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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : February 18th 2016

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : February 18th 2016

Oban North and Lorn (Argyll First defence, was Independent) on Argyll and Bute
Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012):

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2016
    1st?
    Edit: Thanks for your efforts in compiling these every week Harry, and hope your grandmother recovers well from her troubles.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Harry: I hope all is OK with your grandmother
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited February 2016
    Great effort as ever.

    O/T I'm fully expecting Montie to soon throw some more toys out and to henceforth and forthwith utterly resign from his loyal support of Man Utd....
  • Sorry to hear about your grandmother, Harry.

    All the best for a speedy recovery.
  • Latest - long way from deal - talking of it going into Saturday and even Sunday!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    A surprisingly large number of LibDem defences tonight. It'll be interesting to see how many they hold.
  • Sorry Harry.
    My wife had acute glaucoma (I think as opposed to chronic) and it can be very dangerous. It's quite possible to go blind.
  • Latest - long way from deal - talking of it going into Saturday and even Sunday!!!

    Should make tomorrow nights big leave event in the QE 2 centre interesting
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    On the subject of by-elections, Guido claims to have the Labour selection timetable for the upcoming by-election in Sheffield Hillsborough. He's also identified the first runner, young Oliver Coppard who lost to Clegg last May.

    Thurs 18 Feb: Applications open.

    Wed 24 Feb 12noon: Close applications

    Mon 29 Feb: Short-listing interviews.

    Wed 2 Mar: Selection meeting in Sheffield.

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/18/man-who-lost-to-clegg-running-again/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    EU talks

    Mandelson has stepped in to help Cameron. Cameron is in trouble.

    @IsabelHardman
    British officials now briefing that going is tough in talks, ‘Tusk shares the assessment that there are some serious differences’
    8:11 PM - 18 Feb 2016

    Jennifer Rankin
    @JenniferMerode
    No real progress in UK-EU talks - 'serious differences' remain, say sources.
    8:19 PM - 18 Feb 2016

    Andrew Sparrow, 8.20pm
    No major progress has been made in the first session of talks this evening, which means the leaders will go into dinner to talk about the migration crisis. David Cameron and Donald Tusk will then hold a bilateral to plot a way forward, while Tusk himself is expected to hold a press conference at midnight.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    FPT, that's the funny thing about Blair. Most people regard him, rightly, as a wholly despicable creature, who lacks any sense of right or wrong, the Gollum of British politics. But, Cameron and Osborne adore him, as do a key group of swing voters in marginal seats.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    SeanT said:

    fpt for williamglen

    Don't be daft. We love and own our language, from the Royal Shakespeare Company to the Sun's Emma Thompson front page: Shut Yer Cakehole. We are the English, and we speak English - the greatest of our many gifts to a lucky world.

    There may be a slight sense of Wimbledonism, but consider the alternative. French. We could be French and facing the slow, inexorable decline of our language from global supremacy to basic irrelevance. How painful is that?

    Or we could speak Croat, Danish, Quechua, Navajo, or pidgin.

    Good points and the comparison with the French is apt. Having an Academie telling everyone to start spelling 'oignon' as 'ognon' is no way to have a vibrant language.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    "poll showed nearly one in three South Carolina Republican primary voters think gay people shouldn’t be allowed to enter the United States."

    Lordy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited February 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    "poll showed nearly one in three South Carolina Republican primary voters think gay people shouldn’t be allowed to enter the United States."

    Lordy.

    To be fair, has anyone polled how many of them think that people shouldn't be allowed to enter the United States?
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited February 2016
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, that's the funny thing about Blair. Most people regard him, rightly, as a wholly despicable creature, who lacks any sense of right or wrong, the Gollum of British politics. But, Cameron and Osborne adore him, as do a key group of swing voters in marginal seats.

    I think you are getting a bit carried away. If indeed they 'adore' Blair then they do so in the same way Joe Frazier ended up admiring Mohammed Ali. There are only so many times you can get off the canvas and still think your opponent is a pillock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Just so everyone knows, I'm off to look at the VERY LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, on Sunday. For The Times.

    http://www.olpejetaconservancy.org/wildlife/rhinos/northern-white-rhinos/

    There are three left. THREE.
    That's almost too sad for words :(
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Just so everyone knows, I'm flying to Kenya to look at the VERY LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, on Sunday. For The Times.

    http://www.olpejetaconservancy.org/wildlife/rhinos/northern-white-rhinos/

    There are three left. THREE.
    So shouldn't you just leave them alone then?
  • Sean_F said:

    FPT, that's the funny thing about Blair. Most people regard him, rightly, as a wholly despicable creature, who lacks any sense of right or wrong, the Gollum of British politics. But, Cameron and Osborne adore him, as do a key group of swing voters in marginal seats.

    I've said it before, I'll say it again, and suspect I'll say it a thousand times: the Conservative modernisers have learnt the wrong lessons from Blair.

    Different problem, different Project.

    Different times.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sandpit said:

    On the subject of by-elections, Guido claims to have the Labour selection timetable for the upcoming by-election in Sheffield Hillsborough. He's also identified the first runner, young Oliver Coppard who lost to Clegg last May.

    Thurs 18 Feb: Applications open.

    Wed 24 Feb 12noon: Close applications

    Mon 29 Feb: Short-listing interviews.

    Wed 2 Mar: Selection meeting in Sheffield.

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/18/man-who-lost-to-clegg-running-again/

    Shoo in for Coppard I'd have thought - Hallam is not natural Labour territory. He did pretty well there.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    SeanT said:

    fpt for williamglen

    Don't be daft. We love and own our language, from the Royal Shakespeare Company to the Sun's Emma Thompson front page: Shut Yer Cakehole. We are the English, and we speak English - the greatest of our many gifts to a lucky world.

    There may be a slight sense of Wimbledonism, but consider the alternative. French. We could be French and facing the slow, inexorable decline of our language from global supremacy to basic irrelevance. How painful is that?

    Or we could speak Croat, Danish, Quechua, Navajo, or pidgin.

    Good points and the comparison with the French is apt. Having an Academie telling everyone to start spelling 'oignon' as 'ognon' is no way to have a vibrant language.
    French dirigism in action versus the Anglo Saxon free for all of the OED.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    SeanT said:

    fpt for williamglen

    Don't be daft. We love and own our language, from the Royal Shakespeare Company to the Sun's Emma Thompson front page: Shut Yer Cakehole. We are the English, and we speak English - the greatest of our many gifts to a lucky world.

    There may be a slight sense of Wimbledonism, but consider the alternative. French. We could be French and facing the slow, inexorable decline of our language from global supremacy to basic irrelevance. How painful is that?

    Or we could speak Croat, Danish, Quechua, Navajo, or pidgin.

    Good points and the comparison with the French is apt. Having an Academie telling everyone to start spelling 'oignon' as 'ognon' is no way to have a vibrant language.
    French will survive okay. Africa's population is booming and lots of Africans speak French.
  • rcs1000 said:

    A surprisingly large number of LibDem defences tonight. It'll be interesting to see how many they hold.

    Yes and two of them in 2 person wards where they got the 2nd seat and the Tories got the first.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Pulpstar said:

    "poll showed nearly one in three South Carolina Republican primary voters think gay people shouldn’t be allowed to enter the United States."

    Lordy.

    I'm surprised it's so few.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    rcs1000 said:

    A surprisingly large number of LibDem defences tonight. It'll be interesting to see how many they hold.

    Yes and two of them in 2 person wards where they got the 2nd seat and the Tories got the first.
    Ah, that's rather useful context. Thanks. A couple of Tory gains on the cards then!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    FPT:

    Wanderer said:


    I agree with Sean about this. The idea that we have been bending over and taking it for the last 43 years is ignominious and doesn't fit with the way I see my country.

    It may not be the way you want to see your country but then no one likes to think of themselves as having been taken for a ride in that way. Doesn't change the basic truth though.
    Quite possibly we've been taken for a ride. (Our views differ on that but you may be right about it.)

    It's the domestic violence metaphor that I think is not apt. It would suggest that the UK will need to be protected from the rest of Europe in future, that it will need time and counselling before it can deal independently with other nations again, and so on.

    In reality I think both of us have an optimistic view of what the UK could do outside the EU.
  • SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Just so everyone knows, I'm flying to Kenya to look at the VERY LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, on Sunday. For The Times.

    http://www.olpejetaconservancy.org/wildlife/rhinos/northern-white-rhinos/

    There are three left. THREE.
    Is that advisable given your mood swings?
    Your liable to shoot one after reading one of Nabavi's posts.
  • Pulpstar said:

    "poll showed nearly one in three South Carolina Republican primary voters think gay people shouldn’t be allowed to enter the United States."

    Lordy.

    To be fair, has anyone polled how many of them think that people shouldn't be allowed to enter the United States?
    There are plans I believe to build a wall around Donald Trump.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited February 2016
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, that's the funny thing about Blair. Most people regard him, rightly, as a wholly despicable creature, who lacks any sense of right or wrong, the Gollum of British politics. But, Cameron and Osborne adore him, as do a key group of swing voters in marginal seats.

    If I'm honest I still carry a torch for Tony Blair. I don't live in a marginal though so it doesn't matter ;)
  • Pulpstar said:

    "poll showed nearly one in three South Carolina Republican primary voters think gay people shouldn’t be allowed to enter the United States."

    Until they can figure out what the hell's going on?
  • Wanderer said:

    FPT:

    Wanderer said:


    I agree with Sean about this. The idea that we have been bending over and taking it for the last 43 years is ignominious and doesn't fit with the way I see my country.

    It may not be the way you want to see your country but then no one likes to think of themselves as having been taken for a ride in that way. Doesn't change the basic truth though.
    Quite possibly we've been taken for a ride. (Our views differ on that but you may be right about it.)

    It's the domestic violence metaphor that I think is not apt. It would suggest that the UK will need to be protected from the rest of Europe in future, that it will need time and counselling before it can deal independently with other nations again, and so on.

    In reality I think both of us have an optimistic view of what the UK could do outside the EU.
    Plus domestic violence is hardly a flippant subject.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2016
    Off-topic. Trump definitely seems to have weakened by about 3 points in SC in the past few days. Five straight polls showing him on 33% or less, after 10 straight polls having him on 35% or above.

    Neither of his main challengers have benefited though. Even if he drops another 3 points (or more), Trump will still have a blowout win in terms of delegates...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited February 2016
    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Nothing better than a risotto in my book! Seafood preferably if you ask me.

    Thanks for the writeup Harry, and hope your grandma gets well soon.

    @Flightpath_01 I think Richard Tyndall's put down of your Finchley Road reply to me last night was highly apt. I wouldn't want to upstage it.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Harry: I hope your grandmother gets well very soon. Thanks as ever for these articles. I think this is the serious engine-room stuff on the site.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Roger said:

    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........

    What does Priti do next?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Wanderer said:

    Roger said:

    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........

    What does Priti do next?
    Loses.....heavily
  • Roger said:

    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........

    Oh, this is brilliant.

    We could have your head on a spike.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "poll showed nearly one in three South Carolina Republican primary voters think gay people shouldn’t be allowed to enter the United States."

    Lordy.

    I'm surprised it's so few.
    There was a poll a few days back (in SC I think), that showed, alone amongst the GOP field, a majority of Trump's supporters felt it would have been better if the Confederates had won the Civil War...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Wonderful news today that Pakistan became the 2nd country in the world, following in Russian footsteps, for its meteorological agency to advise its citizens to prepare for global cooling, particularly after 2019 into the projected grand solar minimum around 2030, although parts of the world are going to get much colder in the projected upcoming La Nina which is the yin compared to the El Nino yang. Its going to get noticeably colder weatherwise into 2030, if the Pakistani and Russian governments can be so far sighted, then why can't Mr Cameron's on this vital issue?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVjSCGiXjyI

    On another note, scintillating snooker so far at the Welsh Open this week from Ronnie O'Sullivan. Enjoy him while you can.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Currently reading this thread in a Cambridge college having missed supper and raided the vending machine. I can almost taste your risotto from the words you wrote....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    I made myself a curry from scratch two days ago an ate the leftovers with a portion of chips from the local chippy as I had no rice.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    I made myself a curry from scratch two days ago an ate the leftovers with a portion of chips from the local chippy as I had no rice.
    Gah. Please stop.

    This all sounds tons better than an apricot eat natural bar and a packet of ready salted crisps.....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Apparently White Rhino News has got wind of the fact that there's only one SeanT left on the planet! Just one!

    Clearly they need to send observers to pick over the last moments of the species, and so a flight to Camden has been arranged. As they're considerate rhino they'll certainly only be wrecking the non-essential bits of the SeanT environment. That consideration of course being in abeyance if there's even the slightist Rhino need involved.

    (So firstly apologies SeanT - this isn't in any way a dig at you. I'd be incredibly excited and thrilled if I was off to see something so incredibly rare. I think doing so would break my heart too.)
  • Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    I made myself a curry from scratch two days ago an ate the leftovers with a portion of chips from the local chippy as I had no rice.
    Gah. Please stop.

    This all sounds tons better than an apricot eat natural bar and a packet of ready salted crisps.....
    I've just been a fat pie and eaten a whole Cadbury's Dairy Milk buttons egg.

    This is Not A Good Thing, but it was.. good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Just so everyone knows, I'm flying to Kenya to look at the VERY LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, on Sunday. For The Times.

    http://www.olpejetaconservancy.org/wildlife/rhinos/northern-white-rhinos/

    There are three left. THREE.
    My risotto is better than any stupid white rhino
  • On topic, best wishes to the Hayfield family. Harry's contributions through the weekly by-election updates are an invaluable contribution to the site keeping us in touch with the real world beyond polls and opinions. The detail that goes into his columns is immense and deserves a great deal of credit.

    Off topic, Leave is surely value tonight at 2/1? There is a serious prospect that there won't be a deal tomorrow. Besides Britain, the EU also needs to discuss the migrant crisis, which is a much bigger deal for most members than the UK's renegotiations. No deal would probably mean no referendum until the autumn, which would have to favour Leave (which is one reason Cameron wants a deal now).

    It might all be posturing but I doubt it given the seriousness of the migration crisis. Would Tusk, Merkel and the PMs from the central and eastern states be taking the UK's talks into a second day unless there was a lot of talking still to be done?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Currently reading this thread in a Cambridge college having missed supper and raided the vending machine. I can almost taste your risotto from the words you wrote....
    Which college?
  • Looks like the deal is getting nowhere.... (although a health warning; it could be panto)

    'No progress' so far at EU summit - 21:08

    Negotiations on David Cameron's EU reform demands have made "no real progress" so far, Downing Street sources say.

    The first session of the EU Council ended with a "significant gap on a number of issues", the sources said.

    Mr Cameron is attempting to persuade other EU leaders in Brussels to agree the reforms he wants before holding an in/out referendum.

    But objections have been raised including over child benefit curbs.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/700415002973507586

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/700414700039880705

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/700417174247251973
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Evening all :)

    First, hope your grandmother is soon well, Harry.

    Second, three tough defences for the LDs but all I can offer knowledge-wise relates to the Newmarket & Red Lodge by-election for Suffolk CC. The West Suffolk Independent candidate, Andrew Appleby, was once an LD Councillor on Forest Heath but left the party in 2009 and stood as an Independent in West Suffolk in 2010.

    The West Suffolk Independent Group was set up in 2015 and has a small number of County, District and Parish Councillors. Not to be under estimated in a seat where I think one of the main issues is a large housing development on the outskirts of Newmarket.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited February 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Currently reading this thread in a Cambridge college having missed supper and raided the vending machine. I can almost taste your risotto from the words you wrote....
    Which college?
    Westminster - lovely place and bargain rooms very close to the centre, if you're travelling alone and can abide a single.
    Here for tomorrow's bookfair
  • Roger said:

    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........

    If the talks fail and Cameron recommends Leave, it'll be at least a 2:1 majority for Leave. Dave could waltz into another general election with a united party behind him, coming out with a majority of 150.

    I'm not expecting him to jump the Remain ship though. If he can't get a deal, he'll try for the March or June summits.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Wanderer said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, that's the funny thing about Blair. Most people regard him, rightly, as a wholly despicable creature, who lacks any sense of right or wrong, the Gollum of British politics. But, Cameron and Osborne adore him, as do a key group of swing voters in marginal seats.

    If I'm honest I still carry a torch for Tony Blair. I don't live in a marginal though so it doesn't matter ;)
    I must say Blair is one person I would be happy to see torched.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    Indeed. For domestic voter consumption.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Roger said:

    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........

    If the talks fail and Cameron recommends Leave, it'll be at least a 2:1 majority for Leave. Dave could waltz into another general election with a united party behind him, coming out with a majority of 150.

    I'm not expecting him to jump the Remain ship though. If he can't get a deal, he'll try for the March or June summits.
    If Dave switches to leave, it must be nailed on George does too !
  • runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    No, I seriously think some EU countries think this f-ing shite deal goes "too far".

    Our natural bafflement - and their resistance - just goes to highlight the absolutely colossal gap between ourselves and the rest of the EU politically.

    Vote Leave.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    "you grunt, I'll groan."
  • I never bought into belief renegotiation was stage managed process overall, but this "serious differences up until last minute" stuff is painfully obvious theatrics.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........

    If the talks fail and Cameron recommends Leave, it'll be at least a 2:1 majority for Leave. Dave could waltz into another general election with a united party behind him, coming out with a majority of 150.

    I'm not expecting him to jump the Remain ship though. If he can't get a deal, he'll try for the March or June summits.
    If Dave switches to leave, it must be nailed on George does too !
    If Dave switched to Leave, he'd probably have 90% of the parliamentary party, and 90% of the voluntary party with him. And Tim Montgomerie would look a tit.

    Still won't do it.
  • Roger said:

    My dream scenario......

    .... Cameron decides talks have failed so he recommends 'Leave' and 'Remain' wins. Cameron resigns and the Tories slip into civil war and appoint Pritty the unmerciful as leader........

    If the talks fail and Cameron recommends Leave, it'll be at least a 2:1 majority for Leave. Dave could waltz into another general election with a united party behind him, coming out with a majority of 150.

    I'm not expecting him to jump the Remain ship though. If he can't get a deal, he'll try for the March or June summits.
    He would be a hero, and would go down in history as one of the greatest Conservative leaders of all time, but the rocks will melt with the sun before David Cameron recommends Leave.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    MP_SE said:

    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    Indeed. For domestic voter consumption.
    Down playing expectations now, and then proclaim a great settlement later. And how many gullible people are going to fall for that one?!

    And then we'll have the nauseating claims that UK depends on the EU for 3m jobs....think what we could do instead with the £30m net per day contribution to the EU. And try telling those 60% of youth unemployed in Greece, that the youth that are lucky enough to have a job there are dependent on the EU for their job! Risible, just risible.
  • Man U lose 1-2.
    Spurs and Liverpool can't win (so far, in the case of Liverpool; one hour played).

    Is there going to be any result for the UK in Europe today?
  • I've seen more convincing performances at school naivety plays than Cameron vs The EU disaster movie.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    Panto. The solution's behind you Mr Cameron, oh no it isn't, says Mr Tusk, oh yes it ... We all know the script.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    hunchman said:

    MP_SE said:

    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    Indeed. For domestic voter consumption.
    Down playing expectations now, and then proclaim a great settlement later. And how many gullible people are going to fall for that one?!

    And then we'll have the nauseating claims that UK depends on the EU for 3m jobs....think what we could do instead with the £30m net per day contribution to the EU. And try telling those 60% of youth unemployed in Greece, that the youth that are lucky enough to have a job there are dependent on the EU for their job! Risible, just risible.
    Dave will come back a triumphant man and will be able to say how much influence we have. He went into a negotiation facing a huge amount of hostility and was able to persuade those in attendance to support his "deal".
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016
    We have the row as Lansley predicted.
    The fact that it is an argument over items that would fit on top of a pin head goes unreported in the main media channel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sean_F said:

    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    "you grunt, I'll groan."

    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    No, I seriously think some EU countries think this f-ing shite deal goes "too far".

    Our natural bafflement - and their resistance - just goes to highlight the absolutely colossal gap between ourselves and the rest of the EU politically.

    Vote Leave.
    It can't be both of these. But either explanation works to the same end.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    No, I seriously think some EU countries think this f-ing shite deal goes "too far".

    Our natural bafflement - and their resistance - just goes to highlight the absolutely colossal gap between ourselves and the rest of the EU politically.

    Vote Leave.
    I think SeanT had it earlier. Our politicians have lied to us consistently for 40 years, but I'm also starting to think they have lied to the EU. The sides may be far further than either imagined. And that is what the referendum is flushing out, and why no politician has wanted a referendum in that time.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    We have the row as Lansley predicted.

    And to think of all those undecideds and remainers who said Lansley was talking out his arse...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Each leader has a vested interest in pushing things to the last minute so they can say they pushed as hard as they can for their country.

    I think that's the reality.

    Nailed on a last minute agreement is reached "Past the eleventh hour" etc etc.
  • Man U lose 1-2.
    Spurs and Liverpool can't win (so far, in the case of Liverpool; one hour played).

    Is there going to be any result for the UK in Europe today?

    Spurs shouldn't want to win.
    Bigger fish to fry with the Premiership.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Each leader has a vested interest in pushing things to the last minute so they can say they pushed as hard as they can for their country.

    I think that's the reality.

    Nailed on a last minute agreement is reached "Past the eleventh hour" etc etc.

    I think that's correct.

    I'm bored now. Logging off.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    We have the row as Lansley predicted.
    The fact that it is an argument over items that would fit on top of a pin head goes unreported in the main media channel.

    My dog could have predicted that. Would have done a better job at Health too.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    taffys said:

    runnymede said:

    'serious differences' remain, say sources.

    How can you have serious differences over nothing? This is just more smoke and mirrors

    No, I seriously think some EU countries think this f-ing shite deal goes "too far".

    Our natural bafflement - and their resistance - just goes to highlight the absolutely colossal gap between ourselves and the rest of the EU politically.

    Vote Leave.
    I think SeanT had it earlier. Our politicians have lied to us consistently for 40 years, but I'm also starting to think they have lied to the EU. The sides may be far further than either imagined. And that is what the referendum is flushing out, and why no politician has wanted a referendum in that time.
    Yes ever closer union: we thought in '73 those funny foreigners weren't serious about it, and they thought the funny Brits actually agreed with it because we'd signed up.
  • Tonight could be one of those nights that defines a country's success in the European Song Contest. Things just got real for some of you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Just so everyone knows, I'm off to look at the VERY LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, on Sunday. For The Times.

    http://www.olpejetaconservancy.org/wildlife/rhinos/northern-white-rhinos/

    There are three left. THREE.
    That's almost too sad for words :(
    It is unbearable, I think. Happening on our watch.

    Shameful.
    The Western Black Rhino was declared extinct in 2011. It probably went whilst most of us were posting on pb.com.

    There are other subspecies which have gone extinct or are on the verge of it. The Chobe Black rhino is down to perhaps a single living creature. Clearly that will go soon too. Only the south-central Black Rhino survives in any numbers. I was lucky enough to see a herd of 11 in the Ngorongoro Crater back in 1994. Probably the only opportunity in the wild on the planet.

    DNA work suggest that the Northern White Rhino is a full species, distinct from those in southern Africa. So another species that must inevitably go, in our lifetime. It will be powerful, seeing these things close to departure from our world. I imagine it will probably be quite difficult to curb your anger. Fucking Chinese medicine. Rhinos. Tigers. Snow Leopards. Being wiped out, just so some Chinese **** thinks he can get a moment of immortality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    I see 2 scenarios.

    (1) Cameron finds it impossible tomorrow to reach an acceptable deal and returns to the UK with great drama pending another conference in a couple of weeks time.

    (2) Cameron gives up the renegotiation as a bad and embarrassing job and accepts that he has to win the referendum on the state of the EU as it is having demonstrated how hard satisfactory change is. A less than optimal position.

    I would say the odds are at least 80:20 in favour of option (1). Unfortunately this means another 2 weeks of non stop EU threads. You start to get a bit jealous of those rhino don't you?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Just so everyone knows, I'm off to look at the VERY LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, on Sunday. For The Times.

    http://www.olpejetaconservancy.org/wildlife/rhinos/northern-white-rhinos/

    There are three left. THREE.
    That's almost too sad for words :(
    It is unbearable, I think. Happening on our watch.

    Shameful.
    The Western Black Rhino was declared extinct in 2011. It probably went whilst most of us were posting on pb.com.

    There are other subspecies which have gone extinct or are on the verge of it. The Chobe Black rhino is down to perhaps a single living creature. Clearly that will go soon too. Only the south-central Black Rhino survives in any numbers. I was lucky enough to see a herd of 11 in the Ngorongoro Crater back in 1994. Probably the only opportunity in the wild on the planet.

    DNA work suggest that the Northern White Rhino is a full species, distinct from those in southern Africa. So another species that must inevitably go, in our lifetime. It will be powerful, seeing these things close to departure from our world. I imagine it will probably be quite difficult to curb your anger. Fucking Chinese medicine. Rhinos. Tigers. Snow Leopards. Being wiped out, just so some Chinese **** thinks he can get a moment of immortality.
    I do think that of everything happening in our time this will be the hardest to explain to a future generation. War, famine, greed, hunger - these things we have always with us. But to make a large swathe of megafauna extinct, not because we are desperate for farmland or because the animals are too dangerous to live with next to our towns, but for utterly deluded irrational shit - how to explain this?
  • I'm remembering vetogasm.
  • Tonight could be one of those nights that defines a country's success in the European Song Contest. Things just got real for some of you.

    Did you see the story on Sky earlier that they're planning on changing the scoring system?
    Hope it doesn't bugger up the tenner that I've got on the Russkies to win it this year.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I'm remembering vetogasm.

    And I also
  • Tonight could be one of those nights that defines a country's success in the European Song Contest. Things just got real for some of you.

    Did you see the story on Sky earlier that they're planning on changing the scoring system?
    Hope it doesn't bugger up the tenner that I've got on the Russkies to win it this year.
    I did. Not keen on it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Wanderer said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just so everyone knows, I made a staggeringly good creamy garlic prawn risotto this evening.

    Just so everyone knows, I'm off to look at the VERY LAST NORTHERN WHITE RHINOS ON EARTH, on Sunday. For The Times.

    http://www.olpejetaconservancy.org/wildlife/rhinos/northern-white-rhinos/

    There are three left. THREE.
    That's almost too sad for words :(
    It is unbearable, I think. Happening on our watch.

    Shameful.
    The Western Black Rhino was declared extinct in 2011. It probably went whilst most of us were posting on pb.com.

    There are other subspecies which have gone extinct or are on the verge of it. The Chobe Black rhino is down to perhaps a single living creature. Clearly that will go soon too. Only the south-central Black Rhino survives in any numbers. I was lucky enough to see a herd of 11 in the Ngorongoro Crater back in 1994. Probably the only opportunity in the wild on the planet.

    DNA work suggest that the Northern White Rhino is a full species, distinct from those in southern Africa. So another species that must inevitably go, in our lifetime. It will be powerful, seeing these things close to departure from our world. I imagine it will probably be quite difficult to curb your anger. Fucking Chinese medicine. Rhinos. Tigers. Snow Leopards. Being wiped out, just so some Chinese **** thinks he can get a moment of immortality.
    I do think that of everything happening in our time this will be the hardest to explain to a future generation. War, famine, greed, hunger - these things we have always with us. But to make a large swathe of megafauna extinct, not because we are desperate for farmland or because the animals are too dangerous to live with next to our towns, but for utterly deluded irrational shit - how to explain this?
    I would have no problem with a security service accessing the powdered rhino horn - and mixing it with a nasty strain of anthrax. That would stop the trade - overnight.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    DavidL said:

    I see 2 scenarios.

    (1) Cameron finds it impossible tomorrow to reach an acceptable deal and returns to the UK with great drama pending another conference in a couple of weeks time.

    (2) Cameron gives up the renegotiation as a bad and embarrassing job and accepts that he has to win the referendum on the state of the EU as it is having demonstrated how hard satisfactory change is. A less than optimal position.

    I would say the odds are at least 80:20 in favour of option (1). Unfortunately this means another 2 weeks of non stop EU threads. You start to get a bit jealous of those rhino don't you?

    It's not really possible for Cameron to campaign for Remain in scenario 2) is it? He hasn't got what he said was necessary. He could, Wilson-like, say that Remain was his recommendation, but he couldn't credibly campaign for it.

    Can Cameron disengage like that?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @stodge


    'The West Suffolk Independent Group was set up in 2015 and has a small number of County, District and Parish Councillors. Not to be under estimated in a seat where I think one of the main issues is a large housing development on the outskirts of Newmarket.'


    Getting your excuses in early.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Has he travelled there in a Spitfire?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Wanderer said:

    DavidL said:

    I see 2 scenarios.

    (1) Cameron finds it impossible tomorrow to reach an acceptable deal and returns to the UK with great drama pending another conference in a couple of weeks time.

    (2) Cameron gives up the renegotiation as a bad and embarrassing job and accepts that he has to win the referendum on the state of the EU as it is having demonstrated how hard satisfactory change is. A less than optimal position.

    I would say the odds are at least 80:20 in favour of option (1). Unfortunately this means another 2 weeks of non stop EU threads. You start to get a bit jealous of those rhino don't you?

    It's not really possible for Cameron to campaign for Remain in scenario 2) is it? He hasn't got what he said was necessary. He could, Wilson-like, say that Remain was his recommendation, but he couldn't credibly campaign for it.

    Can Cameron disengage like that?
    No so we will have scenario (1). It is incredibly exciting and dramatic isn't it?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    justin124 said:

    Wanderer said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT, that's the funny thing about Blair. Most people regard him, rightly, as a wholly despicable creature, who lacks any sense of right or wrong, the Gollum of British politics. But, Cameron and Osborne adore him, as do a key group of swing voters in marginal seats.

    If I'm honest I still carry a torch for Tony Blair. I don't live in a marginal though so it doesn't matter ;)
    I must say Blair is one person I would be happy to see torched.
    Get in line - about 40 million British, and 33 million Iraqis agree with you. (There should have been more Iraqis, but that's how it goes.)
  • DavidL said:

    I see 2 scenarios.

    (1) Cameron finds it impossible tomorrow to reach an acceptable deal and returns to the UK with great drama pending another conference in a couple of weeks time.

    (2) Cameron gives up the renegotiation as a bad and embarrassing job and accepts that he has to win the referendum on the state of the EU as it is having demonstrated how hard satisfactory change is. A less than optimal position.

    I would say the odds are at least 80:20 in favour of option (1). Unfortunately this means another 2 weeks of non stop EU threads. You start to get a bit jealous of those rhino don't you?

    Two other scenarios:

    (3) Cameron does the best deal he thinks he can tomorrow, reasoning that getting going with the campaign will be better than two, four or more weeks of listening to the Sun, Mail, Express, Telegraph and increasingly backbenchers and perhaps ministers publicly ratchet up the pressure, then coming back with something not-too-ideal anyway.

    (4) He says 'f*ck it' and backs Leave.

    The EU leaders will not want to be discussing Polish benefit repatriations while there is a migrant crisis unsolved. This is Cameron's moment and the EU's indulgence on the subject. After tomorrow, is ceases to be agenda item 1 and will have to fight for its place alongside everything else. In other words, if the deal isn't done tomorrow (or Saturday, if they decide to stay the extra day), I don't expect a June referendum.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    DavidL said:

    I see 2 scenarios.

    (1) Cameron finds it impossible tomorrow to reach an acceptable deal and returns to the UK with great drama pending another conference in a couple of weeks time.

    (2) Cameron gives up the renegotiation as a bad and embarrassing job and accepts that he has to win the referendum on the state of the EU as it is having demonstrated how hard satisfactory change is. A less than optimal position.

    I would say the odds are at least 80:20 in favour of option (1). Unfortunately this means another 2 weeks of non stop EU threads. You start to get a bit jealous of those rhino don't you?

    Judging by the form book, going back over many years of EU summits I would say that the favourite is a deal is reached in the early hours, nearer breakfast time if they want to make it look really difficult.

    I struggle to believe that having serious negotiations about very serious and important subjects dragging on to the early hours is in any way sensible or wise. Tired people make very bad decisions. That is if they are really negotiating rather than getting on the pop and/or playing cards for a few hours.
  • SeanT said:

    fpt for williamglen

    Don't be daft. We love and own our language, from the Royal Shakespeare Company to the Sun's Emma Thompson front page: Shut Yer Cakehole. We are the English, and we speak English - the greatest of our many gifts to a lucky world.

    There may be a slight sense of Wimbledonism, but consider the alternative. French. We could be French and facing the slow, inexorable decline of our language from global supremacy to basic irrelevance. How painful is that?

    Or we could speak Croat, Danish, Quechua, Navajo, or pidgin.

    English is the best language in the world!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    I see 2 scenarios.

    (1) Cameron finds it impossible tomorrow to reach an acceptable deal and returns to the UK with great drama pending another conference in a couple of weeks time.

    (2) Cameron gives up the renegotiation as a bad and embarrassing job and accepts that he has to win the referendum on the state of the EU as it is having demonstrated how hard satisfactory change is. A less than optimal position.

    I would say the odds are at least 80:20 in favour of option (1). Unfortunately this means another 2 weeks of non stop EU threads. You start to get a bit jealous of those rhino don't you?

    Two other scenarios:

    (3) Cameron does the best deal he thinks he can tomorrow, reasoning that getting going with the campaign will be better than two, four or more weeks of listening to the Sun, Mail, Express, Telegraph and increasingly backbenchers and perhaps ministers publicly ratchet up the pressure, then coming back with something not-too-ideal anyway.

    (4) He says 'f*ck it' and backs Leave.

    The EU leaders will not want to be discussing Polish benefit repatriations while there is a migrant crisis unsolved. This is Cameron's moment and the EU's indulgence on the subject. After tomorrow, is ceases to be agenda item 1 and will have to fight for its place alongside everything else. In other words, if the deal isn't done tomorrow (or Saturday, if they decide to stay the extra day), I don't expect a June referendum.
    (3) is a variation of (2) where he tries to sell a bad job. (4), unfortunately, is a fantasy although one that will no doubt be waved about as the drama builds.

    If we were a smaller EU country I would agree with your other point but losing 12% of the EU and the second biggest financial contributor will always be high on the agenda. Doesn't mean that they won't be getting pissed off with all this of course.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited February 2016

    Has he travelled there in a Spitfire?
    Nah, Lady Nugee says they're no use.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    >

    English is the best language in the world!

    Very possibly but I am told that Persian is the most beautiful, and having listened to some Persian poetry on the wireless last week ("In our Time" on Radio 4, worth the licence fee on its own) I can see where such a view comes from.
  • Sean_F said:

    FPT, that's the funny thing about Blair. Most people regard him, rightly, as a wholly despicable creature, who lacks any sense of right or wrong, the Gollum of British politics. But, Cameron and Osborne adore him, as do a key group of swing voters in marginal seats.

    Do swing voters really like Blair these days? In 1997 and 2001, yes - but by 2005 it seemed as if he was just the least worst option. But it's interesting that Labour supporters who have that view on Blair often get criticised.
This discussion has been closed.