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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Jeremy Hunt betting

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    @britainelects: The monthly averages of Westminster voting intentions throughout the year.
    [Table] https://t.co/6Scnj4ulIj

    The Corbyn honeymoon discernible in September and October seems to have ended.

    Labour falling at the same time as the Libdems and Greens.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    OchEye said:

    felix said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Taking military action is not about party politics it's about trying to achieve a consesnus across the house. DC has gone to great lengths to achieve this - take the blinkers off.
    Well put. When previous Tory rebel Dr Sarah Wollaston is voting for action on Syria this time, I'm pretty sure Cameron has the votes in the bag. It's about sending a message to ISIS that we have the resolve to take them on. The bigger the vote, the greater our resolve.

    The people playing party politics are those in Labour, desperate not to offend their core Muslim vote - meaning even the most base medieval psychopaths have to be handled with kid gloves.
    I listened to the whole debate - it was clear how Cameron had come to listen and persuade - and how Corbyn was unpersuadable - his 13 questions - most of which Cameron had already answered - were designed to simply result in nothing happening. He wills the end - but lacks the moral courage to propose the means.....
    And you would be quite happy to commit yourself and your family to go and fight Da'esh? Or would you trust our elected politicians to do the right thing? Erm! Let me see now. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all worked out rather well, don't you think?
    Afghanistan has worked out fine, and is the closest analogy to the present situation. Take the counterfactual for Afghanistan, Al Qaeda acting with total impunity there, training more terrorists for more 9-11s and 7-7s.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    edited November 2015
    Sorry, I was trying to shorten previous comments, apologies if I cut any one out in their prime.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: I'm thinking Jeremy Corbyn is set to put his leadership on the line over #Syria vote. Back me or back the shadow cabinet.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jez on Marr looking quite smart and dapper.

    New suit, tie and crisp shirt. Beard neatly trimmed.

    The giveaway is jacket gape, and unsuitable shoes.
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    @patrickwintour: Corbyn says the leader not the shadow cabinet decides the party whip in Labour Party.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Can anyone actually tell me why it's so absurd not to be bombing Syria as opposed to doing more in Iraq and correspondly others doing more in Syria?

    I answered this when you asked it the other day. The main reason being we have capabilities that would be useful, and which cannot necessarily be easily replicated by the other forces.
    The other factor is that our planes are based in Cyprus. It takes several hours and refuelling to attack a target in Iraq. Mobile targets have often moved by that point. We would be more effective bombing Syria than Iraq, crowded airspace permitting!
    I would stick to doctoring.

    Doing a "rooftop hop" they could be in downtown Bagdad or Mosul in little under an hour. Less if they go supersonic. No refuelling required. Faster on the way back as they would be lighter of course :wink:
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2015
    Dixie said:

    By-election in Oldham is going to be exciting for all us watchers this week.A few weeks, I trawled a few political sites to get the low down on vote shares. Putting together apples and oranges (gossip), it seems a Labour hold. The reds think they simply will not fall below 39% of votes. Their Postal votes are quite organised and a good ethnic voter base will get them over the line. UKIP are saying that they don't have the resources nor old gallivanting reputation like pre-GE.

    The Tories are quietly confident of a small up tick. I guess:

    Labour - 39%
    UKIP - 34%
    Tories - 14%

    Win for Labour

    However, for the major opposition party to get a swing against it in a by-election spells disaster for them.

    The only chance for UKIP is if Labour voters stay at home. Possible.

    We Tories need Corbyn to last long enough to destroy Labour. He's got at least 2 years to go, hopefully.

    Foot and Brown managed 45% in Oldham (27% and 29% nationally)

    If Labour go below 40% in Oldham, they're on for 25% nationally, irrespective of the current opinion polls.

    Oddly enough, their NW seats (excl Cumbria) have been their better results in local by elections in the last couple of months.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,633
    JackW said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Corbyn wouldn't advocate bombing Syria in any circumstance, but other opinions are also divided.

    A number of Con, UKIP, LD and SNP people are also very sceptical of the proposed bombing. To many of us it is an unplanned foreign entanglement without clear goals, without well defined military objectives and without a post bombing plan.

    That may be so although I demur from your analysis.

    However to my mind another significant issue must also be factored in. Terrorists need to be aware that murdering British citizens is not a risk free option and that the UK has the will and ability to strike back in full measure.

    The alternative is that we sit back and accept the very significant human, economic and political damage to our nation and allow the cancer to spread and weaken us further.

    No liberal democracy can allow that disease to take hold.

    It already has.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Yeah, cos private healthcare companies are never led by producer interests. They are famous for their altruism and public spiritedness.
    They are led by shareholder interests, regulated by contract and intangible concerns such as reputation. In general, though, they want to give the required minimum service at the lowest possible cost (although there are certainly some that position themselves as a higher quality of care/higher price service offering).

    The NHS is not perfect - but too often the BMA and the unions come over as opposed to any change rather than thinking about what is in the best interests of patients. Of course, as individual actors, they are just doing what they are supposed to do, but when they have effective control of the future of the organisation this is - by definition - producter capture

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2015
    Corbyn 'Has not been a terrible few weeks for Labour at all, party membership has gone up, the government has retreated on tax credits and police cuts. I am enjoying every moment'. Asked whether we were looking at the next PM 'I hope you are'
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    On topic, I'd prefer to back the 2/7 than the 5/2. David Cameron has changed his cabinet minimally since becoming Prime Minister and shows loyalty to friends (he stuck by Jeremy Corbyn over the row about Sky, so we can infer that he's a friend). Michael Gove was moved as a prelude to the general election and one isn't due for years yet.

    The risk is that a home might need to be found for Boris Johnson after May. As part of a wider reshuffle for that purpose Jeremy Hunt might be moved.

    So, no bet.

    I think that Cameron stuck by Hunt rather than Corbyn over BSkyB!

    Bojo would be good as party chair. Tubthumping speeches and no policies to trip over. Not so sure that the fillies would be completely safe though!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Corbyn defiant message to Labour MPs plotting to get rid of him:
    "I'm not going anywhere."
    I'm enjoying every moment of it.
    #marr
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    On topic, I'd prefer to back the 2/7 than the 5/2. David Cameron has changed his cabinet minimally since becoming Prime Minister and shows loyalty to friends (he stuck by Jeremy Corbyn over the row about Sky, so we can infer that he's a friend). Michael Gove was moved as a prelude to the general election and one isn't due for years yet.

    The risk is that a home might need to be found for Boris Johnson after May. As part of a wider reshuffle for that purpose Jeremy Hunt might be moved.

    So, no bet.

    I think that Cameron stuck by Hunt rather than Corbyn over BSkyB!

    Bojo would be good as party chair. Tubthumping speeches and no policies to trip over. Not so sure that the fillies would be completely safe though!
    That'll teach me not to multitask!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    There are no tanks in Baghdad
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn 'Has not been a terrible few weeks for Labour at all, party membership has gone up, the government has retreated on tax credits and police cuts'

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    @ShippersUnbound: "I'm not going anywhere," says Corbyn.

    Take note everyone thinking he might resign.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Members trump voters.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    @ShippersUnbound: "I'm not going anywhere," says Corbyn.

    Take note everyone thinking he might resign.

    Superb stuff.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LBC: Diane Abbott tells @StigAbell front-bench colleagues who vote for Syria strikes should quit https://t.co/Pt68qcpeQ4 https://t.co/imBTJ5PvF5
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    chestnut said:

    Members trump voters.

    The voters prefer the Tories anyways.

    Members > PLP careerists.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Corbyn wouldn't advocate bombing Syria in any circumstance, but other opinions are also divided.

    A number of Con, UKIP, LD and SNP people are also very sceptical of the proposed bombing. To many of us it is an unplanned foreign entanglement without clear goals, without well defined military objectives and without a post bombing plan.

    JC wouldn't advocate action against Da'esh in Iraq, either, but we're already doing that - and that being the case, it's absurd to not also act against them in Syria. Not least because Da'esh don't recognise the border.
    I would agree with that. It seems that Syria is the only country that we are not permitted to bomb.

    It would be worth discussing what we aim to achieve though. What are the objectives of bombing? Are they achievable without troops on the ground localising targets? Who are our allies and who are our enemies? Is it just IS or also other Islamist groups or even the Assad government? What does victory look like and can it last without a permanent military presence? Are we in for the long haul, with all the financial and human costs that come with it? Finally, wouldn't it be better to concentrate on the IS moles and sympathisers in our own country before tackling those in another?
    One of the major aims is standing by an ally who has asked us for our help.

    Otherwise, the next time we need their support, they won't be there.

    The primary objective is to degrade Daesh's military capabilities, to make them less attractive to new combatants and to provide support for the local troops on the group. Long term the solution for Syria needs to be political rather than military but we need to keep Daesh off balance in the interim.

    Of course you need to concentrate on the moles and sympathisers in our own country, but it's not an either or case. You can't cure a vector borne infection without draining the swamp as part of the process.
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    Scott_P said:

    @LBC: Diane Abbott tells @StigAbell front-bench colleagues who vote for Syria strikes should quit https://t.co/Pt68qcpeQ4 https://t.co/imBTJ5PvF5

    Or be sacked by the person who appointed them?
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    @ShippersUnbound: "I'm not going anywhere," says Corbyn.

    Take note everyone thinking he might resign.

    It was a very assured and confident performance by Corbyn
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    Jez on Marr looking quite smart and dapper.

    New suit, tie and crisp shirt. Beard neatly trimmed.

    The giveaway is jacket gape, and unsuitable shoes.
    Could be defined as "work in progress"!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    *honks and claps like a seal*
    Scott_P said:

    @LBC: Diane Abbott tells @StigAbell front-bench colleagues who vote for Syria strikes should quit https://t.co/Pt68qcpeQ4 https://t.co/imBTJ5PvF5

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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    That performance might have extended his tenure, depending on how many people saw it. Maybe it's enough that the political commentators will have all watched it. Now we painfully wait to see how he will whip it.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    OchEye said:

    felix said:

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....

    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Taking military action is not about party politics it's about trying to achieve a consesnus across the house. DC has gone to great lengths to achieve this - take the blinkers off.
    Well put. When previous Tory rebel Dr Sarah Wollaston is voting for action on Syria this time, I'm pretty sure Cameron has the votes in the bag. It's about sending a message to ISIS that we have the resolve to take them on. The bigger the vote, the greater our resolve.

    The people playing party politics are those in Labour, desperate not to offend their core Muslim vote - meaning even the most base medieval psychopaths have to be handled with kid gloves.
    I listened to the whole debate - it was clear how Cameron had come to listen and persuade - and how Corbyn was unpersuadable - his 13 questions - most of which Cameron had already answered - were designed to simply result in nothing happening. He wills the end - but lacks the moral courage to propose the means.....
    But they, like ISIL now, thrive in failed states. You are completely right to imply that not resolving those failed states cannot produce a permanent solution to the threat from Islamist terrorism. Where I disagree is in the inference that because we've not done that in the past, we shouldn't even get involved at all now. On the contrary: what's needed is a twin-track approach, not a zero-track one.
    Libya wasn't actually a war...at the start anyway. I understood Daffy threatened to wipe out a city and entire population of that city forcing the French and British to act quickly in defence. The argument to take action was based on lack of action in the Kosovo ethnic cleansing. In fairness there was little time to consider a "post war" post defence situation. It is only the left that describes Libya as a war and that purely to attempt to align it with Blairs monumental follies in the Middle East. TBF to the coalition 2010-15 and now the Tories they have tried to extract ground troops at earliest possible time.
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    @JohnRentoul: My best estimate of how MPs will vote on Syria this week @IndyOnSunday Thx @HenrikPetters https://t.co/7M6uPuLzZL
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2015
    chestnut said:

    Dixie said:

    By-election in Oldham is going to be exciting for all us watchers this week.A few weeks, I trawled a few political sites to get the low down on vote shares. Putting together apples and oranges (gossip), it seems a Labour hold. The reds think they simply will not fall below 39% of votes. Their Postal votes are quite organised and a good ethnic voter base will get them over the line. UKIP are saying that they don't have the resources nor old gallivanting reputation like pre-GE.

    The Tories are quietly confident of a small up tick. I guess:

    Labour - 39%
    UKIP - 34%
    Tories - 14%

    Win for Labour

    However, for the major opposition party to get a swing against it in a by-election spells disaster for them.

    The only chance for UKIP is if Labour voters stay at home. Possible.

    We Tories need Corbyn to last long enough to destroy Labour. He's got at least 2 years to go, hopefully.

    Foot and Brown managed 45% in Oldham (27% and 29% nationally)

    If Labour go below 40% in Oldham, they're on for 25% nationally, irrespective of the current opinion polls.

    Oddly enough, their NW seats (excl Cumbria) have been their better results in local by elections in the last couple of months.
    The latest Comres has Labour on 27% anyway so not far off and the same as Foot (although by-elections tend to exaggerate the thread, eg the Tories even lost Christchurch in 1993 but won it back in 1997 and Romsey in 2000 and while they failed to win it back in 2001 they did not lose other seats with a similar majority)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Seven days a week full coverage is a great goal. But don't try to achieve it by blackmail. If the resources exist then do it, but not necessarily by demanding unreasonable sacrifices.
    Expand the resources if necessary, if you can.
    Fundamentally - AIUI - the doctors have, on average been offered a decent pay rise in order to work a shift pattern including weekends rather than on a Monday-Friday basis. At the same time, in order to make it affordable (and also because it doesn't make any sense in a 7-day shift pattern) additional payments for weekend/evening work are being removed. Clearly this will negatively impact the earnings of some doctors whose work is heavily weighted towards weekend/evening slots.

    Asking people to work a 7-day week shift pattern in return for a pay rise is not "demanding unreasonable sacrifices". Normal people doing it all the time. Some idiots (like me) work weekends without any pay increase despite the fact that my contract says 9-6 Monday to Friday.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    OchEye said:

    felix said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Taking military action is not about party politics it's about trying to achieve a consesnus across the house. DC has gone to great lengths to achieve this - take the blinkers off.
    Well put. When previous Tory rebel Dr Sarah Wollaston is voting for action on Syria this time, I'm pretty sure Cameron has the votes in the bag. It's about sending a message to ISIS that we have the resolve to take them on. The bigger the vote, the greater our resolve.

    The people playing party politics are those in Labour, desperate not to offend their core Muslim vote - meaning even the most base medieval psychopaths have to be handled with kid gloves.
    I listened to the whole debate - it was clear how Cameron had come to listen and persuade - and how Corbyn was unpersuadable - his 13 questions - most of which Cameron had already answered - were designed to simply result in nothing happening. He wills the end - but lacks the moral courage to propose the means.....
    And you would be quite happy to commit yourself and your family to go and fight Da'esh? Or would you trust our elected politicians to do the right thing? Erm! Let me see now. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all worked out rather well, don't you think?
    Afghanistan has worked out fine, and is the closest analogy to the present situation. Take the counterfactual for Afghanistan, Al Qaeda acting with total impunity there, training more terrorists for more 9-11s and 7-7s.
    Er! Now that Pakistani intelligence is being brought under control and their Taliban restricted then it has become quieter in Afghanistan. Now that we have "left", there is less reason for trouble. Although, using dubious technology with out briefed troops on the ground is allowing the US to continue crimes against humanity by bombing hospitals and wedding parties.

    So which is the more dangerous? Getting bombed by the US and UK drones and fighter bombers or getting shot up and bombed by drones and fighters from Da'esh (One man's freedom fighter is another's terroist)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Apparently ISIS refer to Iran and its fighters as 'Crusaders'. It is really a Sunni versus Shia battle, with the 'wrong' sort of Sunnis (i.e. ones who do not buy into ISIS) being apostates, and almost everyone else fighting them 'Crusaders'.

    I guess, since they are fighting the Kurds, that would make Salah al-Din a "crusader" then!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Corbyn wouldn't advocate bombing Syria in any circumstance, but other opinions are also divided.

    A number of Con, UKIP, LD and SNP people are also very sceptical of the proposed bombing. To many of us it is an unplanned foreign entanglement without clear goals, without well defined military objectives and without a post bombing plan.

    JC wouldn't advocate action against Da'esh in Iraq, either, but we're already doing that - and that being the case, it's absurd to not also act against them in Syria. Not least because Da'esh don't recognise the border.
    I would agree with that. It seems that Syria is the only country that we are not permitted to bomb.

    It would be worth discussing what we aim to achieve though. What are the objectives of bombing?
    One of the major aims is standing by an ally who has asked us for our help.

    Otherwise, the next time we need their support, they won't be there.

    The primary objective is to degrade Daesh's military capabilities, to make them less attractive to new combatants and to provide support for the local troops on the group. Long term the solution for Syria needs to be political rather than military but we need to keep Daesh off balance in the interim.

    Of course you need to concentrate on the moles and sympathisers in our own country, but it's not an either or case. You can't cure a vector borne infection without draining the swamp as part of the process.
    The 7/7 bombers, and the Paris bombers were all home grown. The swamp that needs draining is mostly at home.

    I am not opposed to bombing Raqqa, and I would be quite explicit that civilian casualties are to be expected if the bombing is to be effective. Any action in Syria though is likely to be a distraction from the counter-insurgency required at home.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    *honks and claps like a seal*

    Scott_P said:

    @LBC: Diane Abbott tells @StigAbell front-bench colleagues who vote for Syria strikes should quit https://t.co/Pt68qcpeQ4 https://t.co/imBTJ5PvF5

    :lol:

    On topic.......Can I get NHS support for popcorn addiction?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Looks like Labour will have a "free" vote on Syria.

    No one believes more firmly than Comrade Corbyn that all MPs are equal. He would be only too happy to let you make your decisions for yourselves. But sometimes you might make the wrong decisions, comrades, and then where should we be?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321


    JC wouldn't advocate action against Da'esh in Iraq, either, but we're already doing that - and that being the case, it's absurd to not also act against them in Syria. Not least because Da'esh don't recognise the border.

    A major difference is that in Iraq we are operating at the request of the Government, while in Syria we'd be operating against the wish of the Government and with a secondary declared objective of bringing the Government down. And, what's more, we don't have a clear alternative leadership to point to - we just want to unseat the Government and then those 70000 militiamen in up to 100 different factions will somehow sort it out.

    We've been here before. I supported it then. And it doesn't work out well. We should learn from experience.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.



    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Seven days a week full coverage is a great goal. But don't try to achieve it by blackmail. If the resources exist then do it, but not necessarily by demanding unreasonable sacrifices.
    Expand the resources if necessary, if you can.
    Of course diluting the homeopathy budget would vastly expand its efficacy!

    The governments "seven day NHS" plans are very ambiguous. They constantly muddle up emergency services and elective services. Every doctor that I know wants to improve the former, but the latter is quite a different beast.

    Politicians (and voters) are also very ambiguous about what is nessecary to deliver high quality 7 day emergency services. For example in order to run and staff seven day stroke services with instant access to MRI imaging and interventional radiology these services need to be organised on the basis of populations of well over a million. The same goes for many similar services, but means the closure or downgrading to minor injury units of many smaller casualty units. Try suggesting to the people of Northampton or Kettering that their hospitals should no longer take acute admissions and that their ambulances should go to Oxford or Leicester. That is before you get into geographical places like Cornwall or Isle of Wight, where arguably the right level of services are just not possible. 7 day services of nationally high quality have a lot of implications, including hospital closures and consolidation.

    Alliance Medical would be absolutely delighted to run a 7 day a week MRI service.

    Those trusts who, for political reasons, decide to run everything in house rather than look for the most efficient provider of ancillary services may be less keen.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Corbyn looks to have borrowed Watsons suit..the same food stain patterns..
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Can anyone actually tell me why it's so absurd not to be bombing Syria as opposed to doing more in Iraq and correspondly others doing more in Syria?

    In practice you may well end up doing that, but you should have the freedom to use the most appropriate capabilities across the entire field of conflict
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    There are no tanks in Baghdad

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn 'Has not been a terrible few weeks for Labour at all, party membership has gone up, the government has retreated on tax credits and police cuts'

    Not yet anyway
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,910
    Continuing off-topic:

    In the past on here I've expressed reservations about why 'defeating' ISIS in Syria and Iraq will not cure the problem. Islamic groups anywhere around the world can affiliate themselves with ISIS or al Qaeda, but in the case of the former they have a strict set of conditions to meet, and have to give a pledge of allegiance, before they can join. Yet many are.

    I've found this Economist article that shows the countries where groups have pledged to ISIS. Whilst some of these groups might be small, one of the aims of a defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq should be to stop fighters and weapons just slipping out of those countries to (further) destabilise others.

    At the end of the day, perhaps the best way of securing long-term peace is increased economic prosperity in these countries, including small-scale and large-scale bribery.

    http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21656690-islamic-state-making-itself-felt-ever-more-countries-how-much-influence
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Shouldn't this be above Party politics - deciding "the right thing to do"?

    There is nothing in Corbyn's history to suggest he's persuadable - which is fine and principled, but a little complicated if you are the leader of a party...
    If you want it to remain above party politics, don't read the last several threads.

    Or the one on Wednesday as that nice Mr Cameron unaccountably wants the debate the day before the by-election.
    You think the government should delay the vote - while our allies are asking for our help - to spare the blushes of a dis functional Labour leadership?
    A couple of days will make such a difference , how will they manage without our two planes.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like Labour will have a "free" vote on Syria.

    No one believes more firmly than Comrade Corbyn that all MPs are equal. He would be only too happy to let you make your decisions for yourselves. But sometimes you might make the wrong decisions, comrades, and then where should we be?

    I don't think that's Jeremy Corbyn's preference. He sees the party as paramount and his job is to embody it. If the party's will is to oppose action in Syria, MPs should fall into line. The party, of course, comprises the membership.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Yeah, cos private healthcare companies are never led by producer interests. They are famous for their altruism and public spiritedness.
    They are led by shareholder interests, regulated by contract and intangible concerns such as reputation. In general, though, they want to give the required minimum service at the lowest possible cost (although there are certainly some that position themselves as a higher quality of care/higher price service offering).

    The NHS is not perfect - but too often the BMA and the unions come over as opposed to any change rather than thinking about what is in the best interests of patients. Of course, as individual actors, they are just doing what they are supposed to do, but when they have effective control of the future of the organisation this is - by definition - producter capture

    Depends who the private healthcare company is and what service they provide. WPA for example are not for profit, so are several others.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: MPs and shadow cabinet will "have to listen" to party members says Corbyn. Mob rule now governs one of our great governing parties

    The useless halfwits are there to represent the mob as this moron puts it , not their personal opinions.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Charles said:

    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Seven days a week full coverage is a great goal. But don't try to achieve it by blackmail. If the resources exist then do it, but not necessarily by demanding unreasonable sacrifices.
    Expand the resources if necessary, if you can.
    Fundamentally - AIUI - the doctors have, on average been offered a decent pay rise in order to work a shift pattern including weekends rather than on a Monday-Friday basis. At the same time, in order to make it affordable (and also because it doesn't make any sense in a 7-day shift pattern) additional payments for weekend/evening work are being removed. Clearly this will negatively impact the earnings of some doctors whose work is heavily weighted towards weekend/evening slots.

    Asking people to work a 7-day week shift pattern in return for a pay rise is not "demanding unreasonable sacrifices". Normal people doing it all the time. Some idiots (like me) work weekends without any pay increase despite the fact that my contract says 9-6 Monday to Friday.
    Thanks Charles.
    I think many/most people might disagree about working 7 day patterns. I would very much like to read the docs' stated detailed views.
    I too am an idiot. Somewhat older than you, I still plug away, but I am wholly in charge of my focuses. Money has always been unimportant.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.


    Fundamentally - AIUI - the doctors have, on average been offered a decent pay rise in order to work a shift pattern including weekends rather than on a Monday-Friday basis. At the same time, in order to make it affordable (and also because it doesn't make any sense in a 7-day shift pattern) additional payments for weekend/evening work are being removed. Clearly this will negatively impact the earnings of some doctors whose work is heavily weighted towards weekend/evening slots.

    Asking people to work a 7-day week shift pattern in return for a pay rise is not "demanding unreasonable sacrifices". Normal people doing it all the time. Some idiots (like me) work weekends without any pay increase despite the fact that my contract says 9-6 Monday to Friday.
    The perversity of the new contract is that the ones with the biggest paycut (and it is a paycut of 20% for many) are those that work weekends in hardpressed areas like obstetrics, Emergency depts and paediatrics while those working office hours in pathology or dermatology get a pay rise!

    But there are many other issues, including lack of protection of training time (these are junior doctors working towards postgraduate qualifications) and removal of monitoring of working hours.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    ISIS being pushed back in Syria

    http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.688856

    ~إن حزب الله هم الغالبون
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    If I was Corbyn , I would whip the vote on Syria, show some leadership.

    The shadow cabinet members that do not support him resign and go back to the backbenches like Robin Cook did.

    A completley new shadow cabinet will be formed from MP`s that did support his view over Syria.



  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321



    Of course diluting the homeopathy budget would vastly expand its efficacy!


    lol!
  • Options
    Charles said:

    OchEye said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    Almost as good as the PM who can't take his party with him in a matter of War, but has to rely on opposition for support.
    I would be very disappointed in any MP who voted on a decision to go to war based on party political considerations
    EdM already set the precedent on this.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,910

    The 7/7 bombers, and the Paris bombers were all home grown. The swamp that needs draining is mostly at home.

    I am not opposed to bombing Raqqa, and I would be quite explicit that civilian casualties are to be expected if the bombing is to be effective. Any action in Syria though is likely to be a distraction from the counter-insurgency required at home.

    That swamp is being swampified by literature and materials from AlQ/ISIS that are readily obtained off the Internet. You do not need to go to a mosque to be 'converted' to IS's view. Harming their operations might have the effect of harming their insidious PR campaign to convert disaffected Muslims and others.

    People love a success. ISIS fleeing Iraq / Syria will not necessarily destroy them, but it will hurt their PR.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    Best we do nowt about owt...safer that way...until the next plane,train,bus,disintegrates...along with all the passengers...then we can all have a hand wringing fest....

    Yes it happens often does it not
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    OchEye said:

    felix said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Taking military action is not about party politics it's about trying to achieve a consesnus across the house. DC has gone to great lengths to achieve this - take the blinkers off.
    Well put. When previous Tory rebel Dr Sarah Wollaston is voting for action on Syria this time, I'm pretty sure Cameron has the votes in the bag. It's about sending a message to ISIS that we have the resolve to take them on. The bigger the vote, the greater our resolve.

    The people playing party politics are those in Labour, desperate not to offend their core Muslim vote - meaning even the most base medieval psychopaths have to be handled with kid gloves.
    I listened to the whole debate - it was clear how Cameron had come to listen and persuade - and how Corbyn was unpersuadable - his 13 questions - most of which Cameron had already answered - were designed to simply result in nothing happening. He wills the end - but lacks the moral courage to propose the means.....
    And you would be quite happy to commit yourself and your family to go and fight Da'esh? Or would you trust our elected politicians to do the right thing? Erm! Let me see now. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all worked out rather well, don't you think?
    I guess you'd have argued that the carnage of 1914 was a good reason to do nothing in 1939?
    LOL, are you that barking you can compare sending two planes to Syria with the Great War
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2015
    Predictions

    Labour offer a free vote, which Cameron wins.
    Labour squeak Oldham
    No member of the shadow cabinet resigns
    Corbyn remains in post, and those members of the PLP not deselected by Momentum get hammered by the voters

    EDIT: Can't wait to see how Ed votes
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130

    @JohnRentoul: My best estimate of how MPs will vote on Syria this week @IndyOnSunday Thx @HenrikPetters https://t.co/7M6uPuLzZL

    Cameron will be a bit disappointed at that. It is very unusual for Britain to commit its forces to combat without cross party support. In fact I can't recall the last time it happened. I think that Cameron is very conscious of that.

    It is not just about winning the vote (which he will, easily), its about giving the message to our forces and our enemies that we stand united. Unfortunately, we don't.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    *honks and claps like a seal*

    Scott_P said:

    @LBC: Diane Abbott tells @StigAbell front-bench colleagues who vote for Syria strikes should quit https://t.co/Pt68qcpeQ4 https://t.co/imBTJ5PvF5

    That must be waaacist or classist or something ;)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    OchEye said:

    felix said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Taking military action is not about party politics it's about trying to achieve a consesnus across the house. DC has gone to great lengths to achieve this - take the blinkers off.
    Well put. When previous Tory rebel Dr Sarah Wollaston is voting for action on Syria this time, I'm pretty sure Cameron has the votes in the bag. It's about sending a message to ISIS that we have the resolve to take them on. The bigger the vote, the greater our resolve.

    The people playing party politics are those in Labour, desperate not to offend their core Muslim vote - meaning even the most base medieval psychopaths have to be handled with kid gloves.
    I listened to the whole debate - it was clear how Cameron had come to listen and persuade - and how Corbyn was unpersuadable - his 13 questions - most of which Cameron had already answered - were designed to simply result in nothing happening. He wills the end - but lacks the moral courage to propose the means.....
    And you would be quite happy to commit yourself and your family to go and fight Da'esh? Or would you trust our elected politicians to do the right thing? Erm! Let me see now. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all worked out rather well, don't you think?
    Don't be silly, it is all Tory armchair warriors we see on here, they would not fight their way out of a paper poke. They want others to do it for them.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Corbyn wouldn't advocate bombing Syria in any circumstance, but other opinions are also divided.

    A number of Con, UKIP, LD and SNP people are also very sceptical of the proposed bombing. To many of us it is an unplanned foreign entanglement without clear goals, without well defined military objectives and without a post bombing plan.

    JC wouldn't advocate action against Da'esh in Iraq, either, but we're already doing that - and that being the case, it's absurd to not also act against them in Syria. Not least because Da'esh don't recognise the border.
    I would agree with that. It seems that Syria is the only country that we are not permitted to bomb.

    It would be worth discussing what we aim to achieve though. What are the objectives of bombing?
    One of the major aims is standing by an ally who has asked us for our help.

    Otherwise, the next time we need their support, they won't be there.

    The primary objective is to degrade Daesh's military capabilities, to make them less attractive to new combatants and to provide support for the local troops on the group. Long term the solution for Syria needs to be political rather than military but we need to keep Daesh off balance in the interim.

    Of course you need to concentrate on the moles and sympathisers in our own country, but it's not an either or case. You can't cure a vector borne infection without draining the swamp as part of the process.
    The 7/7 bombers, and the Paris bombers were all home grown. The swamp that needs draining is mostly at home.

    I am not opposed to bombing Raqqa, and I would be quite explicit that civilian casualties are to be expected if the bombing is to be effective. Any action in Syria though is likely to be a distraction from the counter-insurgency required at home.
    They draw their inspiration from abroad.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    Someone from the ALF will be ticking me off shortly. Or perhaps exhuming my mother.
    Charles said:

    *honks and claps like a seal*

    Scott_P said:

    @LBC: Diane Abbott tells @StigAbell front-bench colleagues who vote for Syria strikes should quit https://t.co/Pt68qcpeQ4 https://t.co/imBTJ5PvF5

    That must be waaacist or classist or something ;)
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited November 2015
    MG .. Best if it didn't happen at all...low frequency is still not acceptable..but fear not.. Ayrshire is way down the ISIS hit list..meanwhile the London Underground and its millions of daily passengers is still a high priority target...see what I mean.
  • Options

    @JohnRentoul: My best estimate of how MPs will vote on Syria this week @IndyOnSunday Thx @HenrikPetters https://t.co/7M6uPuLzZL

    That implies that DC doesn't need Labour votes. If the NI unionists are on board that's a notional majority of 37 so 19 Tory rebels needed to swing it.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2015
    Charles said:

    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.



    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Seven days a week full coverage is a great goal. But don't try to achieve it by blackmail. If the resources exist then do it, but not necessarily by demanding unreasonable sacrifices.
    Expand the resources if necessary, if you can.
    Of course diluting the homeopathy budget would vastly expand its efficacy!

    The governments "seven day NHS" plans are very ambiguous. They constantly muddle up emergency services and elective services. Every doctor that I know wants to improve the former, but the latter is quite a different beast.

    Politicians (and voters) are also very ambiguous about what is nessecary to deliver high quality 7 day emergency services. For example in order to run and staff seven day stroke services with instant access to MRI imaging

    Alliance Medical would be absolutely delighted to run a 7 day a week MRI service.

    Those trusts who, for political reasons, decide to run everything in house rather than look for the most efficient provider of ancillary services may be less keen.
    Would they run a 7 day 24 hour service not just taking pictures but providing Consultant Interventional Radiologist support including ITU beds as needed? Simply taking a few snaps is not enough. Any such system needs to be properly supported. Or are you expecting the GP to interpret the image, cannulate the middle cerebral artery and inject thrombolytics in his surgery?

    *Alliance have some good lobbyists. They were recently awarded a NHS contract to operate a scanner bought by charitable donations, despite the NHS Trust saying they could do it in house £ 7 million cheaper

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/Stoke-NHS-hospital-scanning-contract-won-private/story-25444112-detail/story.html
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Toms said:

    Charles said:

    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Fundamentally - AIUI - the doctors have, on average been offered a decent pay rise in order to work a shift pattern including weekends rather than on a Monday-Friday basis. At the same time, in order to make it affordable (and also because it doesn't make any sense in a 7-day shift pattern) additional payments for weekend/evening work are being removed. Clearly this will negatively impact the earnings of some doctors whose work is heavily weighted towards weekend/evening slots.
    Thanks Charles.
    I think many/most people might disagree about working 7 day patterns. I would very much like to read the docs' stated detailed views.
    I too am an idiot. Somewhat older than you, I still plug away, but I am wholly in charge of my focuses. Money has always been unimportant.
    As far as I understand it they just get a shift pattern which includes weekends, which presumably means they could get some time off in the week if they are required to work at a weekend. They also get a pay rise, if you work weekends beyond your contracted hours you also normally get overtime pay
  • Options
    Corbyn's problem is that if you spend 30 years sharing platforms with apologists for terrorism and murder, and you surround yourself with them as leader, then you are never going to get a hearing, even when you may have a point.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Moses_ said:

    Can anyone actually tell me why it's so absurd not to be bombing Syria as opposed to doing more in Iraq and correspondly others doing more in Syria?

    I answered this when you asked it the other day. The main reason being we have capabilities that would be useful, and which cannot necessarily be easily replicated by the other forces.
    The other factor is that our planes are based in Cyprus. It takes several hours and refuelling to attack a target in Iraq. Mobile targets have often moved by that point. We would be more effective bombing Syria than Iraq, crowded airspace permitting!
    I would stick to doctoring.

    Doing a "rooftop hop" they could be in downtown Bagdad or Mosul in little under an hour. Less if they go supersonic. No refuelling required. Faster on the way back as they would be lighter of course :wink:
    Smug smartarse, hopefully Fox gets you in his operating theatre some day and expains military tactics to you
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited November 2015
    Didn;'t Fallon say the PM does not have the votes yet?

    That implies there are plenty of tory waverers.

    The labour implosion has masked what has been an extremely bad couple of weeks for the current tory leadership.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Seven days a week full coverage is a great goal. But don't try to achieve it by blackmail. If the resources exist then do it, but not necessarily by demanding unreasonable sacrifices.
    Expand the resources if necessary, if you can.
    Fundamentally - AIUI - the doctors have, on average been offered a decent pay rise in order to work a shift pattern including weekends rather than on a Monday-Friday basis. At the same time, in order to make it affordable (and also because it doesn't make any sense in a 7-day shift pattern) additional payments for weekend/evening work are being removed. Clearly this will negatively impact the earnings of some doctors whose work is heavily weighted towards weekend/evening slots.

    Asking people to work a 7-day week shift pattern in return for a pay rise is not "demanding unreasonable sacrifices". Normal people doing it all the time. Some idiots (like me) work weekends without any pay increase despite the fact that my contract says 9-6 Monday to Friday.

    I work beyond my contracted hours, but I have a stake in the business.

  • Options

    Corbyn's problem is that if you spend 30 years sharing platforms with apologists for terrorism and murder, and you surround yourself with them as leader, then you are never going to get a hearing, even when you may have a point.

    Page 9 of this poll shows his problem:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lkwxs2wst7/InternalResults_151124_Syria_w.pdf

    It's not just that he has the same overall low trust ratings as Vladimir Putin in his decision-making on this subject. Fully 50% of the population have no trust at all in him on this subject, including 27% of 2015 Labour voters.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Stewart Hosie from the SNP was very competent on Marr this morning.
    Should see more of him on our tv screens.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Charles said:

    Toms said:

    felix said:

    It was several years before Gove was moved from Education, and it may well be the same with Health.

    Hunt was chosen to replace Lansley because of his rather more smooth style and also his very good friends in the media in general and the Murdoch press in particular.

    Hunt has been very poor at his handling of the Junior Doctors dispute, alternately bullying and then making new information public in press releases rather than to the BMA. He was brought in to spin rather than to fix anything. To unite 98% of juniors in a strike requires a very poor negotiator (the other 2% were mostly for industrial action short of strike).

    Incidentally, Mr Hunt has never been in a hospital at a weekend himself to see what the issues really are or to talk to the coalface workers:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-hunt-under-pressure-over-6918825

    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.
    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Seven days a week full coverage is a great goal. But don't try to achieve it by blackmail. If the resources exist then do it, but not necessarily by demanding unreasonable sacrifices.
    Expand the resources if necessary, if you can.
    Fundamentally - AIUI - the doctors have, on average been offered a decent pay rise in order to work a shift pattern including weekends rather than on a Monday-Friday basis. At the same time, in order to make it affordable (and also because it doesn't make any sense in a 7-day shift pattern) additional payments for weekend/evening work are being removed. Clearly this will negatively impact the earnings of some doctors whose work is heavily weighted towards weekend/evening slots.

    Asking people to work a 7-day week shift pattern in return for a pay rise is not "demanding unreasonable sacrifices". Normal people doing it all the time. Some idiots (like me) work weekends without any pay increase despite the fact that my contract says 9-6 Monday to Friday.
    Yes and without the choice or the pay rise, doctors have backed a loser here. Pampered Prima Donna's who obviously have no reality of life outside their bubble.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Corbyn's problem is that if you spend 30 years sharing platforms with apologists for terrorism and murder, and you surround yourself with them as leader, then you are never going to get a hearing, even when you may have a point.

    Yes I agree.
    However he was very good on Marr this morning.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Second! On goal difference.

    Very good days to be a Fox indeed.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Yorkcity Corbyn was slightly better on Marr..which makes him look good..but the reality is he still spouts bullshine..
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811
    Yorkcity said:

    If I was Corbyn , I would whip the vote on Syria, show some leadership.

    The shadow cabinet members that do not support him resign and go back to the backbenches like Robin Cook did.

    A completley new shadow cabinet will be formed from MP`s that did support his view over Syria.

    Agree, time he sorted out these whingers, otherwise he might as well give up now. get an ultimatim out and sack the next one that goes against him in public. He is there to lead and if they don't support him then sack them.

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    malcolmg said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Shouldn't this be above Party politics - deciding "the right thing to do"?

    There is nothing in Corbyn's history to suggest he's persuadable - which is fine and principled, but a little complicated if you are the leader of a party...
    If you want it to remain above party politics, don't read the last several threads.

    Or the one on Wednesday as that nice Mr Cameron unaccountably wants the debate the day before the by-election.
    You think the government should delay the vote - while our allies are asking for our help - to spare the blushes of a dis functional Labour leadership?
    A couple of days will make such a difference , how will they manage without our two planes.
    Never saw you as a Labour fanboy!

    That you consider your expertise superior to the French Defence Minister comes as no surprise.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If Cameron can't marshall his own MPs on this, then that is a surely a very serious blow to his authority.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    MG .. Best if it didn't happen at all...low frequency is still not acceptable..but fear not.. Ayrshire is way down the ISIS hit list..meanwhile the London Underground and its millions of daily passengers is still a high priority target...see what I mean.

    Very true but I am not convinced our politicians do anything to help, they seem to make matters worse with their poor decisions. The knee jerk every time , never a decent long term plan.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,310
    malcolmg said:

    OchEye said:

    felix said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Taking military action is not about party politics it's about trying to achieve a consesnus across the house. DC has gone to great lengths to achieve this - take the blinkers off.
    Well put. When previous Tory rebel Dr Sarah Wollaston is voting for action on Syria this time, I'm pretty sure Cameron has the votes in the bag. It's about sending a message to ISIS that we have the resolve to take them on. The bigger the vote, the greater our resolve.

    The people playing party politics are those in Labour, desperate not to offend their core Muslim vote - meaning even the most base medieval psychopaths have to be handled with kid gloves.
    I listened to the whole debate - it was clear how Cameron had come to listen and persuade - and how Corbyn was unpersuadable - his 13 questions - most of which Cameron had already answered - were designed to simply result in nothing happening. He wills the end - but lacks the moral courage to propose the means.....
    And you would be quite happy to commit yourself and your family to go and fight Da'esh? Or would you trust our elected politicians to do the right thing? Erm! Let me see now. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all worked out rather well, don't you think?
    Don't be silly, it is all Tory armchair warriors we see on here, they would not fight their way out of a paper poke. They want others to do it for them.
    They're just Cameronites. It Cameron was for staying out, so would they be.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Corbyn wouldn't advocate bombing Syria in any circumstance, but other opinions are also divided.

    A number of Con, UKIP, LD and SNP people are also very sceptical of the proposed bombing. To many of us it is an unplanned foreign entanglement without clear goals, without well defined military objectives and without a post bombing plan.

    JC wouldn't advocate action against Da'esh in Iraq, either, but we're already doing that - and that being the case, it's absurd to not also act against them in Syria. Not least because Da'esh don't recognise the border.
    I would agree with that. It seems that Syria is the only country that we are not permitted to bomb.

    It would be worth discussing what we aim to achieve though. What are the objectives of bombing?
    One of the major aims is standing by an ally who has asked us for our help.

    Otherwise, the next time we need their support, they won't be there.

    The primary objective is to degrade Daesh's military capabilities, to make them less attractive to new combatants and to provide support for the local troops on the group. Long term the solution for Syria needs to be political rather than military but we need to keep Daesh off balance in the interim.

    Of course you need to concentrate on the moles and sympathisers in our own country, but it's not an either or case. You can't cure a vector borne infection without draining the swamp as part of the process.
    The 7/7 bombers, and the Paris bombers were all home grown. The swamp that needs draining is mostly at home.

    I am not opposed to bombing Raqqa, and I would be quite explicit that civilian casualties are to be expected if the bombing is to be effective. Any action in Syria though is likely to be a distraction from the counter-insurgency required at home.
    They draw their inspiration from abroad.
    Which is mostly from Saudi and the Gulf states...but those are our allies...murky waters indeed.

    Off now for a bit..
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    Yorkcity said:

    If I was Corbyn , I would whip the vote on Syria, show some leadership.

    The shadow cabinet members that do not support him resign and go back to the backbenches like Robin Cook did.

    A completley new shadow cabinet will be formed from MP`s that did support his view over Syria.



    Will there be enough of them? He had trouble filling a shadow cabinet the first time.
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    Speaking of The Hunt - BBC1 9pm tonight :)
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    There is nothing wrong with Corbyn offering a free vote to backbenchers. But the Shadow Cabinet should be expected to put forward a common position. One has to know where a Government and/or Government in waiting stand on key issues.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    3Q Maybe he could ask some members of the party to be Laymen Ministers..as a 3 quidder you could be eligible
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    taffys said:

    If Cameron can't marshall his own MPs on this, then that is a surely a very serious blow to his authority.

    Did you see the John Rentoul graphic posted earlier?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The first time he had to pretend to appt a rounded ShCab to be all *inclusive and collegiate* - now he doesn't need to bother.

    Any old Corbynite will do since the members/Ken etc make all the decision that he wants them to.

    Yorkcity said:

    If I was Corbyn , I would whip the vote on Syria, show some leadership.

    The shadow cabinet members that do not support him resign and go back to the backbenches like Robin Cook did.

    A completley new shadow cabinet will be formed from MP`s that did support his view over Syria.



    Will there be enough of them? He had trouble filling a shadow cabinet the first time.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,811

    malcolmg said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Shouldn't this be above Party politics - deciding "the right thing to do"?

    There is nothing in Corbyn's history to suggest he's persuadable - which is fine and principled, but a little complicated if you are the leader of a party...
    If you want it to remain above party politics, don't read the last several threads.

    Or the one on Wednesday as that nice Mr Cameron unaccountably wants the debate the day before the by-election.
    You think the government should delay the vote - while our allies are asking for our help - to spare the blushes of a dis functional Labour leadership?
    A couple of days will make such a difference , how will they manage without our two planes.
    Never saw you as a Labour fanboy!

    That you consider your expertise superior to the French Defence Minister comes as no surprise.
    I have no time for Labour but equally have no time for Cameron. The French Defence Minister is a complete failure , he has defended nothing and amazing the halfwit is still in place, along with his equivalents in security services , anti -terror etc.
    Following Cameron's half witted intervention so he can get a few photo opportunities is not a good idea.
    If they come up with a real plan then I am prepared to listen, but given the moonshine he came out with on Wednesday, no-one would buy a used car from this snake oil salesman.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Yorkcity Corbyn was slightly better on Marr..which makes him look good..but the reality is he still spouts bullshine..''

    It is bullshine that a significant minority of conservative back benchers apparently agree with.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    taffys said:

    ''Yorkcity Corbyn was slightly better on Marr..which makes him look good..but the reality is he still spouts bullshine..''

    It is bullshine that a significant minority of conservative back benchers apparently agree with.

    While an even more significant minority of Labour backbenchers agree with Cameron
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    *significant minority* ? About a dozen?
    taffys said:

    ''Yorkcity Corbyn was slightly better on Marr..which makes him look good..but the reality is he still spouts bullshine..''

    It is bullshine that a significant minority of conservative back benchers apparently agree with.

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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Charles said:

    Toms said:

    felix said:



    Ah NHS staff commenting on the Junior doctors' dispute. All about the producers, forget the clients.

    The simple answer, of course, is to abolish the NHS PDQ.

    Or have I missed something?

    Certainly they should privatise homoeopathy PDQ.

    It is wrong to try to twist the docs' arms because they follow Hippocratic principles.
    They have followed a long & challenging course of study, theoretical & practical, far longer that most of us. They are saving lives and promoting health. What are most of us doing?

    Seven days a week full coverage is a great goal. But don't try to achieve it by blackmail. If the resources exist then do it, but not necessarily by demanding unreasonable sacrifices.
    Expand the resources if necessary, if you can.
    Of course diluting the homeopathy budget would vastly expand its efficacy!

    The governments "seven day NHS" plans are very ambiguous. They constantly muddle up emergency services and elective services. Every doctor that I know wants to improve the former, but the latter is quite a different beast.

    Politicians (and voters) are also very ambiguous about what is nessecary to deliver high quality 7 day emergency services. For example in order to run and staff seven day stroke services with instant access to MRI imaging

    Alliance Medical would be absolutely delighted to run a 7 day a week MRI service.

    Those trusts who, for political reasons, decide to run everything in house rather than look for the most efficient provider of ancillary services may be less keen.
    Would they run a 7 day 24 hour service not just taking pictures but providing Consultant Interventional Radiologist support including ITU beds as needed? Simply taking a few snaps is not enough. Any such system needs to be properly supported. Or are you expecting the GP to interpret the image, cannulate the middle cerebral artery and inject thrombolytics in his surgery?

    *Alliance have some good lobbyists. They were recently awarded a NHS contract to operate a scanner bought by charitable donations, despite the NHS Trust saying they could do it in house £ 7 million cheaper

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/Stoke-NHS-hospital-scanning-contract-won-private/story-25444112-detail/story.html
    That's outrageous - I donated a tenner towards that scanner.

    It wasn't supposed to be an asset which others milk a profit from.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''id you see the John Rentoul graphic posted earlier?''

    No, but I read a quote of Fallon saying the government did not have the votes yet.
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    Some local election data for Oldham West - this is perhaps a more relevant comparison than the general election because of the low turnout expected.

    2008 - when Conservatives led Labour 20% nationally:

    Lab 11466 41%
    LD 8127 29%
    Con 6221 22%
    Oth 1995 7%

    2012 - the seats which will be up for election next May:

    Lab 16422 66%
    Con 3829 15%
    LD 3307 13%
    Oth 1431 6%

    The two wards with by far the highest turnout in each year were the heavily Asian Coldhurst and Wernath - postal votes are so convenient for 'Community Leaders' and Labour.

    There were no UKIP candidates in either year.


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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    Fallon could have meant several things there - not enough cross Party support for example.
    taffys said:

    ''id you see the John Rentoul graphic posted earlier?''

    No, but I read a quote of Fallon saying the government did not have the votes yet.

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    alex. said:

    There is nothing wrong with Corbyn offering a free vote to backbenchers. But the Shadow Cabinet should be expected to put forward a common position. One has to know where a Government and/or Government in waiting stand on key issues.

    In any meaningful sense, the shadow cabinet is not a government in waiting.

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2015
    alex. said:

    There is nothing wrong with Corbyn offering a free vote to backbenchers. But the Shadow Cabinet should be expected to put forward a common position. One has to know where a Government and/or Government in waiting stand on key issues.

    There is some merit in what you say, which of course would make Hilary Benn’s position untenable. – Personally however, I think the vote on Syria, as with abortion IMO, should be based on an individual MP’s conscience and not whipped on party lines and on this occasion at least, should be extended to front bench MPs.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    One of the major differences with Iraq is that this time we have a clear, unambiguous and unanimous UN security resolution supporting the action. My understanding is that the Assad regime was supportive of the resolution.

    We have 2 problems.

    One is the legacy of Blair and the lies he told the HoC about Iraq. Before Blair no one would have contemplated a PM lying about something so important. Now, everything Cameron says, about our near misses of a Paris scenario for example, is clouded with suspicion and doubt. I for one will never forgive Blair for what he did.

    The second problem is that we have seen in Iraq, Afghanistan and, to an extent, Libya is that attacking those who hate and want to attack us is no guarantee that they will be replaced by people who feel more kindly towards us, almost the reverse in fact. This has led to a defeatism and war weariness that makes commitment difficult and feeds the Blairite suspicions.

    Despite this I think we need to act. Firstly, because a close ally has been attacked and asked us to help. Secondly, because we need to show our enemies we still can. Thirdly, because the message must be given, as it was to Al Qaeda after 9/11 that attacks on the west like Paris carry a terrible price. Fourthly, because there will be no peace in Syria or Iraq whilst Daesh remain. There may not be peace when they are defeated either but there will at least be a chance of peace. If the refugees are ever to go home we must work for that chance.

    I could go on but if I was in the Commons I would support this with a heavy heart, a sense of realism about what can be achieved and a grim determination to strike at those who would strike at us and our friends.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    @ foxinsoxuk
    "Would they run a 7 day 24 hour service not just taking pictures but providing Consultant Interventional Radiologist support including ITU beds as needed? Simply taking a few snaps is not enough. Any such system needs to be properly supported. Or are you expecting the GP to interpret the image, cannulate the middle cerebral artery and inject thrombolytics in his surgery?

    *Alliance have some good lobbyists. They were recently awarded a NHS contract to operate a scanner bought by charitable donations, despite the NHS Trust saying they could do it in house £ 7 million cheaper

    http://m.stokesentinel.co.uk/Stoke-NHS-hospital-scanning-contract-won-private/story-25444112-detail/story.html "




    "Ask the fellows who cut the hay"

    and maybe not bureaucrats, who often quite like putting simple numbers to things they don't understand.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    malcolmg said:

    OchEye said:

    felix said:

    It's hard to believe that after Shapp's resignation on such a big story, that most newspapers chose to lead on Labour's woes.

    In fairness, one is a spectacularly nasty (if true) story among a tiny group of people, while the other is about someone who would be PM and cant take his party with him in a matter of war.....
    If the Prime Minister could rely on his own party, it would not need Labour votes to pass.
    Taking military action is not about party politics it's about trying to achieve a consesnus across the house. DC has gone to great lengths to achieve this - take the blinkers off.
    Well put. When previous Tory rebel Dr Sarah Wollaston is voting for action on Syria this time, I'm pretty sure Cameron has the votes in the bag. It's about sending a message to ISIS that we have the resolve to take them on. The bigger the vote, the greater our resolve.

    The people playing party politics are those in Labour, desperate not to offend their core Muslim vote - meaning even the most base medieval psychopaths have to be handled with kid gloves.
    I listened to the whole debate - it was clear how Cameron had come to listen and persuade - and how Corbyn was unpersuadable - his 13 questions - most of which Cameron had already answered - were designed to simply result in nothing happening. He wills the end - but lacks the moral courage to propose the means.....
    And you would be quite happy to commit yourself and your family to go and fight Da'esh? Or would you trust our elected politicians to do the right thing? Erm! Let me see now. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya all worked out rather well, don't you think?
    I guess you'd have argued that the carnage of 1914 was a good reason to do nothing in 1939?
    LOL, are you that barking you can compare sending two planes to Syria with the Great War
    Good Morning, Mr. G., actually a fair number of good and honourable men who had the best interests of the UK at heart thought that the carnage of 1914-18 war was a very good reason for not joining in in 1939. I am still not sure they were wrong.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited November 2015
    ''Fallon could have meant several things there - not enough cross Party support for example.''

    Sorry but I do not understand the cross party support argument. The tories have a majority and they have the unionists.

    It is surely therefore irrelevant what labour do to a resolution passing. If labour don;t want to support, that is their affair.

    Let the voters draw their own conclusions.

    Unless of course, Cameron is suspicious of his own MPs.
This discussion has been closed.