opposition (her campaign led to changes for firms lending at high rates).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn is the left's Farage. The key difference is that he is operating inside a major party.

    No he is the left's IDS, Farage is a much more effective party leader
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    What we do appear to divine is that this huge positive for Corbyn within Labour voters isn't being perversely influenced by Tories who are delighted by Jezza.

    DavidL said:

    For me, there are a range of possibilities from this polling.
    .

    I'm not. A government is greatly assisted by a competent opposition asking hard questions and making relevant points. The SNP are making a better fist of that at the moment than the Labour party.


    Corbyn is not getting his comeuppance, he is getting more than he ever dreamed possible.

    The SWP and Respect people - and I would watch what people like Livingstone and others are doing behind the scenes - will be taking control of the Labour party machinery. That is what matters because it means that even if Corbyn goes they get their men in charge, not just of the fancy front bench stuff, but of the policies and the rules and the selection procedures etc. And once in it takes a lot of hard graft to get them out. Ask Kinnock.

    Which is why MPs will give him two years and then have to nominate Hilary Benn to replace him unopposed
    I agree with all that - except that I think it will be one year and he will go of his own accord.

    The crunch will come when review groups set up by the NEC come up with policies on defence that he cannot accept. He will do the honourable thing and resign in 2016, probably after the May elections. I really don't think he wants to lead the party into the next election and the battering he is getting will be confirming this in his mind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    runnymede said:

    'Corbyn is getting his comeuppance for a deluded, self indulgent life wasted by finding fault in everything that his country has done and finding virtue in everyone who opposes it'

    that's true of the SNP as well though isn't it? Seems to work OK for them though

    They did lose the referendum
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Mr. Root, the video won't play for me. If it's the minute or so of Cameron's response, I saw it yesterday.

    it was

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, the unelected Upper House decided to tear up the Salisbury Convention. That's not clever polititicking, it's Lib Dems being dummy-spitting juveniles and Labour being short-sighted fools.

    It was an entirely good thing, it made the govt think again on a poor policy.
  • It was appalling a boy was suspended from school and arrested for making a clock.

    But scrounging for $15m because he's 'traumatised' does rather lessen my sympathy for him:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34904226
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Turkey have reportedly show down a Russian jet
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Well whatever the merits of this opposition, they still managed to defeat the govt on Tax Credits. If the opposition is weak, the govt is weaker.

    Urm, no - that was the Lords, because of cross benchers.
    It was a Labour motion that defeated the govt. But who cares, opposition is opposition.
    But claiming a Lords defeat = weak government is hilarious.

    Did you see the polls on Saturday? Tories are supported on economy and national security. That's landslide material.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited November 2015

    Unidentified warplane shot down in Syria after violating Turkish airspace:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34907983

    Plane crashes and no explosion. Funny that.
    http://ind.pn/1Odv9dD
  • Mr. Jonathan, we've got a deficit that needs to end, and less than a year since an election the unelected peers (for the first time, I believe) voted down a financial measure because Farron wants to act like an obnoxious oaf to try and provoke Lords reform.

    Suppose Corbyn resigns today, Stella Creasy becomes leader, and she wins the next election.

    And the Conservative peers vote down her finance measures. Will you nod and remark on what a jolly good thing it is?

    Conventions are there for a reason (such as the idea top police and military personnel should not enter into the political sphere). Labour were quick to shriek when the general recently, and wrongly, made a political foray.

    Mr. Root, the last 30s or so of that should've been on the news.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, we've got a deficit that needs to end, and less than a year since an election the unelected peers (for the first time, I believe) voted down a financial measure because Farron wants to act like an obnoxious oaf to try and provoke Lords reform.

    Suppose Corbyn resigns today, Stella Creasy becomes leader, and she wins the next election.

    And the Conservative peers vote down her finance measures. Will you nod and remark on what a jolly good thing it is?

    Conventions are there for a reason (such as the idea top police and military personnel should not enter into the political sphere). Labour were quick to shriek when the general recently, and wrongly, made a political foray.

    Mr. Root, the last 30s or so of that should've been on the news.

    Get over it. It was bad policy.
This discussion has been closed.