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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from c
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the crucial Brussels talks go into day 2 it’s far from clear that Cameron will get a deal
Judging by the reporting in some of the press he has some way to go and it might be that this ends today without agreement. In that situation there will have to be more talks at a later date and it is going to be very hard to meet the deadline for a June 23rd vote.
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He's playing poker with his cards face up on the table, they know he's firmly in the "remain" camp despite his protests otherwise.
Cameron doesn't need to worry about the 15% of "fundamentalist" Leavers, he needs to worry about the 85% of those inclined towards Leave, who are mighty unimpressed with what he has achieved in these "negotiations" to date.
ITV News' Political Editor Robert Peston has been told the prime minister feels no real progress has been made on the five key issues during EU talks so far.
Cameron requires a good deal to secure the backing of senior ministers. ITV News understands that two cabinet members, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, are already "leaning towards the exit".
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-02-19/david-cameron-leaves-eu-summit-after-all-night-talks/
And then there is the calibre of the people leading the negotiations. Tusk was too arguably too liberal for Poland, and Juncker was Pm of one of the smallest nation states in the world. Hardly inspiring stuff.
1. No renegotiation. Just say to the voters, "Here's your Referendum. Take it or leave it."
2. Proper renegotiation. That will take a couple of years, before there's a referendum.
What we're getting is a Whitehall farce.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/27/david-cameron-loses-jean-claude-juncker-vote-eu
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/19/jeremy-corbyn-momentum-sweeps-board-at-labour-party-youth-elections I wonder if they will try and "no platform" Jezza because he is now too right-wing
3.5% turn out! Where were the rest? At a sit-in ?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrLa5SjIEAAVSY9.jpg
lets hope we don;t have another 3 year referendum campaign.
which in your terms means it will be a nutjob turnout contest
Leave nutjobs versus Remain nutjobs.
3.5% turn out! Where were the rest? At a sit-in ?
Same demographic saying they will definitely be voting to Remain.
3.5%
3.5%
Actually, in this demographic most of those 3.5% would probably prefer the Russian Federation to the EU.
3.5%
yup, they'll all be twittering themselves up and not realise its voting that counts. Meanwhile the old crusties will descend in droves to the ballot box.
This old crusty will postal vote Remain
Andc why not ? Every time we've had a tiff with France or Germany we've allied ourselves with the Russkies to balance things up.
Coming soon - Dave and Vladimir riding barebacked together across the South Downs.
Coming soon - Dave and Vladimir riding barebacked together across the South Downs.
Hugging n the Russian bear can be seriously bad for your breath these days.
According to Ipsos MORI, 47% of 18-34 year olds are certain to vote, compared to 73% of 55+.
weve done it before well do it again
the use of the word certain probably has different connotations betwee the age groups 47% = 4 to 7%
Who's he trying to kid!
This has already been agreed and the thin gruel on offer is being dressed up a some sort of ground breaking deal changer.
I'm just waiting for him to arrive at Heathrow and stand on the tarmac waving an EU doily saying "I have in my hand a piece of paper"
But it was 3.5% in an online ballot......if it had been postal I might have some sympathy.....if they can't even vote electronically, the oldies are going to carry on voting in governments who subsidise them at the expense of the young.....
Though the other trend in turnout goes the other way. Social clas ABC1 are much more likely to turnout than C2DE.
Good to see they are focussing on the big issues......
Different sections of the audience applaused each of them. After that I switched off.
Yep - that would have had the benefit of intellectual coherence and honesty - now we've got Cameron's ultimate 'Essay Crisis'......
The differential is much smaller than between older and younger voters. A lead of 19% among all voters falls to 10% among those who are 9/10 likely to vote, and 7% among those certain to vote.
Whilst there is an element of truth in that, had Cameron achieved what he himself promised to achieve both in his 2010GE manifesto, his 2013 Bloomberg speech, his 2014 conference speech *and* in his 2015GE manifeso, he would have overwhelming support in the Conservative Party.
That was an on-line ballot, they didn't even have to get their butts off the sofa, only 3.5% could be bother to click on a name!
He has spent a lot of time doing shuttle diplomacy since the election, in Europe, but I think he relied far too heavily on Merkel (who is now damaged goods) and has obviously put more effort into sewing up his own party.
I still think he could have used Bloomberg as the basis for a new legal treaty settlement in 2017/2018, linked to eurozone federalising at the same time as a quid pro quo.
A referendum result on that probably wouldn't have even been close.
This is a humiliating farce. Pity those of us who work in Europe and have to try to extricate ourselves as the reputation of the country is trashed. No use stammering that this puffed up peacock is nothing to do with us.
We didn't need a referendum or want one. This is a private matter between UKIP and the Tories from which we're all ending up losers.
Or is it just that all those who are natural luvvies (with seemingly very few exceptions) enter the arts?
I mentioned Margaret Thatcher to an actress (now doing business presentation and public speaking training) once as one of my inspirational figures.
She almost went purple.
My timeline has been flooded with pix of the Vatican walls and another papal fort in France.
The tone has been Bloody Hypocrite.
If you don't like the UK, and prefer working and living Europe, why do you care?
Politicians lying to cover a balls-up is par for the course, lying to the voters in full knowledge before the event is piss-poor although Cameron is still a neophyte next to Blair.
Other than preventing the issue dominating his second term, I don't know why he didn't go for that option. While the PR of the Tories infighting over Europe again would be bad, there's any number of other reforms you can get through while people are distracted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015
In England, it was over 55% of the vote going to the Tories and UKIP:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england
Sorry, I know that upsets you, but it's the truth.
If those who said they wanted a Labour led coalition had actually bothered to vote Cameron would have been the first one term PM since 1974 and right now we would have a Miliband led government.
This must be really hard for you to accept.
"[No agreement today] might suit Cameron. He has to be seen to have pushed hard and to claim some sort of victory in order that the narrative of the campaign is positive for him"
Only if three conditions are met:
1. He can get a worthwhile deal later.
2. He can manage the Leave-lean faction within the Conservatives, preventing them from breaking out into open hostility.
3. He can prevent Leave from riding the non-agreement as evidence of failure.
Pushing hard is not of itself enough; he has to come back with something meaningful. Pushing hard and not getting much would actually play into Leave's hands.
Lots of votes up for grabs, no-one is tapping into.
One is not filled with confidence in Cameron's negotiation.
Also, my watch is on go-slow. Contemplating whether to purchase a replacement or send it under warranty for repair [battery issues aren't covered, though, and I don't want to send it off just to wait for nothing].
"Even after extending the talks by another two weeks, and going in to bat for Britain, he still came back with feck all, anyone now want to claim we have influence in the EU ?"
Could they not be way to the left of Corbyn? No, I don't think so either, I expect that they're scattered all over the political spectrum.
You really should be prepared to back up any assertions otherwise they're pretty pointless.
Rubio 2.19
Trump 2.97
Cruz 2.91
Bush 1.47
Kasich 3.3
Sanders 1.94
Biden 2.74
Clinton 1.55
That is pretty much where I am at the moment. This stupid little story about the rate of CB to be paid to children who are not British, don't live here and have no intention of doing so by British taxpayers is annoying but is as far away from the strategic problems the UK faces in the EU as the EZ federalises as to be out of sight.
As Lords reform, that's different. Remember we now have a Lords which doesn't recognise the validity of the Tory majority in the Commons. Think about how Disraeli would have approached dealing with that...
At the moment you're leaving two thirds out of the conversation.
Far more logical, and already touched on in the thread, would be to reform the Lords by electing it by PR, taking advantage of the inherent right-of-centre majority in the country.
On reflection, I suspect you do and you don't care.
(as happened extensively on the Right during Blair's tenure, might be considered the consequence of losing
There is some truth in your accusation that a significant tranche of the population is being ignored at the moment. Most, unlike Mandelson last night, can't bring themselves to support the efforts of a Tory PM but still want to remain in the EU. The result may well depend on how many of these voters who are largely being ignored actually turn up on the day of the referendum.