Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Bet

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Betfair “Next PM” chances

Today’s the chancellor’s autumn statement – the second big set piece of Mr. Osborne’s parliamentary year. Usually, the “Omnishambles” budget of 2012 apart, he gets a good initial reaction and the betting markets respond accordingly.

Read the full story here


«134567

Comments

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    I will take this opportunity to delurk.

    This piece seems like good advice. The commentariat seems to have been stuck in Osborne-is-hopelessly-trapped mode for weeks (perhaps the result of good expectations management behind the scenes). It seems a near certainty that he'll pull some kind of rabbit out of the hat today and, while it may not stand up well in the long term, it will play well for 48 hours.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    First post first. Well done and welcome Mr Wanderer!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Welcome Wanderer. Yes, it's a bit like a football team - one minute Osborne's a genius the next he's an idiot.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/24/bankers-still-overpaid-says-top-banker-john-cryan-bonuses-deutsche-bank

    I should declare an interest. I know and have worked with him and regard him highly. He's right of course. A culture of entitlement exists within highly paid bankers just as much as it does among some on welfare. They are both equally pernicious and need dealing with.

    Over to you George.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    On topic, good strategy from Mike. As well as Osborne being close to evens for next PM after the last budget, Boris was also close to Evens in the days after the election. Both laid - for a reasonable sum in the case of the former, and a large sum in the case of the latter.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212
    Oh and hello to Mr Wanderer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    Greetings Mr Wanderer
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Shit news to start PMQs
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,888
    Did Tim Yeo have any sort of reputation that it was possible to trash?
  • Sandpit said:

    Shit news to start PMQs

    What was that?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    Sandpit said:

    Shit news to start PMQs

    What was that?
    The passing away from cancer of Chris Martin, PPS at No. 10. He was I think aged 42.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Welcome and you bagged 1st!

    *impressed face*
    Wanderer said:

    I will take this opportunity to delurk.

    This piece seems like good advice. The commentariat seems to have been stuck in Osborne-is-hopelessly-trapped mode for weeks (perhaps the result of good expectations management behind the scenes). It seems a near certainty that he'll pull some kind of rabbit out of the hat today and, while it may not stand up well in the long term, it will play well for 48 hours.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jezza going on green energy...
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Sandpit said:

    First post first. Well done and welcome Mr Wanderer!

    Thanks - and also to everyone else for their welcomes.

    Beginner's luck with the first post.
  • Jezza going on green energy...

    Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?
  • Green issues?

    With the ISIS issues and Middle East tension; on the day of the Autumn Statement, he goes with green issues?
  • This is so funny:

    Kate McCann ‏@KateEMcCann 12m12 minutes ago
    John McDonnell has decided he doesn't want to live in Number 11 when he becomes chancellor... ahem: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12015911/John-McDonnell-wouldnt-live-in-Number-11-if-he-was-
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Three apprentices - one called Ziggy. Seriously.

    Jezza going on green energy...

    Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    Green issues?

    With the ISIS issues and Middle East tension; on the day of the Autumn Statement, he goes with green issues?

    Da New Politics, innit?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This isn't even PMQs on Easy.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Corbyn wittering on about solar power communes on Hackney Council Estates. He's a caricature.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    @DPJHodges: For the first and last time Jeremy Corbyn speaks on behalf of israel.

    @JournoStephen: "Prime Minister, I have a question from Ziggy, Occupied Palestine, and Jay." #PMQs
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Cameron even quished Jezza on womens refuges.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    Three apprentices - one called Ziggy. Seriously.

    Jezza going on green energy...

    Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?
    Was he an apprentice guitar player?

  • PMQs so easy for Cameron. Green energy not exactly the word on everyone's lips at the moment.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Occupied Palestine? Brilliant.
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: For the first and last time Jeremy Corbyn speaks on behalf of israel.

    @JournoStephen: "Prime Minister, I have a question from Ziggy, Occupied Palestine, and Jay." #PMQs

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Did Corbyn use all 6 or is he popping back?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2015
    Corbyn - standing up for shareholders' dividends taken from taxes.
    Shareholders will receive interest payments on their investment, at approximately 4% per year.

    The project income will be derived principally from the government’s Feed-in Tariff scheme, and the sale of the energy.
    http://www.hackneyenergy.org.uk/banister-house/
  • Somebody calling themselves Ziggy, nailed on dreadlocked greeny squatter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    edited November 2015
    On topic - This is sound advice.

    But then again I've backed Osbo at around 2.74, and he's drifted.

    He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.

    Osbo: Buy @ 5-2 or longer
    Hold @ 6-4 -> 5-2
    Sell @ 5-4 or shorter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Robertson from the SNP going on Syria. Grown-up questions compared to Corbyn.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Jezza going on green energy...

    Has Margaret from Margate requested he asked about it?
    Dair from Dundee has a question about HMS Ocean and the Carriers.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pulpstar said:


    He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.

    I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2015
    So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.

    Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?

    Oops, here comes Hampstead.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244

    Was he an apprentice guitar player?

    @GeneralBoles: are spiders from Mars included in the government's immigration cap?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tulip's question is far too long. Another one who needs brevity training - she lost me.
    chestnut said:

    So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.

    Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?

    Oops, here comes Hampstead.

  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    chestnut said:

    So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.

    Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?

    Oops, here comes Hampstead.

    Corbyn never leaves his comfort zone.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited November 2015
    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.

    Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?

    Oops, here comes Hampstead.

    Corbyn never leaves his comfort zone.
    Well that is about the only place "Corbynism" is popular.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Welcome, Wanderer.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 876
    are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell tory sleeper agents? Since May its been one big tory wet dream!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Given the pathetic nature of PMQs from Corbyn, I can only presume he doesn't care right now. McDonnell is going to be entertaining - assume he's going to at least attempt to put his case today.
    kjohnw said:

    are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell tory sleeper agents? Since May its been one big tory wet dream!

  • Somebody calling themselves Ziggy, nailed on dreadlocked greeny squatter.

    It appears not. At least, not the dreadlocks:

  • Wanderer said:

    Pulpstar said:


    He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.

    I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)
    The way Osborne is trampling over his fellow cabinet members by grabbing all their good news announcements, IMHO Osborne will struggle to get into the final two. How to lose friends and influence people.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Here comes George!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    @IanDunt: Security, security, security
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Who had 'security' on the bingo?
  • OGH betting strategy very smart. I disagree with one conclusion though. "One thing about Osborne is that he learns from past mistakes. There’ve been no more 2012-type budgets."
    Osborne's post GE budget has a number of howlers which have backfired. Tax Credits is one and some of the BTL changes is a hidden one. We will see how much of those mistakes he tackles today.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tom Harris' 2p http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12015904/Jeremy-Corbyns-shadow-chancellor-is-cosying-up-to-Trots-who-hate-Labour.html
    It will be a busy day for the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, in the Commons this afternoon and later in the TV and radio studios.

    Except that’s not where McDonnell will be this evening. He won’t be telling wavering voters about his party’s opposition to cuts or trying to persuade them of his personal commitment to balancing the budget while defending public services.

    Instead John McDonnell will be sharing a platform with Labour’s opponents – not to debate with them, but to show solidarity with them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    He's got Lloyds pending
    Sandpit said:

    Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?

  • Sandpit said:

    Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?

    Debt or deficit? Even deficit, how the hell is he going to achieve that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    Did Corbyn ask a question from "Tim in Suffolk" over Green energy ?
  • Intrigued by PMQs – what exactly was the ‘tulip question’ appertaining to…!


    And a hearty welcome to Mr Wanderer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    He's got Lloyds pending

    Sandpit said:

    Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?

    Apply for £1000 of that if you haven't already done so imo.
  • Wanderer said:

    Pulpstar said:


    He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.

    I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)
    The way Osborne is trampling over his fellow cabinet members by grabbing all their good news announcements, IMHO Osborne will struggle to get into the final two. How to lose friends and influence people.
    Like Brown did?
  • ReallyEvilMuffinReallyEvilMuffin Posts: 65
    edited November 2015
    Ironically this study almost PROVES there is no weekend effect. Paediatrics and Obstetrics run a fully staffed weekend rota. There is a consultant ward round daily and the same cover as if it were a weekday. The only difference is there are no elective caesarians (the lower risk procedures obviously) or planned clinics. But shop floor labour ward staffing is equivilent, as is SCBU level care.

    Also this 250k figure is banded around, but you do realise that actually is the all in cost of training? That is not minused the tuition fees people pay, and includes living costs and lost production costs that are bourne by the individual through the SLC.

    Actual to staffing a job cost to taxpayer is at the level of 150k. However this does not reflect work that these people do on wards whilst students. After this each year they work for the NHS they are a net benefit to the taxpayer. You are right in that it would be unfair to other students that don't have any obligations - nursing/OT/physio students pay no fees and get a bursary for living expenses for example.

    Figures as of 2012. https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=http://bma.org.uk/-/media/Files/Word%20files/News%20views%20analysis/pressbriefing_cost_of_training_doctors.docx
    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    watford30 said:

    'Envy of the World', but not at weekends.

    A fully staffed 7 day NHS would be lovely.

    I do not think you can achieve a fully staffed 7 day NHS on the cheap.
    We're pouring money in by the bucket load. Even Gordon Brown said they'd had enough.

    There are plenty of places where the NHS can find cost savings. Decent management could implement them.
    Cull management numbers. Stop staff retiring at 50 on frankly over generous pension terms, and don't rehire those that have left at ridiculous rates. And lock Doctors into working for the training they've received. If they want to bugger off for more cash elsewhere, they should be required to compensate the taxpayer.
    This thing about medical students needing to repay their training (and the vast majority will work for the NHS in any case) -- does it also apply to other students? Should TSE and Antifrank be required to do a couple of years at the local CAB? Should geography and history graduates have to work as schoolteachers for a stretch?
    Have TSE and Antifrank received £250,000 worth of training paid for by the taxpayer?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    "That growth has not been fuelled by an irresponsible banking boom, he says." - from the Guardian.

    No, it's been fuelled by an irresponsible housing bubble!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    tlg86 said:

    "That growth has not been fuelled by an irresponsible banking boom, he says." - from the Guardian.

    No, it's been fuelled by an irresponsible housing bubble!

    Houses and banks are very much linked I think !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    edited November 2015

    Sandpit said:

    Total debt to fall this year - large asset disposals coming..?

    Debt or deficit? Even deficit, how the hell is he going to achieve that?
    He definitely said debt. I guess the bank bailout cash liability is counted there, along with assets like Lloyds and possibly Railtrack, maybe even some undoing of QE.

    Edit: looks like he is talking about debt/GDP ratio, which strikes me as a bit of a fudge.
  • Clive Lewis losing his head....
  • Clive Lewis losing his head....

    Could you make out what he was shouting about?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    "That growth has not been fuelled by an irresponsible banking boom, he says." - from the Guardian.

    No, it's been fuelled by an irresponsible housing bubble!

    Houses and banks are very much linked I think !
    True. H2B is a pre-emptive bank bailout.
  • Clive Lewis losing his head....

    That is the man the BBC viewed as lacking political knowledge of his own area?
  • Clive Lewis losing his head....

    That is the man the BBC viewed as lacking political knowledge of his own area?
    But he claims twas the BBC is racist innit.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It was something something female kids, something something mothers being erased, something something I'm pregnant with a daughter, something something.

    I've no idea - Cameron gave a non answer that sounded nice, I'm not sure if he understood her either.

    Intrigued by PMQs – what exactly was the ‘tulip question’ appertaining to…!


    And a hearty welcome to Mr Wanderer.

  • Osbourne kills his own tax credits :)
  • Wanderer said:

    Pulpstar said:


    He will remain a serious player for the leadership and is more likely than not to be in the final two I think.

    I think he's almost certain to be in the final two, unless he decides not to stand. There's also the question of whether he'd be able to influence who was in the final two with him. (Though if it was between May and Boris, who would he see as most dangerous?)
    The way Osborne is trampling over his fellow cabinet members by grabbing all their good news announcements, IMHO Osborne will struggle to get into the final two. How to lose friends and influence people.
    Like Brown did?
    Osborne is even worse, since Blair at least did take some credit with the ministers and had people that he promoted and nurtured whereas Cameron seems to leave it all to Osborne.
  • BOOOOOOM labours fox shot.
  • Clive Lewis losing his head....

    Could you make out what he was shouting about?
    I'm not sure he knows...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    BOOOOOOM labours fox shot.

    Fill us in.
  • U turn if you want to...
  • When eating humble pie, it's best to do so early. Still humiliating for George Osborne though.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    HB capped?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Wrong call on tax credits. Pretty much cancels the Budget changes except the disregard which drops to 2,500.
  • When eating humble pie, it's best to do so early. Still humiliating for George Osborne though.

    A U-Turn is always humiliating, no matter how you dress it up
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2015

    Ironically this study almost PROVES there is no weekend effect. Paediatrics and Obstetrics run a fully staffed weekend rota. There is a consultant ward round daily and the same cover as if it were a weekday. The only difference is there are no elective caesarians (the lower risk procedures obviously) or planned clinics. But shop floor labour ward staffing is equivilent, as is SCBU level care.
    ....



    Are you sure? What about all the key support staff in the areas of tests, scans etc and monitoring? Also what about the time to get through A&E for women admitted and assessed?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    Osbourne kills his own tax credits :)

    Brown introduced tax credits ?

    How is Osborne killing "his own" ?
  • I disagree with George. I think we should (slowly) wean ourselves off tax credits whilst there is political cover to do so. So I still think there should be some cuts to it.

    A bigger budget surplus helps with shocks and to pay down our debt.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,964
    Sandpit said:

    Wrong call on tax credits. Pretty much cancels the Budget changes except the disregard which drops to 2,500.

    Its just delayed - universal credit will kill it eventually anyway.
  • Where is IDS's "celebration"?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Digital tax accounts by 2020, good luck with that project!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I didn't really catch it - here's the DT
    "This improvement in the nation's finances allows the Chancellor to do the following:

    - Eliminate the deficit further

    - We will spend £12bn more on capital investments

    - The improved public finances allow us to reach the same goal as a surplus in the early years. That means we can help on tax credits."

    Tax credits are being phased out anyway so we can roll out universal credit, adds MR Osborne.
    Pulpstar said:

    Osbourne kills his own tax credits :)

    Brown introduced tax credits ?

    How is Osborne killing "his own" ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    @PCollinsTimes: He could get away with taking all the tax credit money and spending it himself, on cigars. https://t.co/m14CQkPbG5
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    He should certainly be cutting tax credits. There's lots of popular mileage with above average size families.
  • A tax credit U-turn. Whoever would have thought it? Nothing to do with Labour, of course, and everything to do with GO's ambitions to succeed Dave.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wrong call on tax credits. Pretty much cancels the Budget changes except the disregard which drops to 2,500.

    Its just delayed - universal credit will kill it eventually anyway.
    Yes, but it looks like a big fat u-turn, which burns political capital without the cash gain from the policy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,594
    So the Lords are hugely undemocratic and against the will of the people but we are totally doing what they say anyways?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Who's on George's left in the Chamber?
  • Pretty clear Osbourne never intended to carry the tax credit cut through. Master tactician
  • Scott_P said:

    @PCollinsTimes: He could get away with taking all the tax credit money and spending it himself, on cigars. https://t.co/m14CQkPbG5

    Not if he wants to succeed Dave. That's what the U-turn is all about.

  • ReallyEvilMuffinReallyEvilMuffin Posts: 65
    edited November 2015
    OBGYN perform their own ultrasound scans in urgent cases or get the radiologist to do so. Truly emergency CT scans are easier to get on the weekend as there are not routine lists although obstetric CTs are very infrequent. Without routine bloods coming through from GP surgeries there is little difference between result times at the weekend, and it is easier to phone the chap there if you want something ASAP. But obstetrics does not really rely on many of these modalities for baby outcomes - it is all on the CTG which is constantly outputting. If you are waiting for xyz then you have waited too long.

    A/E is bypassed and things move straight to labour ward for deliveries if they feel labour is oncoming.

    Ironically this study almost PROVES there is no weekend effect. Paediatrics and Obstetrics run a fully staffed weekend rota. There is a consultant ward round daily and the same cover as if it were a weekday. The only difference is there are no elective caesarians (the lower risk procedures obviously) or planned clinics. But shop floor labour ward staffing is equivilent, as is SCBU level care.
    ....



    Are you sure? What about all the key support staff in the areas of tests, scans etc and monitoring? Also what about the time to get through A&E for women admitted and assessed?
  • Who's on George's left in the Chamber?

    Greg Hands
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    :lol: I wondered what that was about.
    This from our sketch writer Michael Deacon:

    John McDonnell, Labour's shadow chancellor, said he would "throw up" if George Osborne used the phrase "fixing the roof while the sun in shining". Osborne has duly, and rather gleefully, put this to the test. It's probably for the best that Mr McDonnell reneged on his promise. Tory MPs point at him and laugh.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/autumn-statement/12014530/Autumn-Statement-2015-live.html#update-20151125-1247
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Not if he wants to succeed Dave. That's what the U-turn is all about.''

    George Osborne will never lead the conservative party.
  • Labour colleague.

    You can see as Osborne as a Prime Minister in a way that you can't see Corbyn as PM, and I think Osborne is a fecking massive [email protected]
  • Pretty clear Osbourne never intended to carry the tax credit cut through. Master tactician

    It's a hell of a master tactician that allows himself to be the story, allows himself to be held hostage to fortune (unpredictably) and sews doubt amongst his own MPs about his own leadership competence in doing so.

    I don't understand those who think all of this was some huge triple-bluff by Osborne.

    Why would he bother?

    I think he thought Labour's disarray gave him all the political cover he needed and he cocked up.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    2% social care tax capability for councils.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212

    Tulip's question is far too long. Another one who needs brevity training - she lost me.

    chestnut said:

    So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.

    Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?

    Oops, here comes Hampstead.

    She's my MP. What did she ask about?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    See my response upthread - I'm not entirely sure.
    Cyclefree said:

    Tulip's question is far too long. Another one who needs brevity training - she lost me.

    chestnut said:

    So, we've now had questions about Hackney and Islington.

    Does Labour recognise that there is life outside London?

    Oops, here comes Hampstead.

    She's my MP. What did she ask about?
This discussion has been closed.