Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Rubio faltering John Kasich could be the favoured non-

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Rubio faltering John Kasich could be the favoured non-Trump GOP contender in today’s New Hampshire primary

It’s primary election day in New Hampshire – the first full one of the 2016 campaign and the big developments over the past 24 hours have been on the Governor of Ohio John Kasich.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • First!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Second. Like Hillary.
  • Sub-sample warning:

    "The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.

    Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.

    Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    Sub-sample warning:

    "The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.

    Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.

    Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033

    How good a predictor has Dixville Notch been historically?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sub-sample warning:

    "The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.

    Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.

    Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033

    How good a predictor has Dixville Notch been historically?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sub-sample warning:

    "The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.

    Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.

    Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033

    How good a predictor has Dixville Notch been historically?
    During every election year since 1968, the candidate with the plurality of Dixville Notch's voters has been the eventual Republican nominee for president.

    On the Democratic side, however, the village's election results have less often predicted the nominee. In 2000, for example, Bill Bradley won the most votes among Dixville Notch's Democratic primary voters although Al Gore was the party's eventual nominee.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Sub-sample warning:

    "The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.

    Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.

    Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033

    Music to my ears
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sub-sample warning:

    "The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.

    Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.

    Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033

    How good a predictor has Dixville Notch been historically?
    Pretty decent. The last primary they got 'wrong' was the Dem 2004, when they went for Wesley Clark over John Kerry by 8-3 out of 15 voters. They also picked Bill Bradley over Gore in 2000. On the GOP side, Romney and Huntsman tied last time (two each (!)), as did Reagan and Bush in 1980 but not since 1964 have they not gone for the eventual nominee - which makes this result quite interesting!

    On the general election, they've not voted against the winner since 1996. Obama and Romney tied last time but that itself could be argued to be a fair representation of the result.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    I'm not sure I agree that Sanders voters would likely vote for Kasich, the guy most likely to be a threat to their man. Wouldn't they be more likely to vote for Trump or Cruz as the more right-wing bat-shit crazy contrast to Socialist bat-shit crazy Sanders?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    rcs1000 said:

    Sub-sample warning:

    "The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.

    Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.

    Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033

    How good a predictor has Dixville Notch been historically?
    During every election year since 1968, the candidate with the plurality of Dixville Notch's voters has been the eventual Republican nominee for president.

    On the Democratic side, however, the village's election results have less often predicted the nominee. In 2000, for example, Bill Bradley won the most votes among Dixville Notch's Democratic primary voters although Al Gore was the party's eventual nominee.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire
    In Dixville we trust
  • Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Assuming that Kasich is the eventual Republican contender and wins his home state of Ohio, how much more difficult does that make it for the Democrats to hold on to the White House? Are they any states it would be more difficult for the Republicans to hold with him as their candidate?

    And does anyone think Trump would win New York?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.
  • I'm not sure I agree that Sanders voters would likely vote for Kasich, the guy most likely to be a threat to their man. Wouldn't they be more likely to vote for Trump or Cruz as the more right-wing bat-shit crazy contrast to Socialist bat-shit crazy Sanders?

    I wonder if we're over crystal-balling the tactical voting game playing of all this? Are supporters of Sanders really that fussed about who comes second in the GOP race? Granted that we're not talking core Sanders supporters, who wouldn't cross over for anyone; we're talking mainstream Democrats given Sanders poll ratings, but still. With both races competitive, and with Sanders really needing a huge win to give him the momentum his campaign will need once the race goes national and South, I don't expect there to be too many tactical crossovers and those that there are might well cancel each other out to a large extent for the reasons you say.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Burnham on Today - acknowledged that it is not possible to reconcile the 2 positions on nuclear weapons within Labour.

    Thornbury coming on later...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Positioning for his post-Corbyn run...

    @PolhomeEditor: Andy Burnham says Labour splits on Trident may be "impossible to reconcile", says he would definitely vote for renewal. @BBCr4today
  • Second. Like Hillary.

    "What will be a good result for Hillary in her race against Bernie Sanders?" I asked a Democrat. He replied: "She'll be happy with second place."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12147434/Hillary-Clinton-is-fighting-for-her-political-life-in-New-Hampshire.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    I'm not sure I agree that Sanders voters would likely vote for Kasich, the guy most likely to be a threat to their man. Wouldn't they be more likely to vote for Trump or Cruz as the more right-wing bat-shit crazy contrast to Socialist bat-shit crazy Sanders?

    I wonder if we're over crystal-balling the tactical voting game playing of all this? Are supporters of Sanders really that fussed about who comes second in the GOP race? Granted that we're not talking core Sanders supporters, who wouldn't cross over for anyone; we're talking mainstream Democrats given Sanders poll ratings, but still. With both races competitive, and with Sanders really needing a huge win to give him the momentum his campaign will need once the race goes national and South, I don't expect there to be too many tactical crossovers and those that there are might well cancel each other out to a large extent for the reasons you say.
    If I were a Sanders-inclined Democrat*, I'd be more inclined to ensure my guy got over the line with a thumping win. They can then say that Hilary managed to win New Hampshire whilst going on to lose the nomination in 2008 - this time she is seen as so poor a candidate she even got whooped in New Hampshire...

    *take me out and shoot me now
  • Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.
    Bloomberg letting Trump in would be the worst result since Nader let Bush in.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    You could argue that Sanders vs Trump vs Bloomberg would be good for democracy in the US.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    You could argue that Sanders vs Trump vs Bloomberg would be good for democracy in the US.

    It would be good news for Bloomberg!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Surely, Bloomberg getting in the middle of Trump v Sanders would be like stepping into the middle of a war between Alien v Predator? He couldn't want either to win - and only stands if he thinks he could beat both?
  • Surely, Bloomberg getting in the middle of Trump v Sanders would be like stepping into the middle of a war between Alien v Predator? He couldn't want either to win - and only stands if he thinks he could beat both?

    Whoever wins, we lose.
  • Second. Like Hillary.

    "What will be a good result for Hillary in her race against Bernie Sanders?" I asked a Democrat. He replied: "She'll be happy with second place."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12147434/Hillary-Clinton-is-fighting-for-her-political-life-in-New-Hampshire.html
    Lol.
  • Surely, Bloomberg getting in the middle of Trump v Sanders would be like stepping into the middle of a war between Alien v Predator? He couldn't want either to win - and only stands if he thinks he could beat both?

    Whoever wins, we lose.
    Indeed. Eventually the Little Englanders here will wake up to this. I hope.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I think Kasich would beat Hilary, he looks very close to the US centre of political gravity to me. He also appears alot warmer personally, though there is something about HRC that leaves me cold anyway (Might be personal to me ?)

    Going through his views, most of the social ones are traditionally republican - but he looks to be a man of compomise. Both his parents were Democrat, so perhaps that has alot to do with it. Economically he looks to have been superb for Ohio.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    You could argue that Sanders vs Trump vs Bloomberg would be good for democracy in the US.

    Only if you think farces are good for democracy.

    A system that chucks up a geriatric socialist, a real estate speculator turned reality TV star and a wall st billionaire makes Labours system of picking a leader look good!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2016
    I see last nights defence meeting with the ridiculously appointed Thornberry went well..
    I note down thread she will be on R4 soon.. Like to see how her comments to the PLP get questioned.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/labour-mps-spitting-fire-after-trident-showdown-with-thornberry/
  • You could argue that Sanders vs Trump vs Bloomberg would be good for democracy in the US.

    Could you? While there might be a case that if the two parties both go batshit crazy at the same time then it proves that there's a safety valve, that point is lessened by the opening only being available to multi-billionaires. Indeed, the very fact of a Sanders/Trump race would *of itself* be a demonstration of the failure of US democracy whereby someone like Bloomberg (who might be a pretty decent president) felt himself unable to even run for either nomination against two weak fields.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Kasich would beat Hilary, he looks very close to the US centre of political gravity to me. He also appears alot warmer personally, though there is something about HRC that leaves me cold anyway (Might be personal to me ?)

    Going through his views, most of the social ones are traditionally republican - but he looks to be a man of compomise. Both his parents were Democrat, so perhaps that has alot to do with it. Economically he looks to have been superb for Ohio.

    I agree. Kasich does seem a reasonable candidate, and Ohio is the sort of swing state that matters. Appealing to swing voters is a major positive.

    But perhaps a bit too sensible for current electorates.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016

    I see last nights defence meeting with the ridiculously appointed Thornberry went well..
    I note down thread she will be on R4 soon.. Like to see how her comments to the PLP get questioned.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/labour-mps-spitting-fire-after-trident-showdown-with-thornberry/

    'But many were particularly annoyed by Thornberry’s suggestion that the Successor class of submarines were as outmoded as patrolling the skies with Spitfires.'

    Clueless. Too much pork life has affected her brain function.

    Best quote from the comments -

    'Perhaps we could fit the missiles to a fleet of white vans that would constantly patrol the country's motorways - it would be a lot cheaper than submarines. I wonder what Ms Thornberry would make of that.'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood
  • You could argue that Sanders vs Trump vs Bloomberg would be good for democracy in the US.

    Only if they used AV ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood

    I have a pound on Huntsman at 100-1 and +540 on him on Betfair from various lays, reckon he can make a comeback ?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2016
    Kevan Jones unimpressed by Ms Bucket.

    Huff-Puff – At another fractious meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in the Commons, furious MPs heckled Ms Thornberry as she answered their questions on her review of defence policy.

    Former defence minister Kevan Jones MP declared at one point during the heated gathering “you’re an embarrassment”, and left the meeting saying she was “waffly and incoherent.. cringeworthy”.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood

    Kasich seems broadly against abortion, but he wouldn't cause a federal shutdown over it.
    Pro guns, though he did pass a bill limiting assault rifles !
    Anti marijuana though he considers it a "State issue".

    I guess that level of comprmise is TOO MUCH! for most GOP :D ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.
    Bloomberg letting Trump in would be the worst result since Nader let Bush in.
    Or Perot let Clinton in but neither claim was really true, exit polls showed Nader won a few potential Bush supporters and Perot a few Clinton backers. Most polls also show Bloomberg picking up almost equal shares of Republicans and Democrats
  • Good morning, everyone.

    That's no way for Labour MPs to treat Colonel Thornberry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited February 2016
    I want to hear when Ted Cruz is going to make it a right of every five year old "at the disgression of their parents" to carry a machine gun.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Pulpstar said:

    I want to hear when Ted Cruz is going to make it a right of every five year old "at the disgression of their parents" to carry a machine gun.

    How else can they be safe in their schools?
  • HYUFD said:

    Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.
    Bloomberg letting Trump in would be the worst result since Nader let Bush in.
    Or Perot let Clinton in but neither claim was really true, exit polls showed Nader won a few potential Bush supporters and Perot a few Clinton backers. Most polls also show Bloomberg picking up almost equal shares of Republicans and Democrats
    Surely Nader let Bush in without question. He must have drawn support heavily from the most environmentally-conscious mainstream candidate to have run in decades; he received 97488 votes in Florida, which Bush won by just 537 votes; and Florida's electoral votes were more than enough to swing the election nationally.

    I agree that the Perot case is far less clear cut.
  • HYUFD said:

    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood

    I don't think it's quite that quick. Cruz was polling reasonably in SC (though the last polls were pre-Iowa, so there's been movement since), and even if he scores fourth or worse in NH, could still be in the game as long as he takes a decent second in SC. Super Tuesday is potentially strong for him but I agree that a Trump-Kasich result in NH would return Rubio to the also-ran field. We'd probably be down to a two-plus race in that case.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited February 2016
    There's another NH village that usually votes early, isn't there?

    Edit: ah, here we go:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-hampshire-dixville-notch-midnight-vote_us_56b979d2e4b01d80b247a0ed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Japanese 10 year interest rates have just turned negative. If you spend Y10,000 on Japanese government bonds today, you will receive slightly less than Y10,000 over the next 10 years.

    I would point out that the Japanese government's debts are more than 240% of GDP, that nominal GDP has been stagnant for at least a decade, and that the country's working age population is in constant decline.

    Caveat emptor, as the saying goes.
  • Mr. 1000, found that a bit surprising, given interest rates were held at something like 0.1% for years on end.

    What do you think the consequence of the rate change will be?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited February 2016
    I see the charm offensive is on with female Sanders supporters:

    Gloria Steinem:

    Asked why the former secretary of state isn't doing better among young women, Steinem said females typically don’t start taking politics seriously until they get older.

    "When you're young, you're thinking, 'Where are the boys?' The boys are with Bernie," Steinem added.

    Albright:

    “There is a special place in hell for women who don't help other women." (Directed at female Sanders supporters)

    And oh how Hilary laughed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    I make that Trump 9 Kasich 8 Cruz 9 everyone else 3 or fewer. And Sanders 17 Clinton 9 and 1 for this guy http://patch.com/connecticut/westhartford/west-hartford-man-making-run-white-house

    It's almost as big a sample as some of those polls we've been seeing...
  • HYUFD said:

    Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.
    Bloomberg letting Trump in would be the worst result since Nader let Bush in.
    Or Perot let Clinton in but neither claim was really true, exit polls showed Nader won a few potential Bush supporters and Perot a few Clinton backers. Most polls also show Bloomberg picking up almost equal shares of Republicans and Democrats
    Surely Nader let Bush in without question. He must have drawn support heavily from the most environmentally-conscious mainstream candidate to have run in decades; he received 97488 votes in Florida, which Bush won by just 537 votes; and Florida's electoral votes were more than enough to swing the election nationally.

    I agree that the Perot case is far less clear cut.
    Most third party candidates prove to be irrelevant but Nader really is the exception.
    Bloomberg could also make a difference, costing Hillary votes. Could he win against Sanders/Trump? I'd vote for him if I had the option under those circumstances. I don't think he would win against any other Dem/Rep combination.
    A really 'off the wall' question - could either of the main parties draft him ( a former Democrat the Republican before he became Independent) in a brokered convention?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    On Kasich: given that he's being sounding emphatically liberal even when trying to win Republican votes, it does make me wonder if he might not be a more effective centrist President than Clinton, because Congress would feel more awkward at constantly blocking one of their own.

    Not going to happen, though, I guess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood

    I have a pound on Huntsman at 100-1 and +540 on him on Betfair from various lays, reckon he can make a comeback ?
    Not even as Trump's Under Secretary of Commerce
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood

    Kasich seems broadly against abortion, but he wouldn't cause a federal shutdown over it.
    Pro guns, though he did pass a bill limiting assault rifles !
    Anti marijuana though he considers it a "State issue".

    I guess that level of comprmise is TOO MUCH! for most GOP :D ?
    Certainly the present GOP base
  • HYUFD said:

    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood

    He's far too moderate for the Republican base to win outright IMHO.

    Also being endorsed by the New York Times would be like a Tory candidate being endorsed by the Guardian here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    rcs1000 said:

    Japanese 10 year interest rates have just turned negative. If you spend Y10,000 on Japanese government bonds today, you will receive slightly less than Y10,000 over the next 10 years.

    I would point out that the Japanese government's debts are more than 240% of GDP, that nominal GDP has been stagnant for at least a decade, and that the country's working age population is in constant decline.

    Caveat emptor, as the saying goes.

    What do you think of the surge in the cost of default insurance against investment grade bank debt highlighted yesterday? Maybe it was watching the Big Short so recently but it seemed an alarming indicator of a complete lack of confidence in the market to me.

    The Japanese situation is just insane. It may prove to be the most effective Bankers tax yet. You have to hold a significant part of your capital in bonds but rather than give you a return on that capital we will charge you for the job of holding it.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Latest Ladbrokes odds
    New Hampshire (without Trump)
    6/4 Kasich
    6/4 Rubio
    5/1 Bush
    6/1 Cruz
    25/1 Christie
    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.
    Bloomberg letting Trump in would be the worst result since Nader let Bush in.
    Or Perot let Clinton in but neither claim was really true, exit polls showed Nader won a few potential Bush supporters and Perot a few Clinton backers. Most polls also show Bloomberg picking up almost equal shares of Republicans and Democrats
    Surely Nader let Bush in without question. He must have drawn support heavily from the most environmentally-conscious mainstream candidate to have run in decades; he received 97488 votes in Florida, which Bush won by just 537 votes; and Florida's electoral votes were more than enough to swing the election nationally.

    I agree that the Perot case is far less clear cut.
    Probably you can make a case for Florida though Buchanan also cost Bush votes there and the calling if the state for Gore arguably cost Bush votes in the Florida panhandle
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited February 2016

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump wins New Hampshire and Kasich is in second place Rubio is knocked out for all intents and purposes and Trump effectively seals the nomination in South Carolina where Kasich has no chance. Kasich is the Jon Huntsman of 2016 he will get a respectable result in New Hampshire but is too moderate for the national GOP electorate in its present mood

    I don't think it's quite that quick. Cruz was polling reasonably in SC (though the last polls were pre-Iowa, so there's been movement since), and even if he scores fourth or worse in NH, could still be in the game as long as he takes a decent second in SC. Super Tuesday is potentially strong for him but I agree that a Trump-Kasich result in NH would return Rubio to the also-ran field. We'd probably be down to a two-plus race in that case.
    If Trump wins NH and Cruz and Rubio are not in the top 2 Trump will win SC though it becomes a Trump v Cruz race
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    On topic the Republican race reminds me ever more of the Labour leadership campaign. A very strong front runner and all the others desperately seeking to establish themselves as the sane opposition by fighting amongst themselves. So it was Cruz*, then Rubio, now Kasich and all the while the Donald sails serenely on.

    I still think by the time they have worked out who the real challenger is it may well be over.

    * Sane obviously being a relative term.
  • Not sure if this has been mentioned, but was checking Mr. T's Twitter feed, and it seems there have been 'tensions' between Britons and eastern European kids in Crewe. Apparently, attacks by the latter on the former, followed by a cover-up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I make that Trump 9 Kasich 8 Cruz 9 everyone else 3 or fewer. And Sanders 17 Clinton 9 and 1 for this guy http://patch.com/connecticut/westhartford/west-hartford-man-making-run-white-house

    It's almost as big a sample as some of those polls we've been seeing...

    Real votes Nick !
  • There's another NH village that usually votes early, isn't there?

    Edit: ah, here we go:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-hampshire-dixville-notch-midnight-vote_us_56b979d2e4b01d80b247a0ed

    Very early days but if indicative would imply Trump first, but not a runaway first, with Kasich a good second and the rest also rans.

    Rubio doesn't seem anywhere so his odds should slip, ditto for Bush; assuming the markets are sensible.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    You know you're fucked when your opponents are pitying you.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016
    Clueless Thornberry on Radio 4 waffling about the threat to submarines from underwater drones *that haven't been developed*, and might not be for a decade or longer. If at all.

    Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    There's another NH village that usually votes early, isn't there?

    Edit: ah, here we go:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-hampshire-dixville-notch-midnight-vote_us_56b979d2e4b01d80b247a0ed

    Very early days but if indicative would imply Trump first, but not a runaway first, with Kasich a good second and the rest also rans.

    Rubio doesn't seem anywhere so his odds should slip, ditto for Bush; assuming the markets are sensible.
    The markets seem to have a love affair with both Rubio and Bush though
  • Mr. 63, Cameron working hard to get me to vote for someone else.

    Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.

    Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.
  • DavidL said:

    On topic the Republican race reminds me ever more of the Labour leadership campaign. A very strong front runner and all the others desperately seeking to establish themselves as the sane opposition by fighting amongst themselves. So it was Cruz*, then Rubio, now Kasich and all the while the Donald sails serenely on.

    I still think by the time they have worked out who the real challenger is it may well be over.

    * Sane obviously being a relative term.

    You mean you're not a Creationist who wants a rape victim to carry to full term? You do know that God is not only omnipotent but that the capacity to reason is Satanic? When you know all that, you can join the GOP.

  • HYUFD said:

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.

    Bloomberg letting Trump in would be the worst result since Nader let Bush in.
    Or Perot let Clinton in but neither claim was really true, exit polls showed Nader won a few potential Bush supporters and Perot a few Clinton backers. Most polls also show Bloomberg picking up almost equal shares of Republicans and Democrats
    Surely Nader let Bush in without question. He must have drawn support heavily from the most environmentally-conscious mainstream candidate to have run in decades; he received 97488 votes in Florida, which Bush won by just 537 votes; and Florida's electoral votes were more than enough to swing the election nationally.

    I agree that the Perot case is far less clear cut.
    Most third party candidates prove to be irrelevant but Nader really is the exception.
    Bloomberg could also make a difference, costing Hillary votes. Could he win against Sanders/Trump? I'd vote for him if I had the option under those circumstances. I don't think he would win against any other Dem/Rep combination.
    A really 'off the wall' question - could either of the main parties draft him ( a former Democrat the Republican before he became Independent) in a brokered convention?
    I don't see how either party could draft him ahead of everyone else. All the reasons why he's not running for either nomination apply equally well, if not more so, to him being drafted after the primaries.

    If the GOP race somehow ends in a deadlock, with something like Trump 40 Cruz 40 Rubio 5 Kasich 5 Bush 5 the rest 5, then how on earth does the nomination not go to not only neither main candidate but also none of the secondaries? Could 80% of the delegates, pledged to a maverick or an ultra-conservative, accept a Wall St liberal; one who didn't even run?

    He *might* be a better bet on the Dem side, but only in the sense of 1000/1 rather than 10000/1. Firstly, Hilary would have to fall. Secondly, she'd have to do so at a time that doesn't hand the majority of delegates to Sanders. Thirdly, Sanders himself would have to perform poorly enough to justify the convention overlooking him. And then there needs to be good reason to reject every Democrat, including the sitting VP who's positioned himself well as first reserve, in favour of an independent who last ran as a Republican.

    It might be an off-the-wall question but it's worth asking - there is good cold logic to the idea. I don't think it'd affect his overall odds though: he's still a good deal more likely to win as an independent than as a party candidate (and he's not at all likely to win as an independent).
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    You know you're fucked when your opponents are pitying you.

    Cameron's clearly lost the plot.
  • Mr. 30, and who's going to develop them? For what purpose? How would you tell, at long range, a submarine was there?

    Maybe it's a long-term plan. Labour uses underwater (and fictional) drones to excuse having no subs*, and then actual drones to excuse a policy of disbanding the army.

    *Except Labour do want subs. Just without nukes. So even if Thornberry were making a valid point about submarines and drones (she isn't), Labour's policy would still be to have the apparently vulnerable submarines.
  • I have to be honest and say I hadn't hitherto considered the nanny factor in the EU referendum. Just shows how out of touch I am.

    'UKIP MEP claims most Scots want to leave EU - but polls say the opposite

    ...Mr Coburn, who said he would be the leading voice for the ‘out’ movement in Scotland, also launched a scathing attack on the head of the Scottish wing of the main ‘in’ campaign, Britain Stronger in Europe.
    Professor Mona Siddiqui, an expert in Islamic studies at Edinburgh University, was unveiled on Sunday as chair of Scotland Stronger in Europe’s Advisory group.
    Mr Coburn said: “It’s all very well for her and middle class people like that — the EU means they can get more nannies, cheaper nannies, that sort of thing..."'

    http://tinyurl.com/hvnx6lj
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2016

    Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    Cameron's prison reform speech: - "I want prisons to be places of care, not just punishment; where the environment is one conducive to rehabilitation and mending lives."
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Mr. 63, Cameron working hard to get me to vote for someone else.

    Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.

    Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.

    It's extraordinary Mr Dancer, I'm all for rehabilitation of young prisoners, but to soften the punishment side of prison is ridiculous. As for the non disclosure on CVs, I thought those that ticked the box in May were Conservatives not raving loonies.

    I guess this is what happens when you move to the ghastly, non existent, "centre ground". Political bollox which means "I'll say anything I have to in order to win votes".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited February 2016
    Mr. StClare, that does sound more reasonable.

    Edited extra bit: comments on a change.org petition suggest the situation at the Crewe school was horrendous:
    https://www.change.org/p/board-of-governors-for-sir-william-stanier-mr-fraser-should-resign-as-head-of-sir-william-stanier/c

    Not heard a peep about this from the media.

    Edited extra bit 2: And a counterpoint (picture is of a police statement suggesting it was a much smaller incident):
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaZ486pVIAAfHs8.jpg:large
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting development re Bloomberg overnight, who is said to be actively considering a run.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680

    Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?

    I agree - if it was Clinton v Trump v Bloomberg, then I would see that as good news for the Donald.
    Bloomberg letting Trump in would be the worst result since Nader let Bush in.
    Or Perot let Clinton in but neither claim was really true, exit polls showed Nader won a few potential Bush supporters and Perot a few Clinton backers. Most polls also show Bloomberg picking up almost equal shares of Republicans and Democrats
    Surely Nader let Bush in without question. He must have drawn support heavily from the most environmentally-conscious mainstream candidate to have run in decades; he received 97488 votes in Florida, which Bush won by just 537 votes; and Florida's electoral votes were more than enough to swing the election nationally.

    I agree that the Perot case is far less clear cut.
    Probably you can make a case for Florida though Buchanan also cost Bush votes there and the calling if the state for Gore arguably cost Bush votes in the Florida panhandle
    The point wasn't about election timings or Buchanan though; it was about Nader. Absent him and Gore would have won, ceteris paribus.

    Buchanan and Browne also won only 33,899 votes between them; only just over a third the total that Nader won.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    Cameron's prison reform speech: - "I want prisons to be places of care, not just punishment; where the environment is one conducive to rehabilitation and mending lives."
    Yep, they only have to go at weekends.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Imperial War Museum
    #OnThisDay 1945: British submarine Venturer sinks German sub U-864 – the only time a sub has sunk another while both were submerged #WW2
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Caveat emptor, as the saying goes.

    Hmmm yes but people have been calling the collapse of the JGB market since yields were at 2%...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    watford30 said:

    Clueless Thornberry on Radio 4 waffling about the threat to submarines from underwater drones *that haven't been developed*, and might not be for a decade or longer. If at all.

    Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Underwater drones? Seriously?

    I remember Spy Story by Len Deighton about 30 years ago commenting that there were listening posts underwater between Greenland, Iceland and Norway to detect the movement of nuclear submarines and I can believe things might have moved on since but oceans are big and detectability is short range.

    As I understand it the next generation of Trident can hit anywhere from anywhere. That is an even bigger place to look.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    I have to be honest and say I hadn't hitherto considered the nanny factor in the EU referendum. Just shows how out of touch I am.

    'UKIP MEP claims most Scots want to leave EU - but polls say the opposite

    ...Mr Coburn, who said he would be the leading voice for the ‘out’ movement in Scotland, also launched a scathing attack on the head of the Scottish wing of the main ‘in’ campaign, Britain Stronger in Europe.
    Professor Mona Siddiqui, an expert in Islamic studies at Edinburgh University, was unveiled on Sunday as chair of Scotland Stronger in Europe’s Advisory group.
    Mr Coburn said: “It’s all very well for her and middle class people like that — the EU means they can get more nannies, cheaper nannies, that sort of thing..."'

    http://tinyurl.com/hvnx6lj

    As somebody who has spent time with Mr Coburn I recoil at most of the things he says.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    Cameron prison reform speech: - "I want prisons to be places of care, not just punishment; where the environment is one conducive to rehabilitation and mending lives."
    Sounds like a good aspiration to me. We should use prison to turn lives around.

    Sure there are some prisoners who should have the key thrown away and be left at the mercy of other prisoners to deliver adequate pain and suffering, but that isn't an attitude that is acceptable in a civilised society.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Mr. 30, and who's going to develop them? For what purpose? How would you tell, at long range, a submarine was there?

    Maybe it's a long-term plan. Labour uses underwater (and fictional) drones to excuse having no subs*, and then actual drones to excuse a policy of disbanding the army.

    *Except Labour do want subs. Just without nukes. So even if Thornberry were making a valid point about submarines and drones (she isn't), Labour's policy would still be to have the apparently vulnerable submarines.

    She's talking garbage.

    Submarines themselves find it difficult enough to hunt down other submarines, and that's with tens of personnel, huge arrays of detectors, and equipment bays full of power hungry processing kit.

    The fact that Admiral Lord West, who was in last nights PLP meeting, is countering her points behind the scenes whilst the party's Shadow Defence Minister is embarrassing herself in a live interview says as much as you need to know. Red on Red.
  • Miss Plato, another British record. But who holds the record for most naval victories in Switzerland?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited February 2016

    Mr. 63, Cameron working hard to get me to vote for someone else.

    Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.

    Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.

    The reason our prisons are full is because of people like the dozen who got jailed in Keighley, not because of people who get jailed for non-payment of fines or TV licences.
  • Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    Cameron's prison reform speech: - "I want prisons to be places of care, not just punishment; where the environment is one conducive to rehabilitation and mending lives."
    Yep, they only have to go at weekends.
    The quote you provided was incorrect and misleading. The full speech is linked below. Perhaps you should read it more thoroughly before posting on the subject.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2016/02/08/cameron-prison-reform-speech-in-full
  • Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    Cameron's prison reform speech: - "I want prisons to be places of care, not just punishment; where the environment is one conducive to rehabilitation and mending lives."
    That does not refute the point that reform, as a purpose of punishment, is a view held only by graduates and a few of the uneducated devout. Most other people prefer natural to civilised behaviour - they suspect the latter is a trick to rip them off.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Didn't someone note that one of our new subs could zap Buenos Aires without leaving port here?
    DavidL said:

    watford30 said:

    Clueless Thornberry on Radio 4 waffling about the threat to submarines from underwater drones *that haven't been developed*, and might not be for a decade or longer. If at all.

    Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Underwater drones? Seriously?

    I remember Spy Story by Len Deighton about 30 years ago commenting that there were listening posts underwater between Greenland, Iceland and Norway to detect the movement of nuclear submarines and I can believe things might have moved on since but oceans are big and detectability is short range.

    As I understand it the next generation of Trident can hit anywhere from anywhere. That is an even bigger place to look.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. 63, Cameron working hard to get me to vote for someone else.

    Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.

    Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.

    The reason our prisons are full is because of people like the dozen who got jailed in Keighley, not because of people who get jailed for non-payment of fines or TV licences.
    Indeed so. But to take them as a repulsive example they will in large part be released when still capable of further evil. Surely it must be a major part of the regime to force them to address their contemptuous attitude to women in general and children in particular?

    Personally I would make that a condition of their release back into the community but the quid pro quo (and we have had a series of problems with this is the Scottish Prison service) is that the treatment and therapy has to be available.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    That oldie vote

    Proportion of UK population aged 65+ will grow from 18% in 2014 to 25% in 2044 #ageing https://t.co/gppyf3VUVahttps://t.co/9LtHqLQtnO
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    Didn't someone note that one of our new subs could zap Buenos Aires without leaving port here?

    DavidL said:

    watford30 said:

    Clueless Thornberry on Radio 4 waffling about the threat to submarines from underwater drones *that haven't been developed*, and might not be for a decade or longer. If at all.

    Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Underwater drones? Seriously?

    I remember Spy Story by Len Deighton about 30 years ago commenting that there were listening posts underwater between Greenland, Iceland and Norway to detect the movement of nuclear submarines and I can believe things might have moved on since but oceans are big and detectability is short range.

    As I understand it the next generation of Trident can hit anywhere from anywhere. That is an even bigger place to look.
    Yes. She is making herself look silly.
  • watford30 said:

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Quiche, surely?

    I doubt Lady Nugee would recognise a pie if one fell on her head.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. 63, Cameron working hard to get me to vote for someone else.

    Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.

    Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.

    The reason our prisons are full is because of people like the dozen who got jailed in Keighley, not because of people who get jailed for non-payment of fines or TV licences.
    “Prisoners” is a generic term, of course. There are in our prisons some seriously evil people, who need to be kept out of circulation for a long time, if not for ever, and who may well be unreformable. Therer are also some, especially younger, prisoners, who have for whatever reason fallen into evil company and consequently way and are capable of reform. It’s quite instructive to look at the history of penal colonies in Australia. Many of those sent there were very quickly released on “ticket of leave” and carried out their former honest trades to the benefit of all, themselves included.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Quiche :smiley:

    With a nice serviette.

    watford30 said:

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Quiche, surely?

    I doubt Lady Nugee would recognise a pie if one fell on her head.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Didn't someone note that one of our new subs could zap Buenos Aires without leaving port here?

    DavidL said:

    watford30 said:

    Clueless Thornberry on Radio 4 waffling about the threat to submarines from underwater drones *that haven't been developed*, and might not be for a decade or longer. If at all.

    Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Underwater drones? Seriously?

    I remember Spy Story by Len Deighton about 30 years ago commenting that there were listening posts underwater between Greenland, Iceland and Norway to detect the movement of nuclear submarines and I can believe things might have moved on since but oceans are big and detectability is short range.

    As I understand it the next generation of Trident can hit anywhere from anywhere. That is an even bigger place to look.
    Our existing Trident missiles could nuke Buenos Aires sitting off Bournemouth..... The existing Trident range is 7,500 miles. London to BA is 6,899.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    runnymede said:

    Caveat emptor, as the saying goes.

    Hmmm yes but people have been calling the collapse of the JGB market since yields were at 2%...

    The very best case, should you buy 10 year JGBs, is that you get slightly less than your money back.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. 63, Cameron working hard to get me to vote for someone else.

    Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.

    Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.

    The reason our prisons are full is because of people like the dozen who got jailed in Keighley, not because of people who get jailed for non-payment of fines or TV licences.
    “Prisoners” is a generic term, of course. There are in our prisons some seriously evil people, who need to be kept out of circulation for a long time, if not for ever, and who may well be unreformable.
    Many of the worst of those are not in prison at all, but in secure hospitals such as Broadmoor, Rampton and Ashworth.

  • Its all going so terribly well

    Tweet from Labour MP, and member of Commons Defence Ctte Madeleine Moon after last night's PLP meeting:

    Oh dear oh dear omg oh dear oh dear need to go rest in a darkened room
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    DavidL said:

    watford30 said:

    Clueless Thornberry on Radio 4 waffling about the threat to submarines from underwater drones *that haven't been developed*, and might not be for a decade or longer. If at all.

    Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Underwater drones? Seriously?

    I remember Spy Story by Len Deighton about 30 years ago commenting that there were listening posts underwater between Greenland, Iceland and Norway to detect the movement of nuclear submarines and I can believe things might have moved on since but oceans are big and detectability is short range.

    As I understand it the next generation of Trident can hit anywhere from anywhere. That is an even bigger place to look.
    That's the GIUK gap : Greenland, Iceland and UK. And yes, apparently the UK and US put detectors down there. AIUI not just for sound, but also other means, e.g. magnetometers (it is much, much harder to disguise the mass of a submarine than it is to silence it). No idea what's down there now, and how operational it is.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Cameron is now saying that prisons should be places "of care not punishment" and that criminal records need not be entered on CVs. That will go down well with White Van Man, he's sounding more like his mate Clegg everyday.Yesterday Nick Palmer said the PM was making mistakes and "needed some time out".

    Cameron's prison reform speech: - "I want prisons to be places of care, not just punishment; where the environment is one conducive to rehabilitation and mending lives."
    Yep, they only have to go at weekends.
    The quote you provided was incorrect and misleading. The full speech is linked below. Perhaps you should read it more thoroughly before posting on the subject.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2016/02/08/cameron-prison-reform-speech-in-full
    I found the first few paragraphs interesting, then I got to:

    Of course, there is one group I do want out of prison much more quickly, instead of British taxpayers forking out for their bed and breakfast: and that is foreign national offenders.

    Are you really still falling for this nonsense? Several pb tories are seeing the light, you'll get there in the end.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I want to hear when Ted Cruz is going to make it a right of every five year old "at the disgression of their parents" to carry a machine gun.

    How else can they be safe in their schools?
    Kaisch COMPROMISE position is to require them to keep the safety catch engaged but it's really an issue for the States
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited February 2016

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. 63, Cameron working hard to get me to vote for someone else.

    Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.

    Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.

    The reason our prisons are full is because of people like the dozen who got jailed in Keighley, not because of people who get jailed for non-payment of fines or TV licences.
    “Prisoners” is a generic term, of course. There are in our prisons some seriously evil people, who need to be kept out of circulation for a long time, if not for ever, and who may well be unreformable.
    Many of the worst of those are not in prison at all, but in secure hospitals such as Broadmoor, Rampton and Ashworth.

    I would suggest “some”, not “many”. But of course you may have information to which I am not privy.
    Those jailed as a result of the Rochdale, Rotherham and Oxford abuse cases, for example, are, I am sure, in “ordinary”prisons.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    DavidL said:

    watford30 said:

    Clueless Thornberry on Radio 4 waffling about the threat to submarines from underwater drones *that haven't been developed*, and might not be for a decade or longer. If at all.

    Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.

    Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?

    Underwater drones? Seriously?

    I remember Spy Story by Len Deighton about 30 years ago commenting that there were listening posts underwater between Greenland, Iceland and Norway to detect the movement of nuclear submarines and I can believe things might have moved on since but oceans are big and detectability is short range.

    As I understand it the next generation of Trident can hit anywhere from anywhere. That is an even bigger place to look.
    I guess it depends on how small and cheap such drones could be. You could imagine something that works a bit like the immune system, whereby a very small and cheap marker drone (of which you have millions) attaches to the hull of a submarine and then calls in a killer-drone which follows the submarine and destroys it if you tell it to.
This discussion has been closed.