A number of Labour MPs are campaigning in Oldham today, with fears growing in the party that it could be in serious trouble in the by-election there. Even though Michael Meacher won the seat in May with a 14,000 majority, the fears that I reported last week about white working class voters turning away from Labour and plumping instead for Ukip seem to be growing. No MP who has been there has anything positive to say about what they’ve seen, other than that their candidate, Jim McMahon, is hugely impressive.
I am sure they will win, but still, given Corbynism is supposedly sweeping the nation, talk that even getting the usual boat load of votes in this constituency isn't a great sign.
"The absence of an alternative who has a clear path to victory over the Tories makes the choice easy. If such an alternative appeared, people would consider it, but at present the choice is someone who speaks for us and...not very much. Certainly I am not minded ever to vote for one of the people who are indulging in whinging and sniping without a coherent idea of their own, and I suspect others feel the same."
Though I take your point Labour supporters above all want an effective opposition. I find nothing more frustrating than watching the Tories prance around like peacocks with no opposition because Corbyn's Labour Party don't know how to oppose
Hear, hear. I expect Labour to expose them for the shower they are. What's tragic is that it's not that hard.
Exposing Cameron and his clique for what they are shouldn't be that hard I agree, though not many people seem to manage it. However, that is a necessary but not sufficient activity of you want to get the Conservatives out of government. Surely it is also necessary to offer a coherent, convincing and attractive alternative. Labour are so far away from doing that as to be in fairy land.
There is of course no rule that says a party cannot continue to be elected to govern for decades. It has happened, with greater or lesser success, in other countries and I see no reason why it could not happen here.
"The absence of an alternative who has a clear path to victory over the Tories makes the choice easy. If such an alternative appeared, people would consider it, but at present the choice is someone who speaks for us and...not very much. Certainly I am not minded ever to vote for one of the people who are indulging in whinging and sniping without a coherent idea of their own, and I suspect others feel the same."
Though I take your point Labour supporters above all want an effective opposition. I find nothing more frustrating than watching the Tories prance around like peacocks with no opposition because Corbyn's Labour Party don't know how to oppose
Hear, hear. I expect Labour to expose them for the shower they are. What's tragic is that it's not that hard.
Spot on - the Tories do not deserve the free ride they are getting and will continue to get with Corbyn and his mates in charge. Even in the few months since the Tories were elected there has been plenty of meat for a half decent opposition to feed on, with more on the way. But we don't have a half decent opposition, so the Tories genuinely have absolutely nothing to worry about except who will take over from Dave and win the 2020 GE. It's this abrogation of responsibility that I find most unforgiveable about Nick and the other Corbynistas. It's all about them, not the people that need a sensible alternative to the Tories.
Quite so.
This is a government getting an easy ride , long term this isn't actually good for the Tories either.
Egad! Mssrs Brooke and Observer are in agreement. As they are leading members of the PB aspirant entrepreneurial class, albeit from different wings, this is, I think, significant. What worries me even more is that I agree with them (again).
I think I need to go and lie down, however duty calls and so I am off. Not to the XIVth century today, but to May/June 1940. Chamberlain is out, the maverick Churchill is in but Halifax wants a different strategy - Chamberlain is still in the Cabinet and holds the key, with whom will he side? The cabinet papers await.
Thanks for some interesting conversation and play nicely, all.
Labour is way too unstable right now to be taking 11/8 bets on the identity of its leader at a distance of 4 1/2 years. Some of the longshots for next Labour leader might well be worth sniffing around though.
Theoretical market - how many MPs will Labour have at their next leadership election?
0-100 8/1 101-200 11/5 201+ 1/2
That's probably about right. On the face of it, 8/1 for sub-100 looks short but Labour are playing a very dangerous game at the moment. Outside of some Welsh, London, other inner-city and trendy lefty seats, where is his base? That Oldham might reduce a Labour majority from 15000 to 1500 gives some indication of the risks involved. Likewise, a full-on split could produce a sub-100 total. It might not be likely but then it doesn't need to be to: 8/1 is only an 11% shot in total.
Political identity is not what it was and while there may still be strongly anti-Tory and anti-Labour voters, no party can rely on that translating into natural positive support for them.
@John_M Corbynites fighting a long game, most of them will be dead in the long run. given that Corbyn's core beliefs have been rejected time and time again since he entered politics. How much more time does he need?
Much of the hard Left's thought process is opaque to me, but my abiding impression is that they just think the electorate is wrong. They're waiting for us to wake up and get with the program. The only thing that's delaying that moment is the sad fact that we're sheeple eternally duped by the right wing MSM.
It seems to me that those wanting to use the left to further their power/ political ambitions always present an evangelical face (honest or not) which dupes the gullible and amuses or offends those disinclined to be seduced by tosh. Jihadi Jez has a long history of evangelicalism so his face seems like it might be honest and he comes across as deluded. I'm not sure whether that's more or less dangerous than the likes of Livingston or McDonnell.
We could be seeing expert expectations management about how Labour are going to do next week. But would the people managing the expectations actually want Labour to outperform expectations at present?
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
Let us hope that UKIP pulls it off. The future of the Labour party depends on it and heavy defeats across the board next year too.
The problem, though, with the latest polling is that it seems to indicate that Labour party members don't care about losing, so long as they have a leader who makes them feel good about themselves.
Thats the killer stat really. Labour won't get back into power until they tire of losing again, and i;ll take them several elections to get there.
Took the Tories three defeats in a row to come back to sanity.
From what I can see they are still on that journey.
We are indeed, if the final two in the Tory leadership contest is between Boris and George I know we've completed that journey.
I still have a fear the contest will be between Liam Fox and Owen Paterson (that still gives me nightmares)
The badgers outwitted Patterson, but I think he'll get the better of Liam Fox if it comes to that particular battle.
Patterson, the only Tory who could lose to Corbyn.
There is no such Tory. It'd even be a cakewalk for Nadine Dorries.
I would pay good money to see a head-to-head debate between Jezza and JR-M.
Again, that's not a contest. The Moggster is actually rather bright.
The Moggster disarmed the usual IEDs usually lobbed at MPs on Have I Got News For You last week. Helped by Victoria Coren Mitchell admitting to having a bit of a crush on him...
It’s no longer a question of “if” but “how”, not of “whether” but “when”. There has been such a fundamental breakdown of trust between Jeremy Corbyn and his MPs that it can be only a matter of time before they move against him. One backbencher says: “It’s always been the case that we need to get rid of him as quickly as we can. The only question now is how soon can that be?”
They should be named the Longshanks and the Margaret Thatcher
No problem with "Margaret Thatcher" (of blessed memory) registering but I think Longshanks will go over the heads of most Scots. To be fair, I think the significance of both would be lost on most English too.
As the King of Subtleness, I prefer subtle jokes/references that go over the heads of most people.
Makes me feel all smug and superior
I tried to think of something suitably obscure to respond with but I couldn't so I haven't.
Cyclefree on the last thread correctly points out that plenty of people have sincerely followed their principles and caused disaster because their principles turned out to be wrong (Savanorola and Robespierre, say). That's a sufficient argument not to vote for someone merely because they are people of principle.
But it's not an argument to abandon principle. Eventually you have to decide what you think, after as much input and discussion as you can (or are willing to) handle. Once you've decided what it is, you should argue the case for it, and I don't see a case for pretending to believe something else in order to get elected and then either do what you privately think is wrong, or get elected and then renege.
The way that Tony Blair squared the circle was to find plenty of things that we positively liked - minimum wage, action against discrimination, investment in the NHS, FOIA (even if he later regretted it himself), the Northern Ireland agreement - which allowed us to feel the package as a whole was good. That started to break down after Iraq and by 2015 we'd really run pretty dry on consensus improvements - I wasn't against an electricity price freeze, for instance, but it wasn't worth getting excited about. Centrists need a new project with positively attractive content.
I agree. It's not an argument for abandoning principles. It's an argument for having better principles.
I will put here what I put on the previous thread: I don't buy this latest fashionable guff that "standing up for what you believe in" is wonderful, regardless of what you believe in. History provides endless examples of people standing up for what they believe in and acting on those beliefs and causing nothing but chaos and pain and disaster.
It's what you believe in that matters. There is nothing admirable about standing up for repellent beliefs.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."
I agree with you and SO that we need a sensible centre left party. I wish there were one. I think it a real shame that there isn't one. I am baffled by your support for Corbyn. I can see why he appeals to those who voted for him but I think he has the wrong principles and will do nothing for Labour or those who want an alternative to the Tories.
If I had the time I would try and come up with what a sensible centre left party should be about, not because that is necessarily my natural home but precisely because it would be a challenge. But for the moment I have to work.
Also I suspect that with what's going on this site will temporarily morph back into Jane's Defence Weekly
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
Labour is way too unstable right now to be taking 11/8 bets on the identity of its leader at a distance of 4 1/2 years. Some of the longshots for next Labour leader might well be worth sniffing around though.
Theoretical market - how many MPs will Labour have at their next leadership election?
0-100 8/1 101-200 11/5 201+ 1/2
That's probably about right. On the face of it, 8/1 for sub-100 looks short but Labour are playing a very dangerous game at the moment. Outside of some Welsh, London, other inner-city and trendy lefty seats, where is his base? That Oldham might reduce a Labour majority from 15000 to 1500 gives some indication of the risks involved. Likewise, a full-on split could produce a sub-100 total. It might not be likely but then it doesn't need to be to: 8/1 is only an 11% shot in total.
Political identity is not what it was and while there may still be strongly anti-Tory and anti-Labour voters, no party can rely on that translating into natural positive support for them.
Labour seems intent on self destruction. It is like they have opened a restaurant, dedicated to the virtues of the Brussel Sprout. You can have the humble sprout presented to your table from any of the 82 items on the menu. Washed down with a nice glass of sprout water.
The maitre d simply refuses to believe that people don't like sprouts. "They just haven't eaten enough of them yet", he replies, dismissively.
Likely Russian response: Kurds just got a very powerful sponsor, no more Turkish bombing raids over Syria and Iraq, will be shot down as soon as they cross the border. Accelerated military action against Turkish proxies in Syria, no more talk of safe zones.
I would also guess an increased squeeze on Russian-Turkish trade. Russian tourism has gone, building contracts in Russia will at best not be renewed or initiated, Turkey is dependent on Russian and Iranian nat gas etc.
Robust but pragmatic.
Our response, forget about it Erdogan I should hope. Absolute lunatic.
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
What are Turkey playing at? Trying to send Putin a signal? I am not sure they would like him to signal back.
I hope Washington is on the phone pronto explaining that NATO is a mutual defence organisation. It doesn't necessarily provide protection for adventurism.
Indeed. An attack on a NATO country is an attack on all, but an attack by a NATO country is not (necessarily) an attack by all.
Likely Russian response: Kurds just got a very powerful sponsor, no more Turkish bombing raids over Syria and Iraq, will be shot down as soon as they cross the border. Accelerated military action against Turkish proxies in Syria, no more talk of safe zones.
I would also guess an increased squeeze on Russian-Turkish trade. Russian tourism has gone, building contracts in Russia will at best not be renewed or initiated, Turkey is dependent on Russian and Iranian nat gas etc.
Robust but pragmatic.
Our response, forget about it Erdogan I should hope. Absolute lunatic.
Am a bit worried about a weakened Turkey but what on earth are they thinking picking a fight with Russia. Muppets.
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
Likely Russian response: Kurds just got a very powerful sponsor, no more Turkish bombing raids over Syria and Iraq, will be shot down as soon as they cross the border. Accelerated military action against Turkish proxies in Syria, no more talk of safe zones.
I would also guess an increased squeeze on Russian-Turkish trade. Russian tourism has gone, building contracts in Russia will at best not be renewed or initiated, Turkey is dependent on Russian and Iranian nat gas etc.
Robust but pragmatic.
Our response, forget about it Erdogan I should hope. Absolute lunatic.
Unless the Russian plane did overfly Turkey (proper), in which case the Turks were in their rights.
It should be remembered that the Syrian Air Force also use SU-24 planes.
Labour lost one of their Bradford seats early in the last Parliament. Ed lived on.
That was down to local circumstances which aren't in play in Oldham. Respect (or more accurately, Galloway) was a local phenomenon; if UKIP do well in Oldham, that's readily transferrable to many other places across the country.
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
Let us hope that UKIP pulls it off. The future of the Labour party depends on it and heavy defeats across the board next year too.
The problem, though, with the latest polling is that it seems to indicate that Labour party members don't care about losing, so long as they have a leader who makes them feel good about themselves.
A Labour party that keeps on losing, even its heartlands, is for losers and no-one else. Let's see how long the Twitterati and Corbynista-lite factions hold together after relentless and hammering defeats show them just how unpopular their leader and their party are. The unions need an alternative to the Tories. They are stupid, yes; but not that stupid.
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
The most recent example was Leicester South, in 2004. The last example while Labour was in opposition was Govan, in 1988(?).
''In other news, another capitalist pig-dog has made a reusable rocket that can reach space:''
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
I agree, on the face of it. I also wonder what other applications it will find in industry.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
''In other news, another capitalist pig-dog has made a reusable rocket that can reach space:''
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
I agree, on the face of it. I also wonder what other applications it will find in industry.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
Alan Johnson should go on R5's "defend the indefensible" part of the Fighting talk show. On BBC DP he has spent his time playing down any major problem with Corbyn, quoting a "recent Mori survey where the gap was 37% Tory to 35% Labour". He now is laying into a leftie who happens not to be a Labour party member.... but of course one likely to be soon inside. AJ now getting angry - yet AJ ignores the entryism that has already happened!
''In other news, another capitalist pig-dog has made a reusable rocket that can reach space:''
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
I agree, on the face of it. I also wonder what other applications it will find in industry.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
What are Virgin Galactic up to these days?
I think the inhabitants of the tiny New Mexico town are wondering the same, after seeing millions of dollars of tax payers money being spent on the project. Not to mention all those celebs who have paid for tickets. I think they might be getting a little concerned if they will ever leave the ground.
''In other news, another capitalist pig-dog has made a reusable rocket that can reach space:''
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
I agree, on the face of it. I also wonder what other applications it will find in industry.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
What are Virgin Galactic up to these days?
They are like the Lib Dems of the space race at the moment methinks.
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
The most recent example was Leicester South, in 2004. The last example while Labour was in opposition was Govan, in 1988(?).
''In other news, another capitalist pig-dog has made a reusable rocket that can reach space:''
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
I agree, on the face of it. I also wonder what other applications it will find in industry.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
What are Virgin Galactic up to these days?
They are like someone who was a virgin, but is no longer a virgin.
''In other news, another capitalist pig-dog has made a reusable rocket that can reach space:''
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
I agree, on the face of it. I also wonder what other applications it will find in industry.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
What are Virgin Galactic up to these days?
They are like the Lib Dems of the space race at the moment methinks.
Tinkering with everyone else's rocket designs from the Intergalactic House of Lords even though no-one gives a sh1t about them?
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
The most recent example was Leicester South, in 2004. The last example while Labour was in opposition was Govan, in 1988(?).
Such cases are, however, rare.
It was coming third in the Brent East by election which toppled IDS
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
Let us hope that UKIP pulls it off. The future of the Labour party depends on it and heavy defeats across the board next year too.
The problem, though, with the latest polling is that it seems to indicate that Labour party members don't care about losing, so long as they have a leader who makes them feel good about themselves.
A Labour party that keeps on losing, even its heartlands, is for losers and no-one else. Let's see how long the Twitterati and Corbynista-lite factions hold together after relentless and hammering defeats show them just how unpopular their leader and their party are. The unions need an alternative to the Tories. They are stupid, yes; but not that stupid.
Hmmm - my problem is to know just how many of the current Labour 'moderates' are like NPXMP used to be until his post defeat revelations that he supports an anti-English terrorist apologist. The worst of the cancer in the party may be limited to the corbynistas but please let's not pretend that the rest are angels of Liberalism.
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
The most recent example was Leicester South, in 2004. The last example while Labour was in opposition was Govan, in 1988(?).
However, losing safe seats while a party's in government is one thing; losing them in opposition is a wholly different matter. I think - from a quick scan - that Labour's only lost ten in opposition since 1945:
Brighouse & Spenborough, 1960, to the Conservatives Bristol SE, 1961, to the Conservatives (but only because Benn, who 'won' was disqualified) Rochdale, 1972, to the Liberals Lincoln, 1973, to Ind Lab (actually a Dick Taverne hold) Glasgow Govan, 1973, to the SNP Mitcham & Morden, 1982, to the Conservatives Bermondsey, 1983, to the Liberals Greenwich, 1987, the SDP Glasgow Govan, 1988, to the SNP Bradford West, 2012, to Respect
"The absence of an alternative who has a clear path to victory over the Tories makes the choice easy. If such an alternative appeared, people would consider it, but at present the choice is someone who speaks for us and...not very much. Certainly I am not minded ever to vote for one of the people who are indulging in whinging and sniping without a coherent idea of their own, and I suspect others feel the same."
Though I take your point Labour supporters above all want an effective opposition. I find nothing more frustrating than watching the Tories prance around like peacocks with no opposition because Corbyn's Labour Party don't know how to oppose
Hear, hear. I expect Labour to expose them for the shower they are. What's tragic is that it's not that hard.
Spot on - the Tories do not deserve the free ride they are getting and will continue to get with Corbyn and his mates in charge. Even in the few months since the Tories were elected there has been plenty of meat for a half decent opposition to feed on, with more on the way. But we don't have a half decent opposition, so the Tories genuinely have absolutely nothing to worry about except who will take over from Dave and win the 2020 GE. It's this abrogation of responsibility that I find most unforgiveable about Nick and the other Corbynistas. It's all about them, not the people that need a sensible alternative to the Tories.
I remember my old history teacher also bemoaning the fact Blair and New Labour had no opposition in the IDS years, providing he holds his backbenchers Cameron, like Blair, is in effect a democratic dictator
This could get entertaining.....Putin accuses Turkey of supporting ISIS - yet the Russian jet was shot down in an area not controlled by ISIS......
Crickey, that them fighting words.
Edit: Did he says ISIS or as quoted by BBC, terrorists? Because as we know in Syria there are loads of different nutjob terrorist groups, and Turkeys hates the Kurds the most and there are plenty of these groups that are fighting them.
I linked to a new Vice film where they spent time with Al Nusra, who are an AQ affiliate.
@stephenkb: Just 53 Labour MPs have majorities bigger than Michael Meacher's was in 2015
@NickCohen4: @stephenkb People I spoke to in Oldham thought Lab would squeak it. Mind you that was last week
@stephenkb: @NickCohen4 Consensus at the moment seems to be Labour by 1000 votes. Hoping to go up later this week.
So, a 14,000 majority reduced to 1K?!
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
A 3k majority on a turnout of 25k would be a lead of 12%, which would still be a sizable swing to UKIP (obviously, it'd be a bigger lead if there's a smaller turnout) but more than Ladbrokes were implying in that earlier tweet, and more than most commentators seem to expect.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
The most recent example was Leicester South, in 2004. The last example while Labour was in opposition was Govan, in 1988(?).
However, losing safe seats while a party's in government is one thing; losing them in opposition is a wholly different matter. I think - from a quick scan - that Labour's only lost ten in opposition since 1945:
Brighouse & Spenborough, 1960, to the Conservatives Bristol SE, 1961, to the Conservatives (but only because Benn, who 'won' was disqualified) Rochdale, 1972, to the Liberals Lincoln, 1973, to Ind Lab (actually a Dick Taverne hold) Glasgow Govan, 1973, to the SNP Mitcham & Morden, 1982, to the Conservatives Bermondsey, 1983, to the Liberals Greenwich, 1987, the SDP Glasgow Govan, 1988, to the SNP Bradford West, 2012, to Respect
They also lost Sunderland South in the early 1950s, I think 1953.
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 5m5 minutes ago Sky Sources: Both pilots from the Russian warplane that was shot down by #Turkey over the Syrian border are dead
If this is the case, then NATO will have to be very careful in its dealings with Turkey.
Ivan Watson @IvanCNN 11m11 minutes ago Abu Ibrahim al-Sheghri, a rebel from 10th coastal brigade in Syria, tells CNN fighters machine gunned Russian pilots as they parachuted.
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 5m5 minutes ago Sky Sources: Both pilots from the Russian warplane that was shot down by #Turkey over the Syrian border are dead
But were both dead when they hit the ground, or did some friendly locals "assist" them. Al Nusra operate in that area.
This could get entertaining.....Putin accuses Turkey of supporting ISIS - yet the Russian jet was shot down in an area not controlled by ISIS......
Crickey, that them fighting words.
Edit: Did he says ISIS or as quoted by BBC, terrorists?
According to Russia Today (who I'd regard as reliable on the words of Putin, if not much else):
IS now not only receives revenue from the smuggling of oil, but also has the protection of a nation’s military, Putin said. This may explain why the terrorist group is so bold in taking acts of terrorism across the world,
''In other news, another capitalist pig-dog has made a reusable rocket that can reach space:''
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
I agree, on the face of it. I also wonder what other applications it will find in industry.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
What are Virgin Galactic up to these days?
Trying not to kill anyone else. I think that's one pilot and three employees killed so far, with no passengers flown. And I think they must be about ten years late.
This could get entertaining.....Putin accuses Turkey of supporting ISIS - yet the Russian jet was shot down in an area not controlled by ISIS......
Crickey, that them fighting words.
Edit: Did he says ISIS or as quoted by BBC, terrorists?
According to Russia Today (who I'd regard as reliable on the words of Putin, if not much else):
IS now not only receives revenue from the smuggling of oil, but also has the protection of a nation’s military, Putin said. This may explain why the terrorist group is so bold in taking acts of terrorism across the world,
Comments
http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/labour-nerves-build-about-oldham-west-and-royton-by-election/
I am sure they will win, but still, given Corbynism is supposedly sweeping the nation, talk that even getting the usual boat load of votes in this constituency isn't a great sign.
Miliband crashed the car. Corbyn's about to set fire to the wreck.
Hard to argue with too.
A notional 10k majority became 1k in 2010, and a 500 vote deficit to the Conservatives in 2015.
I think I need to go and lie down, however duty calls and so I am off. Not to the XIVth century today, but to May/June 1940. Chamberlain is out, the maverick Churchill is in but Halifax wants a different strategy - Chamberlain is still in the Cabinet and holds the key, with whom will he side? The cabinet papers await.
Thanks for some interesting conversation and play nicely, all.
Political identity is not what it was and while there may still be strongly anti-Tory and anti-Labour voters, no party can rely on that translating into natural positive support for them.
@JakeReesMogg: I see the former Mr Milliband is on #newsnight
I will put here what I put on the previous thread: I don't buy this latest fashionable guff that "standing up for what you believe in" is wonderful, regardless of what you believe in. History provides endless examples of people standing up for what they believe in and acting on those beliefs and causing nothing but chaos and pain and disaster.
It's what you believe in that matters. There is nothing admirable about standing up for repellent beliefs.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."
I agree with you and SO that we need a sensible centre left party. I wish there were one. I think it a real shame that there isn't one. I am baffled by your support for Corbyn. I can see why he appeals to those who voted for him but I think he has the wrong principles and will do nothing for Labour or those who want an alternative to the Tories.
If I had the time I would try and come up with what a sensible centre left party should be about, not because that is necessarily my natural home but precisely because it would be a challenge. But for the moment I have to work.
Also I suspect that with what's going on this site will temporarily morph back into Jane's Defence Weekly
It is in everyone's best interests for Corbyn to go, the Tories, Labour and the country.
I'm so glad I'm not a three quidder.
But if the consensus is only a 1k majority then MoE clearly goes into Labour loss territory.
28%;
60%.
The maitre d simply refuses to believe that people don't like sprouts. "They just haven't eaten enough of them yet", he replies, dismissively.
Elijah Magnier is a very clued up journalist.
Likely Russian response:
Kurds just got a very powerful sponsor, no more Turkish bombing raids over Syria and Iraq, will be shot down as soon as they cross the border.
Accelerated military action against Turkish proxies in Syria, no more talk of safe zones.
I would also guess an increased squeeze on Russian-Turkish trade. Russian tourism has gone, building contracts in Russia will at best not be renewed or initiated, Turkey is dependent on Russian and Iranian nat gas etc.
Robust but pragmatic.
Our response, forget about it Erdogan I should hope. Absolute lunatic.
For Tony Benn's former Representative On Earth's seat to go Kipper is beyond my imagination.
It wouldn't surprise me to hear there was a sweep stake for which PMQs Cameron will actually make him cry...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMi776jah1w
#BreakingNews: #SAA confirmed forces didn't recover the 2d #Russian pilot
Just saying.
It should be remembered that the Syrian Air Force also use SU-24 planes.
See @ILNewsFlash on Twitter for details.
If you missed it - this is a quite fascinating docu about the Tirpitz http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-dambusters-great-escape-secret-history/episode-guide
You could not move for Russians. Turkey's tourism industry is going to be clobbered.
https://twitter.com/theLemniscat/status/669125941898162177
I'll never forget his posting proof that in the Middle East Muslims were killing Christians by shoving crosses down their throats.
Turns out that picture was from a movie.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34909713
Or not quite. 100k is not space in my mind. It's only classed as such because it suited the Americans.
Bond's sabre design is far and away the cleverest and most promising for me. That air cooling system of his....F8ck me what an engineering feat.
Such cases are, however, rare.
But still, having a VTOL rocket reach 100K and land safely is also an amazing engineering feat. If only Carmack's Armadillo guys were still going ('though most have formed another team).
I know. That guy can cool air from 1000c to - 150c in 100th of a second. No condensation or icing, so he says.
FFS.
Just think of it .... A Corbyn class of trident Nuclear submarines.....
Edit- as always when lagging behind Reading threads you then see you have been beaten to it.
Royally.
Unless there is integrated ATC for all allies (incl. non NATO allies) attacking ISIS it could happen again too.
Discuss.
C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre, c'est de la folie
The picture being painted by the trial is less of criminal masterminds, as originally reported, more OAPs chancing their arm.
Brown = Lord Raglan
Capt Nolan. ??
(Cameron = Gen Scarlett?)
However, losing safe seats while a party's in government is one thing; losing them in opposition is a wholly different matter. I think - from a quick scan - that Labour's only lost ten in opposition since 1945:
Brighouse & Spenborough, 1960, to the Conservatives
Bristol SE, 1961, to the Conservatives (but only because Benn, who 'won' was disqualified)
Rochdale, 1972, to the Liberals
Lincoln, 1973, to Ind Lab (actually a Dick Taverne hold)
Glasgow Govan, 1973, to the SNP
Mitcham & Morden, 1982, to the Conservatives
Bermondsey, 1983, to the Liberals
Greenwich, 1987, the SDP
Glasgow Govan, 1988, to the SNP
Bradford West, 2012, to Respect
Edit: Did he says ISIS or as quoted by BBC, terrorists? Because as we know in Syria there are loads of different nutjob terrorist groups, and Turkeys hates the Kurds the most and there are plenty of these groups that are fighting them.
I linked to a new Vice film where they spent time with Al Nusra, who are an AQ affiliate.
my snp contacts unanimous in the view that mcgarry will be suspended by close of play tomorrow.
Sky Sources: Both pilots from the Russian warplane that was shot down by #Turkey over the Syrian border are dead
Let's face it Erdogan has been playing a multi-faced game since his accession to power.
And he has a strong hand. Turkey is a key country in the world strategically right now.
Ivan Watson @IvanCNN 11m11 minutes ago
Abu Ibrahim al-Sheghri, a rebel from 10th coastal brigade in Syria, tells CNN fighters machine gunned Russian pilots as they parachuted.
IS now not only receives revenue from the smuggling of oil, but also has the protection of a nation’s military, Putin said. This may explain why the terrorist group is so bold in taking acts of terrorism across the world,
https://www.rt.com/news/323240-russia-turkey-warplane-downed/
Edit - but the jet was shot down in an area not controlled by IS.....
http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/news-features/8/news-headlines/95312/ukip-offers-shakeup-challenge
It gets better though, just imagine, we could have Donald Trump as leader of the free world in 6 months time !
'Today's tragic events will have significant consequences'
'We will never tolerate such atrocities'