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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The left could be preparing for Corbyn to stand down & be replaced by McDonnell

There have been suggestions that Corbyn has found aspects of the job, particularly what could be seen as intrusions into his family life, difficult to cope with.

Read the full story here

RodCrosby

Two more from NH

WBUR/MassINC Trump 29, Rubio 12, Cruz 12, Kasich 9, Bush 9, Christie 6, Fiorina 8, Carson 4

(in terms of delegates: 16,2,2)

Boston Globe/Suffolk Trump 29, Rubio 19, Cruz 7, Kasich 13, Bush 10, Christie 5, Fiorina 4, Carson 4

(in terms of delegates: 11,4,0,3,2)

Trump seems to be fading, but while the field remains so wide, he can afford to.

Scott_P

Christmas comes early for Cameron? Again.

Plato_Says

Ken should be careful what he wishes for and fate tempting.

Atropos might just decide to intervene in unexpected ways

AndyJS

The only person more unelectable than Corbyn.

oxfordsimon

If you thought Labour jumped the shark last autumn... well they have just found another one to leap over.

This is beyond anything that would be considered credible in fantasy fiction

Scott_P

What's the phrase? Oh, yes...

Embarrassing. Embarrassing. Embarrassing.

TheScreamingEagles

Some of us are on this at 50/1 and 40/1

Plato_Says

For me, there's a difference in Danger Level between McIRA and Jezza.

The latter is just inept, geography teacher CND Commie standard. With no self awareness when it comes to keeping his mouth shut. Uber nukes being the latest humdinger.

McIRA has that oily Gerry Adams smooth talker, smart suit snake quality. I'm actively concerned by him, Corbyn - never in a million years

RodCrosby

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

TheScreamingEagles

On topic. I refuse to believe the Tories will be that lucky, again

richardDodd

Unbelievably ..this would be worse than Corbyn

PAW

Reminds me of way Ken Livingstone suddenly appeared as the man running the GLC...

rottenborough

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

Excellent point.

Speedy

The afternoon N.H polls with changes:

B.G/Suffolk

Trump 29 +2
Rubio 19 +9
Kasish 13 +1
Bush 10 -1
Cruz 7 -5
Christie 5 -1
Fiorina 4 0
Carson 4 -1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FINAL_GOP_Marginals_Feb_NH.pdf

WBUR (last one in December)

Trump 29 +2
Rubio 12 +1
Cruz 12 +2
Kasich 9 +2
Bush 9 +2
Fiorina 8 +5
Christie 6 -6
Carson 4 -2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Topline_WBUR_NH_Primary_7.pdf

Trump's vote is holding just like in the other half dozen N.H polls since Iowa, but Rubio is going up.
One day till the GOP debate and 5 days till the snowstorm on polling day.

OldKingCole

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

Agree

Richard_Nabavi

Luckily, the Labour leadership is not in Ken Livingstone's gift. Labour MPs wouldn't let McDonnell, who is widely and rightly detested, get the crown without a full contest. It would certainly be messy.

Whether McDonnell could end up winning would obviously depend on who his opponent or opponents was. He's probably pick up quite a lot of the same loony-left selectorate which propelled Corbyn into the leadership, but he's not as superficially likeable so it's not obvious.

50/1 was a spiffing bet. 18/1 is still good IMO.

Plato_Says

Could Jezza just be *ill* and McIRA run the show in his *temporary* absence = as a stunt double.

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

ydoethur

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

It is hard to imagine a nomination procedure that would get John Macdonnell onto the ballot. Nobody has yet devised a practicable way of using black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, any two of which would be required.

Plato_Says

Funny you mention that...

PAW said:

Reminds me of way Ken Livingstone suddenly appeared as the man running the GLC...

Morris_Dancer

Reasoning seems sound. Put a few pounds on it (20/1 at Ladbrokes, incidentally).

RodCrosby

rottenborough said:

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

Excellent point.

And until they achieve that, Corbyn will be sitting tight.

Sunil_Prasannan

Plato_Says said:

For me, there's a difference in Danger Level between McIRA and Jezza.

The latter is just inept, geography teacher CND Commie standard. With no self awareness when it comes to keeping his mouth shut. Uber nukes being the latest humdinger.

McIRA has that oily Gerry Adams smooth talker, smart suit snake quality. I'm actively concerned by him, Corbyn - never in a million years

richardDodd said:

Unbelievably ..this would be worse than Corbyn

Scott_P said:

What's the phrase? Oh, yes...

Embarrassing. Embarrassing. Embarrassing.

oxfordsimon said:

If you thought Labour jumped the shark last autumn... well they have just found another one to leap over.

This is beyond anything that would be considered credible in fantasy fiction

AndyJS said:

The only person more unelectable than Corbyn.

Naught but PB Tory Propaganda!!!

ydoethur

Plato_Says said:

Could Jezza just be *ill* and McIRA run the show in his *temporary* absence = as a stunt double.

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

Under those circumstances surely it would be Watson who took over?

God help Labour, that sounds like a far more attractive option...

MarkHopkins

Richard_Nabavi said:

Luckily, the Labour leadership is not in Ken Livingstone's gift. Labour MPs wouldn't let McDonnell, who is widely and rightly detested, get the crown without a full contest. It would certainly be messy.

Whether McDonnell could end up winning would obviously depend on who his opponent or opponents was. He's probably pick up quite a lot of the same loony-left selectorate which propelled Corbyn into the leadership, but he's not as superficially likeable so it's not obvious.

50/1 was a spiffing bet. 18/1 is still good IMO.

If it went to a full ballot, McDonnell wouldn't get enough MPs to get on it.

LadyBucket

Jeremy Corbyn looks as though he has aged 10 years in the last few months, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth in these rumours.

John McDonnell is a thoroughly nasty piece of work but always comes across as Mr Reasonable. To those who don't follow politics, he probably comes across quite well.

I'm reminded yet again of Kelvin McKenzie's comments on QT a few weeks ago, that by the time of the next election, some of Labour's message may start to resonate.

I don't think the next GE is a foregone conclusion and I'm old enough to have seen quite a few!

Richard_Nabavi

ydoethur said:

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

It is hard to imagine a nomination procedure that would get John Macdonnell onto the ballot. Nobody has yet devised a practicable way of using black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, any two of which would be required.

Doesn't need black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, it just needs 35 bonkers Labour MPs. Not a particularly high bar.

oxfordsimon

MarkHopkins said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Luckily, the Labour leadership is not in Ken Livingstone's gift. Labour MPs wouldn't let McDonnell, who is widely and rightly detested, get the crown without a full contest. It would certainly be messy.

Whether McDonnell could end up winning would obviously depend on who his opponent or opponents was. He's probably pick up quite a lot of the same loony-left selectorate which propelled Corbyn into the leadership, but he's not as superficially likeable so it's not obvious.

50/1 was a spiffing bet. 18/1 is still good IMO.

If it went to a full ballot, McDonnell wouldn't get enough MPs to get on it.

oh, he would. There are enough idiots wanting to get on to vote for him

Speedy

The biggest obstacle will be to get McDonnell on the ballot, Corbyn has lost one MP due to death already, being replaced by a Liz Kendall one.

I don't see how he can get 15% of the Labour MP's this side of the GE.
After the GE it's more probable that he will get the numbers to go on the ballot.

Plato_Says

But Jezza would still be leader... see where I'm going here.

I think PBers are looking at the Rule Book and not the behaviour of the players.

ydoethur said:

Plato_Says said:

Could Jezza just be *ill* and McIRA run the show in his *temporary* absence = as a stunt double.

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

Under those circumstances surely it would be Watson who took over?

God help Labour, that sounds like a far more attractive option...

ydoethur

Richard_Nabavi said:

ydoethur said:

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

It is hard to imagine a nomination procedure that would get John Macdonnell onto the ballot. Nobody has yet devised a practicable way of using black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, any two of which would be required.

Doesn't need black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, it just needs 35 bonkers Labour MPs. Not a particularly high bar.

I am no fan of Labour MPs, but I cannot name 35 who are THAT bonkers.

Most such people are disbarred from standing on grounds of insanity.

AlastairMeeks

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nabavi, quite, but the PLP has also seen what's happened with Corbyn.

That said, McDonnell would be a sort of status quo candidate rather than a leap from Miliband socialism to Corbyn communism, so it'd be less of an issue, and the leftists and three pounders would make their feelings quite well-known, I'd've thought.

rottenborough

LadyBucket said:

Jeremy Corbyn looks as though he has aged 10 years in the last few months, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth in these rumours.

John McDonnell is a thoroughly nasty piece of work but always comes across as Mr Reasonable. To those who don't follow politics, he probably comes across quite well.

I'm reminded yet again of Kelvin McKenzie's comments on QT a few weeks ago, that by the time of the next election, some of Labour's message may start to resonate.

I don't think the next GE is a foregone conclusion and I'm old enough to have seen quite a few!

I agree there is a chance that some of the economic and anti-austerity stuff might be starting to pick up votes, especially if there's another down-turn. Housing might be another area where the Tories suddenly find themselves in deep trouble with a growing part of the electorate.

But, and it's a massive but, this would need to trump the 'Corbyn is a huge risk to national security' card that is going to be played from now until 2020.

Richard_Nabavi

To be clear, I'm not suggesting a challenge to Corbyn, but a transition with Corbyn's support if he decided to step down because this politics malarkey turned out to be harder than he thought.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Doethur, worth recalling Corbyn got the nod from 35 MPs.

Admittedly, that was because many of them were so stupid they didn't even understand how their own leadership election worked...

JohnLilburne

Speedy said:

The biggest obstacle will be to get McDonnell on the ballot, Corbyn has lost one MP due to death already, being replaced by a Liz Kendall one.

I don't see how he can get 15% of the Labour MP's this side of the GE.
After the GE it's more probable that he will get the numbers to go on the ballot.

Well, yes, he'll only need about 15 then.

ydoethur

Speedy said:

The biggest obstacle will be to get McDonnell on the ballot, Corbyn has lost one MP due to death already, being replaced by a Liz Kendall one.

I don't see how he can get 15% of the Labour MP's this side of the GE.
After the GE it's more probable that he will get the numbers to go on the ballot.

After the GE the way things are going he'll be the only MP left anyway.

(OK, that's an exaggeration. But Labour are imploding rapidly and this suggestion shows that they are not yet at bottom. This could make the Tories in the 90s look like a teddy bears' picnic.)

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, worth recalling Corbyn got the nod from 35 MPs.

Admittedly, that was because many of them were so stupid they didn't even understand how their own leadership election worked...

To quote the late, great W. E. Johns, their mistake has been brought so vividly to their attention that they will never be guilty of it again.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

It is hard to imagine a nomination procedure that would get John Macdonnell onto the ballot. Nobody has yet devised a practicable way of using black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, any two of which would be required.

Or a bunch of guys with baseball bats.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695671322752450561

TheScreamingEagles

I do wonder who commissioned that YouGov poll?

NickPalmer

Ken is a rogue - lovable or not according to taste - but not really close to anyone: Corbyn has quietly put him down several times now (no, Ken, we're not reviewing NATO membership, no, Ken, you're not co-chairing the defence review). I'm sure McDonnell would win if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and the nomination procedures didn't prevent it, but otherwise Corbyn isn't going anywhere. Everyone in politics thinks leaderships change far more often than they actually do.

Personally I think the bet for people willing to hang on to the next Parliament or later is Khan. If he wins in May (probable) and there does eventually come a "Blair moment" when the party decides that being left-wing isn't enough and they need a proven winner, there's a reasonable chance that their gaze will alight on him. Not being an MP at that time would be a problrem, but not an inspuerable one, as Boris hopes to demonstrate.

JosiasJessop

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

Well for one thing, I (and others on here) have been receiving leaflets from the Remain campaign. That's more than any of the Leave groups appear to have managed (I've not received any, and I haven't seen any reports on here from anyone receiving them).

The Leave campaign appear to be waiting for events to win it for them, and even then fighting against it. In fact events may well win it for them, but it won't be down to the quality of their campaigning.

I also remind you of the problems with relying on polling. I've got absolutely no idea what the true picture is out there on the street, and neither do you outside anecdata.

Wanderer

Richard_Nabavi said:

ydoethur said:

RodCrosby said:

On-topic: Surely this will involve changing the nomination procedure?

It is hard to imagine a nomination procedure that would get John Macdonnell onto the ballot. Nobody has yet devised a practicable way of using black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, any two of which would be required.

Doesn't need black magic, alchemy or mass hypnosis, it just needs 35 bonkers Labour MPs. Not a particularly high bar.

I think from here on Labour MPs will take the nominating process desperately seriously. There won't be any sympathy nominations, no "broaden the debate" or "the left must have a voice" crap. McDonnell will be nominated if there are >=35 MPs who prefer him as leader to any other candidates.

Plato_Says

I did that YouGov and wasn't impressed by the Your MP question. It was attempting to force me into saying I'd deselect mine for disagreeing with my views on the EU, I'd rather they voted with their conscience like the rest of us.

But that wasn't an option. Poorly worded stuff.

isam

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

david_herdson

"What’s odd is that the former London Mayor should be talking in these terms at all barely five months after Corbyn was elected."

What's odd is that Ken has chosen to raise the issue of Corbyn's leadership at the first time since he was elected when it wasn't under some kind of crisis, courtesy of the Cameron's distraction.

However, while I agree about the value of the bet, I disagree with the thinking. I don't believe Corbyn is planning on standing down. Apart from anything else, how sure is McDonnell of gaining the nominations necessary? The MPs could easily keep him off the ballot. What I think this is about is Ken, on behalf of the left, making it clear that if Corbyn is somehow ousted, they won't take it lying down and will go for a win again.

TheScreamingEagles

Awkward

Wife crashes her own funeral, horrifying her husband, who had paid to have her killed

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/02/05/wife-crashes-her-own-funeral-horrifying-her-husband-who-had-paid-have-her-killed/?tid=ss_tw

Morris_Dancer

Don't forget Corbyn's get his mitts on the Party's machinery. Given he thinks changing the entire UK electoral system without a referendum is a good idea, what are the odds he'll be happy to alter the Labour leadership rules to sideline the PLP even more?

Plato_Says

Seen zero EU literature and zero Facebook advertising. It's all Leave variants on Twitter sent to each other, nothing from Remain at all. Zilch.

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

Well for one thing, I (and others on here) have been receiving leaflets from the Remain campaign. That's more than any of the Leave groups appear to have managed (I've not received any, and I haven't seen any reports on here from anyone receiving them).

The Leave campaign appear to be waiting for events to win it for them, and even then fighting against it. In fact events may well win it for them, but it won't be down to the quality of their campaigning.

I also remind you of the problems with relying on polling. I've got absolutely no idea what the true picture is out there on the street, and neither do you outside anecdata.

williamglenn

Scott_P said:

What's the phrase? Oh, yes...

Embarrassing. Embarrassing. Embarrassing.

Re-education, Re-education, Re-education.

ydoethur

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

It is a mark of how far Labour have fallen that I, who consider Ed Balls to be an egotistical fool with a much over-rated intellect and but a shaky grasp of politics or economics, have been wishing desperately he were back in the Commons to sort out this desperate mess.

That Labour should come to this after their narrowest electoral defeat. Oh how are the mighty fallen.

rottenborough

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

Ed has said he's through with politics.

Speedy

Gravis N.H

Trump 29 -6
Rubio 19 +10
Cruz 15 +5
Kasich 13 -2
Bush 8 +1
Christie 6 -2
Carson 4 +3
Fiorina 4 -1

http://www.oann.com/pollnh/

I think Rubio is going to win N.H barring an act of God.
Which may happen if that snowstorm hits hard on pensioner turnout, for some reason his base of support are pensioners.

NorfolkTilIDie

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

In last couple of weeks Remain campaign have been pulled apart by Speccie for using dodgy numbers, claimed a think tank's number were suspect because Matt Elliott once worked there when he didn't, and had their main spokesman say Cameron's migration reforms won't work. They might be more competent than Leave campaign but there ain't much in it.

david_herdson

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

rottenborough

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

You can get 67 for Gloria. I'm tempted I have to say.

Pulpstar

25s with Paddy £3.44 allowed
20s with Hills £4
22s with Skybet £2.27 allowed.

Betting by a thousand cuts !

isam

rottenborough said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

You can get 67 for Gloria. I'm tempted I have to say.

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

It is a mark of how far Labour have fallen that I, who consider Ed Balls to be an egotistical fool with a much over-rated intellect and but a shaky grasp of politics or economics, have been wishing desperately he were back in the Commons to sort out this desperate mess.

That Labour should come to this after their narrowest electoral defeat. Oh how are the mighty fallen.

If only Alan Johnson could be persuaded that it was worth giving up the book tours. A change to Johnson a few months before GE 2020 would leave the contest wide open IMHO.

isam

Pulpstar said:

25s with Paddy £3.44 allowed
20s with Hills £4
22s with Skybet £2.27 allowed.

Betting by a thousand cuts !

I honestly don't know how you can be bothered

The other day @david_herdson said Priti Patel was worth a bet for next Tory leader and I agreed so deposited a score w Coral to back the 50/1... £1 allowed. Couldn't be bothered to take it

rottenborough

isam said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

You can get 67 for Gloria. I'm tempted I have to say.

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

As I say, he has been quoted that he is giving up politics, absolutely, definitely, had enough etc etc.

Never, say never...

MarqueeMark

rottenborough said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

Ed has said he's through with politics.

He's got a full time job - trying to keep Norwich a top flight football club....

isam

rottenborough said:

isam said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

50/1 is old hat, though I'm happy with that bet. I've got a rather longer shot for this market coming up.

Surely Ed Balls

You can get 67 for Gloria. I'm tempted I have to say.

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

As I say, he has been quoted that he is giving up politics, absolutely, definitely, had enough etc etc.

Never, say never...

Well it must have been while you were kissing him

http://www.cityam.com/220432/ed-balls-never-say-never-political-comeback

rottenborough

Speedy said:

Gravis N.H

Trump 29 -6
Rubio 19 +10
Cruz 15 +5
Kasich 13 -2
Bush 8 +1
Christie 6 -2
Carson 4 +3
Fiorina 4 -1

http://www.oann.com/pollnh/

I think Rubio is going to win N.H barring an act of God.
Which may happen if that snowstorm hits hard on pensioner turnout, for some reason his base of support are pensioners.

Cheering news for me before I head to the pub. I placed a bet on Rubio for POTUS only this morning.

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

Yeah.

It would certainly electrify things if he did stand in the by-election.

I wonder whether Tom Watson has dropped by the Cooper-Balls household recently?

williamglenn

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/fluechtlinge-oesterreich-will-notfalls-soldaten-auf-den-balkan-schicken-a-1075965.html

Refugee crisis: Austria talking about sending the army into Serbia to stop the flow of migrants. Have I heard about this development somewhere before?

Danny565

Hmph. Although I really don't like McDonnell, since he gets involved in the kind of petty grudges and factionalism within Labour which Corbyn does largely eschew, I have to admit I do find his manner in media interviews oddly compelling.

rottenborough

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

Yeah.

It would certainly electrify things if he did stand in the by-election.

I wonder whether Tom Watson has dropped by the Cooper-Balls household recently?

80/1 would certainly drop dramatically if he did announce for Sheffield. Chance for a later lay.

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

Yeah.

It would certainly electrify things if he did stand in the by-election.

I wonder whether Tom Watson has dropped by the Cooper-Balls household recently?

It would be good for the country if he did become next Lab Leader as the Tories would have to shift to the right

Apols to @JosiasJessop I am discussing one of the things I said I never did in response to him on last thread

Pulpstar

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

Yeah.

It would certainly electrify things if he did stand in the by-election.

I wonder whether Tom Watson has dropped by the Cooper-Balls household recently?

80/1 would certainly drop dramatically if he did announce for Sheffield. Chance for a later lay.

That's a bloody big "if".

Danny565

No chance of Ed Balls. He is hated by the grassroots (not just Corbynistas) for "forcing" a pro-austerity stance on the party at the election, and blamed for the defeat.

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

It would be good for the country if he did become next Lab Leader as the Tories would have to shift to the right

It would be good for the country to have a competent opposition, and even better to lift the threat, no matter how remote, of a Corbyn/McDonnell government.

John_M

Good evening all.

If this actually happens, I'll be straight out to buy Southam a "With Deepest Sympathies" card.

John_M

williamglenn said:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/fluechtlinge-oesterreich-will-notfalls-soldaten-auf-den-balkan-schicken-a-1075965.html

Refugee crisis: Austria talking about sending the army into Serbia to stop the flow of migrants. Have I heard about this development somewhere before?

Are you sure it said 'army' and not 'archduke'? Because the latter would definitely be worrying.

Wanderer

williamglenn said:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/fluechtlinge-oesterreich-will-notfalls-soldaten-auf-den-balkan-schicken-a-1075965.html

Refugee crisis: Austria talking about sending the army into Serbia to stop the flow of migrants. Have I heard about this development somewhere before?

Does Merkel have a Schlieffen Plan up her sleeve?

SimonStClare

Danny565 said:

No chance of Ed Balls. He is hated by the grassroots (not just Corbynistas) for "forcing" a pro-austerity stance on the party at the election, and blamed for the defeat.

De mortuis nil nisi bonum.

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

It would be good for the country if he did become next Lab Leader as the Tories would have to shift to the right

It would be good for the country to have a competent opposition, and even better to lift the threat, no matter how remote, of a Corbyn/McDonnell government.

Yes fair point

If he stood in Sheffield I would want him to win actually

Plato_Says

These are rather fun

http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

Danny565

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

It would be good for the country if he did become next Lab Leader as the Tories would have to shift to the right

It would be good for the country to have a competent opposition, and even better to lift the threat, no matter how remote, of a Corbyn/McDonnell government.

I love the crocodile tears PBTories are shedding over the "lack of competent opposition".

As useless as Labour are, it seems to me the Tories are thankfully facing a lot more resistance to their policies in this term so far than they did in the last parliament - largely, because the swing votes this time are a set of surprisingly good new Tory MPs who have a conscience (notably Heidi Allen), rather than the supine Lib Dem MPs. I highly doubt tax credit cuts and the Human Rights Act scrapping would've been U-turned on in the last parliament. I also hear Northern Tory MPs are getting increasingly angry about how Osborne is forcing to make councils make huge cuts, so a u-turn on that could be forthcoming too.

JosiasJessop

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

Pulpstar

John McDonnell next PM £3 at 410.0 ^^;

Plato_Says

Sky News understands the Government is trying to elicit the services of Lynton Crosby over worries that David Cameron's EU deal is being portrayed too negatively by the press.

http://news.sky.com/story/1636884/pm-turns-to-crosby-as-eu-campaign-falters

Richard_Nabavi

Danny565 said:

I love the crocodile tears PBTories are shedding over the "lack of competent opposition".

As useless as Labour are, it seems to me the Tories are thankfully facing a lot more resistance to their policies in this term so far than they did in the last parliament - largely, because the swing votes this time are a set of surprisingly good new Tory MPs who have a conscience (notably Heidi Allen), rather than the supine Lib Dem MPs. I highly doubt tax credit cuts and the Human Rights Act scrapping would've been U-turned on in the last parliament. I also hear Northern Tory MPs are getting increasingly angry about how Osborne is forcing to make councils make huge cuts, so a u-turn on that could be forthcoming too.

That's true, but it doesn't mean that it's a good idea for the opposition to go loony. In the short term it's not a problem, of course, and the majority is small so Tory rebels have a lot of influence. In the longer term, the lack of a sane opposition is a void in our democracy.

JosiasJessop

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

80/1 for Balls worth a pop I reckon

Safe seat by election looming

Yeah.

It would certainly electrify things if he did stand in the by-election.

I wonder whether Tom Watson has dropped by the Cooper-Balls household recently?

It would be good for the country if he did become next Lab Leader as the Tories would have to shift to the right

Apols to @JosiasJessop I am discussing one of the things I said I never did in response to him on last thread

Eh?

John_M

Danny565 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

It would be good for the country if he did become next Lab Leader as the Tories would have to shift to the right

It would be good for the country to have a competent opposition, and even better to lift the threat, no matter how remote, of a Corbyn/McDonnell government.

I love the crocodile tears PBTories are shedding over the "lack of competent opposition".

As useless as Labour are, it seems to me the Tories are thankfully facing a lot more resistance to their policies in this term so far than they did in the last parliament - largely, because the swing votes this time are a set of surprisingly good new Tory MPs who have a conscience (notably Heidi Allen), rather than the supine Lib Dem MPs. I highly doubt tax credit cuts and the Human Rights Act scrapping would've been U-turned on in the last parliament. I also hear Northern Tory MPs are getting increasingly angry about how Osborne is forcing to make councils make huge cuts, so a u-turn on that could be forthcoming too.

It's not crocodile tears. Stop being partisan and think. Politicians, left to themselves, can easily make bad laws. They need proper scrutiny, regardless of the colour of their rosette.

The PLP is riven with dissent and conspiracies. That worries the hell out of me. They are not acting as an effective opposition. That's to the detriment of the country - and I'll always take country ahead of party.

NorfolkTilIDie

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

Remain stuff seems to be mainly saying 'Important person wants to stay in' or publicising arguments on other side. Neither are persuasive arguments to Joe Bloggs.

Sean_F

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

It's because Leave have better, more visceral arguments. They sound positive. They've got the emotional debate in the bag - Cry Freedom! Give us back our country! Strike off the chains!

REMAIN is all about dull facts designed to induce mild dread - 3 billion budgies will slowly die in Britain without access to European seeds etc etc

It's the same as indyref. With the notable difference that NO could rely on an emotional attachment to Britishness amongst 30-40% of Scots AS WELL as the effect of Project Fear.

All Remain has is Fear.

Perhaps 10% are emotionally attached to the EU.

Wanderer

Danny565 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

It would be good for the country if he did become next Lab Leader as the Tories would have to shift to the right

It would be good for the country to have a competent opposition, and even better to lift the threat, no matter how remote, of a Corbyn/McDonnell government.

I love the crocodile tears PBTories are shedding over the "lack of competent opposition".

As useless as Labour are, it seems to me the Tories are thankfully facing a lot more resistance to their policies in this term so far than they did in the last parliament - largely, because the swing votes this time are a set of surprisingly good new Tory MPs who have a conscience (notably Heidi Allen), rather than the supine Lib Dem MPs. I highly doubt tax credit cuts and the Human Rights Act scrapping would've been U-turned on in the last parliament. I also hear Northern Tory MPs are getting increasingly angry about how Osborne is forcing to make councils make huge cuts, so a u-turn on that could be forthcoming too.

I think what we lack is an opposition that is a believable alternative government. That in itself encourages internal opposition within the Tory Party because they (some of them at least) think the next election is in the bag. We still get some scrutiny of individual policies, as you say, but we don't get the feeling that we could throw this particular set of rascals out and we always want governments to have that thought in their minds.

I am genuinely worried as to what a Conservative government might look like by the mid 2020s if it feels there is no threat to its existence. Would it be competent or clean? I can guess.

Pulpstar

Plato_Says said:

Sky News understands the Government is trying to elicit the services of Lynton Crosby over worries that David Cameron's EU deal is being portrayed too negatively by the press.

http://news.sky.com/story/1636884/pm-turns-to-crosby-as-eu-campaign-falters

http://news.sky.com/story/1633092/sir-terry-wogan-dies-after-brave-cancer-battle

Apologies for linking the story about Sir Terry Wogan, I'm merely doing it to show that they have not referred to Lynton as "Sir Lynton" in the piece, which he is by fact........

david_herdson

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

Remain is putting out tweets like this, from a few minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/695682367768367104

It's a very questionable assertion and even if true, is both of minimal impact to most people and smacks of patronising attitude that EU Knows Best.

JosiasJessop

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

It's because Leave have better, more visceral arguments. They sound positive. They've got the emotional debate in the bag - Cry Freedom! Give us back our country! Strike off the chains!

REMAIN is all about dull facts designed to induce mild dread - 3 billion budgies will slowly die in Britain without access to European seeds etc etc

It's the same as indyref. With the notable difference that NO could rely on an emotional attachment to Britishness amongst 30-40% of Scots AS WELL as the effect of Project Fear.

All Remain has is Fear.

Considering you're saying events with Syria and immigration may well win it for Leave (which it might), then it's clear all Leave has is fear.

I dislike Remain's economic arguments: the jobs ones are particularly ridiculous given their history. The business arguments (on both sides) are also rather crass: we can be a success in or out of the EU in the short term (I tend to agree with RCS about the medium and long term situation wrt a two-speed Europe, and this is one of the main reasons I'll probably vote to leave)

You may say that Leave have better, more visceral arguments, but that's pointless in my case as I haven't seen them. No FB posts. No mailshots. No ads on websites I visit. I have seen a fair few for Remain. If they're going down the new media route then they're fighting with one hand tied behind their back. It didn't do Labour much good at the GE.

Wanderer

david_herdson said:

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

Remain is putting out tweets like this, from a few minutes ago:

twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/695682367768367104

It's a very questionable assertion and even if true, is both of minimal impact to most people and smacks of patronising attitude that EU Knows Best.

There is a audience that might play with. It doesn't post on here.

Richard_Nabavi

david_herdson said:

It's a very questionable assertion and even if true, is both of minimal impact to most people and smacks of patronising attitude that EU Knows Best.

I don't think that's trying to persuade anyone. I'd guess it is fishing for information for micro-targetting purposes.

John_M

david_herdson said:

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

Remain is putting out tweets like this, from a few minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/695682367768367104

It's a very questionable assertion and even if true, is both of minimal impact to most people and smacks of patronising attitude that EU Knows Best.

The UK is streets ahead of other countries when it comes to LGBT rights. Several EU countries still require sterilisation before gender change is permitted. As you say, 'tis bollocks and patronising bollocks at that.

JosiasJessop

david_herdson said:

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

Remain is putting out tweets like this, from a few minutes ago:

(snip)
It's a very questionable assertion and even if true, is both of minimal impact to most people and smacks of patronising attitude that EU Knows Best.

Thanks. That certainly is questionable.

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

JosiasJessop said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

fpt for Josias

Remain seem at least "half competent"? Interesting. In what way? Can you name one single dazzling performance by a Remain campaigner, one speech, one article, one solitary sentence which has demonstrably affected the public mood in favour of IN?

No. You can't. All we've seen is Stuart Rose mumbling and fumbling, Alan Johnson saying"we should listen to the prime minister because he's the prime minister," and that same prime minister bringing home a "whole new relationship with the EU" which turns out to be an extra go on the Berlaymont pooltable, every second Friday, if the French head home before 10pm.

Indeed, such is the brilliance of this fantastically competent Remain campaign, the PM's deal has driven LEAVE to its highest polling in many months.

I've Followed both Leave and Remain campaigns on Twitter and Leave (principally @LeaveEUOfficial) is putting out more stuff and much better stuff than anything that Remain (@StrongerIn) has come up with.

Remain isn't competent. It is, however, united.

That's interesting. Leaving aside the question of how effective a medium Twitter is for such things, it'd be good to know why their stuff is much better.

Remain is putting out tweets like this, from a few minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/695682367768367104

It's a very questionable assertion and even if true, is both of minimal impact to most people and smacks of patronising attitude that EU Knows Best.

Jim Messina is reportedly working for Remain.

I think it's a subtle dog whistle to some voters that UKIP opposed gay marriage and think gay marriage causes flooding.

Do you really want to be on the same side as these people.

Pulpstar

Leave.eu have the biggest social media presence of all the campaigns.

Plato_Says

And it's smothered in UKIP logos rather too often - I just don't want to send it on. I don't support them and see no reason to promote their Party.

Pulpstar said:

Leave.eu have the biggest social media presence of all the campaigns.

Pulpstar

Blimey, just noticed the "Grassroots out" ties...

Deary me !