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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just one local by-election tonight – a LAB defence

Botchery (Lab defence) on Carlisle
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 29, Labour 20, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 6)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 822 (33%), Independent 725 (29%), Conservative 516 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 345 (14%), Green Party 75 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated:

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PClipp

First?

Tissue_Price

Well it's the same Independent standing again, so if there's to be a gain I'd suggest he's the more likely.

chestnut

Labour loss

MarkSenior

Harry has missed several previous results in this ward

2008 Lab 509 Con 443 Ind 313 BNP 145
2010 Ind 1119 Lab 822 Con 443 BNP 134
2012 Lab 693 Ind 311 Con 141 UKIP 107 Green 24
2013 Ind 568 Lab 418 Con 284 UKIP 200

General consensus on vote2012 site is for an Ind gain

MarkSenior

MarkSenior said:

Harry has missed several previous results in this ward

2008 Lab 509 Con 443 Ind 313 BNP 145
2010 Ind 1119 Lab 822 Con 443 BNP 134
2012 Lab 693 Ind 311 Con 141 UKIP 107 Green 24
2013 Ind 568 Lab 418 Con 284 UKIP 200

General consensus on vote2012 site is for an Ind gain

and 2014 Ind 773 Lab 358 UKIP 217 Con 131

MarkSenior

Result was Independent gain

Ind 381 Lab 250 Con 115