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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Germany’s inherited war-shame is in danger of eating itself
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Germany’s inherited war-shame is in danger of eating itself
Germany paid a heavy price for the world wars. Only during Angela Merkel’s chancellorship were the loans for WWI reparations finally paid off. That cost, however, pales into insignificance compared with the legacy of the second War. The human and material losses were of course disastrous but perhaps the most lasting legacy was psychological:
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Nicolas Sarkozy .......... 3/1
Alain Juppe ................. 7/2
Francois Hollande ....... 9/2 (Yes really!)
Marine Le Pen ............. 5/1
Manuel Valls (Who?) .... 6/1
Really quite surprised that Hollande is shorter odds than le Pen....
Unless politicians all across Europe are willing to be honest with those who elect them, then this sort of problem is what results. The presidents of Slovakia and Hungary are realising this and calling for EU talks this morning, the rise of basically racist parties across the continent will continue for as long as the issue isn't addressed.
Nigel Farage says that Enoch Powell inadvertently ruined the immigration debate by allowing people to shout racist if concerns were raised. For a while now the same has happened with multiculturalism, a ridiculous concept forced upon us by politicians.
People get along fine, they gravitate towards where they're comfortable and the overwhelming majority live peacefully within the law. They become understandably concerned when their way of life is disturbed by social experiment on their behalf, that is what is happening in Cologne and elsewhere. That subject is shut down by accusations of xenophobia and racism. In the street where I'm based I counted 10 nationalities, we all rub along just fine, speaking in one language and doing business with each other on an equal footing. The non English are grateful for the opportunity and happy to assimilate. Immigration in the numbers witnessed in Germany is absolutely impossible to manage, I suspect the situation in Cologne is the start of something far more serious,
Some time ago, I commented here that Germans had been taught to hate themselves, and that's not good for any society. It means that you have political leaders who have no qualms about inflicting harm on their citizens, in the belief that they merit it.
Good piece, Mr. Herdson, and best of luck.
I don't think it's enough to attribute Merkel's madness entirely to WWII guilt. That's the root cause, but she's also been a knee-jerk idiot. Immediately, everybody here (and the rest of the country, I'd guess) called this right [that it would be a disaster].
As someone (I forget who, sorry) here said, she showed a similar response to axing all nuclear power following the the Japanese meltdown [disregarding the fact that Germany is not historically known for tsunamis and earthquakes].
Someone else wrote that German polls tend to be far more stable than those elsewhere, and I'd be interested in seeing what the Germans actually do so far as voting intention is concerned. They can't launch diatribes against Merkel's stupidity, then back her.
Then again, Blair won after Iraq...
But David is right, Germany is different. Every country is. A narrative of rich, liberal elites imposing their views on everyone else may be satisfying, but it does not come close to telling the full story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35271182
Mr. Observer, disagree with that point quite strongly. It's been made before, but increasing migration massively (over 1% of Germany's population arrived this year) creates massive tensions and decreases the prospect of integration.
If long-term demographic concerns were the driving force, it'd be a lot easier to simply increase migration through incentives to those from desirable countries, or to increase the numbers of migrants generally accepted over a long-term basis.
One of the biggest historical results of starving people being given food is their death, because they effectively overdose and their famished systems can't handle it. The Aetolian League invited the Romans to help them against the Achaean League, and within a short time all Greece was in Rome's hands.
It's a lot easier to invite people in than it is to throw them out.
I'm sure it's true that there was more to Merkel's decision than post-WWII shame. The question is why the whole political class acquiesced in it, from her own party to her coalition opponents to media and beyond. You can imagine what the reaction would have been had Cameron proposed an open door policy here.
Might it not be that Merkel simply had so much prestige/credit generally there was nobody who was able/willing to stand up and argue against it? I recall some who've visited Germany/know Germans here saying that Germans were worried about speaking against Merkel's decision as they didn't want to be seen to side with the far right, or suchlike.
The scale and widespread nature of the attacks has really caught the public mood. Sexually assaulting the daughters and wives of their hosts is grossly offensive. I see a few of those already arrested have been found with cribs saying 'big breasts, I want to f### you' amongst other handy local translations.
This is precisely the sort of revolting aggressive predator behaviour I've experienced when travelling in North Africa.
That it's arrived here, along with waltzing theft makes grim and predictable reading. No amount of handwaving from liberal apologists can cover this up. As David notes, the backlash to do just that has shaken trust in the police, media and politicos. I see the Cologne police chief has been forced to resign. Good.
If he had proposed Merkel's solution, he would have been lynched both by his own party and the press.
There is an economic and demographic backdrop to the differential policies towards asylum-seekers of Germany and the UK - to Germany's relatively open door, that compares with the UK's heavily fortified portal (which will be opened just a bit by David Cameron later today).
The two relevant points (leaving aside moral ones) are that:
- the UK's population is rising fast, whereas Germany's is falling fast;
- the dependency ratio (the proportion of expensive older people in the population relative to able-bodied, tax-generating workers) is rising much quicker in Germany than in the UK.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34172729
But overall a very interesting post which summarises well one of the factors behind Merkells (bonkers, to British eyes) policy
I don't think it's down to Merkel's standing, high though I'm sure it is. Thatcher took a pounding over the Poll Tax, Blair over Iraq. A good track record does buy you leeway but huge errors will still bring out opponents.
Can I chuck Greece into the mix? I think that Mrs Merkel felt quite bad after all of the brinkmanship of the Greece crisis (unlike Wolfgang Schäuble who appeared quite hawkish). While most of the criticism that came their way (from the UK at least) came from the Left, I don't think Merkel liked how it made Germany look, even if they had a right to stand their ground.
But I'm not sure that Greece would explain why the whole of Germany appears to be impotent when it comes to questioning a policy that would patently have serious consequences.
Get angry about THIS, Twitter - mass sexual assaults on German women and girls on New Year's Eve. #cologne #Germany https://t.co/SEkTmYNof9
Just as UKIP snaffled swathes of traditional Conservative and Labour votes over the last few years, there's the opportunity for Pegida or suchlike to try and win seats. I think Germany has a PR-type system, which would make a breakthrough easier for them than it is for UKIP [although UKIP also suffers from campaigns that have been conducted in accordance with stupidity for the last decade or so].
All Hollande has to do is scrape second in the first round against Le Pen and enough non-Hollande voters will 'pinch their nose' and elect him.
The former Labour frontbencher Dan Jarvis has indicated he may not stand for the party at the next general election if Jeremy Corbyn succeeds in changing policy to oppose the renewal of the Trident nuclear weapons programme.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/09/senior-labour-mp-wary-of-standing-for-election-under-anti-nuclear-policy
This is exactly what I have been talking about. There is a reason why Corbyn is going so hard on Trident and this is it. Jarvis will not be alone.
As I said yesterday, the removal of Eagle from the defence portfolio was the big story in the Labour reshuffle and the only one that mattered.
This time, Marine Le Pen is genuinely in with a shout of making the final two without the need for the Left vote to be split. The Left would almost certainly back Sarkozy or whoever against Le Pen, but would the right back Hollande against Le Pen? I wouldn't count on it.
Mr. Thompson, quite.
Not to mention the problems with their behaviour which have been seen recently. As I said yesterday, governments across Eurpoe need to round up troublemakers and put them on a plane to Damascus - it's the only way that the message will get through.
But in terms of dynamics, and the theme of the thread, 2016 looks likely to be more favourable to the populist right than the centre-left.
Good luck on the job front.
Pity it could not have been discussed in length a bit more.
However as ever SO hijacks it with the troubles of Labour.
Working out the odds what are the odds each step along the way that somehow Hollande wins his nomination, gets into the second round against Le Pen - and finally loses against Le Pen. I'd put the combined odds at less than 10/1.
I see Miss Moses may have started a rather heated debate last night on curfews.
Can I point out here that what she was referring to was rhetorical. She knows curfews can't happen and unworkable but she was making a point. No lady can move around entirely freely with out constant risk assessment of the situation for her personal safety. Perhaps us men do this in part as well but not to the extent women have to do this.
I notice the feminist card was thrown out there as well last night. This is not directly feminist in the way it's simply expectation that women are not there for sexual gratification under force by a minority of perpetrators the ethnic origins of whom are well known in this present situation. A woman should not and never feel threatened when going about her daily life yet... They are in a way that we will never really comprehend. That's the point Miss Moses was making she no more wants a curfew than anyone else she is sensible enough to know 99% are entirely innocent and anyway it's unenforceable but she does not see why she is restricted and has to always take care ( mayor and Cologne Police Chief) rather than the perpetrators removed from the streets and severely punished.
The solution is difficult as it was before these events. it is now exacerbated when we import people whose way of life is different from ours. I have worked extensively throughout the countries being referred to and have seen such activities previously but never Seen this or anywhere near this scale at one time. I still maintain the vast majority would never contemplate such an action and would spring to the defence of a woman under threat. Not all men are rapists so let's not say they are.
Deportation is difficult as the country they come from would have to agree to take them back. That's always been the challenge here. If they don't then you are lumbered with them. Uncontrolled entry as Merkel has advocated and enacted on the German people has directly resulted in these scenes. Failure of our western governments to attribute blame directly where it lies for fear of racism has again made the situation even worse and shamefully so.
Cycle free made the point very eloquently last night.
" So enough with male outrage at the very idea of having to have your freedoms restricted - welcome to our world - and let's hear your actual solutions to this problem now. And not "we shouldn't be in this position".
"Welcome to our world" is the point here. When both Miss Moses's go out in the evening and I no longer have to always say " be careful, be aware of where you are and watch your drink" then we may be getting a solution. Until such time as we stop blaming the victims and insisting they themselves take more care then the Miss Moses's (and Mrs Moses for that matter) will always to some extent have their daily lives and freedoms curtailed under a 'pseudo curfew ' whether they like it or not.
Looking back to last summer, the mass movement of migrants started long before Angela Merkel threw open Germany's borders. In the spring we had seen the boat journeys to Africa. We had seen chaos in Greece. We had seen the confrontations with the authorities in Hungary. When it came in late August, Angela Merkel's decision came as a shock in the midst of a crisis that had been long developing. It was not a sudden decision, nor was it early. Why did she do it?
First, and most importantly, the migrants were largely aiming to go to Germany. There are a few other countries that would have been acceptable to them but Germany was the top prize. So Germany had to decide whether to accept or disappoint them.
The British too often forget that we are almost unique in having borders that are relatively easily defensible (and the one that isn't is with a neighbour that is in exactly the same position). Germany is not in that position. It has long land borders which can be easily crossed by anyone with a will to do so. Moreover, across the continent the people have long become accustomed, demand even, the ability to travel between neighbouring countries easily. Stopping a movement of migrants would mean abandoning that, and spending vast amounts of money patrolling the borders. It still wouldn't be all that successful, given the lure of Germany.
Then there is the question where the migrants would go even if the attempt to repel them was partly successful. Were they to be consigned to wander around unfriendly eastern European countries through ever-worsening weather with the inevitability of large scale deaths on Germany's doorstep? They couldn't get home even if they wanted to and Turkey couldn't be forced to take them.
So far from being bold, Angela Merkel's decision to accept the refugees was a recognition of practical inevitability. In my view, however, she made two mistakes which is where cultural guilt may have played a part. First, she did not make the amnesty a one-off for those already in Europe and coupling them with much fiercer measures to keep refugees from starting the journey. And secondly, the failure to put in place much more stringent screening and processing leads to peoples bringing their own cultural behaviour from warzones and highly sexist societies unfiltered onto the streets of Germany.
Labour should be defending the BBC from Tory attacks on its funding and independence, not using it to deflect from our own troubles.
If say, the results in Nord Pas de Calais and Provence had put FN first, Left second, Right third, FN would likely have won both in Round Two.
And, to keep everything in perspective, FN went from 118 seats to 356.
If Sarkozy is the candidate he's liable to skirt so close to Le Pen during the campaign that he will alienate a lot of socialist voters, while at the same time Marine Le Pen will be able to emphasise her anti-globalist left-wing economic programme, such as it is.
I don't think it's clear-cut that she would prefer to face Hollande in a run-off.
Is anyone offering odds on the year of the referendum? I see that Betfair have a market on the referendum taking place in this Parliament, but that's 1/12 in favour.
I believe what David wrote is correct.
One of the consequences is that leave will get an uplift, wether this will be enough to get leave over the line, I doubt.
However I am voting to leave, as it will be the only honest way to gain more independence/ control over are own borders.
The public know that Camerons proposed migration figures is a sham and a total insult to their intelligence.
The root of the problem is the collapse of much of the Middle East and North Africa into failed states engaged in civil war. There is no easy way to solve that one, but remember that one other legacy of WW2 is that Germany did not get militarily involved in the Middle East (though I think there are some in Afghanistan). That was our call along with the French and USA.
Well, it might be German birth rates. It might be concern about the possibility of utter humanitarian catastrophe in the Middle East. Either way, there are plenty of alternatives beyond "bloody Muslims, the woman must be mad". I'd rather hear about those first than shutting the analysis down if you're going to be doing this professionally.
And 3 out of 4 are critical of the leadership...
The Germans have a calculating and rational political culture - there wasn't much time for romanticism after 1945. If they are convinced that refugees are more criminal than their peers, that would actually make a difference to the debate, but they do not believe it yet.
Maybe it neither.
My own view is that the only sensible leader in the EU is Cameron and they and we should listen to him.
In any case, it's not just Merkel - it's the whole German political / ruling class. Were she so out of step, she'd have been opposed in her policy. It's only now, after serious consequences are starting to be felt, that voices are being raised against it - and even there, mayors, interior ministers and police chiefs are still trotting out the same old lines: it's the public rather than politicians who are leading the opposition.
Cameron got this one bang right.
And this quote - "women are the victims here yet it is our freedom that is being curtailed".
Well quite.
T'was ever thus. No more.
We should not be letting in people from countries which are failed states, from cultures and communities with very different values to our own and anyone, whether immigrant or asylum seeker, who commits a crime should be deported back to their country of origin, no matter how ghastly. We have no obligation to open our doors to criminals.
And the very first thing the police should be doing is going through all the evidence and catching and prosecuting the criminals. And secondly ensuring that the streets are safe for women to be on, safe for all law abiding citizens to be on.
It looks to me as if the Cologne police response was rather hesitant and hindered unduly by concerns of sensitivity. In many ways it is similar to the hesitant response of our own police to the summer riots following the Duggan shooting.
For all its horrors, no-one died in Cologne. The Police were prepared for a usual NYE with the main problems being crowd control and overindulgence. To convert to riot control with the riot squads and watercannon could have provoked a real riot with fatalities, not least amongst the innocent revellers. This was an unexpected "flashmob" type incident, not something like a political demonstration or football derby where the riot teams are on standby. Not an easy one for the police command to deal with on the night. The Paris attacks may have meant that armed countrr terror squads were on call, but very different to watercannon and riot shields, different personel too.
The response now needs to be forthright. A call for all images to be reviewed by the police, smartphones and CCTV are ubiquitous. Then dawn raids and internment of those responsible followed by deportation or imprisonment.
Merkel is right about the need for changes to the refugee convention and HR law re deportation.
Good but, as one of the comments says, it's not as funny as the actual events.
Well quite.
T'was ever thus. No more.
We should not be letting in people from countries which are failed states, from cultures and communities with very different values to our own and anyone, whether immigrant or asylum seeker, who commits a crime should be deported back to their country of origin, no matter how ghastly. We have no obligation to open our doors to criminals.
And the very first thing the police should be doing is going through all the evidence and catching and prosecuting the criminals. And secondly ensuring that the streets are safe for women to be on, safe for all law abiding citizens to be on.
Europeans are beginning to realise (or remember) what borders are for.
There was no reporting whatsoever until about a week after the event.
It's since emerged comparable things happened in Helsinki, Dusseldorf, and elsewhere.
It is an appalling mistake. One from which women in Germany and elsewhere are suffering, one which is causing problems for Jewish communities and which will cause issues for all of us.
Deportation of criminals - provided it is actually done - is one answer. Drastically curbing immigration another. And rewriting the refugee conventions to reflect the world as it us now and what the people of Europe feel about immigration - and not just what the liberal elites think we should feel - is a third.
I'm not holding my breath.
'Well, it might be German birth rates. It might be concern about the possibility of utter humanitarian catastrophe in the Middle East. Either way, there are plenty of alternatives beyond "bloody Muslims, the woman must be mad".
Strange that identical attacks took place in Sweden & Helsinki,not to mention other German cities by the same ethnic groups,separately we witnessed female child abuse on an industrial scale in the UK again by the same ethnic groups.
All of course a massive coincidence or time to wake up and smell the coffee ?
I would suggest the term 'behind the curve' was made for people like Mr Sox. Read the news, Europe is on fire.
Meanwhile a new poll has Trump beating Hillary by four points in a match up. That's BEATING Hillary. I read that on Breitbart. It's not a site I like, but hey, that's where the news is these days.
There is a distinction here. Voters aren;t angry at muslims. They are angry at the authorities and the media, who for days were happy to cover these dreadful events up to further their political agenda.
The mask is slipping. It's becoming apparent that many of those who rule us despise us.
Germany is one of the few major European countries which didn't go in for colonizing the world and as a result have fewer ethnic minorities than most other EU countries.
One of the notable features of German cities is the absence of brown and black faces. There's a large Turkish population but they were invited in to feed the German economic powerhouse of the 60's and 70's and with a few blips have integrated well.
With an educated population and a more thoughtful press foreigners of whatever creed and colour are not as frightening to Germans as they are over here so when they saw the plight of the Syrian refugees their first thought was compassion not fear.
My feeling is that the panic and hysteria after Cologne will not be being felt over there as it is over here. They are much more pragmatic than we are and without our salacious press to stir things up the newcomers will assimilate reasonably quickly
'Deportation of criminals - provided it is actually done - is one answer. Drastically curbing immigration another. And rewriting the refugee conventions to reflect the world as it us now and what the people of Europe feel about immigration - and not just what the liberal elites think we should feel - is a third.
I'm not holding my breath.'
More bullshit from Merkel to-day,who knows perfectly well that there is no way that Syrian migrants convicted of crimes can be deported back to Syria & in any case Human Rights laws are massively stacked in favour of criminals making it virtually impossible to deport them.
Yes we all have to learn from the mistakes of the past but Germany really does need to move on. The society created by Fredrick the Great died with the unconditional surrender in 1945.
Any delay in reacting was no more than a few days and bear in mind this flashmob of molestors disappeared as quickly as it appeared. Contrast with the behaviour of our police and social services which turned a blind eye to sex exploitation in various towns for decades, or the initial standoffishness and slow response to the Duggan riots in London that were ongoing.
I have on multiple occassions here advocated better control of illegal immigration on this board. I think the migrant crisis has been handled badly across Europe, both within and outside the EU.
You are looking at this the wrong way around. I would suggest voters are far more angry at the attitude of the authorities and the media to these events (whatever, live with it) than they are angry at the muslim world.
Flooding happened during across the New Year. There was no trouble covering that here. A five day delay due to political ideology suppressing the news by ignoring reality is unacceptable.
Not only were women terrified, molested and (in two reported instances) raped, the police were unable to protect them and then the political/media class (partially, at least) conspired to ignore the mass crime and then to downplay it.
Remember Ralf Jaeger, interior minister for North Rhine/Westphalia [think I got the area name right] stating that online right wing dickheadishness was 'at least as bad' as the sexual crimes that were committed?
Imagine being groped, or even raped, then having a senior regional politician come out with that. It's despicable.