I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
That is perhaps the funniest line anyone had written on here this morning.
Blair's lying caused the deaths of millions of people. Cameron is just an ordinary, common or garden, liar.
Oh indeed. I was just laughing at the idea there is someone out there who thinks Cameron tells the truth.
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
You may be right although you overstate your case. However the systems are perfectly viable if operated properly. Any system would be flawed, all systems are. I do not see how you can blame Bretton Woods for the US sub prime lending crisis or the stupidity of various other banks for accepting their debts all bundled up as special purpose vehicles. Rather it would be nice if society could evolve to take people out of their sub prime status .
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.
Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.
Would definitely be case under bilateral trade deal if you mean automatic rights.
Freedom of movement. What % of each country's working age population is living in another EU country? https://t.co/4Ax7PLw96p
Surely this can't be good news for those countries that have lost a large proportion of their younger people? Presumably, on the whole, the more educated and/or entrepreneurial people at that?
You would think that, but the growth rates for those countries at the top of the list - the Baltics in particular - has actually been very quick. If you give me 10 minutes I'll produce you a scatter chart.
There are two reasons why this might be the case.
Firstly, a lot of the migrants from Poland, Estonia and the like, have left, gone to places like the UK and Germany, learnt skills, gained contacts and then returned home. I know a Polish IT bod from Goldman Sachs who spent four years here, and then returned to Krakow to set up an IT contracting business for City firms.
Secondly, there is a natural self balancing cycle. As workers leave - say - Poland, they reduce the labour force there, which lowers unemployment and raises wages. This means workers in Poland feel more secure about their jobs, and tends to support economic growth. (As an aside, their departure lowers living costs, by reducing pressure on housing simultaneously.)
I'd remember that the European country with the biggest brain drain in the 60s and 70s was not the UK, but Ireland. You'd think this would lower its potential growth rate and turn it into a waste land. Instead, it was by far the best performing Western economy in the 25 years from 1980, going from a GDP per had half that of the UK, to one meaningfully higher.
Thanks, that's very interesting.
Is not part of the reason for the high growth rates in the Balkans the fact that they were starting from such a low base and so 10% of not very much is still not actually all that much?
I also wonder how many of the people who leave their own country with the intention of it being a temporary event - perhaps to save up enough to buy a home or set up a business - nevertheless end up settling in their destination country? Again, it is anecdotal, but I know of a few people who intended to come to the UK for maybe 3-5 years, but who have ended up staying after meeting a partner here and having children who have settled at school etc. And when they go back "home", they often find their old friends have all left for pastures new, just as they did and so it loses its attraction.
Baltics! Not Balkans
Sorry - that was a typo. I knew what you meant (and what I meant)!
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
You make some excellent points, but I don;t see it anywhere in Leave's manifesto that this will be stopped.
The point is control. People feel this situation, which is life changing for many, has been imposed upon them. They have never been asked, and its about time they were.
Who magically educates the children of these fruit pickers to a high standard? who treats their illnesses for free? who magically subsidises their wages? The tax payer.
Polish politicians are openly boasting about having protected British social benefits for their citizens.
They would. They pay taxes [ if allowed to do so ]
I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
It's the way you tell them that makes them so funny.
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's a myth that the gold standard or other fixed rate systems didn't suffer financial and credit crises- I'm sure you know that
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
The over supply of labour doesn't just suppress hourly rates, it also suppresses the total number of hours available to individual workers as they are distributed among a bigger group.
If there are 40 hours work available and they are taken by one employee they have a full time wage and much lower need for support.
If a second worker is added and they split the 40 hours, both have only part time earnings and both require support.
Workers need a monopoly on skills and supply to improve their hand in securing a better return for their labour.
The EU driven over-supply of labour undermines the domestic worker.
On migration, I know of lot of people who have moved between countries (including myself). The primary characteristic is a fundamental willingness to think about it and be open-minded about doing it again - few people nowadays would hesitate to move from, say, Manchester to Sheffield to get a better job, and voluntary migration types feel the same about going to another country. Once you're there, as Lucy notes, reasons arise why you might want to stay, but they're rarely absolutely decisive. Spouses are often up for a move as well.
The big pull factor for people who've come from Eastern Europe and made a bit of money to go home is simply that you can get far more for the money there. Even going to Germany you can get a massive bargain if you want to buy a house, compared with most parts of England. Coupled with the affinity of language and culture, it's tempting.
And yet, as Lucy notes, when you go back on holiday to see family you find it's not quite as compatible as you remember. You've been exposed to other cultures, and you hear people who don't know them say they're rubbish and only your country is worth living in. And you wonder, is it really your home any more?
People make different decision, and some will go back, especially when they reach retirement age. But I'd guess that the majority won't.
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.
Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.
Would definitely be case under bilateral trade deal if you mean automatic rights.
Nope. Any deal would still allow German passport holders to come to the UK without needing a visa. Their may be restrictions relating to settlement, but those about to commit acts of terrorism are unlikely to be too worried about following such rules. One they're in, they're in.
There's no poll which shows that Bush => Rubio sufficient for Rubio > Trump, while Cruz remains in the race - which he will until Super Tuesday.
It would be a very long way back for Rubio after that.
Considering that at the moment, Trump outpolls Cruz and Rubio combined, then the reallocation of Bush's votes does nothing to the top line.
Besides, I can see Bush's 6% splitting fairly evenly between Kasich, Rubio and Trump, doing little to the race overall.
South Carolina and New Hampshire with their more moderate and military-veteran minded voters were about as good as it gets for Bush. There are some very old polls where he is doing ok, but I think Trump has eaten all of his vote.
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
You misunderstand the nature of Bretton Woods.
Bretton Woods tied everything to gold. This meant that as imbalances built up, then gold physically moved around the vaults in New York. If your balance was getting low, then you were running a current account deficit, and you needed to rectify your policies (raising interest rates, etc.) to prevent actually seeing your balance exhausted.
This made it very, very different to the Eurozone.
By leaving a system built around gold, we allowed dislocations to grow and grow and grow. When your actions are constrained by your stock of gold, you can't have a situation - like that of Greece of Spain's prior to the Eurozone crisis - where you ran up 10-15% of GDP current account deficits. Simply, you would have run out of gold.
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's a myth that the gold standard or other fixed rate systems didn't suffer financial and credit crises- I'm sure you know that
Of course. Both systems have crisis - as I wrote - it is just that the nature of them is different. My view is that our system results in less frequent (but much bigger) ones.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Goldsmith coming out for Leave is far less of a boost for Khan than having Corbyn round his neck is a negative.
It is worth remembering time and again that for most voters, in London or elsewhere, EU membership is not something that is a primary concern. Factors relating to it maybe, but in and of itself it is no big deal. Who cares if Goldsmith is Remain or Leave?
Surely it's a play for second preferences / to energise Tory activists.
Or it may just be what he believes in...
I suspect that like his Dad Goldsmith is just opposed to our EU membership. He's another Tory politician whose principles are guiding him on this. In fact, there only seems to be one who even now can't quite commit to saying what he thinks! Indeed, has any politician from any of the major parties - Boris excluded - yet to come off the fence?
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.
Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.
Would definitely be case under bilateral trade deal if you mean automatic rights.
Nope. Any deal would still allow German passport holders to come to the UK without needing a visa. Their may be restrictions relating to settlement, but those about to commit acts of terrorism are unlikely to be too worried about following such rules. One they're in, they're in.
Except that if we had concerns about them, we could kick them out.
There's no poll which shows that Bush => Rubio sufficient for Rubio > Trump, while Cruz remains in the race - which he will until Super Tuesday.
It would be a very long way back for Rubio after that.
Considering that at the moment, Trump outpolls Cruz and Rubio combined, then the reallocation of Bush's votes does nothing to the top line.
Besides, I can see Bush's 6% splitting fairly evenly between Kasich, Rubio and Trump, doing little to the race overall.
South Carolina and New Hampshire with their more moderate and military-veteran minded voters were about as good as it gets for Bush. There are some very old polls where he is doing ok, but I think Trump has eaten all of his vote.
Yes. The HuffPost average still had him at 6.3% last week but as with other candidates who've withdrawn, I wouldn't anticipate a spike to appear on any other line in response; he'll just fade away.
If Cameron wins this referendum he will be hobbled by his party.
As some of us had warned. Only if Cameron and Osborne ensure that they and their people operate fairly in this referendum can Cameron reduce the chances of being removed after a Remain vote. Adopting a winning at all costs approach is not their best move. So far it seems that they are more attracted to that than worrying about the state of the post referendum party.
Cameron is retiring anyway. If Remain were to win then the assumption is strangely that the Tories will chose a leader who would be at odds with the majority of the country, in essence that they would go down the comfort zone route of Corbyn's Labour. To do so would undo over a decade of movement to a centre position attractive to producing a majority even allowing for fruit loop kippers. Why would the Tory party want to regress to a position of being one of two ferrets in a sack alongside ukip?
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.
Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.
Would definitely be case under bilateral trade deal if you mean automatic rights.
Nope. Any deal would still allow German passport holders to come to the UK without needing a visa. Their may be restrictions relating to settlement, but those about to commit acts of terrorism are unlikely to be too worried about following such rules. One they're in, they're in.
Except that if we had concerns about them, we could kick them out.
Big difference.
We can detain them and exclude them now. It happens regularly to EU citizens.
On migration, I know of lot of people who have moved between countries (including myself). The primary characteristic is a fundamental willingness to think about it and be open-minded about doing it again - few people nowadays would hesitate to move from, say, Manchester to Sheffield to get a better job, and voluntary migration types feel the same about going to another country. Once you're there, as Lucy notes, reasons arise why you might want to stay, but they're rarely absolutely decisive. Spouses are often up for a move as well.
The big pull factor for people who've come from Eastern Europe and made a bit of money to go home is simply that you can get far more for the money there. Even going to Germany you can get a massive bargain if you want to buy a house, compared with most parts of England. Coupled with the affinity of language and culture, it's tempting.
And yet, as Lucy notes, when you go back on holiday to see family you find it's not quite as compatible as you remember. You've been exposed to other cultures, and you hear people who don't know them say they're rubbish and only your country is worth living in. And you wonder, is it really your home any more?
People make different decision, and some will go back, especially when they reach retirement age. But I'd guess that the majority won't.
There’s another aspect to the employment of migrants who will work for lower rates than locals, especially in a country like the UK where multinational companies ensure profits are taxed at the ;lowest rate, or none at all. The employment of workers at lower rates, while maintaining prices, enables an increase in profits, which, as I say, are taxed (or not) elsewhere. There are one or two household names I could name, but ........
Listening to the various 'vote leave' conservatives on the media this am they are all complimentary to David Cameron, courteous, and emphasise there will be no fall out within the party
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
Sharing the same currency is not the same as a currency peg.
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
Apparently, this highly publicised restriction on sending out child benefits apply to 34000 children only and the annual cost is £30m. This has been done only to "prove" that we are "tough" on immigrants by penalising children !
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
I see the Kingston & Surbiton Labour party now support a 'competitive wage' rather than a 'living wage'.
Underlying this mindset is the take it from them (the working class) and give it to me (the rich) mentality.
Listening to the various 'vote leave' conservatives on the media this am they are all complimentary to David Cameron, courteous, and emphasise there will be no fall out within the party
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.
Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.
Would definitely be case under bilateral trade deal if you mean automatic rights.
Nope. Any deal would still allow German passport holders to come to the UK without needing a visa. Their may be restrictions relating to settlement, but those about to commit acts of terrorism are unlikely to be too worried about following such rules. One they're in, they're in.
Except that if we had concerns about them, we could kick them out.
Big difference.
We can detain them and exclude them now. It happens regularly to EU citizens.
We will have far more control as an independent country, than as part of the the EU, no matter what trade deal we agree.
I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
It's the way you tell them that makes them so funny.
If Cameron wins this referendum he will be hobbled by his party. Within moments of the result, the anti-EU Tory party will be looking towards the next referendum. At some point the EU treaties will have to be rewritten and it will be hard to resist demands for another referendum. Far from settling the European question, this referendum could ensure that Europe will dominate the Tory party’s choice of Cameron’s successor. Which is at least partly why Boris Johnson is making such an extended song and dance about his fence-dismounting: he wants to be the more Eurosceptic candidate if he faces George Osborne in the vote between the final two.
If Cameron loses the referendum, forget all his hints about staying on. His time would be over. His party would not countenance Brexit negotiations being handled by a leader who wanted to stay in. One way or the other, this is the end of his premiership: we just don’t know how or exactly when.
He was already going even if he won, I still don't understand what revelation rentoul thinks he has had on this - he's wrong that Cameron called things incorrectly, as a big split was inevitable, he just didn't reduce it as much as he wanted. It was not in Cameron's power to settle the divide in his party.
It does show how fair weather some of his supporters have Been though. Praised to the hills, a bit too much, for winning the ge as though the incoming criticism over Europe would not have happened regardless - only the scale was variable.
Cameron did his party a great favour. The referendum by the end of 2017 effectively kicked the "EU time bomb" to this side of the election. While Cameron was not to know at the time, this also enabled his party to win a majority.
You are correct. The bloodletting would have happened anyway. On Europe, the Conservatives are two parties; the Provincial Tories and the Metropolitan Tories. There are simply more of them who live in the Sticks !
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
Pro business? With Corbyn at the helm? I know he's been off grid in Rhyl this weekend at the Welsh Labour conference but he is still leader.
Even if Boris runs with Leave, I wouldn't vote for him as leader.
We will have to treat Boris's role in Leave (if that is indeed how he jumps off the fence) as an extended job interview. Time to park the buffoon - and show us he has a measured, calculating statesman in him...
I can fully understand though why some will be looking through their fingers from behind the sofa.
I noted that a comment was made from Northern Ireland that as they are 3 to 1 in favour of the EU and also 81% of business Teresa Villiers must resign her position in the cabinet. Interesting comment
10-11 for Hillary looks the bet now she's halted Bernie's rise.GOP conservatives still see Rubio is their best shot as they believe,mistakenly,he will hit the 35% target of the Hispanic vote.He won't because the main Spanish speaking media are in opposition to him.Neither Rubio nor Trump will land a blow-it's all down to the demographics. BTW.The 5-1 is still on offer for the 60-65% Remain band.Whatever,Boris Johnson does he will have backed the wrong horse.A cynical manipulator if he goes Leave,a coward of he goes Remain.He's still a lay for the Tory leadership. The risks of Leave will be the persuasive factor and there is always bias to the status-quo.Golden Sachs reckoned there would be a run on the pound if #Brexit which would reduce by 20%.This could lead to mortgages trebling and house prices crashing.A run on the pound could cause our feeble economy to completely collapse.
A house price collapse?
Much cheaper houses?
Terrible news for people who want to buy.
0% interest rates continue to push the over-valuation of property.
Indeed effectively 0% rates are bending all kinds of asset prices way out of shape. I wonder if future economists will determine this 0% fetish has all been a hideous error, forcing millions to "over" save due to ultra low yields on just about anything, and thereby reducing demand. Just a thought. Has the old orthodoxy of lower interest rates stimulating demand (and vice versa) been found out to be wrong at the unprecedented levels we have been at for so long now?
It's been well known, although this is the first time I recall it in action outside of Japan. It's really a combination of two of Keynes's theories that people tend to forget.
I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
It's the way you tell them that makes them so funny.
And I believe that will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade.
Yes, Britain will always be open to the best and brightest from around the world and those fleeing persecution.
But with us, our borders will be under control and immigration will be at levels our country can manage.
No ifs. No buts.
That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping.
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
Apparently, this highly publicised restriction on sending out child benefits apply to 34000 children only and the annual cost is £30m. This has been done only to "prove" that we are "tough" on immigrants by penalising children !
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
I see the Kingston & Surbiton Labour party now support a 'competitive wage' rather than a 'living wage'.
Underlying this mindset is the take it from them (the working class) and give it to me (the rich) mentality.
Higher prices are not good for the lower paid. But a living wage is a competitive wage for any business that exists on its own merits and not as the result of government subsidy.
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
Apparently, this highly publicised restriction on sending out child benefits apply to 34000 children only and the annual cost is £30m. This has been done only to "prove" that we are "tough" on immigrants by penalising children !
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
I see the Kingston & Surbiton Labour party now support a 'competitive wage' rather than a 'living wage'.
Underlying this mindset is the take it from them (the working class) and give it to me (the rich) mentality.
Don't try to be so funny. It does not suit you. OK, living wage then. You win. BTW, I have not attended a single meeting of the K&SLP ever. Attended a Christmas Party once. Nice people. They all support the living wage.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
Pro business? With Corbyn at the helm? I know he's been off grid in Rhyl this weekend at the Welsh Labour conference but he is still leader.
Even if Boris runs with Leave, I wouldn't vote for him as leader.
We will have to treat Boris's role in Leave (if that is indeed how he jumps off the fence) as an extended job interview. Time to park the buffoon - and show us he has a measured, calculating statesman in him...
I can fully understand though why some will be looking through their fingers from behind the sofa.
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
The over supply of labour doesn't just suppress hourly rates, it also suppresses the total number of hours available to individual workers as they are distributed among a bigger group.
If there are 40 hours work available and they are taken by one employee they have a full time wage and much lower need for support.
If a second worker is added and they split the 40 hours, both have only part time earnings and both require support.
Workers need a monopoly on skills and supply to improve their hand in securing a better return for their labour.
The EU driven over-supply of labour undermines the domestic worker.
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
Apparently, this highly publicised restriction on sending out child benefits apply to 34000 children only and the annual cost is £30m. This has been done only to "prove" that we are "tough" on immigrants by penalising children !
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
I see the Kingston & Surbiton Labour party now support a 'competitive wage' rather than a 'living wage'.
Underlying this mindset is the take it from them (the working class) and give it to me (the rich) mentality.
Higher prices are not good for the lower paid. But a living wage is a competitive wage for any business that exists on its own merits and not as the result of government subsidy.
As usual, Southam is far more lucid than I ever could be.
I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
That is perhaps the funniest line anyone had written on here this morning.
Blair's lying caused the deaths of millions of people.
For those wondering why Zac thinks he can come out against the EU and still win London, it is worth reading the Open Europe briefing sent out this morning on the Cameron deal.
They jump right in with the protection of the City:
"What have EU leaders agreed?
A set of principles which outline that those outside the Eurozone/Banking Union should not be discriminated against, will not participate in Eurozone bailouts, can keep their own financial supervision/macro prudential regulation and will have visibility on all pertinent Eurozone talks.
Specifically, the text mentions the prospect of “specific provisions within the single rulebook” for financial institutions, which opens the door to differentiation between those inside and outside the banking union on bank regulation.
A mechanism to enforce these principles whereby, if any single member outside the banking union believes any of said principles are being overridden by a certain piece of legislation, it can request further discussion of the issue. The rotating Presidency of the Council of Ministers will then seek to find an agreement that takes account of the member state’s concerns. This can include triggering a discussion at the level of the European Council. However, this process will take place “without prejudice to the specific voting arrangements” previously agreed, meaning that the legislation can ultimately continue even if consensus is not found."
Note the last part of that final sentence. We do not have any special protection for the city at all. What Cameron has won is the right for us to say we don't like something and then be ignored as it is passed anyway.
Listening to the various 'vote leave' conservatives on the media this am they are all complimentary to David Cameron, courteous, and emphasise there will be no fall out within the party
Even if Boris runs with Leave, I wouldn't vote for him as leader.
We will have to treat Boris's role in Leave (if that is indeed how he jumps off the fence) as an extended job interview. Time to park the buffoon - and show us he has a measured, calculating statesman in him...
I can fully understand though why some will be looking through their fingers from behind the sofa.
I do not understand why does he have to wait until this evening or his newspaper article. It is all about HIM.
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
Cameron would be the last person I'd be worrying about in the event of any attack.
Well quite. But he's linked our ability to stop terrorism to our membership of the EU. I suppose all of those countries not in the EU are more at risk...
If Cameron is going to play the terrorism scare card, its pretty low politics but Leave can respond in kind. Just point out there are a whole bunch of IS supporters in Germany who will get German passports and come to the UK if we stay in the EU.
Would much rather we have a cerebral debate but Cameron is already playing in gutter with jungle camps in Kent so Leave shouldnot be squeamish. They can defeat this security argument head on.
Only if leaving the EU puts an end to German passport holders being able to come to the UK. I doubt that will be the case.
Would definitely be case under bilateral trade deal if you mean automatic rights.
Nope. Any deal would still allow German passport holders to come to the UK without needing a visa. Their may be restrictions relating to settlement, but those about to commit acts of terrorism are unlikely to be too worried about following such rules. One they're in, they're in.
Except that if we had concerns about them, we could kick them out.
Big difference.
We can detain them and exclude them now. It happens regularly to EU citizens.
Only if you have specific information. You can't do one by one visa checks for each coming here to reside.
Anyway, you can pick holes in Cameron's national security argument. We have closer cooperation with USA and Canada on terrorism than we do with France and Germany. But it doesn't matter all that much because Cameron just wants to muddy the waters enough that there is a terrorism worry associated with Leave. Thats why out campaign need to muddy waters enough with the open borders to German Syrians/Iraqis/Afghans argument.
Personally think whole terrorism thing is overblown. People should worry more about car accidents. But Cameron will win this referendum if Leave don't come out aggresively playing security card. They can't just be on defence here. Must attack.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
Pro business? With Corbyn at the helm? I know he's been off grid in Rhyl this weekend at the Welsh Labour conference but he is still leader.
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy and much of our immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
That is why this attack on "benefits" is so false. Immigrants come here to work, often legally but sometimes illegally because they cannot work legally [ therefore, also cannot claim benefits ]. They are here to earn money.
Apparently, this highly publicised restriction on sending out child benefits apply to 34000 children only and the annual cost is £30m. This has been done only to "prove" that we are "tough" on immigrants by penalising children !
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
I see the Kingston & Surbiton Labour party now support a 'competitive wage' rather than a 'living wage'.
Underlying this mindset is the take it from them (the working class) and give it to me (the rich) mentality.
Higher prices are not good for the lower paid. But a living wage is a competitive wage for any business that exists on its own merits and not as the result of government subsidy.
That depends on what you mean by 'living wage'.
A dozen immigrants sharing a house have a lower living wage than a local who would like to buy the house and raise a family there.
Even if Boris runs with Leave, I wouldn't vote for him as leader.
We will have to treat Boris's role in Leave (if that is indeed how he jumps off the fence) as an extended job interview. Time to park the buffoon - and show us he has a measured, calculating statesman in him...
I can fully understand though why some will be looking through their fingers from behind the sofa.
I do not understand why does he have to wait until this evening or his newspaper article. It is all about HIM.
Its about getting Monday morning headlines, what get more viewership.
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
For those wondering why Zac thinks he can come out against the EU and still win London, it is worth reading the Open Europe briefing sent out this morning on the Cameron deal.
They jump right in with the protection of the City:
"What have EU leaders agreed?
A set of principles which outline that those outside the Eurozone/Banking Union should not be discriminated against, will not participate in Eurozone bailouts, can keep their own financial supervision/macro prudential regulation and will have visibility on all pertinent Eurozone talks.
Specifically, the text mentions the prospect of “specific provisions within the single rulebook” for financial institutions, which opens the door to differentiation between those inside and outside the banking union on bank regulation.
A mechanism to enforce these principles whereby, if any single member outside the banking union believes any of said principles are being overridden by a certain piece of legislation, it can request further discussion of the issue. The rotating Presidency of the Council of Ministers will then seek to find an agreement that takes account of the member state’s concerns. This can include triggering a discussion at the level of the European Council. However, this process will take place “without prejudice to the specific voting arrangements” previously agreed, meaning that the legislation can ultimately continue even if consensus is not found."
Note the last part of that final sentence. We do not have any special protection for the city at all. What Cameron has won is the right for us to say we don't like something and then be ignored as it is passed anyway.
Also, no-one is mentioning single rulebook being expanded to hedge funds, investment houses and private equity firms. These are non-credit institutions so worries about debt are unfounded. EU wants to regulate purely as power grab.
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
A log could not have got a worse deal than Cameron's farce.
There’s another aspect to the employment of migrants who will work for lower rates than locals, especially in a country like the UK where multinational companies ensure profits are taxed at the ;lowest rate, or none at all. The employment of workers at lower rates, while maintaining prices, enables an increase in profits, which, as I say, are taxed (or not) elsewhere. There are one or two household names I could name, but ........
You could but you would be looking in the wrong place, corporations use the rules of the environment in which they find themselves. Those household names find themselves in the EU, an organisation which was EXPLICITLY founded to promote the free movement of capital, which means people can move their money where they want in the Union, and ultimately pay their tax where they want in the union.
This seems to be a matter of cognitive dissonance for those on the left, they love the EU, so they gloss over inconvenient parts of it, notable, that it is, and always will be a corporatist racket - there are twice the lobbyists in Brussels than in Washington DC. Not just that, almost one of the last acts of the currently President of the EU, Mr Juncker, in his former job, was to make it extremely cheap for foreign companies to set up headquarters and pay tax in Luxenbourg, funny that.
Boris lack of decision is a defining moment for him and does him no favours no matter which side he decides to support. I cannot see him being the next PM
Even if Boris runs with Leave, I wouldn't vote for him as leader.
We will have to treat Boris's role in Leave (if that is indeed how he jumps off the fence) as an extended job interview. Time to park the buffoon - and show us he has a measured, calculating statesman in him...
I can fully understand though why some will be looking through their fingers from behind the sofa.
I do not understand why does he have to wait until this evening or his newspaper article. It is all about HIM.
He's going to try to (credibly) explain his flip-flopping.
He has a very tough ask. He should have come out for Leave on Friday night, with Gove.
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
That not right. It implies a better deal was needed NOT that better deal was definitely possible.
Andrew Pierce 'Step into the dark' will be most over used cliche by Yes camp as @David_Cameron used it 4 times already on @MarrShow
Project Fear...
And it is a step in the dark. I for one would be careful about stepping into the dark holding hands with Farage and Galloway. If you cannot see that leaving the EU is only the start for people like them then you are really being incredibly naïve. Joining the EEA would be quite an acceptable compromise for me (but would make little difference to free movement and EU regs), but the ultimate target for these outers is far more nasty. BTW David Smith in today's Sunday Times gives a clear elucidation of the fact that EU migration is good for the economy immigration is not really EU at all but non EU and students.
Whilst we are all prattling on about the EU the real social problems we face is being ignored. Far too many NEETs. How do we motivate our own people? It's shameful. I know I am ashamed over it.
You raise a very good point about NEET's. Blaming immigrants from Europe and elsewhere does not answer the more important domestic problem. These immigrants come and do the work which locals either will not do or not do at a competitive wage.
Apparently, this highly publicised restriction on sending out child benefits apply to 34000 children only and the annual cost is £30m. This has been done only to "prove" that we are "tough" on immigrants by penalising children !
We should ask ourselves who magically cleans our offices in the early hours of the morning ? Who serves us in restaurants ? Who would do back-bending work picking vegetables and fruits ?
Some say , pay more and Britons would do the job. Who would buy the produce then ? They would not survive competition.
I see the Kingston & Surbiton Labour party now support a 'competitive wage' rather than a 'living wage'.
Underlying this mindset is the take it from them (the working class) and give it to me (the rich) mentality.
Higher prices are not good for the lower paid. But a living wage is a competitive wage for any business that exists on its own merits and not as the result of government subsidy.
That depends on what you mean by 'living wage'.
A dozen immigrants sharing a house have a lower living wage than a local who would like to buy the house and raise a family there.
In a totally free market, yes. But I am a strong believer in state intervention, in both housing and wages (among other things) to prevent exploitation. I believe we all end up better off as a result.
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
Sharing the same currency is not the same as a currency peg.
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
Two sides of the same coin.
A currency union can only work in an Optimum Currency Area.
For this to exist you need (i) labour mobility; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) fiscal transfers; and (iv) similar business cycles
The EU gets a partial tick for (i) and (iii) a full tick for (ii) and a tick for (iv) [unless you also include the UK in which case it gets a big fat zero]
It was a paper on OCAs from the IEA in the late 80s that turned me against the Euro, having been relatively pro it.
That illustrates how desperate the stop-Trump camp is. The article says it's a Trump-Rubio fight, then lists all the reasons they're highly unlikely to be the last two candidates, and then casts doubt on whether Rubio could beat Trump even if they were.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
That not right. It implies a better deal was needed NOT that better deal was definitely possible.
If he thought a better deal was not possible, then he would have come out for Leave by now, as Gove and the other cabinet ministers did.
With 2 states each to 1 for Cruz and Sanders it looks like a Trump v Clinton general election contest now, though if Cruz and Sanders pick up a few states on Super Tuesday they could prolong the contest for a further month or two. Rubio may close the gap now Bush has dropped out and when Kasich drops out but not all their voters will go to him and I think Rubio drops out when he loses Florida to Trump a fortnight on Tuesday. Since 1976 no candidate, Democratic or Republican, has won their party's nomination after failing to win Iowa, NH or SC so the odds do not favour him
Even if Boris runs with Leave, I wouldn't vote for him as leader.
We will have to treat Boris's role in Leave (if that is indeed how he jumps off the fence) as an extended job interview. Time to park the buffoon - and show us he has a measured, calculating statesman in him...
I can fully understand though why some will be looking through their fingers from behind the sofa.
I do not understand why does he have to wait until this evening or his newspaper article. It is all about HIM.
He's going to try to (credibly) explain his flip-flopping.
He has a very tough ask. He should have come out for Leave on Friday night, with Gove.
Has he flip flopped? He said he wanted reformed EU. When draft was leaked he said it wasn't good enough. When it gets worse he supports Leave (allegedly). Wheres the change??
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
That not right. It implies a better deal was needed NOT that better deal was definitely possible.
Indeed, Boris could credibly take the position that the deal was not good enough and if it had been him we would have picked up his papers at that point, said "Good Day" and walked out.
Cameron is getting panned because he accepted the crap deal, it might have been the only deal on offer, that does not mean he had to accept it.
It is the main criticism of many on here that he was never serious about leaving, and hence he was always ultimately going to have to accept whatever crap he was offered... and his opponents knew it.
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
Sharing the same currency is not the same as a currency peg.
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
Two sides of the same coin.
A currency union can only work in an Optimum Currency Area.
For this to exist you need (i) labour mobility; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) fiscal transfers; and (iv) similar business cycles
The EU gets a partial tick for (i) and (iii) a full tick for (ii) and a tick for (iv) [unless you also include the UK in which case it gets a big fat zero]
It was a paper on OCAs from the IEA in the late 80s that turned me against the Euro, having been relatively pro it.
The most sensible proposal was that of Lord Lawson, who proposed the Hard ECU. This would have allowed - over the course of decades or maybe centuries - a pan European currency to come into being, but only at the whim of the market. Mrs Thatcher should have backed her Chancellor.
Listening to the various 'vote leave' conservatives on the media this am they are all complimentary to David Cameron, courteous, and emphasise there will be no fall out within the party
There's no campaign yet - they have not started calling each other liars and traitors to Brussels or Moscow - so i would bide a wee
Boris is clearly not Leave out of principle. He is Leave because he believes it suits him best. He will justify his opportunism by saying he does not think Dave got a good deal. The implication of that, of course, is that he believes a better deal could have been done. Do Tory Outers really want him in charge and negotiating Brexit? Surely, onle a principled Outer can be trusted to do that.
That not right. It implies a better deal was needed NOT that better deal was definitely possible.
Indeed, Boris could credibly take the position that the deal was not good enough and if it had been him we would have picked up his papers at that point, said "Good Day" and walked out.
Cameron is getting panned because he accepted the crap deal, it might have been the only deal on offer, that does not mean he had to accept it.
It is the main criticism of many on here that he was never serious about leaving, and hence he was always ultimately going to have to accept whatever crap he was offered... and his opponents knew it.
Hillary Benn says he won't share a platform with Cameron. I wonder if the stick Farage and Galloway are receiving is partly due to the embarrassment from the Remain side that they can't be seen to be united. After Scotland Labour won't touch Cameron with a bargepole.
I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
It's the way you tell them that makes them so funny.
And I believe that will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade.
Yes, Britain will always be open to the best and brightest from around the world and those fleeing persecution.
But with us, our borders will be under control and immigration will be at levels our country can manage.
No ifs. No buts.
That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping.
That video might be worth half a million votes for Leave.
Wearing our victorious 1966 colours. There are only three interesting politicians in Britain, Johnson, Farage and Galloway. Should leave score the hat trick, then leave wins.
Not a million miles from Nate Silver's view that 50:40:10 is about right, although on the low side for Cruz or any other candidate.
Which states does Nate think Rubio will win? And when?
It only makes sense if everyone drops out *now* and leaves the field to Trump and Rubio.
Rubio's only salvation is [ a reasonably good argument ] that the "proportional" delegate splitting ends very quickly. Thereafter, some of the big states have "winner takes all".
However, there is Kasich muddying the waters. Also, who would bet against Trump in Florida and New York. he may not need California.
Kasich is waiting for Ohio to polish his VP resume.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
Every leave conservative on the media today has been very complimentary to David Cameron and are clearly not going to split, indeed several expect him to continue as PM even if leave wins
I have to say Cameron is a class act. If it wasn't for some of his predecessors I could almost vote for him. Perfect reponse to questions about Boris. A knowing smile and then patronize him with the coup de grace the juxtaposition of Galloway and Farage.
He's almost up there with Blair. He and Nicola must be this decades outstanding politicians.
Cameron is better than Blair. Cam tells the truth.
It's the way you tell them that makes them so funny.
And I believe that will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade.
Yes, Britain will always be open to the best and brightest from around the world and those fleeing persecution.
But with us, our borders will be under control and immigration will be at levels our country can manage.
No ifs. No buts.
That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping.
He's a liar.
From earlier in that speech:
" OUR AIM
So, taking all this into account, I believe controlling immigration and bringing it down is of vital importance to the future of our country.
That's why during the election campaign, Conservatives made a clear commitment to the British people…
…that we would aim to reduce net migration to the levels we saw in the 1980s and 1990s.
Now we are in government, we are on track to meet that aim. "
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
The City created this so why can we not do this to the EuroZone? Anyone thinking that the EU 'saved' the City should understand the 'Mare of Bretton-Woods. *
* Goldmann-Such's employees may be excluded for sampling purposes (assuming their KinderGarten allow internet access)....
The 'mare of Bretton-Woods?
By untying currencies from gold we allowed the near-infinite creation of debt, and allowed the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the coming China debt crisis. Both the gold standard / Bretton Woods systems and the floating rates that followed are flawed.
It's only the nature of the crises that are different.
Eurozone crisis is similar to Bretton Woods. Currency pegs don't work, even if you try to make them unbreakable.
Sharing the same currency is not the same as a currency peg.
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
Two sides of the same coin.
A currency union can only work in an Optimum Currency Area.
For this to exist you need (i) labour mobility; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) fiscal transfers; and (iv) similar business cycles
The EU gets a partial tick for (i) and (iii) a full tick for (ii) and a tick for (iv) [unless you also include the UK in which case it gets a big fat zero]
It was a paper on OCAs from the IEA in the late 80s that turned me against the Euro, having been relatively pro it.
The most sensible proposal was that of Lord Lawson, who proposed the Hard ECU. This would have allowed - over the course of decades or maybe centuries - a pan European currency to come into being, but only at the whim of the market. Mrs Thatcher should have backed her Chancellor.
Surely there's no tick for business cycles? Germany and Spain need completely different rates at the moment.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
Every leave conservative on the media today has been very complimentary to David Cameron and are clearly not going to split, indeed several expect him to continue as PM even if leave wins
Do you think my 12/1 on Cameron to leave in 2016 is a bad bet (leaving aside the little matter of a Leave vote having to happen!)? I still think they're saying what they have to say - it would look pretty bad for Leavers to say the PM will have to resign in the event of Leave vote.
Wow, the stick Cameron is getting from tories is extraordinary, I thought it was just bitter little kippers like me who had their suspicions.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
Every leave conservative on the media today has been very complimentary to David Cameron and are clearly not going to split, indeed several expect him to continue as PM even if leave wins
Hillary Benn says he won't share a platform with Cameron. I wonder if the stick Farage and Galloway are receiving is partly due to the embarrassment from the Remain side that they can't be seen to be united. After Scotland Labour won't touch Cameron with a bargepole.
Comments
Besides, I can see Bush's 6% splitting fairly evenly between Kasich, Rubio and Trump, doing little to the race overall.
I do not see how you can blame Bretton Woods for the US sub prime lending crisis or the stupidity of various other banks for accepting their debts all bundled up as special purpose vehicles.
Rather it would be nice if society could evolve to take people out of their sub prime status .
“We would like to see net immigration in the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds of thousands."
It's a myth that the gold standard or other fixed rate systems didn't suffer financial and credit crises- I'm sure you know that
If there are 40 hours work available and they are taken by one employee they have a full time wage and much lower need for support.
If a second worker is added and they split the 40 hours, both have only part time earnings and both require support.
Workers need a monopoly on skills and supply to improve their hand in securing a better return for their labour.
The EU driven over-supply of labour undermines the domestic worker.
http://www.bustle.com/articles/143191-who-will-jeb-bush-endorse-theres-one-logical-and-likely-choice
On migration, I know of lot of people who have moved between countries (including myself). The primary characteristic is a fundamental willingness to think about it and be open-minded about doing it again - few people nowadays would hesitate to move from, say, Manchester to Sheffield to get a better job, and voluntary migration types feel the same about going to another country. Once you're there, as Lucy notes, reasons arise why you might want to stay, but they're rarely absolutely decisive. Spouses are often up for a move as well.
The big pull factor for people who've come from Eastern Europe and made a bit of money to go home is simply that you can get far more for the money there. Even going to Germany you can get a massive bargain if you want to buy a house, compared with most parts of England. Coupled with the affinity of language and culture, it's tempting.
And yet, as Lucy notes, when you go back on holiday to see family you find it's not quite as compatible as you remember. You've been exposed to other cultures, and you hear people who don't know them say they're rubbish and only your country is worth living in. And you wonder, is it really your home any more?
People make different decision, and some will go back, especially when they reach retirement age. But I'd guess that the majority won't.
Laid Rubio.
Stupid stupid prices.
Boris "Chopper" Johnson shows how to negotiate with Europeans:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWIUp19bBoA
Betfair has gone bonkers.
Bretton Woods tied everything to gold. This meant that as imbalances built up, then gold physically moved around the vaults in New York. If your balance was getting low, then you were running a current account deficit, and you needed to rectify your policies (raising interest rates, etc.) to prevent actually seeing your balance exhausted.
This made it very, very different to the Eurozone.
By leaving a system built around gold, we allowed dislocations to grow and grow and grow. When your actions are constrained by your stock of gold, you can't have a situation - like that of Greece of Spain's prior to the Eurozone crisis - where you ran up 10-15% of GDP current account deficits. Simply, you would have run out of gold.
Except that if we had concerns about them, we could kick them out.
Big difference.
Cameron is retiring anyway. If Remain were to win then the assumption is strangely that the Tories will chose a leader who would be at odds with the majority of the country, in essence that they would go down the comfort zone route of Corbyn's Labour.
To do so would undo over a decade of movement to a centre position attractive to producing a majority even allowing for fruit loop kippers. Why would the Tory party want to regress to a position of being one of two ferrets in a sack alongside ukip?
There are one or two household names I could name, but ........
The problem with the Eurozone crisis was more to do with stupid banking and inflexible labour markets than currency union.
I'm going to go balls deep on Boris being Northern Ireland Secretary.
Underlying this mindset is the take it from them (the working class) and give it to me (the rich) mentality.
We will have far more control as an independent country, than as part of the the EU, no matter what trade deal we agree.
It does show how fair weather some of his supporters have Been though. Praised to the hills, a bit too much, for winning the ge as though the incoming criticism over Europe would not have happened regardless - only the scale was variable.
Cameron did his party a great favour. The referendum by the end of 2017 effectively kicked the "EU time bomb" to this side of the election. While Cameron was not to know at the time, this also enabled his party to win a majority.
You are correct. The bloodletting would have happened anyway. On Europe, the Conservatives are two parties; the Provincial Tories and the Metropolitan Tories. There are simply more of them who live in the Sticks !
I can fully understand though why some will be looking through their fingers from behind the sofa.
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/20/11081032/south-carolina-results-donald-trump-marco-rubio
Unless we drive every day with the fiscal accelerator flat to the floor and then find that we don't have any more when we really need it
I mean there was one guy, who up until quite recently laying Trump like there was no tomorrow
BTW, I have not attended a single meeting of the K&SLP ever. Attended a Christmas Party once. Nice people. They all support the living wage.
He's a great showman, but a shocking opportunist.
(but they do supress wage rates)
They jump right in with the protection of the City:
"What have EU leaders agreed?
A set of principles which outline that those outside the Eurozone/Banking Union should not be discriminated against, will not participate in Eurozone bailouts, can keep their own financial supervision/macro prudential regulation and will have visibility on all pertinent Eurozone talks.
Specifically, the text mentions the prospect of “specific provisions within the single rulebook” for financial institutions, which opens the door to differentiation between those inside and outside the banking union on bank regulation.
A mechanism to enforce these principles whereby, if any single member outside the banking union believes any of said principles are being overridden by a certain piece of legislation, it can request further discussion of the issue. The rotating Presidency of the Council of Ministers will then seek to find an agreement that takes account of the member state’s concerns. This can include triggering a discussion at the level of the European Council. However, this process will take place “without prejudice to the specific voting arrangements” previously agreed, meaning that the legislation can ultimately continue even if consensus is not found."
Note the last part of that final sentence. We do not have any special protection for the city at all. What Cameron has won is the right for us to say we don't like something and then be ignored as it is passed anyway.
Anyway, you can pick holes in Cameron's national security argument. We have closer cooperation with USA and Canada on terrorism than we do with France and Germany. But it doesn't matter all that much because Cameron just wants to muddy the waters enough that there is a terrorism worry associated with Leave. Thats why out campaign need to muddy waters enough with the open borders to German Syrians/Iraqis/Afghans argument.
Personally think whole terrorism thing is overblown. People should worry more about car accidents. But Cameron will win this referendum if Leave don't come out aggresively playing security card. They can't just be on defence here. Must attack.
A dozen immigrants sharing a house have a lower living wage than a local who would like to buy the house and raise a family there.
Jamie Ross
Farage appears to have backed out of a Salmond debate on Sky, saying Salmond is no longer a "big figure". He wants @NicolaSturgeon instead.
This seems to be a matter of cognitive dissonance for those on the left, they love the EU, so they gloss over inconvenient parts of it, notable, that it is, and always will be a corporatist racket - there are twice the lobbyists in Brussels than in Washington DC. Not just that, almost one of the last acts of the currently President of the EU, Mr Juncker, in his former job, was to make it extremely cheap for foreign companies to set up headquarters and pay tax in Luxenbourg, funny that.
He has a very tough ask. He should have come out for Leave on Friday night, with Gove.
A currency union can only work in an Optimum Currency Area.
For this to exist you need (i) labour mobility; (ii) capital mobility; (iii) fiscal transfers; and (iv) similar business cycles
The EU gets a partial tick for (i) and (iii) a full tick for (ii) and a tick for (iv) [unless you also include the UK in which case it gets a big fat zero]
It was a paper on OCAs from the IEA in the late 80s that turned me against the Euro, having been relatively pro it.
Really enjoying this whole EU thing, something unprecedented in my lifetime, hopefully it will lead to less tribalism as people decide not to vote on party loyalty.
More importantly Spurs take their next step towards repeating the double of '61 today, what a May/June we're going to have.
Implied probabilities of BF at moment (GOP nominee):
Trump 2.08 48.08%
Rubio 2.24 44.64%
Cruz 34 2.94%
Kasich 42 2.38%
Not a million miles from Nate Silver's view that 50:40:10 is about right, although on the low side for Cruz or any other candidate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k448JqQyj8&ebc=ANyPxKpouGT8hbGA0uRnPLyl1hIP5ByaSf_UhjqDakR0lh7daUcoc08AWC-66WyKzaHIE_C5xayXzrh-xKdt8rl-kGJwyqwM0g
It only makes sense if everyone drops out *now* and leaves the field to Trump and Rubio.
Cameron is getting panned because he accepted the crap deal, it might have been the only deal on offer, that does not mean he had to accept it.
It is the main criticism of many on here that he was never serious about leaving, and hence he was always ultimately going to have to accept whatever crap he was offered... and his opponents knew it.
- they have not started calling each other liars and traitors to Brussels or Moscow
- so i would bide a wee
What's your evidence that he didn't believe it?
There are only three interesting politicians in Britain, Johnson, Farage and Galloway.
Should leave score the hat trick, then leave wins.
@bbclaurak: Sturgeon careful to say Brexit would trigger 'demands' for indyref 2, not the same as committing to having another vote
However, there is Kasich muddying the waters. Also, who would bet against Trump in Florida and New York. he may not need California.
Kasich is waiting for Ohio to polish his VP resume.
From earlier in that speech:
" OUR AIM
So, taking all this into account, I believe controlling immigration and bringing it down is of vital importance to the future of our country.
That's why during the election campaign, Conservatives made a clear commitment to the British people…
…that we would aim to reduce net migration to the levels we saw in the 1980s and 1990s.
Now we are in government, we are on track to meet that aim. "