Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader

The attack in the video above on Ed Miliband during the general election campaign was absolutely brutal and deeply personal but the most important thing for both the Tories and Labour, it was an utterly devastating for Ed Miliband and Labour. With 71% of voters not trusting Corbyn to safeguard Britain’s national security you can see the Tories repeating their attacks on Corbyn and the risks he presents to national security.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Is this a joke?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?
    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    It is interesting to note that Nick Palmer went radio silent when it turned out that Corbyn had voted against the Anglo Irish Agreement.

    There's alot more where that came from.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2016
    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    It's flood news day:
    Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map

    BBC Business ‏@BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
    PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf

    Pure coincidence.
  • kle4 said:

    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?

    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
    I tipped Sajid Javid back in 2014 at 50/1 as next PM, he's now trading as low as 8/1.

    Thatcher was 50/1 less than six months before she became Tory leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?

    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
    I tipped Sajid Javid back in 2014 at 50/1 as next PM, he's now trading as low as 8/1.

    Thatcher was 50/1 less than six months before she became Tory leader.
    Indeed so. Not sure Fallon's chances will be deemed to get much better, but as 'senior person who is not one of the others', there has to be a chance they will.
  • Evidently there will be at least one "continuity candidate" in 2020. IS Fallon supposed to pitch for that, against Osborne, Javid, etc? Or pitch for the "outside" candidate role, against Johnson (and maybe May)? It is difficult to see him in either role - his chance is somehow to come through with the partial benefits of both.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?

    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
    I tipped Sajid Javid back in 2014 at 50/1 as next PM, he's now trading as low as 8/1.

    Thatcher was 50/1 less than six months before she became Tory leader.
    Indeed so. Not sure Fallon's chances will be deemed to get much better, but as 'senior person who is not one of the others', there has to be a chance they will.
    Poor Tim Farron has people getting his name wrong enough as it is!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?

    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
    He's like John Major just without charisma, more grey and more sleepy
    If he faces Corbyn it will be a snorefest.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2016
    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    What do you expect on the first sunday after the two week Christmas & New Year Break. The most, most people are doing is trying to forget that tomorrow is an early start and back to the daily grind
  • Winston McKenzie to enter the Big Brother house?

    I clearly missed that earlier...
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    It's flood news day:
    Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map

    BBC Business ‏@BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
    PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf

    Pure coincidence.
    £40m is for York flood defences. Do keep up.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    eek said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    What do you expect on the first sunday after the two week Christmas & New Year Break. The most, most people are doing is trying to forget that tomorrow is an early start and back to the daily grind
    January is grey drizzle, diets, abstinence, bills and tax returns.

    A great month for us Puritans!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?

    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
    He's like John Major just without charisma, more grey and more sleepy
    If he faces Corbyn it will be a snorefest.
    No it will not.. Corbyn will be even more disastrous than ED was, people will be laughing , not snoring...

    Go and ask a few Labour voters what they think of Corbyn, or if you cannot be arsed, I'll tell you,..... they think he is bonkers.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (FPT)
    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:
    What a stupid man. They are safer in the UK than in Iraq where they would have been almost certainly looted/destroyed and potentially lost forever.
    "Stupid"? That's the whole point of the tweet, you dilly booliak.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pretty useless interviewer.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    It's flood news day:
    Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map

    BBC Business ‏@BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
    PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf

    Pure coincidence.
    Yes correct for once. The govt are spending 3 billion on flood defences. Its probably all wasted as the water will just go elsewhere. Or it will stop raining.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Would be the oldest new PM since Chamberlain in 1937...
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    It's flood news day:
    Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map

    BBC Business ‏@BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
    PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf

    Pure coincidence.
    Yes correct for once. The govt are spending 3 billion on flood defences. Its probably all wasted as the water will just go elsewhere. Or it will stop raining.
    £3bn on flood defences, that seems an awful lot of money

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    BB63 ..An awful lot of water.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    Winston McKenzie to enter the Big Brother house?

    I clearly missed that earlier...

    Which party will he be representing?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Five predictions from the New Statesman correspondent. Doesn't look out of place with what most people here think except for the last one - "Britain will leave the European Union".
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/01/five-predictions-what-will-happen-politics-2016
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    BB63 ..An awful lot of water.....

    Yes but I'm interested to know over what period of time, how and where the money is spent. Sounds to me like plucking a figure out of the air.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    edited January 2016

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    It's flood news day:
    Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map

    BBC Business ‏@BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
    PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf

    Pure coincidence.
    Yes correct for once. The govt are spending 3 billion on flood defences. Its probably all wasted as the water will just go elsewhere. Or it will stop raining.
    £3bn on flood defences, that seems an awful lot of money

    Bit like the badgers changing their tactics.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    rcs1000 said:

    Winston McKenzie to enter the Big Brother house?

    I clearly missed that earlier...

    Which party will he be representing?
    Raving Loony, it's difficult to dislike Winston but he's a crackpot.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    It's flood news day:
    Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map

    BBC Business ‏@BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
    PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf

    Pure coincidence.
    Yes correct for once. The govt are spending 3 billion on flood defences. Its probably all wasted as the water will just go elsewhere. Or it will stop raining.
    £3bn on flood defences, that seems an awful lot of money

    Bit like the badgers changing their tactics.
    Eh?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    rcs1000 said:

    Winston McKenzie to enter the Big Brother house?

    I clearly missed that earlier...

    Which party will he be representing?
    Raving Loony, it's difficult to dislike Winston but he's a crackpot.
    :lol:

    Yes: likable but bonkers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Five predictions from the New Statesman correspondent. Doesn't look out of place with what most people here think except for the last one - "Britain will leave the European Union".
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/01/five-predictions-what-will-happen-politics-2016

    Those predictions looks excellent for a pundit. I think he'll get 4 out of 5 - Brexit is clearly odds against.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    Five predictions from the New Statesman correspondent. Doesn't look out of place with what most people here think except for the last one - "Britain will leave the European Union".
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/01/five-predictions-what-will-happen-politics-2016

    Britain clearly will not leave the European Union in 2016; it may however vote for Brexit. An actual formal departure would probably not happen until 2020, even assuming that a vote happens this year, is in favour, and triggers an immediate invocation of the relevant treaty clauses.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    No - its money wasted.
    Granted he is Scottish and went to St Andrews but for a start he will be 68 at next election.
    And ''...he resigned from the front-bench owing to ill-health in October 1998..."
    Long may he live and he is doing a good job at defence... but...

    The statistic to look at are economic ones.
    From David Smith of The Sunday Times
    "... two things. The first is the argument that this recovery is so long in the tooth that we should be ready for the next downturn. We are now into the seventh year of a recovery that began in the middle of 2009. It sounds like a long time but the recovery that preceded it, from the early 1990s to 2000, ran for more than 16 years. The one before that, in the 1980s, lasted for over nine years. Given how far the economy fell in 2008-9, it is far too early to be calling time on the recovery.

    The second thing is to deal with the end of year flurry of nonsense about Britain being in the middle of some kind of debt-fuelled consumer boom. In the national accounts released just before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics reported that aggregate wages and salaries in the third quarter were 4.6% up on a year earlier, pushed higher by both pay rises and employment growth, at a time of zero inflation. Real household disposable incomes were up by 4%. Consumer spending growth of 3% over the same period looks modest by comparison.

    And, while household borrowing has picked up a little, it remains remarkably restrained. Overall borrowing has risen by less than 5% over the past seven years, and is significantly lower in real terms and relative to income than it was before the crisis. Unsecured borrowing is 15% lower in cash terms than before the crisis."

    A positive economic future outlook (Smith points to fairly solid world growth) - who does that suggest you should put your money on...?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    kle4 said:

    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?

    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
    Wasn't Corbyn a rank outsider? Not sure what the odds were but he would have stood a better chance of winning the Grand National than the Labour leadership.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    No - its money wasted.
    Granted he is Scottish and went to St Andrews but for a start he will be 68 at next election.
    And ''...he resigned from the front-bench owing to ill-health in October 1998..."
    Long may he live and he is doing a good job at defence... but...

    The statistic to look at are economic ones.
    From David Smith of The Sunday Times
    "... two things. The first is the argument that this recovery is so long in the tooth that we should be ready for the next downturn. We are now into the seventh year of a recovery that began in the middle of 2009. It sounds like a long time but the recovery that preceded it, from the early 1990s to 2000, ran for more than 16 years. The one before that, in the 1980s, lasted for over nine years. Given how far the economy fell in 2008-9, it is far too early to be calling time on the recovery.

    The second thing is to deal with the end of year flurry of nonsense about Britain being in the middle of some kind of debt-fuelled consumer boom. In the national accounts released just before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics reported that aggregate wages and salaries in the third quarter were 4.6% up on a year earlier, pushed higher by both pay rises and employment growth, at a time of zero inflation. Real household disposable incomes were up by 4%. Consumer spending growth of 3% over the same period looks modest by comparison.

    And, while household borrowing has picked up a little, it remains remarkably restrained. Overall borrowing has risen by less than 5% over the past seven years, and is significantly lower in real terms and relative to income than it was before the crisis. Unsecured borrowing is 15% lower in cash terms than before the crisis."

    A positive economic future outlook (Smith points to fairly solid world growth) - who does that suggest you should put your money on...?

    I'm always sceptical of "time for a recession" stories - recessions are typically the result of economies running above capacity, leading to consumers and businesses to pile on debt, and ending when the central bank raises interest rates to prevent inflation getting out of hand.

    We are clearly not running above capacity.
    Debt levels are considerably lower in the private sector than they were before the last financial crisis.
    And inflation is extremely limited.

    So: I'd say the odds on a recession in 2016 are relatively modest.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Moses_ said:

    kle4 said:

    Not my favourite minister, but on the basis of vaguely plausible outsider candidates, I suppose he's a candidate - senior but, despite his position, not very visible, and with decades of experience for those wary of an untested Cameron Mark2 to go up against the old Guard of Osborne(although he's still pretty young it has to be said), May and Boris. Seems a bit of a bumbler with little charisma to me, but a Jim Hacker 'stop the others on both sides' candidate?

    Speedy said:

    Is this a joke?

    Anyone at 66-1 is surely considered a joke (or at least their chances of winning to be a joke), but in this crazy new world of ours and a potentially rattled Tory party?
    Wasn't Corbyn a rank outsider? Not sure what the odds were but he would have stood a better chance of winning the Grand National than the Labour leadership.
    Somebody on betfair flagged him up at 100/1+

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I think that's a value tip from Mr. Eagles. There's no stand-out candidate amongst the potential successors to Cameron. Off the top of my head, Fallon doesn't have the drawbacks of Osborne (unlikeable), May (nasty, too far right), Hammond (boring, ok, Fallon's not exciting but he's more interesting than Hammond), Boris (laissez-faire).

    Incidentally, just seen Star Wars VII. Rather liked it. A few lines could've been cut to avoid labouring points, but mostly it was good.

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    bb63..You may care to read the breakdown of where the money for flood defences has been and will be spent... there were a number of posters here giving details..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    rcs1000 said:

    No - its money wasted.
    Granted he is Scottish and went to St Andrews but for a start he will be 68 at next election.
    And ''...he resigned from the front-bench owing to ill-health in October 1998..."
    Long may he live and he is doing a good job at defence... but...

    The statistic to look at are economic ones.
    From David Smith of The Sunday Times
    "... two things. The first is the argument that this recovery is so long in the tooth that we should be ready for the next downturn. We are now into the seventh year of a recovery that began in the middle of 2009. It sounds like a long time but the recovery that preceded it, from the early 1990s to 2000, ran for more than 16 years. The one before that, in the 1980s, lasted for over nine years. Given how far the economy fell in 2008-9, it is far too early to be calling time on the recovery.

    The second thing is to deal with the end of year flurry of nonsense about Britain being in the middle of some kind of debt-fuelled consumer boom. In the national accounts released just before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics reported that aggregate wages and salaries in the third quarter were 4.6% up on a year earlier, pushed higher by both pay rises and employment growth, at a time of zero inflation. Real household disposable incomes were up by 4%. Consumer spending growth of 3% over the same period looks modest by comparison.

    And, while household borrowing has picked up a little, it remains remarkably restrained. Overall borrowing has risen by less than 5% over the past seven years, and is significantly lower in real terms and relative to income than it was before the crisis. Unsecured borrowing is 15% lower in cash terms than before the crisis."

    A positive economic future outlook (Smith points to fairly solid world growth) - who does that suggest you should put your money on...?

    I'm always sceptical of "time for a recession" stories - recessions are typically the result of economies running above capacity, leading to consumers and businesses to pile on debt, and ending when the central bank raises interest rates to prevent inflation getting out of hand.

    We are clearly not running above capacity.
    Debt levels are considerably lower in the private sector than they were before the last financial crisis.
    And inflation is extremely limited.

    So: I'd say the odds on a recession in 2016 are relatively modest.
    I'd say fairly high against. And I agree that that favours Osborne. If the vote is Remain I think he is nailed on. If it doesn't all bets are off but I still can't see Fallon even being a contender.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    I agree that the circumstances of the contest will most likely conspire against the two favourites in this market, so it's not impossible that a relative outsider might come through - the question of course being which one! That PP 66-1 is probably value, but will be most likely 33 or 25 by tomorrow now it's been tipped here, and there's potentially four years (or more!) to wait until the market's settled.

    In the meantime SA are 100/2 chasing 629, yet England are still (just!) odds-against on Betfair to win the match.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    It's flood news day:
    Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
    https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map

    BBC Business ‏@BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
    PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf

    Pure coincidence.
    Yes correct for once. The govt are spending 3 billion on flood defences. Its probably all wasted as the water will just go elsewhere. Or it will stop raining.
    £3bn on flood defences, that seems an awful lot of money

    Bit like the badgers changing their tactics.
    Eh?

    See previous quotes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    Also, a Eurosceptic - but one a moderate one. He's a healer and a uniter.

    What a shame he (genuinely) doesn't want the job.
  • Sandpit said:

    I agree that the circumstances of the contest will most likely conspire against the two favourites in this market, so it's not impossible that a relative outsider might come through - the question of course being which one! That PP 66-1 is probably value, but will be most likely 33 or 25 by tomorrow now it's been tipped here, and there's potentially four years (or more!) to wait until the market's settled.

    In the meantime SA are 100/2 chasing 629, yet England are still (just!) odds-against on Betfair to win the match.

    On day two.

    Rain expected?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    The caveat with Hammond is he's Eurosceptic, its impossible to predict how the Conservative party will look post referendum.

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    BB63 ..An awful lot of water.....

    Yes but I'm interested to know over what period of time, how and where the money is spent. Sounds to me like plucking a figure out of the air.

    Why not go and find out for yourself - the figures are all published. Something like 1400 projects. I must apologise for my love of round figures - the sum is £2.3bn by 2020 not £3bn. I do wonder just how much has been spent since say 2000, it must be an eye watering sum. The accumulation of all this spending seems to be having little effect. Perhaps we can persuade a modern day King John to turn back El Ninio.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Speedy said:
    After reading that I can only surmise Rubio is an utter total disgrace, devoid of any respect for himself , his party and his beliefs. He alone gives a bad name to politics.....



    I mean who helps estate agents FFS?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    The caveat with Hammond is he's Eurosceptic, its impossible to predict how the Conservative party will look post referendum.

    He is at the sane end of euroscepticism, not least in that it does not dominate his worldview. He is quite well rounded. An excellent unity candidate.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    BB63 ..An awful lot of water.....

    Yes but I'm interested to know over what period of time, how and where the money is spent. Sounds to me like plucking a figure out of the air.

    Why not go and find out for yourself - the figures are all published. Something like 1400 projects. I must apologise for my love of round figures - the sum is £2.3bn by 2020 not £3bn. I do wonder just how much has been spent since say 2000, it must be an eye watering sum. The accumulation of all this spending seems to be having little effect. Perhaps we can persuade a modern day King John to turn back El Ninio.
    My word Mr flightpath you are a very angry man, your default setting appears to be confrontation and abuse, I can't imagine what you're going through but you have my sympathy.

  • HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    I agree that the circumstances of the contest will most likely conspire against the two favourites in this market, so it's not impossible that a relative outsider might come through - the question of course being which one! That PP 66-1 is probably value, but will be most likely 33 or 25 by tomorrow now it's been tipped here, and there's potentially four years (or more!) to wait until the market's settled.

    In the meantime SA are 100/2 chasing 629, yet England are still (just!) odds-against on Betfair to win the match.

    On day two.

    Rain expected?
    20% chance of a shower on the last day, but otherwise no.
    http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/SFXX0010:1:SF
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited January 2016

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    If the UK votes Remain then clearly the Tories are unlikely to pick a BOO backer however tight the margin, that would only be the case if Leave won, however nor will they pick a Europhile given the likely closeness of the result so Hammond's moderate Euroscepticism would be a good bet. Personality wise he is like a Tory Mitt Romney and he also had a successful business career before politics, against a charismatic, moderate Labour leader that may not be enough, against Corbyn it probably would be
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    He would be if he was on the winning side, not if he is on the losing side, but that goes for all possible candidates. It is also why the whole referendum is going to be so toxic for the Tories. Labour by contrast will be demonstrating a rare unity.

    Its going to be a funny old year politically.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    He would be if he was on the winning side, not if he is on the losing side, but that goes for all possible candidates. It is also why the whole referendum is going to be so toxic for the Tories. Labour by contrast will be demonstrating a rare unity.

    Its going to be a funny old year politically.
    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,546
    No reshuffle then, or is Dugher fighting back in advance?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35217049
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    Huh?
    So the tories are staring down the barrel of a 3rd consecutive election victory following a fairly solid vote to remain in the EU (after securing a spread of reforms) and they are going to start fighting each other?
    Really?
    Hammond will be Osborne's campaign manager and next First Secretary of State.
    If Javid comes across as a competent minister he stands a chance of ultimately replacing Hammond I think. But otherwise someone else needs to step forward and demonstrate the broad shoulders and thick skin necessary for leader and PM.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2016

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    I think much depends upon whether tempers flare during the referendum (everyone assumes they will but so far they haven't) as well as whether it is close or not.

    If it is Remain but judged to be close and that "one more push" will get the 'right' result for Leave (SNP style) then it will be very divisive.
    If it is Remain and not even close (AV Referendum style) then I suspect everyone will want to move on.
    If it is Leave then the margin is irrelevant, all bets are off.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Fallon would need questions answered about his relationship with alcohol and how it might have effected his judgement before consideration of any leadership role.Also,in deference to Churchill,who should be the comparator in this election for all candidates,how might he perform without it?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Fallon would need questions answered about his relationship with alcohol and how it might have effected his judgement before consideration of any leadership role.Also,in deference to Churchill,who should be the comparator in this election for all candidates,how might he perform without it?

    Relationship with alcohol?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2016

    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) ...

    Which with all respect that is part and parcel of the weakness of Leave and quite common with UKIP's MO and lately that of the Lib Dems (eg the ludicrous defection talk during Conference Season).

    Typical expectations management is to talk low and then beat expectations. So if you expect 6 to back Leave then say 3 and when it is six you can boast how everyone is now coming around to Leave.

    Instead there's a real possibility none will (for a variety of reasons that don't include principles) so instead talk about six. The same as the Lib Dems at Conference. Its weakness not strength.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    If the UK votes Remain then clearly the Tories are unlikely to pick a BOO backer however tight the margin, that would only be the case if Leave won, however nor will they pick a Europhile given the likely closeness of the result so Hammond's moderate Euroscepticism would be a good bet. Personality wise he is like a Tory Mitt Romney and he also had a successful business career before politics, against a charismatic, moderate Labour leader that may not be enough, against Corbyn it probably would be
    What Europhiles are there left in the Conservative Party?

    You don't have to be either a Ken Clarke style Europhile or a Redwood style Eurosceptic, most now seem to be rather boring Eurorealists - the EU has flaws, the Euro is a bad idea, but we're on balance better in the EU for the Single Market than out. Rather perfect if the vote is Remain.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Journo Stephen
    Scottish nationalists are taking the Tunnock's news well, I see. https://t.co/kmr4OJXzM6
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) ...

    Which with all respect that is part and parcel of the weakness of Leave and quite common with UKIP's MO and lately that of the Lib Dems (eg the ludicrous defection talk during Conference Season).

    Typical expectations management is to talk low and then beat expectations. So if you expect 6 to back Leave then say 3 and when it is six you can boast how everyone is now coming around to Leave.

    Instead there's a real possibility none will (for a variety of reasons that don't include principles) so instead talk about six. The same as the Lib Dems at Conference. Its weakness not strength.
    I don't expect anything, I'm repeating what a Director of Labour Leave said at a public meeting.

    Anyway, congratulations on managing to crowbar Ukip into a discussion about Labour Eurosceptics.

    If you were to spend more time playing the ball and not the man you'd appear far more rational.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Moses_ said:

    Speedy said:
    After reading that I can only surmise Rubio is an utter total disgrace, devoid of any respect for himself , his party and his beliefs. He alone gives a bad name to politics.....



    I mean who helps estate agents FFS?
    Why is it disreputable to help estate agents but OK to help bankers? Just at the moment I THINK the fomer stand higher in public esteem.
  • I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) ...

    Which with all respect that is part and parcel of the weakness of Leave and quite common with UKIP's MO and lately that of the Lib Dems (eg the ludicrous defection talk during Conference Season).

    Typical expectations management is to talk low and then beat expectations. So if you expect 6 to back Leave then say 3 and when it is six you can boast how everyone is now coming around to Leave.

    Instead there's a real possibility none will (for a variety of reasons that don't include principles) so instead talk about six. The same as the Lib Dems at Conference. Its weakness not strength.
    I don't expect anything, I'm repeating what a Director of Labour Leave said at a public meeting.

    Anyway, congratulations on managing to crowbar Ukip into a discussion about Labour Eurosceptics.

    If you were to spend more time playing the ball and not the man you'd appear far more rational.

    Re-read my post, I spent more time talking about the Lib-Dems than I did UKIP so how precisely is that "playing the man"? Are the Lib Dems "the man" now?

    UKIP have for years failed with expectations management, eg on winning seats under First Past the Post. The Lib Dems lately have failed with expectations management. They were relevant to my point and not remotely on the same side of the issue so it was not "playing the man".

    My point is that the Director of Labour Leave is talking bovine manure and it is dreadful expectations management. I bet you £20 at evens that less than six members of the Shadow Cabinet (as made up today) come out in favour of Leave.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    No reshuffle then, or is Dugher fighting back in advance?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35217049

    I think he may be right. After all why should Corbyn give a free vote to preserve unity and then sack the dissenters to create a division?
    But the speculation is becoming so rife that he will hurt himself if he does nothing. However, quite how much he is in charge of himself must remain an open question.

    But if Corbyn does sack Benn and Eagle (I guess that the other Eagle will then follow) he may succeed in putting his fellow travellers in place but what was previously a schism between him and the PLP would surely turn into a chasm.
    Schism to chasm - a form of progress I suppose
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Flightpath, when the Churches went that way, the result was the Fourth Crusade.

    In that scenario, the Conservatives are the Ottoman Empire.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    He would be if he was on the winning side, not if he is on the losing side, but that goes for all possible candidates. It is also why the whole referendum is going to be so toxic for the Tories. Labour by contrast will be demonstrating a rare unity.

    Its going to be a funny old year politically.
    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    213 of 231 Labour MPs including all the Shadow Cabinet are backing Remain according to the Independent.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-agrees-to-join-labours-campaign-to-keep-britain-in-european-union-a6735011.html

    Field and Hoey will be for Leave, in glorious isolation. There is no great desire to Leave on the left, despite the fantasies of the eurosceptics.

    The left wing No2EU campaign group backed by the hard Left Leavers got the square root of bugger all in the 2014 Euro vote.
  • BREAKING NEWS: 'British boy' threatens UK with new terror attacks in sick new ISIS video showing the death of five 'British spies'
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) ...

    Which with all respect that is part and parcel of the weakness of Leave and quite common with UKIP's MO and lately that of the Lib Dems (eg the ludicrous defection talk during Conference Season).

    Typical expectations management is to talk low and then beat expectations. So if you expect 6 to back Leave then say 3 and when it is six you can boast how everyone is now coming around to Leave.

    Instead there's a real possibility none will (for a variety of reasons that don't include principles) so instead talk about six. The same as the Lib Dems at Conference. Its weakness not strength.
    I don't expect anything, I'm repeating what a Director of Labour Leave said at a public meeting.

    Anyway, congratulations on managing to crowbar Ukip into a discussion about Labour Eurosceptics.

    If you were to spend more time playing the ball and not the man you'd appear far more rational.

    Re-read my post, I spent more time talking about the Lib-Dems than I did UKIP so how precisely is that "playing the man"? Are the Lib Dems "the man" now?

    UKIP have for years failed with expectations management, eg on winning seats under First Past the Post. The Lib Dems lately have failed with expectations management. They were relevant to my point and not remotely on the same side of the issue so it was not "playing the man".

    My point is that the Director of Labour Leave is talking bovine manure and it is dreadful expectations management. I bet you £20 at evens that less than six members of the Shadow Cabinet (as made up today) come out in favour of Leave.
    You sir, are a fool.

    I have absolutely no idea how many of the Shadow Cabinet will campaign for Leave, I merely passed on that at a public meeting (the speakers were Brendan Chilton, Dan Hannan and Freddie Forsyth) Chilton, a director of Labour Leave, told the audience that 6 of the Shadow Cabinet were Outers.

    Now, you may claim he is lying, misinformed or talking "bovine manure", I'm simply the messenger.

    And somehow you link that to Ukip expectation management.

    What a peculiar young man you are.



  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Journo Stephen
    Scottish nationalists are taking the Tunnock's news well, I see. https://t.co/kmr4OJXzM6

    I think I missed something while at Church. Why have the CyberNats turned on confectionary makers?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    He would be if he was on the winning side, not if he is on the losing side, but that goes for all possible candidates. It is also why the whole referendum is going to be so toxic for the Tories. Labour by contrast will be demonstrating a rare unity.

    Its going to be a funny old year politically.
    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    213 of 231 Labour MPs including all the Shadow Cabinet are backing Remain according to the Independent.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-agrees-to-join-labours-campaign-to-keep-britain-in-european-union-a6735011.html

    Field and Hoey will be for Leave, in glorious isolation. There is no great desire to Leave on the left, despite the fantasies of the eurosceptics.

    The left wing No2EU campaign group backed by the hard Left Leavers got the square root of bugger all in the 2014 Euro vote.
    Sure - Kate Hoey is hardly the 'hard left' though !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited January 2016
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    If the UK votes Remain then clearly the Tories are unlikely to pick a BOO backer however tight the margin, that would only be the case if Leave won, however nor will they pick a Europhile given the likely closeness of the result so Hammond's moderate Euroscepticism would be a good bet. Personality wise he is like a Tory Mitt Romney and he also had a successful business career before politics, against a charismatic, moderate Labour leader that may not be enough, against Corbyn it probably would be
    They are absolutely going to have to pick a BOOer otherwise the fate of SLAB awaits them since the majority of people in the Tory party back out and putting a Europhile in will lead to a stampede to the only party willing to back Leave.

    SLAB went on exactly the path you are suggesting after the No vote with Jim Murphy trying to appeal to the 55% and they got smashed by FPTP with the 45% uniting behind a single party. The Tories need to make sure that the 45% who vote to leave in the event of a remain don't even contemplate uniting behind UKIP. One thing we learned from the independence vote is that the 45% don't magically disappear overnight, SLAB thought they would and now they are fighting bloody Tories (of all people) for second place in Scotland this year.

    No way, if the Tories revel in the victory of Remain and push a europhile in they will be asking for trouble. In the same way that independence was a niche argument for so many years before the vote, the EU argument has been as well. After the vote it won't be until it is settled one way or the other. A narrow Remain victory is not going to settle it and pushing a europhile agenda would destroy the Tory party after one.

    Hammond is a very unlikely bet, he is also a BOOer and has said many times he would vote to Leave if given the chance.
  • Hating the BBC footie thread - all this talk of spurs being in with a chance for the title is evidently going to lead to a right old stuffing in a minute...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265



    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    I share the scepticism of others about those 6 (or any) Shadows. But you're on to something about the "meh" Labour voters. There are lots of Labour voters who don't care much about the EU and dislike Cameron and/or the Government. There is a real danger for Remain that Cameron (a) dominates the Remain campaign and (b) bashes Corbyn to the extent that people who like Lour or Corbyn more than the EU don't bother to vote, because they can't bring themselves to reward Cameron.

    That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JournoStephen: Scottish nationalists are taking the Tunnock's news well, I see. https://t.co/kmr4OJXzM6
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921



    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    I share the scepticism of others about those 6 (or any) Shadows. But you're on to something about the "meh" Labour voters. There are lots of Labour voters who don't care much about the EU and dislike Cameron and/or the Government. There is a real danger for Remain that Cameron (a) dominates the Remain campaign and (b) bashes Corbyn to the extent that people who like Lour or Corbyn more than the EU don't bother to vote, because they can't bring themselves to reward Cameron.

    That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
    I have never met a single person (outside of Islington) who loves the EU because of workers rights. Does such a person exist?

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    Everybody[1] in the Conservative party and in the Government is going to be forced to choose either Remain or Leave. There will be no innocents...

    [1] Boris will conspire to face both ways at once and hopefully will attract the contempt such a stance deserves, but let's be honest: shit just slides off him...:-(
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Oh, and mr TSE - not a bad shout. I think it is more likely to be a newbie like Truss if not Osborne or Hammond, but the experience of Fallon vs ineptitude of Corbyn would play very well in Tory heartlands and marginals.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,776
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    If the UK votes Remain then clearly the Tories are unlikely to pick a BOO backer however tight the margin, that would only be the case if Leave won, however nor will they pick a Europhile given the likely closeness of the result so Hammond's moderate Euroscepticism would be a good bet. Personality wise he is like a Tory Mitt Romney and he also had a successful business career before politics, against a charismatic, moderate Labour leader that may not be enough, against Corbyn it probably would be
    They are absolutely going to have to pick a BOOer otherwise the fate of SLAB awaits them since the majority of people in the Tory party back out and putting a Europhile in will lead to a stampede to the only party willing to back Leave.

    SLAB went on exactly the path you are suggesting after the No vote with Jim Murphy trying to appeal to the 55% and they got smashed by FPTP with the 45% uniting behind a single party. The Tories need to make sure that the 45% who vote to leave in the event of a remain don't even contemplate uniting behind UKIP. One thing we learned from the independence vote is that the 45% don't magically disappear overnight, SLAB thought they would and now they are fighting bloody Tories (of all people) for second place in Scotland this year.

    No way, if the Tories revel in the victory of Remain and push a europhile in they will be asking for trouble. In the same way that independence was a niche argument for so many years before the vote, the EU argument has been as well. After the vote it won't be until it is settled one way or the other. A narrow Remain victory is not going to settle it and pushing a europhile agenda would destroy the Tory party after one.

    Hammond is a very unlikely bet, he is also a BOOer and has said many times he would vote to Leave if given the chance.
    If UKIP had not taken a solid chunk of Conservative BOOers, I think this analysis would be right. But I simply cannot believe, should the vote be for In, that the conservatives will suddenly become the party of Out.

    A moderate eurosceptic, like Hammond, would seem the most likely outcome of an 55:45 in vote.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548



    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    I share the scepticism of others about those 6 (or any) Shadows. But you're on to something about the "meh" Labour voters. There are lots of Labour voters who don't care much about the EU and dislike Cameron and/or the Government. There is a real danger for Remain that Cameron (a) dominates the Remain campaign and (b) bashes Corbyn to the extent that people who like Lour or Corbyn more than the EU don't bother to vote, because they can't bring themselves to reward Cameron.

    That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
    On the other hand the demographics of the Leave voters (white working class men) is a notorious demographic for non-voting.

    The "Guardianista" Labour vote will tunout for Remain, the "Meh" voters will be more split, so turnout of these matters less as having a tendency to cancel each other out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2016



    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    I share the scepticism of others about those 6 (or any) Shadows. But you're on to something about the "meh" Labour voters. There are lots of Labour voters who don't care much about the EU and dislike Cameron and/or the Government. There is a real danger for Remain that Cameron (a) dominates the Remain campaign and (b) bashes Corbyn to the extent that people who like Lour or Corbyn more than the EU don't bother to vote, because they can't bring themselves to reward Cameron.

    That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
    That's a really good point Nick, for a huge number of people it will come as a surprise when they find out there will be a referendum on EU membership. You're right that there will need to be a distinctive campaign from the left on the Remain side, if traditional Labour supporters are not to either take the opportunity to give the PM a kicking or abstain completely.

    The lower the turnout the more likely Leave is to win, like in Scotland their supporters are up for it and will certainly vote, the Remain supporters are on the whole less so and will need persuading to turn out. Labour's GOTV machine could be very useful on the day to get that high turnout.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I ... on that.
    ...
    They are absolutely going to have to pick a BOOer otherwise the fate of SLAB awaits them since the majority of people in the Tory party back out and putting a Europhile in will lead to a stampede to the only party willing to back Leave.

    SLAB went on exactly the path you are suggesting after the No vote with Jim Murphy trying to appeal to the 55% and they got smashed by FPTP with the 45% uniting behind a single party. The Tories need to make sure that the 45% who vote to leave in the event of a remain don't even contemplate uniting behind UKIP. One thing we learned from the independence vote is that the 45% don't magically disappear overnight, SLAB thought they would and now they are fighting bloody Tories (of all people) for second place in Scotland this year.

    No way, if the Tories revel in the victory of Remain and push a europhile in they will be asking for trouble. In the same way that independence was a niche argument for so many years before the vote, the EU argument has been as well. After the vote it won't be until it is settled one way or the other. A narrow Remain victory is not going to settle it and pushing a europhile agenda would destroy the Tory party after one.

    Hammond is a very unlikely bet, he is also a BOOer and has said many times he would vote to Leave if given the chance.
    If UKIP had not taken a solid chunk of Conservative BOOers, I think this analysis would be right. But I simply cannot believe, should the vote be for In, that the conservatives will suddenly become the party of Out.

    A moderate eurosceptic, like Hammond, would seem the most likely outcome of an 55:45 in vote.
    I agree entirely Robert - Tories have already lost their extreme social conservative and euro-obsessed group. Happily, it has had the result of the making the party MORE electable!

    I will be voting leave; I'm not sure who will win, but I sure as damnit wouldn't be voting UKIP despite the result.

    The staging of this referendum is a very nuanced political positioning by Cameron. It shows he cares about the concerns of his party, is wiling to trust the public, but also suggests that he isn't rabidly one way or the other. This prevents scaring the horses inside his party, and the newly loved Liberal-leaning but emphatic Tory voters (in seats like Mid Dorset/North Poole)

    In short, there is nowhere else for anyone on the sensible side of economic discourse and competent governance to go.
  • Re-read my post, I spent more time talking about the Lib-Dems than I did UKIP so how precisely is that "playing the man"? Are the Lib Dems "the man" now?

    UKIP have for years failed with expectations management, eg on winning seats under First Past the Post. The Lib Dems lately have failed with expectations management. They were relevant to my point and not remotely on the same side of the issue so it was not "playing the man".

    My point is that the Director of Labour Leave is talking bovine manure and it is dreadful expectations management. I bet you £20 at evens that less than six members of the Shadow Cabinet (as made up today) come out in favour of Leave.

    You sir, are a fool.

    I have absolutely no idea how many of the Shadow Cabinet will campaign for Leave, I merely passed on that at a public meeting (the speakers were Brendan Chilton, Dan Hannan and Freddie Forsyth) Chilton, a director of Labour Leave, told the audience that 6 of the Shadow Cabinet were Outers.

    Now, you may claim he is lying, misinformed or talking "bovine manure", I'm simply the messenger.

    And somehow you link that to Ukip expectation management.

    What a peculiar young man you are.
    No you are the fool. You decided to repeat a clearly nonsensical and false claim. I linked that to "weakness" on behalf of the person saying it and linked it to other similar examples of poor expectations management for example by UKIP and the Lib Dems.

    You decided to repeatedly point blank ignore the Liberal Democrats examples and falsely pretend that I am "playing the man" and "linking that to UKIP". That is patently not true, anymore than I am linking it to the Lib Dems. I am linking it to bad expectations management regardless of party.

    Now if you don't think it is clearly nonsense and dreadful expectations management then I stand with my offer of a bet. Or you can keep ignoring half of what I write and obsessing with one of multiple parties mentioned if you wish. If you do the latter it is delusional though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    eek said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    What do you expect on the first sunday after the two week Christmas & New Year Break. The most, most people are doing is trying to forget that tomorrow is an early start and back to the daily grind
    Not if you live in God's country , another holiday for us.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited January 2016
    OK, I am going to put my reputation (as this site's longest serving local Tory activist with over 40 years in the poor bloody infantry) on the line and politely but firmly inform you all that the party will NOT suffer any serious internal divisions following the refendum, assuming:

    1. Collective ministerial responsibility is suspended during the campaign (Dave will have taken leave of his senses were he to insist otherwise) and

    2. The margin of victory for remain is comfortable, say a minimum of 10% or so.

    There simply is no appetite among us rank and file for self-immolation and I am confident that applies to the vast majority of MPs as well.

    This will mean that the EU will not be a defining issue for the leadership election in 2019/20.
  • MaxPB said:

    They are absolutely going to have to pick a BOOer otherwise the fate of SLAB awaits them since the majority of people in the Tory party back out and putting a Europhile in will lead to a stampede to the only party willing to back Leave.

    SLAB went on exactly the path you are suggesting after the No vote with Jim Murphy trying to appeal to the 55% and they got smashed by FPTP with the 45% uniting behind a single party. The Tories need to make sure that the 45% who vote to leave in the event of a remain don't even contemplate uniting behind UKIP. One thing we learned from the independence vote is that the 45% don't magically disappear overnight, SLAB thought they would and now they are fighting bloody Tories (of all people) for second place in Scotland this year.

    No way, if the Tories revel in the victory of Remain and push a europhile in they will be asking for trouble. In the same way that independence was a niche argument for so many years before the vote, the EU argument has been as well. After the vote it won't be until it is settled one way or the other. A narrow Remain victory is not going to settle it and pushing a europhile agenda would destroy the Tory party after one.

    Hammond is a very unlikely bet, he is also a BOOer and has said many times he would vote to Leave if given the chance.

    No way is the SNP/SLAB position remotely comparable to the UKIP/Tory one.

    Before the referendum the SNP called based on winning an election, the SNP were running an SNP majority Scottish government, SLAB were in opposition in both Holyrood and Westminster.
    Before the referendum the Tories called based on winning an election, the Tories are running a Tory majority British government, UKIP have just a single solitary seat and even that is only tenuously more than an independent.

    To contrast the two situations is frankly absurd. The SNP are more comparable to the Tories than UKIP. The party of office that called this vote. If we were having a vote called by UKIP due to a UKIP mandate following a UKIP election triumph the two may be comparable as you suggest.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    JohnO said:

    OK, I am going to put my reputation (as this site's longest serving local Tory activist with over 40 years in the poor bloody infantry) on the line and politely but firmly inform you all that the party will NOT suffer any serious internal divisions following the refendum, assuming:

    1. Collective ministerial responsibility is suspended during the campaign (Dave will have taken leave of his senses were he to insist otherwise) and

    2. The margin of victory for remain is comfortable, say a minimum of 10% or so.

    There simply is no appetite among us rank and file for self-immolation and I am confident that applies to the vast majority of MPs as well.

    This will mean that the EU will not be a defining issue for the leadership election in 2019/20.

    I agree. The Labour party was riven in the 70's on membership of the Common Market, yet within six months after the referendum it was a non-issue.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. G, there's no holiday in Yorkshire.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2016
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    SeanT said:

    Slow news day.

    What do you expect on the first sunday after the two week Christmas & New Year Break. The most, most people are doing is trying to forget that tomorrow is an early start and back to the daily grind
    Not if you live in God's country , another holiday for us.
    My computer rather throw me when it announced this morning that tomorrow was January 2nd - Bank Holiday (Scotland).

    Fortunately I do live in God's country - its called Yorkshire.....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    He would be if he was on the winning side, not if he is on the losing side, but that goes for all possible candidates. It is also why the whole referendum is going to be so toxic for the Tories. Labour by contrast will be demonstrating a rare unity.

    Its going to be a funny old year politically.
    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    213 of 231 Labour MPs including all the Shadow Cabinet are backing Remain according to the Independent.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-agrees-to-join-labours-campaign-to-keep-britain-in-european-union-a6735011.html

    Field and Hoey will be for Leave, in glorious isolation. There is no great desire to Leave on the left, despite the fantasies of the eurosceptics.

    The left wing No2EU campaign group backed by the hard Left Leavers got the square root of bugger all in the 2014 Euro vote.
    Sure - Kate Hoey is hardly the 'hard left' though !
    Sure - she is a Tory !

  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Mortimer said:



    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    I share the scepticism of others about those 6 (or any) Shadows. But you're on to something about the "meh" Labour voters. There are lots of Labour voters who don't care much about the EU and dislike Cameron and/or the Government. There is a real danger for Remain that Cameron (a) dominates the Remain campaign and (b) bashes Corbyn to the extent that people who like Lour or Corbyn more than the EU don't bother to vote, because they can't bring themselves to reward Cameron.

    That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
    I have never met a single person (outside of Islington) who loves the EU because of workers rights. Does such a person exist?

    You can remind them that four weeks paid holidays is due to EU law...

    We've all gotten used to it, but have a guess how many you get in America.... According to Wiki there's no statutory minimum, and the average is ten days in the first year, fourteen days after five years, and nineteen days after ten years!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    4 weeks holiday a year was in place in the 1970s..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:



    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    I share the scepticism of others about those 6 (or any) Shadows. But you're on to something about the "meh" Labour voters. There are lots of Labour voters who don't care much about the EU and dislike Cameron and/or the Government. There is a real danger for Remain that Cameron (a) dominates the Remain campaign and (b) bashes Corbyn to the extent that people who like Lour or Corbyn more than the EU don't bother to vote, because they can't bring themselves to reward Cameron.

    That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
    That's a really good point Nick, for a huge number of people it will come as a surprise when they find out there will be a referendum on EU membership. You're right that there will need to be a distinctive campaign from the left on the Remain side, if traditional Labour supporters are not to either take the opportunity to give the PM a kicking or abstain completely.

    The lower the turnout the more likely Leave is to win, like in Scotland their supporters are up for it and will certainly vote, the Remain supporters are on the whole less so and will need persuading to turn out. Labour's GOTV machine could be very useful on the day to get that high turnout.
    I am not sure that a low turnout will favour leave by much at all. We know turnout is both age and social class dependent. Age will bias turnout to Leave, but social class to Remain. It may well cancel out the age effect.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    If Hammond as FS is seen as having played a part in securing a Remain vote then he won't be seen as a uniting or healing candidate.
    He would be if he was on the winning side, not if he is on the losing side, but that goes for all possible candidates. It is also why the whole referendum is going to be so toxic for the Tories. Labour by contrast will be demonstrating a rare unity.

    Its going to be a funny old year politically.
    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    213 of 231 Labour MPs including all the Shadow Cabinet are backing Remain according to the Independent.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-agrees-to-join-labours-campaign-to-keep-britain-in-european-union-a6735011.html

    Field and Hoey will be for Leave, in glorious isolation. There is no great desire to Leave on the left, despite the fantasies of the eurosceptics.

    The left wing No2EU campaign group backed by the hard Left Leavers got the square root of bugger all in the 2014 Euro vote.
    Isn't this report about 2 months old.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    No reshuffle then, or is Dugher fighting back in advance?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35217049

    I think he may be right. After all why should Corbyn give a free vote to preserve unity and then sack the dissenters to create a division?
    But the speculation is becoming so rife that he will hurt himself if he does nothing. However, quite how much he is in charge of himself must remain an open question.

    But if Corbyn does sack Benn and Eagle (I guess that the other Eagle will then follow) he may succeed in putting his fellow travellers in place but what was previously a schism between him and the PLP would surely turn into a chasm.
    Schism to chasm - a form of progress I suppose
    He has to sack Shadow Cabinet dissenters. They can go on talking "crap conscience" from the back benches.
  • Fallon = continuity IDS :lol:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    notme said:

    Mortimer said:



    I'm not sure Labour are as united as you say. A director of Labour Leave claims 6 of the Shadow Cabinet plan to back Leave (yes he would say that) and Corbyn is very sceptical for very different reasons than people like Hannan. I'm also curious how many "meh" Labour voters will take the opportunity to give Cameron a kicking, a win for Leave and Cameron stands down with his tail between his legs, plenty of Labour people would enjoy that.

    But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.

    I share the scepticism of others about those 6 (or any) Shadows. But you're on to something about the "meh" Labour voters. There are lots of Labour voters who don't care much about the EU and dislike Cameron and/or the Government. There is a real danger for Remain that Cameron (a) dominates the Remain campaign and (b) bashes Corbyn to the extent that people who like Lour or Corbyn more than the EU don't bother to vote, because they can't bring themselves to reward Cameron.

    That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
    I have never met a single person (outside of Islington) who loves the EU because of workers rights. Does such a person exist?

    You can remind them that four weeks paid holidays is due to EU law...

    We've all gotten used to it, but have a guess how many you get in America.... According to Wiki there's no statutory minimum, and the average is ten days in the first year, fourteen days after five years, and nineteen days after ten years!
    Indeed. I doubt many would attribute it to EU anymore.

    As an aside, I'm more a fan of the American model. I work for myself. Holidays cost me money in lost sales/opportunities- I prefer taking half-days to extend a weekend, have the odd lie-in when I don't have a meeting/catalogue to write.

    During the two years that I didn't run my own company, it was really, really hard to take the 30 DAYS annual leave we were given......
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    HYUFD said:

    His chances would be better if he replaced Hammond as Foreign Secretary, in power the Tories either pick the Foreign Secretary or Chancellor as their leader

    I like Hammond, he has a quiet dignity about him.

    I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
    I like Hammond too. He is the slightly dull but very competent leader that the Tories will crave after a divisive Euro-ref. He too would make minced falafel out of Corbyn.
    The caveat with Hammond is he's Eurosceptic, its impossible to predict how the Conservative party will look post referendum.

    How can he be a Euro-sceptic when as Foreign Secretary he is part of the negotiating team. He could, of course, resign before the vote saying that Britain did not get enough concessions from the EU.
This discussion has been closed.