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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Founder of ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, quits the Tories over
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Founder of ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, quits the Tories over Cameron’s EU stance
The political blogging pioneer and former chief of staff to IDS, Tim Montgomerie, announced overnight that he was quitting the party over Cameron’s stance on the EU. This clearly was a carefully timed announcement designed to have an impact.
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But she is a seriously flawed candidate and maybe that means the Donald will be unleashed on the world. Mercy me.
For all their faults neither Dave nor the Donald have (as far as I know) misremembered a nice helicopter ride as being under enemy fire...
She is in serious legal jeopardy involving felonies. You really don't want the FBI investigating your emails and the Clinton Foundation,
It's hard to find anyone on either side who looks like they're suitable for high office. Kasich? Only cause I don't know anything about him I suspect
I don't think most folks in the UK realize how much potential trouble she is in.
Not to mention the HUGE misjudgment she made in having a home brewed server holding classified information.
If she has poor judgment like that, what does it say about how fit she is to be POTUS?
Montie leaving the Tories says more about Montie than it does about the Tories. He has never gotten over IDS being a failure and David Davis losing. It is personal to him not political.
I don't think the PM quite expected the reaction to the EU deal to be quite as bad as it was, and even today it looks like various other EU members are trying to water it down further still.
They are not influenced by anyone, are beholden to no one, which is what you want in an investigative body.
Obviously they are aware of the political nature of the subject of their digging, and the political effect of their recommendation, which means they will be even more thorough.
@RupertMyers Dan Hodges left Labour because they'd gone extreme. @montie seems to be leaving the Tories because they've gone all centrist.
I think we know the answer to that.
I expect Montie will now be critical of Dave instead of the cheerleader for Dave he is now?
As my now favourite Tory MP put it
https://twitter.com/GutoBebb/status/700091062040338432
"Let's get on with it," the retired Reagan appointee said.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/sandra-day-oconnor-scalia_us_56c5313be4b0c3c55053c6d9?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000016§ion=politics
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03577/180216-MATT-WEB_3577071a.jpg
The PM has a reputation for being on the winning side, which Leave would be if he campaigned for it. He would also find it easier to unite his party after a Leave result than a close Remain, and not have to bother with the charade of a good deal he is going to have to try and sell to his MPs in the next few days.
Not going to happen though, is it?
But it will all be moot if this keeps up:
Quinnipiac National Democratic race: Clinton 44, Sanders 42
Future changes would require a referendum though so that can't happen again this time.
Seems like even the watered down flim-flam is overselling the reality. No one at all believes the legally binding bit now except Messrs Cameron and Nabavi
Seems the the "red card" is only going to ask the Commission to reconsider, so even if you manage to get 16 countries to support you in the 8 week deadline, the Commission can say it has reconsidered and then proceed with their plan anyway - worthless.
This is a LEGAL threat, and what the voters think is utterly irrelevant. This isn't a political issue.
The result of the Referendum is not something that is going to blow over. Either outcome will lead to a sizeable number reflecting on whether they really want to hang around in the party. It's not like there is anywhere else to go at the moment, politically. But I could see quite a few prominent names deciding that their interest in politics has waned to the point where they would rather spend their time breeding a new variety of sweet pea, or searching out a remaining Tasmanian Tiger. Disappearing out of public life in an air of disappointment...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/17/conservative-activist-quits-party-over-david-camerons-stance-on-eu
I wonder when (if) the press will pick up on Charles explosive story from yesterday - hard to imagine a more hostile response from the EU to Brexit - 'leave if you want, but we'll try to break up your state'......
Messrs Hannan and Carswell will certainly have made a note of it.
As has been said on here numerous times, both sides need to lock away their more excitable members for the next six months, every time some of them open their mouths they send votes to their opponents. There's some recent evidence that Farage is starting to get this, but I fear will struggle to keep the Godfrey Blooms in check. Keeping the Europeans quiet will be much more challenging.
Once again, the 'problem' was not so much the policy, but the attitude of those very close to the party leadership who saw it as a useful stick to beat the voluntary party with to demonstrate modernisation to others, rather than trying to sell it to loyal party workers.
You'd never have got Margaret Thatcher doing that.
My reaction: how the heck did his get to the level of Chief of State without realising that's exactly how the Tory Party works & why it has been so successful?
The Conservative Party is the vampire squid of UK politics.
First the Oakshott book, then this attack on Dave. What a coincidence!
If we had an effective LOTO then they would make mincemeat of the shambles in the government. Instead both parties are committing seppukku.
So the "Emergency Brake" now needs to be approved by EUParl before we can use it.
The "Red Card" needs to be approved by 16 member states within 8 weeks, and then is only advisory and can be ignored by the Commission
The "Child Benefit" change only applies to new claimants, and is (unworkably) supposed to pay an amount indexed to the value in the country the child live in.
And whole damn thing is subject to approval, modification, or rejection by EUParl AFTER we get a vote.
.. and none of it is legally binding anyway.
What a disgrace... Chamberlain would have been embarrassed by an agreement this flimsy.
Perhaps this is a symptom -- that on a whole range of issues, the leadership has not attempted to carry the party. (Of course, it could be said Tony Blair was the same once inside Number Ten but look how that turned out.)
I can fully understand why those who voted for IDS and thought that was actually a good place for the party to be are disappointed about all this but when the party actually was in that place it got absolutely hammered because a very small proportion of the UK public agreed with them.
The Conservative party remains willing to be the broad church but if those who are more interested in ideological purity than winning and providing competent government insist on leaving I think the party can cope.
And he knows that, too, I imagine.
Walk away sir. Let's see some of that establishment gumption that we elected you for.
@LordAshcroft
@montie @thetimes respect
I don't recall Mrs Thatcher being in the centre ground of British Politics, but she won rather more elections and rather more convincingly that Dave has. The trick is to move to the centre and keep your wing on board. Thatcher picked up aspirational working class voters and kept the Tory right on board. Blair picked up centrist and LDs voters and (mostly) kept the left onboard. Problem these days is there are other places to go, including, as Blair found, staying at home because you think no one at Westminster represents you.
With the number of pissed off, or at least disenchanted Centre Right voters, Labour don't need to replace Corbyn with anyone that fantastic, they need someone that is reassuring and not a security risk (Jarvis), that won't force Right-wingers to turn out in alarm, and win due to apathy on the right.
Come on Dave, this is what we elected you for. Walk away from the table, get the first plane back to London this morning and tell the Cabinet you're recommending we leave.
Voters generally apply a crude consequences check, which isn't especially fair - has anyone died? Have enemy spies gained vital documents? If apparently not, then oh well.
The problem is this farce is not really selling. People will either vote Remain or Leave on their assessment of where the EU is and where it is going. No one paying even the slightest bit of attention believes that these renegotiations are material to that assessment anymore . No one. Remain supporters from the other parties were frankly embarrassed about it on Peter Allan's program yesterday. They are very keen to move on and make their case for EU membership as it is.
That said, the danger of several defections or submission of vote of no confidence to the '22 is now very, very high.
There's no possible argument that could have been made to get them to buy into gay marriage. It's like trying to convert a catholic priest.
I explained why on the last thread.
I still think it's not inconceivable that if the gagging/threatening of the Cabinet continues past Friday, there will quickly be close to enough letters with the 1922 Chairman to challenge Cameron's leadership. The Parliamentary and the wider party expected the leadership to take their side, but also expected a fair contest. In their view what's happening now isn't fair at all.
Agree 100% about the Opposition of course. Shambles doesn't come close to it.
There is as little appetite for a radical right wing party in this country as there is for Corbyn and his loons to the left. Montie and others may not like that but it is the truth. He might be happier in America. The loon quotient seems higher there.
That's a joke, right?!
In addition it also removes any description of differences within the rulebook for non-Euro states. So its gone from different rules, to different application of the same rules, to the same rules. So the ECB decides how it will be done and the Bank of England will have to follow suit. This is a complete disaster. Cameron will have sold out control of the entire UK finance sector if he signs this deal. And whats worse is that he hasn't even got a full proof non-discrimination protection as it can still happen for "objective reasons". And we have to "facilitate" Eurozone integration without raising more objections.
The French have won hook line and sinker if this goes through.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2714671-FINAL-DRAFT-st00016-en16.html
If he had been in the Foreign Office, Home Office or Defence, and was routinely sending classified stuff off grid, that would be very, very different.
I still don't see how Hilary's reputation comes out of this close to intact, although my experience is in administering mail servers more than running for President!
The question here is what Montie and other dissidents do. Dropping out of politics is an option, as suggested downthread, but politics is a virus that you never quite get rid of once it's in your metabolism. Drifting back in a few years would be just embarrassing. Forming an independent right-wing pressure group - like Migration Watch but without the one-issue obsession - might be an option, which could evolve into a new party or affiliate back to the Tories, depending how things go.
The other interesting trend is the lingering death of most political parties as membership organisations. Corbyn's Labour is the exception that tests the rule, but in the long term membership of parties is becoming increasingly unfashionable, not just in Britain but almost everywhere. The US parties manage without formal membership - maybe that's the future?
The only danger is if somehow the referendum becomes not about "Remain vs Leave" but about "does the 'deal' change anything"?. One can believe that the deal doesn't change anything but still vote remain.
As a long term, committed Outer I'm delighted at what these "negotiations" have proven, but I'm genuinely shocked how poorly Cameron has managed it all, his reputation is irrevocably damaged regardless of the outcome.
Incidentally someone called Penny Mordaunt looks likely to campaign for Out, I'd like to see more of her on tv
Hmm. In two minds about this. I think for Montgomerie (or One True Voice) this is a rare overlap of professional interest (being a journalist mattering more, perhaps, than being a Conservative) and personal conviction. Whilst I think he's been wrong about almost everything, his lack of fondness for the EU is not something manufactured, I'd guess.
That said, Cameron's going in a couple of years. By leaving now, Montgomerie (unless he promptly rejoins) loses the ability to directly influence the outcome of the leadership election, though he'll almost certainly try and do so from his journalist pulpit.
Mr. 63, if Remain wins one suspects you won't be delighted any more.
As an aside, the news coverage (Sky) of French concerns seems utterly one-sided. The news channel referred to the French wanting "no special treatment for the City of London", as if us governing and regulating the flagship of our own bloody economy was some sort of special favour, or as if it were normal, let alone acceptable, for foreign voices to hold sway over our domestic economy.
Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 5,322
February 13
Richard_Tyndall said:
Not sure if you intended it to sound this way but it does sound like you are claiming Sean is on the Left. This is very much not the case. Until Recently Sean was one of the Tory party's staunchest defenders. It appears to be Cameron's policy on the EU that has driven Sean out, just as it did many more of us.
I'm hoping you'll claim montie too before much longer... he's such a bore.
The current charade convinces me that the rest of the EU have no interest in helping the PM out, and that he misjudged the reaction of the press to the fig leaf he was given.
On the lovely Ms Mourdant, she will liven up the campaign no end. A class act, with a sick sense of humour!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvLcYUXBBuc
Look mate, you've misjudged things but you have the chance to change tack and become the greatest Tory PM in history. Recommend Leave due to EU intransigence and doing the right thing for the nation. You'll finish Ukip for good, unite the Eurosceptics and stand down covered in glory.
Worth a try?
I also see there is a potential new addition (still to be negotiated) that EU authorities may be in charge when non-Euro countries bailout banks in future, and could have to be co-ordinated with Eurozone. E.g. if we wanted to bail out a bank but Eurozone countries worry it will knock confidence too much, they coud stop us. What a mess.