For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war. If he became PM, he would be horrendously reliant on his staff.
Haven't you just summed up 'politician' with those skills? :-)
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war. If he became PM, he would be horrendously reliant on his staff.
Sounds like Cameron or Blair. All are "Big picture" men with plenty of politics talent and rhetorical ability, and not much of an eye for detail. Parliament is woefully short on scientists, engineers, or in deed anyone who has done anything other than carry another politicians bags for a bit before getting elected. PPE is the easy bit of three courses, there is a reason people increasingly sneer at PPE politicians, and for some reason they seem to be very average in many ways and especially lack the slightest hint of intellectual curiosity.
There are a few scientists and engineers, Thatcher was a chemist of course, Cable studied natural sciences, a few backbenchers were engineers but it is not surprising most scientists go into science and industry and leave the politics to the PPE grads
I once read more STEM grads go into finance than science...
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
Rotterdam skews the EU-UK trade stats; I don't know what it does for Norway.
To be fair I think Norway's trade surplus with the EU is probably made up overwhelmingly of energy resources. Not only vast amounts of oil, but they also export large amounts of hydroelectric power generation to Denmark
I still think it's not a great comparison given that we're much bigger than Norway. But this talk of energy has got me thinking, do we not import electricity from France? I wouldn't be surprised to hear Cameron tell us leaving the EU is a threat to our energy security. Obviously the Leavers could point to the closure of perfectly good coal fired power stations, but it this topic could come up.
We do import from France. We also export as well. Of course we also import huge amounts of gas from Norway - who are not an EU member. And yes. The EU has done far more to damage our energy security than help it.
I did not get one until last year, some pensioners are still not even on the internet
I first got onto the internet when I was 28 - my parents were on it before I was. I got my first mobile phone when I was 38 - all it does is calls and texts and I never take it with me anywhere much anyway. I do like my tablet though which I got on my 41st birthday last year.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war.
Sounds like Cameron or Blair. All are "Big picture" men with plenty of politics talent and rhetorical ability, and not much of an eye for detail. Parliament is woefully short on scientists, engineers, or in deed anyone who has done anything other than carry another politicians bags for a bit before getting elected. PPE is the easy bit of three courses, there is a reason people increasingly sneer at PPE politicians, and for some reason they seem to be very average in many ways and especially lack the slightest hint of intellectual curiosity.
There are a few scientists and engineers, Thatcher was a chemist of course, Cable studied natural sciences, a few backbenchers were engineers but it is not surprising most scientists go into science and industry and leave the politics to the PPE grads
The entire Chinese politburo are engineers/scientists by training, I believe. But then I don't think subjects such as PPE are easily studied in China!
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
This seems a very odd line. Who cares TBH. You might as well ask who Aberdeen Fishmongers are coming out for, or Manchester Lawyers, or Bristol Bricklayers. Bankers don't get any more votes than anyone else. The whole idea of campaign finance is a farce anyway, Remain get to spend the government money, they will win on that front regardless of who backs LEAVE.
I was really pointing out that the big city firms will almost universally back Remain, not necessarily saying that was a good thing
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
What I'm finding most strange is the almost invisibility of Corbyn. I know he's supposed to be for Leave, but pushed into Remain - but he's totally absent from the debate.
As a leader, he's doing no leading anywhere here.
Finally learned his lesson and trying to stay out of the limelight whenever he can, I suspect. Framing this as a Tory only debate is incorrect, but it is much more important for them than any other party, and he can maximize their difficulties by staying well out of it.
He does have some political sense after all.
He's just not being reported much. He had a lengthy pro-Remain Guardian piece this week, and a meeting in Brussels with all the European Socialist leaders where they agreed to support Remain. The media's not very interested unless he says something controversial (generally true of all politicians).
It's important for Remain that Labour supporters know that the party is keen for them to vote - note BigJohn's coment that he probably wouldn't bother and would probably vote Leave if he did. To make that work, Labour has tro fight a separate campaign - that's why it would be really bad politics for Remain if Alan Johnson shared a platform with Cameron.
Am I right in thinking that Norway has a trade surplus with the EU? If so, all of these comparisons between the deal Norway has with the EU and what we - a country with a trade deficit with the EU - are not particularly useful.
Rotterdam skews the EU-UK trade stats; I don't know what it does for Norway.
To be fair I think Norway's trade surplus with the EU is probably made up overwhelmingly of energy resources. Not only vast amounts of oil, but they also export large amounts of hydroelectric power generation to Denmark
I still think it's not a great comparison given that we're much bigger than Norway. But this talk of energy has got me thinking, do we not import electricity from France? I wouldn't be surprised to hear Cameron tell us leaving the EU is a threat to our energy security. Obviously the Leavers could point to the closure of perfectly good coal fired power stations, but it this topic could come up.
We do import from France. We also export as well. Of course we also import huge amounts of gas from Norway - who are not an EU member. And yes. The EU has done far more to damage our energy security than help it.
We also re-export gas to Ireland, which is counted as exports to the EU in our trade figures, when really we are just acting as a conduit.
This popped into my timeline, thought it was quite pertinent - if you add in recently invaded too.
"All the other EU countries came from some form of dictatorship, communism or facsim & the EU looks democratic to them. We know its not #bbcqt"
This is an interesting admission that the UK exerted dictatorship over Cyprus, Ireland and Malta...
It does rather ignore both Sweden and Finland as well who managed to resist fascism and communism very successfully by various means. It is rue that many countries came to the EU out of dictatorship but certainly not all of them.
It would be very hard for a PM who has advocated leaving, and then negotiated the UK's exit from, the EU to veto a second Scottish independence referendum.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
Senior management/the older generations are supportive & hence the big name firms are supportive as it's the senior folks who control the discussion (e.g. Gerry Grimston blowing steam is taken as a sign that "Standard Life" supports the EU, when it's not the case at all). The junior partners and marzipans are more interested in the future opportunity.
Odey has been mentioned, Guinness Asset Management, Sloane Robinson are all in favour of Brexit as is Tosca and (I believe) Landsdowne. Our family never takes a public position on anything, but the majority of the SLT are in favour of Brexit.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
This seems a very odd line. Who cares TBH. You might as well ask who Aberdeen Fishmongers are coming out for, or Manchester Lawyers, or Bristol Bricklayers. Bankers don't get any more votes than anyone else. The whole idea of campaign finance is a farce anyway, Remain get to spend the government money, they will win on that front regardless of who backs LEAVE.
I was really pointing out that the big city firms will almost universally back Remain, not necessarily saying that was a good thing
They all will, but discrely. They know their client base.
I'd be interested in your view as to how well Cameron has conducted these negotiations.
A couple of years back we crossed words on the issue with me saying Cameron had destroyed his negotiation position by ruling out leaving the EU whereas you assured me he knew what he was doing.
I don't think we can judge on whether he knew what he was doing unless we are 100% certain on his objectives!
I haven't had the chance to read the final version properly yet, but based on the version a couple of weeks ago, it's not a good result & it's likely to make me vote leave.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
OK for people who are short of credence or hate Scotland though
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
The argument is Sturgeon's - that the European Union is more important to Scotland than the British one......
The last two GOP runs have proved very profitable, but this time I've been struggling to find a way in.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
Seems to me now that the only viable 'stop trump' candidate is Rubio. Cruz is too reliant on evangelicals and these voters are in states that offer only proportional delegates. Looking increasingly like no one can stop Trump, but I remain on Rubio for both GOP and POTUS. Hoping to make up for early losses on Bush.
SC turnout in the GOP primary was enormous: 27.1% of all registered voters (737,917 of 2,722,280).
Broken down by 'track', it was:
Rebel = 32.5% Evangelist = 22.3% Establishment = 37.9% Carson (don't see his remaining voters going either Trump or Cruz, maybe abstain or Kasich)
So, it boils down to how much of the Bush and Kasich vote Rubio can mop up now he is the clear anti-Trump/Cruz, when Kasich moves out of the way and how much damage he does to Rubio before he does.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
You may have missed the original post a few days ago.
1. If the UK is in the EU, then you are absolutely right
2. If the UK votes to leave, then I think the EU making an offer to Scotland to secede and rejoin the EU is not impossible. It would be incredibly hostile, but it's a different scenario to permitting an existing EU member to break in two.
What would stop us then inviting the Basque country and Catalonia to secede from Spain (and extending that to any other secession-minded part of the EU) and to form a trading bloc with us, maybe even with the pound as a common currency? On top of which we would remain Scotland's biggest trading partner and only tenable geographic route into the EU, so UDI would be madness.
Of course nothing would stop us inviting Basque/Catalonia to secede, but I am sure it will be couched as "if Scotland votes to leave, we are willing to offer them the chance to rejoin the EU on the same terms as the UK left". UDI would, of course, be madness, but nationalists don't always think rationally (or rather they weight emotional concepts above mere numbers in their decision process)
All I know is that the French Ambassador made this comment to Gus O'Donnell. That's not the sort of remark that is made casually to that channel - it may be just a threat but it's significant.
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
I hope, for the sake of those who would suffer in such an attack, that we don't get a terrorist attack. The impact on Cameron is neither here not there, frankly.
Anyway, my thoughts FWTW are these:-
1. The negotiated deal is a crock of shit.
2. Gove's statement is a superb statement of what liberal democracy means and what it means for Britain. That and Benn's speech during the Syrian debate are two speeches/statements worth keeping and referring to. Gove admirably sets out what the real issues are not this piffling "How much are these peas?" approach to benefits which Cameron has been peddling - and not very effectively either.
3. Galloway is still an unmentionable - as is Farage for thinking he should be given centre stage - but I am not letting either of those two ghastly people determine my life or decisions, other than a determination never to vote for them.
4. If Boris goes for Leave he should concentrate on how Cameron has failed to ensure a proper balance between Britain's interests and those of the eurozone and that as a consequence a major industry in Britain and for London and the South-East in particular is at risk.
And - in other news and if Southam Observer is around - this article is rather good if depressing and, sadly, accurate.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
Trade, finance, economics and prosperity are secondary issues for the SNP. What matters are the flag and a frontier. To be fair, it's what all nationalism is about in the end, British as well.
I think quite a lot of soft nationalism is about culture and community. People don't like to see their way of life unsettled, they certainly don't like to feel they don't recognise the community they grew up in. Lots of people get uneasy when they don't understand what is being said around them.
I can understand the last point completely, I live in a foreign country, but it has 70+ distinct dialects as well as effectively two nationally spoken languages and a couple of supra-regional dialects spoken by half the country. I speak one of the regional dialects moderately, one of the nationally used languages well (English) and bits of a couple of other dialects. I can do business fine, anyone I talk to can converse with me.
The problem is situational awareness, I can rarely understand what who people close by are saying to each other, and they often assume that I can. Hugely annoying, when one person has just told another nearby that he shouldn't mention something to a third person, or they are grumbling about something in the hopes I will do something about it. Even in my own house four languages are spoken regularly, and I speak two of them, my wife often is talking to a friend, and then turns so me and says "Isn't that right" and I have to reply "Isn't what right!"
I imagine people walking down a high street with lots of conversations happening in various languages feel the same way, its disconcerting!
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
</
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms</p>
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
Senior management/the older generations are supportive & hence the big name firms are supportive as it's the senior folks who control the discussion (e.g. Gerry Grimston blowing steam is taken as a sign that "Standard Life" supports the EU, when it's not the case at all). The junior partners and marzipans are more interested in the future opportunity.
Odey has been mentioned, Guinness Asset Management, Sloane Robinson are all in favour of Brexit as is Tosca and (I believe) Landsdowne. Our family never takes a public position on anything, but the majority of the SLT are in favour of Brexit.
What opportunities are we missing at the moment? Plenty of other EU member states trade more with RoW than we do. Most - if not all - of our export/trade failures are homegrown.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it i
Sounds like Cameron or Blair. All are "Big picture" men with plenty of politics talent and rhetorical ability, and not much of an eye for detail. Parliament is woefully short on scientists, engineers, or in deed anyone wh
There are a few scientists and engineers, Thatcher was a chemist of course, Cable studied natural sciences, a few backbenchers were engineers but it is not surprising most scientists go into science and industry and leave the politics to the PPE grads
The entire Chinese politburo are engineers/scientists by training, I believe. But then I don't think subjects such as PPE are easily studied in China!
The Chinese PM, Li Keqiang actually studied law and has a phd in economics, so that may be changing with the new generation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang
The president, Xi Jinping, studied chemical engineering initially but studied Marxist philosophy and ideological education as a postgrad and obtained a doctorate in law covering law, management, politics and revolutionary history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
You may have missed the original post a few days ago.
1. If the UK is in the EU, then you are absolutely right
2. If the UK votes to leave, then I think the EU making an offer to Scotland to secede and rejoin the EU is not impossible. It would be incredibly hostile, but it's a different scenario to permitting an existing EU member to break in two.
What would stop us then inviting the Basque country and Catalonia to secede from Spain (and extending that to any other secession-minded part of the EU) and to form a trading bloc with us, maybe even with the pound as a common currency? On top of which we would remain Scotland's biggest trading partner and only tenable geographic route into the EU, so UDI would be madness.
Of course nothing would stop us inviting Basque/Catalonia to secede, but I am sure it will be couched as "if Scotland votes to leave, we are willing to offer them the chance to rejoin the EU on the same terms as the UK left". UDI would, of course, be madness, but nationalists don't always think rationally (or rather they weight emotional concepts above mere numbers in their decision process)
All I know is that the French Ambassador made this comment to Gus O'Donnell. That's not the sort of remark that is made casually to that channel - it may be just a threat but it's significant.
The Scots could always try to stay in the EU even if they remain in the UK. Greenland is an integral part of the Kingdom of Denmark but is not in the EU.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
It would be very hard for a PM who has advocated leaving, and then negotiated the UK's exit from, the EU to veto a second Scottish independence referendum.
I know that there are a lot of direct costs to an independence referendum, and even bigger indirect costs to the economy, but this is the sort of issue where I depart company from most other unionists. I would think that a referendum should be held whenever there is a genuinely large groundswell for one. Otherwise the issue festers (worse than it does after a close result).
If the SNP are still riding high in the polls and in actual electoral results, and they call for another referendum, I think it would be both politically foolish and morally wrong to deny it.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: i
Sounds like Cameron or Blair. All are "Big picture" men with plenty of politics talent and rhetorical ability, and not much of an eye for detail. Parliament is woefully short on scientists, engineers, or in deed anyone who has done anything other than carry another politicians bags for a bit before getting elected. PPE is the easy bit of three courses, there is a reason people increasingly sneer at PPE politicians, and for some reason they seem to be very average in many ways and especially lack the slightest hint of intellectual curiosity.
There are a few scientists and engineers, Thatcher was a chemist of course, Cable studied natural sciences, a few backbenchers were engineers but it is not surprising most scientists go into science and industry and leave the politics to the PPE grads
I once read more STEM grads go into finance than science...
Yes well there is more money in finance than in science and there is also more money in finance than in politics too!
Bit late to this news, but if Boris declares for OUT than that's simply a very good thing: for democracy. Whichever side you support.
Without him (and to a lesser extent, Gove) there was and is a danger the Establishment will just bulldoze over the likes of Farage and Galloway, aided by the BBC, and REMAIN will win by a canter. It will all be very boring, and the nation won't have the very serious debate this question merits.
But if BoJo joins in for LEAVE then it will *feel* like a much tighter contest; moreover, his charisma and energy will get people interested. That's a good thing. Whether you are IN or OUT.
Go, Boris. Do it for the people.
Boris's prevarication has ensured that every time he is interviewed his personal ambitions will be at the centre of the questioning. It will certainly make things a lot more interesting. How will Osborne tespond to what is a clear leadership bid?
My MP and junior Justice Minister, Dominic Raab is now officially a Leaver. No surprise and no problem.
Well he knew you were going to deselect him if he didn't come out for Leave
As I'm drifting back to Remain, that would be awfully SeanT of me.
Oh, by the way, has your finance pall opined on whether the final deal is better/worse/no change on protecting the financial sector than the earlier draft?
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
My MP and junior Justice Minister, Dominic Raab is now officially a Leaver. No surprise and no problem.
Well he knew you were going to deselect him if he didn't come out for Leave
As I'm drifting back to Remain, that would be awfully SeanT of me.
Oh, by the way, has your finance pall opined on whether the final deal is better/worse/no change on protecting the financial sector than the earlier draft?
Better, but only in the way that Syphilis is better than Herpes.
It would be very hard for a PM who has advocated leaving, and then negotiated the UK's exit from, the EU to veto a second Scottish independence referendum.
No it wouldn't. Any harder than it would be for a newly independent Scotland to veto The Shetlands upping sticks. It's not about the general concept it's about the specifics. There is a vast difference in the financial, practical, cultural, and historical implications of splitting the UK and of the UK leaving the EU.
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
I hope, for the sake of those who would suffer in such an attack, that we don't get a terrorist attack. The impact on Cameron is neither here not there, frankly.
Anyway, my thoughts FWTW are these:-
1. The negotiated deal is a crock of shit.
2. Gove's statement is a superb statement of what liberal democracy means and what it means for Britain. That and Benn's speech during the Syrian debate are two speeches/statements worth keeping and referring to. Gove admirably sets out what the real issues are not this piffling "How much are these peas?" approach to benefits which Cameron has been peddling - and not very effectively either.
3. Galloway is still an unmentionable - as is Farage for thinking he should be given centre stage - but I am not letting either of those two ghastly people determine my life or decisions, other than a determination never to vote for them.
4. If Boris goes for Leave he should concentrate on how Cameron has failed to ensure a proper balance between Britain's interests and those of the eurozone and that as a consequence a major industry in Britain and for London and the South-East in particular is at risk.
And - in other news and if Southam Observer is around - this article is rather good if depressing and, sadly, accurate.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did no
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
Senior management/the older generations are supportive & hence the big name firms are supportive as it's the senior folks who cont.
The older partners may well be more pro Remain as you say which directs the discussion but regardless of why they are making the decision the big firms will still back Remain. As for the next generation who knows, it may be the younger generation in the City are more sceptical, though nationally the younger generation is more pro Remain but as the referendum is held in 4 months we can only go on the position now
It would be very hard for a PM who has advocated leaving, and then negotiated the UK's exit from, the EU to veto a second Scottish independence referendum.
I know that there are a lot of direct costs to an independence referendum, and even bigger indirect costs to the economy, but this is the sort of issue where I depart company from most other unionists. I would think that a referendum should be held whenever there is a genuinely large groundswell for one. Otherwise the issue festers (worse than it does after a close result).
If the SNP are still riding high in the polls and in actual electoral results, and they call for another referendum, I think it would be both politically foolish and morally wrong to deny it.
I completely agree. If Scots want independence they should be able to have it.
My MP and junior Justice Minister, Dominic Raab is now officially a Leaver. No surprise and no problem.
Well he knew you were going to deselect him if he didn't come out for Leave
As I'm drifting back to Remain, that would be awfully SeanT of me.
Oh, by the way, has your finance pall opined on whether the final deal is better/worse/no change on protecting the financial sector than the earlier draft?
Not yet, he and his organisation will be poring over it this week.
He's not looking forward to it, his organisation looked at the risk of Scottish Independence and their report didn't go down well with the Nats back in 2014.
I've told him some Leavers make the more virulent Nats look well adjusted.
The Government has failed to secure the key renegotiation requirement, namely, that we should regain control of our borders. I shall therefore be campaigning to leave the EU. There are three crucial aspects of this campaign which will underpin victory. First, we must support those Labour voters who are critical to a victory to turn out and vote, despite the pro-EU line the Labour establishment will push.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
Whilst I would have been perfectly happy for Scotland to go it alone, I think the ties between Scotland and rUK are far stronger than those between the UK and the rest of Europe. Just six years ago Scotland provided the PM and Chancellor of the whole of the UK - and they could do again in the future.
Tory candidate for London Mayor goes for Leave despite 80 Footsie companies coming out for Remain.The claims of the Labour candidate to be the "most business-friendly ever" are boosted.It will Sadiq who is speaking for The City.This should increase the confidence of any long-term bets at long odds to hold and not lay off.A pro-business Labour is beginning to emerge and is a very dangerous weapon for the Tories to handle.
There's a very interesting split developing in the City
The older generation is pretty pro-REMAIN. The younger is much more globally orientated. We see this split in our family's senior leadership team. You can also see it on here with most - that I am aware of - of the city folks (@rcs1000, @MaxPB, myself, etc) leaning to LEAVE.
Stockbrokers and traders and some of the hedge funds will be for Leave, Bank management, senior partners, accountants and City lawyers will be for Remain.
I suspect I have a better feel for the internal affairs of the Corporation and its members than you do...
But, of course, I could be wrong.
I do not work in the City no, although my father and grandfather did and while you obviously do I notice you did not dispute the point in question. UKIP and the Leave campaign have received significant donations from the likes of hedge funder Crispin Odey and Farage was himself a former City trader. Almost all the major investment banks will back Remain as will the major City law firms
I completely dispute it.
The split is horizontal, not vertical.
Well please tell me which investment banks and city law firms are coming out for Leave then?
Amber Rudd's infamous brother @RolandRudd Zac Goldsmith just ensured he will lose London Mayor election by opting for Out when vast majority of City want to remain in EU
Re the City: I think the vast bulk of the City would be very happy with EFTA/EEA.
But I think they would be very resistant - to the extent of becoming pro-EU - if it meant leaving the single market for services, and losing - in particular - the single European financial services passport.
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
I hope, for the sake of those who would suffer in such an attack, that we don't get a terrorist attack. The impact on Cameron is neither here not there, frankly.
Anyway, my thoughts FWTW are these:-
1. The negotiated deal is a crock of shit.
2. Gove's statement is a superb statement of what liberal democracy means and what it means for Britain. That and Benn's speech during the Syrian debate are two speeches/statements worth keeping and referring to. Gove admirably sets out what the real issues are not this piffling "How much are these peas?" approach to benefits which Cameron has been peddling - and not very effectively either.
3. Galloway is still an unmentionable - as is Farage for thinking he should be given centre stage - but I am not letting either of those two ghastly people determine my life or decisions, other than a determination never to vote for them.
4. If Boris goes for Leave he should concentrate on how Cameron has failed to ensure a proper balance between Britain's interests and those of the eurozone and that as a consequence a major industry in Britain and for London and the South-East in particular is at risk.
And - in other news and if Southam Observer is around - this article is rather good if depressing and, sadly, accurate.
Sadly, I think this critique of the Left applies to the US and most of Western Europe too. What is worse, it comes with a sense of both moral and intellectual superiority, whereas in fact it is immoral and lazy thinking.
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
I hope, for the sake of those who would suffer in such an attack, that we don't get a terrorist attack. The impact on Cameron is neither here not there, frankly.
I hope for Cameron's immortal soul that there isn't such an attack, as frankly at this point I wouldn't trust him not to try and use it to advance the arguments for staying in the EU.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
The last two GOP runs have proved very profitable, but this time I've been struggling to find a way in.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
Seems to me now that the only viable 'stop trump' candidate is Rubio. Cruz is too reliant on evangelicals and these voters are in states that offer only proportional delegates. Looking increasingly like no one can stop Trump, but I remain on Rubio for both GOP and POTUS. Hoping to make up for early losses on Bush.
SC turnout in the GOP primary was enormous: 27.1% of all registered voters (737,917 of 2,722,280).
Broken down by 'track', it was:
Rebel = 32.5% Evangelist = 22.3% Establishment = 37.9% Carson (don't see his remaining voters going either Trump or Cruz, maybe abstain or Kasich)
So, it boils down to how much of the Bush and Kasich vote Rubio can mop up now he is the clear anti-Trump/Cruz, when Kasich moves out of the way and how much damage he does to Rubio before he does.
Carson's supporters are more likely to go for Trump and Cruz than Bush and Kasich's. With Super Tuesday in just a fortnight if Kasich stays in there that will hamper Rubio and he has to win some states then as Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few others. If he fails and Trump wins Florida on 15th March Rubio will then be out leaving a Trump v Cruz battle
My MP and junior Justice Minister, Dominic Raab is now officially a Leaver. No surprise and no problem.
Well he knew you were going to deselect him if he didn't come out for Leave
As I'm drifting back to Remain, that would be awfully SeanT of me.
Oh, by the way, has your finance pall opined on whether the final deal is better/worse/no change on protecting the financial sector than the earlier draft?
Better, but only in the way that Syphilis is better than Herpes.
The last two GOP runs have proved very profitable, but this time I've been struggling to find a way in.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
Seems to me now that the only viable 'stop trump' candidate is Rubio. Cruz is too reliant on evangelicals and these voters are in states that offer only proportional delegates. Looking increasingly like no one can stop Trump, but I remain on Rubio for both GOP and POTUS. Hoping to make up for early losses on Bush.
SC turnout in the GOP primary was enormous: 27.1% of all registered voters (737,917 of 2,722,280).
Broken down by 'track', it was:
Rebel = 32.5% Evangelist = 22.3% Establishment = 37.9% Carson (don't see his remaining voters going either Trump or Cruz, maybe abstain or Kasich)
So, it boils down to how much of the Bush and Kasich vote Rubio can mop up now he is the clear anti-Trump/Cruz, when Kasich moves out of the way and how much damage he does to Rubio before he does.
Carson's supporters are more likely to go for Trump and Cruz than Bush and Kasich's. With Super Tuesday in just a fortnight if Kasich stays in there that will hamper Rubio and he has to win some states then as Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few others. If he fails and Trump wins Florida on 15th March Rubio will then be out leaving a Trump v Cruz battle
Amber Rudd's infamous brother @RolandRudd Zac Goldsmith just ensured he will lose London Mayor election by opting for Out when vast majority of City want to remain in EU
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
British people see themselves as European much less than Scots see themselves as British, I would imagine.
The last two GOP runs have proved very profitable, but this time I've been struggling to find a way in.
My very early nomination money (well over a year ago) went on Christie then more recently it went on Rubio. Christie is a write off and I had a feeling so was Rubio, but now I'm not so sure.
The GOP grandees can work with Trump, to a point, they can't work with Cruz. That won't stop them trying to bring Trump down (the assumption is that Cruz will eventually wither). Given Rubio's team was sounded out by Bush donors some time ago in case Jeb did drop out, Marco should have resources. More importantly he is perhaps the main fairly middle of the road candidate that still holds a decent block within the GOP voter base.
Seems to me now that the only viable 'stop trump' candidate is Rubio. Cruz is too reliant on evangelicals and these voters are in states that offer only proportional delegates. Looking increasingly like no one can stop Trump, but I remain on Rubio for both GOP and POTUS. Hoping to make up for early losses on Bush.
SC turnout in the GOP primary was enormous: 27.1% of all registered voters (737,917 of 2,722,280).
Broken down by 'track', it was:
Rebel = 32.5% Evangelist = 22.3% Establishment = 37.9% Carson (don't see his remaining voters going either Trump or Cruz, maybe abstain or Kasich)
So, it boils down to how much of the Bush and Kasich vote Rubio can mop up now he is the clear anti-Trump/Cruz, when Kasich moves out of the way and how much damage he does to Rubio before he does.
Carson's supporters are more likely to go for Trump and Cruz than Bush and Kasich's. With Super Tuesday in just a fortnight if Kasich stays in there that will hamper Rubio and he has to win some states then as Cruz will likely win Texas, Arkansas and a few others. If he fails and Trump wins Florida on 15th March Rubio will then be out leaving a Trump v Cruz battle
Which can only be won by Trump.
I would agree on that outcome, although Trump v Cruz could go on until the end of April
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.
The older partners may well be more pro Remain as you say which directs the discussion but regardless of why they are making the decision the big firms will still back Remain. As for the next generation who knows, it may be the younger generation in the City are more sceptical, though nationally the younger generation is more pro Remain but as the referendum is held in 4 months we can only go on the position now
"We can only go on the position now" - unless you have differentiated understanding. But you go with what you read in the press; I'll go with what my cousins and I are told over coffee and lunch.
Few of these firms - other than those with a particular axe to grind (Gerry!), close links to politicos (JP), or talking their own book (GS, Tosca) will take a particularly strong stance because of the splits.
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
Hmmm... I knew some very stupid Classics students at Cambridge.
(Not including Kwasi Kwarteng. Who got a First. And then was then a Fulbright Scholar. And is an Out-ter. Although he did work for Crispin Odey, so he's not all good.)
Quite possibly... I'll ask him next time I see him
BTW, Kwasi is the last person in the UK not to have a smartphone.
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
I hope, for the sake of those who would suffer in such an attack, that we don't get a terrorist attack. The impact on Cameron is neither here not there, frankly.
Anyway, my thoughts FWTW are these:-
1. The negotiated deal is a crock of shit.
2. Gove's statement is a superb statement of what liberal democracy means and what it means for Britain. That and Benn's speech during the Syrian debate are two speeches/statements worth keeping and referring to. Gove admirably sets out what the real issues are not this piffling "How much are these peas?" approach to benefits which Cameron has been peddling - and not very effectively either.
3. Galloway is still an unmentionable - as is Farage for thinking he should be given centre stage - but I am not letting either of those two ghastly people determine my life or decisions, other than a determination never to vote for them.
4. If Boris goes for Leave he should concentrate on how Cameron has failed to ensure a proper balance between Britain's interests and those of the eurozone and that as a consequence a major industry in Britain and for London and the South-East in particular is at risk.
And - in other news and if Southam Observer is around - this article is rather good if depressing and, sadly, accurate.
Just to be clear, I hope nothing happens. What I was getting at is that Cameron's telling people that our security is dependent upon on our membership of the EU. I think this makes Cameron fair game for criticism should something happen that is in part related to the 'refugee' crisis.
I disagree with you on Farage. I certainly don't want him to lead the Leave campaign, but I think he has a role to play. He puts his case across very well and connects a sizeable chunk of the electorate. Hopefully others like Gove can connect with those who are not so keen on Farage.
Re the City: I think the vast bulk of the City would be very happy with EFTA/EEA.
But I think they would be very resistant - to the extent of becoming pro-EU - if it meant leaving the single market for services, and losing - in particular - the single European financial services passport.
Agree: their preference is EFTA/EEA > EU > Glorious isolation.
Amber Rudd's infamous brother @RolandRudd Zac Goldsmith just ensured he will lose London Mayor election by opting for Out when vast majority of City want to remain in EU
Am thinking of ditching my spectator subscription. It's perfectly enjoyable but expensive for what it is.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.
Perhaps. But opportunism over a matter like this may also be seen negatively. And if I were a Tory Outer I'd be concerned about what kind of Brexit deal PM Boris would negotiate, or whether he'd even negotiate one at all.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
British people see themselves as European much less than Scots see themselves as British, I would imagine.
I think you imagine wrong. I know very few who count themselves British
Amber Rudd's infamous brother @RolandRudd Zac Goldsmith just ensured he will lose London Mayor election by opting for Out when vast majority of City want to remain in EU
For Leave I'm starting to wonder if having Boris is starting to feel like having a star footballer who doesn't really want to play for your club.
A very good analogy. But equally the star player when he gets on the pitch has far too big an ego not to be that star player. Boris won't be able to 'play nice' with Cameron's deal if he comes out for Leave -he will verbally pulverise it. He will make Cameron look silly. Boris has always been better than Cameron, since childhood, and that dynamic will be a part of this if they are on opposite sides in this referendum.
Cameron got a first, Boris a second
Cameron got a First in PPE.
Boris got a scolarship for Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy)
I wonder which is the harder degree.
I am sure knowing Latin helps to run a modern country.
I am sure not even you would claim Boris is stupid.
If all Boris has is Literae Humaniores (Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, Latin, ancient Greek and philosophy) then that's a bit worrying: it's the 1st century BC equivalent of media studies. I mean yes, it involves the ability to gather information, sift for the important stuff, analyse the results and reach conclusions, but it's very qualitative and I think his conclusions rely more on rhetorical ability than something more rigorous. If true, it would explain why he did well in journalism and politics, but these are not skills you need in, say, putting up a shelf or winning a war. If he became PM, he would be horrendously reliant on his staff.
Sounds like Cameron or Blair. All are "Big picture" men with plenty of politics talent and rhetorical ability, and not much of an eye for detail. Parliament is woefully short on scientists, engineers, or in deed anyone who has done anything other than carry another politicians bags for a bit before getting elected. PPE is the easy bit of three courses, there is a reason people increasingly sneer at PPE politicians, and for some reason they seem to be very average in many ways and especially lack the slightest hint of intellectual curiosity.
er hello??? Just because some of them come across as over-educated half-wits, don't sneer at the substance of the course. I did Politics and Economics and the political philosophy section was the bit I enjoyed the most and which has stayed with me to this day. I still read political philosophy and history. There is nothing average or lacking in intellectual curiosity about a mind properly engaging with Locke, Paine, Burke, Mill, etc.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
Cameron deliberately did the cabinet meeting on a Saturday so that the ungagging of Leave ministers would be on a day where people don't follow the news. Thats why BoJo is waiting.
Alan Johnson on WATO R4 "I wouldn't say [they]…could be described as the Political All Stars" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/FNik3icw52
IDS dignified in his response to that on WATO. "I think that is undignified of Alan." IDS to Boris and others "Your country elected you to govern for them".
Amber Rudd's infamous brother @RolandRudd Zac Goldsmith just ensured he will lose London Mayor election by opting for Out when vast majority of City want to remain in EU
I love it. Great bathtime read of an evening in. I'd buy it just for Tanya Gold's excoriating restaurant reviews: http://www.spectator.co.uk/author/tanya-gold/ Of course you can read most of it online free, but you don't.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
We are only having a referendum because Cameron was worried about UKIP. Boris will do what is best for Boris, just as Dave did what was best for Dave.
Also just to attack the other Conservatives. A great quote for a leaflet?
@BBCWorldatOne Alan Johnson: PM's renegotiation was "largely a sideshow…We're now able…to discuss the wider issues of Europe" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/T2QpkPi5R1 Retweeted by Nick Sutton
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
I hope, for the sake of those who would suffer in such an attack, that we don't get a terrorist attack. The impact on Cameron is neither here not there, frankly.
Anyway, my thoughts FWTW are these:-
1. The negotiated deal is a crock of shit.
2. Gove's statement is a superb statement of what liberal democracy means and what it means for Britain. That and Benn's speech during the Syrian debate are two speeches/statements worth keeping and referring to. Gove admirably sets out what the real issues are not this piffling "How much are these peas?" approach to benefits which Cameron has been peddling - and not very effectively either.
3. Galloway is still an unmentionable - as is Farage for thinking he should be given centre stage - but I am not letting either of those two ghastly people determine my life or decisions, other than a determination never to vote for them.
4. If Boris goes for Leave he should concentrate on how Cameron has failed to ensure a proper balance between Britain's interests and those of the eurozone and that as a consequence a major industry in Britain and for London and the South-East in particular is at risk.
And - in other news and if Southam Observer is around - this article is rather good if depressing and, sadly, accurate.
Have you read 'What's Left' by NIck Cohen? An equally cogent summary.
Yes I have. Cogent, true, depressing and ignored by those who should be listening to what he says. Paul Berman is another writer who is worth reading on similar topics. Highly recommended.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
We are only having a referendum because Cameron was worried about UKIP. Boris will do what is best for Boris, just as Dave did what was best for Dave.
No. He was forced/persuaded to have a referendum when more than half his backbenchers voted for it. UKIP's influence was less of a factor at that time.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
absolutely. i voted YES for very much the same reasons as i will vote LEAVE, and the NO arguments about not being automatically in the EU in the event of a YES vote were simply too good to be true as far as i was concerned
There is nothing average or lacking in intellectual curiosity about a mind properly engaging with Locke, Paine, Burke, Mill, etc.
Clearly the PPEs with a curious minds don't go into politics, just as largely the engineers and scientists don't, the drones end up in government.
There seems to be a surfeit of mediocrity in the Commons these days, there are a few rising stars, but so many dull timer servers. Even the supposed rising starts largely seem to be called such because they are media performers, rather than because they can see far or think deeply.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
British people see themselves as European much less than Scots see themselves as British, I would imagine.
I think you imagine wrong. I know very few who count themselves British
And yet your anti-British movement was rejected by the sovereign will of the Scottish people. Still waiting for your promised emigration in the case of a No vote. In the name of God, go.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.
Perhaps. But opportunism over a matter like this may also be seen negatively. And if I were a Tory Outer I'd be concerned about what kind of Brexit deal PM Boris would negotiate, or whether he'd even negotiate one at all.
It's not a course I'd recommend, but not trying to negotiate a forward-looking exit deal from the EU (i.e. anything other than the mechanics of the divorce) is not an entirely stupid approach. It would signal 'we're not desperate for a deal' and set the stage for a delayed negotiation based not on hurt feelings but what makes mutual sense. And a deal based on mutual interests would be a good deal for both parties.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
We are only having a referendum because Cameron was worried about UKIP. Boris will do what is best for Boris, just as Dave did what was best for Dave.
No. He was forced/persuaded to have a referendum when more than half his backbenchers voted for it. UKIP's influence was less of a factor at that time.
Fair enough. But it was done to protect his position.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
We are only having a referendum because Cameron was worried about UKIP. Boris will do what is best for Boris, just as Dave did what was best for Dave.
Yeah, and? We have politicians not logic machines. If you want a country run by technocrats or AI, well, that's not a liberal democracy... actually that's pretty much what government by the EU is.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
British people see themselves as European much less than Scots see themselves as British, I would imagine.
I think you imagine wrong. I know very few who count themselves British
I don't know anyone in England who regards themselves as European.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
We are only having a referendum because Cameron was worried about UKIP. Boris will do what is best for Boris, just as Dave did what was best for Dave.
Yeah, and? We have politicians not logic machines. If you want a country run by technocrats or AI, well, that's not a liberal democracy... actually that's pretty much what government by the EU is.
It's not a case of what I want. I am merely pointing out that self interest is what has guided both Dave and Boris on this issue.
Also just to attack the other Conservatives. A great quote for a leaflet?
@BBCWorldatOne Alan Johnson: PM's renegotiation was "largely a sideshow…We're now able…to discuss the wider issues of Europe" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/T2QpkPi5R1 Retweeted by Nick Sutton
I heard/read Corbyn's views which were similar and thought swing voters were unlikely to pay attention to him. Johnson's views might be more unhelpful to Cameron, however.
Amber Rudd's infamous brother @RolandRudd Zac Goldsmith just ensured he will lose London Mayor election by opting for Out when vast majority of City want to remain in EU
I hope for Cameron's sake we don't get a terrorist attack in Britain before the referendum.
I hope, for the sake of those who would suffer in such an attack, that we don't get a terrorist attack. The impact on Cameron is neither here not there, frankly.
Anyway, my thoughts FWTW are these:-
1. The negotiated deal is a crock of shit.
2. Gove's statement is a superb statement of what liberal democracy means and what it means for Britain. That and Benn's speech during the Syrian debate are two speeches/statements worth keeping and referring to. Gove admirably sets out what the real issues are not this piffling "How much are these peas?" approach to benefits which Cameron has been peddling - and not very effectively either.
3. Galloway is still an unmentionable - as is Farage for thinking he should be given centre stage - but I am not letting either of those two ghastly people determine my life or decisions, other than a determination never to vote for them.
4. If Boris goes for Leave he should concentrate on how Cameron has failed to ensure a proper balance between Britain's interests and those of the eurozone and that as a consequence a major industry in Britain and for London and the South-East in particular is at risk.
And - in other news and if Southam Observer is around - this article is rather good if depressing and, sadly, accurate.
Just to be clear, I hope nothing happens. What I was getting at is that Cameron's telling people that our security is dependent upon on our membership of the EU. I think this makes Cameron fair game for criticism should something happen that is in part related to the 'refugee' crisis.
I disagree with you on Farage. I certainly don't want him to lead the Leave campaign, but I think he has a role to play. He puts his case across very well and connects a sizeable chunk of the electorate. Hopefully others like Gove can connect with those who are not so keen on Farage.
Agree that Farage will likely play a role. But if he makes it all about him he will do Leave no favours at all.
He just doesn't float my boat, at all. Quite the opposite. There is too much of a whiff of "Aren't all foreigners ghastly" about him, maybe unfairly. And I consider his judgment flaky.
I had breakfast with a fairly senior Spanish politician last week who poured ice cold water on your EU inviting Scotland to secede. He basically said that no Spanish government, unless it was run by Podemos, would ever support any secessionist moves in Europe, and that it would be vetoed by Spain.
Automatic membership would definitely be blocked by Spain and other EU member states. An independent Scotland would be made to apply for EU membership on terms applicable to any other country and over the normal timeframe. This has been the clear Spanish - and EU - position for many years. Only the SNP has pretended otherwise.
Given Scotland exports four times as much to rUK as it does to the EU (excluding oil & gas), it would be pretty bizarre abandoning the 'Union' which is your major trading partner in favour of the 'Union' one quarter of the size.....in any case, Nicola is not promising SINDYREF2 if the vote is for BREXIT.....
To be fair that is a false argument. No one is saying that leaving the UK would end trade between Scotland and the rUK anymore than it would between the UK and the EU if we left. Such arguments really have no credence at all.
It's more the case that the arguments Sturgeon makes for not leaving the EU apply equally - if not more - to Scotland not leaving the UK.
Well yes I agree with you there. It works both ways which is why I have such trouble with the concept of Eurosceptics arguing about sovereignty whilst at the same time being anti Scots Independence. The same arguments apply across the board to both issues. I suppose the only clinching argument for me at the moment is that the UK financially is in a better position to be independent than Scotland. But even there I am sure Scotland will not have that problem for ever.
British people see themselves as European much less than Scots see themselves as British, I would imagine.
I think you imagine wrong. I know very few who count themselves British
I don't know anyone in England who regards themselves as European.
Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
We are only having a referendum because Cameron was worried about UKIP. Boris will do what is best for Boris, just as Dave did what was best for Dave.
No. He was forced/persuaded to have a referendum when more than half his backbenchers voted for it. UKIP's influence was less of a factor at that time.
Fair enough. But it was done to protect his position.
Comments
Sir Trevor Skint
Probably due to the fact most people with opposing views are blocked the man-boy Owen, he's legendary for it! https://t.co/HERVe78YeC
It's important for Remain that Labour supporters know that the party is keen for them to vote - note BigJohn's coment that he probably wouldn't bother and would probably vote Leave if he did. To make that work, Labour has tro fight a separate campaign - that's why it would be really bad politics for Remain if Alan Johnson shared a platform with Cameron.
Odey has been mentioned, Guinness Asset Management, Sloane Robinson are all in favour of Brexit as is Tosca and (I believe) Landsdowne. Our family never takes a public position on anything, but the majority of the SLT are in favour of Brexit.
I haven't had the chance to read the final version properly yet, but based on the version a couple of weeks ago, it's not a good result & it's likely to make me vote leave.
Broken down by 'track', it was:
Rebel = 32.5%
Evangelist = 22.3%
Establishment = 37.9%
Carson (don't see his remaining voters going either Trump or Cruz, maybe abstain or Kasich)
So, it boils down to how much of the Bush and Kasich vote Rubio can mop up now he is the clear anti-Trump/Cruz, when Kasich moves out of the way and how much damage he does to Rubio before he does.
All I know is that the French Ambassador made this comment to Gus O'Donnell. That's not the sort of remark that is made casually to that channel - it may be just a threat but it's significant.
Anyway, my thoughts FWTW are these:-
1. The negotiated deal is a crock of shit.
2. Gove's statement is a superb statement of what liberal democracy means and what it means for Britain. That and Benn's speech during the Syrian debate are two speeches/statements worth keeping and referring to. Gove admirably sets out what the real issues are not this piffling "How much are these peas?" approach to benefits which Cameron has been peddling - and not very effectively either.
3. Galloway is still an unmentionable - as is Farage for thinking he should be given centre stage - but I am not letting either of those two ghastly people determine my life or decisions, other than a determination never to vote for them.
4. If Boris goes for Leave he should concentrate on how Cameron has failed to ensure a proper balance between Britain's interests and those of the eurozone and that as a consequence a major industry in Britain and for London and the South-East in particular is at risk.
And - in other news and if Southam Observer is around - this article is rather good if depressing and, sadly, accurate.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/told-effing-fools-euston-manifesto-10-years/
I can understand the last point completely, I live in a foreign country, but it has 70+ distinct dialects as well as effectively two nationally spoken languages and a couple of supra-regional dialects spoken by half the country. I speak one of the regional dialects moderately, one of the nationally used languages well (English) and bits of a couple of other dialects. I can do business fine, anyone I talk to can converse with me.
The problem is situational awareness, I can rarely understand what who people close by are saying to each other, and they often assume that I can. Hugely annoying, when one person has just told another nearby that he shouldn't mention something to a third person, or they are grumbling about something in the hopes I will do something about it. Even in my own house four languages are spoken regularly, and I speak two of them, my wife often is talking to a friend, and then turns so me and says "Isn't that right" and I have to reply "Isn't what right!"
I imagine people walking down a high street with lots of conversations happening in various languages feel the same way, its disconcerting!
Pong's GOP/POTUS book took a bit of a beating last night - I was pretty exposed to cruz's drifting odds.
From a peak value of ~£2500, it's now worth ~£1700.
Oh well.
Hope other punters did better!
The president, Xi Jinping, studied chemical engineering initially but studied Marxist philosophy and ideological education as a postgrad and obtained a doctorate in law covering law, management, politics and revolutionary history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping
I know that there are a lot of direct costs to an independence referendum, and even bigger indirect costs to the economy, but this is the sort of issue where I depart company from most other unionists. I would think that a referendum should be held whenever there is a genuinely large groundswell for one. Otherwise the issue festers (worse than it does after a close result).
If the SNP are still riding high in the polls and in actual electoral results, and they call for another referendum, I think it would be both politically foolish and morally wrong to deny it.
Oh, by the way, has your finance pall opined on whether the final deal is better/worse/no change on protecting the financial sector than the earlier draft?
There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html
He's not looking forward to it, his organisation looked at the risk of Scottish Independence and their report didn't go down well with the Nats back in 2014.
I've told him some Leavers make the more virulent Nats look well adjusted.
It's time you came off the fence.
@RolandRudd
Zac Goldsmith just ensured he will lose London Mayor election by opting for Out when vast majority of City want to remain in EU
EU/Norway specifics
But I think they would be very resistant - to the extent of becoming pro-EU - if it meant leaving the single market for services, and losing - in particular - the single European financial services passport.
He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.
The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.
Alan Johnson on WATO R4 "I wouldn't say [they]…could be described as the Political All Stars" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/FNik3icw52
The project fear coming from his gob and everything pro EU that even weeks ago he wouldn't have dared said.
The sooner he's gone,the better.
Few of these firms - other than those with a particular axe to grind (Gerry!), close links to politicos (JP), or talking their own book (GS, Tosca) will take a particularly strong stance because of the splits.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/05/jeremy-corbyn-new-politics-self-righteous-left-wallows-in-cruelty
I disagree with you on Farage. I certainly don't want him to lead the Leave campaign, but I think he has a role to play. He puts his case across very well and connects a sizeable chunk of the electorate. Hopefully others like Gove can connect with those who are not so keen on Farage.
And that's their bet...
Perhaps. But opportunism over a matter like this may also be seen negatively. And if I were a Tory Outer I'd be concerned about what kind of Brexit deal PM Boris would negotiate, or whether he'd even negotiate one at all.
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
Cameron deliberately did the cabinet meeting on a Saturday so that the ungagging of Leave ministers would be on a day where people don't follow the news. Thats why BoJo is waiting.
IDS to Boris and others "Your country elected you to govern for them".
Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.
Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?
Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?
Pfft.
We are only having a referendum because Cameron was worried about UKIP. Boris will do what is best for Boris, just as Dave did what was best for Dave.
@BBCWorldatOne
Alan Johnson: PM's renegotiation was "largely a sideshow…We're now able…to discuss the wider issues of Europe" #tw2 pic.twitter.com/T2QpkPi5R1
Retweeted by Nick Sutton
No. He was forced/persuaded to have a referendum when more than half his backbenchers voted for it. UKIP's influence was less of a factor at that time.
There seems to be a surfeit of mediocrity in the Commons these days, there are a few rising stars, but so many dull timer servers. Even the supposed rising starts largely seem to be called such because they are media performers, rather than because they can see far or think deeply.
Still waiting for your promised emigration in the case of a No vote.
In the name of God, go.
It's not a course I'd recommend, but not trying to negotiate a forward-looking exit deal from the EU (i.e. anything other than the mechanics of the divorce) is not an entirely stupid approach. It would signal 'we're not desperate for a deal' and set the stage for a delayed negotiation based not on hurt feelings but what makes mutual sense. And a deal based on mutual interests would be a good deal for both parties.
Fair enough. But it was done to protect his position.
Yeah, and? We have politicians not logic machines. If you want a country run by technocrats or AI, well, that's not a liberal democracy... actually that's pretty much what government by the EU is.
https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/701371614194171905
https://twitter.com/Sarahthoms14/status/701372194711068672
https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/701372528791592964
https://twitter.com/Sarahthoms14/status/701373137422839808
It's not a case of what I want. I am merely pointing out that self interest is what has guided both Dave and Boris on this issue.
He just doesn't float my boat, at all. Quite the opposite. There is too much of a whiff of "Aren't all foreigners ghastly" about him, maybe unfairly. And I consider his judgment flaky.
"EU referendum: David Cameron admits he does not know how migrant benefits system would work.
The Prime Minister tells Andrew Marr 'we're going to settle all that later' "
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-david-cameron-still-does-not-know-how-migrant-benefits-brake-would-work-a6887136.html
We are a democracy, just.