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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Osborne Supremacy might be over but the Osborne Legacy

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Osborne Supremacy might be over but the Osborne Legacy could see the next Tory leader have an Osborne Identity

The Sunday Times story above doesn’t surprise me. Osborne seems more comfortable being the éminence grise to Tory leaders than being leader himself, and lest we forget in 2005, he declined to run for the leadership, backing the more electable candidate (and his friend) he could well do the same again in the next leadership contest.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    First!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880
    Osborne is the 16th Earl of Warwick.

    (I know I said this on the previous thread, but it seems applicable to this one).
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880
    Wow.

    Aus GP. Someone's been lucky.
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    Matt Hancock ..... very unlikely in my opinion, he simply isn't sufficiently well known within the party's membership, but then again if one discounts the present front runners and certainly some, including Boris, Osborne, May, etc seem to have little chance, then over the next 3 years say, there's probably some prospect for the odd rank outsider to emerge from the chasing pack. As such, Hancock has as much chance as around 15 - 20 others and therefore 80/1 is probably fair value. I've had half a pint's worth on him - I doubt he's worth any more of my money.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Matt Hancock co-authored a book, Masters of Nothing, on the last financial crash.
    http://www.zahawi.com/mon/authors.php

    You might want to read it, and ask yourself why the book is not mentioned on either Hancock's Wikipedia page or even his own website, http://www.matthewhancock.co.uk/

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    IDS will be on The Andrew Marr Show at 9am Sunday. Could it be his Howe resignation moment? Unmissable TV
    The interest question is does IDS have any "documentation" that refutes the spin line from No10 and No11. It would be severely embarrassing if it came to light that people had written him notes or instructions that were at odds with what has been claimed.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2016
    To put things into perspective, for the same potential reward of £160, I'd far rather back Michael Gove for a tenner at 16/1 being the next Prime Minster than wager two quid at 80/1 on Matt Hancock becoming the next Tory leader. Somewhat like comparing apples with pears I appreciate, but worth comparing nonetheless from a value point of view.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    edited March 2016

    Wow.

    Aus GP. Someone's been lucky.

    To anyone who was thinking of watching later, do.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    To put things into perspective, for the same potential reward of £160, I'd far rather back Michael Gove for a tenner at 16/1 being the next Prime Minster than wager two quid at 80/1 on Matt Hancock becoming the next Tory leader. Somewhat like comparing apples with pears I appreciate, but worth comparing nonetheless from a value point of view.

    Two questions before backing Gove: was he successful in overcoming his fear of flying? And is his unpopularity personal or due only to his reign at Education?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880

    To put things into perspective, for the same potential reward of £160, I'd far rather back Michael Gove for a tenner at 16/1 being the next Prime Minster than wager two quid at 80/1 on Matt Hancock becoming the next Tory leader. Somewhat like comparing apples with pears I appreciate, but worth comparing nonetheless from a value point of view.

    Two questions before backing Gove: was he successful in overcoming his fear of flying? And is his unpopularity personal or due only to his reign at Education?
    He comes across as intelligent, thoughtful (not always the same things) and fairly successful. I can't see any real reason to dislike him from his presentation or mannerisms, so I guess it's a combination of the hes-a-tory effect and what he did at education.

    Didn't know about his fear of flying.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    The curse of differential front end grip strikes again!
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    A rather messy header. Remember the adage 'Good design is never having to say click here'
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    To put things into perspective, for the same potential reward of £160, I'd far rather back Michael Gove for a tenner at 16/1 being the next Prime Minster than wager two quid at 80/1 on Matt Hancock becoming the next Tory leader. Somewhat like comparing apples with pears I appreciate, but worth comparing nonetheless from a value point of view.

    Two questions before backing Gove: was he successful in overcoming his fear of flying? And is his unpopularity personal or due only to his reign at Education?
    He comes across as intelligent, thoughtful (not always the same things) and fairly successful. I can't see any real reason to dislike him from his presentation or mannerisms, so I guess it's a combination of the hes-a-tory effect and what he did at education.

    Didn't know about his fear of flying.
    Michael Gove took some sort of course to overcome his fear of flying but if it was not successful, I doubt he'd even stand, since the PM must spend a good deal of time in the air between summits and junkets. I'm not sure how punters can know this before putting their money down: perhaps check where Gove spent his holidays in the past couple of years?
  • Options
    O/T

    ***** FREE MONEY ALERT ***** FREE MONEY ALERT *****

    Back Newcastle Utd to be relegated with Betfair Exchange at 1.61 = 1.58 net, staking 67.3% and back them also to stay up with BetVictor at 3.25, staking the remaining 32.7% to earn a profit either way of 6.3% on your combined stake over the next 7 weeks ..... beats working for a living!
    DYOR.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    I wonder what Jon Stewart (he of the popcorn video above) is thinking these days, having hung up his microphone only a few months before the mother of all Presidential election campaigns?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    IDS will hope he's better and more convincing on Marr today than he was on his last appearance.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Matt Hancock: I'd like to say he has no chance but I'm not even sure Google has heard of him
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966



    Michael Gove took some sort of course to overcome his fear of flying but if it was not successful, I doubt he'd even stand, since the PM must spend a good deal of time in the air between summits and junkets. I'm not sure how punters can know this before putting their money down: perhaps check where Gove spent his holidays in the past couple of years?

    Its cured

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/atticus/article1357312.ece
    Michael Gove has revealed that he went under hypnosis to cure his fear of flying. It’s long been known that the education secretary trembled at the prospect of air travel. He once described how even slight bumps reduced him to a “clammier, paler, quicker-pulsed basketcase”.

    But he was spotted by The Jewish Chronicle newspaper on a recent El Al flight to Tel Aviv, and admitted that he owed his more relaxed attitude to sessions with a hypnotist. This is good news for Mrs Gove, the journalist Sarah Vine, who once wrote that air travel would be easier if she could book Michael in with the bags.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    I knew TSE was going to tip Hancock. Going purely on what I've seen of him on Question Time and other interviews I cannot stand the guy - which probably means he will be Tory leader, but maybe not this time.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    I agree with the main thrust of this article, although it would demonstrate an unwonted level of self-awareness from Osborne to pull out in the first place.

    But I don't think Hancock is the one to watch. He is simply too junior. A candidate, even a nominee for another figure, has to have some standing if only to get noticed (look at how David Davis struggled in 2001 before rejoining the Shadow Cabinet).

    If there is to be such a candidate, Hands is perhaps more likely. But surely the most likely of all would be Amber Rudd, his former PPS and actually at cabinet rank already.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Indigo said:



    Michael Gove took some sort of course to overcome his fear of flying but if it was not successful, I doubt he'd even stand, since the PM must spend a good deal of time in the air between summits and junkets. I'm not sure how punters can know this before putting their money down: perhaps check where Gove spent his holidays in the past couple of years?

    Its cured

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/atticus/article1357312.ece
    Michael Gove has revealed that he went under hypnosis to cure his fear of flying. It’s long been known that the education secretary trembled at the prospect of air travel. He once described how even slight bumps reduced him to a “clammier, paler, quicker-pulsed basketcase”.

    But he was spotted by The Jewish Chronicle newspaper on a recent El Al flight to Tel Aviv, and admitted that he owed his more relaxed attitude to sessions with a hypnotist. This is good news for Mrs Gove, the journalist Sarah Vine, who once wrote that air travel would be easier if she could book Michael in with the bags.
    Cool. In that case, Gove backers can punt with confidence.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Be fair Roger, he was a better leader than Corbyn is. IDS comes across as faintly dim and rather useless, while Corbyn is just terrifying.

    I know you are no fan of Corbyn, before you say it. But the implication that no other group could make such a cretinous mistake is one that was firmly disproved seven months ago.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Corbyn
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:



    Michael Gove took some sort of course to overcome his fear of flying but if it was not successful, I doubt he'd even stand, since the PM must spend a good deal of time in the air between summits and junkets. I'm not sure how punters can know this before putting their money down: perhaps check where Gove spent his holidays in the past couple of years?

    Its cured

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/atticus/article1357312.ece
    Michael Gove has revealed that he went under hypnosis to cure his fear of flying. It’s long been known that the education secretary trembled at the prospect of air travel. He once described how even slight bumps reduced him to a “clammier, paler, quicker-pulsed basketcase”.

    But he was spotted by The Jewish Chronicle newspaper on a recent El Al flight to Tel Aviv, and admitted that he owed his more relaxed attitude to sessions with a hypnotist. This is good news for Mrs Gove, the journalist Sarah Vine, who once wrote that air travel would be easier if she could book Michael in with the bags.
    As any PBer would recommend: http://www.seat61.com/
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: no spoilers, but I think the race highlights are likely to be worth watching.

    May well wait until them to write the post-race piece.
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    Indigo said:



    Michael Gove took some sort of course to overcome his fear of flying but if it was not successful, I doubt he'd even stand, since the PM must spend a good deal of time in the air between summits and junkets. I'm not sure how punters can know this before putting their money down: perhaps check where Gove spent his holidays in the past couple of years?

    Its cured

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/atticus/article1357312.ece
    Michael Gove has revealed that he went under hypnosis to cure his fear of flying. It’s long been known that the education secretary trembled at the prospect of air travel. He once described how even slight bumps reduced him to a “clammier, paler, quicker-pulsed basketcase”.

    But he was spotted by The Jewish Chronicle newspaper on a recent El Al flight to Tel Aviv, and admitted that he owed his more relaxed attitude to sessions with a hypnotist. This is good news for Mrs Gove, the journalist Sarah Vine, who once wrote that air travel would be easier if she could book Michael in with the bags.
    "This is good news for Mrs Gove, the journalist Sarah Vine, who once wrote that air travel would be easier if she could book Michael in with the bags."

    Not a very devoted way for a wife to treat her husband ..... she'll be wanting to have him transported in the luggage hold next!

    Oi ..... it's the way I tell 'em!
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016
    Matt Hancock? Hahaha haha.... Kids Company
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Indigo said:

    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Corbyn
    Be serious
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Gove is a far better prospect than Hancock (the sound of a barrel being scraped).

    A leader that spent more time in the UK would not be a bad thing. Too many Prime Ministers get bored of domestic politics and decide to strut the world stage pontificating.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Matt Hancock? Hahaha haha....

    Well quite.

    What was it that first attracted TSE to the idea of a white independently educated pro-hunting Oxford PPE for Tory leader, he's even from an ancient rural village as well!
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Roger said:

    Indigo said:

    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Corbyn
    Be serious
    I was. The left have no room for commenting on the Tories being daft enough to appoint electoral liabilities like IDS when they are happy to appoint huge electoral liabilities like Corbyn
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    "Demonstrators blocked a highway in Arizona as Donald Trump prepared to stage a rally near Phoenix."

    That should work well then. Let me think this one through ... I don't like other people voting for a candidate I dislike so I'll inconvenience them until they don't.

    Sorry, but if a bunch of virtue signallers inconvenienced me because I might vote for Jezza, I'd immediately for the loon.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    CD13 said:

    "Demonstrators blocked a highway in Arizona as Donald Trump prepared to stage a rally near Phoenix."

    That should work well then. Let me think this one through ... I don't like other people voting for a candidate I dislike so I'll inconvenience them until they don't.

    Sorry, but if a bunch of virtue signallers inconvenienced me because I might vote for Jezza, I'd immediately for the loon.

    Its the modern politics, they don't actually care if Trump is elected, so long as they have shown all their friends of social media that they "took a stand" and "made a difference", see #bringbackourgirls
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    ydoethur said:

    I agree with the main thrust of this article, although it would demonstrate an unwonted level of self-awareness from Osborne to pull out in the first place.

    But I don't think Hancock is the one to watch. He is simply too junior. A candidate, even a nominee for another figure, has to have some standing if only to get noticed (look at how David Davis struggled in 2001 before rejoining the Shadow Cabinet).

    If there is to be such a candidate, Hands is perhaps more likely. But surely the most likely of all would be Amber Rudd, his former PPS and actually at cabinet rank already.

    Yeah, I think Amber Rudd is a better prospect given Hancock is going to struggle to break through to cabinet minister level anytime soon. Amber has the advantage that she could be a plausible candidate either this summer or in a couple of years depending on when the leadership election was.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Be fair Roger, he was a better leader than Corbyn is. IDS comes across as faintly dim and rather useless, while Corbyn is just terrifying.

    I know you are no fan of Corbyn, before you say it. But the implication that no other group could make such a cretinous mistake is one that was firmly disproved seven months ago.
    For all his limited appeal at least Corbyn is a human being. For those ideologically on the 'left' he makes sense. Just an old fashioned lefty whose time has probably passsed.

    IDS is an altogether different kettle of fish. We can all agree he's hopeless but beyond that to non Tories he's also as unpleasant and disloyal a human being as even Shakespeare could have dreamt up
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    General Boles
    A happier, simpler time @MartinHoscik https://t.co/UXLDD2yNKG
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Matt Hancock? Hahaha haha.... Kids Company

    You've found him then...
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880
    CD13 said:

    "Demonstrators blocked a highway in Arizona as Donald Trump prepared to stage a rally near Phoenix."

    That should work well then. Let me think this one through ... I don't like other people voting for a candidate I dislike so I'll inconvenience them until they don't.

    Sorry, but if a bunch of virtue signallers inconvenienced me because I might vote for Jezza, I'd immediately for the loon.

    It's a bit like the Guardian's write-a-letter campaign - it has no positive effect except making the protesters feel good about themselves, and actually works to persuade people towards the opposite view.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

    I don't see fawning sycophants on here, just people who (in the large) agree with what Cameron is doing. Is that so unreasonable?
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

    I don't see fawning sycophants on here, just people who (in the large) agree with what Cameron is doing. Is that so unreasonable?
    You clearly don't read all of the posts. I won't name names but there are several people who have stated they favour Leave but don't want to see Cameron resign ib perceived failure.

    Incidentally, what IS Cameron doing?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Be fair Roger, he was a better leader than Corbyn is. IDS comes across as faintly dim and rather useless, while Corbyn is just terrifying.

    I know you are no fan of Corbyn, before you say it. But the implication that no other group could make such a cretinous mistake is one that was firmly disproved seven months ago.
    For all his limited appeal at least Corbyn is a human being. For those ideologically on the 'left' he makes sense. Just an old fashioned lefty whose time has probably passsed.

    IDS is an altogether different kettle of fish. We can all agree he's hopeless but beyond that to non Tories he's also as unpleasant and disloyal a human being as even Shakespeare could have dreamt up
    For all his limited appeal at least CorbynIDS is a human being. For those ideologically on the 'leftright' he makes sense. Just an old fashioned leftyrighty whose time has probably passsed.

    IDSCorbyn is an altogether different kettle of fish. We can all agree he's hopeless but beyond that to non Toriessocialists he's also as unpleasant and disloyal a human being as even Shakespeare could have dreamt up
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    Indigo said:

    Roger said:

    Indigo said:

    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Corbyn
    Be serious
    I was. The left have no room for commenting on the Tories being daft enough to appoint electoral liabilities like IDS when they are happy to appoint huge electoral liabilities like Corbyn
    Activists on both sides despise the "middle ground" - but it's where elections are won and lost.

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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    edited March 2016
    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

    I don't see fawning sycophants on here, just people who (in the large) agree with what Cameron is doing. Is that so unreasonable?
    You clearly don't read all of the posts. I won't name names but there are several people who have stated they favour Leave but don't want to see Cameron resign ib perceived failure.

    Incidentally, what IS Cameron doing?
    I (marginally) prefer Leave and don't want Cameron to resign in perceived failure but will probably vote Leave as I see this issue as more important than today's politics. There will be people who (with very good reason) view the priority as the opposite.

    Imagine switching Cameron with other long-serving PMs. Thatcher did a lot of good but her legacy (and her party and what she stood by) was tarnished by the manner of her resigning in perceived failure in the end. On the other end of the spectrum lefties may think Blair did a lot of good (I don't see it) but the way he was forced out by Brown has led to a resurgence on the right and a destruction of the left.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Poor Steve Hilton. He spent years trying to make the Conservative Party appeal to a more progressive broad minded CIVILIZED voter
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Perhaps IDS was misquoted when mentioning GO was a cock perhaps he said Hancock
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880

    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

    I don't see fawning sycophants on here, just people who (in the large) agree with what Cameron is doing. Is that so unreasonable?
    You clearly don't read all of the posts. I won't name names but there are several people who have stated they favour Leave but don't want to see Cameron resign ib perceived failure.

    Incidentally, what IS Cameron doing?
    That's roughly my position, with two caveats: there may be no need to resign immediately if leave wins, and it depends on the closeness of the result. If leave were to win more than 70-30, he'd have to go immediately and the party would have to out a caretaker in place (*). 60-40 to leave, and he may stand down but remain in place until after a new leadership election. Anything closer than 55-45 and I think he'd be tempted to stay on for a while, whilst forming a committee of leavers from all parties to sort out what they want from the negotiations.

    Even then, I doubt he'd see the year out.

    And I am not a fawning sycophant ...

    (*) It'll be interesting to see who gets the caretaker job. Would Gove or Boris want it, or would they want to keep their powder dry for the main leadership election? Perhaps May might make a good caretaker despite her remain credentials, as long as she guarantees not to stand for the main election and leaves EU matters to a pseudo-cabinet of wise leavers?
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

    I don't see fawning sycophants on here, just people who (in the large) agree with what Cameron is doing. Is that so unreasonable?
    You clearly don't read all of the posts. I won't name names but there are several people who have stated they favour Leave but don't want to see Cameron resign ib perceived failure.

    Incidentally, what IS Cameron doing?
    I (marginally) prefer Leave and don't want Cameron to resign in perceived failure but will probably vote Leave as I see this issue as more important than today's politics. There will be people who (with very good reason) view the priority as the opposite.

    Imagine switching Cameron with other long-serving PMs. Thatcher did a lot of good but her legacy (and her party and what she stood by) was tarnished by the manner of her resigning in perceived failure in the end. On the other end of the spectrum lefties may think Blair did a lot of good (I don't see it) but the way he was forced out by Brown has led to a resurgence on the right and a destruction of the left.
    Fine, but you still didn't answer my question.

    Look, Cameron is brilliant at saying things, but he's not very good at doing things, which when the dust settles is what he'll be judged on. He's about to feel very lonely and exposed, let's see what he's made of.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621

    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

    I don't see fawning sycophants on here, just people who (in the large) agree with what Cameron is doing. Is that so unreasonable?
    You clearly don't read all of the posts. I won't name names but there are several people who have stated they favour Leave but don't want to see Cameron resign ib perceived failure
    That's a sign of sycophancy? I've said that, and it's because of the choices on offer, despite him being wrong on the EU, camerons been OK as PM. Not great, but we could have done worse and I at least get the impression he is trying to appeal to the centre. I dont think he can hang on long even if remain win and certainly not if leave win, so I'm reduced to hoping Boris or whoever takes over doesn't try to change things up too much and, ideally, improves the competence a bit
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    Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited March 2016

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Would you bring back hanging for all murders (including suicide pacts gone wrong) or re-instate the 1957 Homicide Act? Or something else e.g. making it a defence to show that the victim was a lefty)?

    Your problem is that laws have to be written with the head, whilst conservative views are formed with the heart.

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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Roger said:

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Poor Steve Hilton. He spent years trying to make the Conservative Party appeal to a more progressive broad minded CIVILIZED voter
    Are suggesting Priti Patel is uncivilised?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    God bless TSE's puns and the subject of this thread, the heir apparent to the Baronetcy of Ballentaylor, in County Tipperary, and Ballylemon, in County Waterford
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Watching MOTD waiting for Marr.

    West Ham were robbed. That was never a penalty.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Anybody claiming Cameron lacks intelligence is plain silly, he's clearly highly intelligent. When his son died he handled enormous grief with great dignity, in public at least, and I admired him for that. Where he falls down is lack of judgement and a feel for ordinary people, he appointed Coulson to overcome that deficiency and it backfired spectacularly. Cameron might think that everybody goes skiing and has friends round for supper but they just don't, for the vast majority life is a drudge and Cameron and Osborne simply don't understand that. His PR stunts at football matches are pathetic.

    Cameron inspires loyalty in certain people, look at the fawning sycophancy from some on here. But the inherent flaw is that sycophants are weak, they need to be led and guided, if you surround yourself with friends and sycophants you think you're strong but you are weak.

    As for Hancock, the bloke epitomises everything the public loathe in politicians, he'd be a massive nail in the tory coffin.

    I don't see fawning sycophants on here, just people who (in the large) agree with what Cameron is doing. Is that so unreasonable?
    You clearly don't read all of the posts. I won't name names but there are several people who have stated they favour Leave but don't want to see Cameron resign ib perceived failure.

    Incidentally, what IS Cameron doing?
    I (marginally) prefer Leave and don't want Cameron to resign in perceived failure but will probably vote Leave as I see this issue as more important than today's politics. There will be people who (with very good reason) view the priority as the opposite.

    Imagine switching Cameron with other long-serving PMs. Thatcher did a lot of good but her legacy (and her party and what she stood by) was tarnished by the manner of her resigning in perceived failure in the end. On the other end of the spectrum lefties may think Blair did a lot of good (I don't see it) but the way he was forced out by Brown has led to a resurgence on the right and a destruction of the left.
    Fine, but you still didn't answer my question.

    Look, Cameron is brilliant at saying things, but he's not very good at doing things, which when the dust settles is what he'll be judged on. He's about to feel very lonely and exposed, let's see what he's made of.
    What question?

    I think Cameron has been very good at doing things. He has been a good Conservative PM in the form of stepping the state back and letting us get on with our lives without trying to micromanage everything from Whitehall.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Mr Jessop


    Yes, its not that straightforward, Cameron has said he's going, the referendum will be a natural route regardless of the outcome. This to me is another example of his poor judgement, he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career. Of course there's a very good chance he'll pull it off, but I bet he wishes he could wind the clock back and start again.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Priti Patel is clearly the optimal next leader of the Conservatives. Her, or Justine Greening.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Would you bring back hanging for all murders (including suicide pacts gone wrong) or re-instate the 1957 Homicide Act? Or something else e.g. making it a defence to show that the victim was a lefty)?

    Your problem is that laws have to be written with the head, whilst conservative views are formed with the heart.

    They aren't alone in that, the sides just pick different issues to ignore their heads on.

    Personally I ignore my head on economic policies as I don't understand it all anyway.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Would you bring back hanging for all murders (including suicide pacts gone wrong) or re-instate the 1957 Homicide Act? Or something else e.g. making it a defence to show that the victim was a lefty)?

    Your problem is that laws have to be written with the head, whilst conservative views are formed with the heart.

    So left wing views are not formed with the heart at all? Interesting ...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880

    Fine, but you still didn't answer my question.

    Look, Cameron is brilliant at saying things, but he's not very good at doing things, which when the dust settles is what he'll be judged on. He's about to feel very lonely and exposed, let's see what he's made of.

    I fear you'll be disappointed by any PM. They all have a history of saying they want to achieve things and underachieving. Mostly for good and understandable reasons: events and reality interfere with plans, and any gap between expectations and reality are highlighted by opponents.

    E.g. Blair and education, Cameron and immigration. I daresay people can produce example for Thatcher and Major as well.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Hancock seems to have corrected the frequent up and down movement of his arm and wrist during interviews which gave rise to his name of "handjob" in his early days.
    If this habit reoccurs under stress it could be very unflattering to any hopeful candidate for leader.
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    Roger said:

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Poor Steve Hilton. He spent years trying to make the Conservative Party appeal to a more progressive broad minded CIVILIZED voter
    Are suggesting Priti Patel is uncivilised?
    I can't speak for Roger but I am very happy to suggest that "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" is totally uncivilised and that both you and Ms Patel know it is.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Priti Patel is clearly the optimal next leader of the Conservatives. Her, or Justine Greening.

    Optimal for a Labour victory!
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Would you bring back hanging for all murders (including suicide pacts gone wrong) or re-instate the 1957 Homicide Act? Or something else e.g. making it a defence to show that the victim was a lefty)?

    Your problem is that laws have to be written with the head, whilst conservative views are formed with the heart.

    I see I've rattled your cage again, you do get cross very quickly don't you? It's a terrible affliction, frustration, brings out the worst in otherwise rational, decent people.

    I'm open to discussion about who we should kill, but I can think of several recent events where execution would be suitable.

    Incidentally, have you googled me lately?

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    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Would you bring back hanging for all murders (including suicide pacts gone wrong) or re-instate the 1957 Homicide Act? Or something else e.g. making it a defence to show that the victim was a lefty)?

    Your problem is that laws have to be written with the head, whilst conservative views are formed with the heart.

    So left wing views are not formed with the heart at all? Interesting ...
    I didn't say that or anything like it, as well you know. Stop behaving like a child.

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Dr Fox,

    I've just googled Priti Patel. I suggest she'd have the male vote sewn up. Or am I just being shallow as usual?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Dr. Foxinsox, optimal for the bank balance of Morris Dancer :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621

    Fine, but you still didn't answer my question.

    Look, Cameron is brilliant at saying things, but he's not very good at doing things, which when the dust settles is what he'll be judged on. He's about to feel very lonely and exposed, let's see what he's made of.

    I fear you'll be disappointed by any PM. They all have a history of saying they want to achieve things and underachieving. Mostly for good and understandable reasons: events and reality interfere with plans, and any gap between expectations and reality are highlighted by opponents.

    E.g. Blair and education, Cameron and immigration. I daresay people can produce example for Thatcher and Major as well.
    You mean thatcher wasn't perfect? Heresy! How can that be do when more than 20 years on people cannot stop trying to convince us of the right course by referencing what she would have done? It's not irritating at all either, pundits, I swear.

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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Roger said:

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Poor Steve Hilton. He spent years trying to make the Conservative Party appeal to a more progressive broad minded CIVILIZED voter
    Are suggesting Priti Patel is uncivilised?
    I can't speak for Roger but I am very happy to suggest that "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" is totally uncivilised and that both you and Ms Patel know it is.

    How very magnanimous for you to speak on behalf of myself and Mrs Patel, thank you.

    Despite (quite possibly because of) your handwringing, I'm very happy for us to execute child killers. If you'd like to visit a working mens club with me we'll do a survey if you like.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Incidentally for those looking at long-shots. Leicester City are pretty certain top 2 this season and have an excellent manager and sane owners who back him with plenty of money, as well as a team that has lost 4 League games in 12 months. Normally you would expect such a team to be priced at 3 or 4/1, but on Skybet at 50/1 to win next season. Looks like value to me! 80/1 on winning CL too :-)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Would you bring back hanging for all murders (including suicide pacts gone wrong) or re-instate the 1957 Homicide Act? Or something else e.g. making it a defence to show that the victim was a lefty)?

    Your problem is that laws have to be written with the head, whilst conservative views are formed with the heart.

    So left wing views are not formed with the heart at all? Interesting ...
    I didn't say that or anything like it, as well you know. Stop behaving like a child.

    You specifically said that conservative views are formed with the heart. Could have been clearer if you weren't trying to be specific.
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Fine, but you still didn't answer my question.

    Look, Cameron is brilliant at saying things, but he's not very good at doing things, which when the dust settles is what he'll be judged on. He's about to feel very lonely and exposed, let's see what he's made of.

    I fear you'll be disappointed by any PM. They all have a history of saying they want to achieve things and underachieving. Mostly for good and understandable reasons: events and reality interfere with plans, and any gap between expectations and reality are highlighted by opponents.

    E.g. Blair and education, Cameron and immigration. I daresay people can produce example for Thatcher and Major as well.
    You are exactly, and sadly, correct.

    My puzzlement, as I pointed out earlier, is with those who choose to believe them.

    Good post btw
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    On topic, it's an interesting call by TSE and there's probably good value in Hancock but it does rely on a vacancy opening up towards the end of the parliament. At the moment, he's far too junior.

    He'll also need to make a substantial name for himself in his own right. Being seen - rightly or wrongly - as anyone else's stooge would be fatal for his chances.

    But scanning across the current cabinet, while there are several who are potential successors, none really stands out as a clear heir apparent; the gap is there to be filled.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621
    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    I've just googled Priti Patel. I suggest she'd have the male vote sewn up. Or am I just being shallow as usual?

    I believe the acceptable way to not appear shallow would be to say she is telegenic. But I've heard she's actually pretty crap in interviews and the like. Running for leader would be a different experience and done of the other candidates aren't great at interviews either, Boris springs to mind, so maybe she woukd do ok on that score.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880

    Mr Jessop


    Yes, its not that straightforward, Cameron has said he's going, the referendum will be a natural route regardless of the outcome. This to me is another example of his poor judgement, he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career. Of course there's a very good chance he'll pull it off, but I bet he wishes he could wind the clock back and start again.

    "... he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career."

    Again, the same can be said for Brown, Blair, Major and Thatcher. If, at least, you don't like them.

    The story of Cameron's career has yet to be written. Time will tell if the EU referendum overshadows his victories.

    Personally, I think he will be a failure if the party shifts away from the centre ground towards the right. The core of his leadership has been an attempt to make the part electable, and there will be a black mark over him if the party shifts away from that. Note: that is not saying his successor has to follow Cameronism, whatever that is.
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    EPG said:

    God bless TSE's puns and the subject of this thread, the heir apparent to the Baronetcy of Ballentaylor, in County Tipperary, and Ballylemon, in County Waterford

    I was up until 2 am desperately trying to get in an Osborne Ultimatatum pun. I failed.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Mr Jessop


    Yes, its not that straightforward, Cameron has said he's going, the referendum will be a natural route regardless of the outcome. This to me is another example of his poor judgement, he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career. Of course there's a very good chance he'll pull it off, but I bet he wishes he could wind the clock back and start again.

    To paraphrase Thatcher there was no alternative. After 81 Tory MPs rebelled in order to vote for a referendum he has no choice but to pledge one. At least he honoured his pledge.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621

    EPG said:

    God bless TSE's puns and the subject of this thread, the heir apparent to the Baronetcy of Ballentaylor, in County Tipperary, and Ballylemon, in County Waterford

    I was up until 2 am desperately trying to get in an Osborne Ultimatatum pun. I failed.
    That you may have failed to get in a pun shocks and worries me more than any political happenings.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Fine, but you still didn't answer my question.

    Look, Cameron is brilliant at saying things, but he's not very good at doing things, which when the dust settles is what he'll be judged on. He's about to feel very lonely and exposed, let's see what he's made of.

    I fear you'll be disappointed by any PM. They all have a history of saying they want to achieve things and underachieving. Mostly for good and understandable reasons: events and reality interfere with plans, and any gap between expectations and reality are highlighted by opponents.

    E.g. Blair and education, Cameron and immigration. I daresay people can produce example for Thatcher and Major as well.
    You are exactly, and sadly, correct.

    My puzzlement, as I pointed out earlier, is with those who choose to believe them.

    Good post btw
    To me it seems entirely logical to support the one closest to your views.

    I disagree with Cameron on a number of things. Primarily I oppose his desire to reduce immigration and secondly am not convinced he made the right decisions over Europe. But in the scale of things looking at the big picture his views are the closest to mine of any PM or potential PM since Thatcher. We are much better off IMO with him in charge than Blair/Brown/Miliband/Davis/Corbyn etc
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Incidentally for those looking at long-shots. Leicester City are pretty certain top 2 this season and have an excellent manager and sane owners who back him with plenty of money, as well as a team that has lost 4 League games in 12 months. Normally you would expect such a team to be priced at 3 or 4/1, but on Skybet at 50/1 to win next season. Looks like value to me! 80/1 on winning CL too :-)

    Picture yourself in a boat on a river
    With tangerine trees and marmalade skies
    Somebody calls you, you answer quite slowly
    A girl with kaleidoscope eyes

    Cellophane flowers of yellow and green
    Towering over your head
    Look for the girl with the sun in her eyes
    And she's gone
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,916
    kle4 said:

    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    I've just googled Priti Patel. I suggest she'd have the male vote sewn up. Or am I just being shallow as usual?

    I believe the acceptable way to not appear shallow would be to say she is telegenic. But I've heard she's actually pretty crap in interviews and the like. Running for leader would be a different experience and done of the other candidates aren't great at interviews either, Boris springs to mind, so maybe she woukd do ok on that score.
    She can be a good constituency MP, and in my one experience of her in that role was more helpful and indeed thoughtful than I’d expected. However, her interviews aren’t good; she sticks hard to the party’s phrases ... "hard workimng families” and the like.
    Her interview at the time of Jeremy Corbyn’s election was a classic. I’ve rarely heard anything more wooden.
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    Roger said:

    btw I have zero knowledge of the tory leadership market but I'd be verey tempted to vote for Priti Patel. She really does come from an ordinary background, understands small businesses and is pro hanging, I'd be very happy with her, as I suspect would millions of natural conservatives.

    Poor Steve Hilton. He spent years trying to make the Conservative Party appeal to a more progressive broad minded CIVILIZED voter
    Are suggesting Priti Patel is uncivilised?
    I can't speak for Roger but I am very happy to suggest that "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" is totally uncivilised and that both you and Ms Patel know it is.

    How very magnanimous for you to speak on behalf of myself and Mrs Patel, thank you.

    Despite (quite possibly because of) your handwringing, I'm very happy for us to execute child killers. If you'd like to visit a working mens club with me we'll do a survey if you like.
    Would this visit be before or after they'd all had a few pints?

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    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    God bless TSE's puns and the subject of this thread, the heir apparent to the Baronetcy of Ballentaylor, in County Tipperary, and Ballylemon, in County Waterford

    I was up until 2 am desperately trying to get in an Osborne Ultimatatum pun. I failed.
    That you may have failed to get in a pun shocks and worries me more than any political happenings.
    But I got in reference to three out of the four Bourne movies into the headline is still an achievement.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Why should Osborne abandon his leadership hopes just because Ian Duncan Shit wants him to ?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Mr Jessop


    Yes, its not that straightforward, Cameron has said he's going, the referendum will be a natural route regardless of the outcome. This to me is another example of his poor judgement, he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career. Of course there's a very good chance he'll pull it off, but I bet he wishes he could wind the clock back and start again.

    "... he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career."

    Again, the same can be said for Brown, Blair, Major and Thatcher. If, at least, you don't like them.

    The story of Cameron's career has yet to be written. Time will tell if the EU referendum overshadows his victories.

    Personally, I think he will be a failure if the party shifts away from the centre ground towards the right. The core of his leadership has been an attempt to make the part electable, and there will be a black mark over him if the party shifts away from that. Note: that is not saying his successor has to follow Cameronism, whatever that is.
    That cuts both ways. Is there a black mark over Blair for the fact the party became unelectable after him or does it provide his example as the one where the party was electable and could win which should be followed once the party regains its sanity?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Eagles, you mean like Hannibal winning at Trebia, Trasimene and Cannae, but losing at Zama? :p
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Matthew Hancock would be awful, simply terrible as leader. I'd vote for Al الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام‎ Jezza over that prick.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880

    Fine, but you still didn't answer my question.

    Look, Cameron is brilliant at saying things, but he's not very good at doing things, which when the dust settles is what he'll be judged on. He's about to feel very lonely and exposed, let's see what he's made of.

    I fear you'll be disappointed by any PM. They all have a history of saying they want to achieve things and underachieving. Mostly for good and understandable reasons: events and reality interfere with plans, and any gap between expectations and reality are highlighted by opponents.

    E.g. Blair and education, Cameron and immigration. I daresay people can produce example for Thatcher and Major as well.
    You are exactly, and sadly, correct.

    My puzzlement, as I pointed out earlier, is with those who choose to believe them.

    Good post btw
    Thanks. Anything a senior politician says about future plans has to be seen as a stated intent. They are lying if what they say is not their real stated intent, or if they don't make any progress towards that intent.

    But trying and failing is not, in itself, lying. It's incompetence or just reality biting, depending on whether you give them some latitude or not.

    As an example; a PM could stand up and say: "We will to enact a law to do x." They put a law in front of the house that more or less does x, and it gets voted down. The mistake there is to say "will", instead of "intend", but people who view the politician poorly will mix those up anyway.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,621
    Pulpstar said:

    Why should Osborne abandon his leadership hopes just because Ian Duncan Shit wants him to ?

    Not just because of that, but because it weakens his position with MPs, and in any case his ambitions rely on being lucky withinthe world economy, that is his position was already weak.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,880

    Mr Jessop


    Yes, its not that straightforward, Cameron has said he's going, the referendum will be a natural route regardless of the outcome. This to me is another example of his poor judgement, he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career. Of course there's a very good chance he'll pull it off, but I bet he wishes he could wind the clock back and start again.

    "... he has allowed a situation, largely out of his control, to define his whole career."

    Again, the same can be said for Brown, Blair, Major and Thatcher. If, at least, you don't like them.

    The story of Cameron's career has yet to be written. Time will tell if the EU referendum overshadows his victories.

    Personally, I think he will be a failure if the party shifts away from the centre ground towards the right. The core of his leadership has been an attempt to make the part electable, and there will be a black mark over him if the party shifts away from that. Note: that is not saying his successor has to follow Cameronism, whatever that is.
    That cuts both ways. Is there a black mark over Blair for the fact the party became unelectable after him or does it provide his example as the one where the party was electable and could win which should be followed once the party regains its sanity?
    It will depend on how favourably you view him. His mistake was in not removing Briwn as chancellor between 2001 and 2005. even that might not have been enough to stop the forces of evil. ;)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Matt Hancock makes Ed Miliband look like Bear Grylls.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    I've just googled Priti Patel. I suggest she'd have the male vote sewn up. Or am I just being shallow as usual?

    I believe the acceptable way to not appear shallow would be to say she is telegenic. But I've heard she's actually pretty crap in interviews and the like. Running for leader would be a different experience and done of the other candidates aren't great at interviews either, Boris springs to mind, so maybe she woukd do ok on that score.
    Priti is not my cup of tea. Her political views aside, she has a cold persona that comes across very poorly in interviews. I am not too bothered by her views on capital punishment, as it would never get through parliament. Support for her does seem to arise from a desire for tokenism rather than any real star quality.

    In terms of eye candy, I would commend Stella Creasy, or for those who travel on the other bus Stephen Crabb. Past experience of such fellows is that expressed views fade over time.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Pulpstar said:

    Why should Osborne abandon his leadership hopes just because Ian Duncan Shit wants him to ?

    Good question. I thought it must be part of Tory etiquette that normal people weren't privy to
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    IDS is the living proof that Tories are a totally separate breed of sentient beings.

    Could any other group anywhere ever have voted to make him their leader?

    Be fair Roger, he was a better leader than Corbyn is. IDS comes across as faintly dim and rather useless, while Corbyn is just terrifying.

    I know you are no fan of Corbyn, before you say it. But the implication that no other group could make such a cretinous mistake is one that was firmly disproved seven months ago.
    Similar to Corbyn in that it was an insult to the electorate to ask them to take him seriously as a potential Prime Minister.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Why should Osborne abandon his leadership hopes just because Ian Duncan Shit wants him to ?

    He shouldn't because of IDS.

    But because he's unpopular with party members, and the electorate. Osborne as leader would be a liability. The Tories are unlikely to win a majority with him in charge. Not now, with the reputation he's acquired.

    I'd almost prefer Corbyn. At least he's up front about fr@cking you over, rather than a devious Brown look-a-like.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tim Shipman
    Ouch. Minister compares George Osborne to the child catcher in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang. https://t.co/K7RutcHT9F https://t.co/J9CnsvaKQQ
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Btw on this "despite recent events the Tories still retain their blood lust for power" - you could have fooled me.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Another confused non-Tory here. I mean, if Osborne thought it was hopeless obviously he wouldn't stand, so no news there. And obviously the right aren't going to vote for him - their tradition is to put up their own candidate who is genuinely right-wing but also crap at politics, who sometimes accidentally wins. So what's actually changed here?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    watford30 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why should Osborne abandon his leadership hopes just because Ian Duncan Shit wants him to ?

    He shouldn't because of IDS.

    But because he's unpopular with party members, and the electorate. Osborne as leader would be a liability. The Tories are unlikely to win a majority with him in charge. Not now, with the reputation he's acquired.

    I'd almost prefer Corbyn. At least he's up front about fr@cking you over, rather than a devious Brown look-a-like.
    It is hard to see who Osborne is popular with! Not going to gain votes from the centre either. Doomed even before it gets to a party vote.
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