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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » William Hill makes it 7/1 that Cameron will step down this
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » William Hill makes it 7/1 that Cameron will step down this year
William Hill say political punters have been backing David Cameron to stand down as Tory leader either this year or next, in anticipation of either a defeat or only narrow win in the EU Referendum, which has to take place before the end of 2017.
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He can take cover on the fact that no PM has resigned because of a referendum result, and he can use the excuse of the 2 year Brexit negotiation period to stay during those 2 years.
Of course he can surprise everyone by staying neutral or going for Leave.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3444117/Beyonce-s-Super-Bowl-poster-boy-Black-Lives-Matters-agitated-paranoid-stabbed-threatened-doing-gunned-cops.html
If we vote to Leave then we need a PM for the rest of the parliament who can successfully lead the withdrawal negotiations. That can't be anyone whose public opinion has been that Leaving would be a disaster.
So unless he changes his tone before the referendum or finds a way to delay starting the two year clock under Article 50 he seems likely to be forced out by his backbenchers.
The Del Boy of lower league football...lovely jubbly...
“We have always found it terribly depressing that people will happily pay £3.70 for an appalling coffee from a takeout place and yet they won’t pay £1.60 or £2.20 on a Sunday for what is in effect a novel’s worth of terrific writing,” Markwell told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Saturday.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/13/independent-staff-culture-people-coffee-newspapers
Obviously people value one over the other. Or rather again they are missing the point entirely about why the Indy failed (and other titles will do to), while the hated Mail is a success.
http://www.jpost.com/US-Elections/Ted-Cruz-campaign-defends-pastor-who-said-God-will-send-hunters-for-Jews-444644
" Kansas evangelical Pastor Mike Bickle, whose endorsement the campaign publicized last month, runs a controversial project called "Israel Mandate." "
" In a sermon in 2011, Bickle said God would give Jews a chance to convert to Christianity and “raise up the hunters” against those who refuse. Bickle called Hitler “the most famous hunter in recent history.” In 2005, Bickle said in a sermon that before Jesus’ coming, “a significant number of Jews will be in work camps, prison camps or death camps.”
Nick Muzin, a senior adviser to the Texas senator’s campaign, said Bickle was referring to biblical passages. "
This is not big news in america, yet.
Though it probably will if Cruz gains altitude in the polls.
Of the precedent, there've only been two UK-wide referendums, and in both the PM was on the winning side, so you've a 'division by zero' problem looking for resignations.
More pertinent might be Salmond's resignation after losing the IndyRef (and that was after starting behind and coming close to winning).
What would the point of staying on be? There are others who could negotiate Leave, and would be more trusted to do so.
Election strategy 1:
Voters who never vote and will never vote will vote for left wing programme.
Election strategy 2:
Voters who felt Miliband programme too Tory-lite so voted Tory will be vote for REAL left wing programme.
Election strategy 3:
Voters who thought Miliband too left wing are Tory scum and need to attend people's PPE course for re-education.
Unlikely? He'd be seen as a fair and magnanimous man.
For years people have gone to teashops and coffee shops, the cost was substantially less, even account for inflation. It would be the equivalent of 50p maybe 60p, I dont know if it is places like Starbucks that are to blame, who have managed to bump up the price, making drinking coffee an experience.
However, I'm not very convinced by this bet. The timescale looks too short too me. At the very earliest, the referendum will be at the end of June, so the bet has only just over 6 months at a maximum to run. If the result is Leave, the immediate effect will be political and economic pandemonium. No one has the faintest idea what kind of new arrangement the UK would or should try to put in place; it's not as though there is a ready-made Leave team with an agreed and coherent plan for an alternative arrangement ready to step in and try to implement it. The government's (and the Conservative Party's) immediate and overriding priorities would therefore have to be (a) to steady the ship, and (b) to begin the debate on what Leave might actually mean. I'd expect Cameron to stay on for a bit for both reasons.
Negotiations to be headed by prominent Leaver with a parliamentary committee to oversee the negotiations - 5 tory, 3 or 4 labour and 1 Libdem - to be appointed by secret ballot of the respective parliamentary parties.
And thus defuse his own immediate problems, ie his tenure of the premiership.
Also if we vote leave the negotiations should have cross party input and support.
On the other hand, he screwed them up by focusing on the referendum when he should have been focusing on getting a good deal. With no referendum in the pipeline, that might not be the case.
Perhaps this is the masterplan and why tory MPs are so reticent at playing their hand.
And the SNP screeching from the side-lines....
No SNP? No UKIP?
But again I return to the competence point: is he *capable* of achieving the deal, given his failure to do so previously? Post a "LEAVE" vote the participants will be more aggressive, not less - that's already been wargamed - and you will need somebody who can handle 28 nations with the gloves off. I can't think of anybody with a track record of doing this.
I hold no brief for Putin but I'm damned if Erdogan's adventurism is going to drag Britain into a war with Russia.
As for UKIP, they haven't exactly got many MPs to choose from.
Fortunately, a lot of Tories have now seen through him - including, I think, yourself.
Alas, people who let them themselves be that dominated by particular bits of their religious visions need sidekicks who can impose a layer of insulation, translation, and a cold shower, on them.
Or it all just looks whicky-whacky-doodah.
Religious or Political Enthusiasm seems to need anchors.
Take as an example the junior doctor dispute. Where is a fair article on the issue of "safety" contrasting the official line with the BMA? Why cannot all "quality" papers produce such articles? Do they not know experts to speak to? Are they incapable of analysing the data? Another example is the whole issue of what the effects of better 7 day working would be on the death rate.... Time after time the BMA denounces it yet where is the analysis and "settled view"? Of course a professional well run Govt communications outfit should have killed off these issues months ago. But it now appears that Osborne also runs that!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/tory-policies/georges-marvellous-meddling
Being Lead on Leaving would be a bit of a poisoned chalice, though; I can imagine shouts from all sides of "you shouldn’t have agreed to" this that or the other!
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17245.htm
However, instead of you and me arguing about the characteristics of the wargame participants, I'll just put this list of the participants here and let people make up their own mind
The coffee is a minor incidental....
NATO articles are explicit in their geographical coverage and the meaning of collective defence, but wide open when it comes to a response.
If Turkey invades Syria it won't be covered by NATO because of:
a. Turkey is the aggressor.
b. Syria is not in Europe.
Basically it is the same situation as to why NATO felt no obligation to assist the USA in invading and occupying Iraq.
So any military assistance to Turkey will only be as part of bilateral agreements, however if Turkey invades Syria it will enter a direct military conflict with Russia, Iran and the Kurds.
Iraq won't be happy either after Turkey's attempt to occupy it's northern part a few months ago.
You will have a number of powerful regional actors all allying to actively counter any turkish move, some of them being western allies themselves.
So there will be huge reservations to give any sort of aid to Turkey, which isn't the most trustworthy ally anyway with their support for all kinds of islamic terrorist movements, and Erdogan's reputation is pretty bad in the west.
In excess of 70% of the current EU legislation would no longer apply to us even if we joined the EEA. We would actually get what we always wanted and have never had which was a free market trading relationship.
By not making it clear that the preference - one shared by you, me, Sean_F and a number of other people - is for EEA, then you run the risk that these people will choose, reluctantly and without enthusiasm, the EU over the unknown.
A free trade deal seems easy, the rest will be very difficult to achieve.
First move the europeans will dream that their capital will become the new financial capital of the world and will try to break scotland off, and moaning that their democratic mandate is superior to the democratic mandate of Britain basically they play Britain like they played Greece, which is a mistake as Britain is not Greece as they find out later in the video.
The most absurd part is Ireland threatening war on Britain, they really look like they are in the most desperate position in case of Brexit and Lamont squeezes them.
Scotland is Britain's weak spot and Ireland the EU's weak spot.
Trump 35
Cruz 16
Rubio 13
Bush 13
Kasich 9
Carson 5
SC Presidential Primary Survey
Conducted 2/11-2/12
1200+ Respondents
I have never seen them commissioning a poll before.
It also is very heavy on pensioners, they have them as a majority when in fact in the 2012 primary they where only 27%, their poll is not demographically weighted, though it only affects the Bush-Rubio numbers.
“My campaign was intended to offer the gubernatorial experience, with the track record of a true conservative, experienced in national security, to unite the party.” Gilmore said, “My goal was to focus on the importance of this election as a real turning point, and to emphasize the dangers of continuing on a road that will further undermine America’s economy and weaken our national security.”
“Nonetheless, I will continue to express my concerns about the dangers of electing someone who has pledged to continue Obama’s disastrous policies,” Gilmore said. “And, I will continue to do everything I can to ensure that our next president is a free-enterprise Republican who will restore our nation to greatness and keep our citizens safe.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2583169/
What I was making clear to Edmund is his claim that EEA membership was just a rebranding of EU membership is farcically wrong.
Saudi aircraft have turned up at a Turkish airbase. If the numbers are correct, its a notable sum of some very powerful kit designed to play in contested airspace.
Perhaps more notable is the Turkish shelling of YPG positions near Aleppo today. This has been fully expected, the Russians put up near half their fighting jet air power in-country up on the Northern Syria border as a deterrent today (there is probably some kind of contribution from Assads' airforce in there) . That, by the way, is about 20 aircraft. The Turks playing a bit of an asymmetric game. What is Russia going to do, bomb Turkish artillery sitting in Turkey? Tricky.
In the unlikely event of a proper punch up between Turkey & Russia, Turkey has a number of advantages that many seem to have missed. It wouldn't be a forgone conclusion. Not least Russia couldn't ultimately halt any concerted large formation incursion by Turkish forces into Syria. Nor could the 30k or of Assad's army left, and the various militias which now outstrip his regular army.
Have the Turks and Saudis the cojones? Possibly more than probably