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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The good people of Oldham West could also be electing a fut

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The good people of Oldham West could also be electing a future LAB leader possibly the next one

One thing that’s puzzled me about the Oldham by-election is why the leader of Oldham council put himself forward as candidate. He’s already a big figure within the party and, indeed, was being widely tipped as a serious contender for the second biggest elected post in England after the Mayor of London.

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Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,736
    Questions To Which The Answer Is Hahaha
  • Second....like Labour in Oldham....
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,736
    In 1999, when I told my parents that Hilary Benn had won the Leeds Central by-election, they asked me whether she was Tony Benn's daughter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Off-topic:

    Yesterday I mentioned the suborbital rocket and landing by Bezos's firm Blue Origin. Below is the video of the take-off and landing.

    But the shape. Oh my. Never has the adage that rocketry is just compensation been so accurate ...

    "Daddy, what did you do today?"
    "I paid a few hundred thousand dollars to go into space son."
    "Wow!"
    "And here's a photo of the rocket."
    "But dad, how can I tell my friends you flew into space in a giant metal dildo?"



    Sorry for diverting the thread so soon. But on-topic: Jim McMahon may be Labour leader in the future, but not within the next five years. He'll need time to become known to the MPs and wider selectorate,
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,681
    Could we have a new thread on which of Ed Miliband's children should be Labour's next leader? Given the dearth of talent among current MPs and prospective candidates I think the milibabe' s time is now.
  • Northern Soul, hipster stubble. What more could a party want?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Quite amazing, the harm that was done in the later Blair, and especially the Brown, years.
  • “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    It looks like there might be a developing scandal about a Northampton Conservative MP and an undeclared donation from a developer.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Northern Soul, hipster stubble. What more could a party want?

    Northern Soul? He has gone up in my estimation. Needs a shave and a better suit though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....

    How many seconds / minutes / hours should armed Russian planes be allowed to overfly another country without permission?

    As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
  • It looks like there might be a developing scandal about a Northampton Conservative MP and an undeclared donation from a developer.

    Thats more like it!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-34911469

    We cant leave all the money scandals to the SNP!
  • Off-topic:

    Yesterday I mentioned the suborbital rocket and landing by Bezos's firm Blue Origin. Below is the video of the take-off and landing.

    But the shape. Oh my. Never has the adage that rocketry is just compensation been so accurate ...

    "Daddy, what did you do today?"
    "I paid a few hundred thousand dollars to go into space son."
    "Wow!"
    "And here's a photo of the rocket."
    "But dad, how can I tell my friends you flew into space in a giant metal dildo?"



    Sorry for diverting the thread so soon. But on-topic: Jim McMahon may be Labour leader in the future, but not within the next five years. He'll need time to become known to the MPs and wider selectorate,

    Reminds me of Blackadder: "exactly the same shape as a thingy."
  • “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....

    How many seconds / minutes / hours should armed Russian planes be allowed to overfly another country without permission?

    As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
    I'm not sure getting into 'who is the bigger hypocrite' will end well for Turkey - along with the Gulf states and Saudi they appear to be up to their necks in helping out ISIL - which is why Corbyn's question (lost among his flailing) of 'who is paying for ISIL? needs answering....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    Northern Soul, hipster stubble. What more could a party want?

    Northern Soul? He has gone up in my estimation. Needs a shave and a better suit though.
    You'd think on more than £80K a year he could afford both.
  • Sadly, Jim may have to sacrifice himself and his ambitions for the greater good of saving the Labour party from itself. He will always have this, though:

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....

    How many seconds / minutes / hours should armed Russian planes be allowed to overfly another country without permission?

    As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
    I'm not sure getting into 'who is the bigger hypocrite' will end well for Turkey - along with the Gulf states and Saudi they appear to be up to their necks in helping out ISIL - which is why Corbyn's question (lost among his flailing) of 'who is paying for ISIL? needs answering....
    That's a very good question, and one that has been answered on here many times in the last few weeks. Yokel gave a very good reply, as I recall. It sounds as though the answer might not be what you expect.

    Perhaps the Russians should answer exactly who they were bombing yesterday morning, and what connection those people had to do with ISIL ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Seven Day NHS

    bbc.co.uk/news/health-34915807

    Babies born at weekends more likely to die.
  • “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....

    How many seconds / minutes / hours should armed Russian planes be allowed to overfly another country without permission?

    As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
    I'm not sure getting into 'who is the bigger hypocrite' will end well for Turkey - along with the Gulf states and Saudi they appear to be up to their necks in helping out ISIL - which is why Corbyn's question (lost among his flailing) of 'who is paying for ISIL? needs answering....
    Perhaps the Russians should answer exactly who they were bombing yesterday morning, and what connection those people had to do with ISIL ...
    The Russians bomb anti-Assad forces.

    We, on the other hand, can tell the difference between 'terrorists' and 'freedom fighters'.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    It looks like there might be a developing scandal about a Northampton Conservative MP and an undeclared donation from a developer.

    Thats more like it!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-34911469

    We cant leave all the money scandals to the SNP!
    Thanks for the link - I just heard about it on the radio.

    So, deliberate or incompetence due to being a new MP and not knowing the system?

    Another reason why public bodies such as council should run a mile from financial dealings with football clubs.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....

    How many seconds / minutes / hours should armed Russian planes be allowed to overfly another country without permission?

    As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
    I'm not sure getting into 'who is the bigger hypocrite' will end well for Turkey - along with the Gulf states and Saudi they appear to be up to their necks in helping out ISIL - which is why Corbyn's question (lost among his flailing) of 'who is paying for ISIL? needs answering....
    Perhaps the Russians should answer exactly who they were bombing yesterday morning, and what connection those people had to do with ISIL ...
    The Russians bomb anti-Assad forces.

    We, on the other hand, can tell the difference between 'terrorists' and 'freedom fighters'.....
    By your admission, neither can Russia.
  • DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

  • "One thing that those who’ve observed him during this campaign have commented on is how able he is and what a good candidate LAB has. He’s personable, articulate and engaging. He’s also said to have a real presence and he’s still in his mid-30s."

    Interestingly, if you go back to the Beaconsfield by-election in the 80s exactly the same thing was being said about the Labour candidate then: Anthony Blair.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Rory Stewart.
  • “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....

    How many seconds / minutes / hours should armed Russian planes be allowed to overfly another country without permission?

    As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
    I'm not sure getting into 'who is the bigger hypocrite' will end well for Turkey - along with the Gulf states and Saudi they appear to be up to their necks in helping out ISIL - which is why Corbyn's question (lost among his flailing) of 'who is paying for ISIL? needs answering....
    Perhaps the Russians should answer exactly who they were bombing yesterday morning, and what connection those people had to do with ISIL ...
    The Russians bomb anti-Assad forces.

    We, on the other hand, can tell the difference between 'terrorists' and 'freedom fighters'.....
    By your admission, neither can Russia.
    The Russians arent trying to - Assad good, everyone else bad.

    We on the other hand are 'Assad bad, some of the rest bad, some of the rest ok'.

    The Russians position (not that I support it) has the benefit of clarity.....not a bad thing in a war....
  • DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    Which is also why JC cultivated Islington North (through the Unions) despite living in Hornsey.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Will McDonnell succeed in his campaign to unseat Stella Creasy? She may not even be in the next Parliament.

    But it does seem to be a problem with any party that is in government for a longish period of time that there is not enough promotion and development of the next generation. There is a risk that Cameron's aversion to reshuffles might aggravate that. It may also be aggravated by the increasing tendency of the leadership of political parties being relatively young themselves. Corbyn is of course an exception.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    “even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack.”

    Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
    Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......

    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....

    How many seconds / minutes / hours should armed Russian planes be allowed to overfly another country without permission?

    As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
    I'm not sure getting into 'who is the bigger hypocrite' will end well for Turkey - along with the Gulf states and Saudi they appear to be up to their necks in helping out ISIL - which is why Corbyn's question (lost among his flailing) of 'who is paying for ISIL? needs answering....
    Perhaps the Russians should answer exactly who they were bombing yesterday morning, and what connection those people had to do with ISIL ...
    The Russians bomb anti-Assad forces.

    We, on the other hand, can tell the difference between 'terrorists' and 'freedom fighters'.....
    By your admission, neither can Russia.
    The Russians arent trying to - Assad good, everyone else bad.

    We on the other hand are 'Assad bad, some of the rest bad, some of the rest ok'.

    The Russians position (not that I support it) has the benefit of clarity.....not a bad thing in a war....
    Unfortunately it is also against our interests. We need Russia to be targeting al Nusra, ISIS and associated groups. It seems they are more bothered with attacking people fighting ISIS.

    No side in this mess is 'ok' - not even the Kurds, who are probably the nearest to it from our POV.
  • DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    If it's close, I think Labour will be saved by their candidate. They seem to have picked a solid one, and so easily could have chosen an also-ran.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Will McDonnell succeed in his campaign to unseat Stella Creasy? She may not even be in the next Parliament.

    But it does seem to be a problem with any party that is in government for a longish period of time that there is not enough promotion and development of the next generation. There is a risk that Cameron's aversion to reshuffles might aggravate that. It may also be aggravated by the increasing tendency of the leadership of political parties being relatively young themselves. Corbyn is of course an exception.

    I imagine Creasy has a strong local base, but the determination of the hard left to destroy Labour should not be underestimated.

    These days, the nature of Parliamentary politics means that there are a lot more interesting and rewarding things to do elsewhere. Many talented people of all political persuasions clearly decide that it is a lot more interesting to pursue those career paths than to be whipped to within an inch of your life in the Commons.
  • DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Rory Stewart.
    Johnny Mercer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Will McDonnell succeed in his campaign to unseat Stella Creasy? She may not even be in the next Parliament.

    But it does seem to be a problem with any party that is in government for a longish period of time that there is not enough promotion and development of the next generation. There is a risk that Cameron's aversion to reshuffles might aggravate that. It may also be aggravated by the increasing tendency of the leadership of political parties being relatively young themselves. Corbyn is of course an exception.
    I don't understand the hard Left's distaste for Creasy. When it comes to gender identity politics she's as left-wing as they come.

    If that's not enough for economic statists, she also socked it to the pay-day loans companies. Her socialist credentials seem pretty good to me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    If it's close, I think Labour will be saved by their candidate. They seem to have picked a solid one, and so easily could have chosen an also-ran.
    And they are being sensible enough to keep Corbyn out of the road: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12014388/Wheres-Jeremy-Corbyn-Labour-leader-hardly-seen-in-Oldham-West-and-Royton-by-election.html

    Apparently he has only been there once (with all these Stop the War meetings to go to it must be difficult) and his picture has only been on one Labour leaflet in the campaign. Clearly McMahon is very far from stupid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Rory Stewart.
    Johnny Mercer.
    Yep. He's an interesting one as well.

    I was talking to a Labourite Corbyn supporter yesterday, and he expressed his contempt for our local MP, Heidi Allen. He said she might be the next Tory Thatcher. Which I thought odd, given her recent actions ...
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Any more polls due? UKIP must be wondering if a victory can be achieved. And, if it is, perhaps the donors will return and the membership revive.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867
    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.
  • DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View
    Is offering one name your way of agreeing with SO's "very few"?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    edited November 2015
    Security flaw found with Dell, which is what I'm using. Humbug:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649

    Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    Good morning, everyone.

    Any more polls due? UKIP must be wondering if a victory can be achieved. And, if it is, perhaps the donors will return and the membership revive.

    If they do win, they'll have done it with Farage having been virtually invisible as well. I can't remember the last time I saw him on TV.

    It's all the Corbyn and Cameron show, with a warm-up comedy act from Sturgeon and Davidson. Farage and Farron don't stand a chance.
  • DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Rory Stewart.
    Johnny Mercer.
    Yep. He's an interesting one as well.

    I was talking to a Labourite Corbyn supporter yesterday, and he expressed his contempt for our local MP, Heidi Allen. He said she might be the next Tory Thatcher. Which I thought odd, given her recent actions ...
    It seems that any female Tory MP who speaks her own mind is equated with the next Thatcher by some on the Labour benches.

    Why do they feel so threatened by women?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748

    "One thing that those who’ve observed him during this campaign have commented on is how able he is and what a good candidate LAB has. He’s personable, articulate and engaging. He’s also said to have a real presence and he’s still in his mid-30s."

    Interestingly, if you go back to the Beaconsfield by-election in the 80s exactly the same thing was being said about the Labour candidate then: Anthony Blair.

    He lost that by election though even if it was in the Foot years, the last time Labour had a leader as bad as Corbyn and in a safe Tory seat
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867

    Security flaw found with Dell, which is what I'm using. Humbug:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649

    Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.

    Ah, fair enough. I have only been reading a few sources online.
  • My rule of thumb is the better the commentariat deem the candidate of the incumbent party at a by-election, the worse the result for them.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244

    Security flaw found with Dell, which is what I'm using. Humbug:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649

    Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.

    If I understand it correctly, the problem only arises with new machines that were shipped with the certificate. If it's an old machine that you upgraded to Win7 I believe you are OK.

    In any case, you should be able to remove the offending certificate if it is somehow installed
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    From the maps, it looks as though it had entered earlier in the flight as well during a long loop. If the maps are right ...

    "Do not enter Turkish airspace."
    "Do not enter Turkish airspace."
    "Leave Turkish airspace"
    "Leave Turkish airspace"
    "Do not re-enter Turkish airspace."
    "Do not re-enter Turkish airspace."
    Bang.

    Per'aps.
  • Mr. P, cheers. Does sound like, once again, my archaic approach to technology has saved the day :p
  • RobD said:

    Security flaw found with Dell, which is what I'm using. Humbug:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649

    Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.

    Ah, fair enough. I have only been reading a few sources online.
    And I suppose you tell your next door neighbours when they're "too near" your property, too...

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867

    RobD said:

    Security flaw found with Dell, which is what I'm using. Humbug:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649

    Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.

    Ah, fair enough. I have only been reading a few sources online.
    And I suppose you tell your next door neighbours when they're "too near" your property, too...

    Hm?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Security flaw found with Dell, which is what I'm using. Humbug:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649

    Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.

    Ah, fair enough. I have only been reading a few sources online.
    And I suppose you tell your next door neighbours when they're "too near" your property, too...

    Hm?
    Well, if a Russian plane is in Russian airspace, it's where it ought to be, isn't it?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Security flaw found with Dell, which is what I'm using. Humbug:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649

    Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.

    Ah, fair enough. I have only been reading a few sources online.
    And I suppose you tell your next door neighbours when they're "too near" your property, too...

    Hm?
    Well, if a Russian plane is in Russian airspace, it's where it ought to be, isn't it?

    You've lost me, I'm afraid (blame my tiredness!)
  • My rule of thumb is the better the commentariat deem the candidate of the incumbent party at a by-election, the worse the result for them.

    That seems a bit counter intuitive.
  • Russia may well arm the Kurds now I suppose. See how Erdogan enjoys a kitted up to the teeth revolution. I am not recommending the course but I can see the temptation.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm getting very confused - I thought Turkish rebels had shot them dead then stuck it on YouTube. Sky saying one of them is on his way back to Russia alive?!?
    RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Wasn't she a fit-up by Rosie Winterton to smuggle a moderate into Corbyn's Politburo?

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Rory Stewart.
    Johnny Mercer.
    Yep. He's an interesting one as well.

    I was talking to a Labourite Corbyn supporter yesterday, and he expressed his contempt for our local MP, Heidi Allen. He said she might be the next Tory Thatcher. Which I thought odd, given her recent actions ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    I thought this airspace thing was very well explained yesterday morning by the self proclaimed 5 mile extension of Turkish airspace over Syria.

    Much more to the point is that the Turks do not want the Russians bombing Turkmen who are very likely to end up in Turkey as yet another wave of refugees. Many are there already.
  • My rule of thumb is the better the commentariat deem the candidate of the incumbent party at a by-election, the worse the result for them.

    That seems a bit counter intuitive.
    I imagine it's due to overcompensation. Sort of like describing an unattractive individual as having a great personality.
  • Alex Salmond: United Ireland is as inevitable as an independent Scotland

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/alex-salmond-united-ireland-is-as-inevitable-as-an-independent-scotland

    Not very?
  • RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    It would also appear that the Turkish plane/s that shot the Russian jet down violated Syrian airspace to do so.
  • RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    It would also appear that the Turkish plane/s that shot the Russian jet down violated Syrian airspace to do so.
    The Turks are the Good Guys, the Russians the Baddies. Always were, always will be.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,853

    DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    I actually disagree. I think there are a fair few Labour MPs with talent. The problem is that most of them have no chance of advancement under the current regime because they are in the centre or on the right of the party - Stella Creasy, Gloria del Piero, Wes Streeting, John Woodcock, Dan Jarvis. By contrast, I am struggling to think of any great talent in the Tory ranks beyond the established Cameron, Osborne and Gove. The Tories have a lot of safe hands - Hammond, Fallon, May etc - but very few interesting newcomers.

    Rory Stewart.
    Johnny Mercer.
    Yep. He's an interesting one as well.

    I was talking to a Labourite Corbyn supporter yesterday, and he expressed his contempt for our local MP, Heidi Allen. He said she might be the next Tory Thatcher. Which I thought odd, given her recent actions ...
    It seems that any female Tory MP who speaks her own mind is equated with the next Thatcher by some on the Labour benches.

    Why do they feel so threatened by women?
    Past experience :-) ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    The Russians are the bad guys, the terrorists that found them are the mad guys.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    Russia may well arm the Kurds now I suppose. See how Erdogan enjoys a kitted up to the teeth revolution. I am not recommending the course but I can see the temptation.

    Then the Kurds would fight Assad's forces using those arms.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,575
    the PPC for Labour needs a good shave !
  • RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    It would also appear that the Turkish plane/s that shot the Russian jet down violated Syrian airspace to do so.
    The Turks are the Good Guys, the Russians the Baddies. Always were, always will be.

    WWI?
  • Russia may well arm the Kurds now I suppose. See how Erdogan enjoys a kitted up to the teeth revolution. I am not recommending the course but I can see the temptation.

    Then the Kurds would fight Assad's forces using those arms.
    Or Turkey might unsportingly arm some of the many million ethnic Turks in Russia. The idea is idiotic.
  • On topic, it's a decent shout by Mike.

    If McMahon wins then he could be well placed in five years' time to benefit from a backlash against Corbynism: on the right side of the political spectrum, newish to parliament but no longer a complete rookie, a decent track record before entering the Commons and with the energy of the still relatively young.

    However, before he gets there, he, and events, have at least five hurdles to clear:

    - Firstly, of course, he needs to win the election in Oldham. That's still just about probable but is by no means assured. If he loses, he's highly unlikely to get another shot at a by-election and he'll be far too late to be next leader if he waits until 2020 (and his career may have taken a different path by then anyway - the Manchester mayorality may again look an option though that also depends on Tony Lloyd's plans).

    - Secondly, Corbyn needs to survive until 2020. If he goes before then, it'll be the likes of Benn or Cooper - experienced old hands - that'll be required to pick up the pieces. A new broom like McMahon would be too much of a gamble for what would have to be a party in crisis at that point. Clegg was elected after less in 2007 but the Lib Dems were not angling for government at that point. Labour has to play it safer and the key thin-pope-fat-pope principle in this case would be experience.

    - Thirdly, Labour has to lose in 2020. If, somehow, Corbyn wins then his successor will almost certainly follow from the left; all their convictions would have been validated by the victory, as well as the left having no doubt gained even more structural control through internal reform.

    - Fourthly, he has to hold his seat in 2020. This might sound obvious and OW&R might look safe from 2015 but there are various points to bear in mind, not least that he won't contest OW&R in 2020 as (I think) the seat's likely to be too small under boundary reforms, even if there aren't knock-on effects from neighbouring changes, which is highly likely. Add to that the risks of a full-on UKIP surge or a breakaway SDP2 and the chances, while still substantial, erode that little more.

    - And finally, he has to win the leadership election, assuming he stands at all. There, there are plenty more subsidiary variables, from his own prominence (not all that important given the ability of Corbyn, EdM and Cameron to make their cases during the campaign), to who his rivals are, to what he's done in parliament in between.

    You can see the pieces fitting together but all in all, I wouldn't be looking at less than 100/1.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,383
    edited November 2015
    Carlotta

    "The Russians bomb anti-Assad forces.

    We, on the other hand, can tell the difference between 'terrorists' and 'freedom fighters'..... "

    It is becoming very difficult to find anyone making a coherent argument for America's 'good jihadists'. More so now that we have seen the handy work of these 'good guys' shooting a parachutist followed by bazookering a rescue hellicopter.

    Time to recalibrate our moral compass I think and keep the Turks as far aay from us as possible
  • Russia may well arm the Kurds now I suppose. See how Erdogan enjoys a kitted up to the teeth revolution. I am not recommending the course but I can see the temptation.

    Then the Kurds would fight Assad's forces using those arms.
    The Kurds aren't fighting Assad, they're fighting on his side.

  • RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    It would also appear that the Turkish plane/s that shot the Russian jet down violated Syrian airspace to do so.
    The Turks are the Good Guys, the Russians the Baddies. Always were, always will be.

    WWI?
    Slight confusion there. Mea culpa.

  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    edited November 2015
    RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-did-turkey-attack-a-russian-plane/
    I wouldn't even believe that claim, clear premeditated ambush that was ordered at the highest level. Seems to be beyond the wit of our government to criticise Turkey despite their flooding of Europe with refugees, support for Islamic State etc. Whose payroll are they on, isn't it supposed to be ours?
    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    Good news is the other pilot was rescued by Russian special forces and the SAA.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    edited November 2015
    Doubt he'll be the NEXT leader - I currently have Benn and Nandy backed.

    Oh and International Rescue but that's probably a tenner to Shadsy's christmas fund.

    I am laying Dan Jarvis.
  • RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    It would also appear that the Turkish plane/s that shot the Russian jet down violated Syrian airspace to do so.
    The Turks are the Good Guys, the Russians the Baddies. Always were, always will be.

    WWI?
    Slight confusion there. Mea culpa.

    Comment would be superfluous.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Alex Salmond: United Ireland is as inevitable as an independent Scotland'

    Very revealing of the mindset...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Today shows Labour's problems. A (possibly minor, possibly major) financial scandal involving a Tory MP has broken, and there is another scandal pointing towards senior Conservative figures that involves affairs, bullying and a suicide.

    Yet there seems to be more discussion of Corbyn and events in Syria.

    A few years ago this bog would have been filled with Labourites attacking these stories, and with some justification. The media would have been following their lead.

    Labour should really be making more of these problems for the Conservatives. Even Syria has opportunities for them, but Corbyn is largely kyboshed by his own views, which do not give him room to manoeuvre.

    Leaving aside the damage he is doing to the party's electoral chances; Corbyn's biggest legacy might be having given the government a free-ish ride.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,888

    Good morning, everyone.

    Any more polls due? UKIP must be wondering if a victory can be achieved. And, if it is, perhaps the donors will return and the membership revive.

    If they do win, they'll have done it with Farage having been virtually invisible as well. I can't remember the last time I saw him on TV.

    It's all the Corbyn and Cameron show, with a warm-up comedy act from Sturgeon and Davidson. Farage and Farron don't stand a chance.
    If UKIP win, it will be because the voters madeit a referendum on Corbyn.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    I'm getting very confused - I thought Turkish rebels had shot them dead then stuck it on YouTube. Sky saying one of them is on his way back to Russia alive?!?

    RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    It’s nearly as difficult to work out what happened as it is to sort out who is fighting who in Syria. As fas as I can see it’s at least a five sided war, although, as with 1984 alliances and enemies change frquently.

    You can’t blame anyone for the getting the hell out of the place. At least no-one’s shooting in Macedonia!
  • Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Any more polls due? UKIP must be wondering if a victory can be achieved. And, if it is, perhaps the donors will return and the membership revive.

    If they do win, they'll have done it with Farage having been virtually invisible as well. I can't remember the last time I saw him on TV.

    It's all the Corbyn and Cameron show, with a warm-up comedy act from Sturgeon and Davidson. Farage and Farron don't stand a chance.
    If UKIP win, it will be because the voters madeit a referendum on Corbyn.
    There's just no way UKIP will win and it's not worth the hope.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,676
    Stomach-churning piece on climate change on R4, interviewing India's energy minister.

    The R4 correspondent is aggressively criticising India's policy to, um, bring hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

    Bleeuuuurrrgh.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Any more polls due? UKIP must be wondering if a victory can be achieved. And, if it is, perhaps the donors will return and the membership revive.

    If they do win, they'll have done it with Farage having been virtually invisible as well. I can't remember the last time I saw him on TV.

    It's all the Corbyn and Cameron show, with a warm-up comedy act from Sturgeon and Davidson. Farage and Farron don't stand a chance.
    If UKIP win, it will be because the voters madeit a referendum on Corbyn.
    There's just no way UKIP will win and it's not worth the hope.

    I'm on UKIP at quite long odds. If turnout is as low as I think it will be (sub 30%), then I reckon they are in with a good shout.
  • Mr. Topping, presumably because of burning coal/oil/gas to provide millions of people with heat and electricity?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    LondonBob said:

    RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-did-turkey-attack-a-russian-plane/
    I wouldn't even believe that claim, clear premeditated ambush that was ordered at the highest level. Seems to be beyond the wit of our government to criticise Turkey despite their flooding of Europe with refugees, support for Islamic State etc. Whose payroll are they on, isn't it supposed to be ours?
    https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/

    Good news is the other pilot was rescued by Russian special forces and the SAA.
    So Turkey forced the Russian pilots over the border?

    This was only premeditated in the fact it was bound to happen. Russia had apologised for violating Turkish airspace in the past, yet appear to have done little to stop it happening again. They knew that Turkey had shot down two Syrian planes for doing the same thing.

    If you want to look for premeditation in this, you might want to look towards Russia as well as Turkey. Either they wanted this to happen, or their pilots were incompetent fools.

    As for Turkey's 'flooding of Europe with refugees': you do know what Turkey's been doing for four years to house about two million refugees? If they really wanted to 'flood' the EU, they'd have done a much better job of it before now.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411

    Alex Salmond: United Ireland is as inevitable as an independent Scotland

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/alex-salmond-united-ireland-is-as-inevitable-as-an-independent-scotland

    Not very?

    About as inevitable as Alex Salmond being treated for anorexia.

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I think Mike underestimates the ego of politicians, McMahon is unknown outside of Oldham, this gives him a national profile.

    In other news Osborne is taking no calls, he's stuck in a meeting with Peter and Paul
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,601
    An apparently trivial piece with some quite thought-provoking passsages:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/25/austerity-tory-milibandism-labour-capitalism
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,676
    On some kind of topic, what price (ans: 18/1) Ruthie as next Cons leader?

    I have had a nibble.

    Or is there a funny scottish thing going on which would disqualify her?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,676

    Mr. Topping, presumably because of burning coal/oil/gas to provide millions of people with heat and electricity?

    Yes. They have the temerity to want to follow the West in so doing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,676
    Just hearing about a huge affordable housing programme to be announced by GO.

    Is that tim dancing a jig I can see in the distance?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,964

    An apparently trivial piece with some quite thought-provoking passsages:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/25/austerity-tory-milibandism-labour-capitalism

    "Smart Tories know they had a lucky escape in May."

    Not sure there was much luck involved other than the stupidity of Labour installing Miliband.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,964
    edited November 2015
    TOPPING said:

    On some kind of topic, what price (ans: 18/1) Ruthie as next Cons leader?

    I have had a nibble.

    Or is there a funny scottish thing going on which would disqualify her?

    Not being a MP might be a small factor..
  • DavidL said:

    Mike is right that the stunning lack of talent in the PLP, painfully exposed by the last leadership election, means that there are real opportunities for newcomers with ability to be fast tracked to the top. Whether Mr McMahon is that person is harder to say. The jump from the regional to the national stage is a big one.

    But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.

    A step which was subsequently undone by the Boundary Commission.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986
    TOPPING said:

    Just hearing about a huge affordable housing programme to be announced by GO.

    Is that tim dancing a jig I can see in the distance?

    Well let's see

    Osborne announcing something and it actually happening are two different things.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,676
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    On some kind of topic, what price (ans: 18/1) Ruthie as next Cons leader?

    I have had a nibble.

    Or is there a funny scottish thing going on which would disqualify her?

    Not being a MP might be a small factor..
    hahaha oh yes.

    Details, details...!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,676

    TOPPING said:

    Just hearing about a huge affordable housing programme to be announced by GO.

    Is that tim dancing a jig I can see in the distance?

    Well let's see

    Osborne announcing something and it actually happening are two different things.
    Well it is to buy rather than social housing and there is certainly a huge need for social housing but let's see what he says.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,964
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    On some kind of topic, what price (ans: 18/1) Ruthie as next Cons leader?

    I have had a nibble.

    Or is there a funny scottish thing going on which would disqualify her?

    Not being a MP might be a small factor..
    hahaha oh yes.

    Details, details...!
    Not to say she wouldnt go for say Zak's seat when he becomes mayor...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,986
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just hearing about a huge affordable housing programme to be announced by GO.

    Is that tim dancing a jig I can see in the distance?

    Well let's see

    Osborne announcing something and it actually happening are two different things.
    Well it is to buy rather than social housing and there is certainly a huge need for social housing but let's see what he says.
    If he was that concerned he could have done it in the last Parliament or do we have the standard excuse the LDs blocked it ?
  • TOPPING said:

    Just hearing about a huge affordable housing programme to be announced by GO.

    Is that tim dancing a jig I can see in the distance?

    Depends whether GO is using this to solve the housing crisis, as a Keynesian stimulus, or to further inflate the housing bubble fuelling the expansion of domestic credit that is keeping the economy afloat.
  • RobD said:

    So yesterday we were told the plane was warned ten times in 5 minutes to leave Turkey's airspace, but now apparently the plane was only in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. I suppose they could have been warning while approaching it, but still that is not what the earlier reports said.

    It would also appear that the Turkish plane/s that shot the Russian jet down violated Syrian airspace to do so.
    The Turks are the Good Guys, the Russians the Baddies. Always were, always will be.

    WWI?
    Slight confusion there. Mea culpa.

    To call WWI a slight confusion is something of an understatement.
This discussion has been closed.