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  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    It reminds me of the 70s brain drain.

    Some of those stats are eye-watering stuff.
    LucyJones said:

    Cracking chart

    Freedom of movement. What % of each country's working age population is living in another EU country? https://t.co/4Ax7PLw96p

    Surely this can't be good news for those countries that have lost a large proportion of their younger people? Presumably, on the whole, the more educated and/or entrepreneurial people at that?

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    I'm not an economist but that's exactly what it feels like to me.
  • Sean_F said:

    Is this new news?

    Tory campaign team in London mayoral race confirm that @ZacGoldsmith will vote to leave EU #EUreferendum @BBCRadioLondon @BBCLondonNews

    Expected, but welcome nonetheless.
    Personally, he's not really my cup of tea. But I do think Zac has integrity.
    It is possible to support Remain and have integrity.
    That isn't my point. Of course it is.

    It's those who profess to be one thing, then do another, that I consider to be of questionable integrity.

    On MP recall, restraining the executive, the environment, Heathrow and his euroscepticism, Zac has practised what he preached since Day One.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Cracking chart

    Freedom of movement. What % of each country's working age population is living in another EU country? https://t.co/4Ax7PLw96p

    Amusing to see we're not last!

    It would be very interesting to see a 'country size' adjusted number. So, I suspect that Ireland and Portugal - which have very large neighbours - will always have large portions of their workforce working 'across the border'.

    It's also to interesting to see the correlation between low 'at home' unemployment, and low migration, particularly in Eastern Europe. So, the Czech Republic - where just 1.5% of the population work abroad - has 5.9% unemployment. Next door Hungary has close to 4% of its citizens working abroad, and 7.3% unemployment. But Hungarian unemployment is falling fast; it was 12% in 2012, so the bulk of migration from Hungary might be behind us. Bulgaria, by contrast, still has unemployment above 10%, suggesting there might be more outflows to come. (Albeit Bulgaria's a pretty small country, with only 7m people.)

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Just watching Nicky Morgan on Sky, she's most unnerving, she doesn't blink. It's like seeing a mannequin interviewed.
  • Just watching Nicky Morgan on Sky, she's most unnerving, she doesn't blink. It's like seeing a mannequin interviewed.

    She thinks she could be leader.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Can I just double check the eligible voters for the EU ref. It's British citizens plus Gib residents?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Rentoul thinks Cameron is toast

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html
    If Cameron wins this referendum he will be hobbled by his party. Within moments of the result, the anti-EU Tory party will be looking towards the next referendum. At some point the EU treaties will have to be rewritten and it will be hard to resist demands for another referendum. Far from settling the European question, this referendum could ensure that Europe will dominate the Tory party’s choice of Cameron’s successor. Which is at least partly why Boris Johnson is making such an extended song and dance about his fence-dismounting: he wants to be the more Eurosceptic candidate if he faces George Osborne in the vote between the final two.

    If Cameron loses the referendum, forget all his hints about staying on. His time would be over. His party would not countenance Brexit negotiations being handled by a leader who wanted to stay in. One way or the other, this is the end of his premiership: we just don’t know how or exactly when.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    tlg86 said:

    Didn't see it, but I am presuming Marr was shall we say less "confrontational" than normal. No flashing up of Bullingdon photos this time?

    No, but they did feel the need to show a picture of Farage and Galloway during the Farage interview.
    This will be a dirty dirty campaign. We have already seen it with BSE using completely made up numbers such as every family being £3000 better off.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.

    Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
    Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
    If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.

    Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Just watching Nicky Morgan on Sky, she's most unnerving, she doesn't blink. It's like seeing a mannequin interviewed.

    She thinks she could be leader.
    Not a widely shared view I should hope, she is a house-trained idiot.
  • welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    What is inflation right now? What has it been for years? Interest rates are not likely to rise much above 2% even in the long term.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Just watching Nicky Morgan on Sky, she's most unnerving, she doesn't blink. It's like seeing a mannequin interviewed.

    She thinks she could be leader.
    Murnaghan took the opportunity to bring up her opposition to gay marriage.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-35604776

    Is the BBC seriously trying to blame Sports Direct for inadequate housing?

    There was an old woman that lived in a shoe?
  • Can I just double check the eligible voters for the EU ref. It's British citizens plus Gib residents?

    Plus Irish and Commonwealth citizens.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Can I just double check the eligible voters for the EU ref. It's British citizens plus Gib residents?

    I thought it was General Election rules. So no EU citizens ( rightly so!) except the Irish with whom we have bilateral arrangements long predating the the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    LucyJones said:

    Cracking chart

    Freedom of movement. What % of each country's working age population is living in another EU country? https://t.co/4Ax7PLw96p

    Surely this can't be good news for those countries that have lost a large proportion of their younger people? Presumably, on the whole, the more educated and/or entrepreneurial people at that?

    You would think that, but the growth rates for those countries at the top of the list - the Baltics in particular - has actually been very quick. If you give me 10 minutes I'll produce you a scatter chart.

    There are two reasons why this might be the case.

    Firstly, a lot of the migrants from Poland, Estonia and the like, have left, gone to places like the UK and Germany, learnt skills, gained contacts and then returned home. I know a Polish IT bod from Goldman Sachs who spent four years here, and then returned to Krakow to set up an IT contracting business for City firms.

    Secondly, there is a natural self balancing cycle. As workers leave - say - Poland, they reduce the labour force there, which lowers unemployment and raises wages. This means workers in Poland feel more secure about their jobs, and tends to support economic growth. (As an aside, their departure lowers living costs, by reducing pressure on housing simultaneously.)

    I'd remember that the European country with the biggest brain drain in the 60s and 70s was not the UK, but Ireland. You'd think this would lower its potential growth rate and turn it into a waste land. Instead, it was by far the best performing Western economy in the 25 years from 1980, going from a GDP per had half that of the UK, to one meaningfully higher.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.

  • Why does the free-movement of labour have anything to do with "'Br'Exit": Our problem is the discriminatory rules about benefits. The EU (and do not conflate that 'leper' with 'Europe') is a [MODERATED] [MODERATED] full of [MODERATED] appointees; all unaccountable to the electorate or tax-payers.

    What is required is an ablusion-event: "Cammers" has failed. I have as much affection for the components of the 'decadent' EU as I have with the former colonies: Times change, as do events, so let us not be stuck within past paradigms!

    :unamused:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    welshowl said:

    Can I just double check the eligible voters for the EU ref. It's British citizens plus Gib residents?

    I thought it was General Election rules. So no EU citizens ( rightly so!) except the Irish with whom we have bilateral arrangements long predating the the EU.
    It is General Election rules, which means UK citizens, plus the Irish and certain Commonwealth citizens.

    So, of Europeans, the Irish get to vote and so do the Maltese.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Or the poor people in Paris just three months ago.

    Playing the terrorism card is very stupid. The chap running Europol said there's 5000 Jihadist suspects at large right now.

    How did the EU protect us here?

    It's absurd.

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.

    Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
    Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
    If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.

    Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    It's been well known, although this is the first time I recall it in action outside of Japan. It's really a combination of two of Keynes's theories that people tend to forget.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:



    Indeed. I bet they know about words like "safe space", "trigger word", "austerity", "oppression", "exploitation", "privilege", "positionality" and assorted other trendy leftist crap though :(

    Errr...I'm as lefty as most here, I think you'd agree. I've no idea what "safe space, "trigger word" or "positionality" refer to in this context. Something to do with the argument about a Rhodes statue i Oxford, you say? Even on the left, most people don't obsess about these things as much as you think.
    Maybe you are of the "new left" not the "post-new left" ;)

    http://publicautonomy.org/2014/01/27/the-rise-of-the-post-new-left-political-vocabulary/
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    For every £1 we get £10 back is my favourite so far.
    MP_SE said:

    tlg86 said:

    Didn't see it, but I am presuming Marr was shall we say less "confrontational" than normal. No flashing up of Bullingdon photos this time?

    No, but they did feel the need to show a picture of Farage and Galloway during the Farage interview.
    This will be a dirty dirty campaign. We have already seen it with BSE using completely made up numbers such as every family being £3000 better off.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    perdix said:

    Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.

    It's the way you tell them that makes them so funny.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/6961675/David-Cameron-net-immigration-will-be-capped-at-tens-of-thousands.html
  • Sean_F said:

    Is this new news?

    Tory campaign team in London mayoral race confirm that @ZacGoldsmith will vote to leave EU #EUreferendum @BBCRadioLondon @BBCLondonNews

    Expected, but welcome nonetheless.
    Personally, he's not really my cup of tea. But I do think Zac has integrity.
    I strongly disagree with much of what he says, but it does seem to me that he has a deep personal integrity that Boris, Ken and Sadiq conspicuously lack. It's for that reason alone that I'm thinking of giving him my second preference (after Benita, probably) in the mayoral election - and I'm a lifelong Labour voter.
    Wow ... he wants to Leave and all of a sudden be has got integrity. Non of this rich out of touch millionaire poncing around spewing green crap anymore.
    How strange.
  • Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.

    But most of them have 3 A's at A-level....and people wondered why Gove felt the need to tackle the blob so aggressively.
    Indeed. I bet they know about words like "safe space", "trigger word", "austerity", "oppression", "exploitation", "privilege", "positionality" and assorted other trendy leftist crap though :(
    These are the sort of comments that make PB so unappealing at times. The sheer smugness, the absolute belief that anybody who doesn't share your right wing views is thick, useless, inept, evil, or just plain wrong.
    Or possibly the view that our youth should receive a BALANCED education in which political and religious indoctrination play not part, so that they can look on the world with a mature and educated mind and form their own views. Shocking idea I know. And yet, our youth are conspicuously aware of ideas like "safe spaces", see the recent "Rhodes must fall" idiocy, and yet this survey says the vast majority don't know what a referendum is. Does this sound like a balanced education in civics to you, or possibly one leaning to the political views of the educational establishment ?

    Seriously, you have to be kidding, after all the recent blood letting in Labour and the hard-left because their members do not have sufficient ideological purity, and you have to cheek to suggest this is a right-wing characteristic ? The Corbynistas appear to be of the opinion that anyone with an imaginative view of the world that doesnt mesh with the party line is a Tory, so perhaps it is the right-wingers that have the more liberal views :smirk:

    I can say with 100% confidence that none of my children were ever taught about safe spaces and Rhodes must fall. I detected no far left plotting during their years at state school.

  • For every £1 we get £10 back is my favourite so far.

    MP_SE said:

    tlg86 said:

    Didn't see it, but I am presuming Marr was shall we say less "confrontational" than normal. No flashing up of Bullingdon photos this time?

    No, but they did feel the need to show a picture of Farage and Galloway during the Farage interview.
    This will be a dirty dirty campaign. We have already seen it with BSE using completely made up numbers such as every family being £3000 better off.
    If that were true, virtually no-one in the UK would want to Leave.

    And almost every country in the world would want to Join.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    What is inflation right now? What has it been for years? Interest rates are not likely to rise much above 2% even in the long term.
    Sadly I suspect you are right. I still think it's distorting things terribly. Essentially we are propping up housing and killing savings. I reflect on all the extra demand I could be putting into the economy if my old age saving target were effectively reduced by having 4% rather than 3% annuity rates ( to use one example ). The effect is huge. However, I shall have to Calvinistically keep on squirrelling and not go shopping. If you are reading this Mr Carney give it some thought eh?
  • Indigo said:



    You can: it's explicit in Article two, clause one of the constitution:

    The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

    That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.

    Hmm, but Article 2 doesn't stop him pardoning her before any impeachment, and it'd be hard to impeach someone who's been pardoned. Article 1 merely means nobody else can impeach, it doesn't imply they can impeach regardless.
    The interesting bit of the pardoning act is it requires an admission of guilt, which is they subsequently pardoned.

    "Yes I admit I put the lives of our security services and armed forces at risk by hosting information on human intelligence sources on ongoing operations on an insecure private email server - vote Hillary!"
    She doesn't have to phrase it like that, she'd say, "I admit our communications were improperly configured and I was technically in breach of the regulations regarding the use of email" or something. She's pretty much admitted this much already, IIUC.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    There's a very interesting split developing in the City

    The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sean_F said:

    Is this new news?

    Tory campaign team in London mayoral race confirm that @ZacGoldsmith will vote to leave EU #EUreferendum @BBCRadioLondon @BBCLondonNews

    Expected, but welcome nonetheless.
    Personally, he's not really my cup of tea. But I do think Zac has integrity.
    I strongly disagree with much of what he says, but it does seem to me that he has a deep personal integrity that Boris, Ken and Sadiq conspicuously lack. It's for that reason alone that I'm thinking of giving him my second preference (after Benita, probably) in the mayoral election - and I'm a lifelong Labour voter.
    Wow ... he wants to Leave and all of a sudden be has got integrity. Non of this rich out of touch millionaire poncing around spewing green crap anymore.
    How strange.
    He's always had integrity.

    He's never pretended to be anything other than a rich out of touch millionaire poncing about spewing green crap...
  • For every £1 we get £10 back is my favourite so far.

    MP_SE said:

    tlg86 said:

    Didn't see it, but I am presuming Marr was shall we say less "confrontational" than normal. No flashing up of Bullingdon photos this time?

    No, but they did feel the need to show a picture of Farage and Galloway during the Farage interview.
    This will be a dirty dirty campaign. We have already seen it with BSE using completely made up numbers such as every family being £3000 better off.
    Sounds like somebody has been reading the Ponzi scheme training handbook with claims like that.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Remain's arguments to the public...... 'safety'....'security'.....are just so weak.

    And that's before we get a terror outrage in Europe or a failure in the continent's rotten banking system or another million refugees.

    Its like a bad parent talking to a ten year old.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    Pro business? With Corbyn at the helm? I know he's been off grid in Rhyl this weekend at the Welsh Labour conference but he is still leader.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    edited February 2016

    Sean_F said:

    Is this new news?

    Tory campaign team in London mayoral race confirm that @ZacGoldsmith will vote to leave EU #EUreferendum @BBCRadioLondon @BBCLondonNews

    Expected, but welcome nonetheless.
    Personally, he's not really my cup of tea. But I do think Zac has integrity.
    It is possible to support Remain and have integrity.
    It certainly is - you could believe profoundly in the civilising influence of European rule as a bulwark against Anglo-Saxon capitalism and neo-imperialism; you could fundamentally mistrust the whims of the great unwashed and want democracy to exist only within circumscribed limits; you could wish for a permanent social democratic political settlement to prevent extremes of right and left from ever gaining power; you might wish that eventually, culturally, we can bury John Bull and become a cosmopolitan, civilised area of Northern Europe; you might be prepared for the UK to become poorer so that poverty elsewhere in the Union can be alleviated. Which would be a view.

    But because people who believe that are trying to ride the tiger of the voting public without actually revealing what they are working toward, instead they rely on specious nonsense about '3 million jobs', 'myth-busting about straight bananas' and 'threats to national security'. That's not integrity, it's mendacity, and it deserves to be highlighted as such.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks'

    I would agree with that. I'm in my mid-40s, does that count as younger generation?

    A lot of my contemporaries are pro-LEAVE; the experience of the european currency crises in the 1990s and subsequent EU pratfalls have created quite a negative (even contemptuous) attitude towards in the EU in my experience.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I find this intriguing stuff. Of those posting here, I'd expected the City people to be keen Remain.

    Yet they aren't. The Yes Minister caricature of bankers has moved on

    https://youtu.be/KgUemV4brDU
    Charles said:

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    There's a very interesting split developing in the City

    The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Is this new news?

    Tory campaign team in London mayoral race confirm that @ZacGoldsmith will vote to leave EU #EUreferendum @BBCRadioLondon @BBCLondonNews

    Expected, but welcome nonetheless.
    Personally, he's not really my cup of tea. But I do think Zac has integrity.
    I strongly disagree with much of what he says, but it does seem to me that he has a deep personal integrity that Boris, Ken and Sadiq conspicuously lack. It's for that reason alone that I'm thinking of giving him my second preference (after Benita, probably) in the mayoral election - and I'm a lifelong Labour voter.
    Wow ... he wants to Leave and all of a sudden be has got integrity. Non of this rich out of touch millionaire poncing around spewing green crap anymore.
    How strange.
    He's always had integrity.

    He's never pretended to be anything other than a rich out of touch millionaire poncing about spewing green crap...
    He's not out of touch, he's friends with several people who own football clubs
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    At the moment Remain seek to make Leave look insular - little Englanders dreaming of past glories, when we should be looking to Europe because that ship has sailed.

    The right message for Leave is to make Remain look insular - little Europeans dreaming of past glories, when we should be looking globally because the European ship has sailed.

    Our direction of travel on trade is to the rest of the world - a pattern shared by the Swiss as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    rcs1000 said:

    Firstly, a lot of the migrants from Poland, Estonia and the like, have left, gone to places like the UK and Germany, learnt skills, gained contacts and then returned home. I know a Polish IT bod from Goldman Sachs who spent four years here, and then returned to Krakow to set up an IT contracting business for City firms.

    Very good post. I think the dynamic involved in the above anecdote is why the EU is in some ways more self-balancing than the US. High-achievers who move away for opportunity retain more loyalty to their birthplace and have more meaningful connections with the society there which creates an environment for entrepreneurism to take hold.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Alistair Stewart
    #Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.

    But most of them have 3 A's at A-level....and people wondered why Gove felt the need to tackle the blob so aggressively.
    Indeed. I bet they know about words like "safe space", "trigger word", "austerity", "oppression", "exploitation", "privilege", "positionality" and assorted other trendy leftist crap though :(
    These are the sort of comments that make PB so unappealing at times. The sheer smugness, the absolute belief that anybody who doesn't share your right wing views is thick, useless, inept, evil, or just plain wrong.
    Or possibly the view that our youth should receive a BALANCED education in which political and religious indoctrination play not part, so that they can look on the world with a mature and educated mind and form their own views. Shocking idea I know. And yet, our youth are conspicuously aware of ideas like "safe spaces", see the recent "Rhodes must fall" idiocy, and yet this survey says the vast majority don't know what a referendum is. Does this sound like a balanced education in civics to you, or possibly one leaning to the political views of the educational establishment ?

    Seriously, you have to be kidding, after all the recent blood letting in Labour and the hard-left because their members do not have sufficient ideological purity, and you have to cheek to suggest this is a right-wing characteristic ? The Corbynistas appear to be of the opinion that anyone with an imaginative view of the world that doesnt mesh with the party line is a Tory, so perhaps it is the right-wingers that have the more liberal views :smirk:

    I can say with 100% confidence that none of my children were ever taught about safe spaces and Rhodes must fall. I detected no far left plotting during their years at state school.

    My God, you appear to live in the real world.
  • welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    Its certainly contributing to higher house prices and lower home ownership.

    But there certainly isn't any over saving and reduced demand as the household saving rate is at its lowest level on record and the current account deficit is at its highest.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=NRJS&dataset=qna&table-id=J3

    Now it could be that ZIRP is encouraging savings into BTL housing investments but that itself is deeply damaging to social and economic mobility.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    I agree 100%. I'm glad he's leading REMAIN.

    When Cameron steps down, the Tories will be in real trouble with Boris or George as leader.

    It will be a replay of the Labour party post Blair.
  • perdix said:

    Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.

    That is perhaps the funniest line anyone had written on here this morning.
  • Charles said:

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    There's a very interesting split developing in the City

    The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
    I work in Canary Wharf, but in infrastructure rather than finance.

    I think one path to victory for Leave is to paint an independent UK as being more open, free, and having far greater global trading opportunities than it does with the EU.

    Although, I'm in no illusions, that'd only win a few votes in London and the South-East. Main impact would be on opinion-formers and endorsements.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.

    Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
    Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
    If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.

    Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.

    Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.

  • Sean_F said:

    Is this new news?

    Tory campaign team in London mayoral race confirm that @ZacGoldsmith will vote to leave EU #EUreferendum @BBCRadioLondon @BBCLondonNews

    Expected, but welcome nonetheless.
    Personally, he's not really my cup of tea. But I do think Zac has integrity.
    I strongly disagree with much of what he says, but it does seem to me that he has a deep personal integrity that Boris, Ken and Sadiq conspicuously lack. It's for that reason alone that I'm thinking of giving him my second preference (after Benita, probably) in the mayoral election - and I'm a lifelong Labour voter.
    Wow ... he wants to Leave and all of a sudden be has got integrity. Non of this rich out of touch millionaire poncing around spewing green crap anymore.
    How strange.
    You obviously didn't read my post.
  • There's no poll which shows that Bush => Rubio sufficient for Rubio > Trump, while Cruz remains in the race - which he will until Super Tuesday.

    It would be a very long way back for Rubio after that.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Charles said:

    welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    It's been well known, although this is the first time I recall it in action outside of Japan. It's really a combination of two of Keynes's theories that people tend to forget.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift
    Looks like we are there to me.
  • Andrew Pierce
    'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow

    Project Fear...
    And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve.
    Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty.
    BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.

    Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    How did the EU protect us here?

    It's a barmy claim by Cameron. Free movement and no internal borders are not helping the fight against terrorism, and whilst that may not impact us as much as those Schengen area it still helps terrorists coordinate, train, and move materiel, in preparation for attacks in the UK or against UK targets within the EU.

    Generally this government has been at odds with the EU in the fight against terrorism, now it is saying that EU membership is necessary for us to do so. I don't buy it.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    chestnut said:

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    At the moment Remain seek to make Leave look insular - little Englanders dreaming of past glories, when we should be looking to Europe because that ship has sailed.

    The right message for Leave is to make Remain look insular - little Europeans dreaming of past glories, when we should be looking globally because the European ship has sailed.

    Our direction of travel on trade is to the rest of the world - a pattern shared by the Swiss as well.
    That was the essence of Gove's argument. The EU was designed in the 1950s and 1960s. an analogue union for a digital age.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016
    Indigo said:

    Rentoul thinks Cameron is toast

    If Cameron wins this referendum he will be hobbled by his party.
    As some of us had warned. Only if Cameron and Osborne ensure that they and their people operate fairly in this referendum can Cameron reduce the chances of being removed after a Remain vote. Adopting a winning at all costs approach is not their best move. So far it seems that they are more attracted to that than worrying about the state of the post referendum party.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited February 2016

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.

    Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
    Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
    If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.

    Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.

    Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.

    Might prove interesting chez Farage if German passport holders were banned from the UK!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:



    You can: it's explicit in Article two, clause one of the constitution:

    The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

    That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.

    Hmm, but Article 2 doesn't stop him pardoning her before any impeachment, and it'd be hard to impeach someone who's been pardoned. Article 1 merely means nobody else can impeach, it doesn't imply they can impeach regardless.
    The interesting bit of the pardoning act is it requires an admission of guilt, which is they subsequently pardoned.

    "Yes I admit I put the lives of our security services and armed forces at risk by hosting information on human intelligence sources on ongoing operations on an insecure private email server - vote Hillary!"
    She doesn't have to phrase it like that, she'd say, "I admit our communications were improperly configured and I was technically in breach of the regulations regarding the use of email" or something. She's pretty much admitted this much already, IIUC.
    It's also wont cut the mustard, this has nothing to do with configuration. Secure email has to be held on NSA approved servers, which won't include ones in her house whatever the configuration.

    Robert Gates, Director of the CIA under both Bush and Obama said that the “odds are pretty high” that Russia, China, and Iran had compromised Hillary’s home-brew server

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtjTAnTup0M
  • So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?
  • The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *

    * Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    perdix said:

    Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.

    That is perhaps the funniest line anyone had written on here this morning.
    Blair's lying caused the deaths of millions of people. Cameron is just an ordinary, common or garden, liar.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    taffys said:

    Remain's arguments to the public...... 'safety'....'security'.....are just so weak.

    And that's before we get a terror outrage in Europe or a failure in the continent's rotten banking system or another million refugees.

    Its like a bad parent talking to a ten year old.

    Indeed. It's ridiculous...

    How can you make "security" your top argument when the entire continent is utterly borderless and nobody has the faintest idea who is coming in and out of the place?
  • Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    Kiss of death.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    I believe he's planning to ride into London on the back of a donkey.
  • So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    He's a master of the written word.

    But, I agree, he needs to do more than that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    rcs1000 said:

    So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    I believe he's planning to ride into London on the back of a donkey.
    Poor donkey.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2016
    taffys said:

    chestnut said:

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    At the moment Remain seek to make Leave look insular - little Englanders dreaming of past glories, when we should be looking to Europe because that ship has sailed.

    The right message for Leave is to make Remain look insular - little Europeans dreaming of past glories, when we should be looking globally because the European ship has sailed.

    Our direction of travel on trade is to the rest of the world - a pattern shared by the Swiss as well.
    That was the essence of Gove's argument. The EU was designed in the 1950s and 1960s. an analogue union for a digital age.
    I agree with that completely.

    It is beyond belief that our trade and society can be heavily influenced by ten tiny European nations who do not even figure in our top 50 global trading partners.

    The EU, pre expansion, made perfect sense. A union of equals. The empire builders have lost their way.
  • Goldsmith coming out for Leave is far less of a boost for Khan than having Corbyn round his neck is a negative.

    It is worth remembering time and again that for most voters, in London or elsewhere, EU membership is not something that is a primary concern. Factors relating to it maybe, but in and of itself it is no big deal. Who cares if Goldsmith is Remain or Leave?
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    There is little point in discussing the EU referendum. It is now clear to me that REMAIN will win by a country mile (probably by 15-25%). The phone polls (far more reliable than the self-selected on line polls) are showing a clear (>10%) lead for REMAIN. The only politicians who have come out in favour of LEAVE are a ragbag of political misfits (e.g. Carswell, Coburn, Farage, Field, Galloway, Gove, Grayling, Hoey). Business leaders, the establishment and most of the press (barring the Express and Mail) all support REMAIN.

    The POTUS race (the subject of this thread) is more intriguing. Will Trump be the GOP candidate and would he beat Clinton? Sanders is now unlikely to be the Democratic candidate and even if he were chosen, there is 0% chance of the US electorate choosing a Judeo-Bolshevist.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited February 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    I believe he's planning to ride into London on the back of a donkey.
    thought Bristol was the place for that type of caper?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    Andrew Pierce
    'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow

    Project Fear...
    And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve.
    Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty.
    BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.

    Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
    Your argument here seems to be that the EU somehow prevents those stupid British voters from electing crazy mavericks.

    Not only is it not true, its deeply patronising and insulting. But hey, you think the voters won;t see through it. And for the moment, the polls would seem to back you up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *

    * Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....

    The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?

    By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.

    It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
  • rcs1000 said:

    So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    I believe he's planning to ride into London on the back of a donkey.
    He's going to be riding Nigel Farage?

    Oh God, that's not an image I wanted, ever.
  • Indigo said:

    Indigo said:



    You can: it's explicit in Article two, clause one of the constitution:

    The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

    That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.

    Hmm, but Article 2 doesn't stop him pardoning her before any impeachment, and it'd be hard to impeach someone who's been pardoned. Article 1 merely means nobody else can impeach, it doesn't imply they can impeach regardless.
    The interesting bit of the pardoning act is it requires an admission of guilt, which is they subsequently pardoned.

    "Yes I admit I put the lives of our security services and armed forces at risk by hosting information on human intelligence sources on ongoing operations on an insecure private email server - vote Hillary!"
    She doesn't have to phrase it like that, she'd say, "I admit our communications were improperly configured and I was technically in breach of the regulations regarding the use of email" or something. She's pretty much admitted this much already, IIUC.
    It's also wont cut the mustard, this has nothing to do with configuration. Secure email has to be held on NSA approved servers, which won't include ones in her house whatever the configuration.

    Robert Gates, Director of the CIA under both Bush and Obama said that the “odds are pretty high” that Russia, China, and Iran had compromised Hillary’s home-brew server

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtjTAnTup0M
    I'm not talking about reality, I'm talking about the line she can take. As far as I'm concerned deliberately ignoring the IT security policy disqualifies you from any management-level position let alone president, but luckily for her Tokyo-based British people who write IT security policies aren't her most important electoral demographic.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    @Rcs1000 http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/voting-and-registration/who-is-eligible-to-vote-at-a-uk-general-election

    It's frying brains on Twitter as it's being interpreted as those living in any of these countries too.
  • perdix said:

    Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.

    That is perhaps the funniest line anyone had written on here this morning.
    "paying down Britain's debts"
    "halved the bill"
    "70,000 strong moderate army"
    "reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands"

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    GIN1138 said:

    taffys said:

    Remain's arguments to the public...... 'safety'....'security'.....are just so weak.

    And that's before we get a terror outrage in Europe or a failure in the continent's rotten banking system or another million refugees.

    Its like a bad parent talking to a ten year old.

    Indeed. It's ridiculous...

    How can you make "security" your top argument when the entire continent is utterly borderless and nobody has the faintest idea who is coming in and out of the place?
    Laura Sandys came out with the incredible comment last night on C4 'I don;t want to see my continent ruled by other people'.

    ????
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2016

    Andrew Pierce
    'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow

    Project Fear...
    And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve.
    Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty.
    BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.

    Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
    You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.

    That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.

    Apparently, this highly publicised restriction on sending out child benefits apply to 34000 children only and the annual cost is £30m.
    This has been done only to "prove" that we are "tough" on immigrants by penalising children !

    We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ?
    Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?

    Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    welshowl said:

    Charles said:

    welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    It's been well known, although this is the first time I recall it in action outside of Japan. It's really a combination of two of Keynes's theories that people tend to forget.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift
    Looks like we are there to me.
    The best description I heard of the liquidity trap from back when I was at school - ZIRP is like "pushing on a piece of string"
  • rcs1000 said:

    LucyJones said:

    Cracking chart

    Freedom of movement. What % of each country's working age population is living in another EU country? https://t.co/4Ax7PLw96p

    Surely this can't be good news for those countries that have lost a large proportion of their younger people? Presumably, on the whole, the more educated and/or entrepreneurial people at that?

    You would think that, but the growth rates for those countries at the top of the list - the Baltics in particular - has actually been very quick. If you give me 10 minutes I'll produce you a scatter chart.

    There are two reasons why this might be the case.

    Firstly, a lot of the migrants from Poland, Estonia and the like, have left, gone to places like the UK and Germany, learnt skills, gained contacts and then returned home. I know a Polish IT bod from Goldman Sachs who spent four years here, and then returned to Krakow to set up an IT contracting business for City firms.

    Secondly, there is a natural self balancing cycle. As workers leave - say - Poland, they reduce the labour force there, which lowers unemployment and raises wages. This means workers in Poland feel more secure about their jobs, and tends to support economic growth. (As an aside, their departure lowers living costs, by reducing pressure on housing simultaneously.)

    I'd remember that the European country with the biggest brain drain in the 60s and 70s was not the UK, but Ireland. You'd think this would lower its potential growth rate and turn it into a waste land. Instead, it was by far the best performing Western economy in the 25 years from 1980, going from a GDP per had half that of the UK, to one meaningfully higher.
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    Is not part of the reason for the high growth rates in the Balkans the fact that they were starting from such a low base and so 10% of not very much is still not actually all that much?

    I also wonder how many of the people who leave their own country with the intention of it being a temporary event - perhaps to save up enough to buy a home or set up a business - nevertheless end up settling in their destination country? Again, it is anecdotal, but I know of a few people who intended to come to the UK for maybe 3-5 years, but who have ended up staying after meeting a partner here and having children who have settled at school etc. And when they go back "home", they often find their old friends have all left for pastures new, just as they did and so it loses its attraction.
  • rcs1000 said:

    So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    I believe he's planning to ride into London on the back of a donkey.
    He's going to be riding Nigel Farage?

    Oh God, that's not an image I wanted, ever.
    Surely, it would be on Galloway?

    "Now, would you like me.. to be the cat?"
  • So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    Boris will be doing what he believes is best for Boris. The Telegraph is a good place from which to address the voters whose support he needs to replace Dave. Presumably, though, even Conservative party members will have noticed his calculation and failure to take a principled stand.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    LucyJones said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LucyJones said:

    Cracking chart

    Freedom of movement. What % of each country's working age population is living in another EU country? https://t.co/4Ax7PLw96p

    Surely this can't be good news for those countries that have lost a large proportion of their younger people? Presumably, on the whole, the more educated and/or entrepreneurial people at that?

    You would think that, but the growth rates for those countries at the top of the list - the Baltics in particular - has actually been very quick. If you give me 10 minutes I'll produce you a scatter chart.

    There are two reasons why this might be the case.

    Firstly, a lot of the migrants from Poland, Estonia and the like, have left, gone to places like the UK and Germany, learnt skills, gained contacts and then returned home. I know a Polish IT bod from Goldman Sachs who spent four years here, and then returned to Krakow to set up an IT contracting business for City firms.

    Secondly, there is a natural self balancing cycle. As workers leave - say - Poland, they reduce the labour force there, which lowers unemployment and raises wages. This means workers in Poland feel more secure about their jobs, and tends to support economic growth. (As an aside, their departure lowers living costs, by reducing pressure on housing simultaneously.)

    I'd remember that the European country with the biggest brain drain in the 60s and 70s was not the UK, but Ireland. You'd think this would lower its potential growth rate and turn it into a waste land. Instead, it was by far the best performing Western economy in the 25 years from 1980, going from a GDP per had half that of the UK, to one meaningfully higher.
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    Is not part of the reason for the high growth rates in the Balkans the fact that they were starting from such a low base and so 10% of not very much is still not actually all that much?

    I also wonder how many of the people who leave their own country with the intention of it being a temporary event - perhaps to save up enough to buy a home or set up a business - nevertheless end up settling in their destination country? Again, it is anecdotal, but I know of a few people who intended to come to the UK for maybe 3-5 years, but who have ended up staying after meeting a partner here and having children who have settled at school etc. And when they go back "home", they often find their old friends have all left for pastures new, just as they did and so it loses its attraction.
    Baltics! Not Balkans
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    @Rcs1000 http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/voting-and-registration/who-is-eligible-to-vote-at-a-uk-general-election

    It's frying brains on Twitter as it's being interpreted as those living in any of these countries too.

    I found it somewhat amusing that Cameroon is a listed Commonwealth country. Remain getting out the Cameroon vote, anyone?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Why does Cameron want to link arms with Corbyn and Mcdonnell to remain in the EU?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Goldsmith coming out for Leave is far less of a boost for Khan than having Corbyn round his neck is a negative.

    It is worth remembering time and again that for most voters, in London or elsewhere, EU membership is not something that is a primary concern. Factors relating to it maybe, but in and of itself it is no big deal. Who cares if Goldsmith is Remain or Leave?

    Surely it's a play for second preferences / to energise Tory activists.

    Or it may just be what he believes in...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :wink:


    Why does Cameron want to link arms with Corbyn and Mcdonnell to remain in the EU?

  • rcs1000 said:

    So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    I believe he's planning to ride into London on the back of a donkey.
    He's going to be riding Nigel Farage?

    Oh God, that's not an image I wanted, ever.
    Surely, it would be on Galloway?

    "Now, would you like me.. to be the cat?"
    Have a bit more respect for Grassroots Out's top guest.
  • Charles said:

    welshowl said:

    Charles said:

    welshowl said:

    chestnut said:

    10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics.
    BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership.
    The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.

    A house price collapse?

    Much cheaper houses?

    Terrible news for people who want to buy.

    0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
    Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
    It's been well known, although this is the first time I recall it in action outside of Japan. It's really a combination of two of Keynes's theories that people tend to forget.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift
    Looks like we are there to me.
    The best description I heard of the liquidity trap from back when I was at school - ZIRP is like "pushing on a piece of string"
    I think thats a Keynes quote. The answer to the problem was fiscal stimulus. :))
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Indigo said:

    Rentoul thinks Cameron is toast

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-cameron-is-finished-whatever-happens-in-the-eu-referendum-a6886361.html

    If Cameron wins this referendum he will be hobbled by his party. Within moments of the result, the anti-EU Tory party will be looking towards the next referendum. At some point the EU treaties will have to be rewritten and it will be hard to resist demands for another referendum. Far from settling the European question, this referendum could ensure that Europe will dominate the Tory party’s choice of Cameron’s successor. Which is at least partly why Boris Johnson is making such an extended song and dance about his fence-dismounting: he wants to be the more Eurosceptic candidate if he faces George Osborne in the vote between the final two.

    If Cameron loses the referendum, forget all his hints about staying on. His time would be over. His party would not countenance Brexit negotiations being handled by a leader who wanted to stay in. One way or the other, this is the end of his premiership: we just don’t know how or exactly when.
    He was already going even if he won, I still don't understand what revelation rentoul thinks he has had on this - he's wrong that Cameron called things incorrectly, as a big split was inevitable, he just didn't reduce it as much as he wanted. It was not in Cameron's power to settle the divide in his party.

    It does show how fair weather some of his supporters have Been though. Praised to the hills, a bit too much, for winning the ge as though the incoming criticism over Europe would not have happened regardless - only the scale was variable.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited February 2016
    surbiton said:

    Andrew Pierce
    'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow

    Project Fear...
    And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve.
    Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty.
    BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.

    Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
    You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.

    That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.

    We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ?
    Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?

    Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
    You make some excellent points, but I don;t see it anywhere in Leave's manifesto that this will be stopped.

    The point is control. People feel this situation, which is life changing for many, has been imposed upon them. They have never been asked, and its about time they were.

    Who magically educates the children of these fruit pickers to a high standard? who treats their illnesses for free? who magically subsidises their wages? The tax payer.

    Polish politicians are openly boasting about having protected British social benefits for their citizens.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786


    Why does Cameron want to link arms with Corbyn and Mcdonnell to remain in the EU?

    Fox on Sky just used the same line but replaced McDonnell with Nicola Sturgeon, adding, "It's not a pretty picture."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Goldsmith coming out for Leave is far less of a boost for Khan than having Corbyn round his neck is a negative.

    It is worth remembering time and again that for most voters, in London or elsewhere, EU membership is not something that is a primary concern. Factors relating to it maybe, but in and of itself it is no big deal. Who cares if Goldsmith is Remain or Leave?

    I suspect Leave is going to do surprisingly well in London's outer doughnut. The area that voted strongly for Boris, and will vote strongly for Zac.
  • perdix said:

    Roger said:

    I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.

    He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.

    Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.

    That is perhaps the funniest line anyone had written on here this morning.
    "paying down Britain's debts"
    "halved the bill"
    "70,000 strong moderate army"
    "reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands"

    "Massive return of power to UK"
  • welshowl said:

    Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.

    Pro business? With Corbyn at the helm? I know he's been off grid in Rhyl this weekend at the Welsh Labour conference but he is still leader.
    Actually he was in Llandudno
  • Charles said:

    Goldsmith coming out for Leave is far less of a boost for Khan than having Corbyn round his neck is a negative.

    It is worth remembering time and again that for most voters, in London or elsewhere, EU membership is not something that is a primary concern. Factors relating to it maybe, but in and of itself it is no big deal. Who cares if Goldsmith is Remain or Leave?

    Surely it's a play for second preferences / to energise Tory activists.

    Or it may just be what he believes in...
    Goldsmith has made "out" statements in the past. I expect London to vote Remain, therefore Goldsmith's move is more to do with principle than politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    rcs1000 said:

    So I haven't been following the referendum story very closely but if Boris is really going to back "leave", why is he announcing in an article in the Telegraph instead of doing a dramatic press conference on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral or whatever?

    I believe he's planning to ride into London on the back of a donkey.
    thought Bristol was the place for that type of caper?
    Didn't the last guy to do that get tortured! Granted, this was some while ago unless there's been multiple incidents I was unaware of.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *

    * Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....

    The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?

    By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.

    It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
    Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
This discussion has been closed.