@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Spppplllliiiittt.
The sound of tearing, as a party, leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
Had the West more definitively intervened in Syria early on, we would undoubtedly have more moderate, more cohesive and more natural ally-material opposition to work with. Unfortunately, things took a different path. Our subsequent obsession with the extremists and refusal to tackle Syria’s complexity has clouded our vision. A ‘moderate’ opposition in culturally attuned terms does exist in Syria, we need only open our eyes to it. Only these groups – and certainly not Assad – will ensure the real extremists such as ISIL and Al-Qaeda eventually lose their grip on power in Syria.
Is that BBC picture the worst 'collar' for Corbyn yet?
Indeed. Collar buttons. Let's talk about them... :-)
On Tom's question, leaving aside whatever he's thinking of specifically, politics is odd in that you have loads of colleagues who you work with more or less cordially but you don't necessarily make many friends. If you agree with someone but don't much like him, you try not to let it get in the way.
Going to Parliament is very like attending a conference and going to various sessions - you see Fred in one and take the chance to have a ten-minute chat about a current issue, but in the evening you all go home to your separate places, far too tired to socialise. Friendships do tend to form on joint trips outside - Select Committees in particular, where people across party find themselves in Bogota trying to figure out how to get around. The affairs you read about (Major/Currie etc.) are the exception, not the rule.
As in all kinds of work you do make a few friends more or less by accident. The MP who I most admired personally was Oliver Letwin, with whose politics I had virtually nothing in common, and who arguably did fit Tom's description during the Thatcher years - really one of the nicest people I've ever met. I've never found a correlation between niceness and any political viewpoint.
True enough, some nasty sorts all over, and saints. I'm often struck in local politics how some councillors seem to get along famously with fierce political opponents, but have the most strained of relationships with people in their own parties, some of whom may be on different wings, as it were, of the party, but others they might agree with on most things but to each other they are just not nice at all.
Is that BBC picture the worst 'collar' for Corbyn yet?
Indeed. Collar buttons. Let's talk about them... :-)
On Tom's question, leaving aside whatever he's thinking of specifically, politics is odd in that you have loads of colleagues who you work with more or less cordially but you don't necessarily make many friends. If you agree with someone but don't much like him, you try not to let it get in the way.
Going to Parliament is very like attending a conference and going to various sessions - you see Fred in one and take the chance to have a ten-minute chat about a current issue, but in the evening you all go home to your separate places, far too tired to socialise. Friendships do tend to form on joint trips outside - Select Committees in particular, where people across party find themselves in Bogota trying to figure out how to get around. The affairs you read about (Major/Currie etc.) are the exception, not the rule.
As in all kinds of work you do make a few friends more or less by accident. The MP who I most admired personally was Oliver Letwin, with whose politics I had virtually nothing in common, and who arguably did fit Tom's description during the Thatcher years - really one of the nicest people I've ever met. I've never found a correlation between niceness and any political viewpoint.
True enough, some nasty sorts all over, and saints. I'm often struck in local politics how some councillors seem to get along famously with fierce political opponents, but have the most strained of relationships with people in their own parties, some of whom may be on different wings, as it were, of the party, but others they might agree with on most things but to each other they are just not nice at all.
Just on Fallout 4: it's apparently about £30 for the PS4 from Amazon, today only. I know some have been musing about this, so thought it might be worth mentioning.
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Says someone who in 2012 was a parliamentary candidate for another party
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Spppplllliiiittt.
The sound of tearing, as a party, it's leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
@BBCAllegra: Just spoken to @fionamacmp who says it's wrong to say she has CALLED on Corbyn to go but YES she doesn't think he should stay on.
FFS, they can't even get this bit right...
Amusing. 'Yes, I think him going would be a good thing, but that doesn't mean I am saying he should go'. I'd have thought if someone thought a leader going would be for the good of the party or country, it would be their duty to say so, so she is being derelicy in her duty.
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Spppplllliiiittt.
The sound of tearing, as a party, leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
I like Soubry's no-nonsense manner, but not her politics. May gets my vote for now - she's got that tough gravitas and a high pain threshold when it comes to political hardball after all that time at Home Office.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
snip
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
Nadine Dorries would be my choice.
Actually, I rather like Nadine Dorries. I've met her a couple of times and I admire the way she fights her corner.
One journalist said he imagined her as the kind of Liverpudlian child who'd go up to someone parking an expensive car at a football match, and say "I'll look after your car for a pound." "My car doesn't need looking after. I've got a dog in the back." "Does your dog put out fires?"
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Spppplllliiiittt.
The sound of tearing, as a party, leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Spppplllliiiittt.
The sound of tearing, as a party, leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
Where is this stat of 60% from?
59.48%, presumably; Corbyn's vote. Maybe you knew that though...
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Wot, no Boris?
I pretty much agree with your top 5, but once you get down to your last three, there are many more potential contenders with an equally good or better chance IMO. It could well be one of those outsiders: there's time for others to come into the limelight, or to catch the attention of MPs before the public/party members have really noticed them.
It will, however, probably be a cabinet minister (unless there's a Leave vote), given that this is going to be an in-flight change of pilot.
Indeed no Boris. He was finished by the living wage rise. I just found the speccy that came out the following week (I think) which basically said he was a spent force. He barely makes the 6pm/10pm news now.
Agreed re: cabinet minister.
If Cameron wants future Tory governments, he'd do better to clear out the Cabinet after the EU referendum. I think it'll be a close remain (although I'll be voting for leave), and so he can get rid of the now old guard (Letwin, Maude, Grayling, Fallon, IDS etc), promote all likely candidates and let them prove themselves before fighting it out in a civilised manner.
Would also have the wonderful effect of clearing a lot of dissatisfaction (IDS is, for example, entirely unfairly, a target of hatred for many) and making the likes of David Davis look even more part of the Tory past.....
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Spppplllliiiittt.
The sound of tearing, as a party, leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
Where is this stat of 60% from?
59.4%, presumably; Corbyn's vote. Maybe you knew that though...
And that correlates exactly with the view on Syria? I suppose it probably does, but how many of these people are actually members?
A ‘moderate’ opposition in culturally attuned terms does exist in Syria, we need only open our eyes to it.
Weird to see the kind of people who are always bitching about "cultural relativism" using a euphemism like "moderate... in culturally attuned terms". It translates to "this person isn't closely identified with any of our top three specifically declared enemies at the moment, and in return for more money and guns he's agreed not to post any more videos of himself eating somebody's heart".
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Wot, no Boris?
I pretty much agree with your top 5, but once you get down to your last three, there are many more potential contenders with an equally good or better chance IMO. It could well be one of those outsiders: there's time for others to come into the limelight, or to catch the attention of MPs before the public/party members have really noticed them.
It will, however, probably be a cabinet minister (unless there's a Leave vote), given that this is going to be an in-flight change of pilot.
Indeed no Boris. He was finished by the living wage rise. I just found the speccy that came out the following week (I think) which basically said he was a spent force. He barely makes the 6pm/10pm news now.
Agreed re: cabinet minister.
If Cameron wants future Tory governments, he'd do better to clear out the Cabinet after the EU referendum. I think it'll be a close remain (although I'll be voting for leave), and so he can get rid of the now old guard (Letwin, Maude, Grayling, Fallon, IDS etc), promote all likely candidates and let them prove themselves before fighting it out in a civilised manner.
Would also have the wonderful effect of clearing a lot of dissatisfaction (IDS is, for example, entirely unfairly, a target of hatred for many) and making the likes of David Davis look even more part of the Tory past.....
I like Soubry's no-nonsense manner, but not her politics. May gets my vote for now - she's got that tough gravitas and a high pain threshold when it comes to political hardball after all that time at Home Office.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
No, Viscount Sidmouth served nine and a half years from 1812-22. In recent times, Chuter Ede holds the record, serving throughout Attlee's administrations i.e. nearly six and a quarter years.
Hodges calls for shadow cabinet to resign en masse.
'Ok, I'll replace you all', says Jezzer.
He had some trouble filling all the posts to start with.
Dennis Skinner was a suggestion from down thread. McDonnell & Abbott would stay. Red Ken becomes a Lord, and gets a post? There are plenty of other deadbeats who'd jump at the chance.
It's ironic that the same criticism which some people are making about intervention in Syria applies equally to the Shadow Cabinet forcing a showdown with Corbyn: what is the plan for clearing up the mess afterwards? They might not succeed in forcing him out, which would make the chaos even worse. Alternatively, if they do succeed, then the Corbynites (probably still a majority of party members, especially if you include the three-quidders) would be livid, and of course they would have a vote on the replacement. A one-candidate stitch-up to deny members a vote would be incredibly divisive, even if it could be engineered, which is very doubtful. Another full-blown leadership contest would equally be divisive and would waste further time (and, importantly, money) - and might well produce another very bad result.
Whatever happens, it looks to me as though Labour have further to fall.
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Spppplllliiiittt.
The sound of tearing, as a party, leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
Where is this stat of 60% from?
59.4%, presumably; Corbyn's vote. Maybe you knew that though...
And that correlates exactly with the view on Syria? I suppose it probably does, but how many of these people are actually members?
Of course it doesn't perfectly. But never let the truth get in the way...
Hodges calls for shadow cabinet to resign en masse.
'Ok, I'll replace you all', says Jezzer.
He had some trouble filling all the posts to start with.
Dennis Skinner was a suggestion from down thread. McDonnell & Abbott would stay. Red Ken becomes a Lord, and gets a post? There are plenty of other deadbeats who'd jump at the chance.
Would bring peace to the War of Skinner's Seat. (What happened about that btw? Did the SNP come to terms?)
In place of Labour a range of new parties will be formed next year, with the two biggest being The Nice Middle Class People and Angry About Everything All The Time.
Hodges calls for shadow cabinet to resign en masse.
'Ok, I'll replace you all', says Jezzer.
He had some trouble filling all the posts to start with.
Dennis Skinner was a suggestion from down thread. McDonnell & Abbott would stay. Red Ken becomes a Lord, and gets a post? There are plenty of other deadbeats who'd jump at the chance.
Would bring peace to the War of Skinner's Seat. (What happened about that btw? Did the SNP come to terms?)
Going further, Corbyn could appoint a People's Cabinet. Ziggy from Hackney as Shadow Energy Minister, Kieran from Northern Ireland as Shadow Home Secretary, that kind of thing.
@RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
When a politician resigns from office – be it in government or opposition – people like me pat them on the back. There was actually a Thick Of It sketch along these lines once. “Look at that, he’s stepped down. Blimey. That’s old school. Don’t see that very often. Good for him."
...But for the person who has resigned, their life has changed. They know the political caravan will move out. What they don’t know is whether they will move with it. They may come back. Or they may not. Someone younger, or brighter, or more interesting may come along. Their principled sacrifice may be forgotten over the course of time. Or it may become tainted. Viewed as a little bit self-indulgent, or self-aggrandising.
@RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
The important question is: will they vote UKIP, or just stay at home?
@RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
@RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
So the question is what they will do instead. If they just abstain I think it's still a Labour hold.
There is only one possible way in which Labour could sink lower now. That is if Richard Burgon decides to do another interview. Is there any indication from the Conservatives or UKIP in Oldham as to how things are shaping up there? Unless you were actually related to the Labour candidate I cannot think of any reason for voting Labour next week
@RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
Corbyn should send IOS to Oldham, that'll boost the Labour ground game.
There is only one possible way in which Labour could sink lower now. That is if Richard Burgon decides to do another interview. Is there any indication from the Conservatives or UKIP in Oldham as to how things are shaping up there? Unless you were actually related to the Labour candidate I cannot think of any reason for voting Labour next week
One prominent 'kipper who's a close friend and has been canvassing up there thinks Labour will hold it, but it will be very tight.
It shows how low Labour have sunk that we can talk about them just about holding Oldham West.
There is only one possible way in which Labour could sink lower now. That is if Richard Burgon decides to do another interview. Is there any indication from the Conservatives or UKIP in Oldham as to how things are shaping up there? Unless you were actually related to the Labour candidate I cannot think of any reason for voting Labour next week
One prominent 'kipper who's a close friend and has been canvassing up there thinks Labour will hold it, but it will be very tight.
It shows how low Labour have sunk that we can talk about them just about holding Oldham West.
It's ironic that the same criticism which some people are making about intervention in Syria applies equally to the Shadow Cabinet forcing a showdown with Corbyn: what is the plan for clearing up the mess afterwards? They might not succeed in forcing him out, which would make the chaos even worse. Alternatively, if they do succeed, then the Corbynites (probably still a majority of party members, especially if you include the three-quidders) would be livid, and of course they would have a vote on the replacement. A one-candidate stitch-up to deny members a vote would be incredibly divisive, even if it could be engineered, which is very doubtful. Another full-blown leadership contest would equally be divisive and would waste further time (and, importantly, money) - and might well produce another very bad result.
Whatever happens, it looks to me as though Labour have further to fall.
It is a good analogy; as Mr Meeks noted there will be millions of refugees. Will UKIP take them all?
Another shadow cabinet minister said: 'This is the new politics. I remember the old politics when we won a few elections and people thought it was conceivable that we could organise a p*** up in a brewery.
Miss Plato, that's the thing. Leftwing shoutyness has its ultimate champion in Corbyn. Of course, if the Lib Dems had gone for dull (but also clearly not mental) Lamb, they'd be in better position to stake out the left-centre position.
@RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May not voting Labour next week was hardly unlikely in a dreary December by-election. The question is how much further they could fall and how many defect to UKIP as opposed to abstaining.
There is only one possible way in which Labour could sink lower now. That is if Richard Burgon decides to do another interview. Is there any indication from the Conservatives or UKIP in Oldham as to how things are shaping up there? Unless you were actually related to the Labour candidate I cannot think of any reason for voting Labour next week
One prominent 'kipper who's a close friend and has been canvassing up there thinks Labour will hold it, but it will be very tight.
It shows how low Labour have sunk that we can talk about them just about holding Oldham West.
There are certainly a good number of people working up there.
There is only one possible way in which Labour could sink lower now. That is if Richard Burgon decides to do another interview. Is there any indication from the Conservatives or UKIP in Oldham as to how things are shaping up there? Unless you were actually related to the Labour candidate I cannot think of any reason for voting Labour next week
One prominent 'kipper who's a close friend and has been canvassing up there thinks Labour will hold it, but it will be very tight.
It shows how low Labour have sunk that we can talk about them just about holding Oldham West.
There are certainly a good number of people working up there.
Historically the kipper ground game is poor. Megaphones and stalls in the high st, but poor canvassing and GOTV.
We shall see if it is getting better. If the kippers fail here in these circumstances we must wonder what their purpose is.
@RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
So the question is what they will do instead. If they just abstain I think it's still a Labour hold.
Indeed - Labour are sinking at present, but the Tories and LDs don't appear to be gaining (we shall see about UKIP), so even if they sink a long way they retain buckets of seats, and a slight recovery from now, say under a new leader, sees them hold their ground even. I know it's been a tough week and months for them, but their underlying position retains a lot of promise all the same.
@JamesTapsfield: Benn: "I'm not going to resign because I'm doing my job as shadow foreign secretary"
Translation. I want to be the next leader when the dust settles from the coming implosion
What a spineless cretinous careerist.
Gutless; spineless.
The Benn tribe have been a blot on the landscape for years.
I only wish that we could find a way of outlawing political dynasties like this. It does our political system no good for families to act as if they had an entitlement to holding political office.
Up to voters they are not a monarchy
It isn't really up to voters, they can only vote for the people who are selected - it is the party hierarchies that control things.
Only if two dynastic candidates face each other and even then members may reject them as candidates first
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Comments
The sound of tearing, as a party, leader and supporters rips itself apart from it's MPs.
http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/yes-there-are-70000-moderate-opposition-fighters-in-syria-heres-what-we-know-about-them/
Nothing is too low to limbo dance under.
Oh, no he was Welsh. Bugger!
I'm still hopeful that Labour can both lose Oldham and Corbyn survive to 2020.
One journalist said he imagined her as the kind of Liverpudlian child who'd go up to someone parking an expensive car at a football match, and say "I'll look after your car for a pound." "My car doesn't need looking after. I've got a dog in the back." "Does your dog put out fires?"
Agreed re: cabinet minister.
If Cameron wants future Tory governments, he'd do better to clear out the Cabinet after the EU referendum. I think it'll be a close remain (although I'll be voting for leave), and so he can get rid of the now old guard (Letwin, Maude, Grayling, Fallon, IDS etc), promote all likely candidates and let them prove themselves before fighting it out in a civilised manner.
Would also have the wonderful effect of clearing a lot of dissatisfaction (IDS is, for example, entirely unfairly, a target of hatred for many) and making the likes of David Davis look even more part of the Tory past.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB4o5n2EGyA
Whatever happens, it looks to me as though Labour have further to fall.
Just catching up.
Ken is a c**t and always has been.
McDonnell and Corbyn are repulsive c**s and always have been.
Abbott is repulsive, thick and also a c**t and always has been.
The PLP couldn't take the skin off a rice pudding.
The government will make some half-arsed attempt to deal with IS in Syria.
Some terrorist is still on the loose in Belgium or France or somewhere in Europe.
Other terrorists continue with their plans to bomb and kill us all to smithereens.
Have I missed anything important?
Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.
It shows how low Labour have sunk that we can talk about them just about holding Oldham West.
I suspect my 8/1 on UKIP is going to be a good value loser.
Carpet bombing and free rides to the polling booth, I hope.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3336090/Labour-s-civil-war-Syria-Corbyn-pulls-key-Oldham-election-visit-MPs-threaten-mass-resignations-refusal-support-airstrikes-against-ISIS.html
This should be a GIFT for the LDs - and it's entirely squandered.
Maybe she might join one of Michael Portillo's Great Continental Railway Journey's.. in East Germany.
He was alway right to rebel against Tory Scum Policies (TM)
They are not allowed to impede The Will Of The True IRA*/Labour
It's one of those iregular verbs, you see
We shall see if it is getting better. If the kippers fail here in these circumstances we must wonder what their purpose is.
New Thread New Thread
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