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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So it’s on. In just four months Britain will vote whether to stay or leave

It means that the referendum campaign will in many ways be running at the same time as the Scottish Welsh and of course London elections which happen at the start of May.

Read the full story here

Tissue_Price

Time for a PB prediction comp?

Plato_Says

Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.

isam

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.

Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80s

david_herdson

"A big problem for Cameron was seen in this morning’s newspapers. generally the Tory press is hostile and wants Britain to leave. This means that effectively the campaign could be Cameron vs the Tory press – the same media that played such a part in getting him elected last May."

That is indeed a problem, although it was noticeable and notable that The Sun didn't have a splash front page kicking Cameron's backside.

All the same, Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens and SNP politicians, while many of his activists, members, MPs and cabinet campaign, as well as - as you rightly say - the Tory-supporting media go against him.

Good job he doesn't really need that media again!

Morris_Dancer

It's on, like Donkey Kong.

Mr. Price, I second the motion.

Yorkcity

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

viewcode

isam said:

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.

Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80s

(raises hand) "How"

Morris_Dancer

Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.

However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.

JackW

There has been much speculation in the absence of JackW on his position :

Was his LEAVE permanent or will he REMAIN on PB ?

Developing Story ....

surbiton

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.

However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.

Correct. And then we will campaign for Ever Closer Union. Even though I do not know what it means.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, welcome back

viewcode

In what may be an unbelievable coincidence, Thursday June 23rd is the day before the release of "Independence Day: Resurgence", the sequel to the 1990's blockbuster.

FrancisUrquhart

viewcode said:

isam said:

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.

Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80s

(raises hand) "How"

Wasn't one of the presenters on that show a certain pre-overly made up / overly worked on Carol Vorderman?

surbiton

Tissue_Price said:

Time for a PB prediction comp?

REMAIN 65 - 35 LEAVE

changed from 60 - 40

Yorkcity

david_herdson said:

"A big problem for Cameron was seen in this morning’s newspapers. generally the Tory press is hostile and wants Britain to leave. This means that effectively the campaign could be Cameron vs the Tory press – the same media that played such a part in getting him elected last May."

That is indeed a problem, although it was noticeable and notable that The Sun didn't have a splash front page kicking Cameron's backside.

All the same, Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens and SNP politicians, while many of his activists, members, MPs and cabinet campaign, as well as - as you rightly say - the Tory-supporting media go against him.

Good job he doesn't really need that media again!

David I can not believe any Labour politicians with ambitions of leadership will share any platform with Cameron during this period.
They will not as before be travelling up to Scotland on the same day to save the Union, they now know how that one played out.
Cameron Blair Straw Blunkett Mandelson maybe.
All new Labour together as that is what Cameron and Osborne are new Labour disciples.

MikeSmithson

We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week

isam

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

williamglenn

JackW said:

There has been much speculation in the absence of JackW on his position :

Was his LEAVE permanent or will he REMAIN on PB ?

Developing Story ....

When do we get to vote on the matter?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Smithson, cheers.

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, welcome back

Are you trying to inveigle me into the REMAIN camp? ..

surbiton

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning

And LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

Surely the number of players [ outcome ] has something to do with it.

viewcode

Yorkcity said:

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.

So no, basically.

I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.


[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act

JackW

MikeSmithson said:

We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week

For the want of idle speculation and to encourage competition my EuroARSE will decline to take part.

isam

surbiton said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning

And LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

Surely the number of players [ outcome ] has something to do with it.

Yeah it explains why you might be more hopeful of winning on some 9/4 shots than others, but really it makes no difference, they win 4 times out of 13 (theoretically)

Plato_Says

June 23rd is apparently slap in the middle of Euro footie, does this matter?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, a balanced approach is best.

I think you should Remain on pb.com, and we should Leave the EU.

JackW

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

There has been much speculation in the absence of JackW on his position :

Was his LEAVE permanent or will he REMAIN on PB ?

Developing Story ....

When do we get to vote on the matter?

After I have had meaningful discussions in Brussels and cast iron guarantees from Mrs JackW.

MarqueeMark

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.

However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.

I do wonder how another terrorist outrage in Europe would affect the Referendum, if it were undertaken by ISIL terrorists who had come into Europe as refugees. Obviously the Paris attack evoked a huge amount of sympathy, but I'm not sure that would necessarily be manifested this time in an upwelling of solidarity with wherever suffered this time. My guess is if, God forbid, it came about, it would significantly favour Leave. My take is the 70% Remain is probably about right, but based on a 55%-45% result. A Black Swan could shift that into toss-up territory.

Yorkcity

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.

However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.

Yes same here Morris.
I think leave has no chance, the same as Corbyn if he stands at the next GE.
The foreign Office establisment will not let it happen, even the royals are on board.

Plato_Says

Leaving the EU could be good for ones health too.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, a balanced approach is best.

I think you should Remain on pb.com, and we should Leave the EU.

dugarbandier

FPT

viewcode said:

dugarbandier said:

i suspect (without evidence) that those who view gambling in a positive light may not be evenly distributed across the political spectrum

Oooh, goddammit, that's actually interesting. "Risk-aversion and Risk-attraction as predictors of political affiliation": I'd read that for a dollar...

I think there is some academic research along those lines. I think there's an extra cultural factor regarding the morality of gambling, methodism (and other sects) and the history of the left. I still feel slightly conflicted about stoke city's current status being funded by bet365 (tho i don't have any real objection to gambling, apart from a cultural religious hangover)

ThreeQuidder

viewcode said:

isam said:

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.

Fred Dineage? That could sway a lot of people who watched "Gambit" and "How"in the early 80s

(raises hand) "How"

And that's How - for now.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. City, Leave has a better chance than Corbyn. But it's still a very long shot, in my view. Similar to Alonso winning the 2017 Drivers' title.

blackburn63

Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens

We all gravitate to where we're comfortable

CornishBlue

Plato_Says said:

June 23rd is apparently slap in the middle of Euro footie, does this matter?

England will be out of the competition by the 23rd anyway!

Wales on the other hand...

JackW

Plato_Says said:

June 23rd is apparently slap in the middle of Euro footie, does this matter?

Some REMAIN voters are on the pitch .... they think it's all over .... It is now ....

Yorkcity

viewcode said:

Yorkcity said:

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.

So no, basically.

I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.


[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act

Thanks viewcode much appreciated.

MarqueeMark

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week

For the want of idle speculation and to encourage competition my EuroARSE will decline to take part.

EURARSE will not be on display?

A nation mourns...

Plato_Says

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

agingjb

Since neither Leave nor Remain is an adequate option, and not voting would be sad, perhaps the best choice is a creatively spoiled paper.

Then an ideal, but unrealistic, result might be so close that the spoiled papers exceeded the majority,

In any case I'd expect the total of non-voters and spoiled papers, to exceed the majority.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.

Richard_Tyndall

Yorkcity said:

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

I would say no. I think Viewcode's analysis is bang on the money.

MarkHopkins

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

Bollox... is a thought one could have.

Yorkcity

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, Leave has a better chance than Corbyn. But it's still a very long shot, in my view. Similar to Alonso winning the 2017 Drivers' title.

Yes agreed.
The only reason I could see is turn out with older and conservative voters more likey to vote leave and Labour younger voters not as energised to bother to vote remain.

blackburn63

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

Yeah I've got thoughts on it but you'll accuse me of losing votes for Leave.

Let's just say its total bollox

MarqueeMark

viewcode said:

In what may be an unbelievable coincidence, Thursday June 23rd is the day before the release of "Independence Day: Resurgence", the sequel to the 1990's blockbuster.

I wonder if the sequel will also have plucky resistance fighters bringing down the forces of oppression - using a suicide bomber to show the way?

JackW

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

MikeSmithson said:

We will get a prediction competition up at some stage next week

For the want of idle speculation and to encourage competition my EuroARSE will decline to take part.

EURARSE will not be on display?

A nation mourns...

Not for the competition but a regular viewing of my EuroARSE seems apposite as the wind of change breezes through the nether regions of the EU.

MP_SE

Lol. Do these people really believe what they are saying:

https://twitter.com/ben4ipswich/status/701060118734102528

https://twitter.com/JustineGreening/status/701021894653435904

https://twitter.com/karren_brady/status/700995643121209344

Morris_Dancer

Mr. City, rather boringly, I agree with that as well.

ThreeQuidder

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. City, possible, but I don't think it'd happen.

However, I also think Remain has a very strong chance of winning. I'd be shocked if Leave won.

I do wonder how another terrorist outrage in Europe would affect the Referendum, if it were undertaken by ISIL terrorists who had come into Europe as refugees. Obviously the Paris attack evoked a huge amount of sympathy, but I'm not sure that would necessarily be manifested this time in an upwelling of solidarity with wherever suffered this time. My guess is if, God forbid, it came about, it would significantly favour Leave. My take is the 70% Remain is probably about right, but based on a 55%-45% result. A Black Swan could shift that into toss-up territory.

A key point that's often misinterpreted - 70% probability of a Remain win isn't a prediction of a 70% vote share. I'm annoyed with how often people get this wrong.

Speedy

It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.

It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.

As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.

Alanbrooke

Speedy said:

It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.

It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.

As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.

There will be quite a lot of Tories wondering why they voted for the wrong person now that the inners have been outed.

malcolmg

MarkHopkins said:

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

Bollox... is a thought one could have.

or TOTAL Bollox

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, which way are you planning to vote?

richardDodd

So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.

MattW

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

Snake Oil :-)

What is the equivalent number for, say, Canada?

Our govt doesn't seem to pay them much VAT and other things, but we still get a lot of jobs back.

Is there any data about the things we pay lower prices for? Lower prices than what?

Sunil_Prasannan

viewcode said:

In what may be an unbelievable coincidence, Thursday June 23rd is the day before the release of "Independence Day: Resurgence", the sequel to the 1990's blockbuster.

Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world. And you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind. "Mankind." That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it's fate that today is the 23rd of June, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom... Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution... but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the 23rd of June will no longer be known as a British holiday, but as the day the world declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! Today we celebrate our Independence Day!

Viceroy

We're starting the campaign virtually on a 50/50 basis... a lot of people keep going back to the 1975 referendum pointing out how it swung it in favour of the elites after a huge campaign. But the world isn't like that anymore, the elites are not trusted and you could actually say are distrusted. It's a different world to back then.

A few recent examples to think about are the Scottish independence referendum and how those poll figures shifted over the campaign, the Euro 2014 Elections and more recently in America the rise of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz against the GOP establishment.

JackW

richardDodd said:

So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.

Quite an assertion that a politician has actually kept their word .... I may have to lie down .... REMAIN there for some time and LEAVE Mrs JackW to explain the whole bizarre situation to me.

Speedy

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

Well as usual it's not accurate, for every pound we put in we lose 4 pounds from trade, we gain around a pound from extra EU investment, and prices are higher at least with agricultural goods due to the EU common agriculture policy.
If you account some extra jobs that the extra EU investment causes and job losses from German competition, Britain is net worse by around 2-3 times of it's contribution.

MP_SE

George will never be leader:

https://twitter.com/lawyers4britain/status/700964983631454208

Richard_Tyndall

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

I think the tweets underneath in response have said what needs to be said. The claim that our membership is worth £200 billion a year is so fanciful as to be laughable.

david_herdson

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Tyndall, it's a shade Doctor Evil.

Sunil_Prasannan

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

We give the EU roughly THIRTY times what we give to India, net.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRDfTBdCEAAMQU7.jpg:large

MonikerDiCanio

Speedy said:

It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.

It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.

As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.

In the deal Cameron aimed low and missed.

CornishBlue

Richard_Tyndall said:

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

I think the tweets underneath in response have said what needs to be said. The claim that our membership is worth £200 billion a year is so fanciful as to be laughable.

It's in the same class of Grade I bull as the classic "3 millions jobs" claim...

CornishBlue

MP_SE said:

George will never be leader:

https://twitter.com/lawyers4britain/status/700964983631454208

He won't be getting my vote, for sure.

Will be interesting to see which two MPs get to the final round of 2 (for the membership to vote). Boris v May is my guess now.

isam

david_herdson said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

The same!

david_herdson

viewcode said:

Yorkcity said:

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.

So no, basically.

I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.


[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act

It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.

blackburn63

david_herdson said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

Its an opinion. Heads v tails is evens, no outside factors. Punting is about judgement which is why most punters lose and better informed, dispassionate bookmakers win in the long term. Of course betfair has created a different animal.

What price were Arsenal to win today?

isam

blackburn63 said:

david_herdson said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

Its an opinion. Heads v tails is evens, no outside factors. Punting is about judgement which is why most punters lose and better informed, dispassionate bookmakers win in the long term. Of course betfair has created a different animal.

What price were Arsenal to win today?

A lot shorter than REMAIN!

Suarez just opened the scoring for Barcelona.. hardly earth shatteringly surprising, but at 10/3 it was 7% less likely in betting terms than us leaving the EU

Sean_F

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.

I'd be surprised if Dominic Raab and Andrew Selous didn't support Leave. Caroline Dinenage would be a bonus.

another_richard

Alanbrooke said:

Speedy said:

It looks like it's going to be Tory Party leadership vs Tory party.

It all comes down on how many are willing to disobey orders from the top, on an issue that if the leadership is defeated it won't threaten Tory dominance in Parliament, but it will certainly affect the horse race for next Tory leader.

As for the deal it's self, the expectations were low and the deal didn't meet them, it solves no issue and no problem, and it has no guarantees and plenty of loopholes so it probably won't be implemented either.
It is even a watered down version of the last deal that was rejected by the press and the public as an insult a few weeks ago.

There will be quite a lot of Tories wondering why they voted for the wrong person now that the inners have been outed.

I'm not sure who is more amusing:

1) PB Tories discovering the real views of the Conservative leadership.

2) The Cameron cheerleaders who emphasised protection for the City on the expectation that Cameron would get it and who have now have gone very quiet on the issue.

Alistair

Last price matched on Rubio is 2.78

Cromwell rides again.

blackburn63

isam said:

blackburn63 said:

david_herdson said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

Its an opinion. Heads v tails is evens, no outside factors. Punting is about judgement which is why most punters lose and better informed, dispassionate bookmakers win in the long term. Of course betfair has created a different animal.

What price were Arsenal to win today?

A lot shorter than REMAIN!

No flies on you Sam ;-)

Viceroy

richardDodd said:

So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.

Cameron was dragged here kicking and screaming and his renegotiation is nothing like what he promised. Not only has he destroyed this historic opportunity, he's destroyed Britain's future political capital in the EU (if we Remain) as they know our political class are pushovers.

EPG

isam said:

david_herdson said:

isam said:

One of the things that I don't think I will ever really get to grips with instantly about betting, despite doing it for a living and having worked in the game 20 odd years, is that a 9/4 shot has a 30.77% chance of winning no matter what

So if you backed Tiger Woods at his pomp for a major at 9/4 you'd think it was a likely winner

If you backed a horse in the Grand National at 9/4 it would be the most likely winner ever in the race (I think)

On the other hand, you back a cricket team in a t20 at 1/4 in running, they lose a couple of wickets and go 9/4, you think you are certain to lose

But they all have the same chance of winning whether they are favourite in a big field or outsider of two

LEAVE is 9/4.. but it seems less likely to win than Tiger Woods or that mythical Horse

For reference, Marco Rubio is best-priced at 9/4 for the GOP nomination. Is that better or worse than Leave?

The same!

Forced, I'd buy Rubio - Leave spread. Already long enough Rubio though.

MarkHopkins

https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenMP/status/701054308243140608

Speedy

MP_SE said:

Lol. Do these people really believe what they are saying:

twitter.com/ben4ipswich/status/701060118734102528

twitter.com/JustineGreening/status/701021894653435904

twitter.com/karren_brady/status/700995643121209344

Their case for remaining in the EU is one of cultural sentiment, we are all europeans sharing common destiny bla bla bla together bla bla common culture bla vote remain for the good of europe.

The problem is that the good of europe costs Britain a lot, in my opinion it's never worth paying huge amounts of money, damaging your economy and undermining your self respect and your institutions, for sentimental reasons (apart from marriage of course).

And of course the EU is not really good for europe anyway, not at it's present course and structure, by leaving the EU we will give it a necessary shock to put their act together or risk losing other members as well.

The case for Remain is one of cultural values, the case for Leave is one of economic values.

CornishBlue

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.

I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..

My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!

EPG

Viceroy said:

We're starting the campaign virtually on a 50/50 basis... a lot of people keep going back to the 1975 referendum pointing out how it swung it in favour of the elites after a huge campaign. But the world isn't like that anymore, the elites are not trusted and you could actually say are distrusted. It's a different world to back then.

A few recent examples to think about are the Scottish independence referendum and how those poll figures shifted over the campaign, the Euro 2014 Elections and more recently in America the rise of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz against the GOP establishment.

REMAIN will be delighted if LEAVE do as well as ScotLEAVE, Ukip or Ted Cruz.

Speedy

CornishBlue said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.

I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..

My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!

The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.

MaxPB

Does anyone have the relevant excerpt for the non-EMU protections to hand? I'm seriously hung over and don't want to comb through pages of bullshit to find it!

rcs1000

blackburn63 said:

Cameron is going to spend a lot of time these next few months alongside Lib Dems, Labour, Greens

We all gravitate to where we're comfortable

Is there something about you and George Galloway you wish to tell us?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Viceroy, indeed. Not only that, but he's thrown away leverage, so even if we get someone with some backbone, they'll have a much harder time of it.

Unless Cameron's still there in 2020, and Labour's led by Corbyn, I'm not sure I'll vote Conservative again whilst he's leader.

OldKingCole

Looks like the Quite Nasty Party vs the Very Nasty Party doesn’t it! Perhaps this the issue which will divide the Tories as badly as the Corn Laws did almost 200 years ago.

Alanbrooke

Viceroy said:

richardDodd said:

So there we have it..Cameron..the liar..has done what he said he would do..given us a referendum..who'd a thunk it...now all we have to do is consider the deal and then do what everybody has been screaming for...vote.

Cameron was dragged here kicking and screaming and his renegotiation is nothing like what he promised. Not only has he destroyed this historic opportunity, he's destroyed Britain's future political capital in the EU (if we Remain) as they know our political class are pushovers.

Sure, but that's been the case for years. The issue is more as Mr Dodds points out now there;s a Euref what are you going to do to win it ?

Richard_Tyndall

david_herdson said:

viewcode said:

Yorkcity said:

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.

So no, basically.

I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.


[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act

It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.

Yep. Anything other than article 50 puts us in direct breach of our treaty obligations. Something we work very hard not to do for fairly obvious reasons.

rcs1000

Speedy said:

CornishBlue said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.

I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..

My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!

The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.

Cameron might have promised, but nothing binds the hands of subsequent UK governments.

Sean_F

Speedy said:

CornishBlue said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.

I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..

My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!

The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.

That wouldn't stop a future government from holding one.

rcs1000

Richard_Tyndall said:

david_herdson said:

viewcode said:

Yorkcity said:

Is there any chance now that a narrow leave vote, could be reversed by another referendum ?
I know this has happened in the EU before.

For that to happen, the Prime Minister would have to refuse to initiate the leave process[1] and sit on his hands whilst simultaneously restarting negotiations with 27 other countries. If he tried that, the Conservative party would remove him as Prime Minister.

So no, basically.

I now refer you to other posters who will insist that this can be handwaviumed away because reasons.


[1] either by utilising the exit procedure as specified in Lisbon, or by repealing the relevantUK act

It'd be via Article 50. To go down any unilateral route would severely prejudice talks on EEA entry or a bilateral trade deal.

Yep. Anything other than article 50 puts us in direct breach of our treaty obligations. Something we work very hard not to do for fairly obvious reasons.

It would also be pretty dumb, and leave a lot of things in legal limbo.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

Does anyone have the relevant excerpt for the non-EMU protections to hand? I'm seriously hung over and don't want to comb through pages of bullshit to find it!

Still hung over at 4pm! I'm impressed

rcs1000

Speedy: what time do we get the results of the Nevada Democrat caucuses and the SC Republican primary?

Plato_Says

They'd make a great Issue team on the Justice problems - something pretty important to those irked by EU interference.

Leave really needs to focus on such stuff, and keep on for days until it sticks.

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

Ben Riley Smith
Almost entire Justice Department backs Brexit. Gove and Penning want Out. Raab, Selous, Dinenage probs likewise. Remarkable.

I'd be surprised if Dominic Raab and Andrew Selous didn't support Leave. Caroline Dinenage would be a bonus.

Richard_Tyndall

Speedy said:

CornishBlue said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

I've just had a few £ on remain 60-65% @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.

I got 6-1 on that % bracket with Ladbrokes a few weeks ago..

My guess is that we're looking at a similar result to the Scottish independence referendum, ie 45% Leave. Which would mean a similar consequence - the union is saved but the establishment is kept on their toes and a further referendum is always round the corner!

The deal forbids another referendum on the EU I think, in the event voters choose Remain.

No other way round. The deal forbids another referendum if we vote LEAVE. This is to stop the idea of vote leave, use it as a bargaining chip to get a better deal then vote again.

If we vote REMAIN there is nothing the EU can do to stop us having another referendum later.

Alanbrooke

LOL

just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme

david_herdson

CornishBlue said:

MP_SE said:

George will never be leader:

https://twitter.com/lawyers4britain/status/700964983631454208

He won't be getting my vote, for sure.

Will be interesting to see which two MPs get to the final round of 2 (for the membership to vote). Boris v May is my guess now.

I would be very surprised if the final three were Boris, Osborne and May. I could well see only one of them making it, and then not being elected.

Plato_Says

I suspect exposure on PB is slightly more likely to get opinion former attention than a single tweet thread.

Glad to see its getting the derision it deserves.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

I think the tweets underneath in response have said what needs to be said. The claim that our membership is worth £200 billion a year is so fanciful as to be laughable.

another_richard

Plato_Says said:

Any thoughts on this assertion from StrongerIn?

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get almost £10 back through trade, investment, jobs and lower prices #StrongerIn https://t.co/AbBK2o85RF

China made about $300 billion from the EU in 2015 without putting a single renminbi in.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-to-european-union