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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first hand experiences of a Labour canvasser in Oldham

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first hand experiences of a Labour canvasser in Oldham

The experiences of a Labour canvasser in Oldham pic.twitter.com/ukqxoltSGl

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    edited November 2015
    Thirst?

    Darned, I'm good. ;)

    On-topic: it'll be interesting to see how many gaffes Labour can rack up before Thursday.

    There is always a small possibility that some of the good people of Oldham West and Royton will be voting for a Labour party sans leader.
  • The big question is whether those slamming doors are going to abstain or vote UKIP.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2015
    Still 2nd on goal difference!

    Edit: blast! Antifrank beat me to it. Still Champions League though!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    richardDodd Posts: 4,431
    6:34PM
    Mike K..ISIS are renowned for their entertainment industry..lots of vids showing the very latest rapes of kids, hangings, beheadings, stonings, burning people alive, the comic relief comes in the sharp short pistol shot to the back of the head..apparently they cant get enough of .
    ---------

    I know all that; but perhaps you should convince @Omnium of these facts.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Miss Congeniality.

    The comments from Corbynistas under her tweets are most miffed = everyone loves us and Jezza!!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    All very interesting but from the betting perspective, how many are actually putting money on Labour losing? Head versus heart time; how many on here expect Labour to lose?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Nope - small win, about 1500 maj

    All very interesting but from the betting perspective, how many are actually putting money on Labour losing? Head versus heart time; how many on here expect Labour to lose?

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,667

    Nope - small win, about 1500 maj

    All very interesting but from the betting perspective, how many are actually putting money on Labour losing? Head versus heart time; how many on here expect Labour to lose?

    Agree. Labour by two to three thousand on a tiny turnout.
  • Corbynism sweeping the nation...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Fpt:

    I sense the mood is that we should bomb ISIS/ISIL/Daesh, call them what you will, until they are degraded beyond the point of being able to attract recruits or mount operations on our streets. That there will be innocents who die in such a campaign goes without saying.

    So I wonder, why just not open a couple of tins of Instant Sunshine - turn Eastern Syria/North Western Iraq into a glass car park? Much quicker, cheaper and more efficacious than faffing around with Brimstone missiles taking out a Toyota pick-up truck here and there and pretending we are achieving something. No need for us to do it, of course, or at least not alone, the Russians and the French have equal or better capabilities in this regard.

    A few nukes would seem a little heavy handed, but we should not shrink too much from civilian casualties. They are inevitable in such campaigns. In for a penny, in for a pound...
  • All very interesting but from the betting perspective, how many are actually putting money on Labour losing? Head versus heart time; how many on here expect Labour to lose?

    I backed UKIP at 8/1 a fortnight ago.

    I expect not to collect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    Oldham loved Labour enough before that there's no way they lose this, no matter how bad things get. You'd need practically everyone who had voted Labour before who didn't want to now, to vote UKIP, and I doubt all of them will.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,459
    FPT: JosiasJessop

    "On their turf?" Well it would depend under what auspices you were there.

    Depends which bit of 'their turf' too.

    I know it seems incredible, but these people are not barbarians. They just act like it.

  • I think Oldham West is very hard to call. I'd like to hear from UKIP canvassers on the question I raise below before making my prediction.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    All very interesting but from the betting perspective, how many are actually putting money on Labour losing? Head versus heart time; how many on here expect Labour to lose?

    I think Labour will win but not tempted at the current odds available.
  • The FT trailing an MP is off to work for a pop band.... is this the Lab by-election hint that OGH reported recently...


    Jim Waterson ✔ @jimwaterson
    @callummay @PickardJE Sir Peter Tapsell to spend his retirement indulging his longstanding passion for Napalm Death.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    Omnium said:

    FPT: JosiasJessop


    I know it seems incredible, but these people are not barbarians. They just act like it.

    What's the distinction? What else makes someone a barbarian, other than their actions?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited November 2015
    OMNIUM...WHAAAAT....Not barbarians.. are you insane...ok ok ..you are a spoof..well done
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    edited November 2015
    Politics works in Mysterious Ways

    If the general election had taken a different turn he could have been the UK’s foreign secretary. Instead, he was one of the 40 Labour MPs swept away by the Scottish National party in May.

    Now, Douglas Alexander is poised to take up a very different role: advising Bono from U2, one of the world’s best known rock stars.


    http://on.ft.com/1Q6DWxU
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    Oldham loved Labour enough before that there's no way they lose this, no matter how bad things get. You'd need practically everyone who had voted Labour before who didn't want to now, to vote UKIP, and I doubt all of them will.

    Yep. A modest Labour win on low turnout. Meacher was quite a leftie, and not local so from the Corbyn mold. Also by elections caused by death rather than resignation tend to get some sympathy vote.
  • Nope

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 1m1 minute ago
    Douglas Alexander to get six-figure salary working for Bono https://next.ft.com/content/6babdf24-96b7-11e5-95c7-d47aa298f769 … FT
  • The FT trailing an MP is off to work for a pop band.... is this the Lab by-election hint that OGH reported recently...


    Jim Waterson ✔ @jimwaterson
    @callummay @PickardJE Sir Peter Tapsell to spend his retirement indulging his longstanding passion for Napalm Death.

    He stood down at 2015 GE...
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    Oldham Market

    Lab winning margin
    0-5 3/1
    5-10 7/4
    10-15 4/1
    15-20 18/1
    20-25 33/1
    25+ 40/1

    Lab Lose 5/2
  • Pah, nothing new. Tom Watson has already retired once to plug Drenge.
  • Pah, nothing new. Tom Watson has already retired once to plug Drenge.

    Douglas Alexander is the One
  • Nope

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 1m1 minute ago
    Douglas Alexander to get six-figure salary working for Bono https://next.ft.com/content/6babdf24-96b7-11e5-95c7-d47aa298f769 … FT

    Got to do something to pay the mortgage, now the taxpayer doesn't.
  • It is a Beautiful Day for Bono and Douglas Alexander.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Hundreds of thousands of people are marching worldwide to demand action to stop climate change, but one protest in Paris was marred by violence.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34956825

    What I find disturbing is the notion that mankind could stop any World Climate Change. Where do people get the hubris from, that they could stop the sun in its cycle, or the world change it's axis; even a fraction.

    Suppose the it was global cooling that was happening instead of global warming, what do these loons, scientists as well as lay-people expect man to do about it? No wonder that Militant Jihadist Islam is having such an easy ride in the so called West, whose brains have curdled.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Omnium said:

    FPT: JosiasJessop

    "On their turf?" Well it would depend under what auspices you were there.

    Depends which bit of 'their turf' too.

    I know it seems incredible, but these people are not barbarians. They just act like it.

    Here we get into deeper questions. Certainly, some will not be barbarians. In fact, it would not surprise me if there were some in the leadership who are utterly sane and using the devout for their own ends.

    However, there will be some who are, for a better word, barbarians. If they were not before doing, or watching, some of the acts ISIS are famed for, they might be afterwards.

    And as you are 'negotiating', you would have to wonder what sort of person you are dealing with. Unlike in most businesses, getting it wrong would mean more than the loss of a contract or your job.

    Then there is the next question: what do you negotiate with? What can we offer them, and they offer us, which can be used as a basis for any negotiation?
  • I had hoped it was Jacob Rees-Mogg working for Rammstein
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    I'm starting to think Labour really might lose this. It would not be astonishing if their vote collapsed entirely and UKIP won on a very low turnout.
  • I had hoped it was Jacob Rees-Mogg working for Rammstein

    LOL.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Climate change protestors on roof of buck house

    Bbc news
  • I had hoped it was Jacob Rees-Mogg working for Rammstein

    LOL.
    Can you imagine his reaction the first time he saw the video for Pussy?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2015

    All very interesting but from the betting perspective, how many are actually putting money on Labour losing? Head versus heart time; how many on here expect Labour to lose?

    My current betting position;

    http://imgur.com/Sw2mVZc

    I'm not prepared to back UKIP below 3/1.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    So, on a quick straw poll of PB's finest, whose political views range pretty much across the whole spectrum (though maybe a bit short on the left - probably not yet home from Evensong) nobody expects Labour to lose in Oldham this week. "Labour holds with a reduced majority" is the most likely headline and not one that is going to cause any big waves.

  • MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Oldham Market

    Lab winning margin
    0-5 3/1
    5-10 7/4
    10-15 4/1
    15-20 18/1
    20-25 33/1
    25+ 40/1

    Lab Lose 5/2

    A tenner on 10-15 (I interpret this as 10% to less than 15%) please.

    Jamie Vardy tgs looking good! I also have £1 ew at 3000/1 from August on Leicester topping the League.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Nice try, TSE, but no cigar.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    Best tweet I've seen from Oldham is a picture of Kezia Dugdale signing the "signing in wall" - Labour seem to be throwing the kitchen sink and the toilet sinks at Oldham.

    Defeating ISIS from the air isn't feasible, we'll need local allies to complete the job. One of our new "allies" - Jaysh Al-Islam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam

    As far as I can tell this bunch appear to be just as bad as ISIS, their only redeeming feature is they're on our side (for now). Some recent coverage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3145562/Rival-Syrian-terror-group-turns-tables-ISIS-fighters-releasing-slick-execution-video-executing-jihadis-dressed-orange-jumpsuits.html

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/01/Monitor-Syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-as-human-shields-.html
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    Thanks for the cheers, @Hurst
  • MikeK said:
    Why should that please me? Do tell?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 1,478

    Omnium said:

    FPT: JosiasJessop

    "On their turf?" Well it would depend under what auspices you were there.

    Depends which bit of 'their turf' too.

    I know it seems incredible, but these people are not barbarians. They just act like it.

    Here we get into deeper questions. Certainly, some will not be barbarians. In fact, it would not surprise me if there were some in the leadership who are utterly sane and using the devout for their own ends.

    However, there will be some who are, for a better word, barbarians. If they were not before doing, or watching, some of the acts ISIS are famed for, they might be afterwards.

    And as you are 'negotiating', you would have to wonder what sort of person you are dealing with. Unlike in most businesses, getting it wrong would mean more than the loss of a contract or your job.

    Then there is the next question: what do you negotiate with? What can we offer them, and they offer us, which can be used as a basis for any negotiation?
    It is worth remembering that all "barbarians" in history (that I can think of) had a rational position, religion, culture etc. The foaming at the mouth, biker-on-pcp-on-a-horse thing isn't the reality.

    ISIS actually fit in with the classic barbarian type - new religion/variant/ideology, come in slaughter, rape and pillage.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited November 2015

    isam said:

    Oldham Market

    Lab winning margin
    0-5 3/1
    5-10 7/4
    10-15 4/1
    15-20 18/1
    20-25 33/1
    25+ 40/1

    Lab Lose 5/2

    A tenner on 10-15 (I interpret this as 10% to less than 15%) please.

    Jamie Vardy tgs looking good! I also have £1 ew at 3000/1 from August on Leicester topping the League.
    Yes indeed, Vardy is looking like a good thing at a fancy price (though not as fancy as 3000!) Im on Lukaku and Kane each way as well, just need Aggers out of the frame

    Backed Vardy for PFA player of the year at 12/1 too.. seemed a nice price as he was 3/1 at the time for the boot

    A tenner at 4/1 Lab 10-15 you have
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    calum said:

    Best tweet I've seen from Oldham is a picture of Kezia Dugdale signing the "signing in wall" - Labour seem to be throwing the kitchen sink and the toilet sinks at Oldham.

    Defeating ISIS from the air isn't feasible, we'll need local allies to complete the job. One of our new "allies" - Jaysh Al-Islam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam

    As far as I can tell this bunch appear to be just as bad as ISIS, their only redeeming feature is they're on our side (for now). Some recent coverage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3145562/Rival-Syrian-terror-group-turns-tables-ISIS-fighters-releasing-slick-execution-video-executing-jihadis-dressed-orange-jumpsuits.html

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/01/Monitor-Syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-as-human-shields-.html

    Must be about twenty different factions and armies in Syria. Nevertheless it is ISIS that attacked Paris and so must be destroyed.

    Incredibly every single side in the civil war has God on their side. He must be quite a guy.
  • MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
  • Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    calum said:

    Best tweet I've seen from Oldham is a picture of Kezia Dugdale signing the "signing in wall" - Labour seem to be throwing the kitchen sink and the toilet sinks at Oldham.

    Defeating ISIS from the air isn't feasible, we'll need local allies to complete the job. One of our new "allies" - Jaysh Al-Islam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam

    As far as I can tell this bunch appear to be just as bad as ISIS, their only redeeming feature is they're on our side (for now). Some recent coverage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3145562/Rival-Syrian-terror-group-turns-tables-ISIS-fighters-releasing-slick-execution-video-executing-jihadis-dressed-orange-jumpsuits.html

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/01/Monitor-Syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-as-human-shields-.html

    Wow. Reading that is beginning to convince me that HL is right and that a liberal application of canned sunshine would be a mercy.
  • Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!

    She's the founder of the Milifandom.

    She's very brave
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    Wonder what the correct (x) is for the 5/6 line:

    Lab MPs minus (x) vs UKIP for after the next GE.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder what the correct (x) is for the 5/6 line:

    Lab MPs minus (x) vs UKIP for after the next GE.

    About 150 I would think. 20% Lab gets 150 seats on Electoral Calculus more or less.
  • Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!

    She's the founder of the Milifandom.

    She's very brave
    Didn't she support Andy Burnham for the leadership?
    She was a Fandy iirc
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,888

    Omnium said:

    FPT: JosiasJessop

    "On their turf?" Well it would depend under what auspices you were there.

    Depends which bit of 'their turf' too.

    I know it seems incredible, but these people are not barbarians. They just act like it.

    Here we get into deeper questions. Certainly, some will not be barbarians. In fact, it would not surprise me if there were some in the leadership who are utterly sane and using the devout for their own ends.

    However, there will be some who are, for a better word, barbarians. If they were not before doing, or watching, some of the acts ISIS are famed for, they might be afterwards.

    And as you are 'negotiating', you would have to wonder what sort of person you are dealing with. Unlike in most businesses, getting it wrong would mean more than the loss of a contract or your job.

    Then there is the next question: what do you negotiate with? What can we offer them, and they offer us, which can be used as a basis for any negotiation?
    It is worth remembering that all "barbarians" in history (that I can think of) had a rational position, religion, culture etc. The foaming at the mouth, biker-on-pcp-on-a-horse thing isn't the reality.

    ISIS actually fit in with the classic barbarian type - new religion/variant/ideology, come in slaughter, rape and pillage.
    Genghis Khan's modus operandi was highly rational and highly effective. Surrender and live. Resist and die.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,676
    Wanderer said:

    I'm starting to think Labour really might lose this. It would not be astonishing if their vote collapsed entirely and UKIP won on a very low turnout.

    No one*, Lab supporters in Oldham included, cares enough about Jezza for Lab not to win.

    *apart from PB
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited November 2015

    MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    TSE..That chap may have a wee problem getting that across to some of the indigenous tribes,Apache..Sioux..Commanche etc plus the KKK...Most of the American church groups.. the Mormons, white supremacists and the entire Bible belt..I wish him luck..and advise him not to walk his dog late at night
  • Abby Tomlinson?

    You mean THE Abby Tomlinson?

    THIS Abby Tomlinson?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

  • Pulpstar said:

    Wonder what the correct (x) is for the 5/6 line:

    Lab MPs minus (x) vs UKIP for after the next GE.

    Baxtering Con 40 Lab 18 UKIP 22 LD 10

    Still gives Lab 140 seats and UKIP 20 seats.
  • It'd be a blessing in disguise for Labour to lose Oldham, IMHO.

    As for the whole universities/Corbyn/left-wing discussion in the previous thread, the most balanced opinions, tend to be somewhere in the centre as opposed to the right of British politics. Corbyn is a disaster, but Cameron, Osborne, and the Conservative Party aren't absolutely amazing either. In fact, looking at this whole Clarke scandal, there is something rather dark and disturbing at the heart of the Conservative Party.
  • Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!

    She's the founder of the Milifandom.

    She's very brave
    Didn't she support Andy Burnham for the leadership?
    She was a Fandy iirc
    She did.

    I've got an Andy is crap thread coming up next weekend (for old times sake)
  • So, on a quick straw poll of PB's finest, whose political views range pretty much across the whole spectrum (though maybe a bit short on the left - probably not yet home from Evensong) nobody expects Labour to lose in Oldham this week. "Labour holds with a reduced majority" is the most likely headline and not one that is going to cause any big waves.

    Avast Mr Llama,

    UKIP came within 600 or so votes at Heywood & Middleton in 2014, not a million miles away from Oldham.
  • MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
    I nearly added the third adjective, roué, but decided not to, as that's French, and I'm not old.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    calum said:

    Best tweet I've seen from Oldham is a picture of Kezia Dugdale signing the "signing in wall" - Labour seem to be throwing the kitchen sink and the toilet sinks at Oldham.

    Defeating ISIS from the air isn't feasible, we'll need local allies to complete the job. One of our new "allies" - Jaysh Al-Islam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam

    As far as I can tell this bunch appear to be just as bad as ISIS, their only redeeming feature is they're on our side (for now). Some recent coverage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3145562/Rival-Syrian-terror-group-turns-tables-ISIS-fighters-releasing-slick-execution-video-executing-jihadis-dressed-orange-jumpsuits.html

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/01/Monitor-Syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-as-human-shields-.html

    Wow. Reading that is beginning to convince me that HL is right and that a liberal application of canned sunshine would be a mercy.
    Be fair, Doc. I only asked a question. I did not propose a course of action.
  • SeanT said:

    Nope - small win, about 1500 maj

    All very interesting but from the betting perspective, how many are actually putting money on Labour losing? Head versus heart time; how many on here expect Labour to lose?

    Agree. Labour by two to three thousand on a tiny turnout.
    That would be a decent result for Labour. A 2500 maj on a 25% turnout would be about a 14% lead.

    I don't expect Labour to break into double figures in their % lead though turnout may be up on that 25% (the weather forecast for Thursday at the moment is calm and cold). 1500 tops.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    calum said:

    Best tweet I've seen from Oldham is a picture of Kezia Dugdale signing the "signing in wall" - Labour seem to be throwing the kitchen sink and the toilet sinks at Oldham.

    Defeating ISIS from the air isn't feasible, we'll need local allies to complete the job. One of our new "allies" - Jaysh Al-Islam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam

    As far as I can tell this bunch appear to be just as bad as ISIS, their only redeeming feature is they're on our side (for now). Some recent coverage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3145562/Rival-Syrian-terror-group-turns-tables-ISIS-fighters-releasing-slick-execution-video-executing-jihadis-dressed-orange-jumpsuits.html

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/01/Monitor-Syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-as-human-shields-.html

    Wow. Reading that is beginning to convince me that HL is right and that a liberal application of canned sunshine would be a mercy.
    Be fair, Doc. I only asked a question. I did not propose a course of action.
    I know it was not a serious proposal.

    Frankly, Assad is looking a sensible moderate next to that bunch.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited November 2015
    The puzzling thing about the desire to bomb Syria is that almost all attacks by ISIS have been carried out by people from the country attacked.

    But no one seems to mention this much...

    It's like having a disease and eliminating one of the causes rather than trying to cure it, like a lung cancer sufferer giving up smoking but not treating the cancer
  • MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
    I nearly added the third adjective, roué, but decided not to, as that's French, and I'm not old.
    We're supposed to be nice to our frères français now!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280

    It'd be a blessing in disguise for Labour to lose Oldham, IMHO.

    As for the whole universities/Corbyn/left-wing discussion in the previous thread, the most balanced opinions, tend to be somewhere in the centre as opposed to the right of British politics. Corbyn is a disaster, but Cameron, Osborne, and the Conservative Party aren't absolutely amazing either. In fact, looking at this whole Clarke scandal, there is something rather dark and disturbing at the heart of the Conservative Party.

    All parties have this sort of thing in them, and it is disingenuous to say otherwise. In fact, any large organisation does.

    The scandal is not in having such people, for they can rarely be detected beforehand; it is in the way you mishandle allegations. And Labour or the Lib Dems don't have an exemplary record in that either.

    It's made worse by the fact that political parties rely on volunteers, who are hard to vet and hard to keep motivated. If you get a keen one, it can be hard to control them fully as they know they are unpaid, and yet they can be incredibly productive.

    But in this case, giving Clarke a second chance seems to have been a fairly disastrous decision.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108

    MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
    I nearly added the third adjective, roué, but decided not to, as that's French, and I'm not old.
    Something to aspire to in later life....
  • Wanderer said:

    I'm starting to think Labour really might lose this. It would not be astonishing if their vote collapsed entirely and UKIP won on a very low turnout.

    They won't. Labour can be assured of a decent postal vote so if UKIP are to take it then they'll need to get the votes rather than rely on Labour abstentions.
  • isam said:

    The puzzling thing about the desire to bomb Syria is that almost all attacks by ISIS have been carried out by people from the country attacked.

    But no one seems to mention this much...

    It's like having a disease and eliminating one of the causes rather than trying to cure it, like a lung cancer sufferer giving up smoking but not treating the cancer

    Hadn't some/most of them traveled there for training etc?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 1,478

    calum said:

    Best tweet I've seen from Oldham is a picture of Kezia Dugdale signing the "signing in wall" - Labour seem to be throwing the kitchen sink and the toilet sinks at Oldham.

    Defeating ISIS from the air isn't feasible, we'll need local allies to complete the job. One of our new "allies" - Jaysh Al-Islam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam

    As far as I can tell this bunch appear to be just as bad as ISIS, their only redeeming feature is they're on our side (for now). Some recent coverage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3145562/Rival-Syrian-terror-group-turns-tables-ISIS-fighters-releasing-slick-execution-video-executing-jihadis-dressed-orange-jumpsuits.html

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/01/Monitor-Syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-as-human-shields-.html

    Wow. Reading that is beginning to convince me that HL is right and that a liberal application of canned sunshine would be a mercy.
    Malmesbury's Second Law of Civil Wars : The evil bastards are the ones with the guns
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    The puzzling thing about the desire to bomb Syria is that almost all attacks by ISIS have been carried out by people from the country attacked, but no one seems to mention this much...

    I have mentioned it. Many of the terrorists may be homegrown, but to have spent some in ISISland. It may be easier to kill them there and also make it less attractive to wannabee jihadists.

    There need to be some dawn raids here though, and some new treason legislation.
  • So, on a quick straw poll of PB's finest, whose political views range pretty much across the whole spectrum (though maybe a bit short on the left - probably not yet home from Evensong) nobody expects Labour to lose in Oldham this week. "Labour holds with a reduced majority" is the most likely headline and not one that is going to cause any big waves.

    I don't 'expect' Labour to lose but it's well within the range of possibilities. Put it this way: it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.
  • Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!

    She's the founder of the Milifandom.

    She's very brave
    Didn't she support Andy Burnham for the leadership?
    She was a Fandy iirc
    She did.

    I've got an Andy is crap thread coming up next weekend (for old times sake)
    I hope that doesn't delay the AV thread that you've been taunting us all with.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 1,478

    isam said:

    The puzzling thing about the desire to bomb Syria is that almost all attacks by ISIS have been carried out by people from the country attacked, but no one seems to mention this much...

    I have mentioned it. Many of the terrorists may be homegrown, but to have spent some in ISISland. It may be easier to kill them there and also make it less attractive to wannabee jihadists.

    There need to be some dawn raids here though, and some new treason legislation.
    You are assuming that nothing is being done here at the moment. There is a reason that UK ISIS wannabees are regarded with extreme distrust by ISIS - apparently lots of them either were or become informers to the Infidels....
  • MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
    I nearly added the third adjective, roué, but decided not to, as that's French, and I'm not old.
    We're supposed to be nice to our frères français now!
    We're talking of centuries of history being forgotten just like that.

    For people like me who love and have a deep knowledge of history, this is a difficult time.

    I'm scared that someone might propose Guy Mollet's suggestion to unite Le Royaume-Uni with France again.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352

    isam said:

    The puzzling thing about the desire to bomb Syria is that almost all attacks by ISIS have been carried out by people from the country attacked.

    But no one seems to mention this much...

    It's like having a disease and eliminating one of the causes rather than trying to cure it, like a lung cancer sufferer giving up smoking but not treating the cancer

    Hadn't some/most of them traveled there for training etc?
    Yes so I'm not saying it's completely futile to bomb (just as it wouldn't be futile to give up smoking in my example), but the only way ISIS get to carry out these attacks is by using nationals of the country attacked... that is the really scary thing, and no politician, Farage aside, dare mention it

    It's almost worse that Farage does mention it, as other parties would rather carry on ignoring the massive problem than be seen agreeing with him

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
    I nearly added the third adjective, roué, but decided not to, as that's French, and I'm not old.
    Something to aspire to in later life....
    As ever Flanders and Swann have smething to say about plans of a roué


  • Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!

    She's the founder of the Milifandom.

    She's very brave
    Didn't she support Andy Burnham for the leadership?
    She was a Fandy iirc
    She did.

    I've got an Andy is crap thread coming up next weekend (for old times sake)
    I hope that doesn't delay the AV thread that you've been taunting us all with.
    The AV thread is going up on the 20th of December
  • Pulpstar said:

    Wonder what the correct (x) is for the 5/6 line:

    Lab MPs minus (x) vs UKIP for after the next GE.

    Baxtering Con 40 Lab 18 UKIP 22 LD 10

    Still gives Lab 140 seats and UKIP 20 seats.
    Do we really believe that though? UKIP's support would be much more patchy and with new boundaries playing a part, I could see Labour dropping a good deal further than those figures suggest. In fact, I'm toying with writing a Labocalypse thread for next weekend, depending on how Oldham turns out.
  • Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!

    She's the founder of the Milifandom.

    She's very brave
    Didn't she support Andy Burnham for the leadership?
    She was a Fandy iirc
    She did.

    I've got an Andy is crap thread coming up next weekend (for old times sake)
    I hope that doesn't delay the AV thread that you've been taunting us all with.
    The AV thread is going up on the 20th of December
    Ooh, make it the day after as a special birthday treat for me.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,997

    So, on a quick straw poll of PB's finest, whose political views range pretty much across the whole spectrum (though maybe a bit short on the left - probably not yet home from Evensong) nobody expects Labour to lose in Oldham this week. "Labour holds with a reduced majority" is the most likely headline and not one that is going to cause any big waves.

    I don't 'expect' Labour to lose but it's well within the range of possibilities. Put it this way: it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.
    Paging Mr R. Crosby...I'd be interested in your thoughts...

    My gut feeling is that this could go to UKIP.

    Combination of northern constituency in an area with a track record of difficult race relations, unmotivated Labour voters, terribly unpopular leader and held the day after a parly decision to extend hostilities that said leader manages to isolate himself with....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,888

    So, on a quick straw poll of PB's finest, whose political views range pretty much across the whole spectrum (though maybe a bit short on the left - probably not yet home from Evensong) nobody expects Labour to lose in Oldham this week. "Labour holds with a reduced majority" is the most likely headline and not one that is going to cause any big waves.

    Avast Mr Llama,

    UKIP came within 600 or so votes at Heywood & Middleton in 2014, not a million miles away from Oldham.
    If Heywood & Middleton were being contested today, UKIP would win it by 2-3,000. Oldham West is a much tougher proposition. I think Labour will hold by 1,000 or so, on the back of postal votes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    edited November 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder what the correct (x) is for the 5/6 line:

    Lab MPs minus (x) vs UKIP for after the next GE.

    Baxtering Con 40 Lab 18 UKIP 22 LD 10

    Still gives Lab 140 seats and UKIP 20 seats.
    Do we really believe that though? UKIP's support would be much more patchy and with new boundaries playing a part, I could see Labour dropping a good deal further than those figures suggest. In fact, I'm toying with writing a Labocalypse thread for next weekend, depending on how Oldham turns out.
    Is a rough guide. I expect FPTP will break down in those circumstances. I suspect the Tories might benefit more than UKIP in that scenario.

    Tissue Price said it could be like Scotland all over again for Labour.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 1,478

    It'd be a blessing in disguise for Labour to lose Oldham, IMHO.

    As for the whole universities/Corbyn/left-wing discussion in the previous thread, the most balanced opinions, tend to be somewhere in the centre as opposed to the right of British politics. Corbyn is a disaster, but Cameron, Osborne, and the Conservative Party aren't absolutely amazing either. In fact, looking at this whole Clarke scandal, there is something rather dark and disturbing at the heart of the Conservative Party.

    All parties have this sort of thing in them, and it is disingenuous to say otherwise. In fact, any large organisation does.

    The scandal is not in having such people, for they can rarely be detected beforehand; it is in the way you mishandle allegations. And Labour or the Lib Dems don't have an exemplary record in that either.

    It's made worse by the fact that political parties rely on volunteers, who are hard to vet and hard to keep motivated. If you get a keen one, it can be hard to control them fully as they know they are unpaid, and yet they can be incredibly productive.

    But in this case, giving Clarke a second chance seems to have been a fairly disastrous decision.
    Has anyone seen where Martin Smith (SWP) is these days?
  • MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
    I nearly added the third adjective, roué, but decided not to, as that's French, and I'm not old.
    We're supposed to be nice to our frères français now!
    We're talking of centuries of history being forgotten just like that.

    For people like me who love and have a deep knowledge of history, this is a difficult time.

    I'm scared that someone might propose Guy Mollet's suggestion to unite Le Royaume-Uni with France again.
    Didn't he merely have the Treaty of Troyes in mind?
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    If UKIP can win a seat of Labour that they won 7 months previously with 53% of the votes, and where 25% of the population are muslim, it will be truly remarkable, one of the most remarkable results ever

    I made Labour 1/50 when the by election was announced, couldn't see how UKIP could possibly win
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    The puzzling thing about the desire to bomb Syria is that almost all attacks by ISIS have been carried out by people from the country attacked.

    But no one seems to mention this much...

    It's like having a disease and eliminating one of the causes rather than trying to cure it, like a lung cancer sufferer giving up smoking but not treating the cancer

    Hadn't some/most of them traveled there for training etc?
    Yes so I'm not saying it's completely futile to bomb (just as it wouldn't be futile to give up smoking in my example), but the only way ISIS get to carry out these attacks is by using nationals of the country attacked... that is the really scary thing, and no politician, Farage aside, dare mention it

    It's almost worse that Farage does mention it, as other parties would rather carry on ignoring the massive problem than be seen agreeing with him

    It's the logical thing for ISIS to do.
    The Jihadis return here as 5th columnists. It should be a one way journey for them.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,984
    @hurst_llama A more recent tribute to Flanders & Swan.

  • isam said:

    If UKIP can win a seat of Labour that they won 7 months previously with 53% of the votes, and where 25% of the population are muslim, it will be truly remarkable, one of the most remarkable results ever

    I made Labour 1/50 when the by election was announced, couldn't see how UKIP could possibly win

    Some of the Scottish results in May were still more spectacular, but you're basically right. Like you I thought this was an easy Labour hold when the by-election was announced. I think UKIP might win it now, though they're still underdogs.

    UKIP need to start managing expectations. Achieving a 12% swing would be a stonking result but right now it would probably be seen as disappointing, given how expectations have been built up.
  • MikeK said:

    If UKIP win Oldham next week, I will send a bottle of high proof vodka to OGH to drown his sorrows. :D

    That'll give what UKIP 103 MPs now?
    Crikey, Mr. Eagles, if UKIP do win at Oldham this week I should have thought that the basic decency of an English Gentleman requires you to spend some of your winnings in sending Mr.K a bottle of something decent.
    I'm more of an English cad and bounder.
    That is a keeper of a post. I shall not only save it but save it up in the Cloud so that even if my computer goes bang I will be able to trot it out whenever it seems right, which I suspect will be often.
    I nearly added the third adjective, roué, but decided not to, as that's French, and I'm not old.
    We're supposed to be nice to our frères français now!
    We're talking of centuries of history being forgotten just like that.

    For people like me who love and have a deep knowledge of history, this is a difficult time.

    I'm scared that someone might propose Guy Mollet's suggestion to unite Le Royaume-Uni with France again.
    Didn't he merely have the Treaty of Troyes in mind?
    No, I want France to honour the Treaty of Troyes

    Guy Mollet was the French PM

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6261885.stm
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited November 2015
    Turkey and European leaders have struck a deal to try to control the flow of migrants to Europe.

    Turkey will receive €3bn (£2.1bn) and political concessions in return for clamping down on its borders and keeping refugees in the country.

    Talks on Turkey's accession to the European Union will also be revived.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34957830

    Do we trust the Turkish to do as they say? Would this be the same Turkey who waved through loads of would be Jahadists on their way to Syria?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    So, on a quick straw poll of PB's finest, whose political views range pretty much across the whole spectrum (though maybe a bit short on the left - probably not yet home from Evensong) nobody expects Labour to lose in Oldham this week. "Labour holds with a reduced majority" is the most likely headline and not one that is going to cause any big waves.

    I don't 'expect' Labour to lose but it's well within the range of possibilities. Put it this way: it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.
    It would be a wake up call for Labour. The problem is, the leadership, party members and union backers seem not to care.

    Unison has now stuck their heads up and said Corbyn is not going anywhere. Quite a number of MPs are sponsored by Unison of course and would they dare to go against the sponsors? Based on the present situation even if Labour should lose the seat then I cannot see at this point this would hasten the departure of the present Leader.

    It really is a dire position for a moderate to be in to be honest. The only way back is likely to be the formation of an entirely new centre left party more aligned with LibDems.
  • Moses_ said:

    So, on a quick straw poll of PB's finest, whose political views range pretty much across the whole spectrum (though maybe a bit short on the left - probably not yet home from Evensong) nobody expects Labour to lose in Oldham this week. "Labour holds with a reduced majority" is the most likely headline and not one that is going to cause any big waves.

    I don't 'expect' Labour to lose but it's well within the range of possibilities. Put it this way: it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.
    It would be a wake up call for Labour. The problem is, the leadership, party members and union backers seem not to care.

    Unison has now stuck their heads up and said Corbyn is not going anywhere. Quite a number of MPs are sponsored by Unison of course and would they dare to go against the sponsors? Based on the present situation even if Labour should lose the seat then I cannot see at this point this would hasten the departure of the present Leader.

    It really is a dire position for a moderate to be in to be honest. The only way back is likely to be the formation of an entirely new centre left party more aligned with LibDems.
    I've already spoken to one Corbynite friend (I've several, but this one is quite politically attuned), who's comment on the possibility of Labour losing was "strange things happen at by-elections". I suspect this one would be written off to 'racist Oldham voters', with a nod to the BNP's 16% in 2001.

    There will always be an excuse, be it the voters, the media or the Tories.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Evening all

    The Labour canvasser is a brave girl – hope she doesn’t receive the full wrath of Momentum..!

    She's the founder of the Milifandom.

    She's very brave
    Didn't she support Andy Burnham for the leadership?
    She was a Fandy iirc
    She did.

    I've got an Andy is crap thread coming up next weekend (for old times sake)
    I hope that doesn't delay the AV thread that you've been taunting us all with.
    The AV thread is going up on the 20th of December
    Ooh, make it the day after as a special birthday treat for me.
    The AV thread is like Jam. It is always AV yesterday and AV tommorow but never AV today.

    Perhaps a Scottish indy thread would be a fair substitute...
  • Activist group linked to Jeremy Corbyn has accounts closed amid fears it may be funding terrorism

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12023669/Activist-group-linked-to-Jeremy-Corbyn-has-accounts-closed-amid-fears-it-may-be-funding-terrorism.html

    Cue the screaming on twitter...
This discussion has been closed.