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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In a week dominated by the EU UKIP’s Douglas Carswell is th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In a week dominated by the EU UKIP’s Douglas Carswell is this week’s PB/Polling Matters special guest
In this week’s episode Keiran Pedley interviews UKIP MP Douglas Carswell about his political journey, thoughts on the EU referendum campaign, the future of UKIP and whether he might rejoin the Conservatives in the future.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/02/23/house-of-cards-season-four-first-look-review-a-deliciously-dark/
Can't wait.....next weekend is a total write off for me.
Coming up tomorrow a PB favourite. Roger with his Oscar predictions
Cruz 35
Trump 20
Rubio 8
Carson 7
Kasich 4
http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/news/politics/election-2016/
Don't forget Texas may be proportional, however there is a 20% barrier for delegates, only those who pass it are assigned delegates proportionally.
And that any PB reader is not seeking advice in the Clinton v Sanders contest
Plus I'm the publisher of this thread.
That way you won't feel sorry for him, he's probably also the least corrupt.
The person who is meant to be 'organising' the local campaign has given me emails to forward to people I know about the EU. Nothing tangible is planned until mid-March.
That is not campaigning."
Please: don't. Vote Leave are like lambs to the slaughter right now.
I don't think Boris will kick in much until the start of May. I'm not sure what Gove is planning.
The rest of the cabinet may not have the time.
I am sorely tempted to spam these two email addresses (I can't find any other) and ask them what they're playing at:
press@voteleave.uk
jobs@voteleave.uk
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/contact
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/702613511214604289/photo/1
He will if that is the result in Texas.
I'd encourage maximum pressure from fellow Leavers:
The Vote Leave Board:
Arabella Arkwright, a Director of Core Health and Wellness
Harriet Bridgeman, founder of Bridgeman Images
Douglas Carswell MP.
Peter Cruddas, founder of CMC Markets.
Alan Halsall, former owner and Chairman of Silver Cross
Dan Hannan, MEP.
Daniel Hodson, Chairman of the Compliance Committee, former Chief Executive of LIFFE.
Bernard Jenkin MP.
Khalid Mahmood, MP.
John Mills, Chairman of John Mills Limited (JML).
Jon Moynihan, former CEO and Executive Chairman of PA Consulting.
Graham Stringer, MP.
Stuart Wheeler, founder of the IG Group.
Victoria Woodcock, Company Secretary and Operations Director.
Cross-Party Parliamentary Planning Committee to liaise with senior MPs
Steve Baker (Co-Chairman, Conservatives for Britain)
Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
Nigel Dodds (DUP)
Kate Hoey (Co-Chair, Labour Leave)
Kelvin Hopkins (L)
Bernard Jenkin (C)
Owen Paterson (C)
Graham Stringer (L)
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
New immigration numbers out tomorrow. Will play into EU Ref debate. A useful piece by @jdportes http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-watch-thursday’s-immigration-figures#.Vs4qV1OLSWi …
I doubt they will give him a pass if he strikes another loss.
Given how often he repeats the point, perhaps 'Take back control' should be the Leave slogan?
If it's true, I'd say it's a major error on No. 10's part.
A Project Fear in reverse would need to focus on the fact that there will be more integration, determined by the EU, including, for instance:-
- quotas of migrants we are required to take in;
- VAT on currently zero-rated items eg food and children's clothes
- more harmonised taxation, including taxes imposed by the EU
- increasing contributions and the complete loss of the British rebate, costing each family £xxx p.a.
Etc etc.
Now I don't know how likely any of these are. But I've picked them because they've all been mooted at some point in the recent past (and Martin Schultz was mentioning the migrant quota issue only this morning on the radio) and so it is possible that they could be revived.
But the aim of any well run Leave campaign should be to sow doubt about what remaining in the EU means and that this will cost people real money. People will worry about losing jobs if we leave. So Leave need to make them worry about what it will cost them if we stay. Plus it should put Remain on the defensive. If Remain have to start denying that VAT won't be put on food, it still sows a doubt in people's minds and that is time that cannot be spent on other arguments.
Similarly, the migrant quota issue will make people worry about who might be let in and helps undermine the EU keeps us safe argument.
Leave need to pick the most unattractive bits of the EU and say that remaining means more of this and costs you this - it has to be made personal and relevant.
Whether they are able to do this seems doubtful to me.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12171352/Silver-haired-Saga-louts-causing-trouble-in-the-Lake-District.html
On a serious note Kasich's town halls have been excellent. I'd go for Kasich if I had a free choice of any of the bods.
Gove has conducted himself with the utmost integrity and done everything possible to act with dignity, and keep it non-personal.
If Cameron pushes him too far, and it turns nasty; I think he will walk.
They've said a million because it sounds impressive but I'd guess it will be at least 2.
The Telegraph understands that Mr Gove could be removed as Justice Secretary in the weeks following the in-out referendum on membership of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12172445/Michael-Gove-faces-sack-over-his-opposition-to-European-Union.html
It makes zero sense to attack someone who has been so polite in their dissention. It would put Gove in a "nothing to lose" situation and makes a mockery of allowing cabinet members to campaign for out.
It also smacks of weakness.
I don't think Gove can do that and be true to himself.
I think Gove is toast anyway after the referendum. Dave bears grudges and really detests it when he feels that longstanding allies have gone against him.
If this referendum is lost by Leave it will be because Cameron has pushed to limit every power available to his office to bribe, blackmail and threaten the cabinet, MPs and Civil Service. Tory Leave supporters should know they could win a second one once they have someone in tune with them in No 10.
But I'd have thought he'd stick to the plan of reconciliation if he wins. The nuclear option would surely only come out if Leave looked like winning as we approach the finish.
When Remain win, the next reshuffle will be to put all of Osborne's team in place for the handover...
Tiger issued a video today of him swinging at a golf simulator, with the caption progressing nicely. I don't know when the video was shot.
'Cameron's negotiation has shown why it is now too late to reform the EU from within in any significant way.'
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6954770/Lord-Owen-EU-has-tested-us-to-breaking-point-Now-its-time-to-leave.html
Note the story also talks about a promotion for Boris.
Story dissing Gove, talking up Boris appearing in the Telegraph, now I wonder if any Telegraph columnist had a hand in this story to cause problems for
1) Gove who has outshone Boris this past week
2) Cause grief for Dave after that kicking he gave Boris
Where do they get them from?
She seems to always run two back to back - war on women, institutional racism
Cameron has done opposite. He tried to fix a dodgy question, eliminate purdah, have Osborne threaten MPs with not having careers if they backed wrong side, have shortest campaign possible, gag ministers, broke agreement not to push his deal while they were gagged, lie about migrant camps in Kent, block civil service from briefing their own ministers (but only if they backed Leave!) and now unsubtely raise the possibility of sack for any Leave minister too vocal.
The HRC machine should get rolling in the deep south soon enough.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-35649985
It's really not hard:
Canvassing>leafleting>nothing
They probably can't manage traditional canvassing (no software or data), so leafleting will have to do. Obtain ward maps, divide into sections, deliver first leaflet to whole area, repeat with second. Very easy and can be done by anyone at any time.
The Vote Leave staff must be bone idle, inexperienced or aren't prioritising effectively.
Though of course after waging all out war on Leave supporters, he'll then demand reconciliation and unity afterwards.
Trump said that endorsements don't matter yesterday, and was promptly endorsed by 2 GOP congressmen.
Maybe he should stick to Shakespeare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEryAoLfnAA
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12172445/Michael-Gove-faces-sack-over-his-opposition-to-European-Union.html
http://www.lorddavidowen.co.uk/
First response from General Sir Michael Rose: "I'm delighted Downing Street has taken me off the list"
A shame really - of those on offer, if Remain were to win I'd prefer Cameron to stay on, but struggle to see how he can last long with this much bitterness in evidence.
Should Leave win, well, I get the main thing and will have to hope Boris is a moderate, safe pair of hands.
David Allen Green @DavidAllenGreen
The Prime Minister has ordered that the Lord Chancellor cannot now have advice on EU law. Extraordinary. https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/702546674586140672 …