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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictio

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the New Year rolls in Alastair Meeks makes his predictions

Making predictions is a mug’s game as I showed in my last post.  So I shall now prove that I have not learned from experience and have another go.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • What happened to Auld Lang Syne and Hogmanay and the Scottish New Year? I thought Scotland was still part of our country but seems like it is gone after all.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    7. I have to say it's remarkable to think that people will vote on Europe who didn't vote at the general election. I can't get behind this one.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    All the Veries in the Coming Year of the Fire Monkey!

    It helps (in my dating exploits at least) that I was born in the year of the Wooden Snake (aka the Heavenly Branch)...

    Damn, this port is good!

    (^_-)

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Happy New Year PBers. – And all the very best for 2016.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Happy New Year PBers. – And all the very best for 2016.

    I'll second that.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Happy new year to all

    Keep the smile, Leave the tear, Hold the laugh, Leave the pain, Think of joy, Forget the fear.
    Be joyous, because its a New Year !!

    Night all.....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...

    Listen for the 'OddJob' chord, the minor-major 7th, also known as the 'Hitchcock' chord...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What happened to Auld Lang Syne and Hogmanay and the Scottish New Year? I thought Scotland was still part of our country but seems like it is gone after all.

    On the Red Button...
  • Danny565 said:

    My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.

    More likely to be over 40%
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.

    More likely to be over 40%
    If you say so.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    YouGov Tory leaders' poll: General Public

    Boris Johnson: 25%
    Theresa May: 15%
    George Osborne: 13%

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4653821.ece
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Danny565 said:

    My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.

    I agree that a Tory mid-term slump is likely. Until a few weeks ago I had thought that a Labour lead was likely at some point (which would send the Jezuits into a frenzy). Now I'm not sure that will happen. But the Tories are not going to spend the the whole Parliament in the high thirties.
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.

    More likely to be over 40%
    If you say so.
    I see no reason to think labour will improve while they are in a deatructive civil war that will take years to resolve and I do not get pleasure in that as the goverment needs a cohesive opposition
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.

    More likely to be over 40%
    If you say so.
    I see no reason to think labour will improve while they are in a deatructive civil war that will take years to resolve and I do not get pleasure in that as the goverment needs a cohesive opposition
    The Tories slumping does not necessarily mean Labour improving, as the mid-term of the last parliament showed.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Slight mea culpa though: Osborne is apparently well ahead of Corbyn on a match-up question in the YouGov poll. 'Statistically tied' no more :(
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    On topic, thanks @AlastairMeeks for such a substantive midnight article. I was some "lol New Year" thread.

    I think I agree with all your predictions except 8. I'm very doubtful that Remain will win and it is does I think it will be close. I hope I'm wrong but I think there's too much pent-up anti-EU sentiment. Of course, this has implications for 10 but I don't see the Conservative Party actually splitting almost no matter what.

    Oh, and Happy New Year.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Danny565 said:

    Slight mea culpa though: Osborne is apparently well ahead of Corbyn on a match-up question in the YouGov poll. 'Statistically tied' no more :(

    The most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy in the realm reigns supreme. ;)
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My main prediction for 2016 is that, for all the Tory hubris about how supposedly popular the government is, the Tories' poll ratings will be down to close to 30% by the end of the year. Whether that lost support goes to Labour, or rather to UKIP or (less likely) the Lib Dems, is another question though.

    More likely to be over 40%
    If you say so.
    I see no reason to think labour will improve while they are in a deatructive civil war that will take years to resolve and I do not get pleasure in that as the goverment needs a cohesive opposition
    The Tories slumping does not necessarily mean Labour improving, as the mid-term of the last parliament showed.
    Yes. I think we could see that again. People disliking the Tories, utterly unimpressed with Labour, they'll turn to whatever mid-term protest vehicle suits their taste.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    Surely you can never lose in that situation - your favorite always wins :D
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited January 2016
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    Surely you can never lose in that situation - your favorite always wins :D
    and loses

    You might want to check with an immigration lawyer in the new year - there was an item on the news today about some visa restrictions being eased soon.
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    Surely you can never lose in that situation - your favorite always wins :D
    and loses

    You might want to check with an immigration lawyer in the new year - there was an item on the news today about some visa restrictions being eased soon.
    Surely you must have an actual favourite between the two. You may well be better balanced than me but I find it impossible to watch a sporting event and not choose a team which I want to win and be slightly pissed off if they lose. It's actually harder I think when you hate both teams rather than like them.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
  • Wanderer said:


    I think I agree with all your predictions except 8. I'm very doubtful that Remain will win and it is does I think it will be close. I hope I'm wrong but I think there's too much pent-up anti-EU sentiment.

    It doesn't seem that pent up tbh.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:


    I think I agree with all your predictions except 8. I'm very doubtful that Remain will win and it is does I think it will be close. I hope I'm wrong but I think there's too much pent-up anti-EU sentiment.

    It doesn't seem that pent up tbh.
    lol, you have a point
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2016
    I disagree about the London mayoral election. Zac will win with about 52-53% of second preferences IMO, partly because the Tory vote in the outer London boroughs will be higher than in any previous London mayoral election. Also I think Leave will get above 45% in a EU referendum.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Tom said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    Surely you can never lose in that situation - your favorite always wins :D
    and loses

    You might want to check with an immigration lawyer in the new year - there was an item on the news today about some visa restrictions being eased soon.
    Surely you must have an actual favourite between the two. You may well be better balanced than me but I find it impossible to watch a sporting event and not choose a team which I want to win and be slightly pissed off if they lose. It's actually harder I think when you hate both teams rather than like them.
    Clemson is in the ACC and Alabama is in the SEC, so they don't normally play each other. I have friends who went to both and I've been to games at both. I'm typically an SEC homer, plus Clemson and Georgia Tech.

    So instead of Roll Tide or Go Tigers I'll have say Roll Tigers or something.

    Even worse - the game's on my birthday.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...

    People say it's one of the best Bond films.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Regarding Tony Martin

    1. Householders obviously should have a right to defend themselves on their own property.
    2. But that is clearly not an unlimited one: you have no right to kidnap and torture someone who burgles you.

    There should be a wide degree of latitude given to householders, given they are the ones who feel frightened.

    I think Tony Martin crossed the line on 2. But it was by no means clear he was attempting to kill anybody. Manslaughter feels right.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...

    People say it's one of the best Bond films.
    It's the best, the shortest, and the one where all the components of a Bond film came together for the first time. Every subsequent Bond film has tried to emulate it.

    It has everything from a knockout theme song to a fantastic villain - Oddjob.

    and that fabulous Fort Knox set. Ken Adam's main achievement, except possibly for the volcano set in You Only Live Twice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...

    People say it's one of the best Bond films.
    One of the top three, I reckon: alongside From Russia With Love and Casino Royale.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Honor Blackman looks pretty good considering she was 38 when it was filmed.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...

    People say it's one of the best Bond films.
    Nicely scored, acted and photographed, but pure hokum, unlike From Russia with Love, Thunderball or OHMSS which all had a vestige of plausibility...
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...

    People say it's one of the best Bond films.
    It's the best, the shortest, and the one where all the components of a Bond film came together for the first time. Every subsequent Bond film has tried to emulate it.

    It has everything from a knockout theme song to a fantastic villain - Oddjob.

    and that fabulous Fort Knox set. Ken Adam's main achievement, except possibly for the volcano set in You Only Live Twice.
    Best car also. And the line "No Mr Bond, I expect you to die."
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Honor Blackman looks pretty good considering she was 38 when it was filmed.

    I was 13 when Goldfinger came out, but I knew her from The Avengers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Connery was apparently filming the Hitchcock movie Marnie at the same time as Goldfinger.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited January 2016
    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    "Goldfinger" starting on ITV now...

    People say it's one of the best Bond films.
    It's the best, the shortest, and the one where all the components of a Bond film came together for the first time. Every subsequent Bond film has tried to emulate it.

    It has everything from a knockout theme song to a fantastic villain - Oddjob.

    and that fabulous Fort Knox set. Ken Adam's main achievement, except possibly for the volcano set in You Only Live Twice.
    Best car also. And the line "No Mr Bond, I expect you to die."
    Yes, the car. "The most famous car in the world". It went on its own world publicity tour. It's still with us. BMT216A was in the last shot of Spectre. For many years I had the Corgi model.

    What about the line "Shocking. Positively shocking."
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
  • Justin Welby is making the beardy weirdy Rowan Williams seem right wing and sensible....no wonder the church is in terminal decline.
  • Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    They still don't have nationwide play-offs though right, to decide the "national" college champion?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    They still don't have nationwide play-offs though right, to decide the "national" college champion?
    They have a committee that from halfway through the season ranks the top 25 teams weekly. There are 119 FBS college teams.

    At the end of the season the top 4 teams play off. They are tonight - number 1 Clemson beat No.4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and #2 Alabama is leading #3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at half time by 10 - 0.

    The final is on Jan 11th.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    Yes, and that's silly. If you're stuck in an unfashionable and unhyped conference you might not be allowed to show how good you are.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    They still don't have nationwide play-offs though right, to decide the "national" college champion?
    They have a committee that from halfway through the season ranks the top 25 teams weekly. There are 119 FBS college teams.

    At the end of the season the top 4 teams play off. They are tonight - number 1 Clemson beat No.4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and #2 Alabama is leading #3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at half time by 10 - 0.

    The final is on Jan 11th.
    The rankings are decided by committee? Barmy!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2016
    Tim_B said:


    They have a committee that from halfway through the season ranks the top 25 teams weekly. There are 119 FBS college teams.

    At the end of the season the top 4 teams play off. They are tonight - number 1 Clemson beat No.4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and #2 Alabama is leading #3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at half time by 10 - 0.

    The final is on Jan 11th.

    Why don't they just go the whole hog and do as the NFL does and have say a 16 team play-off? The college basketball play-offs (March Madness) are a huge draw are they not?

    I just can't get into something where some smoke filled room decides which are the 4 best teams and they play-off. And this is fairly new, right? A one point there was what felt like 20 different "Bowls", where teams played off, but never the best across the whole country would meet.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    Yes, and that's silly. If you're stuck in an unfashionable and unhyped conference you might not be allowed to show how good you are.
    Because you're not very good. If you're in an unfashionable unhyped conference you're not going to be able to recruit players like the Power 5 Conferences can ( the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, the Pac-12, and the SEC).
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    They still don't have nationwide play-offs though right, to decide the "national" college champion?
    They have a committee that from halfway through the season ranks the top 25 teams weekly. There are 119 FBS college teams.

    At the end of the season the top 4 teams play off. They are tonight - number 1 Clemson beat No.4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and #2 Alabama is leading #3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at half time by 10 - 0.

    The final is on Jan 11th.
    The rankings are decided by committee? Barmy!!
    They used to do it by computer and everyone hated it. So they came up with this.

    There's no good way to do this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Happy New Year to all PBers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    The first part of my nightmare is in place - Clemson just won the Orange Bowl in Miami.

    Now attention moves to Jerry World aka the Jones Mahal, where Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. Bama is a 10 point favorite.

    Clemson and Alabama have been my favorite college teams for decades.

    I dread watching them play each other for the national championship.

    I am quite into the NFL but it's much harder to get interested in college football if you're not actually American or US resident, I think.
    I think that's true. College football is about passion, emotion, tradition and pageantry. When you go to a Clemson game and they paint Tiger paws on both cheeks on your face, it makes sense because everyone else is doing it too.

    At Alabama the 'million dollar band' comes out before the game and spells BAMA on the field.
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    They still don't have nationwide play-offs though right, to decide the "national" college champion?
    They have a committee that from halfway through the season ranks the top 25 teams weekly. There are 119 FBS college teams.

    At the end of the season the top 4 teams play off. They are tonight - number 1 Clemson beat No.4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and #2 Alabama is leading #3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at half time by 10 - 0.

    The final is on Jan 11th.
    The rankings are decided by committee? Barmy!!
    They used to do it by computer and everyone hated it. So they came up with this.

    There's no good way to do this.
    I suppose not, not without playing a load more games. I hope when the computer was doing it, the results were announced as Deep Thought announced the answer to the great question :D
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Happy New Year to all PBers.

    and to you too!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Wanderer said:

    Tim_B said:

    .
    .
    The problem is that I have no idea who the players coming out in the draft are each year.
    That's one good reason to follow college football!

    If you don't live in the US it's probably difficult to do so.
    College football is, as far as I know, unique in that a team can win every game it plays and still not be the champion. Which is a bit silly, really.
    Not really. If you are in the SEC and win every game you will be ahead of someone in the PAC 12 who wins every game. It's about strength of schedule. If you are in the SEC you play tough conference games. Other conferences not so much. Michigan and Ohio State are SEC quality in the Big 10.

    That's why there is now a committee to decide the 4 teams in the playoff.
    They still don't have nationwide play-offs though right, to decide the "national" college champion?
    They have a committee that from halfway through the season ranks the top 25 teams weekly. There are 119 FBS college teams.

    At the end of the season the top 4 teams play off. They are tonight - number 1 Clemson beat No.4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, and #2 Alabama is leading #3 Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at half time by 10 - 0.

    The final is on Jan 11th.
    The rankings are decided by committee? Barmy!!
    They used to do it by computer and everyone hated it. So they came up with this.

    There's no good way to do this.
    I suppose not, not without playing a load more games. I hope when the computer was doing it, the results were announced as Deep Thought announced the answer to the great question :D
    Somehow, 42 never made it to the playoffs.

    Remember college football is worth billions a year. It's a big business. Every college sports program, from golf to baseball to lacrosse, loses money. Football pays for all of it and then some. Top coaches earn $6-8 million a year or more.

    Everybody earns money at college football - except the players. That seems wrong somehow.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Happy New Year everyone - and goodnight.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Happy New Year everyone.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The nightmare is here - Alabama leading Michigan State 38-0 with 3 minutes to play.

    So it's Bama v Clemson.

    Bugger
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tim_B said:

    The nightmare is here - Alabama leading Michigan State 38-0 with 3 minutes to play.

    So it's Bama v Clemson.

    Bugger

    First world problems
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    No midnight fireworks round here last night, though I'm not sure what that signifies.

    Happy 2016.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    No midnight fireworks round here last night, though I'm not sure what that signifies.

    Happy 2016.

    Time to get some hearing aids, perhaps? :D
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    But plenty of celebratory fireworks here in central Hackney last night, though I really can't see why.

    Still, Happy New Year to all PBers and friends. May you all prosper in 2016.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited January 2016
    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/682828698282758144
    India’s Finance Minister has said that his country “does not require” British aid, describing it as “peanuts”.
    British overseas aid is there just to make cameron feel good!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Nothing like having small children! Awake 7am, every day. :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morning all and a Happy New Year to all. I expect that I'll be ruefully explaining in a year's time why many of these didn't come to pass.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Dave, George and Boris. It was said that David Cameron fears the health effects that prolonged spells at the top had on Wilson, Thatcher and arguably Blair. Is this still salient or now outweighed by a pretty nice lifestyle and no obvious ambition beyond Number Ten?

    Osborne was said to be aware of his own unelectability as Prime Minister but now the Conservative leader has only to be better than Corbyn, he is surely more likely to stand.

    If Boris is to be a serious candidate for Prime Minister, he urgently needs to get some cabinet experience, but there is no obvious vacancy and no reason for Cameron (or Osborne) to promote him. The next best thing might be the EU referendum, where he is one of the few whose media profile outshines Farage.

    So the prediction is that Boris will lead the EU referendum campaign (and it does not really matter which side).

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Things that won't happen: Corbyn's night of the long knives; Diane as Shadow FS.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Urquhart, what's the Archsocialist done now?

    Goldfinger is an excellent Bond.

    Happy New Year etc. The hound was a bit put out by the fireworks, but there didn't seem to be that many this year (possibly due to rain).
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    A Happy New Year to all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    On the predictions, I think 3 is debatable. UKIP have a track record of failing to convert polling shares into seats. That said, their main opposition this time is Welsh Labour, when UK Labour is led by Corbyn.

    The suggested Leave percentage is more or less in line with my own view. I think Remain will win by a substantial margin.

    Point 10's a bit of a soft point. Nobody's suggested the Conservatives splitting. Despite the sound reasons for it, not many are even suggesting Labour splitting, and they're led by an unreconstructed 1980s Communist sympathiser, the sort of buffoon who isn't happy about suicide bombers being shot dead.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited January 2016
    Looking at AM's meat, the following points strike me:-

    (5) No. Goldsmith will win, people won't want a Muslim Mayor.

    (7/8) I notice AM doesn't define "low". There was a 65% turnout in 1975; I doubt it will reach 60% this time. The 20-25% of the electorate that is on the left will largely abstain as both campaigns focus on the right-wing voters.

    (10) I don't understand DC's plan. It's logical to stand down after winning the referendum or after the next General Election, but not really at any time between. I expect him to stay on, because his Party doesn't really have anyone else.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Happy New Year All!

    No fireworks down here - unless my brandy and champers log-like sleep missed them... It lashed with rain/hail all evening.

    I'm not sure about Cameron's serious-face NY message - all a bit grim. Welby's was just too intense - all dog collar serial killer.

    Brendan Barbar is drowning on Sky - he's head of ACAS, saying he doesn't have a view on the EU ref - then contradicting himself and saying why leaving the EU is a bad idea - as he's a former union boss... Should have stayed in bed, me thinks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Abroad, Mr. Meeks did reference at least the turnout of a General Election being achieved.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Thank you Mr Meeks - it's always a good exercise just because so much changes each year this sort of thread gives us a record of what we were thinking at this point in time.

    I still think there's a chance the referendum won't happen this year, but if it does then I agree that September seems likely. Another summer of migrants trekking across Europe and trouble at Calais may make things interesting. I suspect Remain will win - but maybe not by quite as much as 60:40.

    We don't tend to hear much about Wales, but Labour losing it's majority (if you can call 30/60 seats a majority) seems probable. One stat from the General Election that hasn't had as much coverage as it deserves is that in Wales Ukip received more votes than Plaid Cymru. I don't know quite how well Ukip will do, but I guess they can expect an AM or two.
  • Morris Dancer [8.16] No. Corbyn is an unreformed Trotskyist. Very different from a Communist.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,523
    Happy New Year everyone.
  • 'Toss-of-the-coin' predictions: I have some coins to parley; I just need to find the right [MODERATED!!!]....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,523
    MikeK said:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/682828698282758144
    India’s Finance Minister has said that his country “does not require” British aid, describing it as “peanuts”.
    British overseas aid is there just to make cameron feel good!

    That story is from 2012 ...

    Slightly more up to date: "Britain will be ending bilateral aid to India by the end of this year." (2015)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-34398449

    Not that I expect Kippers to bother learning anything about foreign aid ...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited January 2016
    A happy New Year to everyone.

    In this season of goodwill, I began to wonder why I dislike Corbyn and his acolytes so much.

    Some of their policies are reasonable. I like the idea of saying what you think and I approve of some of the economic ideas. I used to vote Labour and possibly could be brought back, but Jezza .... sheesh!

    I'd put it down to three things ...

    (1) Moral Superiority. They know the are better than the rest of us. The are cleverer and have better judgement. They cannot be wrong. The sin of Pride.

    (2) Lack of logic. They always support the underdog, a noble aim, but they are choosy about the underdog. Stereotyping is always wrong, yet Americans are thick because they don't always agree with them, and they're always wrong. Homophobia is always wrong, unless it's Islamic.

    (3) Absolutism. "I've never kissed a Tory". Embarrassing. Would an eighteen-year-old boy ask a gorgeous woman what her politics are? Only in Jezza land. Everyone who doesn't agree with them is the enemy. Hilary Benn is a fascist.

    The three traits add up to those of a spoilt child - the it's not fair and I know I'm right and everyone else is wrong and I want it cos I want it attitude.

    Golding was writing about them when he won his Nobel prize. Voting for Jezza is voting to live in a society based on "Lord of the Flies."

    No, thanks.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    (7/8) I notice AM doesn't define "low". There was a 65% turnout in 1975; I doubt it will reach 60% this time. The 20-25% of the electorate that is on the left will largely abstain as both campaigns focus on the right-wing voters.

    I think this is an interesting point. Much of the debate about the EU tends to be from a pragmatic point of view. It will be interesting to see how the Remain campaign sell the City of London angle. I can see right of centre voters being swung to Remain by arguments about the damage to big business - but will it enthuse those on the Left?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Morning all. Hope the hangovers aren't too bad. I think I'm still drunk and it's after midday here! Well done to @AlastairMeeks again putting his predictions out there in public. #1 and #7 I agree with, but all the others could plausibly fall either way so fair play in making them. It will certainly be a very interesting political year, maybe even more so than 2015 with big divisions in both major parties yet seemingly little real opposition to either of them.

    If I were to make one prediction it would be for a Labour split - i just can't see the moderate, electable Blairite MPs, who see politics as a game to win, put up with Corbyn for 12 months more.

    May everyone have a happy, successful and prosperous 2016!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 86, TTIP should be used by Leave to persuade those on the left of the EU's wicked ways.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Sandpit, splitting requires some courage and organisation, though.

    The chaps and ladies who want to win may consider (and it won't hurt that this is the softer, easier, lazier option) that just waiting for Corbyn to fail will give them a chance to retake the leadership.

    Of course, he'll have completely rewritten the rule book by then...
  • CD13 said:

    A happy New Year to everyone.

    In this season of goodwill, I began to wonder why I dislike Corbyn and his acolytes so much.

    Some of their policies are reasonable. I like the idea of saying what you think and I approve of some of the economic ideas. I used to vote Labour and possibly could be brought back, but Jezza .... sheesh!

    I'd put it down to three things ...

    (1) Moral Superiority. They know the are better than the rest of us. The are cleverer and have better judgement. They cannot be wrong. The sin of Pride.

    (2) Lack of logic. They always support the underdog, a noble aim, but they are choosy about the underdog. Stereotyping is always wrong, yet Americans are thick because they don't always agree with them, and they're always wrong. Homophobia is always wrong, unless it's Islamic.

    (3) Absolutism. "I've never kissed a Tory". Embarrassing. Would an eighteen-year-old boy ask a gorgeous woman what her politics are? Only in Jezza land. Everyone who doesn't agree with them is the enemy. Hilary Benn is a fascist.

    The three traits add up to those of a spoilt child - the it's not fair and I know I'm right and everyone else is wrong and I want it cos I want it attitude.

    Golding was writing about them when he won his Nobel prize. Voting for Jezza is voting to live in a society based on "Lord of the Flies."

    No, thanks.

    Spot on. If my Labour MP seeks re-election, I'll give her my vote (as I did last time) but it will be for her and not JC.

  • Mr. 86, TTIP should be used by Leave to persuade those on the left of the EU's wicked ways.

    TTIP is certainly an argument against voting "yes" but voting "no", in the sure and certain knowledge that Nigel Barage-Buffoon will claim it as support for him and his kidney? I don't think so.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2016
    Good Morning and Happy New Year to one and all.

    The Labour party might not split but there might be defections to the LD's. I seriously worry about the right of the Tory party taking over as pointed out by Antifrank. I would have to abstain... which is why I think Dave might stay,
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Mr. 86, TTIP should be used by Leave to persuade those on the left of the EU's wicked ways.

    TTIP is certainly an argument against voting "yes" but voting "no", in the sure and certain knowledge that Nigel Barage-Buffoon will claim it as support for him and his kidney? I don't think so.

    I was out on Christmas Eve and got talking to someone wearing a badge that said "TTIP free zone". Unbelievably excited about this I quickly asked "will you be voting to leave the EU?" She said no but I can't remember her reasoning (I was quite drunk at the time). The Left probably still view the EU as a way of getting socialism by the back door.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 86, *sighs*.

    That's as bad as people who loathe the EU but won't vote to leave because that's what Farage wants.

    Not to mention that circumventing democracy isn't exactly burnishing one's political credentials.
  • tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, TTIP should be used by Leave to persuade those on the left of the EU's wicked ways.

    TTIP is certainly an argument against voting "yes" but voting "no", in the sure and certain knowledge that Nigel Barage-Buffoon will claim it as support for him and his kidney? I don't think so.

    I was out on Christmas Eve and got talking to someone wearing a badge that said "TTIP free zone". Unbelievably excited about this I quickly asked "will you be voting to leave the EU?" She said no but I can't remember her reasoning (I was quite drunk at the time). The Left probably still view the EU as a way of getting socialism by the back door.
    I had supposed that's what the libertarian Right thought!

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited January 2016

    Things that won't happen: Corbyn's night of the long knives; Diane as Shadow FS.

    That you did this at all, let alone return to your previous puts you above most so-called informed commentators. When one sees the buckets of sh@t being poured on Dan Hodges for having an opinion and sticking to it (and an opinion which Could have been career limiting) one is less than impressed with the Toynbees and Heffers of the world.

    Edit: oops, replying to Alistair Meeks....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Mr. 86, *sighs*.

    That's as bad as people who loathe the EU but won't vote to leave because that's what Farage wants.

    Not to mention that circumventing democracy isn't exactly burnishing one's political credentials.

    So they might not vote to leave, but will they turn out to vote to remain? This is why turnout is important. I tend to agree with you that it feels that Remain should win comfortably, but it doesn't always work out like that.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Powerful comment from Ms Philips in the Times re politicians ignoring reality - and TV shows exposing ugly truths instead. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4653757.ece

    She's a fan of Homeland, Breaking Bad and House of Cards [US]
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I agree with AM on 6 7 and 8.

    Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.

    The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.

    The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!

    Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, *sighs*.

    That's as bad as people who loathe the EU but won't vote to leave because that's what Farage wants.

    Not to mention that circumventing democracy isn't exactly burnishing one's political credentials.

    So they might not vote to leave, but will they turn out to vote to remain? This is why turnout is important. I tend to agree with you that it feels that Remain should win comfortably, but it doesn't always work out like that.
    I think that the number of hardcore Leavers outnumber the hardcore Remains, and therefore turnout will be important.

    If Leave coalesced around EFTA/EEA, then I think it probably would win, because a lot of businesses would prefer that to be inside the SEA, but with lower and tax and regulatory burdens. However, because I suspect Leave is going to be myopically focused on immigration, it will lose the ability to pick up the votes of much of the 20% of the country that wants a Norwegian type relationship with the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Powerful comment from Ms Philips in the Times re politicians ignoring reality - and TV shows exposing ugly truths instead. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4653757.ece

    She's a fan of Homeland, Breaking Bad and House of Cards [US]

    I have ultra-Zionist Jewish friends who regard Malanie Philips as an extremist.
  • I agree with AM on 6 7 and 8.

    Which explains why most people on-site try not to fall-ill in Leicestershire....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Foxinsox, I think the constitutional issue only arises if Scotland (the only bit that's recently been polled on independence) made the difference. If England had a 30,000 Leave majority but Wales/Northern Ireland were 200,000 in favour of Remain, what Scotland does [barring an inexplicable Leave majority] doesn't affect things in a constitutional sense.

    If the UK ex-Scotland has a 100,000 Leave majority, and Scotland has a 150,000 Remain majority, that may provoke some consternation.

    I think every bit save England is guaranteed to be for Remain, and England will likely go that way too, albeit by a lower percentage.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I agree with AM on 6 7 and 8.

    Which explains why most people on-site try not to fall-ill in Leicestershire....
    Lets hear your predictions then!

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    I agree with AM on 6 7 and 8.

    Shadsy has bands up for remain and I think the 60-65% band at 8/1 is good value.

    The odds seem weighted to it being close, but the polls are pretty poor and infested with cyber-kippers and do not deserve much weight. I think that there is value at both extremes of Shadsys bands.

    The consensus at the GE was for a hung parliament, and the money to be made was at the extreme positions. I bet heavily on the Lab 226-250 band on the basis of Jacks ARSE. I got slightly twitchy as the night wore on that they wouldnt make 226!

    Shadsy also has Remain/Leave by home nation. He clearly expects a strong remain vote everywhere but much tighter in England. England for Leave; the rest for Remain would make for a constitutional crisis, but I think England will dodge that by going for Remain too.

    I think if you're confident of a strong Remain vote then I say go for it. As you say, there's a tendency to expect these votes to be close.

    On the different countries, I don't think there would be a crisis if England votes to leave and the others don't. Ultimately they are just regions of the UK and my vote in England is worth the same as vote by someone in Dundee. I actually expect there to be little difference between England and Wales.
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