That's five S.C post debate polls all showing the same picture, there is no way Cruz is leading nationally like in the NBC/WSJ poll and losing both S.C and Nevada by 18 and 26 points with everyone.
Think Montgomery could be candle in wind for Eurosceptics if Osborne wins leadership. How can they support someone that got a bad deal to win a referendum by threatening end of career for ministers supporting Leave??
That's five S.C post debate polls all showing the same picture, there is no way Cruz is leading nationally like in the NBC/WSJ poll and losing both S.C and Nevada by 18 and 26 points with everyone.
Cruz is second to Trump in that SC poll though and he wins most GOP voters second preference in polls which have asked. On Super Tuesday Cruz likely wins Texas and Arkansas and maybe Oklahoma and a few other Southern and MidWestern states too, as more candidates drop out he will get closer to Trump. Once Rubio drops out after losing Florida on March 15th it will be Trump v Cruz head to head until at least the end of April and probably into May
When watched without sound it's like one of those charity adverts where people are diagnosed with cancer while the presenter resembles an agitated Albert Steptoe.
When watched without sound it's like one of those charity adverts where people are diagnosed with cancer with the presenter looking like an agitated Albert Steptoe.
Makes a positive change from Tories banging on about Yerp.
George Osborne's ratings as Chancellor have turned negative amid a sharp fall in confidence in the economy, it was revealed today.
For the first time since the economic recovery began in spring 2013, more people are dissatisfied with his performance than satisfied, research by Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard has found.
That's five S.C post debate polls all showing the same picture, there is no way Cruz is leading nationally like in the NBC/WSJ poll and losing both S.C and Nevada by 18 and 26 points with everyone.
Cruz is second to Trump in that SC poll though and he wins most GOP voters second preference in polls which have asked. On Super Tuesday Cruz likely wins Texas and Arkansas and maybe Oklahoma and a few other Southern and MidWestern states too, as more candidates drop out he will get closer to Trump. Once Rubio drops out after losing Florida on March 15th it will be Trump v Cruz head to head until at least the end of April and probably into May
When watched without sound it's like one of those charity adverts where people are diagnosed with cancer with the presenter looking like an agitated Albert Steptoe.
Makes a positive change from Tories banging on about Yerp.
4/1 on Trump for large amounts sounds reasonable, although as @AlastairMeeks says on the last thread, he is tap dancing on a high wire and could fall spectacularly at any moment!
4/1 on Trump for large amounts sounds reasonable, although as @AlastairMeeks says on the last thread, he is tap dancing on a high wire and could fall spectacularly at any moment!
I'm going to be so pissed off if he doesn't get the nomination now, after finally backing him in the last few weeks.
I don't actually do a lot of this betting malarkey so I am quite chuffed to be on Trump at 9/2 when the market has moved to 7/2. Little things and all that...
The BBC Trust has said the corporation must not commission opinion polls during the EU Referendum campaign and treat those commissioned by others with caution.
The editorial guidelines published today follow a series of misleading opinion polls in the run-up to the UK general election last May which exagerrated support for Labour. The opinion polls may even have influenced the final result by suggesting a hung parliament was likely, with a Labour minority government possibly relying on support from the Scottish Nationalist Party.
The guidelines state: "The BBC will not commission voting intention polls regarding the referendum question during the Referendum Period."
They also state that the BBC must not lead a news bulletin on the results of a voting intention poll "unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll’s findings is necessary to make sense of it".
The guidelines warn that the BBC must not "rely on the interpretation given to a poll’s results by the organisation or publication which commissioned it, but to come to our own view by looking at the questions, the results and the trend".
The also state that poll results which "defy trends without convincing explanation" should be treated with "particular scepticism and caution".
George Osborne's ratings as Chancellor have turned negative amid a sharp fall in confidence in the economy, it was revealed today.
For the first time since the economic recovery began in spring 2013, more people are dissatisfied with his performance than satisfied, research by Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard has found.
I don't actually do a lot of this betting malarkey so I am quite chuffed to be on Trump at 9/2 when the market has moved to 7/2. Little things and all that...
I don't actually do a lot of this betting malarkey so I am quite chuffed to be on Trump at 9/2 when the market has moved to 7/2. Little things and all that...
Boris should know better than to accept a cast iron pledge from Dave:
Boris Johnson will say we should REMAIN in the EU but only after continuing negotiations to improve the terms (with him as leader doing the negotiations)
The BBC Trust has said the corporation must not commission opinion polls during the EU Referendum campaign and treat those commissioned by others with caution.
The editorial guidelines published today follow a series of misleading opinion polls in the run-up to the UK general election last May which exagerrated support for Labour. The opinion polls may even have influenced the final result by suggesting a hung parliament was likely, with a Labour minority government possibly relying on support from the Scottish Nationalist Party.
The guidelines state: "The BBC will not commission voting intention polls regarding the referendum question during the Referendum Period."
They also state that the BBC must not lead a news bulletin on the results of a voting intention poll "unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll’s findings is necessary to make sense of it".
The guidelines warn that the BBC must not "rely on the interpretation given to a poll’s results by the organisation or publication which commissioned it, but to come to our own view by looking at the questions, the results and the trend".
The also state that poll results which "defy trends without convincing explanation" should be treated with "particular scepticism and caution".
4/1 on Trump for large amounts sounds reasonable, although as @AlastairMeeks says on the last thread, he is tap dancing on a high wire and could fall spectacularly at any moment!
I'm going to be so pissed off if he doesn't get the nomination now, after finally backing him in the last few weeks.
Ha! You were quite funny for a week or two as it slowly dawned on you that Trump was actually a serious contender.
But it's too easy to laugh at others, I've only got beer money on the US election markets so far, green on all but Hilary.
The BBC Trust has said the corporation must not commission opinion polls during the EU Referendum campaign and treat those commissioned by others with caution.
The editorial guidelines published today follow a series of misleading opinion polls in the run-up to the UK general election last May which exagerrated support for Labour. The opinion polls may even have influenced the final result by suggesting a hung parliament was likely, with a Labour minority government possibly relying on support from the Scottish Nationalist Party.
The guidelines state: "The BBC will not commission voting intention polls regarding the referendum question during the Referendum Period."
They also state that the BBC must not lead a news bulletin on the results of a voting intention poll "unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll’s findings is necessary to make sense of it".
The guidelines warn that the BBC must not "rely on the interpretation given to a poll’s results by the organisation or publication which commissioned it, but to come to our own view by looking at the questions, the results and the trend".
The also state that poll results which "defy trends without convincing explanation" should be treated with "particular scepticism and caution".
Against that though, arguably the duty imposed could fall dramatically, as could the tax take generally, as we won't have several billions a year of contributions to pay to the EU (assuming we don't go down the EEA route and operate as a standalone nation like Australia or Japan).
George Osborne's ratings as Chancellor have turned negative amid a sharp fall in confidence in the economy, it was revealed today.
For the first time since the economic recovery began in spring 2013, more people are dissatisfied with his performance than satisfied, research by Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard has found.
New national poll taken concurrently with the surprising NBC one which showed Cruz overtaking Trump. This one shows nothing much changing: Trump 35, Cruz 18, Rubio 12, Kasich 11, everyone else nowhere.
Cameron now getting more dissatisfied ratings than either Corbyn or Farage, I see. What is the last box (showing Big Ben) a measurement of - Parliament in general?
I caught a glimpse of Farron on Russell Howard's Good News show last night (a repeat from last year i think) and he came across very well and quite likeable - normal even (rare for a Lib Dem, particularly a leftie one). I didn't realise quite how northern (like me) he is, it doesn't seem to come across in the usual political interviews. Then again, you very rarely see Farron anyway - The Invisible Leader!
Boris should know better than to accept a cast iron pledge from Dave:
Boris Johnson will say we should REMAIN in the EU but only after continuing negotiations to improve the terms (with him as leader doing the negotiations)
That's not on the ballot paper though, unfortunately!
Against that though, arguably the duty imposed could fall dramatically, as could the tax take generally, as we won't have several billions a year of contributions to pay to the EU (assuming we don't go down the EEA route and operate as a standalone nation like Australia or Japan).
No country is truly independent from a trade perspective. Any country that signs deals with the US usually opens themselves up to allowing arbitration from US based ISDS tribunals for example.
To give the example of the TPP, this means they are obliged by treaty to keep their copyright and other intellectual property law in lock-step with the US. The ISDS provisions of the TPP also mean that the governments of those countries can be prevented from passing laws that appear to discriminate against US companies. (So, the ISDS provisions of NAFTA prevented the Quebec government from passing certain restrictions on GM foods for example.)
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
And in the Telegraph there is a report that gas prices could soar. All such stories are not worth bothering. Any newspaper article which includes the word "could" in its headline is a scare story and should be ignored.
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
They've hit Full Venkman Mode weeks early. Remain must be crapping themselves....what must their internal polling be showing for heavens sake?
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
That's the No2AV campaign.
Absolutely disgraceful the PM used those scare stories against the greatest voting system known to man.
Tory lead down to 4 (39-35) using the traditional measure; the 39-33 is " based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out."
No explanation of the mysterious Big Ben rating, though.
Satisfaction with Corbyn is slightly up among Labour supporters, but slightly down overall. Certainly no sign of a surge of unhappiness among supporters. Farage has the opposite - slightly better overall, but a sharp dip in supporter satisfaction (which we've seen reflected here a bit, with Kipper posters sounding less than thrilled about his performance lately).
And in the Telegraph there is a report that gas prices could soar. All such stories are not worth bothering. Any newspaper article which includes the word "could" in its headline is a scare story and should be ignored.
Again ludicrous. The only certainty regarding gas prices is that we would no longer be forced to have 5% VAT on household energy if we left. So the only hard number is that we would have the ability to reduce costs if the Government chose to do so.
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
They've hit Full Venkman Mode weeks early. Remain must be crapping themselves....what must their internal polling be showing for heavens sake?
New national poll taken concurrently with the surprising NBC one which showed Cruz overtaking Trump. This one shows nothing much changing: Trump 35, Cruz 18, Rubio 12, Kasich 11, everyone else nowhere.
Cameron now getting more dissatisfied ratings than either Corbyn or Farage, I see. What is the last box (showing Big Ben) a measurement of - Parliament in general?
That poll is still a good result for Cruz and a bad one for Rubio. It would allow Cruz to take a strong second (vis a vis third; maybe also vis a vis first) on Super Tuesday.
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
That's the No2AV campaign.
Absolutely disgraceful the PM used those scare stories against the greatest voting system known to man.
That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?
It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
I'd love to know if Goldman Sachs traders are shorting sterling currently.
There will be traders at Goldman who are long Sterling, and there will be traders who are short Sterling. It's not a monolithic firm with a single view.
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
They've hit Full Venkman Mode weeks early. Remain must be crapping themselves....what must their internal polling be showing for heavens sake?
That really is desperation by REMAIN with no basis in fact at all.
What's it got to do with Remain? It's the AA. You do know the difference, I suppose?
It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
Alternatively it could rise. Or it may stay the same. Who the f8ck knows??
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
That's the No2AV campaign.
Absolutely disgraceful the PM used those scare stories against the greatest voting system known to man.
I think I might have come round to PR.
Soon I'll have you believing in the merits of why Osborne should be Tory leader.
Premature babies will die in hospitals, potholes will go unfulfilled, continental wine will no longer be available, my home could be repossessed, Frenchmen could refuse to take my bookings, the BBC will close, for good, my wife may leave me, my rabbit could develop myxomatosis and I could discover I have a nasty case of syphilis 'down there'.
Isiah predicted the consequences of Brexit, thousands of years ago:-
"Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
"The BBC Trust has said the corporation must not commission opinion polls during the EU Referendum campaign and treat those commissioned by others with caution.
The editorial guidelines published today follow a series of misleading opinion polls in the run-up to the UK general election last May which exagerrated support for Labour."
So you will hear nothing of polls giving Leave a win! Glad they've got those guidelines out the way.
Concentrating on polls is often an excuse for not looking at the feelings and ideas that are likely to motivate people to vote this way or that, or vote or not vote.
If Cameron backs LEAVE tomorrow, it's all over. There will hardly be much need for a vote, and it will be an exhilarating time for the Tory party, its culture, and its base. Foreigners (especially swarthy ones) can consider themselves stood up to, and Daily Mail readers can achieve ecstasy, as Britain continues on its journey to becoming a periphery of hundreds of miles of Romanian-run ex-petrol stations surrounding the Square Mile of Babel, except soon, or so the DM readers hope, with fewer Romanians. Oh, wait a minute? That will happen anyway, you say? And Romanians aren't the issue? Well yes. Who said the DM got it right?
If Cameron backs REMAIN, or faffs about, he and REMAIN are a sitting duck for Boris, who could well be the City of London's front-of-stage man. Faffing about will look really bad. Hard to spin it as "going the extra mile" or "keeping on in there". He'll come across like a sniveller. So I'm going short on faffing. Cameron is very likely to back either REMAIN or LEAVE by the time the Sunday papers hit the presses.
Possibilities in the Cameron and Johnson show:
* They link arms as if they were back at the Bullingdon Club, and go "Yeah! We got a great deal for School, for London, and for Britain! It's REMAIN all the way!" UNLIKELY
* Cameron backs REMAIN and JOHNSON backs LEAVE. POSSIBLE. Cameron will be a sitting target. A few fawners will say he's a great man, but the Tory press will do to him what he did to the dead pig.
* They both back LEAVE. MUCH MORE LIKELY THAN PUNDITS ARE PUNDITTING ABOUT. For all the detailed analysis and spewing up of buzzphrases and acronyms in an unpalatable dish of expertise, this possibility is hardly getting punditted about all. And of course the failure of the talks will all be Johnny Foreigner's fault. They may even pick on one called "Manuel".
Comments
But after finding out that so many of us were French last night, the burning question is "which Viz character are you (gents)?"
http://viz.co.uk/games-fun/viz-quiz-which-viz-character-are-you-gents/
I am Roger Mellie, so good night and bollocks!
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-17/trump-dominates-in-bloomberg-poll-before-south-carolina-primary
The NBC/WSJ poll looks even more like an outlier.
That's five S.C post debate polls all showing the same picture, there is no way Cruz is leading nationally like in the NBC/WSJ poll and losing both S.C and Nevada by 18 and 26 points with everyone.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/700080774213562369
https://t.co/6T8QUoBrm1
Marco Rubio 35%
Ted Cruz 2%
Ted Cruz is less than six months older than Marco Rubio ?????????????????????
For the first time since the economic recovery began in spring 2013, more people are dissatisfied with his performance than satisfied, research by Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard has found.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/confidence-in-osborne-drops-as-voters-lose-faith-in-the-economic-recovery-a3183491.html
Remarkably more accurate than a ConHome poll….
Perhaps, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, but there are few other easy wins for the Dems in that environment.
This is our very own 9/11. But worse.
It's as thought Diana was in the towers and the Queen Mum piloted one of the planes. Only worse.
The BBC Trust has said the corporation must not commission opinion polls during the EU Referendum campaign and treat those commissioned by others with caution.
The editorial guidelines published today follow a series of misleading opinion polls in the run-up to the UK general election last May which exagerrated support for Labour. The opinion polls may even have influenced the final result by suggesting a hung parliament was likely, with a Labour minority government possibly relying on support from the Scottish Nationalist Party.
The guidelines state: "The BBC will not commission voting intention polls regarding the referendum question during the Referendum Period."
They also state that the BBC must not lead a news bulletin on the results of a voting intention poll "unless it has prompted a story which itself deserves a headline and reference to the poll’s findings is necessary to make sense of it".
The guidelines warn that the BBC must not "rely on the interpretation given to a poll’s results by the organisation or publication which commissioned it, but to come to our own view by looking at the questions, the results and the trend".
The also state that poll results which "defy trends without convincing explanation" should be treated with "particular scepticism and caution".
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/bbc-banned-leading-news-bulletins-polls-during-eu-referendum-campaign
Almost anyone could be a decent Chancellor when things are going well.
A Chancellor should be judged on how they perform when things are not going well.
Darling did really well in the crisis, especially considering he had to deal with Brown as PM.
You can top up at 11-2 !
https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/videos/1566533100338096/
Boris Johnson will say we should REMAIN in the EU but only after continuing negotiations to improve the terms (with him as leader doing the negotiations)
But it's too easy to laugh at others, I've only got beer money on the US election markets so far, green on all but Hilary.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/17/opinion/who-are-we.html?ref=opinion&_r=1
Stirring stuff. He must be in despair when he looks at polls.
Rubio 2.18
Trump 2.89
Cruz 3.05
Bush 2.36
Kasich 2.66
Implied GOP price: 2.65
Where can I bet on her?
RAF
Yesterday @RoyalAirForce Typhoons intercepted Russian Blackjack aircraft in UK's area of interest. #securingtheskies https://t.co/nJEaKtMkKP
http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/drivers-face-494-brexit-petrol-7387241
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Cameron now getting more dissatisfied ratings than either Corbyn or Farage, I see. What is the last box (showing Big Ben) a measurement of - Parliament in general?
Still think Kent Jungle camps and North Korea are the best.
To give the example of the TPP, this means they are obliged by treaty to keep their copyright and other intellectual property law in lock-step with the US. The ISDS provisions of the TPP also mean that the governments of those countries can be prevented from passing laws that appear to discriminate against US companies. (So, the ISDS provisions of NAFTA prevented the Quebec government from passing certain restrictions on GM foods for example.)
Especially the bit 1:50 onwards.
http://youtu.be/MGqikf5Neas
Absolutely disgraceful the PM used those scare stories against the greatest voting system known to man.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-feb-2016-charts.pdf
Tory lead down to 4 (39-35) using the traditional measure; the 39-33 is " based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out."
No explanation of the mysterious Big Ben rating, though.
Satisfaction with Corbyn is slightly up among Labour supporters, but slightly down overall. Certainly no sign of a surge of unhappiness among supporters. Farage has the opposite - slightly better overall, but a sharp dip in supporter satisfaction (which we've seen reflected here a bit, with Kipper posters sounding less than thrilled about his performance lately).
Odds on Penny Mordaunt please?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35602894
"Head of Russian Orthodox church quizzes penguin on Antarctica visit"
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/18/head-of-russian-orthodox-church-quizzes-penguin-on-antarctica-visit?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews
It is total bollocks, of course. Sterling could fall by as much as 20% as a result of Brexit, although I think that's a very high estimate, but the AA seem to think the petrol price would rise proportionately.
"Thorns will come up in its fortified towers, Nettles and thistles in its fortified cities; It will also be a haunt of jackals And an abode of ostriches. The desert creatures will meet with the wolves, The satyr also will cry to its kind; Yes, the night monster will settle there And will find herself a resting place. The tree snake will make its nest and lay eggs there, And it will hatch and gather them under its protection. Yes, the hawks will be gathered there, Every one with its kind.…"
If Cameron backs LEAVE tomorrow, it's all over. There will hardly be much need for a vote, and it will be an exhilarating time for the Tory party, its culture, and its base. Foreigners (especially swarthy ones) can consider themselves stood up to, and Daily Mail readers can achieve ecstasy, as Britain continues on its journey to becoming a periphery of hundreds of miles of Romanian-run ex-petrol stations surrounding the Square Mile of Babel, except soon, or so the DM readers hope, with fewer Romanians. Oh, wait a minute? That will happen anyway, you say? And Romanians aren't the issue? Well yes. Who said the DM got it right?
If Cameron backs REMAIN, or faffs about, he and REMAIN are a sitting duck for Boris, who could well be the City of London's front-of-stage man. Faffing about will look really bad. Hard to spin it as "going the extra mile" or "keeping on in there". He'll come across like a sniveller. So I'm going short on faffing. Cameron is very likely to back either REMAIN or LEAVE by the time the Sunday papers hit the presses.
Possibilities in the Cameron and Johnson show:
* They link arms as if they were back at the Bullingdon Club, and go "Yeah! We got a great deal for School, for London, and for Britain! It's REMAIN all the way!"
UNLIKELY
* Cameron backs REMAIN and JOHNSON backs LEAVE.
POSSIBLE. Cameron will be a sitting target. A few fawners will say he's a great man, but the Tory press will do to him what he did to the dead pig.
* They both back LEAVE.
MUCH MORE LIKELY THAN PUNDITS ARE PUNDITTING ABOUT. For all the detailed analysis and spewing up of buzzphrases and acronyms in an unpalatable dish of expertise, this possibility is hardly getting punditted about all. And of course the failure of the talks will all be Johnny Foreigner's fault. They may even pick on one called "Manuel".
I'm pleased to be on LEAVE at 2\1.