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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave

I’m not a fan of plebiscites simply because often they become a referendum not on the substantive issue of the referendum but on the Government of the day and an opportunity to give the government a kicking without the risk of a change of government.

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FrancisUrquhart

England all-in in the cricket without making the 20 overs...England lose last 7 wickets for 14 runs....criminal.

EPG

He won't risk it - his own leadership hopes depend on this referendum too

Indigo

FPT:

Theuniondivvie said:

Indigo said:

and 8% of its population

I'm glad to see you true Brits have now given up on any silly sentimentalism about 300 years of history and the 'greatness' of the UK. Number crunching is what Rump UK should be all about.

Don't be such a silly sausage Mr Divvie, if you look half a dozen posts below that one you will see me associating myself with the comment of Mr John_M who was indicating in the clearest terms that it would illogical for a BOOer (such as I) to be against Scottish Independence. For the avoidance of doubt I support it - if for no other reason that to reduce the mithering on this forum

Edit: Now pasted in above this posting.

John_M

EPG said:

He won't risk it - his own leadership hopes depend on this referendum too

My prediction is that this budget is going to be as anodyne as Osborne can make it. He can always have another crack later in the FY.

That said (hedge, hedge!), I think this government have rapidly developed a tin ear for public sentiment, so they may surprise me. The logic there would be that disgruntled conservatives have nowhere else to go, no other vehicle to express their opposition.

John_M

FPT:

I don't think it's logical to be a BOOer and not support Scottish independence. I appreciate that we have a shared history, culture and heavily intertwined economy, and that this is on a scale that far outweighs England's brief dalliance with the EEC.

However, for the Goveists amongst us, his argument about democratic accountability has to be universal; if the Scottish people wish to be independent, why shouldn't they?

I have to add that independence as a member of the EU strikes me as odd (Scotland is ~ Finland or Croatia in terms of population), but if that's their wish, then it really has little to do with me.

Indigo

Osborne is boxing himself into a corner, his choices are coming down to pissing off the voters by hammering their pension tax relief and various other wheezes, or pissing off the voters because he fails to balance the budget as promised. Personally I think it will become moot as the EU economy goes to hell in a handcart over the next couple of years, although its possible it might be sooner, was it the 8th of August I should be looking out for ?

NorfolkTilIDie

Osborne's failure to cut the deficit really make his tax giveaways look pretty silly.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Nice one TSE.
Always good to see you slip the blessed AV into a thread.

SouthamObserver

Biris is now unequivocally going for the leadership. Isborne will have to respond. Should be fun.

MarqueeMark

John_M said:

EPG said:

He won't risk it - his own leadership hopes depend on this referendum too

(snip)....disgruntled conservatives have nowhere else to go, no other vehicle to express their opposition.

Oh but they do. In June.

It could be a weird time, with the Conservatives getting a lift in the polls from all those getting a pay-check bounce from the National Living Wage, whilst at the same time those being hurt by pension changes think "sod you..."

kle4

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

kle4

FPT

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

Oh put a sock in it. Bojo's taking his time: we only learned about the deal yesterday, and this is a decision which will change the history of the UK.

Sure he's using his media profile and fame to maximise publicity and impact, but that's what politicians DO. It is indeed their JOB.

Would you have preferred it if David Cameron had announced the referendum down a sidestreet in Swindon, to three local journalists and a spayed cat, rather than in front of number 10 with a dramatic lectern?

Was David Cameron guilty of bare-faced opportunism and pursuit of self interest?

Pfft.

Cameron deliberately did the cabinet meeting on a Saturday so that the ungagging of Leave ministers would be on a day where people don't follow the news. Thats why BoJo is waiting.

Um, wasn't it because the deal only got agreed the night before? Unless you think Cameron cannot get the other leaders to agree to the smallest of requests, but was able to convince them to keep up the masquerade for another half day they could spend on matters more essential to their own electorates, all for the sake of an advantage that confers virtually no advantage.

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

Biris is now unequivocally going for the leadership. Isborne will have to respond. Should be fun.

Liiks like yiu may have a priblem with your keybiard....

EPG

A market in the number of voters who will stop voting Conservative because they did not balance the deficit? It's got to be pretty low
Osborne could always double the pace in 2017 but he'd probably rather be a viable PM candidate

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

This thread should be up until 10pm

kle4

It seems like there's a lot of gloom seeping in on the economy and borrowing figures. Someone will no doubt be along to explain how actually confidence is high, and borrowing is not that bad, but as someone who only follows what is generally reported on such matters, employment figures aside it feels like this first budget will not be a good one, and while it's early in the parliament, tough to regain a reputation if you get trashed early. The Tories don't want to be reliant on the opposition remaining crap, for themselves and for the referendum.

Plato_Says

What gloom is this exactly?

kle4 said:

It seems like there's a lot of gloom seeping in on the economy and borrowing figures. Someone will no doubt be along to explain how actually confidence is high, and borrowing is not that bad, but as someone who only follows what is generally reported on such matters, employment figures aside it feels like this first budget will not be a good one, and while it's early in the parliament, tough to regain a reputation if you get trashed early. The Tories don't want to be reliant on the opposition remaining crap, for themselves and for the referendum.

TheScreamingEagles

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Nice one TSE.
Always good to see you slip the blessed AV into a thread.

Is a thread for everyone.

For fans of AV.

For Leavers.

For Osborne haters.

For Osborne lovers.

For Labour supporters who think the Tories are crap and Corbyn is their shield

TheWhiteRabbit

And to think - AV could have made Rubio the Republican nominee by now!

LadyBucket

One of the few PB headlines I have agreed with, even though I am an 'outer.' I would also include IDS after those remarks about security. I don't think the british public will put up with 'scare' stories about security, it's just one of those absolute no, no's.

I said on the earlier thread, Hilary Benn has given the most woeful interview of the day (so far) IMO. Labour trying to make this about the conservative party infighting won't wash because it's too important. Has Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party ever looked more irrelevant as they do at this moment?

Best interviewer today = Jo Coburn.

another_richard

It will be interesting to see how Osborne equates his usual litany of how much better the UK economy is doing than that of the EU with how disastrous it would be if the UK left the EU.

Cyclefree

I don't know what role Osborne played in the EU negotiations. Pretty poor result all round. If he also hammers pensions and savings he can get stuffed, as far as I'm concerned.

And in response to @RichardTyndall (fpt): I expect the answer from Mr Nabavi and others will be a combination of (1) the best thing we could do given that Brown.... Lisbon..... yadda yadda.... (2) it will be worse if we Leave so still better than that.

I think the idea that this negotiated deal is a marvel, has reformed the EU and our relationship with it etc will not be heard of again. It was the equivalent of honeyed words by a seducer before the act. Now it's just "Get your knickers off. I'm in a hurry. I need to get home to the wife."

MarqueeMark

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Indigo

Cyclefree said:

And in response to @RichardTyndall (fpt): I expect the answer from Mr Nabavi and others will be a combination of (1) the best thing we could do given that Brown.... Lisbon..... yadda yadda.... (2) it will be worse if we Leave so still better than that.

"if the time should come when our Parliament deliberately passes an Act with the intention of repudiating the Treaty [of Rome] or any provision in it or intentionally of acting inconsistently with it and says so in express terms then I should have thought that it would be the duty of our courts to follow the statute of our Parliament"

kle4

Plato_Says said:

What gloom is this exactly?

kle4 said:

It seems like there's a lot of gloom seeping in on the economy and borrowing figures. Someone will no doubt be along to explain how actually confidence is high, and borrowing is not that bad, but as someone who only follows what is generally reported on such matters, employment figures aside it feels like this first budget will not be a good one, and while it's early in the parliament, tough to regain a reputation if you get trashed early. The Tories don't want to be reliant on the opposition remaining crap, for themselves and for the referendum.

With George Osborne saying last month the economic headwinds aren’t going in the UK’s favour, a few days ago the borrowing figures were not moving in Osborne’s favour and with pension experts like Alastair Meeks forecasting Osborne is hoping to raid pension pots without you noticing and you can see this being a very unpopular budget as Osborne has to raises taxes

Is it an oncoming crisis like the last one? Probably not. But fair or not, we are being prepared for more disappointment. I call that gloom, even if compared to some it is not exactly blackest night.

Afternoon all.

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

Plato_Says

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

another_richard

kle4 said:

It seems like there's a lot of gloom seeping in on the economy and borrowing figures. Someone will no doubt be along to explain how actually confidence is high, and borrowing is not that bad, but as someone who only follows what is generally reported on such matters, employment figures aside it feels like this first budget will not be a good one, and while it's early in the parliament, tough to regain a reputation if you get trashed early. The Tories don't want to be reliant on the opposition remaining crap, for themselves and for the referendum.

Most things are linked - extra government spending and tax cuts leads to higher confidence, higher house prices and higher employment.

But it also leads to higher borrowing, lower productivity and a higher current account deficit and more immigration.

Osborne is now getting hoist on his own petard - this is from his 2010 Budget speech:

"Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export."

But in reality the strategy was to borrow and bribe.

Now most governments do that at various times and to various amounts but Osborne has imitated Brown in doing it continually as each political event arises. With Brown it was Iraq War, 2005 election, leadership election, 2010 election. For Osborne it is 2015 election, EuroRef, leadership election ...

Pulpstar

Mysteries of our time: Rubio 4-1 for the presidency.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Mysteries of our time: Rubio 4-1 for the presidency.

Back in 2012 Team Romney were distorting the market in Romney's favour....

Plato_Says

I won a little on the Lottery last night - what's your best suggestion for a bet US or domestic?

I won't hold you to it!

Pulpstar said:

Mysteries of our time: Rubio 4-1 for the presidency.

another_richard

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

rcs1000

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

rcs1000

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

As we aren't planning on requiring French citizens to have visas to enter the UK, it's pretty clear to me that, in or out the risk is basically identical, and both IDS and Cameron are talking shit.

Steven_Whaley

kle4 said:

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

On this particular point I don't believe either of them. They'd both be well advised to drop that particular thread of argument.

Alanbrooke

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Mysteries of our time: Rubio 4-1 for the presidency.

Back in 2012 Team Romney were distorting the market in Romney's favour....

It's an opportunity to take their money then.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

This thread was for you.

malcolmg

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

Hello, Alan, is your other half anywhere near the latest cull at all. I saw some disturbing news on it.

Speedy

By the way for those hoping for a consolidation to Rubio from the Bush vote, this is what the exit polls said about the 7% Bush voters second choices:

Rubio 2%
Kasich 2%
Trump 1%
Carson 1%
Undecided 1%

So Rubio would have closed the gap in S.C with Trump by a net 1%.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

This thread was for you.

I suspect my views on Osborne won't come as a major shock to any of the PB regulars.

tlg86

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Do you think there are zealots on both sides on this site?

another_richard

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

This thread was for you.

I suspect my views on Osborne won't come as a major shock to any of the PB regulars.

Have they changed at all over the last 5 or 10 years ?

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

Hello, Alan, is your other half anywhere near the latest cull at all. I saw some disturbing news on it.

Shes smack in the middle of it but presumably not at risk.

Most of her folks are fuming. Quite how the management are planning to run the place when they've just crapped on the workforce who knows.

Are you anywhere near it ?

Plato_Says

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

Luckyguy1983

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

As we aren't planning on requiring French citizens to have visas to enter the UK, it's pretty clear to me that, in or out the risk is basically identical, and both IDS and Cameron are talking shit.

It has nothing to do with visas from French citizens, he talks about 'Paris-*style* terrorist attacks'. On balance, it is surely fair to assume that having control over our immigration policy will be of some benefit to our security services in their efforts against terrorist attacks.

malcolmg

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriousness the wailing of some Leavers puts me right off, particularly when focused on the evil of opposing politicians acting like politicians and talk of stitch ups and the like, none of which cannot be overcome by the Leave campaign and which comes across as preparing excuses for any potential defeat. Cumulative weight of dissatisfaction with the EU was what swayed me in the end, the over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

Hello, Alan, is your other half anywhere near the latest cull at all. I saw some disturbing news on it.

Shes smack in the middle of it but presumably not at risk.

Most of her folks are fuming. Quite how the management are planning to run the place when they've just crapped on the workforce who knows.

Are you anywhere near it ?

We will have less than the other areas but involved for sure, personally I am safe for sure.

Alanbrooke

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriouhe over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

This thread was for you.

I suspect my views on Osborne won't come as a major shock to any of the PB regulars.

Have they changed at all over the last 5 or 10 years ?

yes substantially

I was happy to vote Cameron in 2010 and was waiting for Osborne to tackle the economic backlog which Brown had created.

I went off Osborne in 2011 when he ducked all the issues of reform and have been watching him turn into Gordon Jnr for the last 5 years.

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

OMG Boris is going to announce his decision in his column in the Telegraph in just under nine hours.

There is even a count down timer! Talk about attention seeking!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12166968/eu-referendum-david-cameron-boris-johnson-live.html

Boris Johnson to reveal stance on EU referendum in Telegraph column as David Cameron urges him not to back Brexit - live
All eyes are on Boris Johnson as he prepares to reveal his EU referendum views in his Telegraph column as David Cameron urges voters to back his EU deal after Cabinet splits - latest updates

He is not coming well out of this. Such barefaced opportunism and pursuit of self interest is not a good look.

"Having weighed up all the pros and cons I will support Leave because I steadfastly believe it is the best way for me to be the next Prime Minister," says Johnson, 48 hours after the referendum was announced.

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.
most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

Hello, Alan, is your other half anywhere near the latest cull at all. I saw some disturbing news on it.

Shes smack in the middle of it but presumably not at risk.

Most of her folks are fuming. Quite how the management are planning to run the place when they've just crapped on the workforce who knows.

Are you anywhere near it ?

We will have less than the other areas but involved for sure, personally I am safe for sure.

I think your senior management have dug a hole for themselves, they will have no goodwill going forward.

Luckyguy1983

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.

another_richard

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

Alanbrooke

This should help you Mr Eagles


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12167084/George-Osborne-will-abolish-pension-perk-in-tax-bombshell-claims-former-minister.html

Big_G_NorthWales

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.

35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points

MarqueeMark

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

Would you accept she has massively exacerbated the problem? One of the reasons I still have a significant degree of faith in Cameron as Prime Minister is that on this migration issue, he was solidly correct - keep the refugees in safety but in the region, and treat the most damaged and traumatised in our hospitals. If the EU had held that line, it would be a wholly more convincing body. But no....

another_richard

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriouhe over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

This thread was for you.

I suspect my views on Osborne won't come as a major shock to any of the PB regulars.

Have they changed at all over the last 5 or 10 years ?

yes substantially

I was happy to vote Cameron in 2010 and was waiting for Osborne to tackle the economic backlog which Brown had created.

I went off Osborne in 2011 when he ducked all the issues of reform and have been watching him turn into Gordon Jnr for the last 5 years.

You can take a Brown budget speech and imagine Osborne giving it:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/mar/16/economy.uk

The same set of party point scoring, cherry picked comparisons to other countries, overcomplicating tax changes and smug self-congratulation.

And of course forecasts which they miss.

Norm

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

There was bound to be a bounce following the deal - the numbers will fall back over the next few weeks . The most important thing about Boris if he joins the Out campaign will be his positivity playing against the negativity of project fear. Much to play for.

Indigo

another_richard said:

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

Blair's fault

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html

The huge increases in migrants over the last decade were partly due to a politically motivated attempt by ministers to radically change the country and "rub the Right's nose in diversity", according to Andrew Neather, a former adviser to Tony Blair, Jack Straw and David Blunkett.

MarqueeMark

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.

35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points

Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....

Richard_Tyndall

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

I disagree. I think one of the masterful things Cameron has done as PM is his handling of the Syrian refugee crisis (excepting his refusal to publically reach the logical conclusion that the EU has made it far worse of course).

He was doing far more than could necessarily have been expected whilst it wasn't a front page issue. Remember the UK had, prior to the Merkel intervention, given more money to the frontline Syrian aid programmes than the whole of the rest of the EU put together.

Then when the EU did decide upon its disastrous response, he stood firm and again took exactly the right action to try and help the refugees in the camps whilst not encouraging so many more to embark on often suicidal journeys by boat to Europe.

I can't see a single way in which he could be criticised over the refugee crisis to date - excepting the EU dimension of course.

Alanbrooke

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

FPT

AlastairMeeks said:

The large part of the country that see membership of the EU as a second order issue will consider that entirely reasonable. It might even reassure them to know that not every Leaver is a zealot.

Heaven forbid.

Although in all seriouhe over the top cries of betrayal from the most vocal Leavers, not so much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FYI - An AV heavy thread is coming in the next two hours.

What? Just as I have to go? For shame.

I couldn't agree more. Nothing makes me want to switch my view more than some of the zealots on here.

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

Anyway youve got the end of the currency markets to keep you busy :-)

This thread was for you.

I suspect my views on Osborne won't come as a major shock to any of the PB regulars.

Have they changed at all over the last 5 or 10 years ?

yes substantially

I was happy to vote Cameron in 2010 and was waiting for Osborne to tackle the economic backlog which Brown had created.

I went off Osborne in 2011 when he ducked all the issues of reform and have been watching him turn into Gordon Jnr for the last 5 years.

You can take a Brown budget speech and imagine Osborne giving it:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/mar/16/economy.uk

The same set of party point scoring, cherry picked comparisons to other countries, overcomplicating tax changes and smug self-congratulation.

And of course forecasts which they miss.

regrettably from Brown in 1997 to Osborne today the UK has had 19 years of politcal chancellors. Reform has died, investment stagnated and vested interests have dug themselves in.

FrancisUrquhart

Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.

Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

Plato_Says

We're of one mind here.

I'm beyond irked at this line from Cameron now after all this.

MarqueeMark said:

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

Would you accept she has massively exacerbated the problem? One of the reasons I still have a significant degree of faith in Cameron as Prime Minister is that on this migration issue, he was solidly correct - keep the refugees in safety but in the region, and treat the most damaged and traumatised in our hospitals. If the EU had held that line, it would be a wholly more convincing body. But no....

Indigo

MarqueeMark said:

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

Would you accept she has massively exacerbated the problem? One of the reasons I still have a significant degree of faith in Cameron as Prime Minister is that on this migration issue, he was solidly correct - keep the refugees in safety but in the region, and treat the most damaged and traumatised in our hospitals. If the EU had held that line, it would be a wholly more convincing body. But no....

Except for the about increasing the rejection rate of legal applicants at embassies and consulates waiting patiently in line so that their place can be taken by illegals running down the tunnel, that bit not so much.

Plato_Says

I haven't seen much on Twitter about it. I couldn't watch.

What were the key points?

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.

35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points

Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

This should help you Mr Eagles


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12167084/George-Osborne-will-abolish-pension-perk-in-tax-bombshell-claims-former-minister.html

That could leave quite a few people seriously p*ssed off - including many I suspect who have planned on access to the lump sum - wonder how it would effect final salary schemes?

another_richard

MarqueeMark said:

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

Would you accept she has massively exacerbated the problem? One of the reasons I still have a significant degree of faith in Cameron as Prime Minister is that on this migration issue, he was solidly correct - keep the refugees in safety but in the region, and treat the most damaged and traumatised in our hospitals. If the EU had held that line, it would be a wholly more convincing body. But no....

Certainly Merkel has made things worse - as I said so.

And I agree Cameron's policy was the correct one.

But from Rotherham to Riyadh every UK government has pandered to Islamic bigotry for decades.

I'm sure you'll remember this individual:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Honeyford

FrancisUrquhart

Hurrrazzzzhhhhh...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3456880/Even-leave-EU-won-t-able-control-immigration-David-Cameron-warns-Cabinet-ministers-say-PM-s-plan-UK-population-hit-80m.html

Plato_Says

I have no faith in the pledge to 'remove those who haven't found work after six months '

We can't deport illegals now nevermind legals out of work.

Indigo said:

MarqueeMark said:

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

Would you accept she has massively exacerbated the problem? One of the reasons I still have a significant degree of faith in Cameron as Prime Minister is that on this migration issue, he was solidly correct - keep the refugees in safety but in the region, and treat the most damaged and traumatised in our hospitals. If the EU had held that line, it would be a wholly more convincing body. But no....

Except for the about increasing the rejection rate of legal applicants at embassies and consulates waiting patiently in line so that their place can be taken by illegals running down the tunnel, that bit not so much.

Steven_Whaley

Alanbrooke said:

Fortunately it's only 4 months of lies and bollocks from both sides imagine if we had the full 3 years.

If only it were true that it's just 4 months... We've already had 40 years of it from both sides!

Referendums decide outcomes but they don't resolve arguments.

I don't know which side will win but I know what will happen next either way:

On 23rd June one side will get what it wants and the other side will have to respect the decision on a practical level - but the arguments about whether the decision is wrong or right will go on in perpetuity. Those on the losing side will not suddenly change their opinions overnight. Then something will inevitably go wrong at some point (whether we're in or out) and we'll have the "I told you so" brigade out in force to play the blame games. Indeed both sides are already blaming each other for things that haven't even happened yet!

The wounds will not heal any time soon.

SouthamObserver

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

another_richard

Richard_Tyndall said:

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

What's homegrown got to do with it?

These people have been allowed to promulgate hateful views/mostly indoctrinated by others from abroad over the last decade or so, and what have the various politicians within the EU done?

Merkel's brain fart has simply added a multiplying factor aided by those who were so keen to welcome all of them too.

I'm sick of them all. And since we can't say "I wouldn't start from here" - what we can do is stop the rot getting even worse.

another_richard said:

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who runs Europol said there's 5000 Jihadists in the EU now - what did the EU do to prevent them?

It's an absurd argument. It takes 20 secs to demolish it by just mentioning Paris/French three month State of Emergency on security and the Brussels lockdown

I'd be insulted if I took them seriously at all.

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Taking a cynical view those 5000 jihadists don't seem to be up to much.

And how many of them are 'home grown' ? Which would make it harder for the EU to 'do' something.

UK politicians haven't done anything either.

Certainly Merkel has made things worse but we can't pretend that the issue is all Merkel's or the EU's fault.

I disagree. I think one of the masterful things Cameron has done as PM is his handling of the Syrian refugee crisis (excepting his refusal to publically reach the logical conclusion that the EU has made it far worse of course).

He was doing far more than could necessarily have been expected whilst it wasn't a front page issue. Remember the UK had, prior to the Merkel intervention, given more money to the frontline Syrian aid programmes than the whole of the rest of the EU put together.

Then when the EU did decide upon its disastrous response, he stood firm and again took exactly the right action to try and help the refugees in the camps whilst not encouraging so many more to embark on often suicidal journeys by boat to Europe.

I can't see a single way in which he could be criticised over the refugee crisis to date - excepting the EU dimension of course.

And where have I criticised Cameron over his handling of Syrian refugees ?

FrancisUrquhart

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

Also, I don't think terrorists worry too much legal movement between countries...

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.

Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3m3 minutes ago
I understand Number 10 has still not been informed of @MayorofLondon decision on Brexit referendum
7 retweets 3 likes

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.

Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3m3 minutes ago
I understand Number 10 has still not been informed of @MayorofLondon decision on Brexit referendum
7 retweets 3 likes

Well somebody has "informed" the BBC....it is their big breaking story.

SouthamObserver

FrancisUrquhart said:

Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.

Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

More accurately, Boris launches campaign to succeed David Cameron as prime minister.

Wanderer

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

Also, I don't think terrorists worry too much legal movement between countries...

Plus the 7/7 terrorists were British. All the necessary staff can be recruited locally.

Wanderer

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.

Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3m3 minutes ago
I understand Number 10 has still not been informed of @MayorofLondon decision on Brexit referendum
7 retweets 3 likes

He's only a backbencher I suppose. Strictly speaking would he be expected to?

Richard_Tyndall

another_richard said:

And where have I criticised Cameron over his handling of Syrian refugees ?

Sorry I was reacting to your comment that "UK politicians haven't done anything either". Since the discussion had been about Merkel and the EU making things worse with allowing all the refugees in I worked from that point. Clearly I misunderstood.

MP_SE

Woohoo

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/701423779923304449

SouthamObserver

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.

Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3m3 minutes ago
I understand Number 10 has still not been informed of @MayorofLondon decision on Brexit referendum
7 retweets 3 likes

Well somebody has "informed" the BBC....it is their big breaking story.

It's been pretty obvious for a couple of days!

Boris probably did not inform the BBC, a reporter is likely to have asked. Maybe someone at Number 10 could have done the same.

Fenster

Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

NorfolkTilIDie

I like Alan Johnson but think he's on thin ground mocking likes of Michael Gove as not being very bright!!

Big_G_NorthWales

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.

35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points

Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....

First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain

Plato_Says

So let's not bother trying to reduce the risk from the Schengen area?

This seems a peculiar argument to me.

Wanderer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

Also, I don't think terrorists worry too much legal movement between countries...

Plus the 7/7 terrorists were British. All the necessary staff can be recruited locally.

NorfolkTilIDie

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

Also, I don't think terrorists worry too much legal movement between countries...

They might not worry much but the authorities do.

Also its true temporary holiday makers can do attacks, but they can't form sleeper cells.

NorfolkTilIDie

Wanderer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

Also, I don't think terrorists worry too much legal movement between countries...

Plus the 7/7 terrorists were British. All the necessary staff can be recruited locally.

Matter of quantity, no?? The more potential sleeper cells in UK the more attacks possible...

FrancisUrquhart

NorfolkTilIDie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

Also, I don't think terrorists worry too much legal movement between countries...

They might not worry much but the authorities do.

Also its true temporary holiday makers can do attacks, but they can't form sleeper cells.

We don't have a great record on keeping track of anybody who enters the country, so I don't think they have too much to worry about that either. We aren't going to just stop German's coming on their holidays if we are our of the EU, and from there it isn't difficult to disappear if you really want to.

SouthamObserver

Fenster said:

Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

Indigo

Plato_Says said:

I have no faith in the pledge to 'remove those who haven't found work after six months '

We can't deport illegals now nevermind legals out of work.

We barely deport any failed asylum seekers after they have exhausted their final appeal either, the are apparently over 100,000 Somali's in the UK that have failed their appeals but not been ejected, the overall deportation rate is typically 4-6%

Tykejohnno

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Nice one TSE.
Always good to see you slip the blessed AV into a thread.

Is a thread for everyone.

For fans of AV.

For Leavers.

For Osborne haters.

For Osborne lovers.

For Labour supporters who think the Tories are crap and Corbyn is their shield

Nothing on leftwing supporters who think camerons the new bee's knees ?

FrancisUrquhart

NorfolkTilIDie said:

I like Alan Johnson but think he's on thin ground mocking likes of Michael Gove as not being very bright!!

Some might unkindly say that statements says more about his own intelligence than that of his opponents. I don't think anybody needs reminding of what a berk he was as shadow chancellor...deficit, no debt, no i mean interest rates, no erhhh....this numbers stuff is hard.

another_richard

Richard_Tyndall said:

another_richard said:

And where have I criticised Cameron over his handling of Syrian refugees ?

Sorry I was reacting to your comment that "UK politicians haven't done anything either". Since the discussion had been about Merkel and the EU making things worse with allowing all the refugees in I worked from that point. Clearly I misunderstood.

No problem.

My original point was that we're can't blame the EU or Merkel for ALL of the jihadists currently within the EU as some of them would have been home grown while others would have been able to migrate into the EU for other reasons.

Merkel's madness has caused enough problems to highlight without the need to blame it for other things.

Plato_Says

If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.

I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.

My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,

As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?

What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.

35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie points

Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....

First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remain

MP_SE

Disgusting but LOL. The odds on Leave have been shortening all day. Could be a good opportunity to top up any Remain positions as it is drifting towards 1.40 again.

https://twitter.com/camillalong/status/701430285292990465

Wanderer

Speedy said:

By the way for those hoping for a consolidation to Rubio from the Bush vote, this is what the exit polls said about the 7% Bush voters second choices:

Rubio 2%
Kasich 2%
Trump 1%
Carson 1%
Undecided 1%

So Rubio would have closed the gap in S.C with Trump by a net 1%.

Interesting though not really surprising. Voters for candidates other than Trump are not necessarily primarily anti-Trump. When, say, Kasich drops out some of that 2% will end up with Trump too. Voters are contrary-minded beasts.

Mind you, at least they've all got the good taste not to have Cruz as a second choice.

Fenster

SouthamObserver said:

Fenster said:

Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.

If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.

If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.

Yeah, that's why I said 'if' (though he has always been adept at taking the piss out of the EU's jobsworth rulings).

But I did hear on the news earlier that Boris has already set out his negotiating positions (months back) and he deems them not met, especially with regard to the city/financial sector.

Wanderer

Meanwhile Boris comes to the rescue of my beleaguered Leave position.

NorfolkTilIDie

Plato_Says said:

So let's not bother trying to reduce the risk from the Schengen area?

This seems a peculiar argument to me.

Wanderer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

Also, I don't think terrorists worry too much legal movement between countries...

Plus the 7/7 terrorists were British. All the necessary staff can be recruited locally.

And not an argument Cameron can really deploy. "Yes lots of German Syrians could come here and plot terror attacks here, but loads of Brits are dodgy and we are crap at tracking tourists, so the more the merrier."

Indigo

SouthamObserver said:

We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.

And whether we can eject or exclude unsavoury people with unsavoury friends. We have to put up with our own inciters and hate preachers, I don't see why we should be forced to accept other peoples. Most states have the ability to declare a foreign national "persona non grata" and chuck them out the country, we cant at the moment with any EU citizen.