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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll for ITV

Remain” leads “Leave” by seven points according to the latest ComRes poll for ITV News (fieldwork conducted over the weekend, before the events in Brussels).

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Fascinating
  • if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    The chappy who ran off from the airport left the biggest bomb undetonated, after shoving it away.

    Bottled it at the last moment by the looks of it - thankfully.

    I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacks
    It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.

    How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.
    What is the world coming to...you just can't get the Jahadi's these days...no wonder ISIS are importing so many via Eastern Europe....
  • Can I bet on how many 000s of posts here trash this poll?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016

    if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

    Feels to me like the polling companies as a whole have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....depending on phone, internet, etc etc etc...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Can I bet on how many 000s of posts here trash this poll?


    Remain - still in lead.

    Leave - trending towards them.

    What's not to like?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited March 2016

    if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

    Feels to me like the polling companies have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....
    The thing that is most frightening pollsters about this referendum is turnout.

    They could be even more wrong on the final result than the GE, and this is a binary choice election
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016

    if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

    Feels to me like the polling companies have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....
    The thing that is most frightening pollsters about this referendum is turnout.

    They could be even more wrong on the final result than the GE, and this is a binary choice election
    Again sounds like the Belgium security services problem...we know we have f##king loads of terrorist sympthaziers, we just have no idea who they are and if they will turn out...
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    Opinion polls so far out have some, but limited, value. The Norpoth model has Trump beating Sanders 58 to 42, HRC by 52.5 to 47.5. Kasich has only won one primary and struggles to get in the 20s in most places.

    L.A.Times poll 3/25/80 Favorables: Anderson 68%; Kennedy 60%; Carter 51%; Ronald Reagan 30%.
    In March 1980, Reagan was trailing Carter by 15 pts.
    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/337295/

    As an outsider Trump's path is similar to Reagan's, HRC's problem is she is already struggling in the polls, especially in the key swing states. All down hill from here.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Since 39% (2 in 5) may change their mind, there is a lot of uncertainty.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    FPT
    JackW said:

    Why will it be different?

    Will the Trumpster suddenly find humility, grace and a countenance befitting the POTUS

    To a large extent, yes.
    JackW said:


    More importantly where will Trump find the extra voters outside of his base? There are not enough angry white working class males to fill the gap.

    He will attack her from the left while undermining the legitimacy of her identity politics driven demographic advantages.

    The polling shows that Clinton is beatable by a generic Republican candidate. Trump only has to detoxify himself sufficiently to make the election a referendum on Clinton which she will lose.
  • if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

    Feels to me like the polling companies have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....
    The thing that is most frightening pollsters about this referendum is turnout.

    They could be even more wrong on the final result than the GE, and this is a binary choice election
    Again sounds like the Beligum security services problem...we know we have f##king loads of terrorist sympthaziers, we just have no idea about turn out...
    I can't see Indyref levels of turnout.

    I think it'll be closer to a GE turnout than the AV referendum turnout
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016

    if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

    Feels to me like the polling companies have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....
    The thing that is most frightening pollsters about this referendum is turnout.

    They could be even more wrong on the final result than the GE, and this is a binary choice election
    Again sounds like the Beligum security services problem...we know we have f##king loads of terrorist sympthaziers, we just have no idea about turn out...
    I can't see Indyref levels of turnout.

    I think it'll be closer to a GE turnout than the AV referendum turnout
    Agreed. The amount of unknowns being recorded at this moment in time also extremely high, and who knows how they will really break.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Can I bet on how many 000s of posts here trash this poll?


    Remain - still in lead.

    Leave - trending towards them.

    What's not to like?

    Please remember how poor Basil was abused on here, having to shift the goalposts time and time again as we waited for crossover.

    When, in fact, crossover had happened long before.

    If the same holds true, it could be good for leave.

    If. It could equally work the other way.

    Since Basil is obviously England, we need a Euro-equivalent. How about Freddie Frog?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Monmouth

    Trump 41 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 18 - Sample 353
    Clinton 55 .. Sanders 37 - Sample 391

    http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d0335f8b-d571-463c-88ec-729620d17068.pdf
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    With those numbers and GE type turnout (which is skewed to old people) Leave will come close to victory.

    The wind is blowing on the sails of Leave, they are moving up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    FPT: Mr. Jessop, interesting letter. Good to see the drivers have more sense about them than the clownish bigwigs.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    Old people support Leave, young people support Remain, any deviation from his fact is a methodology problem.
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467

    I find this all tremendously patronising re identity politics, but interesting that this is in the Guardian

    Over the past couple of months I’ve managed to shock some people by telling them I’m thinking of voting for Brexit. It seems black voters are supposed to be in favour of staying in the European Union. A report in the Times, though, suggests that’s not necessarily the case, and there are plenty of BAME votes in play if the out campaign gets its arguments straight.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/22/black-voting-brexit-out-campaign

    Yes my token black friend, who also conveniently doubles up as my token labour supporting friend, is a firm leave. As a young Londoner like myself, he sees Brexit as an opportunity to raise wages, job opportunities, living standards and lower housing costs.

    Leave will win.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Labour List reckon Corbyn had a good outing at PMQs. >> Verdict: Corbyn drags Cameron towards contrition https://t.co/NqiCgURxAe
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    JackW said:


    The vast majority of Sanders voters will vote for Clinton. Your view was much speculated upon in 08 in a similar fashion when Obama defeated Clinton. They came back to the Democrat fold. The rest as they say ....

    The analogy with the present election is that the NeverTrump Republicans will all come back into the fold for the General Election.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: No 10 pretty punchy on doctors' strike: "This is an escalation that is desperate and irresponsible and will inevitably impact on patients."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    Fascinating

    "It's life polling, Jim, but not as we know it."
  • Can I bet on how many 000s of posts here trash this poll?

    Knowing you, I'd place your bet at 999 out of 1000.
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    edited March 2016

    JackW said:


    The vast majority of Sanders voters will vote for Clinton. Your view was much speculated upon in 08 in a similar fashion when Obama defeated Clinton. They came back to the Democrat fold. The rest as they say ....

    The analogy with the present election is that the NeverTrump Republicans will all come back into the fold for the General Election.
    Sanders voters are disgusted with the status quo regarding DC corruption, foreign policy etc., there is no analogy to 08 for the Dems. For the Republicans rallying around the eventual nominee, perhaps, it is a change election.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jim Waterson
    Mike Gapes, live from hospital, reckons an induced coma saved him from the hostile list. https://t.co/jz7w5cH4Po https://t.co/kewxVu6jci
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    Great stuff, as usual.

    That Comres 45+ weighting is a complete and utter shocker.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    LondonBob said:

    JackW said:


    The vast majority of Sanders voters will vote for Clinton. Your view was much speculated upon in 08 in a similar fashion when Obama defeated Clinton. They came back to the Democrat fold. The rest as they say ....

    The analogy with the present election is that the NeverTrump Republicans will all come back into the fold for the General Election.
    Sanders voters are disgusted with the status quo regarding DC corruption, foreign policy etc., there is no analogy to 08 for the Dems. For the Republicans rallying around the eventual nominee, perhaps.
    There is always talk of "cleaning up Washington" round about this time in the cycle. Always.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911
    edited March 2016
    whistling innocently...

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Speedy said:

    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    Old people support Leave, young people support Remain, any deviation from his fact is a methodology problem.
    Young people change their minds, oldies don't. Remain is going to lose, handily.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    FPT

    JackW said:

    Why will it be different?

    Will the Trumpster suddenly find humility, grace and a countenance befitting the POTUS

    To a large extent, yes.
    JackW said:


    More importantly where will Trump find the extra voters outside of his base? There are not enough angry white working class males to fill the gap.

    He will attack her from the left while undermining the legitimacy of her identity politics driven demographic advantages.

    The polling shows that Clinton is beatable by a generic Republican candidate. Trump only has to detoxify himself sufficiently to make the election a referendum on Clinton which she will lose.
    If Trump is anything he is not a generic Republican candidate. It's the reason why he's winning the nomination. Your assumption that Trump "only has to detoxify" is similar to Ed only has to eat a bacon sandwich with aplomb.

    Demographics are also not abstract concepts. It's the reason why important swing states are trending blue and why the "identity politics" see Trump losing massively with hispanics, AA and at a significant disadvantage with women. Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Jim Waterson
    Mike Gapes, live from hospital, reckons an induced coma saved him from the hostile list. https://t.co/jz7w5cH4Po https://t.co/kewxVu6jci

    lol
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    PA
    #Breaking Student Suhaib Majeed is convicted at the Old Bailey of plotting to kill soldiers, police officers and civilians in shootings

    Court News
    Suhaib Majeed and Tarik 'the sugeon' Hassane, who went to the same west London Mosque as Jihadi John, face life for IS terror plot
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Can I bet on how many 000s of posts here trash this poll?

    Knowing you, I'd place your bet at 999 out of 1000.
    Pollsters have been pretty crap over the last year. They are all nonsense. Just keep on campaigning and wait for the real poll. Don't waste time studying tea leaves, chicken entrails or poll internals.
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    http://www.allenbwest.com/2016/03/whoa-the-view-hosts-just-made-stunning-admission-about-donald-trump/

    The slow process of winning people over and negating any fears in action. Plenty of time for Trump to win people over, as Reagan demonstrated.
  • MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I had a chat with someone about this, he posited a theory, which I hadn't thought about.

    There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.

    Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.

    They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    A list categorising Labour MPs as supportive or hostile of Jeremy Corbyn did not "originate" from his office, the Labour leader's spokesman has said.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Hmm. A lot of good for Leave mood music is playing. But I remain unconvinced (for now).

    Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.

    Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Hmm. A lot of good for Leave mood music is playing. But I remain unconvinced (for now).

    Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.

    Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.

    But how will we cope with the Belgium refuse to share their intelligence on terrorists....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I had a chat with someone about this, he posited a theory, which I hadn't thought about.

    There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.

    Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.

    They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.
    I guess, but the Tory remainers seem the most flaky, maybe that's similar to the Labour leavers. It just surprises me that the flaky leavers outnumber the flaky remainers, it's not something I've come across.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, I'm highly likely to vote Leave, so you need not convince me. But I think a lot of floating voters and the politically disinterested, who are displeased with and grumpy about the EU, will drift back to Remain as the day comes nearer and concerns about the chaos [as Remain would describe it] of leaving become very real.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I had a chat with someone about this, he posited a theory, which I hadn't thought about.

    There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.

    Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.

    They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.
    Leave in Silence?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    JackW said:

    Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?

    There's absolutely no comparison between McCain or Romney and Trump.

    Trump's name has been synonymous with success and wealth in black hip-hop culture for years. He has experience and contacts across the entertainment business and will be able to turn out unexpected celebrity endorsements. Clinton will be forced to spend far too much time fighting on turf that will not help her with the voters she needs to turn out for her to win.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Hmm. A lot of good for Leave mood music is playing. But I remain unconvinced (for now).

    Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.

    Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.

    Remain grates upon the English spirit, Leave feels smooth and ingrained. Do you not agree?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Turnout helps Remain according to Comres? Interesting, that's different to what keeps getting suggested in the comments here ...
  • Molenbeek, by a former resident:

    How did Molenbeek become Europe’s jihadi base? Essentially, it has to do with Belgium’s messy governance and the culture of denial that pervades the debate about Islam in the country. Molenbeek is a vibrant community, with narrow streets and a busy street life. There is a teahouse on every corner, a quiet mosque on every block, where people can congregate undisturbed. There are cheap apartments galore, no questions asked. Just like the guerrilla can hide in the jungle, jihadis feel safe in the disorganized Kashba of Molenbeek. The highway and the city’s busiest international railroad station are a stone’s throw away. It’s the perfect logistical base.

    ... The lack of a strong, central authority may be one of the many quirks of this sometimes charmingly dysfunctional country, .... also creates the perfect breeding ground for potential terrorists.

    But the most important factor is Belgium’s culture of denial. The country’s political debate has been dominated by a complacent progressive elite that firmly believes society can be designed and planned. Observers who point to unpleasant truths such as the high incidence of crime among Moroccan youth and violent tendencies in radical Islam are accused of being propagandists of the extreme-right, and are subsequently ignored and ostracized.


    http://www.politico.eu/article/molenbeek-broke-my-heart-radicalization-suburb-brussels-gentrification/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    JackW said:

    Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?

    There's absolutely no comparison between McCain or Romney and Trump.

    Trump's name has been synonymous with success and wealth in black hip-hop culture for years. He has experience and contacts across the entertainment business and will be able to turn out unexpected celebrity endorsements. Clinton will be forced to spend far too much time fighting on turf that will not help her with the voters she needs to turn out for her to win.
    Jon Oliver told a funny story the other day about his silly "Make Donald Drumpf Again" hats...apparently Jay-Z rang up and said I want a hat...and they said well they are going quickly, but some are still available to buy on the website...and he said no I want one...as Jon Oliver said if they had given him one and he wears it in public, better still Beyonce, he would stop being the host of a tv show rather the demand would be so high, he would be the boss of a hat company...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I had a chat with someone about this, he posited a theory, which I hadn't thought about.

    There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.

    Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.

    They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.
    A dear friend of mine (not Mrs J) is 100% solid remain. She's almost an anti-UKIPper, to the extent that I fear if she was ever to meet a Kipper there would be a massive explosion in which both parti(cl)es are annihilated.

    She trots out all the usual arguments, e.g. 'the EU has prevented war', 'millions of jobs at stake', etc, etc. And like hardcore leavers, *nothing* will convince her otherwise.

    I reckon there are lots like her. They're just too busy to argue on t'Internet ... ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2016

    Molenbeek, by a former resident:

    How did Molenbeek become Europe’s jihadi base? Essentially, it has to do with Belgium’s messy governance and the culture of denial that pervades the debate about Islam in the country. Molenbeek is a vibrant community, with narrow streets and a busy street life. There is a teahouse on every corner, a quiet mosque on every block, where people can congregate undisturbed. There are cheap apartments galore, no questions asked. Just like the guerrilla can hide in the jungle, jihadis feel safe in the disorganized Kashba of Molenbeek. The highway and the city’s busiest international railroad station are a stone’s throw away. It’s the perfect logistical base.

    ... The lack of a strong, central authority may be one of the many quirks of this sometimes charmingly dysfunctional country, .... also creates the perfect breeding ground for potential terrorists.

    But the most important factor is Belgium’s culture of denial. The country’s political debate has been dominated by a complacent progressive elite that firmly believes society can be designed and planned. Observers who point to unpleasant truths such as the high incidence of crime among Moroccan youth and violent tendencies in radical Islam are accused of being propagandists of the extreme-right, and are subsequently ignored and ostracized.


    http://www.politico.eu/article/molenbeek-broke-my-heart-radicalization-suburb-brussels-gentrification/

    On CH4 last night, a journalist also said there was a feeling in the authorities that they had some sort of "understanding" with the Jahadi elements. If they didn't bother them too much, the Jahadi's wouldn't bring terrorism to Belgium.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    Hmm. A lot of good for Leave mood music is playing. But I remain unconvinced (for now).

    Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.

    Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.

    Mr Dancer,

    Fear of the unknown could easily apply to us remaining in the EU. What kind of EU will there be in 10 years? 20 years?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/anti-corbyn-labour-mps?utm_term=.osZyr4xRE
    Labour MPs who oppose Jeremy Corbyn have been left disappointed after a list ranking their loyalty, allegedly produced by the leader’s office, failed to put them in the “hostile” category.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

    Or the Firemen strike under Blair....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I've been pointing out for ages that the Leave camp is winning C2DEs who don't vote while the Remain camp is winning ABC1s who do vote.

    It's not as simple as looking at old versus young as even a quarter of the elderly don't vote. Elderly ABC1s will turnout, a lot of elderly C2DEs don't - and they're polling leave.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

    Will there be a remake of Billy Ellliot?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I had a chat with someone about this, he posited a theory, which I hadn't thought about.

    There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.

    Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.

    They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.
    I guess, but the Tory remainers seem the most flaky, maybe that's similar to the Labour leavers. It just surprises me that the flaky leavers outnumber the flaky remainers, it's not something I've come across.
    I know. But before last year's GE who could have predicted UKIP would cause more damage to Labour than the Tories?
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    Of course in 08 and 12 Obama was the antiwar candidate. This time Trump will be.

    In 12 Romney repulsed the blue collar white workers in the Rust Belt in particular, but really across the nation, leading to a catastrophically low non college educated whites turnout of just 57%. Trump's strength is with these voters.

    In 08 and 12 Obama drove a historically high turnout amongst blacks, won't happen this time.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?

    There's absolutely no comparison between McCain or Romney and Trump.

    Trump's name has been synonymous with success and wealth in black hip-hop culture for years. He has experience and contacts across the entertainment business and will be able to turn out unexpected celebrity endorsements. Clinton will be forced to spend far too much time fighting on turf that will not help her with the voters she needs to turn out for her to win.
    Trump is certainly synonymous with many things ensuring his negatives are only slightly better than @TSE's view of Mark Reckless.

    It certainly took an effort for the GOP to come up with a candidate held in a worse light than Clinton. But one thing over the past decade you may rely on the Republican Party is that they have developed an innate ability to cock-up POTUS elections.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The future of the EU isn't an unknown - it is very clear where it is headed, and we don't want to go there.

    That is really all there is to this referendum. It's time to shake hands, dissolve a partnership that has run its course, and go our separate ways.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Prasannan, I agree, but that's not an intuitive position to hold. People think Remain means the status quo and Leave means change.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited March 2016

    Hmm. A lot of good for Leave mood music is playing. But I remain unconvinced (for now).

    Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.

    Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.

    Mr Dancer,

    Fear of the unknown could easily apply to us remaining in the EU. What kind of EU will there be in 10 years? 20 years?
    Your post indicates why that isn't quite true: the fears of reaming in the EU are in the medium- and long-term. The fears about Brexit are much more immediate.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

    You overrate the importance of these arrogant, greedy and lazy medics. The strike by these neophyte quacks might actually save some lives.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Isn't the ring leader just found guilty of terrorist offences yet another former student at a London university?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

    I think you are wrong , public opinion will remain backing the doctors . An incident as you envisage would see public opinion view the government and Hunt in particular as to be at fault for its intransigence . Playing politics with peoples lives and those of their relatives is a no brain loser .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Dr. Prasannan, I agree, but that's not an intuitive position to hold. People think Remain means the status quo and Leave means change.

    The problem is that Remain can engage our primeval brain stem very easily through Project Fear. It's almost a reflexive fight or flight response. It's emotional, visceral and automatic. This will occur subliminally without us even noticing, which is why so many Leavers are starting to get flaky.

    That can be overcome but requires us to engage our much more rational neo-cortex part of our brain, which is much harder work as a conscious decision needs to be made to use it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I had a chat with someone about this, he posited a theory, which I hadn't thought about.

    There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.

    Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.

    They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.
    I guess, but the Tory remainers seem the most flaky, maybe that's similar to the Labour leavers. It just surprises me that the flaky leavers outnumber the flaky remainers, it's not something I've come across.
    I know. But before last year's GE who could have predicted UKIP would cause more damage to Labour than the Tories?
    A lot of us on here were saying it!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Blimey

    Patrick OFlynn
    If you disagree with the suspension of Suzanne Evans please sign this petition calling for it to be rescinded https://t.co/8vPeaA4W8Q
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited March 2016
    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-states-betting?ev_oc_grp_ids=2222314

    Florida @ Evens (Democrats) (On at 11-10)
    North Carolina 6-4 (Democrats) (On at 8-5)

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winning-party
    Overall GOP @ 9-4 (Sort of on this for loads already)

    Look to be incorrectly correlated to me.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'the fears of reaming in the EU are in the medium- and long-term'

    It won't be anything like 10-20 years before the EU becomes intolerable for the UK. More like 3-5.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Bad news for the "they took err jerrbs" brigade
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

    Rubio came 3rd there.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

    Rubio came 3rd there.
    By people who know he's withdrawn?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Pulpstar said:

    Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

    Rubio came 3rd there.
    Mental image I didn't need.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Freggles, can't speak for other likely Leave voters, but that's not an argument I've made. The key is sovereignty and accountability, as well as the EU heading in a way that is not in the UK's interest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    LondonBob said:

    Of course in 08 and 12 Obama was the antiwar candidate. This time Trump will be.

    Yes, and it takes some positioning skill to be simultaneously the antiwar candidate and also the crush ISIS candidate.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

    I think you are wrong , public opinion will remain backing the doctors . An incident as you envisage would see public opinion view the government and Hunt in particular as to be at fault for its intransigence . Playing politics with peoples lives and those of their relatives is a no brain loser .
    But Hunt isn't playing politics with anyone's lives, he's changing payment rates for Saturdays. Big deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Pulpstar said:

    Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

    Rubio came 3rd there.
    By people who know he's withdrawn?
    He did very well in the early voting, Kasich couldn't overtake him on election day.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.
    Not this one:
    "In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I've been pointing out for ages that the Leave camp is winning C2DEs who don't vote while the Remain camp is winning ABC1s who do vote.

    It's not as simple as looking at old versus young as even a quarter of the elderly don't vote. Elderly ABC1s will turnout, a lot of elderly C2DEs don't - and they're polling leave.
    Elderly ABC1's will still vote Leave. albeit by a lower margin than elderly C2DE's.

    The voters with the highest turnout are white, 55+, who own their own homes outright. Currently, they favour Leave.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

    Rubio came 3rd there.
    By people who know he's withdrawn?
    He did very well in the early voting, Kasich couldn't overtake him on election day.
    OK, so, question then, is that that the only state that will have had significant early voters before Rubio dropped out?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.
    But self-reported certainty to vote is notoriously flawed though isn't it? More people typically report themselves as certain to vote than actually do vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    LondonBob said:

    Opinion polls so far out have some, but limited, value. The Norpoth model has Trump beating Sanders 58 to 42, HRC by 52.5 to 47.5. Kasich has only won one primary and struggles to get in the 20s in most places.

    L.A.Times poll 3/25/80 Favorables: Anderson 68%; Kennedy 60%; Carter 51%; Ronald Reagan 30%.
    In March 1980, Reagan was trailing Carter by 15 pts.
    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/337295/

    As an outsider Trump's path is similar to Reagan's, HRC's problem is she is already struggling in the polls, especially in the key swing states. All down hill from here.

    Rubbish Reagan was likeable and optimistic and polite and spoke well, Trump is dislikeable, rude and angry. Hillary is also more Nixon 1968 than Carter 1976
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnmep

    If you disagree with the suspension of Suzanne Evans please sign this petition calling for it to be rescinded

    That highlights even more how inept Norman Smith's interview was this morning. He only asked a final softball question about Evans and wasted the rest of the time with false indignation about Brussels.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    runnymede said:

    'the fears of reaming in the EU are in the medium- and long-term'

    It won't be anything like 10-20 years before the EU becomes intolerable for the UK. More like 3-5.

    I think you're very wrong. It may become intolerable for individuals in the UK (in fact, for many it already is), but that does not mean it will be for the country as a whole.

    As an aside, I reckon if we don't vote to leave, then another country will go through exactly the same process as we are. It might even be one of the larger countries such as France. How the EU reacts to that will be interesting.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited March 2016

    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

    I think you are wrong , public opinion will remain backing the doctors . An incident as you envisage would see public opinion view the government and Hunt in particular as to be at fault for its intransigence . Playing politics with peoples lives and those of their relatives is a no brain loser .
    But Hunt isn't playing politics with anyone's lives, he's changing payment rates for Saturdays. Big deal.
    As a pro government lackey , you may think that but since the dispute began the numbers agreeing with that view point has fallen in every poll and support for the junior doctors has risen .
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I've been pointing out for ages that the Leave camp is winning C2DEs who don't vote while the Remain camp is winning ABC1s who do vote.

    It's not as simple as looking at old versus young as even a quarter of the elderly don't vote. Elderly ABC1s will turnout, a lot of elderly C2DEs don't - and they're polling leave.
    Elderly ABC1's will still vote Leave. albeit by a lower margin than elderly C2DE's.

    The voters with the highest turnout are white, 55+, who own their own homes outright. Currently, they favour Leave.
    Indeed elderly ABC1s will vote Leave by a lower margin than elderly C2DEs
    While simultaneously young ABC1s will vote Remain by a higher margin than young C2DEs.

    Both of which will assist Remain compared to just looking at age alone. White 55+ homeowners do have the highest turnout but won't form 51% of the vote on their own.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

    I've been pointing out for ages that the Leave camp is winning C2DEs who don't vote while the Remain camp is winning ABC1s who do vote.

    It's not as simple as looking at old versus young as even a quarter of the elderly don't vote. Elderly ABC1s will turnout, a lot of elderly C2DEs don't - and they're polling leave.
    Elderly ABC1's will still vote Leave. albeit by a lower margin than elderly C2DE's.

    The voters with the highest turnout are white, 55+, who own their own homes outright. Currently, they favour Leave.
    DEs favour Leave and rent they are less likely to turn out than middle-class mortgage payers who back Remain
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2016
    LondonBob said:

    Of course in 08 and 12 Obama was the antiwar candidate. This time Trump will be.

    In 12 Romney repulsed the blue collar white workers in the Rust Belt in particular, but really across the nation, leading to a catastrophically low non college educated whites turnout of just 57%. Trump's strength is with these voters.

    In 08 and 12 Obama drove a historically high turnout amongst blacks, won't happen this time.

    Romney won suburban whites by the biggest margin since 1988, Trump will not. Hispanic turnout will be up on 2012 to vote against Trump
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.
    Not this one:
    "In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
    I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

    I think you are wrong , public opinion will remain backing the doctors . An incident as you envisage would see public opinion view the government and Hunt in particular as to be at fault for its intransigence . Playing politics with peoples lives and those of their relatives is a no brain loser .
    But Hunt isn't playing politics with anyone's lives, he's changing payment rates for Saturdays. Big deal.
    As a pro government lackey , you may think that but since the dispute began the numbers agreeing with that view point has fallen in every poll and support got the junior doctors has risen .
    Indeed it has when the doctors were saying "we're compassionate medics who won't risk lives so we are providing emergency cover even though we're striking".

    Saying "our pay rate for Saturdays is more important than even emergencies" is a complete reversal of messaging.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    You mean you hope I'm wrong, I think.

    btw I think your scenario re. France or another large country moving close to EU exit is pretty fanciful. There is nothing like the animus against the EU that there is in the UK in any of the other major member states.

    The only other EU member I could see conceivably leaving, or threatening to do so, in the next few years is Hungary.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.
    But self-reported certainty to vote is notoriously flawed though isn't it? More people typically report themselves as certain to vote than actually do vote.
    Indeed so. But, that doesn't alter the fact that there's a gap in enthusiasm between the two sides. Probably Leave supporters overstate their readiness to vote, but then so do Remain supporters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited March 2016
    Mr. Glenn, many journalists are berks. The BBC had one such chap asking if we could ever be completely safe.

    Yes, pixiepants. All you have to do is wave a magic wand, squeeze your eyes tight shut and wish very hard and you'll be safe. Promise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

    Rubio came 3rd there.
    By people who know he's withdrawn?
    He did very well in the early voting, Kasich couldn't overtake him on election day.
    OK, so, question then, is that that the only state that will have had significant early voters before Rubio dropped out?
    I think so - Wisconsin early voting started Monday, no early voting in New York and the rest are a way into the future.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    It all depends on who you believe.

    Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

    ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

    All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.
    Not this one:
    "In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
    I believe they aren't being asked about certainty to vote. The pollster is making an assumption that patterns of turnout will match the patterns of turnout at the general election.
    How do you interpret this?
    "The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"
This discussion has been closed.