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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Trump fails to win tonight then his bid will effectively be over

As we saw after last week’s Iowa caucuses this stage in the White House race everything is all about expectations. So although Cruz won last week all the attention went on Rubio who did a fair bit better than expected.

Read the full story here

bigjohnowls

1st like Sanders in NH

peter_from_putney

Second .... darn it!

RodCrosby

Maybe, maybe not.

He has the dough, the ego and the votes to plough on. His opponents are mostly pygmies, jostling for 15% of the vote each...

rcs1000

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

Casino_Royale

FourthFifth(?) like Bush/Rubio/Kasich/Christie.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I found it quite funny.

Casino_Royale

I've eased out on Rubio over the day, and backed Cruz a little (but not big stakes - just to cover myself) and haven't bothered with Bush.

I still think - in a divided field - Trump edges it for now. He's less disliked by the base than Bush/Kasich who'd be the only other ones to benefit.

Cruz really does seem an acquired taste.

Casino_Royale

Off topic, WTF is this? Just fired up youtube to listen to some music and the "ad" stream forced this on me, which I assume the Guardian have paid for:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NhRc_Depzw

Why? And how much did it cost them?

It's embarrassing.

tlg86

When will we get results tonight?

asjohnstone

When can we expect the first results?

rcs1000

I think Trump's absolute share is the most important thing. Above 32%, good result. Below, bad result.

HYUFD

True, by contrast if he wins comfortably he will be well placed for the nomination, especially if Kasich beats Cruz and Rubio for second place. Trump would then have big momentum to take to South Carolina which he should win

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

True, by contrast if he wins comfortably he will be well placed for the nomination, especially if Kasich beats Cruz and Rubio for second place. Trump would then have big momentum to take to South Carolina which he should win

Trump strikes me as someone who really shouldn't win - the rubicon for me was very definitely crossed with the "bring back waterboarding and much worse" comment - but it looks like he just may, in a very long, slow and sluggish fight, edge it out.

peter_from_putney

***** BETTING POST *****

Current Google Trends in NH using candidate names:

Trump 27
Kasich 20
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Bush 9
Christie 8
6:48 PM - 9 Feb 2016

Based on the above, Kasich looks good value to win Ladbrokes New Hampshire Primary "without Trump" bet currently on offer at odds of 5/4.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/

DYOR

rcs1000

asjohnstone said:

When can we expect the first results?

Midnight

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

True, by contrast if he wins comfortably he will be well placed for the nomination, especially if Kasich beats Cruz and Rubio for second place. Trump would then have big momentum to take to South Carolina which he should win

He should win Nevada as well

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

Current Google Trends in NH using candidate names:

Trump 27
Kasich 20
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Bush 9
Christie 8
6:48 PM - 9 Feb 2016

Based on the above, Kasich looks good value to win Ladbrokes New Hampshire Primary "without Trump" bet currently on offer at odds of 5/4.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/

DYOR

Bloody hell, using Google Trends as a betting tool !

tlg86

Thanks rcs100 - well past my bedtime unfortunately.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

I think Trump's absolute share is the most important thing. Above 32%, good result. Below, bad result.

I think he can drop below 30% if

Trump 27
Kasich 20
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Bush 9
Christie 8

that is the result, Kasich will find it tough in South Carolina I think, and it'd be a poor result for Rubio and Bush too.

Cruz might be happiest medium term with the above tbh.

Not sure Google trends is the best way to work out the polling mind.....

Pong

DavidL said:

Pong said:

DavidL said:

If Bloomberg wants to run he should be running in the Republican race against the Donald. I don't really see how he gets to buy himself a seat in the big game without putting his head above the parapet and showing that he has broad support. I think there would be serious issues of whether he would be allowed to take part in the debates etc.

As an independent I struggle to see what State he wins. New York is possibly the favourite but Hilary got 70% of the vote the last time she stood there, state wide. His running would undoubtedly distort the race in lots of interesting ways but I really struggle to see how he could possibly think there could be a breakthrough to electoral votes.

I just don't think it will happen.

Are you betting on Bloomberg?

Edit - sorry david, I quoted the wrong post - question meant for @rcs1000

I thought I was going to be accused of talking my book or something! If only.....

lol, no accusations like that from me!

You're one of the most objective and self aware posters on here.

Anyway, I mostly agree with you re; Bloomberg.

The talk about a possible bid certainly buys the guy some additional influence he wouldn't otherwise have - I can see no incentive for him to quash the speculation.

For now.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/697153312223862785

NickPalmer

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

Current Google Trends in NH using candidate names:

Trump 27
Kasich 20
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Bush 9
Christie 8
6:48 PM - 9 Feb 2016

Based on the above, Kasich looks good value to win Ladbrokes New Hampshire Primary "without Trump" bet currently on offer at odds of 5/4.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/

DYOR

Agreed, and not just because of Google trends: he's got the momentum. I'm on.

Pulpstar

Google trends o_O ?!

Are you lot serious - were they any good as an Iowa predictor ?

@NickPalmer I've managed to get a bit longer for on Kasich myself today but I wasn't using Google Trends

AlastairMeeks

I'd be highly surprised if Michael Bloomberg ran. He seems like a man who wants to be president but without the bother of actually running to be president.

TheScreamingEagles

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

AlastairMeeks

@britainelects On the junior doctors' strike:
Support: 66% (-)
Oppose: 22% (+6)
[So long as emergency care is still provided]
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

@britainelects On who is at fault for the dispute:
The Government: 64%
The Junior Doctors: 13%
Neither - equally at fault: 18%
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

I hate to say I told you so but...

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Benteke is still rubbish.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

Current Google Trends in NH using candidate names:

Trump 27
Kasich 20
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Bush 9
Christie 8
6:48 PM - 9 Feb 2016

Based on the above, Kasich looks good value to win Ladbrokes New Hampshire Primary "without Trump" bet currently on offer at odds of 5/4.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/

DYOR

Bloody hell, using Google Trends as a betting tool !

That's really a mug's game.

Casino_Royale

https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/697127893386842112

Moses_

Thanks Ms Cycle. Been out all day so late response.

Saw your post thread before last and thought it very good and very true. I will certainly put it to good use.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Anyone but Trump

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

@britainelects On the junior doctors' strike:
Support: 66% (-)
Oppose: 22% (+6)
[So long as emergency care is still provided]
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

@britainelects On who is at fault for the dispute:
The Government: 64%
The Junior Doctors: 13%
Neither - equally at fault: 18%
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

I hate to say I told you so but...

Changes to go through, Hunt to be reshuffled.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Anyone but Trump

Did you not level up a touch when he was 4.3ish ?

isam

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Benteke is still rubbish.

Biggest value FGS copped

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Anyone but Trump

Did you not level up a touch when he was 4.3ish ?

I did. But I still don't want the fecker to win. He's going to ban me from America.

OldKingCole

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@britainelects On the junior doctors' strike:
Support: 66% (-)
Oppose: 22% (+6)
[So long as emergency care is still provided]
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

@britainelects On who is at fault for the dispute:
The Government: 64%
The Junior Doctors: 13%
Neither - equally at fault: 18%
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

I hate to say I told you so but...

Changes to go through, Hunt to be reshuffled.

That'd be seen as a Government defeat. Won't happen, unless someone "hard" replaces him. Grayling? Pickles?

Moses_

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

N.Korea started up a nuclear reactor and upset a lot of peeps. It's ok though we have it covered apparently. Lady Colonel Nugee says we have lots of spitfires to hold them back.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Anyone but Trump

Did you not level up a touch when he was 4.3ish ?

I did. But I still don't want the fecker to win. He's going to ban me from America.

He might waterboard you (and worse) too.

Serves you right if you vote Remain.

Scott_P

@Otto_English: Twitter has peaked. The experts are right. Nothing will ever top this.
https://t.co/A3hKlaWoK2

Philip_Thompson

Sorry if it's a repeat question but what time should we expect exit polls if there are any and what time should we get the Results?

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

True, by contrast if he wins comfortably he will be well placed for the nomination, especially if Kasich beats Cruz and Rubio for second place. Trump would then have big momentum to take to South Carolina which he should win

Trump strikes me as someone who really shouldn't win - the rubicon for me was very definitely crossed with the "bring back waterboarding and much worse" comment - but it looks like he just may, in a very long, slow and sluggish fight, edge it out.

He is what the base is looking for

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

True, by contrast if he wins comfortably he will be well placed for the nomination, especially if Kasich beats Cruz and Rubio for second place. Trump would then have big momentum to take to South Carolina which he should win

He should win Nevada as well

If he wins NH and SC certainly

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Anyone but Trump

Did you not level up a touch when he was 4.3ish ?

I did. But I still don't want the fecker to win. He's going to ban me from America.

He might waterboard you (and worse) too.

Serves you right if you vote Remain.

I suppose he could lock me in a room full of Kippers and Nats.

Anorak

Why is The Donald back-to-front in the article? A sign of the polling direction, perhaps?

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

I don't understand the hostility he rouses in some people. He's a passionate young man with a strong belief in his cause.

Alistair

AlastairMeeks said:

@britainelects On the junior doctors' strike:
Support: 66% (-)
Oppose: 22% (+6)
[So long as emergency care is still provided]
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

@britainelects On who is at fault for the dispute:
The Government: 64%
The Junior Doctors: 13%
Neither - equally at fault: 18%
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

I hate to say I told you so but...

No, this was the strike that was going to destroy doctors and raise Hunt to sainthood.

Alistair

I don't get why Rubio is so much shorter on Betfair than predictit

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Anyone but Trump

Did you not level up a touch when he was 4.3ish ?

I did. But I still don't want the fecker to win. He's going to ban me from America.

He might waterboard you (and worse) too.

Serves you right if you vote Remain.

I suppose he could lock me in a room full of Kippers and Nats.

Lolz. A fate worse than death for you?

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

I don't understand the hostility he rouses in some people. He's a passionate young man with a strong belief in his cause.

He winds me up no end. His cause his not just nor noble.

There's real injustice in the world, he should focus on that.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

I don't understand the hostility he rouses in some people. He's a passionate young man with a strong belief in his cause.

He winds me up no end. His cause his not just nor noble.

There's real injustice in the world, he should focus on that.

I think Sean Fear summed him up best: a monkey masturbating furiously in the centre of his cage in the zoo, desperate for attention.

tlg86

Trump on Sky News

peter_from_putney

Nate Silver's take on how Kasich might fare post New Hampshire, depending on his share of the vote there today:

"My guess is that there’s a difference between Kasich doing pretty well and doing really well. If Kasich replicates Jon Huntsman’s 17 percent of the vote from four years ago, he might be a good story for a few days but not have much impact beyond that. If he gets to 20 percent or more of the vote, however, finishing well ahead of the other “establishment lane” candidates and even threatening to win here, that’s a different story."

Philip_Thompson

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@britainelects On the junior doctors' strike:
Support: 66% (-)
Oppose: 22% (+6)
[So long as emergency care is still provided]
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

@britainelects On who is at fault for the dispute:
The Government: 64%
The Junior Doctors: 13%
Neither - equally at fault: 18%
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

I hate to say I told you so but...

Changes to go through, Hunt to be reshuffled.

That'd be seen as a Government defeat. Won't happen, unless someone "hard" replaces him. Grayling? Pickles?

So long as the changes go through I'd take that as a win. Similar to Gove being reshuffled from Education but his reforms going ahead.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Could be a Kasich surge in the works. *Fingers crossed*

Anyone but Trump

Did you not level up a touch when he was 4.3ish ?

I did. But I still don't want the fecker to win. He's going to ban me from America.

He might waterboard you (and worse) too.

Serves you right if you vote Remain.

I suppose he could lock me in a room full of Kippers and Nats.

Lolz. A fate worse than death for you?

I'd troll them for a few hours about how much I hate narrow little nationalists like them, then get bored

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

I don't understand the hostility he rouses in some people. He's a passionate young man with a strong belief in his cause.

Because he's a narcissist. Privileged people who complain about how hard done by they are will always arouse strong feelings.

stodge

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've been asleep for the last few hours, have I missed much?

Let's see - the stock markets teeter on a precipice of oblivion threatening to drag the world financial system down into the very maw of chaos itself.

West Ham lead Liverpool in downtown Newham

I said hello to Nick Clegg at Waterloo Station - he was meeting a couple of old friends and didn't seem to have a care in the world.

Alistair

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/697058218275528706

I might lay him more

Pulpstar

Looking at SCOTUS, if Rubio or Cruz get in then liberals best start praying for Breyer and Ginsburg's health !

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

I'd be highly surprised if Michael Bloomberg ran. He seems like a man who wants to be president but without the bother of actually running to be president.

Yup, if the people of America were to ask nicely, he may graciously ascend.

This democracy stuff is overrated.

Casino_Royale

I'm calling trough Trump.

Speedy

What I'm expecting is that democrat voters will screw the result by voting for Kasich instead of Sanders.
Result, Trump and Sanders lose N.H.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

I don't understand the hostility he rouses in some people. He's a passionate young man with a strong belief in his cause.

He winds me up no end. His cause his not just nor noble.

There's real injustice in the world, he should focus on that.

I think Sean Fear summed him up best: a monkey masturbating furiously in the centre of his cage in the zoo, desperate for attention.

He is in a country that lets non whites attend Oxford University, a country that gives him equality, fairness and opportunities that many would die for, and all he does is moan and bitch about how racist we are.

Mortimer

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

I don't understand the hostility he rouses in some people. He's a passionate young man with a strong belief in his cause.

Hypocrisy is often passionate.

Casino_Royale

I've almost fully sold down my position on Rubio for Next President (covered in case of "accidents" with my 14/1 with Hills from July) and laid him as Republican Nominee.

I don't expect him to win or come second, and for his price to start to drift on Betfair apres NH ski.

Speedy

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/697058218275528706

I might lay him more

Rubio will never be President:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBX0Z1MkDyQ


Even if he gets the republican nomination, he will be laughed at all the way to defeat.

DavidL

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/697058218275528706

I might lay him more

Not great for the guy near the big red button is it?

Mortimer

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@britainelects On the junior doctors' strike:
Support: 66% (-)
Oppose: 22% (+6)
[So long as emergency care is still provided]
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

@britainelects On who is at fault for the dispute:
The Government: 64%
The Junior Doctors: 13%
Neither - equally at fault: 18%
(via Ipsos Mori / 05-07 Feb)

I hate to say I told you so but...

No, this was the strike that was going to destroy doctors and raise Hunt to sainthood.

Very few people will change their votes off the back of a pay dispute.

Especially when the Labour Party is in its current state.

Pulpstar

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

bigjohnowls

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/697058218275528706

I might lay him more

Rubio will never be President:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBX0Z1MkDyQ


Even if he gets the republican nomination, he will be laughed at all the way to defeat.

MICIPM (Marco Is Crap Isn;t President Material

Wanderer

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

Cruz seems the dodgiest to me on the buy-a-used-car basis.

Speedy

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

Because he has declared his opposition to movies, music and popular culture in general?

Casino_Royale

@Speedy - I'm waiting for Rubio to say that Donald Trump has acted in a reckless and provocative manner and call for him to put aside the rhetoric, and get around the negotiating table, to stop this happening again.

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I found it quite funny.

Back to school for Taki - Colleges do not award Rhodes Scholarships

Mortimer

Casino_Royale said:

@Speedy - I'm waiting for Rubio to say that Donald Trump has acted in a reckless and provocative manner and call for him to put aside the rhetoric, and get around the negotiating table, to stop this happening again.

It is indeed time to get around the negotiating table. The government have acted in a reckless and provocative manner. This must not happen again.

tyson

Jeez Louise....I cannot believe it is 8 years ago when Hilary snatched NH from that upstart Obama, and, my god 12 years ago when Howard Dean went yelping.

Before a blink of an eye I'm going to be dribbling, sat in a care home in Abingdon, wearing pads and talking shyte.

tlg86

Speedy said:

What I'm expecting is that democrat voters will screw the result by voting for Kasich instead of Sanders.
Result, Trump and Sanders lose N.H.

Will it be visible in the turnout for each vote? How valid is it to compare the votes cast today with those cast four years ago?

Pulpstar

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

Because he has declared his opposition to movies, music and popular culture in general?

He is this guy's puppet:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Braman

At least we know Trump is self funding and Cruz/Hilary are in the pocket of Golden Sacks.

How many people know about Norman Braman or his motives !

Wanderer

Pulpstar said:

Looking at SCOTUS, if Rubio or Cruz get in then liberals best start praying for Breyer and Ginsburg's health !

That's hopeless, I think. They are not both going to see the sun rise in 2024. From the liberal point of view the Democrats simply have to win.

Indeed, the next President could end up appointing three or four justices.

Mortimer

tyson said:

Jeez Louise....I cannot believe it is 8 years ago when Hilary snatched NH from that upstart Obama, and, my god 12 years ago when Howard Dean went yelping.

Before a blink of an eye I'm going to be dribbling, sat in a care home in Abingdon, wearing pads and talking shyte.

Amazing isn't it.

NH 08 was my first political bet; and a massive loser. Went for Obama at dreadful odds at about 8pm. And then went to the college Bar and thence to Bed, to sleep the sleep of the righteous. Only to wake to the today programme announcing Hilary's victory!

Pulpstar

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at SCOTUS, if Rubio or Cruz get in then liberals best start praying for Breyer and Ginsburg's health !

That's hopeless, I think. They are not both going to see the sun rise in 2024. From the liberal point of view the Democrats simply have to win.

Indeed, the next President could end up appointing three or four justices.

OTOH Scalia and Kennedy are both 79 too...

Speedy

tlg86 said:

Speedy said:

What I'm expecting is that democrat voters will screw the result by voting for Kasich instead of Sanders.
Result, Trump and Sanders lose N.H.

Will we be visible in the turnout for each vote? How valid is it to compare the votes cast today with those cast four years ago?

Oh yeah, you would see that in the exit poll with how many independents have voted in each primary.

You see normally one can be a lefty democrat voter but not registered as a democrat, independents can vote both ways in primaries.

tyson

Trump is really entertaining. He's funny...I mean he is genuinely funny. The most entertaining politician of my lifetime- and we've had some corkers, Alan Clarke and George Gallaway spring to mind.

Rubio comes across as the child of a Stepford wife....a bit before your time young Pulps, but scary nevertheless.

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

tlg86

Speedy said:

tlg86 said:

Speedy said:

What I'm expecting is that democrat voters will screw the result by voting for Kasich instead of Sanders.
Result, Trump and Sanders lose N.H.

Will we be visible in the turnout for each vote? How valid is it to compare the votes cast today with those cast four years ago?

Oh yeah, you would see that in the exit poll with how many independents have voted in each primary.

I see, thanks.

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

You've said this several times before.

Why? You think he'll nuke Iran?

Mortimer

tyson said:

Trump is really entertaining. He's funny...I mean he is genuinely funny. The most entertaining politician of my lifetime- and we've had some corkers, Alan Clarke and George Gallaway spring to mind.

Rubio comes across as the child of a Stepford wife....a bit before your time young Pulps, but scary nevertheless.

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

Reading AC's diaries again at the moment - he makes a fantastic point that at the beginning of a term of govt, ministerial organisation, rather than communication/messaging, is more important. I'm guessing that is why Hunt and Gove were in their positions in the beginning of terms.

Speedy

tyson said:

Trump is really entertaining. He's funny...I mean he is genuinely funny. The most entertaining politician of my lifetime- and we've had some corkers, Alan Clarke and George Gallaway spring to mind.

Rubio comes across as the child of a Stepford wife....a bit before your time young Pulps, but scary nevertheless.

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB259lgEorA

Trump called Ted Cruz a pussy today.
So it validates some of your thoughts.

watford30

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@FraserNelson: Taki: I'll offer Oriel College a six-figure donation - but ONLY if they withdraw Ntokozo Qwabe's Rhodes scholarship: https://t.co/3UXlzeBX5l

So we should withdraw academic funding from those who say things we don't like. I think Fraser Nelson is behaving as badly as Ntokozo Qwabe.

I agree. Qwabe is a muppet who could benefit from a course in critical thinking but that is just boorish.

I don't understand the hostility he rouses in some people. He's a passionate young man with a strong belief in his cause.

He winds me up no end. His cause his not just nor noble.

There's real injustice in the world, he should focus on that.

I think Sean Fear summed him up best: a monkey masturbating furiously in the centre of his cage in the zoo, desperate for attention.

He is in a country that lets non whites attend Oxford University, a country that gives him equality, fairness and opportunities that many would die for, and all he does is moan and bitch about how racist we are.

Withdraw his scholarship, and give it to a more deserving South African. Someone who will use it to do good for others, rather than a whining narcissist.

Wanderer

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at SCOTUS, if Rubio or Cruz get in then liberals best start praying for Breyer and Ginsburg's health !

That's hopeless, I think. They are not both going to see the sun rise in 2024. From the liberal point of view the Democrats simply have to win.

Indeed, the next President could end up appointing three or four justices.

OTOH Scalia and Kennedy are both 79 too...

Yes, but as Kennedy swings both ways you are really looking at 1.5 conservatives and 2.5 liberals on the glide path.

Speedy

Blasted, CNN exit poll is only 45 minutes from now.
But voting wont end for another 2 hours at least.

DavidL

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at SCOTUS, if Rubio or Cruz get in then liberals best start praying for Breyer and Ginsburg's health !

That's hopeless, I think. They are not both going to see the sun rise in 2024. From the liberal point of view the Democrats simply have to win.

Indeed, the next President could end up appointing three or four justices.

OTOH Scalia and Kennedy are both 79 too...

Yes, but as Kennedy swings both ways you are really looking at 1.5 conservatives and 2.5 liberals on the glide path.

Some of these Justices should think seriously about retiring before Obama becomes even more ineffectual (we will notice when he has actually left office won't we?)

Wanderer

Casino_Royale said:

I'm calling trough Trump.

I thought he showed a version of himself in the last debate that would have Hillary in serious trouble. He can do reasonable very well when he wants to. Mind you "who is he really?" could be a dangerous question for him.

Wanderer

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at SCOTUS, if Rubio or Cruz get in then liberals best start praying for Breyer and Ginsburg's health !

That's hopeless, I think. They are not both going to see the sun rise in 2024. From the liberal point of view the Democrats simply have to win.

Indeed, the next President could end up appointing three or four justices.

OTOH Scalia and Kennedy are both 79 too...

Yes, but as Kennedy swings both ways you are really looking at 1.5 conservatives and 2.5 liberals on the glide path.

Some of these Justices should think seriously about retiring before Obama becomes even more ineffectual (we will notice when he has actually left office won't we?)

As I understand it people have pleaded with Ginsburg about this but she won't have it.

Philip_Thompson

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at SCOTUS, if Rubio or Cruz get in then liberals best start praying for Breyer and Ginsburg's health !

That's hopeless, I think. They are not both going to see the sun rise in 2024. From the liberal point of view the Democrats simply have to win.

Indeed, the next President could end up appointing three or four justices.

OTOH Scalia and Kennedy are both 79 too...

Yes, but as Kennedy swings both ways you are really looking at 1.5 conservatives and 2.5 liberals on the glide path.

Some of these Justices should think seriously about retiring before Obama becomes even more ineffectual (we will notice when he has actually left office won't we?)

Would Obama be able to get a confirmation through the Senate in time though? The GOP could stall until after the election and if they win then just continue stalling until it is too late.

Pulpstar

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm calling trough Trump.

I thought he showed a version of himself in the last debate that would have Hillary in serious trouble. He can do reasonable very well when he wants to. Mind you "who is he really?" could be a dangerous question for him.

Oh Everyone knows who Trump is, and you know what you're getting with Cruz. Rubio is the moderate sounding true believer.

tyson

In terms of political characters there is Alan Clarke and then there is the rest.
AC combines the charisma of B Clinton, the sex appeal of Kennedy, the intellect of (E) Powell, the jaw of Ike, the style of Jagger, the sense of humour of Richard Pryor, the joie de vivre of Depardieu..... Everything about AC was fun.

Mortimer said:

tyson said:

Trump is really entertaining. He's funny...I mean he is genuinely funny. The most entertaining politician of my lifetime- and we've had some corkers, Alan Clarke and George Gallaway spring to mind.

Rubio comes across as the child of a Stepford wife....a bit before your time young Pulps, but scary nevertheless.

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

Reading AC's diaries again at the moment - he makes a fantastic point that at the beginning of a term of govt, ministerial organisation, rather than communication/messaging, is more important. I'm guessing that is why Hunt and Gove were in their positions in the beginning of terms.

Pulpstar

Last price matched on Jeb Bush 8.8

I honestly have no words.

DavidL

Speedy said:

tyson said:

Trump is really entertaining. He's funny...I mean he is genuinely funny. The most entertaining politician of my lifetime- and we've had some corkers, Alan Clarke and George Gallaway spring to mind.

Rubio comes across as the child of a Stepford wife....a bit before your time young Pulps, but scary nevertheless.

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB259lgEorA

Trump called Ted Cruz a pussy today.
So it validates some of your thoughts.

This is seriously like something out of a Stephen King novel. Have Americans checked their water supply recently?

williamglenn

Pulpstar said:

Rubio is the only candidate that actually scares me.

Me too. It's inexplicable that people thought he had a chance. The senate committee hearing where he tried to ambush John Kerry and instead looked an absolute fool should have been devastating enough.