!. I'm wondering whether Corbyn cares what damage he does to Labour's electoral chances. He's never shown loyalty to the party and with to Ed's new rules he can easily take the party down with him.
2. Having heard Tom Watson I wonder whether he's eyeing the prize. Under other circumstances unthinkable but as an alternative to what's unfolding the Party will be desperate for any lifeline. He's one of the very few savvy enough to do an Iago which he seemed to have started doing this morning.
!. I'm wondering whether Corbyn cares what damage he does to Labour's electoral chances. He's never shown loyalty to the party and with to Ed's new rules he can easily take the party down with him.
2. Having heard Tom Watson I wonder whether he's eyeing the prize. Under other circumstances unthinkable but as an alternative to what's unfolding the Party will be desperate for any lifeline. He's one of the very few savvy enough to do an Iago which he seemed to have started doing this morning.
God help us!
My personal opinion is that the 'men in grey boiler suits', as they used to say, will come for Corbyn in the near future. And then it will be over.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It will turn into - is turning into - a mish-mash of Respect and the SWP. A lot of the people behind the scenes and acting as advisors to Corbyn, Ken and others are or have been SWP members or are linked to Respect. Stop the War is basically a front for the SWP. It is - so far - very successful entryism by the SWP.
They know exactly what they believe and what they want to achieve.
The "moderates" by contrast have no real idea of either. In a battle between the two the former are always going to win.
How long it will take to tarnish the Labour brand - or, indeed, if it will be - is another matter.
That's a disturbing story. Unfortunately, politics attracts some nasty people. I do remember as a callow student being advised by one agent never to be in the same room on my own as Peter Morrison.
I'm told there's a very unpleasant sub-culture of sexual harassment in the Commons, particularly of young researchers, of either sex.
To be fair, this particular form of harassment is I think unusual on the Labour side - one can call it political correctness, but it's one accusation which always gets taken seriously even from ideological allies. Working researchers far beyond what one can reasonably expect is all too common, but not (as far as I know) sexually harrassing them.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.
The basic problem with Corbyn is not that he is a pacifist, that he is surrounded by unpleasant trots who regard most MPs an enemies of the people, or that he is poor at public speaking (though he is all of these things).
The problem is that he is incapable of carrying out the role of a party leader. A leader has to modify their own cherished beliefs to fit around those of his colleagues and the wider electorate - Kinnock abandoned unilateral disarmament, Cameron promoted an EU referendum even though everyone knows that neither really wanted to take these steps - they were compelled to do so by political forces that could not be resisted.
Corbyn is incapable of making these compromises - to him politics is an endless round of protests, meetings with people who agree with him and rebelling against whatever leadership happened to be in place at the time. Compromise is not in his dictionary. It is probably not an exaggeration to say that out of the 650 members of the House of Commons Corbyn is the least suited to a leadership role. The abject failure which is now unfolding should surprise no one - if you appoint a candidate fundamentally unsuited to a job you will have to sack them in short order minimise the damage. Labour cannot begin to repair the damage until he is gone.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.
Assad's army is mostly Sunni. Syrians mostly just want to be Syrians. Balkanising the nation into warring factions is a Qatari, Saudi, Turkish wet dream; it has nothing to do with the aspirations of normal people who live there. We have no right to impose this on the country - mop up the terrorists and GTFO; leave Syrians choose whomever they want to lead their country out of this Western-wrought mess of a 'revolution'.
Thanks and good night.
They've had a civil war in which the ruling regime and all the other sides have committed atrocities. It may be many years too late to move fully back to how it was before; the distrust between communities will be massive.
I like how you know the aspirations of normal people who live there (and I assume you are including refugees who wish to go back).
Using your language: going back to how it was before is a wet dream of pro-Assad fools.
IE Most Syrians.
So you say. But if you hadn't noticed, there's a civil war going on, caused by large parts of the population fighting Assad's forces.
I don't particularly want Syria to be split up. But there needs to be a way for the discontent and anger that caused the civil war to be sated without warfare and without splitting it. A federal solution may - just - be a way of doing it. And whoever leads the federation needs to be able to be trusted by all regions.
And Assad isn't that man, however much you may want him to be. After all, he was in charge when the civil war started, and his regime has committed atrocious crimes.
A federal structure *may* be a way of easing tensions by giving a certain amount of self-determination to different groups whilst still acting as a country.
Going back to Assad running the country will not ease those tensions.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.
It has succeeded.
Labour is having the mother of all debates about it's future now.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
At this rate, the Ed Stone may not even feature in the top 10 list of Labour's biggest cock-ups.
Can't help feeling all the fun will come to an end before too long though.
It's inevitable that the Corbyn Era is now in the endgame. Hilary Benn will take over as a caretaker for a couple of years until a fresh-faced alternative from the newer crowd of Lab MPs emerges to fight GE2020, and Benn will restore Labour to parity or a small lead in the polls and some sort of alternative government respectability, and politics will get a bit boring for a while until the EU referendum kicks off (assuming it actually ever happens)
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.
103 back benchers got a chance to ask questions yesterday. Cameron was there for 2.5 hours. He could not have had more time to set things out clearly and in enough detail.
The case has been made. You might not agree with it. But the case has been put.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Lab backbenchers bottle it and decide at the last minute not to support Cameron.
Number 1 concern will be keeping their jobs and not getting deselected.
I don't think Corbyn is going anywhere.
Only way he might go is if a very big hitter - and that probably means Johnson - challenges him. And he'll have to move very quick. Every day the hard left is gaining power in local parties.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.
Even so, £3 entryism was a necessary requirement.
In a day and age when a million people sign an internet petition about Jeremy Clarkson, they should have foreseen the risks.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.
103 back benchers got a chance to ask questions yesterday. Cameron was there for 2.5 hours. He could not have had more time to set things out clearly and in enough detail.
The case has been made. You might not agree with it. But the case has been put.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.
It has succeeded.
Labour is having the mother of all debates about it's future now.
That's what Beckett wanted wasn't it ?
It's not really a debate, though, is it? It's more of various MPs talking to each other going "WTF??!" "Fuck him". "What's he gone and fucking done/said this time" "Fuck me" and "Oh, FFS!" "This is the last straw." "What are you going to do?" "Nothing"
I mean, the only debate seems to be about which particular swear word is used.
Edited: I realise the last sentence probably applies to me today but in my defence I am channelling my inner SeanT/Labour MP.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.
103 back benchers got a chance to ask questions yesterday. Cameron was there for 2.5 hours. He could not have had more time to set things out clearly and in enough detail.
The case has been made. You might not agree with it. But the case has been put.
Labour needs to grow up. But it won't.
Labour has been hi-jacked.
Will someone overpower those responsible before they crash the plane?
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.
It has succeeded.
Labour is having the mother of all debates about it's future now.
That's what Beckett wanted wasn't it ?
It's the fear of the mob. Labour MPs know their electorate aren't the same as the members - many of whom never voted Labour just six months ago - but they can't find a way out.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Lab backbenchers bottle it and decide at the last minute not to support Cameron.
Number 1 concern will be keeping their jobs and not getting deselected.
I don't think Corbyn is going anywhere.
Only way he might go is if a very big hitter - and that probably means Johnson - challenges him. And he'll have to move very quick. Every day the hard left is gaining power in local parties.
Don't forget there are 57 Lab MPs sitting on majorities of 5000 or less. They have probably got the least to lose as they face losing their seats if Corbyn lasts until 2020. Also some MPs are probably thinking of standing down in 2020 so have nothing to lose.
I don't care about the Labour Party becoming a laughing stock (other than the country needs a good opposition, but I don't care about the Labour "brand") and I am not sure what we should be doing about Syria...
However, the HoC need to vote given the information they have been provided with. They have been briefed, they have had the opportunity to ask Cameron anything and now they been to vote based upon their honest opinion on this.
Pissing about with stalling tactic just to try and dig Jahadi Jez out of a hole is disgraceful and makes the UK a laughing stock.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
Yep. Compare that to how Denis Healey and others fought for their party.
Then the Labour party is going to become a very different (and unelectable) animal.
Unbelievable really.
It is. Historians will have enormous fun unravelling how this happened. Generally they don't like the idea of single moments upon fortune turns these days. But I can't help thinking you could argue this is entirely down to the moment of madness when 15 or so Lab MPs put Corbyn on the ballot 'for a debate'.
It has succeeded.
Labour is having the mother of all debates about it's future now.
That's what Beckett wanted wasn't it ?
It's the fear of the mob. Labour MPs know their electorate aren't the same as the members - many of whom never voted Labour just six months ago - but they can't find a way out.
They're penned in by the £3 mob.
They can go over the heads of the selectorate and go to the electorate.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!
DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th Empress Coaches
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
Adding up all the by-elections since the GE, there has been a swing of approx 3.5% from Lab to Con, (source CCHQ analysis) made up mainly of Labour losing votes.
Tories gained 1%, Lab lost 6%. I see 3.5% as about the swing that will continue. The key indicator in Oldham will be the swing between Con and Lab. UKIP will see the biggest upswing but that is a by-election one off. The long term is change between red and blue.
Corbyn is exactly the man the country and the Tories need. Let's hope he keeps going. Livingstone, McDonell, Galloway, Corbyn, Abbot, Milne - Labour members want them and democracy must prevail.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
How?
More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.
103 back benchers got a chance to ask questions yesterday. Cameron was there for 2.5 hours. He could not have had more time to set things out clearly and in enough detail.
The case has been made. You might not agree with it. But the case has been put.
Labour needs to grow up. But it won't.
Labour has been hi-jacked.
Will someone overpower those responsible before they crash the plane?
Corbyn has locked the cockpit door behind him. Can anyone in the PLP boil a pan of water?
I view the Left as coming in two types: A. Basically decent, moderate, prepared to balance budgets but at a high level of tax and spend, non-PC mad, proud of their nation, internationally engaging, pragmatists, care what most people think - normal but a bit lefty; and B. Grievance mongers, dividers, terrorist sympathisers, economic fantasists, ideologues, vegan fascists, union dinosaurs, Stop The War, egg chuckers - you know the crowd
Labour's heart has always been more to B but they were governed by A types. B feels permanently aggrieved that A is more popular and the fact that Tories can win electoral majorities simply does not compute. The danger with Labour (in most voters eyes) is that B is always threatening to emerge from the shadows. You know that Labour will spend all the money but you also kind of fear they'll do something insane or spiteful to placate their B mob banging on the dungeon doors to get out.
New Labour was an anomaly. The mob somehow lost its mojo for a while. They're back now! B is in full control. And there is no mechanism for an A type to get elected leader. The PLP is mostly A but they don't select the leader. A lefty split has been in the offing since the 1980s. Which was, errr, the last time they split. B can't forever be kept in the dungeon. A can move on and create its own party. B will then fade into nothingness (a la SWP, Left Unity, etc). A 'New A' party might succeed for a while. But then the dungeon monsters who will have gravitated across - members and all - will resurface.
The underlying problem is that Socialism doesn't work. And B is simply incapable of learning it. The only thing voters can sensibly do is keep B well away from the levers of power.
And, as a righty, much as this might appeal in the long term, I don't think it is good for the right to go un-opposed, unchallenged.
It would be good for all in British politics if Labour finally died. And a decent, sensible, 'B free' new party of the left emerged.
Where do all the Labour MPs fit who engage in endless virtue signalling? I am thinking the likes of Mrs Balls. There are far far too many Labour MPs who cry racist and bigot as soon as immigration or refugees are mentioned.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
How?
More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.
This is why Labour in its current form is doomed...
@krishgm: We can't find a single Labour MP expressing concern about the leadership's Syria position prepared to come on TV tonight to debate
At this rate, the Ed Stone may not even feature in the top 10 list of Labour's biggest cock-ups.
Can't help feeling all the fun will come to an end before too long though.
It's inevitable that the Corbyn Era is now in the endgame. Hilary Benn will take over as a caretaker for a couple of years until a fresh-faced alternative from the newer crowd of Lab MPs emerges to fight GE2020, and Benn will restore Labour to parity or a small lead in the polls and some sort of alternative government respectability, and politics will get a bit boring for a while until the EU referendum kicks off (assuming it actually ever happens)
How will Benn even get the leadership? Corbyn will win any new leadership race, the YouGov from the other day shows he still has the majority of support from the party. His leadership has pushed the party so far to the left that the membership is now much more to the left than it was under Ed.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
How?
More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
How?
More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.
Could take some votes off Greens, Lib Dems....
He has already got that sort of support. He isn't going to get it from the Labour heartlands - where patriotism is still a powerful motivating factor
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
Didn't work for Labour or Ed last time. I don't see why it would work this time, especially since there is a clear majority of people in favour of military action.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
Hmm What could happen is thus:
Bombing Syria goes ahead.
IS however goes nowhere and carries on merrily terrorising people for the next few years whilst we get locked into a long bombing stalemate.
Even though it was certainly the correct thing to do (The counterfactual will be IS doing better than they otherwise would) the general public is not great at judging these things. So people start misremembering that they were against the bombing, and believing Corbyn's crap.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
Didn't work for Labour or Ed last time. I don't see why it would work this time, especially since there is a clear majority of people in favour of military action.
It's more likely to be presented as Labour not being prepared to take on IS. And when an IS atrocity happens here, then Labour's inaction will be blamed.
@JoeMurphyLondon: I'm hearing that the Labour whips are sounding out MPs on a motion that "the case has not been made." Backbenchers not 100pc impressed.
Playing silly buggers....either back it or not. No more pissing about.
Quite. Reasonable people will still differ after the case was put, and despite vehement disagreement at least everyone will see what they each stand. So long as no one attempts to weasel out of taking an actual stand.
Momentum Social - Curry with a few words from John McDonnell Tomorrow 16:45 · Oldham, United Kingdom
How nice a curry? I can put up with many words for a good curry.
After a hard day's canvassing for Labour candidate Jim McMahon on Saturday, please come and join us for a curry! We will meet at 4.15 at the Labour Campaign Centre, 227 Middleton Road, Chadderton, Oldham, OL9 6JR to take a photo with John and then we will take a five minute walk with him to Eastern Pavilion Banqueting Hall. John is planning to say a few words at the meal. You can bring your own drinks and there will be great food for the bargain price of £4.50! Priority given to those who have been canvassing.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
Didn't work for Labour or Ed last time. I don't see why it would work this time, especially since there is a clear majority of people in favour of military action.
It's more likely to be presented as Labour not being prepared to take on IS. And when an IS atrocity happens here, then Labour's inaction will be blamed.
That's the risk for Labour.
The plain unvarnished facts are clear to all. The shadow cabinet were given a security presentation the other day. By er... The security services. Corbyn turned up 15 minutes late. Does this not tell us the plain facts of just about everything?
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
I agree or at least give him a cushion. Plus the Oldham win (for it shall be) he will feel as though he is doing at least as well as any other opposition leader 100 +/- days in and better than many of them.
Lab MPs would then have to consider whether to keep up the insurgency. Lab would be basking in no small amount of success as far as the casual onlooker would be concerned (ie not here on PB), and to rail against that might seem less sensible from a pragmatic survivalist perspective.
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
I agree or at least give him a cushion. Plus the Oldham win (for it shall be) he will feel as though he is doing at least as well as any other opposition leader 100 +/- days in and better than many of them.
Lab MPs would then have to consider whether to keep up the insurgency. Lab would be basking in no small amount of success as far as the casual onlooker would be concerned (ie not here on PB), and to rail against that might seem less sensible from a pragmatic survivalist perspective.
The sixth, and perhaps most ridiculous, is this repeated chorus of "That's what ISIS want". Seriously, who cares what they "want"? Why is that a consideration? We're looking to destroy them, not spite them. The fact that they want some long-prophesied showdown at Dabiq is no reason not to give it to them. We can rest assured that no messiah will come to their rescue, and those among them who eagerly await their meeting with Allah can be helped to achieve their goal, to everyone's benefit, with the rest scattering underground. After all the evil things us Westerners have done to them, it's the least we can do at this point.
Kind of falls down by glossing over Iraq and how it led to ISIS.
Iraq is now a radicalisation hoy spot because thr Iraq government is tremendously sectarian. Once the Americans left the iraqi gov abandoned any pretence of treating shia and sunni equally.
Until that situation is resolved ISIS or ISIS a like will continue to exist or reoccur.
'I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn"
Very unlikely. Cameron's argument was feeble yesterday but being a pacifist is no argument at all. Any credit for preventing Cameron making the wrong decision will vanish into the ether.
London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!
DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th Empress Coaches
Departs 8.15? They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is? And they are having a curry 4.45.
London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!
DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th Empress Coaches
Departs 8.15? They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is? And they are having a curry 4.45.
The sixth, and perhaps most ridiculous, is this repeated chorus of "That's what ISIS want". Seriously, who cares what they "want"? Why is that a consideration? We're looking to destroy them, not spite them. The fact that they want some long-prophesied showdown at Dabiq is no reason not to give it to them. We can rest assured that no messiah will come to their rescue, and those among them who eagerly await their meeting with Allah can be helped to achieve their goal, to everyone's benefit, with the rest scattering underground. After all the evil things us Westerners have done to them, it's the least we can do at this point.
A very good comment. I'm not chomping at the bit to do some retaliatory bombing or sold that this time we will get intervention right, but that particular argument has been pretty silly. Even the argument they want it as it helps fuel further extremism doesn't hold water, as they don't seem to have a problem furthering it as it is, and any action taken or not taken they will attempt to use for that purpose, including the crusades.
As it is, perhaps the problem behind groups like them cannot be solved - namely that millions of people support their views - but perhaps it can be beaten down temporarily at least.
Cameron could just shut all of this down tonight. Use the prerogative to start military action.
The constitution gives him the right. Though he probably doesn't want to use it. He might just have to.
I agree but the danger is not, let us say, an invasion fleet or columns of tanks rolling towards us. When a person was a direct planner of an attack on our soil we did IIRC take him out with a drone strike in Syria, and we helped the Americans I think with Jihadi John. I think that policy should and will continue.
"Jeremy Corbyn told to resign by Labour MPs as Syria vote engulfs his leadership
The Labour leader, who has pulled out of a visit to the Oldham by-election, is facing calls to quit after he is accused of treating his shadow cabinet with 'contempt' over Syria air strikes"
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
How?
More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.
Darren McCaffrey Suggestions @IainMcNicol allegedly threaten with the sack if he didn't comply with leaders office on lifting suspension on Andrew Fisher.
Again Alex Massie says it as it is. E.g. these snippets:
... It is hard to think of precedents for this nonsense. The Labour party is currently in the business of making Ukip seem respectable and adult. But that is what is happening as the Labour party is taken over by cranks. ... Things won’t get better. They will get worse. Stop Me If You Think You’ve Heard This One Before but there is no escaping this. Oblivion awaits.
Yvette Cooper writes to the PM to ask for security and Defence briefings for MPs on Monday before making up their minds on air strikes
The Shadow Cabinet have already had one.
But maybe this is a ploy to act as cover for ignoring all the weekend emails tweets and bricks through the window and the horse's head at the foot of the bed.
The fashion for voting on military action began with Blair and Iraq. If the PM thinks there's a security risk and that military action will make us safer, he should just do it.
"14,000 illegal immigrants disappear in Sweden without trace More than 14,000 foreign nationals told to leave Sweden have instead gone underground, with police saying there is little they can do to enforce deportation orders."
Mr. JS, I'm shocked. Stunned. Astonished. Astounded. My gast is flabbered. I am rendered speechless by this unpredictable turn of events. Gosh. Golly. Only the Oracle at Delphi could have foreseen this happening.
......
Still, that's just the appetiser ahead of the German main course.
Edited extra bit: Miss Plato, if true, that's grubbier than a dung beetle's dinner.
London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!
DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th Empress Coaches
Departs 8.15? They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is? And they are having a curry 4.45.
Did you include the service station breaks? Do we allow for it leaving on time? 15 minutes late is now quite fashionable I hear. Do we allow for it to be a speed limited coach? Do we allow for the early arrival for the curries? Come on this is a betting forum, just how much canvassing will get done? Two and a half hours?
London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!
DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th Empress Coaches
Departs 8.15? They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is? And they are having a curry 4.45.
Did you include the service station breaks? Do we allow for it leaving on time? 15 minutes late is now quite fashionable I hear. Do we allow for it to be a speed limited coach? Do we allow for the early arrival for the curries? Come on this is a betting forum, just how much canvassing will get done? Two and a half hours?
I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
How?
More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.
Comments
!. I'm wondering whether Corbyn cares what damage he does to Labour's electoral chances. He's never shown loyalty to the party and with to Ed's new rules he can easily take the party down with him.
2. Having heard Tom Watson I wonder whether he's eyeing the prize. Under other circumstances unthinkable but as an alternative to what's unfolding the Party will be desperate for any lifeline. He's one of the very few savvy enough to do an Iago which he seemed to have started doing this morning.
God help us!
They know exactly what they believe and what they want to achieve.
The "moderates" by contrast have no real idea of either. In a battle between the two the former are always going to win.
How long it will take to tarnish the Labour brand - or, indeed, if it will be - is another matter.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/34945796
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-34947837
The problem is that he is incapable of carrying out the role of a party leader. A leader has to modify their own cherished beliefs to fit around those of his colleagues and the wider electorate - Kinnock abandoned unilateral disarmament, Cameron promoted an EU referendum even though everyone knows that neither really wanted to take these steps - they were compelled to do so by political forces that could not be resisted.
Corbyn is incapable of making these compromises - to him politics is an endless round of protests, meetings with people who agree with him and rebelling against whatever leadership happened to be in place at the time. Compromise is not in his dictionary. It is probably not an exaggeration to say that out of the 650 members of the House of Commons Corbyn is the least suited to a leadership role. The abject failure which is now unfolding should surprise no one - if you appoint a candidate fundamentally unsuited to a job you will have to sack them in short order minimise the damage. Labour cannot begin to repair the damage until he is gone.
I don't particularly want Syria to be split up. But there needs to be a way for the discontent and anger that caused the civil war to be sated without warfare and without splitting it. A federal solution may - just - be a way of doing it. And whoever leads the federation needs to be able to be trusted by all regions.
And Assad isn't that man, however much you may want him to be. After all, he was in charge when the civil war started, and his regime has committed atrocious crimes.
A federal structure *may* be a way of easing tensions by giving a certain amount of self-determination to different groups whilst still acting as a country.
Going back to Assad running the country will not ease those tensions.
Labour is having the mother of all debates about it's future now.
That's what Beckett wanted wasn't it ?
It's inevitable that the Corbyn Era is now in the endgame. Hilary Benn will take over as a caretaker for a couple of years until a fresh-faced alternative from the newer crowd of Lab MPs emerges to fight GE2020, and Benn will restore Labour to parity or a small lead in the polls and some sort of alternative government respectability, and politics will get a bit boring for a while until the EU referendum kicks off (assuming it actually ever happens)
Mr. Pulpstar, in the same way Croesus launched a war after the Oracle told him it would destroy a great empire [which turned out to be his].
I think the gutless Labour party has years of McIRA and Jezbollah fun ahead.
There is a real Momentum behind the loony left from the membership, and McMahon will be written off as a red Tory if he dares to lose Oldham !
The case has been made. You might not agree with it. But the case has been put.
Labour needs to grow up. But it won't.
Number 1 concern will be keeping their jobs and not getting deselected.
I don't think Corbyn is going anywhere.
Only way he might go is if a very big hitter - and that probably means Johnson - challenges him. And he'll have to move very quick. Every day the hard left is gaining power in local parties.
In a day and age when a million people sign an internet petition about Jeremy Clarkson, they should have foreseen the risks.
I mean, the only debate seems to be about which particular swear word is used.
Edited: I realise the last sentence probably applies to me today but in my defence I am channelling my inner SeanT/Labour MP.
Monday morning all (or almost all) Lab backbenchers will have reconsidered and Cameron won't be able to risk it.
We're going to Oldham West and Royton tomorrow to help Jim McMahon. Please retweet & share Facebook event: https://www.facebook.com/events/647628268707984/ … #IbackJim
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0An2RhMA8I
And, of course, this is then going to be portrayed as a HUGE WIN FOR CORBYN.
Will someone overpower those responsible before they crash the plane?
They're penned in by the £3 mob.
"That's what Beckett wanted wasn't it ? "
'Endgame?'
And if Hilary Benn votes against (or even abstains) - given he has already gone on the record supporting action - he will be a laughing stock.
The momentum is towards military action. Momentum can bully all they like.
Who are the peaceniks on the Tory benches btw ?
However, the HoC need to vote given the information they have been provided with. They have been briefed, they have had the opportunity to ask Cameron anything and now they been to vote based upon their honest opinion on this.
Pissing about with stalling tactic just to try and dig Jahadi Jez out of a hole is disgraceful and makes the UK a laughing stock.
If one side still trying to kill you that is no peace.
An awful lot of people are not keen on military action in Syria - when it doesn't go ahead the headlines are going to be "Corbyn Stops Military Action" etc - and it will give him a big popularity boost.
London to Oldham Return Coach and Canvassing confirmation!
DEPARTS: 8.15am, Saturday 28th
Outside McDonalds, 155 Victoria St, London, Westminster, Greater London SW1E 5NA
RETURN: Leave Oldham at 7.30pm, returning to London at approx. 11.30pm, Saturday 28th
Empress Coaches
Tories gained 1%, Lab lost 6%. I see 3.5% as about the swing that will continue. The key indicator in Oldham will be the swing between Con and Lab. UKIP will see the biggest upswing but that is a by-election one off. The long term is change between red and blue.
Corbyn is exactly the man the country and the Tories need. Let's hope he keeps going. Livingstone, McDonell, Galloway, Corbyn, Abbot, Milne - Labour members want them and democracy must prevail.
Tomorrow 16:45 · Oldham, United Kingdom
More then 2/3 of the population support the need for military action. He isn't going to get a popularity boost from anywhere.
ie how many polls, question wording etc?
I'll get my boat....
Bombing Syria goes ahead.
IS however goes nowhere and carries on merrily terrorising people for the next few years whilst we get locked into a long bombing stalemate.
Even though it was certainly the correct thing to do (The counterfactual will be IS doing better than they otherwise would) the general public is not great at judging these things. So people start misremembering that they were against the bombing, and believing Corbyn's crap.
That's the risk for Labour.
Corbyn turned up 15 minutes late.
Does this not tell us the plain facts of just about everything?
Lab MPs would then have to consider whether to keep up the insurgency. Lab would be basking in no small amount of success as far as the casual onlooker would be concerned (ie not here on PB), and to rail against that might seem less sensible from a pragmatic survivalist perspective.
They are going to need an hour just for Labour :-)
http://order-order.com/2015/11/27/tory-mp-bob-stewart-calls-isis-bastards-on-morning-tv/
Iraq is now a radicalisation hoy spot because thr Iraq government is tremendously sectarian. Once the Americans left the iraqi gov abandoned any pretence of treating shia and sunni equally.
Until that situation is resolved ISIS or ISIS a like will continue to exist or reoccur.
'I think this could be a defining moment in BOOSTING support for Corbyn"
Very unlikely. Cameron's argument was feeble yesterday but being a pacifist is no argument at all. Any credit for preventing Cameron making the wrong decision will vanish into the ether.
The constitution gives him the right. Though he probably doesn't want to use it. He might just have to.
They are not going to spend much time canvassing given the usual state of the M6 - do they know where Oldham is?
And they are having a curry 4.45.
A very good comment. I'm not chomping at the bit to do some retaliatory bombing or sold that this time we will get intervention right, but that particular argument has been pretty silly. Even the argument they want it as it helps fuel further extremism doesn't hold water, as they don't seem to have a problem furthering it as it is, and any action taken or not taken they will attempt to use for that purpose, including the crusades.
As it is, perhaps the problem behind groups like them cannot be solved - namely that millions of people support their views - but perhaps it can be beaten down temporarily at least.
Forget about the EU becoming a monolithic, impractical and undemocratic European superstate: it's just the first step to a single world government.
Has anyone else seen black helicopters recently?
When a person was a direct planner of an attack on our soil we did IIRC take him out with a drone strike in Syria, and we helped the Americans I think with Jihadi John.
I think that policy should and will continue.
Yvette Cooper writes to the PM to ask for security and Defence briefings for MPs on Monday before making up their minds on air strikes
The Labour leader, who has pulled out of a visit to the Oldham by-election, is facing calls to quit after he is accused of treating his shadow cabinet with 'contempt' over Syria air strikes"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12020202/Jeremy-Corbyn-cancels-Oldham-by-election-visit-as-crisis-over-Syria-engulfs-his-leadership.html
Pretty clear cut, even a plurality in favour of British and American ground forces.
Suggestions @IainMcNicol allegedly threaten with the sack if he didn't comply with leaders office on lifting suspension on Andrew Fisher.
But maybe this is a ploy to act as cover for ignoring all the weekend emails tweets and bricks through the window and the horse's head at the foot of the bed.
The fashion for voting on military action began with Blair and Iraq. If the PM thinks there's a security risk and that military action will make us safer, he should just do it.
"14,000 illegal immigrants disappear in Sweden without trace
More than 14,000 foreign nationals told to leave Sweden have instead gone underground, with police saying there is little they can do to enforce deportation orders."
http://www.thelocal.se/20151127/14000-illegal-immigrants-disappear-without-trace
......
Still, that's just the appetiser ahead of the German main course.
Edited extra bit: Miss Plato, if true, that's grubbier than a dung beetle's dinner.
Do we allow for it to be a speed limited coach?
Do we allow for the early arrival for the curries?
Come on this is a betting forum, just how much canvassing will get done?
Two and a half hours?
Assuming a 20 mins pee break on route plus at least 4hrs 25mins travelling - that's a 1pm start/wasting time getting into groups/leaflets etc.
So maybe 3.5hrs max total?