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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » British politics 2016 in one word: Europe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » British politics 2016 in one word: Europe
Can 2016 live up to the excitement that last year gave us? Remarkably, it could. Internationally, the extremely interesting year-long elections in the US may well produce the first female president of the United States (albeit the wife of a former president), and if not, could well put an untested populist with no political experience in the White House.
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Only in pockets of the South and East Anglia and in tiny patches in the Midlands, it is below 75%.
Us leaving the EU would not help resolve either issue either. To solve the debt problem Greeks would have to behave like North Europeans in terms of i dividual financial responsibility. To solve the migrant crisis we need for peace and prosperity to break out in the Middle East and North Africa.
Until these happen, the issue will bumble on much as they are, whether we are in the EU or not. The migrants at Calais are not going to disappear if we left the EU. A radical rewrite of the refugee conventions would be needed for any progress on that.
Andy will be happy. Wind producing 23% of UK electricity right now.
Biomass 5.81%. Solar 0% [ this is before sunrise: nothing wrong with solar panels before the sceptics start writing in ]
http://energinet.dk/EN/El/Sider/Elsystemet-lige-nu.aspx
In Denmark, on the other hand, wind is actually producing more than current consumption. Big "exports" to Norway and Sweden but also substantial imports from Germany.
I note Dair has sgopped boasting about how much better Scotland manages rainfall...
The Gulf including the Saudis are conspicuous by the complete absence of taking in any refugees. I was in Dubai last month and heard that they have taken in about 100,000. But usually these people brought their Ferraris or fat wallets with them.
In other news, I quite enjoyed the new Star Wars. If you can, the 3D IMAX is great!
A good point about the Gulf states, although to be fair they are dealing with their own problems in Yemen, which is closer to home for them. There's lots of Syrians in Dubai but as you say they are mainly professional expatriates rather than refugees - although I have come across a few recently working as taxi drivers, a job done traditionally by Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans, as it pays only a couple of hundred dollars a week.
You miss the point. Having a high percentage of generation by wind is meaningless if we still need conventional power stations for times when wind is generating next to nothing. It just adds massive costs on to consumers' bills. They are also much less efficient that promised, as they 'forgot' some rather obvious fundamentals. (1)
(It would be good if we could get figures, especially real-time, for generation from individual wind farms. Technically this should be very easy, as the figures will be known by both the generators and the grid)
Energy security is what matters, and wind has a place within that. But too much wind power can be problematic, as Germany is finding out. Until the peaks and troughs can be levelled out, by either pan-Europe grid or storage, then wind is an expensive mess.
(1): http://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2013/02/rethinking-wind-power
twitter.com/NetworkRailGLC/status/682508357954068480?s=09 (URL amended)
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/12/daniel-hannan-2.html
Despite all the headlines, the world in 2016 is richer, better educated and more peaceful than ever.
I don't recall many "J-CJICIECP" when he was up for nomination though
What would be good is a covering market on DC to campaign for Leave, there was the one on who will lead the campaign in the debate but that's not quite the same.
I'm interested in what Cameron (and, indeed, Osborne) would do if it appeared that Remain was in serious trouble, especially if matters drag on into 2017.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_by_country
David Herdson's thread only confirms my suspicion (my forecast for 2016 yesterday), that Cameron will delay the EU referendum for as long as possible, possibly until spring 2017, because of adverse polling this spring and summer.
However, if LEAVE lose the referendum, Cameron could still stay on, fighting to delay a Brexit especially if Boris, now a free spirit, is fighting to gain the leadership of the tory party and hence the premiership.
It is also possible that many supporters of STAY in the civil service will work to sabotage a smooth exit from the EU. I can see plenty of reasons for Cameron staying on until 2020, barring sudden ill health.
I wonder if Osborne's the one in trouble. He's near certain to support Remain, but that could mean thwarting his leadership becomes a way of burnishing one's sceptical credentials.
Do you guys really rate Sajid Javid ? Hardly anyone knows him.
It's sad to see a lefty wanting to kill our industry and plunge more people into poverty by increasing fuel bills more than they need to be. Those 'billions and billions' need to come from somewhere ...
(*) I am against upland wind farms, as has been discussed passim. But I have few problems with lowland ones, and I live within a few miles of a large windfarm.
I particularly liked this line of DH "The problem there is that the EU is useless at resolving issues; its preferred modus operandi for problems is to muddle through, taking as long as necessary until the problem goes away."
Muddling through? How British is that! We have had our influence on the EU after all!
As @SouthamObserver suggests the campaign will most likely generate more heat than light, although at the end of the day Germany will still want to sell us cars and Airbus will still make planes in the UK, so in or out of the EU a trade agreement of sorts will happen.
You're right that Leavers are implicitly accepting the removal of Cameron as a consequence of their desired result but I don't think all that many are 'campaigning' for it as such; more viewing it as acceptable collateral damage.
Would they stay if Remain wins? It won't help their career prospects but Cameron has to also recognise the reality that a large proportion - possibly a comfortable majority - of Tory voters, never mind Tory members, are keen to leave the EU. He cannot launch a war against them any more than Corbyn can purge the PLP of his opponents, and for the same reason: an alternate shadow cabinet on his own backbenches poses too great a threat to his own authority.
I just think he comes across as a bit weird and geekish.
Cameron doesn't have an option if it appeared that Remain was in serious trouble: his BOO backbenchers will see to that. It's the sort of trigger that would produce letters of No Confidence.
A party-leader needs to be an election-winner, able to connect with the public and inspire their confidence. Able to manage his party.
A Prime Minister needs to be good at running a government and might have something like a vision for the country (advanced candidates only).
Of course, in the long-term a good party-leader (of a major party) will become PM anyway.
But there isn't a blank sheet: the referendum and his promise to stand down both get in the way. So the question is who's the best of the alternatives? Javid has so far proven adequate rather than exceptional but I think would make a much better front man than Osborne (though as noted by others, if Leave does win then Osborne could be stymied by his support for Stay anyway). If Stay wins, I'd probably be inclined to Hammond as much as anyone right now: boring, true, but boring is not necessarily a bad thing if you already have the glow of office surrounding you.
And yes, if it's a close Leave than I do expect Stay-ers to point to the vote being won by racist and xenophobic arguments, or the like.
Of course it was more important who was not elected as PM and there is a long list of them!
Miliband in large part lost Labour the election. A steady, dull sort (perhaps called Darling) would've done much better. Corbyn now is tearing Labour apart.
Javid has as much charisma as Yvette Cooper. Never seem him perform well on the TV - and he looks oddly like an alien in a nice suit. One of Yoda's nephew's perhaps. Just no.
Dave nealy won and became PM because Brown was a disaster (they were recovering from a really weak position) and won again because Ed was crap
So they chose a guy who would sit down with Hamas rather than a ham sandwich. What could possibly go wrong?
It is nearly too late to announce a June referendum already, and a September one would be the other option, and likely to leave little time for "renegotiation", and plenty of time for a summer of migrant chaos.
By the end of the summer, and pending German Federal elections in 2017, the mood in Europe may well have tilted Camerons way on a number of issues. A spring 2017 election may then look attractive.
I suspect they would treat a vote for Brexit as the opening salvoes in a renegotiation. The current effort will be seen as no more than Cameron dropping his trousers and mooning them.
Former trader Tom Hayes on learning to survive in prison https://t.co/bL9MIzPk5A via @harrynwilson @TimesMagazine https://t.co/K6SivLccl7
But I'd like to put an alternative scenario. Most people are demonstrably not very interested at the moment, despite years of pretty intense debate. I think one could even make a case that most people are already bored by the referendum, and will get more so as the campaign finally starts. They will be bemused and mildly irritated as the whole political class starts obsessing about it.
For those of us who do care, the question is what those bored people will do. I think most will probably vote in the end, and will probably vote Remain, but that's just a gut feeling. Is there polling data on "certain to vote in the EU referendum"?
@RacingPost: ITV’s main channel will screen at least 34 fixtures a year under its new deal, which runs from 2017-2020
@RacingPost: 60 will be on ITV4, which will also broadcast a magazine preview programme each Saturday morning
"And that’s what will be at the heart of the referendum: who will be believed most? Claim and counter-claim will be rife, with both sides making exaggerated claims about the costs should the other side win".
........Having just returned from Venice I wondered how anyone could fail to be excited that such a magical city is now part of our extended family of nations. Europe is such a wonderful eclectic place that we should embrace it as tightly as we can. It's future should be our future.
For the debate to be reduced to nickels and dimes is very depressing. We're such philistines
The people of the UK may well not like the EU exit terms, particularly if wanting to stay in the EEA, but the deed would be done.
The EU referendum should be a chance for Labour to get back in the game. It should show a divided Tory party obsessively focussed on slightly obscure and confusing issues. The Tories were like this in the early years of the century and unelectable as a result. But they have chosen to be led by a Muppet so the chance will likely pass them by.
For Cameron and Osborne in particular there will be a strong desire to get this off the table and get back to issues on which the Tories can win elections. David may be right that the EU will not necessarily be helpful on this in their reluctance to reach decisions and the focus on the continuing problems of the EZ and immigration but he will want to push it through if he possibly can and Osborne will be his point negotiator to achieve this.
I think DH is completely wrong (a rarity for him!) In believing that a result either way would "lance the boil" within the Tory party over Europe. That is no surgical lancet, that is a stake through the heart!
Supporters of all other UK parties from UKIP to Greens will make the most out of Tory contortions and deliberate self harm over the issue.
Yes - I have read. Based on my knowledge of him and others who have given equally "poor me" interviews, I treat such articles as largely fictional.
A more interesting article would be about those harmed by the activities of people like him - and by "harm" I don't mean the loss of bonus. Fraud is never a victimless crime. It's deeply corrosive of trust and the sentences for it in this country are, still, far too low, both in theory and in practice.
Never bothered with Aitken's - anyone read that?
Changing the subject slightly, I do chuckle at some of the prediction posts on here, it seems some otherwise rational posters confuse predictions with wish lists. Just because I want Spurs to win the league doesn't mean I think they will.
I've long thought Leave had a chance, before I supported Leave in fact, and the pessimism of some on that side about Cameron 'fixing' the referendum I thought was unwarranted (he will of course claim any deal is a decent one, but there are enough media and Tory figures who will take the alternate view for the public to consider the matter carefully), but I'd still give Remain the edge. Fear will trump low level dissatisfaction in the end I think.
Lay-the-draw is as low as 3.65 on Betfair, seems generous with no rain forecast for the next four days and a small chance of the odd shower on day 5
http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/SFXX0010:1:SF
Student cheating seems endemic.
That being said, as I've repeated approximately 1,000,000 times on here, there is little to no risk of brown-outs, black-outs, etc in the UK, even with all the coal and nuclear plants going off stream. We are simply going to have quite a lot of Open Cycle Gas Turbines (which have very low capital cost, but quite high running costs) installed.
Despite the hopes/fears of others, the German electorate has wrinkled its brow a bit but on the whole stayed loyal to the Government. Other countries have to put up with the awkward consequences of people trying to get there, and still would if the EU didn't exist.
That said, I wonder if the Syrian conflict isn't winding down. ISIS is clearly on the defensive, and everyone else is edging towards some sort of deal. Possibly 2016 will see the collapse of the Caliphate and an uneasy, squabbling cease-fire like the Ukraine, and the pressure of refugees will somewhat ease. If so, then muddling through may turn out to have been the best strategy, as it often is - as Fox points out, it's the traditional British way too.
If I was elected your dictator for life, this is what I’d ban in 2016
I don't care about his point 2 (slimline tonic water) except where it applies to semi-skimmed milk. A few splashes of proper milk would ruin someone's health? Give me a break.
Also this one
Signs that begin: ‘For your comfort and convenience…’ before forbidding you from doing something that, actually, you’d find both comforting and convenient.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/will-you-survive-the-delingpole-era/
I share with roger the joy of pan european culture, and am proud of the part we have played in joining the former soviet sattelites firmly into the European mainstream.
(Though of course Venice is not the best example, it was the Venetian merchants who schemed against the Byzantines for their own ends, and smashed that bastion of Christendom along with the Crusaders)