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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All this week’s Local By-Election Results

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All this week’s Local By-Election Results

Oban North and Lorn (Argyll First defence, was Independent) on Argyll and Bute
Result: Scottish National Party 1,113 (42% +11%), Conservative 609 (23% +14%), Independent 608 (23% -32%), Green Party 300 (11%, no candidate last time)
Scottish National Party GAIN from Argyll First on the fourth count with a lead of 504 (19%) on a swing of 1.5% from Scottish National Party to Conservative

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Thank Harry, hope your Gran gets better
  • Just look at that Scottish Tory surge.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Not sure that NPXMP can rely on a Corbyn surge to sweep him back from retirement in Broxtowe :)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited February 2016
    FPT
    isam said:

    I seem to read of one of these trials every other day

    It's an epidemic of crime committed by those who neither like or respect our country.

    isam said:

    And another one http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35589339

    Junead Khan, 25, from Luton, had a guide to making a "viable" pipe bomb on his laptop, Kingston Crown Court heard.
    Prosecutors said he had planned to go abroad to fight for the Islamic State group but changed his mind and started preparing terrorist acts in the UK.
    Mr Khan denies making preparations for attacking military personnel in the UK between May 10 and July 14, 2015.

    "Now we are seeing the growth of positive forces acting against integration, of vested interests in the preservation and sharpening of racial and religious differences, with a view to the exercise of actual domination, first over fellow-immigrants and then over the rest of the population. "

    Like Smoking causes lung cancer, Mass immigration from Islamic countries causes extremism and violence against US
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Thanks Harry - hope your Gran is on the mend.

    Corbyn surge in the wrong places. Not much use gathering more votes in Manchester, particularly when wannabee Manchester Mayor Ivan Lewis thinks that it has poor public services. Must be the fault of all those 96 Labourites on Manchester City Council.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Anyone know - is the LibDem gain in Cambridgeshire part of the old Clement Freud seat?
  • More superb real world election results for Corbyn Labour. Winning where it is entrenched, losing spectacularly everywhere else.
  • Off topic, but I think deserving of note re South Carolina:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/02/19/cruz_looks_to_replicate_iowa_ground_game_in_south_carolina_129723.html

    One has to be cautious about claims of superior ground-game, but I think this one rings true, given the experience in Iowa.
  • Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the LD prospects in the locals in May. It seems to me they ought be able to gain some councillors. 200?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    More superb real world election results for Corbyn Labour. Winning where it is entrenched, losing spectacularly everywhere else.

    Indeed - the juxtaposition of Manchester and Broxtowe says it all.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2016
    A good(ish) show by the Lib Dems – still pockets of support, despite their national polling avg.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited February 2016

    Off topic, but I think deserving of note re South Carolina:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/02/19/cruz_looks_to_replicate_iowa_ground_game_in_south_carolina_129723.html

    One has to be cautious about claims of superior ground-game, but I think this one rings true, given the experience in Iowa.

    ^ Checks Ted Cruz position...

    Let's hope so !

    * 2nd behind the Donald though, ta.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Given that the Tory party is at that slightly embarrassing point in seppuku when you are pulling the bowel out and generally getting quite distracted by it all these are very, very poor results for Labour.
  • Completely off-topic, I've just passed 100k words in my compilation and review of my PB articles.

    God knows how many words I've written on the site over the years. Several million, I should think.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Now that Nate Silver has gotten over his initial disbelief that Donald Trump might be a serious runner and rider, 538 is once again producing some good stuff on the US elections.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    SeanT said:

    ooof x 2


    @AmbroseEP
    JP Morgan says credit markets now pricing in 52% chance of Brexit. Sees £ dropping to $1.33 before Referendum

    Well, at least one group will benefit hugely from Brexit: lawyers. Think of the work needed. All those agreements, laws etc. The work needed will be huge. HUGE. And lucrative.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    SeanT said:

    ooof x 2


    @AmbroseEP
    JP Morgan says credit markets now pricing in 52% chance of Brexit. Sees £ dropping to $1.33 before Referendum

    Which credit markets?
  • SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35615548

    I believe one signatory was a Mr Nabavi.

    Sounds fair. How many have criticised the deal before it's even been concluded?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35615548

    I believe one signatory was a Mr Nabavi.

    Wankers
  • DavidL said:

    Given that the Tory party is at that slightly embarrassing point in seppuku when you are pulling the bowel out and generally getting quite distracted by it all these are very, very poor results for Labour.

    The Tories have been brutally and ruthlessly effective on defining Corbyn to the voters.

    We are in a quasi Presidential system and the perceptions around Corbyn are disastrous for Labour
  • Reported that the summit is heading into Saturday. If so, the first 3-day European Council since 2000 (the one that agreed the Nice Treaty) and only the sixth in the EU's history.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Shameful of Nick Herbert to be associated with this
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35615548

    I believe one signatory was a Mr Nabavi.

    Sounds fair. How many have criticised the deal before it's even been concluded?
    Must admit that did make me LOL.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Now that Nate Silver has gotten over his initial disbelief that Donald Trump might be a serious runner and rider, 538 is once again producing some good stuff on the US elections.

    So I'm like Nate Silver! I'll take that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Polish European Minister asked if he's cancelled his weekend plans to stay in Brussels. "I had no weekend plans", he replies, meekly.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35615548

    I believe one signatory was a Mr Nabavi.

    Sounds fair. How many have criticised the deal before it's even been concluded?
    Indeed altho to be fair seanT criticizes and praises it often in the same sentence!
  • SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Pro-EU Tories getting their act together.

    Meanwhile the Leave side (and posters on here, who should know better) have been caught trashing the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    Given that the Tory party is at that slightly embarrassing point in seppuku when you are pulling the bowel out and generally getting quite distracted by it all these are very, very poor results for Labour.

    The Tories have been brutally and ruthlessly effective on defining Corbyn to the voters.

    We are in a quasi Presidential system and the perceptions around Corbyn are disastrous for Labour
    In fairness Corbyn has done most of it himself. I think he genuinely believes at least a large proportion of the nonsense he comes out with which makes him even more dangerous. Oh for a bit of Mandelson cynicism.
  • DavidL said:

    Given that the Tory party is at that slightly embarrassing point in seppuku when you are pulling the bowel out and generally getting quite distracted by it all these are very, very poor results for Labour.

    The Tories have been brutally and ruthlessly effective on defining Corbyn to the voters.

    We are in a quasi Presidential system and the perceptions around Corbyn are disastrous for Labour
    Corbyn does deserve some credit. It's not all the Tories' work.
  • Reported that the summit is heading into Saturday. If so, the first 3-day European Council since 2000 (the one that agreed the Nice Treaty) and only the sixth in the EU's history.

    Let's hope they didn't throw away the eggs and bacon.
  • I really need this deal to be done by today/Saturday at the latest, or one of my pieces for Sunday is kyboshed
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35615548

    I believe one signatory was a Mr Nabavi.

    Sounds fair. How many have criticised the deal before it's even been concluded?
    It's horribly embarrassing.

    Look at this sentence:

    "For the first time since 1975, a British Prime Minister has returned from a summit with more powers than when they arrived"

    He's still in Brussels!

    If this goes viral then it will be quite damaging to the REMAIN cause.
    'Italy could win this'......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    If you think the EU deal is amusing, just wait till the Republican convention when Trump is fifty delegates short and needs Ben Carson's odds and ends to take him over the line.
  • isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    I seem to read of one of these trials every other day

    It's an epidemic of crime committed by those who neither like or respect our country.

    isam said:

    And another one http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35589339

    Junead Khan, 25, from Luton, had a guide to making a "viable" pipe bomb on his laptop, Kingston Crown Court heard.
    Prosecutors said he had planned to go abroad to fight for the Islamic State group but changed his mind and started preparing terrorist acts in the UK.
    Mr Khan denies making preparations for attacking military personnel in the UK between May 10 and July 14, 2015.

    "Now we are seeing the growth of positive forces acting against integration, of vested interests in the preservation and sharpening of racial and religious differences, with a view to the exercise of actual domination, first over fellow-immigrants and then over the rest of the population. "

    Like Smoking causes lung cancer, Mass immigration from Islamic countries causes extremism and violence against US
    if you wanted, you could also argue that, like smoking, it also pays for the health service
  • Completely off-topic, I've just passed 100k words in my compilation and review of my PB articles.

    God knows how many words I've written on the site over the years. Several million, I should think.

    Just add in all thoses threads you half wrote/ditched/events overtook them and were never published.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    This is sent out even as the summit heads into an unprecedented third day. It's mortifying. A total gaffe. Cringe-making.

    And you say this is "getting their act together". I'd hate to see what happens when they screw up. What do they do then? Personally explode on camera?

    Sure, it's cringe making.

    So what? These are not meant to be objective statements (if you want those, read my posts!). They are the equivalent of political pamphlets.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Pro-EU Tories getting their act together.

    Meanwhile the Leave side (and posters on here, who should know better) have been caught trashing the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?
    so, praising the deal beforehand - all fine and dandy or "getting their act together"

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    mhhhhhhh
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited February 2016
    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?
  • I really need this deal to be done by today/Saturday at the latest, or one of my pieces for Sunday is kyboshed

    I could really do with either a conclusion by 4pm or nothing until tomorrow. Of the two, my money would be on the latter.
  • Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Because we'd end up bankrupt?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    FPT

    isam said:

    I seem to read of one of these trials every other day

    It's an epidemic of crime committed by those who neither like or respect our country.

    isam said:

    And another one http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35589339

    Junead Khan, 25, from Luton, had a guide to making a "viable" pipe bomb on his laptop, Kingston Crown Court heard.
    Prosecutors said he had planned to go abroad to fight for the Islamic State group but changed his mind and started preparing terrorist acts in the UK.
    Mr Khan denies making preparations for attacking military personnel in the UK between May 10 and July 14, 2015.

    "Now we are seeing the growth of positive forces acting against integration, of vested interests in the preservation and sharpening of racial and religious differences, with a view to the exercise of actual domination, first over fellow-immigrants and then over the rest of the population. "

    Like Smoking causes lung cancer, Mass immigration from Islamic countries causes extremism and violence against US
    if you wanted, you could also argue that, like smoking, it also pays for the health service
    You could also say, if you wanted, that if we didn't spend so much police time and tax payers money foiling terrorist plots from "British" muslims, investigating rapes from "British" muslims, and teaching "British" muslims how to speak English we would all be better off.

    If they integrate its nothing done, if they don't, we are worse off. Why bother?

  • I really need this deal to be done by today/Saturday at the latest, or one of my pieces for Sunday is kyboshed

    I could really do with either a conclusion by 4pm or nothing until tomorrow. Of the two, my money would be on the latter.
    It's like the Greek economic mess all over again.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Pro-EU Tories getting their act together.

    ... snip ...
    Really? Is there anything that Tories could do to which you wouldn't apply some positive spin?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
  • DavidL said:

    Given that the Tory party is at that slightly embarrassing point in seppuku when you are pulling the bowel out and generally getting quite distracted by it all these are very, very poor results for Labour.

    The Tories have been brutally and ruthlessly effective on defining Corbyn to the voters.

    We are in a quasi Presidential system and the perceptions around Corbyn are disastrous for Labour

    Corbyn has done it all himself. Like most of his supporters, though, Jezza is very comfortably off and can happily live under a Tory government.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Pro-EU Tories getting their act together.

    Meanwhile the Leave side (and posters on here, who should know better) have been caught trashing the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?
    Getting their fucking act together? They've been caught lying, and in the most ridiculous way.

    "For the first time since 1975, a British Prime Minister has returned from a summit with more powers than when they arrived"

    This is sent out even as the summit heads into an unprecedented third day. It's mortifying. A total gaffe. Cringe-making.
    Not quite unprecedented. There have been five previous European Councils that have gone to a third day, though only one since 1988. None has ever gone to a fourth, although the October 2011 Eurozone Council did.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    This is sent out even as the summit heads into an unprecedented third day. It's mortifying. A total gaffe. Cringe-making.

    And you say this is "getting their act together". I'd hate to see what happens when they screw up. What do they do then? Personally explode on camera?

    Sure, it's cringe making.

    So what? These are not meant to be objective statements (if you want those, read my posts!)
    First you claimed it was evidence of them "getting their act together." Now you admit it's cringe-making

    The significance of this is that there is a meme floating around, that the entire deal is a charade, Cameron was going to recommend staying whatever he got, and he's just lying now, along with most of his party.

    This stuff seriously reinforces that idea. And it's poisonous for REMAIN.
    Not really, most people won't give two hoots over a minor embarrassment like this and those that do will be the sort to make their minds up on over issues already anyway. Of course some were going to praise the deal whatever it was. Of course some were going to criticise it whatever it was.i don't think any swing voter would imagine otherwise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Pro-EU Tories getting their act together.

    Meanwhile the Leave side (and posters on here, who should know better) have been caught trashing the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?
    I think a healthy sceptisicm is the right attitude pre deal announcement.
  • Looks like Britain has called for their best negotiator to sort out this EU deal once and for all....

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/19/friday-caption-contest-eu-puppet-edition/
  • isam said:



    You could also say, if you wanted, that if we didn't spend so much police time and tax payers money foiling terrorist plots from "British" muslims, investigating rapes from "British" muslims, and teaching "British" muslims how to speak English we would all be better off.

    If they integrate its nothing done, if they don't, we are worse off. Why bother?

    bother because like it or not many of them are British, not "British". How else can you describe 2nd or 3rd generation immigrants? we can accept or reject your assertions that enoch was right etc. but unless you are actually advocating something fairly extreme, there aren&t many other options, are there?

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He'd say the Channel isn't enough to protect us - we need a wall as well....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited February 2016

    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Tories caught officially praising the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Pro-EU Tories getting their act together.

    Meanwhile the Leave side (and posters on here, who should know better) have been caught trashing the deal before it's even been concluded.

    Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?
    As I recall Mr Nabavi a few weeks ago when Mr Cameron announced the terms of a draft outline deal (tbc) you spent quite a lot of time praising how good it was, better than you hoped in all the circumstances. Some of us - including me - criticised you for that and criticised what we understood the possible deal might be.

    I have put forward suggestions for what I would like to see and for why I think what appears to be the case seems to me not to be in our interests. Let's see what ultimately happens.

    But you have not been exactly Trappist yourself.

  • DavidL said:

    Given that the Tory party is at that slightly embarrassing point in seppuku when you are pulling the bowel out and generally getting quite distracted by it all these are very, very poor results for Labour.

    The Tories have been brutally and ruthlessly effective on defining Corbyn to the voters.

    We are in a quasi Presidential system and the perceptions around Corbyn are disastrous for Labour

    Corbyn has done it all himself. Like most of his supporters, though, Jezza is very comfortably off and can happily live under a Tory government.

    I have some sympathy for Corbyn in the sense the Tories took his Bin Laden quote out of context.

    But he has helped them so much.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
    Nor is a strategy where you negotiate with one person (Tusk) and then take that weak broth to be renegotiated by the real parties, the other EU partners. That process itself is always bound to result in you getting less than you would in a one-step negotiation.

    Hopeless negotiating strategy and tactics at every single step.
  • Up to 5,000 Isil-trained jihadists could be at large in Europe

    We can expect Isil or other terrorist groups to stage an attack in Europe, warns Rob Wainwright, the British head of Europol, the EU’s police agency

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/12165093/Up-to-5000-Isil-trained-jihadists-could-be-at-large-in-Europe.html
  • Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
    You have to announce that you'll accept the right deal. Nobody negotiates a deal to buy a house without an underlying assumption that you want to accept a deal at the end of negotiations.
  • Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
    There is no substance.

    That is the message.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
    As I've mentioned, he hasn't even done the Carpet Haggling 1.01 course. Just bounded up and said "My man, I badly need a carpet - and this is how much I have to spend..."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He's all piss and wind. You need a woman. Me, for instance. Deadly. Ruthless. Have never lost a case. And speak 4 European languages. Plus I could tease Hollande about Napoleon. :)

  • SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
    Completely wrong. The people who will explain this deal to the public are the press, the hacks, the BBC (who broke this story, via Laura Kuenssberg). If the press decides that the deal is not only bad, but the politicians who confected it are ridiculous liars, then it will be negative for REMAIN.





    You're pinning your hopes on the BBC coming out for Leave? More chance of them coming out for Trump.
  • Up to 5,000 Isil-trained jihadists could be at large in Europe

    We can expect Isil or other terrorist groups to stage an attack in Europe, warns Rob Wainwright, the British head of Europol, the EU’s police agency

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/12165093/Up-to-5000-Isil-trained-jihadists-could-be-at-large-in-Europe.html

    media trained? they don&t appear to have any special skills besides youtube, and being particularly barbarous
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Has no one told Dave that the 20:20 starts in half an hour? Get a grip man and pay attention to the important things in life.
  • Harper Lee has died. Wrote my favourite book.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited February 2016

    isam said:



    You could also say, if you wanted, that if we didn't spend so much police time and tax payers money foiling terrorist plots from "British" muslims, investigating rapes from "British" muslims, and teaching "British" muslims how to speak English we would all be better off.

    If they integrate its nothing done, if they don't, we are worse off. Why bother?

    bother because like it or not many of them are British, not "British". How else can you describe 2nd or 3rd generation immigrants? we can accept or reject your assertions that enoch was right etc. but unless you are actually advocating something fairly extreme, there aren&t many other options, are there?

    I wouldn't say that someone with non British parents was as British as someone with British parents.. I also don't think its any better to be British than it is to be any other nationality, but here is a difference. People can disagree, fair enough, but it is my opinion. The fact that the people who fight for ISIS almost all fit into the former category is your evidence. that it is a factor.

    It's a nightmare of our own creation, something could have been done about it without extreme action if Enoch had been listened to, but I agree nothing can be done about it without extreme action now.

    It's a classic case of someone with foresight vs an after timer.. unfortunately, sometimes the after timers get to tell the story
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
    Nor is a strategy where you negotiate with one person (Tusk) and then take that weak broth to be renegotiated by the real parties, the other EU partners. That process itself is always bound to result in you getting less than you would in a one-step negotiation.

    Hopeless negotiating strategy and tactics at every single step.
    Spot on. Utterly frustrating for those of us who were looking for SOME reason to vote Remain.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    This is sent out even as the summit heads into an unprecedented third day. It's mortifying. A total gaffe. Cringe-making.

    And you say this is "getting their act together". I'd hate to see what happens when they screw up. What do they do then? Personally explode on camera?

    Sure, it's cringe making.

    So what? These are not meant to be objective statements (if you want those, read my posts!)
    First you claimed it was evidence of them "getting their act together." Now you admit it's cringe-making

    The significance of this is that there is a meme floating around, that the entire deal is a charade, Cameron was going to recommend staying whatever he got, and he's just lying now, along with most of his party.

    This stuff seriously reinforces that idea. And it's poisonous for REMAIN.
    Sean: apart from you, Mr N and me and maybe a few others, no-one else is paying any attention to this.

    The budget will likely have more impact on any referendum than anything coming out of Brussels. Cameron could just as easily lose this if Osborne screws over everyone's pensions and the middle classes decide to take their revenge.

  • SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
    Completely wrong. The people who will explain this deal to the public are the press, the hacks, the BBC (who broke this story, via Laura Kuenssberg). If the press decides that the deal is not only bad, but the politicians who confected it are ridiculous liars, then it will be negative for REMAIN.





    You're pinning your hopes on the BBC coming out for Leave? More chance of them coming out for Trump.
    you could buy them with a guaranteed license fee
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Harper Lee has died. Wrote my favourite book.

    The Grim Reaper getting back into his stride after a busy January....
  • Harper Lee has died. Wrote my favourite book.

    Quality of quantity...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He's all piss and wind. You need a woman. Me, for instance. Deadly. Ruthless. Have never lost a case. And speak 4 European languages. Plus I could tease Hollande about Napoleon. :)

    Gets my vote...
  • Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He's all piss and wind. You need a woman. Me, for instance. Deadly. Ruthless. Have never lost a case. And speak 4 European languages. Plus I could tease Hollande about Napoleon. :)

    I was actually fantasising about this night.

    How much better would a vote Leave panel be with you, Robert Smithson, Charles, and DavidL?

    If you were short-handed, I'd be happy to join you.

    If you wanted to juice things up a bit you could call SeanT and Marquee Mark onto the stage for a turn.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Up to 5,000 Isil-trained jihadists could be at large in Europe

    We can expect Isil or other terrorist groups to stage an attack in Europe, warns Rob Wainwright, the British head of Europol, the EU’s police agency

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/12165093/Up-to-5000-Isil-trained-jihadists-could-be-at-large-in-Europe.html

    Good old Mass Immigration from Islamic countries... like clockwork
  • Mr. Eagles, I was utterly bored by To Kill A Mockingbird, though I now suspect it was due to my teacher. (I did learn that dressing as a giant ham makes one impervious to knife attacks).

    Incidentally, cheers to Mr. F and Mr. Wanderer on the previous thread for their Tacitus comments. It sounds either like it was a bad translation or I was a bit off-colour when reading it.
  • DavidL said:

    Has no one told Dave that the 20:20 starts in half an hour? Get a grip man and pay attention to the important things in life.

    That England kit is still shite.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
    Richard, while I agree with most of that analysis, I depart from you at the very end. The one thing that voters pretty much everywhere are excellent at picking up on (because it is a function of our reptilian, emotional brain which is always engaged, rather than our rational brain which, as you point out, it not engaged in politics for most people) is mendacity and inauthenticity. They hate both, except in exceptional circumstances.

    This is what is so potentially damaging to Cameron and Remain from this process. If the impression sets in that they are using the power of government to be manipulative at best and outright lying at worst, then it will hugely damage their position in a way that is not easily reversed as it will have changed emotional and values-based beliefs (not knowledge) about Cameron and Remainers.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Up to 5,000 Isil-trained jihadists could be at large in Europe

    We can expect Isil or other terrorist groups to stage an attack in Europe, warns Rob Wainwright, the British head of Europol, the EU’s police agency

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/12165093/Up-to-5000-Isil-trained-jihadists-could-be-at-large-in-Europe.html

    Why the future tense? They've already done one - in Paris, last November. And others have, arguably, been inspired by IS.



  • Mr. Eagles, I was utterly bored by To Kill A Mockingbird, though I now suspect it was due to my teacher. (I did learn that dressing as a giant ham makes one impervious to knife attacks).

    Incidentally, cheers to Mr. F and Mr. Wanderer on the previous thread for their Tacitus comments. It sounds either like it was a bad translation or I was a bit off-colour when reading it.

    Loved it. We did at school. Then I watched the film, adored Gregory Peck even more.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He's all piss and wind. You need a woman. Me, for instance. Deadly. Ruthless. Have never lost a case. And speak 4 European languages. Plus I could tease Hollande about Napoleon. :)

    I was actually fantasising about this night.

    How much better would a vote Leave panel be with you, Robert Smithson, Charles, and DavidL?

    If you were short-handed, I'd be happy to join you.

    If you wanted to juice things up a bit you could call SeanT and Marquee Mark onto the stage for a turn.
    Count me in. :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He's all piss and wind. You need a woman. Me, for instance. Deadly. Ruthless. Have never lost a case. And speak 4 European languages. Plus I could tease Hollande about Napoleon. :)

    I was actually fantasising about this night.

    How much better would a vote Leave panel be with you, Robert Smithson, Charles, and DavidL?

    If you were short-handed, I'd be happy to join you.

    If you wanted to juice things up a bit you could call SeanT and Marquee Mark onto the stage for a turn.
    That's very kind. I can say that in 25 years negotiating contracts, I never failed to close a deal I wanted to do. (Killed a few I hated!)

    I used to have to knock on doors of people who had no idea who my company were, trying to get a foot in the door when our tech guys saw an exploration opportunity they liked. I was renowned for my "Irish Mafia Routine" - make them an offer they can't understand. As soon as you've got them going "Eh???" you've got them intrigued.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
    You have to announce that you'll accept the right deal. Nobody negotiates a deal to buy a house without an underlying assumption that you want to accept a deal at the end of negotiations.
    Mr. Thompson, in any field if the people you are negotiating with don't believe that you are prepared to walk away then you are going to get shafted. Cameron announced long ago that he was not prepared to walk away. He is in now in the process of trying to persuade our "partners" to give him a deal that he can pretend is good for the UK. He has already been knocked a long way back from what he originally said he wanted from these negotiations and is now in a face saving exercise and is struggling even with that.

    Cameron is supposedly very clever but I doubt he would last two months in a senior position in any serious company.
  • Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He'd say the Channel isn't enough to protect us - we need a wall as well....
    The only thing Trump has negotiated himself into is 4 Chapter 11 bankrupsies. This at least puts him on a par with Lehman Brothers. Not to mention General Motors (where everything viable was passed to a new company and the old GM renamed 'Motors Liquidation Company') . This specious comparison only serves to illustrate the stupidity of the Cameron haters. But this is all that the EU has come down to for oh so many.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    Cyclefree said:

    As I recall Mr Nabavi a few weeks ago when Mr Cameron announced the terms of a draft outline deal (tbc) you spent quite a lot of time praising how good it was, better than you hoped in all the circumstances.

    No, that is wrong. What happened was that I ignored the spin from both sides completely (in fact I didn't even read it), and I sat down and read the actual draft agreement as soon as it was published. Without looking at what anyone else said, I formed my own view as objectively as I could. My view, as I posted here, was that: 1. The Competitiveness bit was waffle. 2. The Migration/Benefits bit was less good than I expected. 3. The Sovereignty/Red Card bit was 'interesting' (shortly afterwards, having seen the arguments, I changed my view and said I'd been over-generous). Not exactly generous praise on the first three headings. On 4., Eurozone hegemony, I said I thought it was better than I expected, and I explained why.

    That remains my view on the draft. Of course I have no opinion on the as-yet non-existant final text, if there is one.

    To be quite frank, apart from yourself and a very few others, I seem to be almost alone in actually making up my own mind, as objectively as possible, based on the facts. Of course I might be wrong on the Eurozone protection - it's a complex area. At least I admit that I might be wrong. I haven't noticed a single naysayer doing so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited February 2016
    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
    Completely wrong. The people who will explain this deal to the public are the press, the hacks, the BBC (who broke this story, via Laura Kuenssberg). If the press decides that the deal is not only bad, but the politicians who confected it are ridiculous liars, then it will be negative for REMAIN.

    I don't know that this is particularly embarrassing.

    It's the laughably bad "deal" and hopelessly inept negotiating strategy from the PM that's embarrassing.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm taken aback by the withering comments and genuine hackles raised by the latest EU theatre from Belgium. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4694382.ece

    218 and counting - barely a mention of UKIP, just lots of very irked readers saying Time To Leave/Who The Eff Do You Think You Are in 200 different ways.
    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    This is sent out even as the summit heads into an unprecedented third day. It's mortifying. A total gaffe. Cringe-making.

    And you say this is "getting their act together". I'd hate to see what happens when they screw up. What do they do then? Personally explode on camera?

    Sure, it's cringe making.

    So what? These are not meant to be objective statements (if you want those, read my posts!)
    First you claimed it was evidence of them "getting their act together." Now you admit it's cringe-making

    The significance of this is that there is a meme floating around, that the entire deal is a charade, Cameron was going to recommend staying whatever he got, and he's just lying now, along with most of his party.

    This stuff seriously reinforces that idea. And it's poisonous for REMAIN.
    Sean: apart from you, Mr N and me and maybe a few others, no-one else is paying any attention to this.

    The budget will likely have more impact on any referendum than anything coming out of Brussels. Cameron could just as easily lose this if Osborne screws over everyone's pensions and the middle classes decide to take their revenge.

    The polls suggest you are wrong. Voters noticed the crapness of the first deal, and shifted accordingly.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Harper Lee has died. Wrote my favourite book.


    I wonder what other PBers' favorite books are. I would have a very hard time choosing, but Candide must be right up there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    He'd say the Channel isn't enough to protect us - we need a wall as well....
    The only thing Trump has negotiated himself into is 4 Chapter 11 bankrupsies. This at least puts him on a par with Lehman Brothers. Not to mention General Motors (where everything viable was passed to a new company and the old GM renamed 'Motors Liquidation Company') . This specious comparison only serves to illustrate the stupidity of the Cameron haters. But this is all that the EU has come down to for oh so many.
    To be fair, I don't think anyone was being within a million miles of serious....
  • Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
    You have to announce that you'll accept the right deal. Nobody negotiates a deal to buy a house without an underlying assumption that you want to accept a deal at the end of negotiations.
    Mr. Thompson, in any field if the people you are negotiating with don't believe that you are prepared to walk away then you are going to get shafted. Cameron announced long ago that he was not prepared to walk away. He is in now in the process of trying to persuade our "partners" to give him a deal that he can pretend is good for the UK. He has already been knocked a long way back from what he originally said he wanted from these negotiations and is now in a face saving exercise and is struggling even with that.

    Cameron is supposedly very clever but I doubt he would last two months in a senior position in any serious company.
    I agree you need to be prepared to walk away, but has Cameron ever said he was not prepared to walk away? I thought he said the opposite, but that he did not believe he would have to walk away which is a very different thing.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    An Event happened, the Ted Cruz case will go to court today in order to decide whether he is eligible to be President

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/ted-cruz-eligibility-case-heads-to-court.html?

    " CNN reports that an Illinois judge has agreed to hear arguments in a lawsuit challenging Cruz's eligibility on Friday."
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    MTimT said:

    Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
    Richard, while I agree with most of that analysis, I depart from you at the very end. The one thing that voters pretty much everywhere are excellent at picking up on (because it is a function of our reptilian, emotional brain which is always engaged, rather than our rational brain which, as you point out, it not engaged in politics for most people) is mendacity and inauthenticity. They hate both, except in exceptional circumstances.

    This is what is so potentially damaging to Cameron and Remain from this process. If the impression sets in that they are using the power of government to be manipulative at best and outright lying at worst, then it will hugely damage their position in a way that is not easily reversed as it will have changed emotional and values-based beliefs (not knowledge) about Cameron and Remainers.
    If the voters thought Cameron was a liar they'd have shown that in the GE. In general the voters don't like politicians - in that context Cameron does OK - recently I believe as many as 40% said they'd be influenced in deciding how to vote by DC.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Pulpstar said:

    David Cameron strikes me as a man who has never found it neccessary to drive a hard bargain to buy a house, or a car... or anything - and it's showing now.

    Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?

    Maybe Cameron would have found the actual negotiations easier if he hadn't declared he wants to stay in the EU beforehand.

    Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
    You have to announce that you'll accept the right deal. Nobody negotiates a deal to buy a house without an underlying assumption that you want to accept a deal at the end of negotiations.
    Mr. Thompson, in any field if the people you are negotiating with don't believe that you are prepared to walk away then you are going to get shafted. Cameron announced long ago that he was not prepared to walk away. He is in now in the process of trying to persuade our "partners" to give him a deal that he can pretend is good for the UK. He has already been knocked a long way back from what he originally said he wanted from these negotiations and is now in a face saving exercise and is struggling even with that.

    Cameron is supposedly very clever but I doubt he would last two months in a senior position in any serious company.
    I agree you need to be prepared to walk away, but has Cameron ever said he was not prepared to walk away? I thought he said the opposite, but that he did not believe he would have to walk away which is a very different thing.
    Indeed I believe he said specifically he would walk away. The frothers on here however are not interested in listening - they have already made up their minds - see the hysterics earlier because some on the remain side have already made up their minds.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    There's a man who takes his Neighbourhood Watch duties seriously.....
  • He was obviously a member of the same caravan club as those Iraqi, I mean British, members unfairly stopped in Greece last week.
  • MTimT said:

    Nor is a strategy where you negotiate with one person (Tusk) and then take that weak broth to be renegotiated by the real parties, the other EU partners. That process itself is always bound to result in you getting less than you would in a one-step negotiation.

    That's not what happened, and it's not how it's supposed to happen. The negotiations, for the past six months, have been mostly with the heads of government. Tusk was the broker coordinating this 28-way negotiation. His draft text was his best stab at coordinating the areas of agreement.

    There's no other possible way of doing this sort of complex international negotiation.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    felix said:

    MTimT said:

    Floater said:

    Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?

    No, I didn't say that at all. Farage and the Leave trashing the deal beforehand is exactly what I'd expect. I'd do the same in their position.

    Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:

    - Message
    - Substance

    Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
    Richard, while I agree with most of that analysis, I depart from you at the very end. The one thing that voters pretty much everywhere are excellent at picking up on (because it is a function of our reptilian, emotional brain which is always engaged, rather than our rational brain which, as you point out, it not engaged in politics for most people) is mendacity and inauthenticity. They hate both, except in exceptional circumstances.

    This is what is so potentially damaging to Cameron and Remain from this process. If the impression sets in that they are using the power of government to be manipulative at best and outright lying at worst, then it will hugely damage their position in a way that is not easily reversed as it will have changed emotional and values-based beliefs (not knowledge) about Cameron and Remainers.
    If the voters thought Cameron was a liar they'd have shown that in the GE. In general the voters don't like politicians - in that context Cameron does OK - recently I believe as many as 40% said they'd be influenced in deciding how to vote by DC.
    But we are talking about current developments, not what was the impression of Cameron in the run up to the GE. I agree, he is starting from a relatively good position of trust, but trust can destroyed very quickly.
  • Speedy said:

    An Event happened, the Ted Cruz case will go to court today in order to decide whether he is eligible to be President

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/ted-cruz-eligibility-case-heads-to-court.html?

    " CNN reports that an Illinois judge has agreed to hear arguments in a lawsuit challenging Cruz's eligibility on Friday."

    Stupid case and surely a case well above a local judge's paygrade.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    This is sent out even as the summit heads into an unprecedented third day. It's mortifying. A total gaffe. Cringe-making.

    And you say this is "getting their act together". I'd hate to see what happens when they screw up. What do they do then? Personally explode on camera?

    Sure, it's cringe making.

    So what? These are not meant to be objective statements (if you want those, read my posts!)
    First you claimed it was evidence of them "getting their act together." Now you admit it's cringe-making

    The significance of this is that there is a meme floating around, that the entire deal is a charade, Cameron was going to recommend staying whatever he got, and he's just lying now, along with most of his party.

    This stuff seriously reinforc
    es that idea. And it's poisonous for REMAIN.
    Most people in the street have no idea about the EU or what is going on. The only thing cringe making is the total ignorance and apathy of the public as demonstrated by the BBC vox pop down a high Street yesterday. At least one nonplussed respondant had the good grace to say 'oh dear now you've made me look stupid'.
    We have people falling over themselves to look stupid on here.

    I'm sure if the question asked by the BBC had been, 'do you hate murdering child molesting Muslims?' Then the answer would have been a unanimous 'Yes'
    This perhaps explains why the rabid Leavers want to associate this question with the EU.
  • Mr. Felix, we'll find out shortly.

    I would be significantly surprised if Cameron walked away and recommended we Leave. I think he'd prefer a delay to give Remain a better chance of winning, if no deal could be struck.

    Cameron's leading the country into the position Byzantium suffered when it became the site of a proxy trade war between Genoa and Venice. And it's voluntary.

    Biggest turn around in a leader's public esteem since Heraclius, perhaps.
This discussion has been closed.